Stock Market Forecast

Stock Market Predictions

Stock Market Today – Tuesday Dec 7

All the indexes are rocketing again Tuesday after a major upswing on Monday.  The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are soaring.  The rise is due to increasing certainty about the lack of potency of the Omicron Virus.

Experts believe its weakness makes it good for human immunity, that it will help with herd immunity. And two biotech companies have presented potential antibody treatments for the variant. This is excellent news and it may be the push we to roar into 2022.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has been looking for a big year end rally and we might be in that full on this week. Today is a great day for the markets.

A very disappointing US jobs report and Omicron spread fears had pushed stock prices down last week and low and behold, we’re whipsawing back up.  That will change the December jobs report and outlook considerably.  This is a very positive turn for the better and investors seem to know it.

The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ are up 1.68%, .99% and .36% respectively. Even the Russell 2000 is up again.   OPEC announced added production but it’s likely just to appease politicians short term. Next year, supply levels will be tight and oil stocks will do well.

Everyone is thinking this is a buy the dip moment and it likely is. See the charts below for best stocks to buy.

Stock Market Forecast/Outlook 2022

As 2021 comes to a close, investors are looking ahead, gathering experts projections for 2022 prices. Most believe big earnings are over and interest rates will rise. Consider that the recovery hasn’t really started, there are supply chain issues, stimulus spending hasn’t started, and corporate earnings have lots of room for growth next year.

The gloom and doom pessimism is overstated. The current US government is facing elections in 2022 and they will do an about face on economic suppression. Their policy of causing inflation and then raising rates to fight it will cost them next November. The net result is they will begin to support economic growth while carrying out more tapering.

Forecasts for the S&P

Bank of America believes the S&P will be flat next year rising only to 4600. On the other hand Goldman Sachs’ predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 5,100 (+12%) by the end of 2022. That’s well down from 21% growth during 2021.  JPMorgan is projecting a 10% S&P gain to 5,050. Morgan Stanley is predicting an S&P drop from 4500 now to 4400 in 12 months.

Market Changes This Week

This week brought both anxiety and discouragement to the markets.  Today was particularly awful.  However, what drives optimism is the continuing recovery. Omicron is a threat, but it doesn’t appear to be the deadly variety everyone was reacting to.

The housing market forecast is a little brighter too with strong price growth forecasts, and more construction is expected. Some advisors are bullish on housing construction stocks.

Holiday spending is hitting record highs and consumers have lots of cash. They’re pessimistic right now, but as spring approaches and Covid fades, the pace of spending, employment and production will increase.

As the supply chain issues ease this winter and booster shots get administered, return to work will be in full swing. GDP should grow modestly in 2022 by 2.1%.  Stimulus funding might be delayed until the spring. But some sort of deal will get struck and stimulus will power growth. Big picture looks good. Interest rate rises are off in the future and when the Fed tries to raise them, the government will be hit with a torrent of hate. In an election year, it’s doubtful they would have the courage to do it.

Stock prices growth next week and for December will be subdued. Still, there are opportunities for buying the dip as anxious investors sell off and take their profits.  The outlook for January, February and March will brighten.

See more on the outlook for the next 3 months, the 6 month spring 2022 and 5 year stock market outlook are still positive. The government will spend to keep America thriving. Today’s job numbers report is solid giving the market some positive news and the Omicron threat is losing steam.

Current Major Stock Indexes

S&P 500 : 4,578 ↓
Dow Jones 30 : 34,464 ↓
Nasdaq : 15,348 ↓
Russell 2000 : 2,195 ↓
Crude Oil : $66.29 per barrel ↑
Gold : $1,764 per ounce ↑
US Dollar : $96.16 ↑

Economists view of the recovery (6 month 5 year and 10 year outlook) is a little weaker and some speculators may be pulling out, or at least preparing to invest differently. Lots of volatility, so those who aren’t long term investors are confused about what to buy next.

Communications, Energy, Financials, Material and Industrial stocks were the big losers last week. Read more on best stocks to buy, and more about what’s driving this market below.

For investors, it is still a challenge to search and find the best stocks to buy.  Some stock investment advisors such as Jim Cramer are negative about buying the dip. They’re getting bearish. If investors stop believing this is not the bottom of this downturn, then we could see stock prices really decline. Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s Global Advisors head of research however is on the other side saying right now is a good time to buy the dip.

Surprisingly the Tesla stock price isn’t down much, while Bitcoin is down $1400 since Friday morning.

Best Performing Stocks in Last 30 Days

We laughed at a potential stock market crash, but todays at least keep us sharp on market reactions.  Long term focused investors probably aren’t sweating too much over this. Check on more crash proof stocks.

Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Managing Director and Sr. Portfolio Manager speaks with Yahoo Finance about the markets and outlook for 2022.

 

Americans are travelling again, and spending for Xmas, which could point to an active party season. That could point to some serious issues with Covid 19 as a whole, and we know the market overreacts to infection rate news.

There’s lots of political folly suppressing some stocks (i.e., oil stocks and bitcoin stocks) but the fundamentals of demand and supply will lift them back. Don’t bet against oil and Bitcoin. Technology and global fiscal problems will drive adoption of Bitcoin. It’s passed the critical mass point and you should have crypto in your long term strategy.

However, you’ll find many other gems as your best stocks picks heading into the next 3 months , 6 months, and next 5 years.

Covid outbreaks and inflation or not, the stock markets should continue to do well in 2022, with the Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ constantly bumping up against record highs. 2023 is a little dicey due to political squabbles. But US GDP should be much higher and the jobs reports are getting brighter. Supply chain issues just ease the China trade deficit, so they may actually be a positive going forward.

The Dow has been skittish, with inflation and high material costs and supply chain problems marring the delivery of products. NASDAQ has been doing alright as long as there’s no mention of higher interest rates.

Best Stock Picks

Everyone is challenged with picking winners now. You could buy ETFs and mutual funds if you want be be safe, but they’re down right now.  That makes you wonder what’s going to happen in 2022.  Which equities are the best stocks to buy right now?

Definitely visit Barchart.com to get a good picture of the best performing stocks including those with the best weighted alphas. It’s important to know which are hot and find out why.  As you can see the energy stocks are hot because smart buy the dip investors are grabbing them up at bargain prices.  2 years from now, they’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

I’m not Cathy Woods, but I think cryptocurrency and oil stocks are golden. The Democrats might have their quest to sell climate change as part of their branded propaganda, as a rallying call, but the rest of the world only cares about food on the table. Any anti-oil participation will be short lived as the petroleum release agreements.

Most investors want high growth stocks but it seems they’re taking a beating right now. This is where the buy the dip opportunity comes in. Smart investors are experts at buying the dip.

Right now Bitcoin, Bitcoin stocks and oil stocks are bargains. The reasoning behind the eventual acceptance of cryptocurrency is solid. Crooked governments like China will fight Crypto because they only understand their fiat currency and how they manipulate/print it to save their butts. But crypto is an advanced currency that serves a multitude of purposes.

Further, there is nothing to say that every country can’t have their own cryptocurrency which is where we’re headed. As long as governments can print more free money, they have no opposition to it.  So what happens to Bitcoin? Bitcoins is evolved and buyers like it. That has value.

Tesla might not survive the EV evolution but people like the Tesla because it represents some kind of technology and culturual wave they think they’ll benefit from.  So Tesla  will be around for a while before the next generation gets rid of Elon. Today TSLA is down hard. Powerful brands have big value, such as Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple. They do last, especially if they can keep their monopolies. You can invest in Faangs but you won’t get rich.

You’ll only get rich in oil stocks and cryptocurrency. This is a buy the dip opportunity.

Investors are in volatile period and more are looking the best stock market forecast for insights and guidance.   See the 3 month, 6 month, 5 year and 10 year outlooks for ideas. With the recovery in progress, added stimulus spending, and clearing of the supply chain bottlenecks, the economic forecast looks good.

Consider that inflation isn’t really a big problem for corporations who pass the cost onto consumers, and Americans have plenty of savings and are returning to work. That paints a robust scenario for all sectors.

Rising employment is positive, and reduced Fed spending will keep the economy from overheating. Certainly politicians and the media can create negative waves, but investors just seem to shrug it all. Experts and hedge fund managers bad mouth individual investors, but this is the era of the individual investor.  Investors don’t require advisors and are using do it yourself resources of the big stock market websites to help with the best stocks to buy.

It should be pointed out that the S&P is just recovering from what it was at 14 years ago. The S&P is where hedge fund managers and advisors through their money.  Take out the few best performing stocks such as IBM, and the S&P looks bad. Clearly, money has pursued other more profitable ventures.

You’re on the hunt for the next best thing in investments, and I hope I can help you find it. Myself, I’ve purchased a Canadian oil stock called Athabasca Oil and Canadian cryptocurrency company HIVE. Canadian oil stocks are worth investigating (not advising you to buy) because the Republicans will open up to Canadian oil pipelines when they return to office.

Hive operates in low cost, cool climate Canada, and has taken on $100 million in new financing to make them a major Bitcoin and Ethereum mining company.  They’re smart and being competitive. Bitcoin just reached another record near $70,000 per coin. Amazing potential, but big risk. See more Bitcoin stocks.

These companies have been deeply held back and therefore have the biggest upside should the oil market return. When the price of oil surpasses $100 and stays, these companies will be immensely profitable.  As the Canadian pipeline is built to the coast, that supply will find a global market.

There is no way the world can operate without oil.  Suppressions of oil simply raises prices and damages economies. Oil and Nat gas are needed to help produce the electricity the green revolution devices need (EVs and crypto mining).

Last week, investors seemed undeterred by Fed tapering, rising bond prices, supply woes, American vaccination rate, rising energy prices, and government debt and deficits.  The bull run will continue. Job losses were expected last week, the reverse happened. It was an excellent jobs report. and it prospects of bringing back jobs from China is improving too.

Top Recommended Stocks This Week

Looking for the latest stock prices and best stocks to buy?More experts believe inflation might not be so transitory and energy prices could make this a painful winter for consumers. However, analysts such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believe the big rally is on and he’s confident Bitcoin price will hit $100k.  A bitcoin forecast price of $100k isn’t outlandish now and experts believe Coinbase is a good bet too. The only stock that disappointed was Tesla, but Tesla is the tops this week. Lots of volatility.

Definitely, the oil and gas markets are the big topic as we enter winter. Millions of people can’t afford high nat gas prices and economic issues will come to a boil soon.

Yahoo Finance reported that Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley-National, said “What we have done, in large part, by having massive aggregate demand outpacing aggregate supply is likely not destroyed demand. We likely delayed demand… And I think that elongates the economic cycle into ’22.”  That makes for a strong stock market forecast for 2022 in the US, but perhaps not as bright a China stock market forecast.

Top 30 Stocks to Buy

These stocks are performing well over the 1 month, and year to date period. Stocks to take seriously right now.

Forecasts 3 Months to 10 Years

If the US government and GOP stay calm, we’ll only suffer a slow 3 month period and then it’s back to the races for the next 6 months, next 5 years and next 10 years. The forecast for Monday opening and next week is to the upside. Earnings reports are still coming in stronger than predicted, for most stocks anyway.

As I predicted a few Democrats did not support the 2500 page spending bill so the $3.5 Trillion big spending party won’t happen. Now it’s $1.75 Trillion and its full of items the Republicans don’t want. They might kill it completely if some the Dems balk on it. The debt default vote and spending bill will happen all on the same day in December, designed to pressure. So, likely one of them will be dead.

We spoke of the stock market crash catalyst and right now, that catalyst is political. Explore the crash signals that may play into how long you’ll be keeping your stocks. See the 5 year and 10 year forecast and starting thinking deeper into the future. That day will come.

Combine the unsettled activity this week with lower consumer confidence, debt ceiling defaults, political gamesmanship, persistent inflation, high energy prices, out of reach housing prices, fears of rising interest rates, reduced Fed spending, and a prolonged pandemic slowdown, and you can understand why markets might sag.

However, predictions still say 2022 will be a very good year. The pandemic ruined the 2019 party, but it will disappear globally by next spring as more vaccines are issued.  That means you might want to be ready to buy this next big dip and find the best stocks to buy.  Check out the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ posts for opportunities, and discover more about Bitcoin, Tesla,  Apple, Oil stocks, and the 2022 best picks page for more great stocks to buy.

Although markets sprung back from the recent dip, there is plenty more volatility coming in the next 6 months. October is often a bad month, but again, it creates buying opportunities. So, for smart investors, it’s more like a feast!

 

Utilities, energy and real estate lead the way on Tuesday. Watch oil stocks again this week. Of course, check out the today’s Bitcoin price too and review Bitcoin stocks.

Top Market Sectors

Energy and Consumer Discretionaries outperform by far this week.

The question will be about how and if the US economy can regain its competitiveness.  China’s financial and political tensions are beginning to push manufacturing out of China and back to the US.  The supply chain woes (oil, microchips, electronic products) could affect supply for more than a year. Right now, containers are stuck in US ports and can’t be returned to China. The supply issue could contribute to significant inflation.  A shortage of 80,000 truck drivers is further undermining timely supply to retail markets.

The direction of the US dollar will be important for the 5 Year Forecast. and the 10 year forecast. The outlook is for a rising dollar which will erode US competitiveness, particularly with China. The role of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency may play into US dollar value and into US competitiveness. See the Bitcoin Forecast.

The ending of Federal stimulus checks for tens of millions of Americans is without a doubt affecting sales and consumer confidence. Then there’s inflation and government shutdowns ahead. It’s a bad time for negativity as we enter the holiday shopping season.

Below, you’ll find more charts, data, and insights about the best stocks to buy, and links to valuable resources to help invest wiser and a simple, clear fashion. Data changes week to week and can be a source of confusion.

Stock Market Performance This Week

Today, and this week, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq rose, and word is, that small caps have a better outlook. The Russell 2000 and the small caps are suffering due to the slow pandemic recovery, less travel than expected (Delta variant) and the well publicized high infection rates in some states.

During the last two weeks, a number of key companies in the markets have reported earnings including Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook all reported big jumps in Q2 earnings. Google has consistently beat earnings expectations and the result is continued upward pressure on Google stock price.

And the meaning of new infrastructure isn’t appreciated as much as it should. If the US wants to keep its competitive trade possession and ween off of China, it must have a similar modern economic and business infrastructure. The Republicans claim private business will invest, but such trillion dollar investments can only come from the government. Unfortunately, much of the bill is to prop up social programs. The more they think about the bill, the more likely it will be cancelled.

See more on the best picks for 2022 and best tech stocks to buy and which stocks you may want to part with. Why 2023? 2023 is the year we see interest rates rise and government stimulus easing and quantitative easing finally ending. It can’t go on forever.

Which oil stocks and gold stocks might be a good choice?  If the 3 year, 5 year or 10 year outlook is your interest, you should definitely research 5G stocks.  5G technology will underpin more of the consumer and business communications market. It’s high speed with anywhere connectivity and is spawning many new for profit business models.

What are the Biggest Threats to the Stock Market?

Stock market investors and those invested in the real estate market are trying to visualize the key threats that might cause a lot of pain. If you read the stock market crash report, you’ll get a good look at all the crash signals and factors that may lead to big investment losses.  Pay attention to those stocks that might be good hedges against a correction or downturn and which securities you should not buy.

Aside from inflation, and high gasoline prices, the biggest risk now may be trade with the Chinese communist government. The US and China have intertwined their economies which could be bad news if China should run its ship aground.  Trust in China is very low and the communists decision style is autocratic and sudden such as the regulatory demands this month. Not good for fragile trade relations and investment.

Please do familiarize yourself with all the threats to the market whether you believe in a crash coming or not. The 2022 mid term senate elections will be a critical test of American’s patience. At that time, all of border migration, inflation, housing issues will come crashing down on domestic markets and stock prices.

Will There Be a Stock Market Crash?

Within a realistic outlook, a stock market crash seems unlikely, however you should still be up on all the factors as they change and combine to present threats to the markets.  Choosing stocks that will survive a crash is good and you should know more how to hedge a crash as smart management of your IRA, 401k or RRSP.

Predictions: As for today and tomorrow, next 3 months, next 6 months, or next year, the outlook is positive but maybe not to the satisfaction of some investors. With such bubbly activity, the worry is a high speed wobble (volatility) and a crash of the stock markets, and perhaps even crashing the housing market. This turbulence will reach the housing market and encourage homeowners to sell their house fast.

Retail sales rose only .6% in June, so it looks like the great overheating is overdone. GDP for the first quarter was up 6.4%. The economy may be growing at above 10% rate this 2nd quarter. The cyclical change is still rolling along which is why investors are feeling confident. However, there’s a lot of phoniness in this market with Tesla, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, AMC and other stocks flying high.

Which are the best stocks to buy today/tomorrow or in the next 6 to 9 months?  Which will be hottest stocks during the coming fall season?  There are other stocks not reflected in today’s hot Wtd Alphas but will perform well in 2022.

Top Losing Stocks

Red is never a good color in business or finance. Here’s a quick look at the worst performers, stocks you shouldn’t buy. Beware of biopharma, therapeutics and bioscience stocks. It’s wise to note which stocks really sink when investors feel good.

Looking for good stocks to buy? See more on 5G stocks , FAANGs, top stocks for your 401k investment. See more about Google stock price Apple Stock price Facebook stock price , and Amazon stock price.

Best ETFs?

Those investors unable to pick big winning individual stocks are turning to ETFs in droves. The new Bitcoin ETF has caught their fancy and oil etfs have too. Check out Oil ETFs too.

Investu says you can avoid picking individual inflation boosted stocks by investing in these funds:

  • IShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE: GSG)
  • Global X Internet of Things ETF (Nasdaq: SNSR)
  • Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE: VNQ)
  • Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB)
  • SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

Tech has been hot. Investors should investigate the best tech stocks, including Facebook, Amazon and Tesla. Tesla is up $21 in the last 2 day. Check out the oil stocks, 5G stocks and find those that are ready rise in value.

US GDP to Grow 7.9% in 2021

US Gross Domestic production grew 6.4% in the 1st quarter, and 6.6% in Q2, no doubt meeting the approval of investors. However, GDP forecast for 2022 is 3.52%.

Is anything still holding back the stock markets right now? Three things: resistance to $5 Trillion spending plan, Fed tapering, and the belief that interest rates have to go up sometime. Smart investors look 6 months to 5 years down the road to when today’s decisions will be experienced in reality.

Inflation a Threat on the Horizon?

Governing politicians and other “experts” told us inflation is transitory.  However, with Trillions in government spending forecast for the coming years, and low interest rates continuing, along with supply chain bottlenecks, it is fertile ground for record breaking inflation.  The danger here is the government overreacting to the inflationary trend and sending negative waves into the economy. Overreacting to the oil sector (while China and Russia ignore) is one sign the US government isn’t poised and in control.

“With the economic outlook brightening, Covid-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become an intriguing alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

You should be hedging your investments with good stock selection. Charlie Munger says diversification is for idiots.  Pick the best horses to win.  Everyone seems to believe inflation is going to be an issue for the economy and for listed companies. Here’s a few stocks CNBC/Insider Monkey believes will weather the inflation storm:

  1. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
  2. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)
  3. Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW)
  4. Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)
  5. Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)
  6. Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY)
  7. Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM)
  8. Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)
  9. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL)
  10. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE)
  11. The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)
  12. Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE: ASPN)
  13. Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS)

3 Month Market Forecasts

See more on the new outlook for October, November, December in anticipation of strong economic performance for the remainder 2021, heading into 2022.

Factors affecting the Stock Market

  • economy had a meager showing in the 2nd quarter 2021
  • inflation rises and low interest rates pushing treasury and bond prices down
  • markets climbed as investors seem optimistic
  • corporate earnings are doing well in the 3rd quarter
  • Fed says they’re not going to raise rates until 2023 perhaps
  • $5 trillion sitting in money markets
  • Oil prices rising which means higher gasoline prices and transportation and manufacturing costs
  • S&P, and Dow, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 still have room to grow
  • new government injecting possibly $5 trillion into the economy?
  • jobs reports okay but not great

5 Year Long Term Forecast is Optimistic

Just a little discussions on the 5 year stock market forecast (and 5 year housing market forecast ) look really good too because the American consumer is well employed as business is rebuilt from the ground up. Intent to buy homes is strong and construction rates will grow fast through the coming spring as labor and supply shortages ease.

The latest US jobs report is good. The 2022 to 2026 5 year projections are not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales and wishful thinking over the 5 year term.

Bank and Broker Forecasts

Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace through 2021 (so far so good) and predicts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings.

Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Some believe they’re a good buy during a coming market correction. Buy the correction they say.

Final thought?  2022 looks really good, but if global markets crash due to lingering Covid infections, a stock market crash and housing market crash would be simultaneous. Optimism is a great catalyst, but you can see how periodic reality reaches the investor masses once in a while. Let’s cross our fingers for smooth sailing ahead.

More interesting insight: 6 Month Stock Forecast | Stock Market Today | 5 Year Stock Market Forecast  |  Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market CrashBest Stocks to Buy | 3 Month Stock Market Predictions

 

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2 Comments

  1. Interesting article, not sure what the best investment tool is, to plan investment in markets or extraction from markets. As I got caught badly with the dip in March.
    Given nobody can really predict the future .

    I wonder how accurate S&P500 forecasts are as a starting point for planning, is there any history to show the accuracy of such forecasts ?

    1. Thanks Bruce. Good question. There’s not much available on forecaster’s S&P historic prediction success. If they’re not boasting about it, they may not have even beaten the market. There’s no telling about the political factors but right now, the relationship with China is heading down. That will benefit the S&P and Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ seems to be already ahead of the curve. And if President Trump doesn’t get elected, the markets will likely collapse. Investors will evacuate the US markets.

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