27 Oct Stock Market Forecast – 2019 2020 Predictions
US Stock Markets – 2019 2020 Predictions
The volatility in the stock markets continue and many are wondering if we’ll pull into a bear market in 2019. 2018 was the year that NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow changed directions, and we’re looking at a major correction this winter. But after that, it will get better — for US companies.
If all you’ve been hearing is doom and gloom global politics, trade retaliation, interfering Fed chairman, price rises, stock market crashes, and housing corrections, you might be just rolling the dice. We’ve got a common sense look at the market free from media hype.
Enjoy this US focused outlook with data from Trading Economics which provides forecasts for major stock market indexes, and other key market data sources. Good luck finding the best US stocks to drive your portfolio growth in the next 6 years.
Best Stock Picks 2019?
US stocks are gold. The latest US jobs report, 2019 economic forecast and consumer intent look very good. To help you see the real, big picture context, and make good better decisions on volatile exchanges, here is a big picture look with the right questions to ask.
Here’s Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin with his stock picks for 2019. He also forecasted “the index climbs by 6% to our target of 2875 in 2019” — interview in TheStreet. Kostin is keen on FAANGs.
- Align Technology (ALGN) (+22% revenue growth estimate)
- Amazon (AMZN) (+22%)
- Autodesk (ADSK) (+27%)
- Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) (+34%)
- Concho Resources (CXO) (+30%)
- Facebook (FB) (+27%)
- Netflix (NFLX) (+25%)
- Pentair (PNR) (+22%)
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) (+22)
He advises high revenue growth firms, and that has to favor US companies.
Looking for better search results on Google? Click on tools and then the time button and choose the past month. You’ll see fresh, up to date results, instead of forecasts and predictions that just didn’t make it.
Why US Stocks Will Win in 2019/2020
US Stock market potential is huge for 2019/2020, yet multinational corporations and their investors want to stop the Asia to US transition. They believe cheap Asian labor and products are more profitable.
For them breaking free of Free Trade means tapping smaller pools of labor and not being able to play one government off against another. They can’t win dirty anymore nor get bigger margins with scale. Their cheap labor global supply network took quite a while to set up. They invested a lot in other countries and don’t want to lose it all. They want to turn back the clock to 2015. This may be why the FAANG stock forecast is less bright.
These resistors have media, political power, and opportunity to stop the Trump agenda, and to send booming housing and stock markets off course. They’re finding new ways to attack, but Trump is managing to fight them off.
On Jan 1st, China will face 25% tariffs. Trump’s opponents will find 2019 and 2020 very difficult and although a stock market correction will happen in the next 4 months, the NASDAQ, DOW, and S&P will find a new level and everyone will move on, until fall of 2020 when the big showdown happens.
Longforecast.com offers an interesting month by month forecast of the DOW which is in the graphic below. They forecast troubled times until 2020, and see 2020 ending spectacularly, although not at the 35,000 point level experts were foretelling last summer.
All of the companies in the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P can still make money in the new US-based economy (auto and chip producers for instance), but it might be smaller American companies and those in the Russell 2000 index you should watch.
Questions to Ask About the Markets?
It’s all about questions, because your questions reveal the depth of your understanding. Simple questions lead to better questions which lead to insight. It’s your money so there’s no end to questions.
- are US Stocks rising while foreign stocks falling?
- how is the US government protecting the development of US-based businesses?
- which US economic sectors have the best potential for American businesses?
- are US economic indicators positive (GDP 3.5% and better than expected)?
- what will happen to sectors when interest rates climb?
- is a US-only based stock portfolio offer the best potential, at least until the elections in 2020?
- will FAANG stocks sink further downward if pro-US agenda persists?
- are the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, and Russell indexes only reflecting the death of the old economy?
- is volatility is a sign of how investors are adjusting/transitioning to US business and away from global business?
- if a recession happens in 2019, could stocks could slide by as much as 20%?
- which us stocks will plunge in 2019 and which of those make a good buy for the longer term?
- trade war would only benefit US business even more because it would solely own the US consumer who are very positive at this time
- should you invest in China, with its 750 million internet users in stocks such as China’s version of Netflix (IQ)? or is everything in China doomed along with its crashing housing market?
- us economic performance so strong in 2017/2018 and investors wonder if the market has peaked
- some experts are pushing the idea of the end of business cycle button
- china/asian companies/stocks are losing their market
- china economy losing its supports — turning inward now
- EU is trying to hang to UK and other departing members
- Saudis indicating they will pump out more oil now so can you expect an oil glut and prices flattening out?
- will shaky relations with the middle east result in major market changes?
- is there still a huge demand for housing markets if economic management wants to support construction?
- is negative sensationalist Democrat media strong enough to talk down the market — and change the focus back to pro-Asia, pro-multinational international corporate perspectives?
- how will volatility affect nervous investors will get little guidance about what what is really happening
- should investors profit on the volatility (VIX index) with market timing?
- will this US midterm result in the usual witn non-incumbents getting elected?
- Is the Fed chairman trying to move the market back to fundamentals and traditional behaviors?
- Is the Fed chairman pushing up rates suggesting his belief the economy will improve in 2019/2020?
- will the Fed raise interest rates and move to end this business cycle?
“If Trump were able to successfully pressure the Fed into adjusting course, it could have sudden and unpredictable effects on the U.S. economy. Markets have long seen the independence of the central bank as a critical ingredient in stability, and Powell has vowed to uphold it” — from Portland Herald Story
- Is the economy adjusting to new technology such as AI, automation, heartland growth, Internet of Things, G5 wireless
- will volatile, AI robot-controlled ETF funds could cause a market crash – ETFs valuations trading is dictated more by the buying and selling of the funds, rather than by company’s own profit fundamentals?\
- do artificial intelligence systems really understand Trump and the new US-based markets?
- as international companies/economies fall, the desperate move to US markets will be intense
- how effective can the Democrats be in taking down US growth, small business growth, American consumer optimism, and tax benefits for US businesses, low rate business environment in the US, can they hide/downplay the dangers of moving business back to Asia?
- will the EU finally fall to pieces without tariff-free access to easy US markets and fend off China dumping?
- how much could inflation and high interest rates erode US GDP?
- how much will rising wages (forecast 4.8%) help improve demand for US goods/services?
- how much will the national deficit and trade deficits slow economic performance?
- is your financial/stock market advisor a democrat or republican?
This chart shows the 4 key markets: DOW, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell. The downturn is sudden but not supported by actual economic performance.
The NASDAQ, DOW Jones, S&P and Russell 2000 indexes to 2019 from Tradingeconomics.
Old Market Forecasting Models Don’t Cut It
If the experts looked at their models more accurately, they’d see huge unfulfilled demand, disappearing regulations and drag on the US economy, tax and tariff positives in the US, technology cultural changes, confidence in jobs and higher wages, and an investor/US citizen base just about fed up with Democrat media reporting.
For instance investment experts liked SNAP, Amazon, Facebook, and disliked Tesla. How’s that advice looking right now? There are experts still advising investing in China companies. What does the technical and emotional indicators suggest how that will likely turn out?
US Midterm Election Predictions
The US midterm elections don’t look good for the Republicans. These elections always see incumbent controlling parties lose about 50 to 60 seats. Will the bad news when Democrats control the house, send the US markets on a downward slide on November 7th. When will the negativity peak with a correction event?
Long term outlook: If Dems win elections, what can they possibly do in power? If they try to send jobs back to Asia, what will American’s response be? That might be a hurdle they can’t get over. No one has ever asked the Dems what they will do if they win. The next elections in 2020 will have an increasing impact on the markets.
Trump’s Achilles Heal
President Trump’s weakness isn’t just Jerome Powell, it’s his lack of US media promotion and bad news control. Even market traders and investment firms get sucked into the bad news stream such as persistent ominous reports on interest rate change effects.
The democrats control almost all media outflow and they’re giving it to Trump with both barrels, every hour of the day, ad nauseum.
US voters who don’t have a clue about what’s really going on, are persuaded by the Dem’s media propaganda. And the media companies themselves make a lot of advertising money from 24 hour Trump trashing. The Dem’s media channels, and TV commentators are a factor and they will do everything they can to talk down US economic prosperity and to promote multinational corporate agendas.
US and global investors have plenty of tough questions about where to invest their 401k, and other retirement funds, and how to profit from all the turmoil going on, and whether traditional investing advice is wise during a Trump-lead market. These are uncertain and volatile times with the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans, and with multinational corporations trying to hold onto the old international trade system.
Is all the negativity about to result in a big market correction where the demons get exorcized following afterward by a period of unprecedented optimism and growth which will spill out to the world? A rosy picture yes, but why is it impossible?
It’s good for investors to look at the extremes just for perspective and confidence, and to look at the motives and models of their advisors.
We’re all wondering about a market slide and recession, but amid a strong market, are these realistic fears of a market correction in 2018/2019, or is it more about forecasters who don’t understand what’s actually happening? Are they just projecting their own dead end forecasting models, pessimism, and political expectations?
Stock Market Expert Picks and Forecasts
How would you like to be a global stock market forecaster for Wall Street and put your prognosis out there? Credit Suisse Chief Equity strategist Jonathon Golub stuck his neck out and forecasted the S&P would surpass 3,300+ soon.
The stock market and economic experts aren’t taking into account political and emotional signals (emotional intelligence?) and not taking threats to US economic growth seriously enough. EU and China opposition along with Democrat media (creating negative events) can scare investors, even though the US economy is booming. The Fed chairman could bring the markets to a halt if he wants to. Is he a saboteur or a visionary who feels Trumps new America could really heat up?
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* the above post includes opinions of the author and do not connote recommendations of any kind regarding stocks to invest in. The material is provided as information only.