US Stock Market Forecast 2020
Stock market index drops in Europe and China have a lot of us wondering if a stock market crash will happen in 2020? Are you concerned about your stock portfolio values?
Politics, trade tariffs, and a global economic slowdown are causing volatility and uncertain S&P forecasts, DOW forecast, and NASDAQ forecasts. However, for US companies, the outlook doesn’t look so bleak.
Stock market predictions: Likely the S&P will shine. With the Fortune 500’s cutting back spending and keeping their tax cuts, small and mid caps are getting hurt (Russell 2000 index). As Trump tightens the screws on China, the Dow Jones forecast will drop too. The true US companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange will likely shine this year and next.
It’s a good outlook for small cap entrepreneurs when the big companies resume spending. The pain of refusal to invest in America will become too great, and the risk of losing marketshare will force them to act soon. President Trump will need to tweet something significant to get the spending ball rolling again.
With fall approaching, it remains to be seen if President Trump can use taxes and low interest rates to keep the resurgent US economy rolling. Are we on the precipous of a major correction? I predict the US economy will be fine and that unmet consumer demand will ignite US service providers and manufacturing. That could be enough stimulus to reignite the housing markets too.
A glut of natural gas and oil globally could ensure low energy prices and low inflationary pressures. The US is pumping out 13 millon barrels of oil per day now and Trump’s threat to take OPEC to court over price fixing is undermining the Saudis attempt to raise oil prices.
President Trump has enough tools to prevent a politically induced slide. Multinational and US CEO’s however have to be convinced before they will resume investing in American production facilities. It is their reduced spending that has brought about the latest stock market jitters.
There is another surprising view of US stock market performance that stems from the America First movement. While China and global dependence on US consumers wanes, the US is protected and free to focus on strong growth.
Should President Trump be able to force the multinationals to bring operations and jobs to the US, it would be a market boom scenario.
While the turbulence worries some and the media pushes for a recession, there are some experts who believe this is a brief storm before the US stocks launch into another long bull run going into 2021. With Trump’s relection, US companies sales potential explodes.
As US technology improves, export potential rises, as other countries clamor to stay competitive themselves. They’ll buy US technology, because Trump may give them preferential trade treatment. So Trump does have extensive powers to support the US economic revitalization through 2024.
Yet, the bond markets beckon investors like Poseidon into another recession. Which do you believe?
Stay on the Bucking Bronco?
The stock markets volatility might only reflect anxiety over the process of returning manufacturing to the US from China, and the concerns that the rest of the world can’t take care of itself. The question that hasn’t been resolved for some is what an independent US economy looks like and how strong it can be. Well, if we return to the 50’s and 60’s, we remember incredible economic growth and performance.
While the media are pushing for a stock market crash and recession, the underlying economy is excellent – employment, wages, GDP, interest rates, and trade losses are all very positive. US consumer retail numbers are excellent and the US is collecting big tariff winfalls.
Hottest Stocks this Week — Courtesy of Barcharts.com
Google Alphabet, Autozone, Domino’s Pizza, Roku, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Shake Shack, Wayfair, Sherwin Williams stock prices best performing. See more on Barcharts.com.
If we remember that the America First agenda is about America, it might point to good times ahead for American investors and businesses. Still the Dem’s media channels are firm in their 2020 crash forecast and that the global withdrawal will somehow come back to haunt President Trump.
Avoiding Media Traps Being Set
I’m of the opinion that President Trump simply needs to weather the media storm, and the US will be back to another bull run stock market after the 2020 election. The President hasn’t put enough pressure on the multinationals to bring manufacturing back to the US. And it’s allowed them to wait it out till the 2020 election. That’s why we’re in this anxious period.
Of course, they’re hoping he’ll lose and jobs will be shipped back to China then and China’s off to the races again. But what would everyone think of this scenario? Would Americans really be happy with China prosperity and a return of huge trade deficits?
Strong earnings growth propelled markets through the first 15 weeks of 2019 and that’s continuing. The strength here almost guarantees big IPO activity this year (Uber, Airbnb, Slack).
The recent stock market crisis was a transition and what’s transpired is new record levels for the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P. Investors are calming down as recession fears fade, inflation is subdued, the Federal Reserve is pausing on raising interest rates, and the economy is showing resilience. China-U.S. trade talks are progressing and Brexit fears are dismissed
The Feds pulled back on damaging interest rate rises, trade war fears are dissolving, GDP is up, and China/Brexit issues are in the rearview mirror. Democrats won’t like it, but the markets are poised for much more growth.
Snapshot of top 3 indexes in August 2019
The NASDAQ, S&P, DJIA, and Russell index are 4 key signals in the new American economy. Those analysts who suggested getting out of equity markets might be having second thoughts. See the S&P forecast.
If all you’ve been hearing is doom and gloom global politics, trade retaliation, interfering Fed chairman, price rises, government standoffs, stock market crashes, and housing corrections, you’ll be relieved that the worst is over. Let’s see a common sense look at the stock markets free from media hype and propaganda.
Don’t forget to share this with your friends on Facebook. It’s very positive news.
Enjoy this US focused outlook with data from Trading Economics, NASDAQ, Goldman Sachs, and other data providers which provides forecasts for major stock market indexes, and other key market data sources. Good luck finding the best US stocks to drive your portfolio growth in the next 6 years. US companies will outperform the market.
President Trump is showing some moderation in his attitude toward China and that is making some investors feel better about their chosen stocks. Regardless, Trump is making sure US companies are getting time to breathe and develop. A balancing of China trade though, would mean production of goods and services in the US, shipped to China. Few believe China will live up to its end of the agreement.
Best Stock Picks for 2020?
US stocks are gold. The latest US jobs report, 2020 economic forecast and consumer intent look very good. To help you see the real, big picture context, and make good better decisions on volatile exchanges, here is a big picture look with the right questions to ask.
Here’s Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin with his stock picks for 2019. He also forecasted “the index climbs by 6% to our target of 2875 in 2019” — interview in TheStreet. Kostin is keen on FAANGs.
- Align Technology (ALGN) (+22% revenue growth estimate)
- Amazon (AMZN) (+22%)
- Autodesk (ADSK) (+27%)
- Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) (+34%)
- Concho Resources (CXO) (+30%)
- Facebook (FB) (+27%)
- Netflix (NFLX) (+25%)
- Pentair (PNR) (+22%)
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) (+22)
He advises high revenue growth firms, and that has to favor US companies. There’s still some value in investing in Faangs, such as Facebook or Google. Facebook had a superb 1st quarter earnings report.
Why US Stocks Will Win in 2020
US Stock market potential is huge for 2020 and beyond, yet multinational corporations and their investors want to stop the Asia to US transition. They believe cheap Asian labor and products are more profitable.
For them breaking free of Free Trade means tapping smaller pools of labor and not being able to play one government off against another for concessions and minimal taxes. They can’t win dirty anymore nor get bigger margins with scale. Their cheap labor global supply network took quite a while to set up.
These resistors have media, political power, and opportunity to stop the Trump agenda, and to send booming housing and stock markets off course. They’re finding new ways to attack, but Trump is managing to fight them off.
Those importing foreign goods into the US China will face 25% tariffs. Trump’s opponents will find 2019 and 2020 very difficult and although a stock market correction will happen in the next 4 months, the NASDAQ, DOW, and S&P will find a new level and everyone will move on, until fall of 2020 when the big showdown happens.
Longforecast.com offers an interesting month by month forecast of the DOW which is in the graphic below. They forecast troubled times until 2020, and see 2020 ending spectacularly, although not at the 35,000 point level experts were foretelling last summer.
All of the companies in the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P can still make money in the new US-based economy (auto and chip producers for instance), but it might be smaller American companies and those in the Russell 2000 index you should watch.
Questions to Ask About the Markets?
It’s all about questions, because your questions reveal the depth of your understanding. Simple questions lead to better questions which lead to insight. It’s your money so there’s no end to questions.
- are US Stocks rising while foreign stocks falling?
- how is the US government protecting the development of US-based businesses?
- which US economic sectors have the best potential for American businesses?
- are US economic indicators positive (GDP 3.5% and better than expected)?
- what will happen to sectors when interest rates climb?
- is a US-only based stock portfolio offer the best potential, at least until the elections in 2020?
- will FAANG stocks sink further downward if pro-US agenda persists?
- are the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, and Russell indexes only reflecting the death of the old economy?
- is volatility is a sign of how investors are adjusting/transitioning to US business and away from global business?
- if a recession happens in 2019, could stocks could slide by as much as 20%?
- which us stocks will plunge in 2019 and which of those make a good buy for the longer term?
- trade war would only benefit US business even more because it would solely own the US consumer who are very positive at this time
- should you invest in China, with its 750 million internet users in stocks such as China’s version of Netflix (IQ)? or is everything in China doomed along with its crashing housing market?
- us economic performance so strong in 2017/2018 and investors wonder if the market has peaked
- some experts are pushing the idea of the end of business cycle button
- china/asian companies/stocks are losing their market
- china economy losing its supports — turning inward now
- EU is trying to hang to UK and other departing members
- Saudis indicating they will pump out more oil now so can you expect an oil glut and prices flattening out?
- will shaky relations with the middle east result in major market changes?
- is there still a huge demand for housing markets if economic management wants to support construction?
- is negative sensationalist Democrat media strong enough to talk down the market — and change the focus back to pro-Asia, pro-multinational international corporate perspectives?
- how will volatility affect nervous investors will get little guidance about what what is really happening
- should investors profit on the volatility (VIX index) with market timing?
- will this US midterm result in the usual witn non-incumbents getting elected?
- Is the Fed chairman trying to move the market back to fundamentals and traditional behaviors?
- Is the Fed chairman pushing up rates suggesting his belief the economy will improve in 2019/2020?
- will the Fed raise interest rates and move to end this business cycle?
“If Trump were able to successfully pressure the Fed into adjusting course, it could have sudden and unpredictable effects on the U.S. economy. Markets have long seen the independence of the central bank as a critical ingredient in stability, and Powell has vowed to uphold it” — from Portland Herald Story
- Is the economy adjusting to new technology such as AI, automation, heartland growth, Internet of Things, G5 wireless
- will volatile, AI robot-controlled ETF funds could cause a market crash – ETFs valuations trading is dictated more by the buying and selling of the funds, rather than by company’s own profit fundamentals?\
- do artificial intelligence systems really understand Trump and the new US-based markets?
- as international companies/economies fall, the desperate move to US markets will be intense
- how effective can the Democrats be in taking down US growth, small business growth, American consumer optimism, and tax benefits for US businesses, low rate business environment in the US, can they hide/downplay the dangers of moving business back to Asia?
- will the EU finally fall to pieces without tariff-free access to easy US markets and fend off China dumping?
- how much could inflation and high interest rates erode US GDP?
- how much will rising wages (forecast 4.8%) help improve demand for US goods/services?
- how much will the national deficit and trade deficits slow economic performance?
- is your financial/stock market advisor a democrat or republican?
Stock Market Forecast to 2020
The NASDAQ, DOW Jones, S&P and Russell 2000 indexes to 2019 from Tradingeconomics.
Old Market Forecasting Models Don’t Cut It
If the experts looked at their models more accurately, they’d see huge unfulfilled demand, disappearing regulations and drag on the US economy, tax and tariff positives in the US, technology cultural changes, confidence in jobs and higher wages, and an investor/US citizen base just about fed up with Democrat media reporting.
For instance investment experts liked SNAP, Amazon, Facebook, and disliked Tesla. How’s that advice looking right now? There are experts still advising investing in China companies. What does the technical and emotional indicators suggest how that will likely turn out?
US and global investors have plenty of tough questions about where to invest their 401k, and other retirement funds, and how to profit from all the turmoil going on, and whether traditional investing advice is wise during a Trump-lead market. These are uncertain and volatile times with the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans, and with multinational corporations trying to hold onto the old international trade system.
Stock Market Expert Picks and Forecasts
How would you like to be a global stock market forecaster for Wall Street and put your prognosis out there? Credit Suisse Chief Equity strategist Jonathon Golub stuck his neck out and forecasted the S&P would surpass 3,300+ soon.
2019 isn’t over and Credit Suisse’s forecast could still come true?
The stock market and economic experts aren’t taking into account political and emotional signals (emotional intelligence?) and not taking threats to US economic growth seriously enough. EU and China opposition along with Democrat media (creating negative events) can scare investors, even though the US economy is booming.
Stock Market Forecasts – Dow S&P NASDAQ
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* the above post includes opinions of the author and do not connote recommendations of any kind regarding stocks to invest in. The material is provided as information only.