Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2019 to 2020

Is there any good news for buyers in the Toronto housing market this month? MLS housing stats are below (Sales down 22% YoY in May, and prices up).

With NAFTA cancellations, US tariffs and retaliation by Canada, high consumer debt, oil flow blockages in BC, rising interest and mortgage rates, and an awful May jobs report, it’s tough for Toronto home buyers to feel at ease this summer of 2018. Even sellers are queasy. What’s next?

The bubble talk lingers and 2019 looks more like a crash year. It’s about the precarious financial state of Ontario buyers who it turns out, were the ones who created the bubble, not the Asians. Those investors are losing money and praying for capital appreciation. Will the overleveraged ones start the much anticipated Toronto housing market slide?




If there is a Toronto housing crash in 2018/2019, buyers will find plenty of homes for sale.

The US housing market is healthy yet there are plenty warning of a crash down there too. The issue is the world is suffering from US spending withdrawal and Trump isn’t ready to resume normal trade relations. When summer home sales in Toronto wane, the reality of the situation might begin to sink in.

Screen Capture courtesy of thenation.com

It was a situation badly played by our 3 levels of government who apparently have little foresight. The NAFTA cancellation should have been prepared for. Trump warned 2 years ago. And won’t it be odd that the Liberals could find themselves homeless? What goes around comes around.

The IMF  Keeps Saying We’re in Big Trouble

After endless warnings about a Toronto housing crash, the IMF recently chimed in with their warning about Canada’s economic woes. The IMF warns our GDP could take a huge hit with NAFTA cancellations and the comparatively low  tax rate in the US.  We’re not competitive, the loonie could rise (high oil prices), and no one’s investing here.

Right now, US tax cuts are stimulating spending in the US, heating up their stock markets and housing markets, and increasing exports from Canada.  As US companies build up strength, those exports from Ontario might dwindle — we’re living on borrowed time. And Trump is singing a tune companies in the US want to hear.




A potential Toronto housing crash is something the IMF is concerned with too.

NAFTA Will Be Cancelled

Experts believe Canada and the US will work out a direct trade deal after NAFTA is cancelled. However, President Trump has stated his intention to revive the US auto industry and that’s why NAFTA must die. He complained about how our dairy industry is unfair too. Is our faith in a fair deal justified?

With the Ontario economy highly dependent on the strength of stagnant housing markets (governments need the taxes) there’s some valid worry about 2019. Affordability is the big issue, but so is a complete meltdown.

On a positive note, prices in some TREB districts have fallen a little as you’ll see in the stats below. Toronto is a sellers market despite government promises to fix the situation.  In case you missed it, the Wynne liberals are promising insurance discounts again. Who are you voting for tomorrow?




Below you’ll find the latest Toronto housing market stats and charts which are depressingly similar each month. It might be time to look at the big picture now, instead of what house prices are in a particular area of Toronto.

Will 2019 be the year of the crash? TREBs Jason Mercer said that if government policy straightens out we should have a leveling of the market.

Toronto Housing Report for May 2018

TREB has released the May MLS sales report and a key bit of information has emerged — Sellers aren’t selling and have no intention of selling in 2018 or 2019 (new listings dropped 26.2%).  They’re over housed (5 million extra bedrooms) while buyers are forced to buy condos.  Since they’re not selling, home prices are expected to rise slightly in 2019.

Despite government suppression of the housing market in Toronto, the housing crisis in Toronto continues, and the Ontario economy underperforms. It’s a dangerous situation with rising real estate prices while the economy stalls. Will this set up the predicted Toronto housing crash?

Should you Call a Realtor and Sell Your Home? It’s a good time if you have a plan and somewhere to go. Try this to sell your house fast and for more.




The Ontario Election — June 7th – It’s Not About Housing

Greater Toronto Area residents want the next provincial government to reduce the land transfer tax and focus on policies that increase housing supply in the region, according to a poll from the Toronto Real Estate Board. — report from the Globe and Mail

None of the parties have said they would repeal taxes and penalties and open up land for development. The issue is they’re addicted to the taxes generated on artificial price pressures.

Graphic courtesy of TREB and the new MARKET YEAR IN REVIEW & OUTLOOK REPORT for 2018

None of the parties have come up with a plan to stop building investment money fleeing to “low tax” United States. With the border blocked, there will be no reason to invest in Canada. That has severe implications for the financial markets here.

If not for the Toronto Condo market, the Toronto housing market would be wheeled  into the critical care unit.  Without positive signals, how can we be optimistic about 2019?

TREB May Housing Market Update

The Toronto Real Estate Board — Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,834 sales  in May 2018 down 22.2 % YoY.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark decreased 5.4% YoY,  while the average selling price for all homes dropped 6.6% to $805,320. The average selling price rose 1.1% over last month.

Graphic courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board




Here’s how Toronto Detached Home prices have fared during the last 2 years:

Average Price – Detached Homes TREB – May 2018

City May 2018 April 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2018 Nov 2017 Aug 2017 Apr 2016 Price Change Last 24 months Price Change Last 9 Months
Burlington $1,000,451 $964,428 $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $944,564 $961,502 4.1% 5.9%
Halton Hills $839,156 $839,391 $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $984,812 $828,719 1.3% -14.8%
Milton $873,073 $853,013 $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $866,650 $765,973 14.0% 0.7%
Oakville $1,321,709 $1,338,062 $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 10.9% 0.6%
Brampton $833,072 $823,963 $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $766,831 $660,015 26.2% 8.6%
Caledon $1,011,975 $1,049,260 $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $1,028,591 $755,494 33.9% -1.6%
Mississauga $1,090,069 $1,098,911 $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,066,015 $966,467 12.8% 2.3%
Toronto West $1,208,278 $1,190,093 $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $919,916 $944,422 27.9% 31.3%
Toronto Central $2,153,454 $2,029,454 $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 8.6% 1.9%
Toronto East $968,255 $956,527 $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $887,620 $860,814 12.5% 9.1%
Aurora $1,154,100 $1,110,027 $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -0.1% 0.9%
E Gwillimbury $915,098 $879,784 $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $966,047 $764,055 19.8% -5.3%
Georgina $549,781 $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $604,838 $548,886 0.2% -9.1%
King $1,618,796 $1,516,842 $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 26.1% -8.5%
Markham $1,272,061 $1,293,689 $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $868,978 $898,116 $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $901,055 $841,593 3.3% -3.6%
Richmond Hill $1,386,780 $1,467,752 $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -1.8% -5.5%
Vaughan $1,297,953 $1,282,114 $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 8.9% -3.8%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,001,131 $1,047,914 $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 -4.5% -2.3%
Ajax $726,421 $731,133 $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $708,185 $646,370 12.4% 2.6%
Brock $501,586 $631,425 $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $508,615 $419,758 19.5% -1.4%
Oshawa $550,123 $566,649 $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $550,677 $467,981 17.6% -0.1%
Pickering $889,623 $822,498 $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $812,643 $772,399 15.2% 9.5%
Scugog $777,343 $643,848 $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $719,375 $545,804 42.4% 8.1%
Uxbridge $858,994 $885,883 $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $727,584 $745,217 $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $733,811 $618,032 17.7% -0.8%
Orangeville $594,824 $627,951 $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $612,974 $490,825 21.2% -3.0%
Innisfil $569,648 $698,854 $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $549,492 $476,756 19.5% 3.7%

Above Stats courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

You’ve seen the same discouraging Toronto housing stats for many months now. Nothing new.  York Region and Mississauga have been hit hard while the condo market is selling its last available units.




Perhaps it’s time to look at what’s wrong with this market and why Toronto housing crash is being uttered more and more?

Election 2018 – No Help for Housing?

The latest TREB report however was overshadowed by the bomb dropped by Doug Ford, leader of the PC party. Ford  suddenly recanted his promise to increase housing development and construction to help with the housing crisis.

Voters were praying for relief and with Doug Ford’s legal mess, it’s looking as as though the NDP may actually win. That means the case for new investment in housing construction has soured.

Is a Toronto Housing Crash More Likely?

With the U.S. threatening Ontario’s auto manufacturing sector, what could be shaping up right now is a Toronto housing crash.

Since Toronto is slated to be a global supercity with a big increase in population, any NIMBY type land restrictions and red tape are serious issues. Right now buyers aren’t buying (house sales down 5%), high foreign buyers taxes, land transfer taxes, rising mortgage rates, and sellers aren’t selling (nowhere to go).  It’s a Mexican standoff during what should be a hot sales period.

It’s another indication that housing in Toronto is solely a political issue. Ontario’s election day is June 7th and this will put the Toronto housing conflict to rest either way. Yesterday’s news should be a boost for the Toronto condo market.




Toronto’s Insatiable Appetite for Money

Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

TREB has reiterated its belief thaht it’s the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. TWhen will prices bottom out? Perhaps in late June or next October?

 

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere!

The March 2018 TREB update revealed the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices keep rising despite governments attempt to throttle it. On June 7th, Ontarians will get their chance to speak.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

 

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Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.

Screen Capture courtesy of Teranet




Teranet Home Prices

This chart from Teranet compares prices from the top Canadian housing markets to date.

 




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as they reflect on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).



Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.




 

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toronto.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.




Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?




Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?




Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Please do share this post on Facebook r Linkedin




New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Please do share this report with anyone you know who might be buying or selling




A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale

Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate and US housing crash post, orecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

 

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

 

ontarioeconomicforecast

 

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

 

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma

Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

 

A quick look at the US housing forecast and predictions for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, Seattle, and Florida, tell you the US is hot. Check out forecasts for Boston, New York, Miami, and San Diego.

 

 

Homebuyers are still willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north.

What will the next few months bring for the housing market and economy in Toronto?  What are your predictions?

Trending in 2018/2019: US Housing | Lowest Mortgage Rates |  Buying a House | Stock Market Crash |  Canadian Economy Forecast  | Oil Price Predictions | Mortgage Rates | Best Real Estate Investment | Home Price Forecast | Toronto Housing Market Forecast | Los Angeles Housing Market |  Calgary Housing Forecast  | Lead Generation | New Homes for Sale in Newmarket | New Homes for Sale in Aurora | York Region New Construction | Aurora Luxury Homes | Mississauga Real Estate Report | Toronto Auto Insurance | Vancouver Auto Insurance | Bradford West Gwillimbury Homes |  Friday Harbour ResortBest Investment Opportunities | US Housing Crash 2017 | When is the Best Time to Buy a House? | When should I Sell My House? | RETS IDX  | Will There be a Market Crash? | Best House Renovations | Bitcoin Cryptocurrency |  Foreign Exchange Rate Forecast | Forex Rate Forecast

 

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21 Comments
  • John
    Posted at 22:45h, 16 February Reply

    What a disaster we Canadians have got ourselves into. Is real estate what we do as an economy now? Do what it takes to make your retirement buck now & who cares about the next 30 years of up and coming generations.

    The market should have corrected years ago but because of poor polices and virtually free money we are in a situation where, when it crashes the entire economy will go with it. So much laziness and greed has been applied to the Canadian real estate market I can help but think we deserve everything that’s coming our way.

  • Larry
    Posted at 13:34h, 03 April Reply

    The simple fact is that house prices are rising much faster than incomes. Houses will become unaffordable to many Canadians. US interest rates are on a slow path upwards and Canadian rates will eventually follow. Toronto is in a bubble but the real question is whether we will see an orderly slow decline in prices or more like a crash.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 13:51h, 03 April Reply

      Larry, my view is that prices will keep rising fast, with insufficient new housing stock, and indebted Millennial first time buyers will be over-leveraged as they buy the cheaper homes. And they may not really be able to afford them. It’ll be one thing that will start the landslide, perhaps foreign money leaving that does it.

  • Dan
    Posted at 00:25h, 27 April Reply

    Excellent collection of insights. Thank you Gord. We had our second child in Jan. and Toronto may not work for us anymore.
    – Are you aware of a ranked list of cities by cost of housing, not cost of living.
    – Curious how Toronto stacks against US cities per ft2 selling price
    – Most indexes I find take total cost of living into account and use apartment rental rates
    – I just saw one that ranks Toronto 23rd most expensive city in N.A, seems way too low given the bubble.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 16:59h, 27 April Reply

      Thank you Dan. Congrats on the new member of the family. Yes, so many people are facing the decision to leave the GTA entirely. Might be agonizing at first, but it might be better for your kids. With the Internet, they won’t miss much. What do you think of Calgary? Buy low and and wait for oil to come back? Isn’t that how big fortunes are made? I don’t know of any such lists but perhaps I should make one:). What’s the first place that comes to mind when you think about moving?

  • Consumers Buying Behaviour Has Changed - Small Business Web Design
    Posted at 22:14h, 31 July Reply

    […] From banking to clothing to hailing cabs to finding auto parts, they’re using their smartphones or laptops to buy, interact, and stay informed. They would do everything online if they could including buying real estate or mortgages. […]

  • Parastoo Roshany
    Posted at 22:55h, 01 October Reply

    Hi Gord
    How do you see the market for toronto now?

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 12:00h, 03 October Reply

      Hi Pary,

      My guess is we’ll see a continued decline overall this fall with the luxury market seeing a bigger drop. The liberal’s vacant home tax would be pathetic, just a psychological tactic to scare away Asian buyers. The overall Canadian market isn’t strong which indicates the economy isn’t great. The Toronto market has a lot of downward momentum that could continue right through to spring. Vancouver has bounced back from government meddling so maybe by spring Toronto can do it too. Can Toronto continue to be isolated from the Canadian economy? The NAFTA deal is what could send the Toronto Housing Market and the economy crashing. Overall, homeowners would be wise to sell because prices are high and availability limited. Why wait for lower prices in 6 months?

  • Lavanya
    Posted at 23:01h, 28 November Reply

    Hi Gord,

    Do you think the house fall will continue in 2018?

    I am planning for rental property is it the right time since the prices went down.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 19:03h, 29 November Reply

      Hi Lavanya. Some believe the sky over Toronto will fall in 2018, but with rentals disappearing, it’s safe to say rental income property owners will get their price. Prices won’t go down, and may actually boom if the economy takes off in 2018. Buying a rental income property, living in the upper floor and getting tenants to help with the mortgage is just plain smart. That helps with the housing crisis as well! Good luck with your rental property.

  • Kesh
    Posted at 20:03h, 02 December Reply

    Hi Gord, Thanks for sharing your insights on the market.
    I’m a first time buyer and i’m exploring to purchase a condo in downtown Toronto. A one decent 550sqft condo sells for about 450k (which i find absurd). Would you advise waiting till mid 2018, with the new stress test rules, in hopes that the prices will decrease? I can’t justify paying so much, but at the same time the prices seem to be going up every month.
    Thanks!

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 13:00h, 03 December Reply

      Hi Kesh. You’re welcome. I can’t advise you however if you check the Toronto condo market during February, you’re giving the market time to bottom out. Anything under $500k will in extreme demand because of the stress test rules. $900 a square foot is scary, especially for a 1 bedroom. However, immigration is rising fast, there’s not much inventory, and there is a lot of reason to consider the possibility of a housing boom rather than a housing crash. The government doesn’t want to sincerely increase supply, so they’re going to try to kill demand. That’s where they run the risk of killing an economy that’s still dependent on real estate. But Millennials need somewhere to live as do all these new immigrants. The question you should consider before buying is will Trudeau and Wynne get routed out of office before they create a recession? Are you investing or do you need to live in the unit?

  • sadaf khan
    Posted at 05:22h, 10 January Reply

    Hi Gord. Thanks for this informative piece. Its best info I’ve found on the net. I plan to invest in a $250K – $300K property in Ontario without living in it as I am in UAE. Which town of Ontario do you suggest I should invest in to keep my rental income coming, along with chance of property appreciation. Toronto is surely very expensive now so we are think about these towns: Oshawa, Guelp, berries or Milton…what would you do if you had this much of savings and wanted to invest in Ontario Market for 2 years

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 10:30h, 10 January Reply

      Hi Sadaf, Thanks and as you saw, the economy is fairly strong so towns well outside the GTA might be the best bet for a 2 year time frame. Check out Orillia. This is a town that never took off which is a shame because it’s right on the highway and Lake Couchiching, close to cottage country, and prices are low. They’ve remodeled the town park waterfront and it still has a nice small town feel. Here’s an example:https://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/ontario/orillia/120-dunlop-street/7142115/mls30615008/ of a house near the town. $300k is about as low as you’ll get. The Orillia housing market could take off as “stress tested out” homebuyers get desperate for an affordable home to buy further out from the GTA.

  • Sandy
    Posted at 13:20h, 21 March Reply

    Hi Gord ,
    I am first time home, looking to buy Bungalow in Stoney creek Hamilton area, Do you think it is good time to invest in or buy home at this time. I am planning to rent all home except one room for myself. i am hearing prices will go down bit, not sure this is correct time to buy home or not.
    You suggestion will be helpful.
    Thanks
    Sandy

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 19:57h, 21 March Reply

      Hi Sandy, I was just reading a post on Bnn.ca about how happy a couple who invested in rental housing investors were. They got their mortgage paid off and were living a lifestyle with retirement they couldn’t get any other way. If you’re becoming a landlord, make sure you do tenant screening really well. The economy in the Hamilton area and the housing market have been the best anywhere. It’s an excellent area with the escarpment and everything. Assuming you can afford the property, there are plenty of high paying tenants available. The rental squeeze won’t end, so you can pick and choose. Long term, it’s the smartest move to make. Unless, your tenant is prone to financial difficulty. One room for yourself? You’d better make a separate entrance thing, do it right, and it should change your life. Take a look at my posts over at ManageCasa and get immersed in the world of property management. Even if the market collapses, you’ll likely be fine if you manage your finances well. You can afford this right?

  • Michael Stryker
    Posted at 11:56h, 01 May Reply

    Hi Gord,

    Do you think the detached home price in Mississauga/Milton will be on the rise into 2019 and 2020?

    Mike

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 16:15h, 01 May Reply

      Hi Mike, I would say yes, see the https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/mississauga-real-estate-forecast/ post on those trends. Milton has no room to grow with everyone wanting to live there. They’ll get the free trade deal resolved and Doug Fords new plan to expand northward into farm country will stimulate the economy like crazy. Detached in Mississauga/Milton are rare finds so not surprising Milton has the 3rd lowest days on market in the GTA. Once Ford is in, the prices will rise because he probably will turn the economy on.

  • Claudette Leg
    Posted at 10:40h, 08 June Reply

    Hello Gord,
    It is the day after a majority win for PC. How will this affect real estate in Niagara Peninsula in the next year?
    Taking into account what happened in 1990, 2008, that happened quickly, is this what we are seeing now,
    housing prices high, mortgage rates escalating,…..?

    Will March 2019 be too late to sell before we feel the effect of the bubble…

    thank you …Claudette

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 10:57h, 09 June Reply

      Hi Claudette, Yes, Ford’s in but he didn’t say what he would do. Everyone was so desperate to get rid of Wynne they didn’t bother asking. Until he says something, we don’t know. He’s still small patatos compared to Trump and the cancelled NAFTA. I guess the question is, can he do anything about fast rising unemployment, interest rates, and no export markets?

  • Mia
    Posted at 20:24h, 13 June Reply

    Montreal has so low price on condos…
    I would love to move there

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