Stock Markets Headed Higher?
The markets closed started the day pessimistically likely due to worrying numbers of Covid 19 infections. As the day progressed, all the majors were up while gold and oil prices fell.
It was a mix of unusual stocks that lead today, with the exception of Moderna which jumps with every Covid surge. Moderna’s one of those stocks that quadrupled in value, and you’re likely hunting for more stocks like that. Maybe wait for Bitcoin when the regulators crush it, then buy.
Everyone is wondering what will support earnings and higher stock prices for the next 6 months. The market has found something to keep it rolling for the next week and month. What will the 6 month forecast bring for investors? Rising earnings, business reopening, Stimulus spending, Xmas season, back to school, and much better Covid Delta numbers? This makes the outlook good, so review the best performing stocks below and the most recommended for your portfolio.
Make the next 6 months forecast a study, but don’t take your eye off the ball for the 3 year and 5 year outlooks. Oil stocks look good for the next few years, but 5G stocks may be the best best. And Bitcoin is a fun gamble? Are you waiting for the dip? Smart investors are looking at stock market forecasts and predictions more seriously.
See the top performing stocks below and the most recommended buys. See reports on the Dow Jones, S&P, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and the FAANG stocks. Google, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla have dominant market leadership, the key to outstanding profit.
What’s lost in the negativity in the markets is the savings of Americans and how they’re beginning to spend. Second quarter vacation spending was up strong and indications are that 3rd quarter will be even better. Inflation is rising, but consumers don’t seem to care, other than rising gasoline prices and utilities.
US wages are rising but not keeping up with inflation which is a positive for companies and investors. Inflation managed well could be a tailwind for investors. Labor shortages are an issue for many companies but as workers return, it becomes less so.
If you’re a non-believer, look at the latest conference board report:
Today, and this week, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq are up, with the Dow Jones reaching toward record level. We’re not out of the Covid 19 threat and market volatility has been up as investors struggle to understand where the markets are headed.
During the last two weeks, a number of key companies in the markets have reported earnings including Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook all reported big jumps in Q2 earnings. Google has consistently beat earnings expectations and the result is continued upward pressure on Google stock price.
The latest earnings reports are likely providing the market with most of its upward momentum. That and J Powell recommitting every day under oath to keep interest rates low.
Experts expectations were positive for these stocks and investors weren’t disappointed.
Microchip shortages, end of stimulus payments, continuing Covid issues, and consumer fatigue have set in. August might not be an outstanding month until we near the return the school to classroom attendance which may signal a bigger return to normal. With an infrastructure deal announced and begun, the markets would definitely pick up with confidence. Nothing like 3 to 5 Trillion infusions of cash to fix everything (for a while).
With the infrastructure deal nearing, it may be more difficult for the media to keep it negative, and we might actually see a jump in stock market indexes. The multi-trillion dollar infrastructure deal is big news and if the Republicans can force the Democrats to keep it real, money could go where business needs it to be.
Stock Market August 03, 2021:
Good employment and earnings reports are sending the indexes higher. The outlook for Tomorrow and next week and the next 6 months looks positive (with big correction worries). Oil is strong and US dollar is rising. Even the Russell 2000 forecast is brightening as small caps rise in price.
S&P 500 : 4,423.15 ↑
Dow Jones 30 : 35,116.40 ↑
Nasdaq : 14,761.30 ↑
Russell 2000 : 2,223.35 ↑
Crude Oil : $70.37 a barrel ↓
Gold : $1,830.30 per ounce ↓
US Dollar : $92.06 ↑
See more on the best picks for 2022 and best tech stocks to buy and which stocks you may want to part with. Why 2023? 2023 is the year we see interest rates rise and government stimulus easing and quantitative easing finally ending. It can’t go on forever.
Which oil stocks and gold stocks might be a good choice? If the 5 year or 10 year outlook is your interest, you should definitely research 5G stocks. 5G technology will underpin more of the consumer and business communications market. It’s high speed with anywhere connectivity and is spawning many new for profit business models.
What are the Biggest Threats to the Stock Market?
Stock market investors and those invested in the real estate market are trying to visualize the key threats that might cause a lot of pain. If you read the stock market crash report, you’ll get a good look at all the crash signals and factors that may lead to big investment losses. Pay attention to those stocks that might be good hedges against a correction or downturn and which securities you should not buy.
The biggest risk now may be trade with the Chinese communist government. The smashing of bloody heads against the wall of steel was just the beginning of that conversation. Trust in China is very low and likely will sink further. If US companies become the new source for buyers in Europe and North America, it is a big positive.
Stocks on the China on Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index have plunged 15% in the last two, mostly due to sudden new regulations. That’s $770 billion wiped out and most of it for US investors. Will the Biden regime tolerate this kind of loss? It’s erratic behavior like this is why investing in China is unwise, even for those with money to burn. It’s the hotel California of investing. Very risky.
Please do familiarize yourself with all the threats to the market whether you believe in a crash coming or not. The 2022 mid term senate elections will be a critical test of American’s patience. At that time, all of border migration, inflation, housing, taliban/issis issues will come crashing down on domestic markets and stock prices.
Investors are into the big tech stocks but the anti-trust hearings could shake out some of them. If the economy expands fast, public pressure to do something about Google, Amazon, Facebook and other monopolies might fade.
DOJ action has faded before with no action so we wonder if this is just more theatre before the three of them plan spacetrips to the Sun. Most investors believe the big tech stocks are a safe haven in a threatening, volatile stock market. As companies see continued growth and earnings, investors may sell their FAANG stocks for small and mid cap tech stocks.
All stock market investors are watching Bitcoin and hoping for a big dip so they can buy in. But will Bitcoin fall again? Bitcoins price has risen $5000 in the last 5 days. See more on the Bitcoin price forecast.
Will There Be a Stock Market Crash?
Within a realistic outlook, a stock market crash seems unlikely, however you should still be up on all the factors as they change and combine to present threats to the markets. Choosing stocks that will survive a crash is good and you should know more how to hedge a crash as smart management of your IRA, 401k or RRSP.
Forecasts: As for today and tomorrow, next 3 months, next 6 months, or next year, the outlook is positive but maybe not to the satisfaction of some investors. With such bubbly activity, the worry is a high speed wobble (volatility) and a crash of the stock markets, and perhaps even crashing the housing market. This turbulence will reach the housing market and encourage homeowners to sell their house fast.
Retail sales rose only .6% in June, so it looks like the great overheating is overdone. GDP for the first quarter was up 6.4%. The economy may be growing at above 10% rate this 2nd quarter. The cyclical change is still rolling along which is why investors are feeling confident. However, there’s a lot of phoniness in this market with Tesla, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, AMC and other stocks flying high.
Top Recommended Stocks to Buy
Barchart gives these stocks a solid buy recommendation:
Which are the best stocks to buy today/tomorrow or in the next 6 to 9 months? Some of the best picks recommended by Barchart reflect the best performing Wtd which you see in this chart below. Which will be hottest stocks during the coming fall season? There are other stocks not reflected in today’s hot Wtd Alphas but will perform well in 2022.
Best Stocks to Buy
Everyone seems to believe inflation is going to be an issue for the economy and for listed companies. Here’s a few stocks CNBC/Insider Monkey believes will weather the inflation storm:
- Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
- AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)
- Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW)
- Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)
- Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)
- Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY)
- Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM)
- Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)
- Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL)
- Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE)
- The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)
- Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE: ASPN)
- Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS)
Most Active Stocks Today
DiDi Global, AMD, Ford, Nokia, AMC, NIO, Tilray, Apple, GE, Bank of America, Lucid and AT&T were most active today. Nikola has some legal issues, and Uber, Tilray, and Facebook stock price headed downward. Cassava Sciences, 360 DigiTech, Citrix, Paypal, Pinterest, Quantumscape, EQT and KE Holdings lost ground in strong trading.
Top Gaining Stocks Today
The most important stock chart for investors is who is rising fastest but keep in mind these are often rises based on recent news events or market signals. It’s not uncommon to see some on the biggest losers within a few days. The markets are volatile. Seeing the gainers/losers every day gives you insight into how other investors are responding/panicking and what events shape trading and prices.
Top Losing Stocks Today
Top losers included Cassava Sciences, 360 Digitech, Citrix, NovoCure, EQT and Nikola. Nikola’s founder was apparently charged with fraud and has been freed on $100 million bail.
Top Sectors to Watch:
Energy, health and industrials are up strongly this week.
Investu says you can avoid picking individual inflation boosted stocks by investing in these funds:
- IShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE: GSG)
- Global X Internet of Things ETF (Nasdaq: SNSR)
- Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE: VNQ)
- Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB)
- SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
Tech has been hot. Investors should investigate the best tech stocks, including Google, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla. Tesla is up $21 in the last 2 day. Check out the oil stocks, 5G stocks and find those that are ready rise in value.
US GDP to Grow 7.9% in 2021
US Gross Domestic production grew 6.4% in the 1st quarter, no doubt meeting the approval of investors. Some are predicting GDP growth to reach near 10% in the April to June quarter. However, GDP forecast for 2022 it is 3.52%.
Is anything still holding back the stock markets right now? Three things: Biden Presidency, inflation, and the belief that interest rates have to go up sometime. Smart investors look 6 months to 5 years down the road.
The Covid 19 infection numbers need to plummet to consistently low levels before investors feel at ease and stats show the 7 day moving average for Covid cases in the US is heading down. A good sign for the economy and markets. Make sure you check out the best stocks to buy, penny stocks, best tech stocks, best 5G stocks, and watch the top gainers and top sectors going. Check out the forecast for next week.
Inflation a Threat on the Horizon?
“With the economic outlook brightening, Covid-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become an intriguing alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
3 Month Market Forecasts
See more on the new outlook for July, August, and September in anticipation of strong economic performance for the 2nd half of 2021. The markets should see growth accelerate during the summer and into the fall as the economy reopens.
Who else is bullish on the US Economy? Goldman Sachs for one. The company foresees GDP rising 6.4% for 2021, pushing the S&P up 14% to 3756, and growing to 4600 in 2022.
The Federal stimulus funds are on their way and there’s little doubt much of it will end up in the market in the next 3 months. Yes, $1.9 to $2.9 Trillion will make a lot of people happy. There’s even plans for $6 Trillion being spent over the next 8 years. Another factor to watch is inflation, which some say will really heat up. Inflation generally makes markets happy.
Positive Factors taking the Stock Markets Higher?
We’re wondering which factors can lift the stock market further upward or whether we’re on a downward trajectory? There is a lot of cash available for spending and consumers are going to spend plenty with the fading of Covid 19. The antivax movement is weak and will put a strain on enthusiasm and hospital budgets. The hospitals may not be upset about the extra business, but it may hold back how they typically make their earnings (surgeries, treatments).
- economy had a solid 4% growth in the 4th quarter 2020
- inflation rises and low interest rates pushing treasury and bond prices down
- markets climbed as investors seem optimistic
- corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
- Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
- $5 trillion sitting in money markets
- Oil price is rising to $63 a barrel
- S&P, and Dow keep reaching new records and NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are next
US dollar is falling
- new government injecting $2.1 trillion in stimulus
- Covid pandemic moving past its worst months?
- trade war with China continues to heat up emotionally
- Facebook, Google and Amazon stocks under pressure of DOJ anti-trust investigations
renter evictions, landlord bankruptcies looming
- jobs reports very strong
- earnings reports so far are strong
5 Year Long Term Forecast is Optimistic
Just a little discussions on the 5 year stock market forecast (and 5 year housing market forecast ) look really good too because the American consumer is well employed and will see plenty of jobs as business is rebuilt from the ground up. Intent to buy homes is strong and construction rates will grow fast through the spring. If the economy stutters, the Biden admin will not be reluctant to give stimulus. Small business will need a transfusion, and it will get one.
The latest US jobs report is excellent. The 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales and wishful thinking over the 5 year term.
Bank and Broker Forecasts
Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace in 2021 and forecasts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, and driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings.
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and LPL Financial see the S&P rising 6% to reach 3,900. Oppenheimer boldly sees it hitting 4300.
Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Some believe they’re a good buy during a coming market correction. Buy the correction they say.
Will Self Directed Investors be the Story in the Next 3 to 6 Months?
The growth of self-directed trading is impressive as day trading investors feel they can find the best stocks on their own. With the level of insight and opinion and stats available online, these self-directed investors are still guided by the same investment pros. It could be Wall Street feels threatened by a change in the investment landscape, with new investment tools, software and advisors becoming more in vogue.
There are plenty of ups and downs recently though to keep them cautious. And the odds of a stock market crash are low right now. If self-directed stock trading is working for you, please let me know in the comments at bottom.
What About the Housing Market Forecast?
The housing market does impact the outlook for stock investment. Certainly, the huge wealth of funds and cash in bank accounts could find its way into home purchases if the economy was solid. So home prices could climb much further. If stock prices went sour, it would immediately affect valuations of new homes and resale properties. Many homeowners would look to sell their house fast and that would send prices downward quickly.
The expectation is that a downturn in stocks reflects bad news overall for the US economy including the new home construction numbers which are down of late. Given all home prices are at all time highs, the risk to the downside is pronounced. It’s a sketchy situation for US home owners and mortgage holders when home prices are so high, and disconnected to the economy. If it happens, a stock market crash and housing market crash would be simultaneous and given the effect of inflationary stimulus in the trillions, the results are worth preparing for.
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000 long term outlook are once again positive. The reason the majors have been doing so well, is due to the struggles of small business.
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Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2021. Tesla stock price is on fire.
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