08 Jul US Economic Forecast – 2019 2020 Predictions
US Economic Predictions for 2019 to 2020
It’s a whole new economic era and 2019 will be a wonderful year for the United States. The prediction is that the US is about to enjoy the same growth and opportunity that spawned the China revolution. That’s exciting and it’s already begun.
Oil production, manufacturing, housing construction, and technology haven’t even hit their stride yet. And while economic turbulence causes discomfort, Americans should be very optimistic about the turnaround. Turn your TVs off.
This US economic expansion is controlled, lower risk, and more sustainable. Voices have tried to talk down the new US revolution, but they’re growing weak against a clear voice of confidence in America. If China can sustain 10% growth, the US can manage 3% to 5% growth just fine.
Economic Recession? Why?
An endless array of economists, billionaires, millionaires, stock experts, and democrats are promising a big US economic recession within a couple of years.
They cite statistics, history, and trade impasses that will ruin the party. Check your assumptions at the door, because this party is going to be fun.
The US economy looks unusually solid, not a bear or a bull, but more like a Rhinoceros. While some belicose doomsday sayers tout their complaints, they themselves keep pulling in higher profits from their US stock portfolios. You have to wonder about their sincerity.
Some of them have a bone to pick with the Trump government while others just think the current business cycle will die a natural death. All of them have a theory and a few have some big data to back up their beliefs.
We’ll get to the data argument in a moment. And there are some exciting statistics from housing to manufacturing to new business formation.
Of course, we’re all intelligent enough to know the current US economic boom may or may not last. A trade war could lower the outlook, but so far things are great.
Consumers are not fulfilled and production capacity will grow. The talk of embargos on US goods are overstated for sure. Resentment from Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico will subside. US manufacturing output will grow in quality and the world will want US products. Who wouldn’t want access to the US market? Seriously.
American consumers are expecting good things. They’ll buy any house they can get their hands on and they won’t be buying as many Toyotas, Mercedes Benz and Beemers as before. Tesla’s will be in good demand.
The End of Free Trade
The end of Free Trade was predictable. American poverty, debt, and misery and lack of control has brought it to a stop. Fair Trade will be the new norm.
The defense of globalization rests on viewing Americans primarily as consumers, not workers, based on the assumption that we care more about low prices than about low wages — NY Times article
Free Trade wreaked havoc on American lifestyle, wealth, politics, and optimism. It was a concept for the 80’s, but it’s not the 80’s anymore. It has ruined people’s lives.
A US housing crash is unlikely and the stock market looks pretty healthy. However, a global recession would affect the US as would a China collapse. President Trump knows it, which is why he keeps pulling back on 100% commitment to many of the policies he sets forth.
Post Free Trade: Do the Old Stats Really Forecast the Future?
Are old stats valid as predictors, or is the disappearing influence of foreign nations and internatioal corporations going to create a while new playing field?
Even with Artificial intelligence processing, can the old data really tell us what a post Free Trade America looks like? That data is getting a little dusty already. Score one for human brain power.
The new economic data seems to show how historic and life changing this economic forecast already is. This 2018 to 2024 economic boom will transform US culture.
We’ll witness a nation of financially disabled, overweight, stressed out, drug-induced, tatooed, metal pierced, gender identity confused, NIMBY protestors jump back to one of certainty, confidence, and self-esteem.
America’s Burgeoning New Self-Esteem
It’s this matter of self-esteem of the American people that’s so critical. CNN and other media paparazzi think esteem is something dished out in scathing news reports. But what’s happening is a nation’s self-esteem is being regained and this time innoculated against media manipulation (the Media and big advertisers don’t like that).
Can Anything Stop This Incredible American Economic Boom?
A first thought many of us have is that the US economy is going gangbusters and times are things are getting much better. It feels good already. This new economic engine is a locomotive with momentum. It’s partly powered by the relief of decades of economic evil and by the old belief (babyboomers) that the US should be strong and independent.
Some feel Asia should lead. Wrong turn Clyde.
The US economy is strong, positive, dynamic in range and compelling and if current trends continue, “you ain’t seen nothin yet.” If China’s revolution is any indication, the US revival will bring phenomenal development in technology, housing, and culture.
Even if Trump disappears, the America first agenda will continue. The people will ensure it happens. There’s no going back to the poverty and debt and hopelessness, particularly for the forgotten in the rust belt and midwest. You can’t keep a good Zombie down.
How Could Anyone Vote Against This Economic Boom?
Everyone has enemies and some of them have a lot of money.
Without US spending, the world collapses and resentments will happen. The world is addicted to US cash. Plain and simple. And like an addict being weaned off their designer drugs, there’s going to be some withdrawal events.
Corporations are calling them supply chain disruptions. After Brexit, Europe is a neurotic mess and Asia is a self-aggrandized circus using government-backed play money. The US is an oasis of sanity.
“Overall the report is good news insofar as it suggests the economy still has some capacity to grow at an above-trend pace without generating much inflationary pressure,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York — Reuters report
You can find many quotes of economist’s opinions online. They cite interest rates, yield spreads, monetary policy, budget deficits, stimulus spending, manufacturing capacity and so much more of the predictable stats they say rule human existence. If data is king, how did Trump become President?
Who’s the First to Start These Avalanches?
Rich people are different. They’re pessimistic. From the deck of their yachts, life can only get worse. They don’t think “I’ve got great, secure job,” they think “my fortune’s in danger”.
They don’t know why or how, they just feel something dark is near (thanks to the media). They can’t figure out whether to believe CNN or Fox. They can’t distinguish between US and the world. They get their money from everywhere and right now, they’re confused.
In fact, they’re the ones who invested in Chinese and Mexican factories and they don’t care what happens to American people. Their score card is their bank account. Trump’s slapped the score card out of their hands.
However, billionaires, millionaires, middle class investors can create quite an avalanche of panic-induced sell offs. This is what we should be most wary of. An avalanche only has to get started, then nature takes over.
These self-important groups who react emotionally to their stock portfolio values and not the economic well-being of nations (as they claim) could conceivably start the avalanche. Unless they get smart and hop on the US bandwagon. I believe they will.
In the meantime, the latest jobs report reveals excellent 200k+ job growth and droves of people coming back into the workforce. Those Zombies want to work!
The unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent in June from an 18-year low of 3.8 percent in May as 601,000 job seekers entered the labor force in a sign of confidence in the labor market — Reuters report.
Employed persons rose highest levels in history.
Job vacancies begin to rise as shortages begin to hit, and due to insufficient Americans to fill highly skilled vacancies. Companies will need to train Americans. Good times for Millennials.
China’s Not Evil, But They HaveCalmly Watched the US Go Down the Toilet
One of Trump’s key advisors believes it’s US vs China. I think that’s wrong. But China’s totalitarian government doesn’t deserve our confidence. They stole intellectual property and don’t seem to know when to stop gorging themselves at the watering hole. They erode our confidence. Yet China can improve. They’re evolving so Trump should at least let them participate in a cooperative way.
On the other hand, China may have a bone to pick. Their people and childen slaved hard in those factories brought to life by American capitalists. Oh yes, what goes around, later comes back. Now who’s your daddy? Well, Trump’s pretty much our daddy now and he doesn’t like China’s predatory habits. China’s in a bad spot right now and a predictable China housing crash will be the first big event of this post-China era.
Democrats Will Tell You, Marketing is Everything
President Trump has done a poor job of marketing/communicating the lasting value of his agenda to Americans. Polls show the people feel badly about their country, at a time when the US is healthy again and ready to lead the world.
Americans are picking up the value of Trump’s agenda slowly though with their new higher paying jobs and new homes. It might be called osmosis.
Entrepreneurs in the US are actually getting taken seriously too. Yes, cars, solar panels, robots, and computer chips can be made in the USA by companies managed by US executives (sorry India). That image has to make them very happy and confident that this isn’t a mirage. The great American Revival is real and it will be very tough to destroy.
Democrats are up all night strategizing how they can sabotage this incredible economic boom. They’re hoping some big tsunamis will make it back across the oceans to the US and wash Trump away. But Trump gets to decide how big those waves will be. And don’t think he doesn’t know. He’s constantly softening his policies and legislation based on the noise levels he hears.
Trump is a Tactician
That’s practical. He’s a tactician assessing immediate feedback, not a strategist with a python intellectual grip, which is why his enemies are taking the higher road with a hope and a prayer. It won’t work though because that highway is congested with tens of millions of Americans who thought Free Trade would be okay. Now they know they got sold.
The US economy is booming and all the fundamentals support an ongoing economic boom through 2024. Trump’s strategy is clear — protect American companies and markets so they can spawn.
This chart above shows the growth of the US housing market. with will continue its climb in 2019. Notice how since 2013, the growth has been halting and uncertain, like steps up a mountain. There’s a wary, lack of confidence in home buyers, yet the line is rising nonetheless. This kind of growth is more resilient, aware of danger, ready for events, so it’s in control. It would take something massive to stop it’s forward thrust.
Check the predictions for the Los Angeles housing market, Florida housing market, New York housing market, San Francisco housing market, Boston housing market, and in Philadelphia. All markets on a positive roll.
Now tack on the fact that home ownership is low, millennials are coming to family formation years, China trade tariffs and rules of origin rules on manufacturing keeping imports down, the coming reduced trade deficits, growing American wealth, and how strong the US dollar is and you have an incredibly solid economic outlook. The whole world is investing in the US. This is where you want to park your money.
Gross domestic product growth estimates for the April-June period are as high as a 5% annualized rate, more than double the 2.0 percent pace logged in the first quarter — Reuters report.
US GDP is growing strong. Not China numbers but solid, steady, conservative, and sustainable growth rates. If it was 10% growth, it would get uncomfortable. But this is slow manageable growth. It’s rock solid. And labour productivity is hitting record heights in the last year.
Risks are low, optimism is high, and success abounds. In this economic environment, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.
There’s a full lineup of villians ready to stab the president in the back, but Trump knows about such people. He’s in real estate and has worked with double dealers and saboteurs all day.
What’s the last word in the US economic revival? Momentum. The US economy is robust and growing and few will want to see it end.
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