Toronto Housing Market

Home sales and prices in the Toronto GTA market rose in May while home prices reached an average of $1.2 million.

The fact that home prices are back up near where they were during the boom is an astounding fact. And TRREB reiterated its belief that government’s lack of support for home construction is the root of low supply and excessive prices across Toronto. See the price progression chart below.

There were 9,012 home sales recorded within the TRREB’s MLS® System during May 2023 – a rise of 24.7% vs 12 months ago. Newly listed homes for sales dropped 18.7% year over year. Home sales were up by 5.2% vs last April of 2023.

TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer said “The demand for ownership housing has picked up markedly in recent months as many homebuyers have recalibrated their housing needs in the face of higher borrowing costs and are moving back into the market. In addition, strong rent growth and record population growth on the back of immigration has also supported increased home sales.”

Across the GTA, home prices rose 3.3% in May and are up 10.5% quarter to quarter.

With 15,194 new listings in May 2023 combined with a +24% year-over-year growth in sales, it appears competition for homes will grow this summer, and likely will persist even as the market softens in the fall months. If rates fall, it could lead to higher home prices going into 2024 given the overall lack of homes for sale.

Average single detached home prices in the 416 area code are $400,000 higher than last November of 2022 and are up $110,000 in the 905 area code. Condo apartments have risen only $50,000 over that time, while semi-detached rose about $200,000 in the 416 zone.

Toronto May Sales Summary. Screenshot courtesy of TRREB.

Toronto Home Price Chart. Screenshot courtesy of Zolo.

Remax has forecasted a price drop of 11.4% in 2023 due to a reduction in demand for homes.

Home prices by # of bedrooms. Screenshot courtesy of Zolo.

Mortgage Rates

While a lack of supply is an issue, the real impediment to the Toronto housing market and Mississauga housing market is mortgage rates. While they’re at lower than historical levels, they are still an impediment to borrowers who face much tighter lending criteria. While the Bank of Canada did raise interest rates once more this month, it’s generally believed we are at the end of the rate hikes and must suffer the lagging economic effects before a revival in 2024.

Residential housing sales and prices in Toronto during May. Screenshot courtesy of TRREB.ca

Residential listings and DOM in Toronto during May. Screenshot courtesy of TRREB.ca

Summary of Home sales transactions May. Screenshot courtesy of TRREB.

Summary of Home sales Toronto City. Screenshot courtesy of TRREB.

Will Toronto home prices fall in late 2023 and 2024 or are we looking at a great market as interest rates fall? What is the risk of a housing market crash in Toronto? See the Calgary housing market, Mississauga and Vancouver housing market reports for comparison.

There is little concern for a housing market downturn, yet economic pessimism is taking some of the steam out of what could be a very overheated Toronto real estate sector. These factors may deter many buyers from buying at home at what is the peak of the market. Few are talking about a housing market crash in most markets.

GTA City by city home prices (data courtesy of TRREB)

As the chart reveals, price rises for single detached homes have been steepest in Caledon, Oakville, Pickering and Bradford. Ajax have enjoyed 20% or more in home sale value in the last 3 months. Brampton, Milton, Burlington, Newmarket, Ajax, Uxbridge and Whitby have seen the strongest price growth since 2017. When the recovery resumes, these same communities will likely resume their high price trends.

Mississauga’s saw a big 6% month-over-month price growth to a new $1,140,328 average home price. See more on the Mississauga housing market. Looking to buy a home in Mississauga, Milton or Oakville? Contact Damir Strk, with Remax, a well experienced Realtor you can trust and rely on.

Toronto Region Cities	May 2023	November 2022	March 2022	August 2017	Price Change last 8 Months	Price Change Last 6 years
Burlington	$1,495,300	$1,476,310	$1,638,040	$944,564	1%	58%
Halton Hills	$1,265,500	$1,160,736	$1,564,270	$984,812	9%	29%
Milton	$1,325,000	$1,434,733	$1,712,357	$866,650	-8%	53%
Oakville	$1,870,000	$1,434,733	$2,362,508	$1,314,363	30%	42%
Brampton	$1,281,000	$1,197,119	$1,573,497	$766,831	7%	67%
Caledon	$1,455,000	$1,197,119	$1,903,025	$1,028,591	22%	41%
Mississauga	$1,480,000	$1,427,501	$1,756,910	$1,066,015	4%	39%
Toronto West	$1,350,000	$1,560,548	$1,683,450	$919,916	-13%	47%
Toronto Central	$2,400,000	$2,236,273	$2,725,902	$2,113,130	7%	14%
Toronto East	$1,247,000	$1,226,910	$1,529,864	$887,620	2%	40%
Aurora	$1,550,000	$1,507,187	$1,981,617	$1,144,094	3%	35%
E Gwillimbury	$1,245,000	$1,320,867	$1,621,299	$966,047	-6%	29%
Georgina	$900,000	$1,320,867	$1,130,155	$604,838	-32%	49%
King	$2,000,000	$2,662,476	$2,737,753	$1,768,333	-25%	13%
Markham	$1,788,000	$1,767,936	$1,997,702	$1,319,860	1%	35%
Newmarket	$1,355,000	$1,767,936	$1,552,840	$901,055	-23%	50%
Richmond Hill	$1,840,000	$1,840,276	$2,051,273	$1,466,884	0%	25%
Vaughan	$1,725,000	$1,840,276	$2,044,573	$1,348,649	-6%	28%
Whitchurch Stouffville	$1,395,000	$1,742,244	$1,978,605	$1,024,941	-20%	36%
Ajax	$1,120,000	$1,067,719	$1,373,496	$708,185	5%	58%
Brock	$747,450	$713,450	$1,057,415	$508,615	5%	47%
Oshawa	$861,000	$930,188	$1,099,404	$550,677	-7%	56%
Pickering	$1,280,000	$930,188	$1,511,459	$812,643	38%	58%
Scugog	$945,000	$833,327	$1,298,531	$719,375	13%	31%
Uxbridge	$1,350,000	$1,344,389	$1,560,469	$792,233	0%	70%
Whitby	$1,161,000	$1,344,389	$1,399,956	$733,811	-14%	58%
Orangeville	$890,000	$833,818	$1,194,537	$612,974	7%	45%
Bradford	$1,180,000	$1,042,105	$1,458,031		13%
Innisfil	$900,000	$892,423	$1,230,745	$549,492	1%	64%

Housing Affordability Can be Eased if Homeowners Decide to Cash in on the Bonanza

It’s a frightening context for real estate and housing given rental listings are down significantly from last year. This is a crisis of significant proportions given immigrants are pouring in over our borders. Homeless deaths rocketed over 200 last year.

The issue of NIMBYism and municipal regulations is clouding the housing market forecast for Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, and the rest of York Region. Doug Ford announced the recently passed Bill 23: More Homes Faster Act which may help if the effort is sincere. Still with hundreds of thousands of new immigrants entering the GTA to live in the next 2 years, it may be too little too late.

The lack of outcry about housing prevention in the GTA area is alarming. Builders are already pulling back on construction projects due to expected buyer withdrawal and economic recession. Politicians and wealthy homeowners may not want to see real estate values fall, and they have a belief in a high density/high cost, anti-sprawl agenda.

TREBB’s President Kevin Crigger knows it and reiterated what his predecessors said many times “Evidence-based decision-making should inform government policies, and we encourage representatives at all levels of government to think big and act decisively to improve needed housing supply in a significant way.”

So when homeowners do sell their homes and condos, it is the best short term solution to the housing crisis in the GTA and across Canada.

Remax 2023 Toronto Housing Forecast

Remax forecasts home prices in Toronto will fall 11.8% by end of 2023 and only 5% in Mississauga.

Right now is a good time time to sell your home. just before an expected drop this winter and spring. And you can sell your home fast with perhaps no commission, or sell it for more using a Realtor with a strong digital marketing strategy.

The Toronto condo segment has recovered well and is expected to continue given the shortage of units, the demand from new immigrants, returning workers to the high density housing in GTA urban areas (Toronto).

The lack of housing supply is making finding a home in the GTA very difficult. It is real estate in Vaughan, Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Milton, Stouffville, Pickering and Whitby that everyone is after.

With mortgage rates at historic lows and loan refinancing still frequent, the market is loosening up. However, with Covid still actives, US trade tensions heightening, and the US election in two months, we’re hearing more talk about a housing market crash. And a Toronto housing market crash is possible if the US economy should collapse.

As you can see in the monthly Toronto GTA region prices and sales details, upward momentum is strong. The growth in prices in each regions is astonishing and there is little to suggest it will slow into the fall season.

See more on the Vancouver real estate market, Calgary real estate market, Okanagan real estate market and the York region real estate market.

Compare Toronto’s property market outlook to the US housing market forecast. You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below. Also, keep an eye on Toronto condo prices as the pandemic passes.

Homebuyers are still willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north.