Boston Real Estate Market
Is it a good time to buy a house or condo in Boston?
The data is somewhat conflicting depending on the source. Redfin, GBAR and Zillow are showing prices trending down fast so it seems the market will need some support or this could get grim in September.
The market was hot and it might more accelerant poured on it soon.
Given the high mortgage rates and high prices, you’d have to say this is the worst time to buy. However, Boston homes are in demand, even during this difficult period. It’s driven by shortages for sure, but also by demographics and the desperation of many to own their own property (Millennials).
Either through bank of mom and dad, or via creative financing, many are finding ways to buy. Given prices are rising, who can really say it isn’t a good time to buy a home?
With home prices and sales up in July, Boston remains a sellers market. Across all sizes of homes, prices are up. The more bedrooms, the greater the price lift.
Zillow’s July Housing Report
Zillow’s Boston housing market report shows strong price growth and they believe that growth will continue in 2025. Their report revealed that that average home price in Boston reached $763,220, up 3.9% from last year. They forecast an increase but won’t commit to how much.
The average house in Boston sold at $815,819 in July. The median list price hit $921,650 and 45% of sales happened under list price.
Redfin shows slightly different numbers with an average for all home types at $830,000 median price with single detached houses at $850,000, down 6.5% year over year, and falling fast, in July. Is the market just spooked for now and will jump when the FED announces rate cuts? Boston homes in their system suffered a 19.4% drop year over year, yet are still selling quickly at 17 DOM.
Most people leaving Boston are heading to Florida or New Hampshire. Most of those moving to Boston are from New York, Connecticut, Washington DC, or California. If you own a Boston home, hoping to move to Florida, check out the FL housing market forecast for trends and prices there. Florida’s not a bad destination, and you should live their once in your life.
If you’re a house hunter, hoping to find a new home in the Greater Boston Area, it will be tough. And for the average Boston home, with an 800,000 mortgage your mortgage payment will be $1700 greater than it was 3 years ago. However, with many Boston homeowners facing refinancing it could mean selling or even face foreclosure. Add on more taxes in 2024, and it just seems impossible that home prices were rising in the summer.
Greater Boston Association of Realtors Report
GBAR’s July report shows the median Boston home sold price fell $35,000 in July to $925,000 from $960,000, its peak in June. Single family home sales stayed just level from June’s totals at 1230 units, while condo sales fell slightly to 939 units.
Inventory of houses fell slightly for the 3rd straight month to 1526 units while condo listings fell for the 2nd straight month to 1953 units. New listings of houses fell sharply from 1447 in June to 1003 units in July. New listings of condos fell even more from 1798 units in June to 1034 in July, and contrasts to about 2,000 new listings 3 years ago for both condos and houses.
So this data gives us all the views we actually need.
Typically, at this point in the year, we see prices and sales plummet with the end of the summer selling season. However, one of the most significant drivers of home sales is mortgage rates and how they’re trending. The media is all abuzz about the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in rates which could send mortgage rates downward. Banks are far from certain whether inflation will be contained, but at this point, it looks good for the rest the 2024 forecast.
For 2025, the Boston real estate market might have a much different look. If rates do trend down 2% as some economists say, then home sales should increase significantly as lockedin homeowners find a way to unload their high priced properties. Given prices are rising right now, the forecast has to be for significant price rises.
A countertrend to that stems from other economists who believe the US will enter a recession, and if so, it would dry up some demand and pullback on offers for even the largest homes listed.
A lot depends on the US election, however, both Presidential candidates are making statements about taxes and spending that would stimulate jobs growth, earnings rises, and home sales. It’s diffciult to get too negative about the future outlook.
Boston Economy Strong and Well Supported
Boston is a dynamic economy which will have more to offer as 2025 approaches. From education to tech to military, there is demand against a weaker supply of housing. That might lead to a price bubble.
Boston has so much to offer newcomers with good schools, plenty of recreation, and one of the most successful economies in the US. It’s a city with resourceful entrepreneurs, a sense of competition, and a keen accent on productivity. And as you can imagine, it is one of the richest single-family housing markets in the country.
Boston’s GDP has risen strongly post-pandemic although slipping to annual rate of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. It’s something to concern buyers, but is far from a crash indicator. The median household income in Massachusetts is $96,505, the third highest in the US. And many believe Boston’s stability and other key demand factors make it less vulnerable to housing market correction or crash.
Yet its population of 4.34 million in the Greater Boston Area and around 700,000 in Boston City is split 65/35 in renters vs owners. Which is understandable given the lofty selling prices as you’ll see below. This generates interest from real estate investors seeking a stable market with high rental income.
Metro Boston Report from GBAR
(report coming soon)
This is the latest one published for June 2024.
City of Boston
(report coming soon)
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How Do Boston Home Prices Compare?
Compare prices here to cities such as San Diego, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, Dallas, Denver, Atlanta, New York, Miami and Tampa.
Investors might want to review properties outside of Boston city such as Easton, Lawrence, Worcester, Lynn, Salem, Stoughton, Framingham, Brockton, and Dedham. They’re nice communities and there’s plenty of property to build on and demand is expected to be consistent for single-family homes.
Questions: “should I buy a house right now?” or even “should I sell my house” in Boston aren’t easy to answer. To help with a sell decision, see the post on selling tips and best renovation for ROI and where to move to.
What Supports the Boston area Economy?
Boston has a strong regional economy bolstered by transportation, tourism, financial services, and increasingly venture capital. Boston is becoming the Silicon Valley of the north with major influx of funding for startups in FinTech, MedTech and EduTech. Ultimately, all decisions to buy a home in Boston relate back to the US economy, US housing market, and the Massachusetts economy.
Have a good look at the State of Massachusetts and the Boston Housing market. You can find more at GBREB. The outlook is for continuing high prices and limited availability. You’ll need to work closely with your Boston area Realtor to get first dibs on homes for sale.
See more on the full Housing Market Outlook , Housing Market Crash Timeline , and the 5 Year Real Estate Forecast.
