Stock Market Forecast

Stock Market Predictions & Forecast

Amazing Week: Brighter Stock Market Forecast

The Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 had one of its best days since March last week and was up nicely on the week as a whole. Excellent earnings reports, softer inflation reports, and okay jobless report buoyed the markets. US Covid cases are falling.

Investors seem undeterred by Fed tapering, rising bond prices, supply woes, American vaccination rate, rising energy prices, and government debt and deficits, and the bull run continues. They’re seeking euphoria. Looking for the latest stock prices and best stocks to buy? See below.

The experts believe inflation might not be so transitory and energy prices could make this a painful winter for consumers. However, analysts such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believe the big rally is on and he’s confident Bitcoin price will hit $100k.

Definitely, the oil and gas markets are the big topic as we enter winter. Millions of people can’t afford high nat gas prices so the political outfall will be great. Consumers are in denial, but the resentment will get loud and all of this will hurt corporate profits and stock prices will decline.

America’s truck drivers will be the first to complain about gas prices as it takes $100 to $150 to fill a big pickup tank. This will likely hurt global economic growth, China growth and US economic health at a tender time and will dampen the US unemployment rate too.

Stock Market Last WeekIf the US government and GOP stay calm, we’ll only suffer a slow 3 month period and then it’s back to the races for the next 6 months, next 5 years and next 10 years. The forecast for Monday opening and next week is to the upside. Earnings reports are coming in stronger than predicted.

The predicted fall stock market correction is still a possibility on given the US government’s worry list.  A few Democrats are saying they won’t support the 2500 page spending bill. The Republicans don’t want it, during what is becoming a post pandemic economic boom. The Feds are sticking to tapering.  If the Dems don’t back down on the ludicrous items (social infrastructure) they want to spend on, a debt default in December is likely.

Major Indexes in the past 12 months

We spoke of the stock market crash catalyst, and right now, that catalyst is political. Explore the crash signals that may play into how long you’ll be keeping your stocks. See the 5 year and 10 year forecast and starting thinking deeper into the future. That day will come.

Combine the unsettled activity this week with lower consumer confidence, debt ceiling defaults, political gamesmanship, persistent inflation, high energy prices, out of reach housing prices, fears of rising interest rates, reduced Fed spending, and a prolonged pandemic slowdown, and you can understand why markets might sag.

However, predictions still say 2022 will be a very good year. The pandemic ruined the 2019 party, but it will disappear globally by next spring as more vaccines are issued.  That means you might want to be ready to buy this next big dip and find the best stocks to buy.  Check out the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ posts for opportunities, and discover more about Bitcoin, Tesla,  Apple, Oil stocks, and the 2022 best picks page for more great stocks to buy.

Although markets sprung back from the recent dip, there is plenty more volatility coming in the next 6 months. October is often a bad month, but again, it creates buying opportunities. So, for smart investors, it’s more like a feast!

Stock Market Oct 14, 2021:

If we get past this week and next week, and the next 3 months, the 6 month spring 2022 and  10 year stock market outlook is positive. Oil prices are a concern this week having reached above $75 a barrel. That problem won’t go away as the world’s economies begin to heat up faster than the climate.

S&P 500 : 4,438 ↑
Dow Jones 30 : 34,912 ↑
Nasdaq : 14,823 ↑
Russell 2000 : 2,274 ↑
Crude Oil : $81.38 per barrel ↑
Gold : $1,798 per ounce ↑
US Dollar : $94.15 ↑

Material, technology, industrials and financials lead the way on Tuesday. Bank earnings reports were excellent. Since oil and natural gas look like they will rise further, it is strange that they are not leading the charts. Watch oil stocks this week. Of course, check out the today’s Bitcoin price too and review Bitcoin stocks. The way banks and governments are managing themselves, it’s becoming harder to discount global cryptocurrency.

The question will be about how and if the US economy can regain its competitiveness.  The direction of the US dollar will be important for the 5 Year Forecast. and the 10 year forecast. The outlook is for a rising dollar which will erode US competitiveness, particularly with China. The role of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency may play into US dollar value and into US competitiveness. See the Bitcoin Forecast.

Some like Tom Lee of Funstradt are warning of an October correction but it might be November before it kicks in. Sept is the S&Ps worst month and there’s not many catalysts to lift the markets ahead.  The ending of Federal stimulus checks for tens of millions of Americans is without a doubt affecting sales and consumer confidence. Then there’s inflation and government shutdowns ahead. It’s a bad time for negativity as we enter the holiday shopping season.

Below, you’ll find more charts, data, and insights about the best stocks to buy, and links to valuable resources to help invest wiser and a simple, clear fashion. Data changes week to week and can be a source of confusion.

September was a Troubling Month for Stocks

Nasdaq has plunged 3.14% in the last 5 days, and is down 7.8% in the last month.

One expert, Emily Roland, an investment strategist with John Hancock Investment Management suggests that despite the record stock market prices right now, the easy wins of the past may be over. Investors will need to use their own prediction skills to research stocks and sectors well to create winning trades.

For the 6 Month and Long Term Forecast

This week’s volatility may be the new norm, however that does appeal to day traders and those buying on the dip.

Make the next 6 months forecast a study, but don’t take your eye off the ball for the 5 year to 10 year outlook and the 2022 picture .  With oil reaching near $80 a barrel now, Oil stocks look good for the next few years. Is Bitcoin a serious investment possibility? It’s up to $50k again. Find out what’s driving the price of Bitcoin.

Stock Market Performance This Week

Today, and this week, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq rose, and word is, that small caps have a better outlook. The Russell 2000 and the small caps are suffering due to the slow pandemic recovery, less travel than expected (Delta variant) and the well publicized high infection rates in some states.

During the last two weeks, a number of key companies in the markets have reported earnings including Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook all reported big jumps in Q2 earnings. Google has consistently beat earnings expectations and the result is continued upward pressure on Google stock price.

And the meaning of new infrastructure isn’t appreciated as much as it should. If the US wants to keep its competitive trade possession and ween off of China, it must have a similar modern economic and business infrastructure. The Republicans claim private business will invest, but such trillion dollar investments can only come from the government. If Biden can get this through, it will mean a big boost of confidence in the United States.

Here’s your top Mega caps today:

Top Mega Caps today
Mega Caps today. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.com

See more on the best picks for 2022 and best tech stocks to buy and which stocks you may want to part with. Why 2023? 2023 is the year we see interest rates rise and government stimulus easing and quantitative easing finally ending. It can’t go on forever.

Which oil stocks and gold stocks might be a good choice?  If the 3 year, 5 year or 10 year outlook is your interest, you should definitely research 5G stocks.  5G technology will underpin more of the consumer and business communications market. It’s high speed with anywhere connectivity and is spawning many new for profit business models.

What are the Biggest Threats to the Stock Market?

Stock market investors and those invested in the real estate market are trying to visualize the key threats that might cause a lot of pain. If you read the stock market crash report, you’ll get a good look at all the crash signals and factors that may lead to big investment losses.  Pay attention to those stocks that might be good hedges against a correction or downturn and which securities you should not buy.

Aside from inflation, and high gasoline prices, the biggest risk now may be trade with the Chinese communist government. The US and China have intertwined their economies which could be bad news if China should run its ship aground.  Trust in China is very low and the communists decision style is autocratic and sudden such as the regulatory demands this month. Not good for fragile trade relations and investment.

Please do familiarize yourself with all the threats to the market whether you believe in a crash coming or not. The 2022 mid term senate elections will be a critical test of American’s patience. At that time, all of border migration, inflation, housing issues will come crashing down on domestic markets and stock prices.

All stock market investors are watching Bitcoin and hoping for a big dip so they can buy in. But will Bitcoin fall again? Bitcoins price has risen to $58,000. Investors are wondering if it can become the global currency and help them get through the next recession. It’s so smart to investigate. See more on the Bitcoin price forecast.

Will There Be a Stock Market Crash?

Within a realistic outlook, a stock market crash seems unlikely, however you should still be up on all the factors as they change and combine to present threats to the markets.  Choosing stocks that will survive a crash is good and you should know more how to hedge a crash as smart management of your IRA, 401k or RRSP.

Predictionss: As for today and tomorrow, next 3 months, next 6 months, or next year, the outlook is positive but maybe not to the satisfaction of some investors. With such bubbly activity, the worry is a high speed wobble (volatility) and a crash of the stock markets, and perhaps even crashing the housing market. This turbulence will reach the housing market and encourage homeowners to sell their house fast.

Retail sales rose only .6% in June, so it looks like the great overheating is overdone. GDP for the first quarter was up 6.4%. The economy may be growing at above 10% rate this 2nd quarter. The cyclical change is still rolling along which is why investors are feeling confident. However, there’s a lot of phoniness in this market with Tesla, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, AMC and other stocks flying high.

Which are the best stocks to buy today/tomorrow or in the next 6 to 9 months?  Which will be hottest stocks during the coming fall season?  There are other stocks not reflected in today’s hot Wtd Alphas but will perform well in 2022.

Best Stocks to Buy?

Everyone’s focus is always on which are the best stocks to buy right now.  It’s all about picking winners in this market.

Best Stocks to Buy Today
Best Stocks to Buy (Barchart.com)

Top Performing Stocks Year to Date

These best performing stocks this year might reveal some potential buys. Those in the energy sector might be your best 2 year performers with travel and industry starting up again in 2022.

Best Stocks Year to Date, 2021.
Best Stocks Year to Date, 2021. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

Top Losing Stocks

Red is never a good color in business or finance. Here’s a quick look at the worst performers, stocks you shouldn’t buy. Beware of biopharma, therapeutics and bioscience stocks. It’s wise to note which stocks really sink when investors feel good.

Worst Stocks today.
Worst Stocks today. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.com

Looking for good stocks to buy? See more on 5G stocks , FAANGs, top stocks for your 401k investment. See more about Google stock price Apple Stock price Facebook stock price , and Amazon stock price.

Best Tech Stocks to Buy

Pick the best tech stocks including AMD, Autodesk, Verisign, Salesforce, Adobe, Qualcomm and Keysight Technologies.

Best ETFs?

Investu says you can avoid picking individual inflation boosted stocks by investing in these funds:

  • IShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE: GSG)
  • Global X Internet of Things ETF (Nasdaq: SNSR)
  • Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE: VNQ)
  • Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB)
  • SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

Tech has been hot. Investors should investigate the best tech stocks, including Facebook, Amazon and Tesla. Tesla is up $21 in the last 2 day. Check out the oil stocks, 5G stocks and find those that are ready rise in value.

US GDP to Grow 7.9% in 2021

US Gross Domestic production grew 6.4% in the 1st quarter, and 6.6% in Q2, no doubt meeting the approval of investors. However, GDP forecast for 2022 is 3.52%.

Is anything still holding back the stock markets right now? Three things: resistance to $5 Trillion spending plan, Fed tapering, and the belief that interest rates have to go up sometime. Smart investors look 6 months to 5 years down the road to when today’s decisions will be experienced in reality.

Inflation a Threat on the Horizon?

Recent reports of up to 7% inflation in July are alarming, but some experts believe it is transitory.  However, with $5 Trillion in government spending forecast through stimulus, the already inflated money supply has to push prices up further. The housing market surged along with previous spending.

“With the economic outlook brightening, Covid-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become an intriguing alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

Everyone seems to believe inflation is going to be an issue for the economy and for listed companies. Here’s a few stocks CNBC/Insider Monkey believes will weather the inflation storm:

  1. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
  2. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)
  3. Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW)
  4. Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)
  5. Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)
  6. Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY)
  7. Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM)
  8. Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)
  9. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL)
  10. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE)
  11. The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)
  12. Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE: ASPN)
  13. Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS)

3 Month Market Forecasts

See more on the new outlook for October, November, December in anticipation of strong economic performance for the remainder 2021, heading into 2022.

Positive Factors taking the Stock Markets Higher?

We’re wondering which factors can lift the stock market further upward or whether we’re on a downward trajectory?  There is a lot of cash available for spending and consumers are going to spend plenty with the fading of Covid 19.  The antivax movement is weak and will put a strain on enthusiasm and hospital budgets.  The hospitals may not be upset about the extra business, but it may hold back how they typically make their earnings (surgeries, treatments).

  • economy had a solid 6.6% growth in the 2nd quarter 2021
  • inflation rises and low interest rates pushing treasury and bond prices down
  • markets climbed as investors seem optimistic
  • corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
  • Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
  • $5 trillion sitting in money markets
  • Oil prices rising which means higher gasoline prices and transportation and manufacturing costs
  • S&P, and Dow, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 still have room to grow
  • new government injecting possibly $5 trillion into the economy?
  • Covid pandemic persists causing more economic damage
  • jobs reports okay but not great
  • earnings reports so far are strong

5 Year Long Term Forecast is Optimistic

Just a little discussions on the 5 year stock market forecast (and 5 year housing market forecast ) look really good too because the American consumer is well employed as business is rebuilt from the ground up. Intent to buy homes is strong and construction rates will grow fast through the coming spring as labor and supply shortages ease.

The latest US jobs report is good. The 2022 to 2026 5 year projections are not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales and wishful thinking over the 5 year term.

10 year Forecast is Still Promising

Check the 10 year stock outlook and you’ll see debt management concerns for the US government amidst a need to raise interest rates. The 10 year stock market journey will put the focus back on global growth.

Bank and Broker Forecasts

Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace through 2021 (so far so good) and predicts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings.

Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Some believe they’re a good buy during a coming market correction. Buy the correction they say.

Final thought?  2022 looks really good, but if global markets crash due to lingering Covid infections, a stock market crash and housing market crash would be simultaneous. Optimism is a great catalyst, but you can see how periodic reality reaches the investor masses once in a while. Let’s cross our fingers for smooth sailing ahead.

 

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Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2021. Tesla stock price is on fire.

More interesting insight: Stock Market Predictions | 6 Month Forecast | Stock Market Today | 5 Year Stock Market Forecast  | Ten Year Stock Market Outlook | Housing Market | Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market Crash | Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? | Bitcoin Forecast | Bitcoin StocksBest Stocks to BuyBest Stocks to Buy | Stock Prices | 3 to 6 month Outlook | Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market Crash Signals  | Housing Market Predictions 2022 | Oil Price Forecast |  Stock Market Forecast 2022Google Stock Price |  Tesla Stock PriceUS Economic Forecast

2 Comments

  1. Interesting article, not sure what the best investment tool is, to plan investment in markets or extraction from markets. As I got caught badly with the dip in March.
    Given nobody can really predict the future .

    I wonder how accurate S&P500 forecasts are as a starting point for planning, is there any history to show the accuracy of such forecasts ?

    1. Thanks Bruce. Good question. There’s not much available on forecaster’s S&P historic prediction success. If they’re not boasting about it, they may not have even beaten the market. There’s no telling about the political factors but right now, the relationship with China is heading down. That will benefit the S&P and Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ seems to be already ahead of the curve. And if President Trump doesn’t get elected, the markets will likely collapse. Investors will evacuate the US markets.

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