Gilead Sciences | GILD Stock Forecast The Wuhan Corona Virus…
Stock Market Predictions
Huge pent up demand together with Fed stimulus is strong enough to launch some healthy inflation (and unhealthy too). And the global recovery will only make the US recovery that much stronger. Yet even with vaccinations picking up steam, the Covid virus is making things tough for workers and small businesses. Concerns over rising unemployment and slowing economy should ease the euphoria driving prices.
There’s a lot of speculation and froth in the markets, and we’re hearing growing talk of a debt-fueled bubble and yes, a stock market crash. We’re not hearing much in the media about threats to the economy or the stock market. Buyers should be careful during this bubble phase. P/E ratios are ultra high.
The new Covid variant that spreads faster is picking up steam (and another new one) in the US and it’s going to cause a lot of local economic turmoil. That’s why the next 3 months (January, February and March) will be volatile. It will take some time before Biden’s $3 to 4 trillion cash injection actually gets to those who need it over the next 6 months.
Bank and Broker Forecasts
Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace in 2021 and forecasts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, and driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and LPL Financial see the S&P rising 6% to reach 3,900. Oppenheimer boldly sees it hitting 4300.
Have a look below for the best stocks, top gainers, best sector predictions, and trends to watch. Small caps are getting attention as the Russell 2000 had its best month ever. The S&P 600 is up about 20% during December.
From Real Estate to Biotech to Consumer Discretionary
The belief that the markets have decoupled from the economy is driving confidence for investors in the next 3 months, and then the 6 month forecast is supported by a fast-improving economy.
If you’re investing, it’s wise to look past summer for the best post pandemic stocks including 5G stocks. And right now, the energy and oil stocks are looking interesting, even if Biden is pushing alternative energy. Industry, airlines and other transportation companies still need fuel.
The upward trajectory of the major indexes is still forecasted as the Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P have achieved new record heights. And the Russell index which most investors don’t know exists is become a rising star for investors. Are small caps a risk, or at record lows ripe for purchase ahead of predicted big growth in 2021?
The Big Market Story Recently: Airbnb IPO
The much-awaited Airbnb saw Airbnb’s new stock’s opening price of $68 jump quickly to $146 where it sits this Friday morning. Thomas Yeung of NASDAQ called it well when he said the suggested price at $74 a share was much too low.
He reports that stock analysts expect Airbnb will grow 35% each year, earn $6 billion in revenues by 2022, while enjoying a monopoly-like market position.
Should You Sell Your DoorDash Shares?
Doorcash shares closed at $190 each, 85% above its initial public offering price of $102. While Airbnb looks solid in the post-recession economy, Door Dashes‘ business model doesn’t look as good.
While delivery orders are booming, margins are huge and they have a near-monopoly, you have to question whether Americans will want to order when restaurants, sports stadiums, and bars reopen for business. Everyone will be back out in droves, and traveling too. The vaccinations have started and that should be a negative for Doordash investors.
The record heights for the DOW reflected my summer forecast that the vaccinations would lift the markets. And we’re not even in spring 2021 yet. As good news keep coming out of Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, investors will like the forecast for vaccine stocks more. And investors are driving the Tesla stock price to ridiculous highs of late.
If the Republicans can block Biden’s tax hikes, agree to a potential stimulus deal in late January, and a cash-rich investor pool keeps believing in the US economy for 2021, we will see new records for the DOW, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Small caps are looking good for 2021. See more on the 3 month outlook.
Moderna and Pfizer’s timed announcement of its latest vaccine progress has given the market’s a boost. The rocky road isn’t over yet as Covid 19 cases are soaring out of control. Shutdowns will happen.
Jerome Powell recently called the economic recovery extraordinarily uncertain, which kind of keeps the ugly specter of a stock market crash alive in some investor’s minds. What is Powell really saying?
What are the Top Gainer stocks lately?
Mining stocks dominate the list of best stock performers today.
The 2021 Stock Market Outlook
If the vaccinations are successful and delivered by June, and if the Republicans can block Biden’s tax increase bill, a stock market crash is unlikely.
Optimism reigns supreme:
- rising corporate earnings
- two rounds of stimulus likely
- after a small correction, growing consumer spending will energize earnings and stock prices
- winter season hasn’t turned out too bad for corporate earnings so far
- travel is already picking up and will by June boosting hotels, restaurants, and gasoline sales
- rising consumer confidence as employment grows
- the fear of Covid infections diminishes
- less strain on health care
- surgeries and hospital revenue resume driving demand for medical supplies
We’re still in tough during the next 3 months, but by the next 6 months, the recovery should be in full swing and carry on for many years.
Stock Market Today January 19, 2021:
- S&P 500: 3,798.91 ↓
- Dow Jones 30: 30,930.52 ↓
- Nasdaq : 13,197.18 ↓
- Russell 2000 : 2,151.14 ↑
- Crude Oil: $53.10 a barrel ↑
- Gold: $1,842.20 per ounce
- US Dollar $90.4141 ↑
Here are the best performing Mega Caps
See all the charts below for top gaining stocks.
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And many stock market advisors have called this is a stock market bubble. Tesla has a trailing-twelve-months P/E of 54.90. Its stock price is 54 times its earnings! And of course it’s been climbing continuously to unexpected new heigths. Tesla is a great company, perhaps the next Amazon, but it will be a roller coaster ride for investors.
Last week, the Democrat house announced that they intend to break up big tech and disallow them from selling their products on their own monopolized networks. In response, Apple stock price, Google stock price, Amazon stock price, and other tech stocks fell. Others believe nothing will happen after the election.
With respect to the pandemic, it almost seems like the FDA is in no hurry to approve COVID vaccines and drugs to save lives immediately. Vaccine stocks were down as well. More investors and experts are concerned about a potential stock market crash. See more of the best stocks to buy below.
And 2021 stock market predictions are becoming fewer and far between as a litany of negative factors weigh in. Traditional and technical indicators simply haven’t been useful and investors have to start thinking on their feet with an eye on the big picture. Is this the right time to buy gold stocks and reduce your exposure on the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ?
Tesla Stock Price
While the FAANGS fight the current in troubled waters, you might take a good look at Tesla’s stock price. Of course, wait for a dip if you’re considering buying it.
Tesla, the symbol of new American manufacturing success, had their big battery day event and it was considered a flop. One stock market expert says Tesla’s stock price could crash and the majority of advisers seem to think Tesla is grossly overvalued and in for tough times. They examine fundamentals, but they keep forgetting about Tesla’s incredible market-leading brand.
Market leaders transcend data histories and P/E earnings ratios. The emotion and awe surrounding Tesla’s innovation and Elon Musk’s determination carries the stock just like it does with Google, Facebook, and Apple. Don’t forget about Tesla’s many innovative products such as solar roofs. In a Biden economy solar roofs would be in demand.
Recently, the Fed’s J Powell promised to keep interest rates low, but that didn’t excite investors too much.
And investors and stock advisors are still processing the news from the FED, regarding inflation, and what that potentially means for the US economy. Investors are nervously anticipating the election in 3 weeks, as it will tell us whether the markets will push ahead in 2021 or slide into a market crash.
Stock experts are advising investors to buy more of the FAANG level stocks and less of small business. That’s understandable as the Russell has only been about as good as the Dow lately. It appears more money was chasing the best tech stocks such as Tesla, Apple, BioNTech, and Nvidia. BioNTech released good results from its vaccine tests.
Top Gaining Stocks, Sectors and Factors
The sectors with the most promise appear to be:
- medical and health care (biotech)
- consumer discretionary (travel, entertainment, retail)
- technology (computer hardware/software, and technological service industry companies)
- industrials (manufacturing, consumption and inflation drive commodity prices)
- real estate (builders, brokerages, multifamily, commercial)
- energy stocks (oil, green energy, electricity,
You can invest in promising sectors via sector funds.
Top Performing Sectors
Top Mid and Large Cap Stocks
All stocks except small caps:
Top Performing Mid and Large Caps
Top Performing Small Caps (>$3)
Here’s where you can get rich quick if you make a good pick.
Let’s take a roll call of the markets as of today:
- economy had record growth in 3rd quarter (33% growth)
- market climbed as investors seem optimistic
- corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
- Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
- $5 trillion sitting in money markets
- Oil price is rising
- NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow keep reaching new records
- US dollar is falling
- new govnernemt ready to inject $3 trillion in stimulus
- Covid pandemic moving into its worst months
- trade war with China continues to heat up emotionally
- Facebook, Google and Amazon stocks under pressure of DOJ anti-trust investigations
- renter evictions, landlord bankruptcies looming
- unemployment claims rise after Covid resurgence grows shutdowns
Stock in no way justify the high prices. P/E are at record levels. Bargains will be hard to find.
Institutional and retail stock market investors believe in the long term outlook of the US economy, but even so, concerns still persist about the next 6 months through the winter, if a vaccine isn’t distributed by then.
CBOE Volatility Chart
Volatility is low compared to historical values, however the election should make the needle jump.
Stock Market Outlook 2021: Lean and Mean and Ready to Grow
Let’s put our rose-colored glasses on and take the view that whoever runs the US government, they’ll be able to spend their way out of trouble. Let’s let go of any stock market crash talk, and talk about what advantage US companies will have.
Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Or are new FAANGs about to rise?
Markets were raised by good news of Vaccine success and corporate earnings reports. While the threat and fallout from the deliberate actions of rioters and beach/drinking youth have been a nasty assault on the US economy and the confidence of Americans, the outlook is becoming a little more stable.
Trading Economics Stock Market Predictions to Q2 2021
A Vaccine Will Stifle the Market Pessimists
The media has really been negative on the economy, exaggerating short term issues and pushing stock market crash scenarios. They’re pushing the “vaccines won’t work” theme too. However, good news from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna suggests significant progress toward a successful, widely available Covid 19 Vaccine is not far off, perhaps in June of next year. See more on the vaccine stocks.
What is the Story for the Next 3 Months?
The 3 month outlook is dominated by whether President Trump can hang onto the Presidency and the pro-America agenda. And it’s all about Covid 19 management, slowing the 2nd wave, overpriced stocks and whether investors should bail out.
See below for the 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year forecasts and predictions.
Yet, if you’re a long term investor, the summer volatility won’t matter much. Many big companies will survive the Covid 19 infection period as we head to a vaccine distribution. The real issue for investors is which companies will endure the change and come out winners in 2021.
Will Retail Investors be the Story in the Next 3 Months?
The growth of self-directed trading is impressive as investors feel they can find the best stocks on their own. With the level of insight and opinion and stats available online, these self-directed investors are still guided by the same investment pros. It could be Wall Street feels threatened by a change in the investment landscape, with new investment tools, software and advisors becoming more in vogue.
If self-directed trading is working for you, please let me know in the comments at bottom.
Stock Indexes Head Upward Despite it All
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000 long term outlook are once again positive. The reason the majors have been doing so well, is due to the struggles of small business.
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See more on the best stocks to buy including Vaccine stocks, 5G stocks, and perhaps small caps on the Russell index. Still wondering about the Amazon stock price, Google stock price, and Facebook stock price forecast? Brush up on the Apple stock price lately. Anti monopoly winds are blowing stronger and might hit gale force closer to the election as neither political party supports monopolies.
Important news of recent is the intent of US lawmakers looking to invest tens of billions of dollars in microchip manufacturing in the US. China has been pouring money into that industry. The rationale for this is due to the pre-eminence of chips in tech innovation as AI, 5G and robotics require faster, newer chips.
That means it’s a national security imperative to have microchips made in the US (see Intel, AMD and Nvidia stocks).
Where are they Headed in January, February and March?
November, December and January are usually dark months, and the political turmoil and rise of Joe Biden as the next President means more volatility for the next 6 months and for 2021. Without stimulus spending received until February, consumer confidence could crash.
President Biden can’t do much about the Covid 19 surge which is becoming a serious problem. Shutdowns will have have to be ordered.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer believed the stimulus wouldn’t work because of social distancing (aerosol transmission). As long as people have to stay 6 feet apart, they won’t be flying, commuting on transit, eating at packed restaurants, attending big league sports, and going to the hair salon.
Now with the new surge and shutdowns, it looks like his view was correct. Covid can harm consumer spending and business activity. With no one in factories, GDP is set to fall for the 1st quarter 2021.
Cramer adds concern by saying the stimulus payments ended up in the bank accounts of the big corporations who will end up furloughing employees at some point. We need a Corona Virus vaccine badly, so is support for the vaccine companies is perhaps a wiser choice?
In the meantime, the violent protests could get worse, as unemployment, boredom and homelessness are set to rocket. The specter of a housing crash keeps creeping in. Hopefully, reopening businesses will accelerate revenue. Those who have work at home arrangements could succeed. The work model is definitely going to change and work at home is a fantastic route out of this recession.
Check the Tesla stock forecast along with forecasts for Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Netflix. See the post on best stock picks, best 5G stocks, and whether oil stocks are the best bargains of 2020.
Investing in Vaccine Stocks
Should you buy Corona Virus vaccine stocks? There’s 100 horses in the race for the vaccine. Are Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson (still has asbestos powder lawsuits pending) with ones with the least downside, given they have a regular range of consumer products to fall back on? They may come up with a vaccine too. Some of them pay no dividends, and if they did produce a vaccine, they might become a takeover target.
Check out the top 5 Covid Vaccine stocks:
Some economists and experts forecasted a W shaped recovery. Is the second dip looming, or are we free and clear from here on in?
As lawsuits and trade embargos begin against China in the last half of 2020, we’ll see more market instability. A cold war is looming and that will bode well for the US economy.
Barchart’s Top Gainers
I’m sure you want to get to the top gaining stocks to see which are positioned to rocket higher.
The reopening of businesses across the US added to a potential additional trillion dollar aid package means the economy could be ready to bolt forward. President Trump and the Fed seem to be getting behind the resurgence.
If we get past the dour 3 month and 6 month outlook, 1 year struggles, then the 5 year and 10 year projections for the US stock markets look promising. If Trump is returned to office, then 2021 will be the beginning of strong stock market bull run. The oil price forecast could make the start up period even better.
Corona Virus Stocks, Trending Stocks, or the Best Long Term Value?
If longer term projections and outlook are your guide, it’s just a matter of finding the best stocks to buy. Check out the top trending stocks of late and recheck gold stocks too. The race for a Covid 19 vaccine is providing a lucrative payday for lucky investors: see the top vaccine stocks. There’s big talk of oil stocks, but there is no demand for oil so production cuts won’t work. Also, review the Dow Jones forecast for it’s 3 to 6 month projections.
Other economists and stock market forecasters (Jim Cramer too) are suggesting a U shaped recovery is ahead of us, or that we’re already into it. Others believe this is a W shaped recovery with the next dip just ahead. A brief mini recession would fulfill the prophecy.
Which are the Best Stocks to Buy Now?
One stock market analyst said this could be W recovery instead of a V or U shaped recovery. That means we could be in for another mini stock market crash, or let down. The fact China has recovered and is opening up for business again, means the US will likely follow a similar path.
What Caused the Last Stock Market Drop in April?
Here’s the key factors that took the market down in March and April.
- Corona Virus work stoppage – no income, cities emptied,
- a WHO pandemic declaration
- growth in US virus cases and deaths
- US travel bans for Americans and advice to stay at home
- oil price wars
- bond market weakness
- global economic setbacks
- government corrective actions not enough to solve the issues
Which are the Best Bargain Stocks to Buy?
Smart stock market investors are researching all the major exchanges for the best bargain stocks to buy. It might mean watching stocks daily to see which low priced stocks have the best upside potential. NASDAQ and the tech stocks seem to in demand, as the virus runs its course.
The run on Price of Gold recently may show the oil countries are selling gold to say afloat. The price of oil has sunk below $20 a barrel again today. It will be a boon for most American consumers, and others around the world as vehicle use and travel restart. Price of gasoline from California to New York has dropped significantly.
While all of this extreme market volatility is subsiding, investors worldwide are still nervous. Investment advisors and experts will have their ultimate tests in the coming weeks and months. Volatility and political strife seems to beget more of it.
The Stock Market Forecast
However, the pandemic hasn’t hit the US. The US economy is still solid and improving, but is it exempt from the virus fallout? Some suggest the US will actually benefit from China’s new disease as manufacturers decide that production should move back to America.
Here are the key factors affecting the ever-improving outlook for the US stock market:
- US job numbers — jobs will come back by 2021, but lower than before
- The April PMI® fell to 41.5%, down 7.6% from the March reading of 49.1%
- fears about Corona Virus in North America beginning to decline (case number falling)
- President Trump weathering the Democrat media storm
- interest rates will stay low and perhaps go negative
- More talk about US import tariffs and US self-reliance
- weak earnings but not as bad as expected
- US companies such as Tesla making a lot of noise
- oil (forecast to sink below $40) and no demand growth for 2020
- US dollar looking stronger
Market Forecast for Next 6 to 9 Months
Economic recessions, normally end with a rocketing surge, usually because interest rates drop. This graph shows the current recovery from 2008 is one of the slowest on record. That might mean there’s much more left in the tank to keep this bull stock market going.
Once in a lifetime Opportunity for big short term and long term equity gains. See the Best Stocks to Buy
Check the extensive stock price list and stats below for best picks. Also check out the AI stock picks, and AI stock trading software and see the market pages for real time price quotes.
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For a year that was predicted to be a total waste due to rising interest rates, trade wars, tariffs, political embargos, and a global slowdown, 2019 didn’t turn out all that badly. Hopefully this optimism will brighten the housing market forecast for 2021 after languishing in pessimism.
When Will US Consumers Return to Save the Markets?
It will take more than a 3 month shock to upset consumers. Banks too are very strong coming out of this recession. Bailouts help. And President Trump has made no mention of taking action on the US monopolies, Google, Facebook, and Amazon which would cause a ruffle for a while. We’d have to think the FAANGs will do well in 2020 until monopoly charges are finally laid.
Questions About the Stock Markets
Your questions about stock prediction and the Stock Markets are likely regarding which are the best stocks to buy, which index has better performing stocks, and whether you should invest in the big tech companies? The markets are peaking so what will drive stock prices higher? Should you buy Tesla Stock, or Apple Stock and play follow the leader?
What is the Stock Market Outlook for the Next 5 Years?
The long term stock market outlook to 2024 looks more promising each month because many of the market detractors are losing credibility. Take a look at long forecasts predictions for the S&P
Will Stock Prices Rise in 2021?
That depends a lot on the outcome of the election. Rising taxes, capital gains taxes, mounting debt, growing trade deficits, return of China imports, and the flight of investment capital could all point to a stock market crash.
If the status quo is maintained, the capital will stay and we only have to wait for the Covid 19 vaccine.
Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2020. Tesla stock price is on fire.
It’s still wise to take a look at smaller, up and coming tech stocks on the Russell index in anticipation of a hot economy in 10 months from now.
5 Year Long Term Forecast Optimistic
The 5 year and long term outlook to 2024 look really good too because the American consumer is well employed. The latest jobs outlook report is excellent. The 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales.
Find the best stock picks that are making the biggest improvements below and more about the 2020 stock market forecast. Apple has hit new highs while Amazon and Netflix suffer. Find out what Jim Cramer of Mad Money thinks of the stock markets and the best industries.
Volatility from the Trade Deal: Splitting up a China agreement into phases likely won’t be successful. However, there is hope that something positive will evolve from negotiations with China.
Every time Trump hits China with penalties, the US stock markets jump, tariff revenues skyrocket and US business revenues rise.
Continue to Stock Market Forecast Part 2
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