Best US Cities to Buy Rental Income Properties 2018 to 2020

Hottest Cities for Real Estate Investment 2018

Which are the Best Cities to Buy Real Estate?

It’s a rosy outlook for the housing markets in America and anyone buying real estate. Prices have moderated, new city markets are catching investor’s attention. However do you know which are the best cities to invest in real estate in 2018

Do you have a strategy to buy in the best cities, use a property management company or use property management software to run your portfolio.

You’re just about set to make 2018 a great investment year. Have you looked at the forms of property investment should you choose — rental income suites, apartment buildings, or student housing reits? Open your mind the right type of property investment in the right city will outperform everything else.




Which cities and states offer the best employment outlook, lowest taxes, regulations, large millennial population, and a pro business climate? Florida, California, Michigan, Colorado, Miami FloridaBoston, Bay Area, New York , Massachusetts, or is it Ohio and Michigan?

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The most recent update on hot investment cities (average profit US-wide was at $336,000) for sellers still has San Francisco as the tops.  And San Francisco Sunnyvale San Jose might be tops due to high rental prices, lack of housing and land, silicon valley paychecks, and an improving economy means there’s no bubble and no crash possible.

But the Bay Area isn’t the only city with potential.  Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Fort Worth are getting special attention these days. Texas is growing. Michigan has huge potential. Even Boston has potential. Businesses are relocating to these cities for a lot of reasons.

In this era of investment, the best property investments may be in other cities. Even if you intend to stay close to home, knowing what’s going on in other states might provide a superior return on investment.

As you may have read in my very popular post on US Housing Predictions for 2018 to 2020, the US housing market is hot and some cities are hotter than others. No housing crash is forecasted. The list below of the top 80 cities to invest in real estate represent your best opportunities for high returns. Even normally depressed quiet markets are coming to life and beginning to catch investor’s eyes. It’s good news for Michigan, Florida, California, Texas, and New York and even better for real estate investors in 2018.

Record Demand for Home, Condo and Apartment Rentals

The difference in this latest real estate rebound is the number of Americans renting and still needing to rent a home or condo.  That’s created the incredible income investment opportunity called rental income investment properties for passive income investments or self-managed property investments. 30% to 40% returns are not unheard of. It’s once in a lifetime wealth building. The kind of cap rates major investors can only dream of. Get some tips on how to do homes for sale searching better.

Just an aside on investment opportunities in condo/apartments is student housing investment in Vancouver. You may want to check out the underlying fundamentals and demand for student housing.

Scorching hot opportunity in the best cities! Will the hot markets of San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, Phoenix, and Los Angeles do as well as expected? Those cities with the highest home prices are not your only option. There’s plenty more towns and cities across the nation where you can buy rock bottom and sell high including this list of real estate by zip code.  Cities you’ll read about below with lower home prices and rising employment rates may be your best bets for 2017 to 2020.

One high performing rental income related opportunity to investigate is student housing investment in Vancouver. The student housing market in Vancouver is like no other place. Foreign families like Vancouver BC in Canada for many reasons. And the Canadian government is raising the limits on foreign students and on post grad immigration.  That means lots of demand coupled with high rents which translates to big profits. A company called CIBT has dominated this sector and is growing fast. You can invest with them like a REIT.

 

Sharing is Good for your Professional and Social Life!

Make sure others learn about the once in a lifetime opportunity in real estate investment with rental properties.

With strong economic growth as certainly continuing, rental income investment offers multiple ways to grow revenue. And your property may look even better to another investor when you sell. Lets see what the experts predict and what the stats say about the best cities and zip codes.




Renter Statistics:

  • Growth in rental demand was largest for people with incomes lower than $25,000; a group that accounted for four million new renters over the past decade.
  • Growth for people with household incomes over $50,000 accounted for 3.3 million new renters.
  • There was an increase of 1.6 million renters for those with incomes over $100,000 a year.
  • The amount of rental stock also grew, and the single-family house share of the market increased from 34-40% of the total rental stock
  • Vacancy rate was less than 5%  in 75% of the United States largest cities by 2015. 

Stats courtesy of go.homebay

Apartment and Single Family Home Rental Price Index
Price Index Screenshot courtesy of AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING: Expanding Options for Diverse and Growing Demand

Houses for Sale – The Ultimate Home Search Source

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Skyrocketing Home and Rental Prices in California are a Continuing Allure for Investors

In major urban areas such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Oakland, Boston and New York, the demand for rental properties is skyrocketing. Investors might see ROI of 30% or more on rental income property and that beats any stock market these days.

Foreign buyers too, are purchasing lower priced homes now, likely because of high prices on luxury homes along with the fact they can rent them out — passive income which is a hot topic for babyboomers in particular. Realtors are seeing a much different type of buyer today and they need to keep up on how competitive properties are in other cities in the US and Canada.  Investors just want a great return.

Home prices are rising everywhere, but what makes San Francisco so hot is its lack of housing stock and a booming job market. Where there is little growth in new housing development together with a healthy job market and a good demographic (millennials who can’t buy) the demand for rental housing has to explode.




percapitasanfrancisoExperts try to explain away this demand by blaming speculators and high housing prices, yet the driver of rental demand in San Fran is too many employed people with nowhere to live. And wages are rising. Silicon Valley’s rental market is so tight, there’s an overflow to Sacramento and other inland cities.

In-migration has been strong at a time when millennials are leaving home, contributing to rocketing apartment and home rental costs. This is fueling the tremendous demand for investment income properties. With no one building new homes and the government not acting to help, it’s up to private investors to take the helm.

With crazy high ROI, we’ll see rental income investors and developers race into these regions to build new properties. It’s a great investment situation for Americans, investors and realtors.




San Francisco is one area however that might not benefit. Its strong economy is driven by large tech corporations that add value to imported technology and products manufactured in China. Which is why Silicon Valley is hostile to Trump. California’s economic outlook is still very bright, but it’s low potential rental income outlook could send investors over to other US cities to invest in, such as those in green areas in the charts below.

Rental Income Property Investment Opportunities

With or without Trump, the US economic outlook is good. The outlook for rental income property is exceptional. Realtors and investment advisors should be looking hard at this market. Even babyboomer investors are looking at the potential of retirement income. Many babyboomers are a little nervous about how they’ll fund their “stay put” retirement plans.

They’ll need extra income to stay put and revamp their home over the next 30 years, and they may look to rental income to get that money.  A percentage may just sell their home and leave it to a developer/investor to turn it into the multi-family unit. That investor might be you.

Here’s Realty Trac’s outlook on the best US cities to invest for rental property income

usheatmap-rental-roi

Complicating your investment decision is another set of statistics from Realty Trac that shows the west still has the highest returns currently but the green zones are predicted to perform better.

best-rental-income-cities
Screen capture Courtesy of Realty Trac

How about a 32% Yield on a Single Family Home?

best-rental-income-cities-by-revenue

(Screenshot above courtesy of RealtyTrac single family rental market reports)



Top 80 Cities and their Potential for Passive Rental Income ROI

These converted stats in this chart from Smart Assets are very insightful. They used U.S. Census data, to calculate the price-to-rent ratio in every U.S. city with a population over 250,000. This is their list of 80 US cities below with the worst potential for rental property income investment appearing at the top (The ones at bottom such as Detroit have better potential, unless employment fails to recover in Michigan).

US Cities with Population above 250k Price-to-Rent Ratio

Home Price

(for a $1,000 Rental)

1 San Francisco, California 45.9 551000
2 Honolulu, Hawaii 40.1 481000
3 Oakland, California 38.5 462000
4 Los Angeles, California 38.0 456000
5 New York, New York 35.7 428000
6 Seattle, Washington 35.1 421000
7 San Jose, California 34.7 417000
8 Long Beach, California 34.6 415000
9 Washington, District of Columbia 32.0 384000
10 Anaheim, California 31.3 375000
11 San Diego, California 30.3 363000
12 Portland, Oregon 29.3 351000
13 Boston, Massachusetts 28.7 344000
14 Jersey City, New Jersey 26.3 316000
15 Denver, Colorado 26.0 312000
16 Chula Vista, California 25.8 310000
17 Santa Ana, California 25.3 303000
18 Sacramento, California 24.3 291000
19 Miami, Florida 23.4 280000
20 Austin, Texas 23.4 280000
21 Atlanta, Georgia 23.0 276000
22 Colorado Springs, Colorado 22.8 274000
23 Bakersfield, California 22.5 270000
24 Raleigh, North Carolina 22.4 269000
25 Riverside, California 22.4 268000
26 Lexington, Kentucky 22.0 264000
27 Albuquerque, New Mexico 21.9 263000
28 Chicago, Illinois 21.6 259000
29 Henderson, Nevada 21.6 259000
30 Chandler, Arizona 21.5 257000
31 New Orleans, Louisiana 21.4 256000
32 Virginia Beach, Virginia 21.1 253000
33 Fresno, California 21.0 252000
34 Newark, New Jersey 21.0 251000
35 Minneapolis, Minnesota 21.0 252000
36 Anchorage, Alaska 20.9 251000
37 Phoenix, Arizona 20.3 244000
38 Louisville, Kentucky 20.1 241000
39 St. Paul, Minnesota 20.0 239000
40 Plano, Texas 19.9 239000
41 Stockton, California 19.5 234000
42 Durham, North Carolina 19.5 233000
43 Las Vegas, Nevada 19.3 232000
44 Nashville, Tennessee 19.1 230000
45 Greensboro, North Carolina 19.1 229000
46 Mesa, Arizona 19.1 229000
47 Lincoln, Nebraska 19.1 229000
48 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 19.1 229000
49 Wichita, Kansas 18.4 221000
50 Charlotte, North Carolina 18.1 217000
51 Cincinnati, Ohio 18.0 216000
52 Aurora, Colorado 18.0 216000
53 Kansas City, Missouri 17.4 209000
54 Tulsa, Oklahoma 17.2 206000
55 Omaha, Nebraska 16.7 200000
56 St. Louis, Missouri 16.7 200000
57 Orlando, Florida 16.6 199000
58 Tampa, Florida 16.6 199000
59 Tucson, Arizona 16.3 196000
60 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 16.3 196000
61 Dallas, Texas 16.2 194000
62 Laredo, Texas 15.9 191000
63 Columbus, Ohio 15.9 190000
64 St. Petersburg, Florida 15.8 189000
65 Fort Wayne, Indiana 15.5 186000
66 Baltimore, Maryland 15.5 186000
67 Arlington, Texas 15.5 186000
68 El Paso, Texas 15.4 185000
69 Indianapolis, Indiana 15.4 184000
70 Houston, Texas 15.3 183000
71 Fort Worth, Texas 14.8 177000
72 Jacksonville, Florida 14.3 172000
73 Milwaukee, Wisconsin 14.2 170000
74 San Antonio, Texas 13.7 164000
75 Toledo, Ohio 13.3 159000
76 Corpus Christi, Texas 13.1 158000
77 Memphis, Tennessee 12.3 147000
78 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 12.0 144000
79 Buffalo, New York 10.7 128000
80 Cleveland, Ohio 10.5 126000
81 Detroit, Michigan 6.3 75000




What About the Local Economies?

Last year’s report from Millken research reveals the cities with the best performing economies in 2015. This was put out in December 2016.  Florida cities are showing a marked rise. Recent reports focus on the apartment rental prices in San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Jose as offering outstanding returns for investors.

best-us-city-economies-ranking

And this is Millken’s list of worst performing cities, likely the ones you might avoid.

worst-us-city-economies-ranking

Screenshot courtesy of Millken Institute. Read the detailed  Millken 2015 Best-Performing Cities report with rankings by economic component. Excellent insight to help you fine tune your rental income property investment choices.

Their interactive map of US cities with the best economies below is a very helpful tool to help you measure the investment prospects of one city versus another.

Lowest car insurance in these cities: LA car insurance, Boston auto insurance, Phoenix car insurance, San Francisco car insurance, San Diego car insurance, Seattle car insurance, New York car insurance, Indianapolis car insurance, Detroit car insurance, Philadelphia auto insurance, Toronto automobile insurance, or Chicago car insurance.

In this video below, Mike Hambright talks about apartment rental markets, and how to make money from cash flow and property value appreciation.




Are There any Warnings?

This graphic from Coreglogic warns about overheated city markets. Yet it also shows how markets like Silicon Valley, actually has lots of room for rent rate growth. And New York has the lowest rent rate to home price ratio.

Screenshot courtesy of Corelogic.com

There are so many real estate investment opportunities in the US and in Canada too. Hopefully, my amateur US housing forecasts, predictions and unguaranteed advice will help you find those opportunities for the best upside in cash flow, safety and equity appreciation. Be careful with any investment. Do your due diligence.

If you’re a realtor or real estate investor in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Toronto, San Jose, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, or Miami consider my Digital Marketing Services to help you build your realtor brand and and leverage the best sources of real estate leads.  Property investors from around the world are looking to buy. Because I’m an SEO specialist, I can generate real estate leads much more proficiently than lead generation companies. I can help you build a compelling unique value proposition and the highest exposure possible to homeowners and buyers across the US and Canada.  Let’s get your goals accomplished.

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TREB Market Watch Report for August 2016 – The Vancouver Tax

Toronto Real Estate Community Set for Big Welcome of Vancouver Real Estate Investors

TREB’s monthly market report showed 9989 homes were sold in Toronto (GTA) in July, which was one of the best July’s on record. Data is is suggesting 2016 will be a record year (It was!).  TREB has just released its August sales report (Sept 7) and sales were strong and housing stock is slim which isn’t much of a surprise. 9814 homes were sold in the TREB MLS zone.

Here’s a snippet from their Sept 7, news release:

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark for August 2016 was up by 17.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis.  Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 17.7 per cent on an annual basis to $710,410.  Both the MLS® HPI benchmarks and average prices for low-rise home types were up by double digits percentage-wise.

Toronto Real Estate: [bctt tweet=”Latest Update: Toronto Real Estate market is up substantially, whether foreign investors are involved or not. #hotrealestate” username=”@gord_collins”]




August sales was a new record, up 17.2% from August 2015.  Is this due to the exit of investment from the overheated Vancouver BC market to Toronto. Or is this just due to the constrained availability in Toronto and surrounding area such as York Region?  What’s obvious about the Vancouver and Toronto markets is the degree of available land and developments are causing price pressures. Will BC and Ontario governments change their directions or will this severe pressure continue right through 2017?

Word is, that Ontario is considering an extra transfer tax (they already have enough taxes).  We’ll be able to pay our carbon credit tax and extra transfer tax together?

Here’s a chart courtesy of TREB, showing price growth in the last year. Very big numbers which might make a number of Toronto homeowners get off the shelf about selling their home.  Houses and condos sold for record prices and yet we’re not hearing as much lately about bidding wars?  York region lead the way with the biggest gains (22%) in price. Are you a York region realtor? Why not check out my digital marketing  and Real Estate Lead Generation services?  I’d be happy to help you.

trebstatsaugust

The Big Shift to Toronto

Toronto real estate agents, developers, builders, and financial companies must be in very good spirits knowing the number of sales will boom.  Many foreign buyers search Google or Juwai for information on homes, and from the jump in visits to my pages, it seems interest is growing. Those realtors who are present on Google search are sure to see their inquiries and leads grow.

This chart courtesy of TREB covers the details of each MLS zone: (click to enlarge). Mississauga, Vaughan and Toronto Central remain the top districts in terms of value. Toronto’s C12 MLS district (Lawrence Park, Don Valley, St Andrew/Windfields) has the highest prices with an average composite price of $1,690,900 and a detached home average price of $2,054,800. Other Toronto districts had higher price growth, some over 32% year over year.  Toronto MLS average prices have levelled off with volume down 30 to 40,000 dollars since the spring high season.

treb-august-2016
TREB Summary of Sales of Existing Homes in Toronto MLS region — Screencapture courtesy of TREB

BC’s Foreign Buyers Tax is the Big News in August

The BC government voted to levy a 15% tax on real estate investment by foreign buyers and many believe this has caused Asian buyers to shift their focus eastward for homes and other properties and take their money with them. The forecast for the 2017 Toronto housing market was good before, but with this new influx from Vancouver, it may be a profitable fall season for realtors and builders.




foreignsalesincanada
This chart courtesy of the Toronto Globe and Mail shows foreign purchases make a small portion of the total Vancouver mls region and are centered mostly in Richmond and Burnaby.

The stats don’t support that Asian investment money is responsible for Vancouver’s housing boom, anymore than it was Toronto or Montreal’s improvement. Politicians are likely hoping the public will believe a symptom of Vancouver’s amazing success is the cause. Prices have slid in Vancouver, but it may do little to make housing affordable in BC. In fact, we have to wonder if the exodus of that money will depress Vancouver’s economy and optimism.  When you try to suppress the spirit of a city, you could be in for a tough go.  Many of the foreign buyers are buying because their children are attending schools in Vancouver. It will certainly make a lot of over-leveraged buyers nervous as well as many schools in BC (including UBC) who will lose these foreign students and tuition.

The Big Shift to Toronto

Toronto real estate agents, developers, builders, and financial companies must be in very good spirits knowing the number of sales will boom.  Many foreign buyers search Google or Juwai for information on homes, and from the jump in visits to my pages, it seems interest is growing.

In a news story from inews880, Jordan Teperman, executive vice-president of Haven Developments in Toronto, said Toronto is seeing the effects of the tax.

“We really don’t know what the effect of it is yet, but I could tell you from the seven projects that we have on the go…we are getting a lot of calls from brokers out west saying they have customers that would traditionally invest in Vancouver and are coming to Toronto now because they feel it’s a safe heaven, and two, they are so taxed out in their foreign countries.”

Teperman also said a major developer his company works with said the figures could be as high as 60 to 70% of the volume of investors that could go to Toronto instead of Vancouver. That would certainly make the Toronto Real Estate market jump in August and September.

trebhistoricprices

TREB doesn’t report mid-month sales any longer, so we’ll have to wait another 7 to 10 days to see what the Vancouver impact is.  What needs to be looked at further is how many sales will move to the US markets such as Los Angeles.

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Gord Collins — Real Estate SEO Expert for realtors in Toronto, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Oshawa, Markham, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Vaughan, Burlington, and Hamilton.

SEO Forecast – Digital Marketing Update 2020

SEO Spending Continues To Rise

Amid constant warnings about SEOs impending death, the practice of search engine optimization continues to flourish. It seems only to change in complexity and continue as an ever more rewarding source of qualified customers. If you’re a small business owner, an SEO expert is vital to your business future.

Elements of digital marketing such as PPC, social reach, and Google algorithms are seemingly always in a state of flux. We’re never sure where it’s all headed and if campaigns will provide short term or lasting value, impact and visibility online.  Will internet ads be blocked? How will Google manipulate the results to force more visitors to click ads (Or go to G+). Will Google stop favoring big brands if the world’s Free Trade agreements are modified? Will small business roar? Will Facebook continue to shut down all high volume exposure for businesses to squeeze money out of advertisers? Will Twitter even survive? Will Google PPC prices explode?

Perhaps the surest cue to SEOs future, are the PPC prices on Google Adwords advertising.  Automotive, Legal, and Health categories continue to grow fast in cost to advertisers.  Many advertisers have been priced out of the market and have turned to Facebook and Twitter advertising which has shown mediocre returns.

riseingoogleads

SEO’s Future: Always the Most Credible Source for Consumers

Search will survive because people need information and they have high expectations of Google search results.  It’s SEOs job to know what customers want and how to perform SEO at an elite level to get in the top 5 positions.

One thing we know for sure, it’s getting noisier as more money pours into digital marketing.  As part of my consulting work, I have to research precise market demand. One key statistic is the cost per click of client’s most important search engine keyword phrases. Well, that could range from $10 to $90 per click! And companies will pay that price.  No one pays $90 for a walk-in, or a banner ad click, and well, okay yes they’ll pay through the nose for tv, billboard and bus ads.  How is SEO faring against the likes of television, radio, and bus ads?

If branded high visibility is what companies want, SEO has to be the best way to get it.

Local media forecaster Borrell Associates has attempted to capture the totality of spending on “digital marketing services” in the US. Borrell argues that “businesses will shell out an estimated $613 billion in DMS” in 2016, an amount many times larger than “ad spending.” — From Adgooroo Advertising Insight

The title graphic above is courtesy of Search Engine Land and shouldn’t they have also died along with SEO? The stat shows spending on SEO keeps growing (20+ % to 2020). Those with a great strategy have confidence that’s worth it, rather than funneling money into weak PPC and social media campaigns that have one time, temporary benefits. Remember how SEO lasts. There’s few posts on the long term benefits of SEO, but I did write a post on customer lifetime value.

There have been a lot of rumors about the death of SEO in digital marketing and it is affecting company’s budgetary plans.  Social marketers in particular would like to money gravitate to their field, but let’s face it, social will never generate the kind of ROI SEO can.  This may be the end of incompetent and non-enabled SEOs who can’t keep up to the extreme demands for content strategy and content quality. Not that they should be ashamed, they just haven’t accepted that the effort, cost and potential prize are higher now.  Google’s forcing you to be more patient and forcing you to manage SEO in a more stressful way — to discourage you from seeking free traffic.

I’ll be the first to admit, that it’s very tough to rank at the top if you don’t have a good budget for link building and content development. SEO’s not free and high quality content is what customers are searching for (and what Google is demanding).

Maybe what the negative forecasters are actually saying is that cheap, no-budget, poor content driven SEO is dead?  A few SEO pundits keep saying “algorithm chasing” is dead. Let’s get it straight. SEO is all about matching algorithms. That’s what you’re optimizing for. Therefore, an expert understanding of Google’s algorithm (as well as other algorithms in use for just about everything now) is a great asset. In future, SEOs will have to be well informed, constantly testing and analyzing ranking results to allow them the best understanding of Google’s algorithm.  Algorithm research is very important for top flight SEOs.

So let’s recall our classic literature shall we: “The King is Dead, Long Live the King”

What are some tips to help you thrive for many years to come?

  • never work with cheap, $199 a month spammers — this is not SEO – SEO is hard work
  • make a commitment to SEO by not listening to hyped up fears generated by the Google lab
  • don’t rely on social media – it offers a very poor search experience
  • remember that searchers using Google are often ready to buy
  • know that Google’s algorithm is very complex but still understandable
  • that SEO provides the best ROI possible and that abandoning professional level SEO could kill your business

What is the Future of SEO?

  1. higher quality content designed to appease Google’s algorithm
  2. content that generates higher clickthrough rates and user engagement
  3. greater use of artificial intelligence in the algorithm by Google
  4. better scrutiny of backlinks by Google
  5. better integration of content and search engine optimization strategy
  6. better awareness by Google of rich media interaction by users
  7. more traffic for the very best optimized websites
  8. more integration of Google analytics by Google to determine worthy webpages
  9. more sophisticated link building techniques that involve big planning and well executed link building tactics
  10. more rewards for those help a company grow its Google ranking power

Do you believe the real estate market forecasts are correct? Will Brexit and the coming Trump presidency affect digital marketing from 2017 to 2020? Are we looking at a complete renaissance of marketing with US small businesses ruling the market and brands dying?

Have a good look at the Toronto real estate outlook, Vancouver housing outlook and the San Diego economic and real estate forecast 2016 to 2020.  Are you a realtor looking for real estate leads? It might be better judgement to build your own lead generating strategy using an SEO  expert.

Toronto and Vancouver 2016 Real Estate Market Forecast

2016 & 2017 Sales Potential is Looking Good

Has there ever been a better time to be a realtor, property developer or mortgage agent in Toronto and Vancouver? Probably not. CREA, Royal Bank and CMHC are giving the thumbs up for realty transactions over the next few years. Pros are going to do well.

Agents and brokers should be looking for new ways to be the BIG Kahunas of their markets through digital marketing strategies. The payoff for some will be shocking. I hope you’re looking at 2016/17 with an eye for income growth.

Sutton Group = West Coast Realty for instance had a record $11 Billion in transactions last year and this year probably higher.  If you’re a broker, you may want to look more closely at building a cohesive digital marketing presence, one that’s innovative and above common thinking about how to build realty business online.

Royal Bank: Outlook is Very Good

RBC is forecasting continued prosperity for the Toronto and Vancouver regions including stronger employment, rising exports, low loonie, low interest rates, and strong consumer spending.  BC is forecast to be the strongest at 3.1% GDP growth, with Ontario and Saskatchewan just behind.

2015 was ruined by a huge drop in energy company expenditures and unfortunately, Alberta will see further retraction. As the dust settles in the energy sector, the Ontario and BC economies will grow stronger. In fact, RBC believes Ontario’s growth will pick up steam in 2017 to 2.7%.  Both provinces are expected to see full time job gains in 2016 and beyond.

“Although frothy in some areas (e.g., Toronto), we believe that the provincial housing market will continue to be supported by strong demand, which will maintain housing construction at historically elevated levels.”

Toronto and Vancouver: Home Prices Remain High with limited Availability

Toronto and Vancouver home availability and prices will continue as a big story. Nationally, CMHC predicts that home prices will continue to climb over the next two years, but at a slower rate – 1.3 per cent in 2016 and 1.4 per cent in 2017. In this first graph from a report on the GTA housing market, it’s suggested that sales are edging lower due to affordability, however the real underlying problem is a lack of housing stock for sale. Realtors need to be more creative in enticing homeowners to sell.

cmhc4

cmhcchart2

cmhcchart3

In Toronto, new housing starts may fall by 5% and another 10% although experts are not in agreement about that slowdown, especially regarding the new condo market. Most growth occurred in only 5 property developments, meaning there may still be untapped demand in the greater Toronto area.

Fewer new detached homes will be built in Toronto and multifamily construction will actually make up more than half of new homes constructed there in 2017. Existing home sales will drop to 87,500 units by 2017 as prices grow much too high for first time buyers. If China’s investment rule stays relaxed, more Asian buyers may support a less precipitous drop from 2015’s record home sale numbers and prices.

In Vancouver, CMHC forecasts Vancouver’ s host housing sales will slow only slightly in 2016 and 2017. Affordability is the issue that will cool sales from their record hot numbers. New housing starts are expected remain strong with 20,000 units under construction. The home resale market should grow to their highest levels in the last 10 years and moderately slightly in 2016 and 2017. 2015 was a sizzling year, rising 9% so a further 3% grow is actually fairly positive for realtors and mortgage agents.

Seniors in Vancouver and Toronto

In another story in the Advisor, it’s reported that seniors in Toronto and Vancouver may not want to sell their homes even though they may not be able to afford to live well in retirement. When seniors run out of money, they may have to sell their homes. Some may turn to reverse mortgages which are becoming a hot type of financial service.

reversemortgagestorontovanc
From a Report in the Globe and Mail

That means much of the available housing stock may not be sold. Seniors can live in them until they die and that means a good portion of the resale market will not enter the market. Of course, creative real estate marketers may find a way to help seniors understand the advantages of selling now while prices are so high. Seniors have options such as living in low cost Caribbean or South American countries, or moving to regions of Canada that are cheap.  With more babyboomers entering retirement, the sales potential of senior sellers and buyers will be of interest to innovative real estate agents.

Realtors who build their own brand of innovative services can get an edge in the coming years. Persuading homeowners to sell their home and progress with their lives, is just one example of innovation that top selling realtors will use. What else will they be doing? Take a look.

Looking for some more useful tips for Realtors?  What to do first?  A digital marketing audit can give you the insight you need to make better decisions about to be a winner in the digital wars.  Avoid the pain of being an unsuccessful realtor. It’s all in the insight and planning.

Is a high powered, responsive IDX-based website the only asset you need for the years ahead in your career? Actually, such sites are a great, but small part of the total integrated success program.

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Real Estate Market Forecast Housing Outlook Vancouver 2016

There’s Cause for Optimism in Vancouver and the Rest of BC

bcforestgraphThe irony of it all. BC is now Canada’s economic darling and yet some are complaining (justifiably, those who can’t pay the high rents). The question is whether politicians will try do something negative to spoil this growth.

The BC economy is expected to expand nicely at 2.9% to 3.1% next year. BC exports are growing as new liberal international trade deals are increased and as our loonie keeps falling to .75US.

CMHC believes there will be 30,000 more households in BC next year, and that will support sales of rising new homes being built. Mortgage and borrowing rates will stay low, energy prices will stay low so it’s a superb business situation for BC companies who need the investment money.

bcexportsgraph
Exports to China strong. Growing trade will make Vancouver the key city in Canada in the next 5 years.

BC’s latest jobs report is pretty good too. BC is leading the country with 12,400 jobs added, while the rest of Canada lost jobs. And 2016 has a nice look to it — supporting a healthy real estate sector.

The big controversy is the influx of Chinese investment money into the BC commercial and residential real estate sector. If the Asian markets continue sliding, more rich Chinese will be seeking to park their money in Vancouver and Toronto property. This is a short term financial anomaly that won’t continue so why bother trying to kill it?

September report from RBC paints a rosy picture of BC's growing economic power
September report from RBC paints a rosy picture of BC’s growing economic power

A Better way to Manage the Influx of Billions

Chinese investing in Vancouver
Chinese buyers surfing the Net to find Canadian Properties

There are those who want to end the infusion of investment from Chinese property buyers.

Rather than making these investors use devious ways to buy property here, we could make it easier for them to buy in the Okanagan, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Toronto tax-free, since this investment money could go elsewhere instead. We could lose it all.

If Asian buyers can’t buy here, they will choose the US to park their cash. San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami and New York are very attractive too. But Vancouver’s better.

A report in the Globe and Mail states:

Dan Scarrow, vice-president of corporate strategy at Macdonald Realty Ltd., estimates that 16 per cent of his firm’s 1,500 sales of detached houses, condos and townhouses within the city of Vancouver last year went to buyers from China. Of his firm’s 544 sales of detached homes in Vancouver proper last year, 150 of the purchasers were from China, or 27.5 per cent.

Another Globe and mail report suggests Chinese sales are aided by a tax loophole that allows them to avoid tax by listing the purchase in the name of a relative.  33% of all these purchases are bought under these circumstances. If this loophole is closed, it could send a shockwave through the real estate market.

Big Sales but fewer Homeowners are Selling

The G&M report also revealed that number of listings in Vancouver has dropped 27% from last year.

In Vancouver, housing starts are expected to grow from 9500 in 2015 to 9600 next year. Resale home sales will rise from $820,000 in 2015 to $835,000 in 2016. According the BC real estate association, the average price of a single detached home will rise from $885,000 currently to $920,000 next year. That’s up more than $100k from 2014.

The GVREB HPI index price for a detached property rose to nearly $1.41 million in Sept 201, up 11.5% from last September.

If the Liberals win the October 19th election, which is very likely, we could see a boost in the economy with them increasing spending.  The latest jobs report is a rise of 73k part time jobs and a drop of 62k in full time jobs.

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