13 Oct US Economic Forecast – 2019 2020 Predictions
US Economic Predictions for 2019 to 2024
Although lost the midterms, the President Donald Trumps report card for his term so far is excellent. This US economic update and jobs report for October shows continued growth at a time when jobs haven’t yet been repatriated from Asia. This makes the future forecast even better.
Along with booming GDP growth, record low unemployment, wage increases of 3.1%, we’ll soon see the economic boosting effects of import tariffs, tax cuts, and US IP protection.
Now in late 2018, repatriation of business to the US, and a potential of lowering of the trade deficit, a recent 4.2% growth in GDP shows America is in a very positive situation — good for investors and consumers alike.
The lagging housing market and small business sector should regain their stride once multinationals are forced to build factories in the US (Jan 1st, the 25% import tariff takes effect). The coming 10% tax break for the middle class makes 2019 look very good. Corporate stock market performance may see some corrections after the current import stampede ends.
US October Economic Performance
The US economy outperformed again in October, bolstered by an additional 250,000 jobs and unemployment at record low levels (3.7%) and new job growth in key industries:
Healthcare jobs: up 36,000
Manufacturing jobs: up 32,000
Construction jobs: up 30,000
Transport and warehouse jobs: up 25,000
Leisure/hospitality jobs: up 42,000
Professional and Business services: up 35,00
Mining jobs: up 5,000
This graph below tells a lot about how thing are going and are predicted to play out.
The benefits of reducing the trade deficit by $300 Billion per year and the creation of new US factories is making Americans more confident of their long term future. That will spawn optimism that we haven’t seen since the 1960’s. And the benefits will spill over into Canada and Mexico, regardless of trade agreements.
Despite the short term volatility and negative stock market predictions, the US economy will grow. With inflation reported this month at 2.4%, there is little reason for the Fed chairman to raise interest rates.
American Consumers are Becoming Wealthy
America has experienced one of the most powerful household wealth booms in its history. Household wealth has ballooned by approximately $46 trillion or 83% to an all-time high of $100.8 trillion – Forbes.com
The figure below supports the optimistic picture for the US economy. US consumers are spending, it will be a great Xmas season, and they’ll keep spending even more in the next 4 years. If companies are forced to set up operations in the US, creating better higher paying jobs, and the trade deficit is cut, the US economy could grow much further. It’s a great time to invest in US SMB’s and startups.
Good Times Ahead for American Producers
What this report translates to is stronger employment security, prime market access for US companies, better housing, more opportunities for young people with big student loans, returning entrepreneurial spirit, higher pay soon, and hope for a poverty/housing plagued nation for many years ahead.
Wage growth is coming once business must return operations to the US. Trumps tariffs won’t take full effect until Jan 1st 2019.
Deloitte just produced their outlook which is ridiculously negative and politically biased. Somehow, they forecast a recession. Some pray for a housing crash, but it won’t happen. Too much demand from optimistic US Millennials.
Deloitte does admit however, that if the Trump strategy doesn’t work, the US can always change course and ease its trade rules. It’s a no lose situation for the US. And so far, multinational corporate profits haven’t been affected. In fact, with small business America decimated, these companies have no competition and are thus reaping ridiculous profits.
Volatile Market yet the Curve is Rising
While the Democrats are crying and pushing the doomsday button via media, the US economic growth continues at an astonishing rate. And while multinationals still resist creating plants in the US, the pressure is building on them, and they’re missing out on potentially even more lucrative US markets — to wiser and new competition. Sticking with China is an increasingly losing proposition, as China begins to turn in on itself.
The US economic prediction is that the US is about to enjoy the same growth and opportunity that spawned the China revolution. High employment, new career opportunities, optimism, imagination, confidence, and hopefully soon, higher wages as newly created US firms begin to thrive and capitalize on a wealthy American consumer market.
New business formation was at its lowest in history when Trump was voted in. Since then it has risen, and with rising tariffs, lower regulation, and continuing low interest rates, the stage is set for an entrepreneurial boom in the US.
Reports say stimulus withdrawal and waning consumer confidence will end it all. Yet stats show strong consumer confidence and evidence that consumers are ignoring politically biased noise in the media. Financial experts on Bloomberg were hinting at another potential 10 years of boom times in the US.
President Trump met with the EU President to announce the elimination of tariffs however they and the Chinese are too heavily invested in their own market protection schemes. There won’t be a deal. That spells good news for the US economy. With manufacturing returning, US oil production growing, low corporate taxes continuing, business regulation dismantled, the macroeconomics for the United States is as good as it has ever been.
Economic Boom: The US import tariffs will help to give US businesses a strong startup environment against huge foreign companies who benefit from ultra-cheap labor. Intellectual property protection means US companies won’t see their own work exploited for free by competitors. This is a huge change. See more of the numbers below.
New Deals Could Breathe More Life into US Business
Oil production, manufacturing, housing construction, and technology startups in the US haven’t even hit their stride yet. And while economic turbulence may cause discomfort, Americans should continue to enjoy years of strong growth and prosperity and to solve the affordable housing crisis and avoid any housing crashes in some cities.
This 2018 to 2020 US economic expansion is controlled, lower risk, and more sustainable. Voices have tried to talk down the new US economic revolution, but they’re growing weak against a clear voice of confidence in America. If China can sustain 10% growth, the US can manage 3% to 5% growth just fine.
Economic Recession? Why?
An endless array of economists, billionaires, millionaires, stock experts, and democrats are promising a big US economic recession within a couple of years. They cite statistics, history, tradition, and trade impasses that will ruin the party. In lieu of real economic performance statistics, consumers and voters are ignoring the dour outlook.
The US economy looks unusually solid, not a bear or a bull, but more like a Rhinoceros. While some belicose doomsday sayers tout their complaints, they themselves keep pulling in higher profits from their US stock portfolios. Laughably ridiculous.
There are some exciting new statistics from housing to manufacturing to new business formation that bolsters a happy sustained outlook.
US manufacturing jobs were decimated as we all know, and as these jobs in modern manufacturing return, the economy will boom and wages will rise.
Manufacturing in America: Welcome Home
Consumers are not fulfilled and production capacity will grow. The talk of embargos on US goods are overstated for sure. Resentment from Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico will subside. US manufacturing output will grow in quality and the world will want US products. Who wouldn’t want reciprocal access to the US market?
American consumers are expecting good things. They’ll buy any house they can get their hands on and they won’t be buying as many Toyotas, Mercedes Benz and Beemers as before. Fords, Chevys and Tesla’s will be in good demand.
Trading economics forecasted 93.1 consumer confidence rating for fall 2018. It’s actually at 100.8 despite all the political and trade volatility.
The End of Free Trade
The end of Free Trade was predictable. American poverty, debt, and misery and lack of control has brought it to a stop. Fair Trade will be the new norm.
The defense of globalization rests on viewing Americans primarily as consumers, not workers, based on the assumption that we care more about low prices than about low wages — NY Times article
Free Trade wreaked havoc on American lifestyle, wealth, politics, and optimism. It was a concept for the 80’s, but it’s not the 80’s anymore. It has ruined people’s lives. The stock markets continue their happy upward direction.
A US housing crash is unlikely and the stock market looks pretty healthy. However, a global recession would affect the US as would a China collapse. President Trump knows it, which is why he keeps pulling back on 100% commitment to many of the policies he sets forth.
Housing starts keep growing as depicted below, and with demographics so positive (Millennials and Gen Z’s coming soon), the demand will be steep. It’s a fantastic time to be in US real estate.
Post Free Trade: Do the Old Stats Really Forecast the Future?
Are old stats valid as predictors, or is the disappearing influence of foreign nations and internatioal corporations going to create a while new playing field?
Even with Artificial intelligence processing, can the old data really tell us what a post Free Trade America looks like? That data is getting a little dusty already. Score one for human brain power and imagination.
The new economic data shows how this 2018 to 2024 economic boom will transform US culture. We haven’t seen this situation since the 1960’s.
We’ll witness a nation of financially disabled, overweight, stressed out, drug-induced, tatooed, metal pierced, gender identity confused, NIMBY protestors jump back to one of certainty, confidence, and self-esteem.
America’s Burgeoning New Self-Esteem
It’s this matter of self-esteem of the American people that’s so critical. CNN and other media paparazzi think esteem is something dished out in scathing news reports. But what’s happening is a nation’s self-esteem is being regained and this time innoculated against media manipulation (the Media and big advertisers don’t like that).
Can Anything Stop This Incredible American Economic Boom?
A first thought many of us have is that the US economy is too strong to stop – a new economic locomotive with momentum. It’s partly powered by the relief of decades of economic evil and by the old belief (babyboomers) that the US should be strong and independent.
Some have felt Asia should lead the world. There’s something extremely unpatriotic about that.
Even if Trump disappears, the America first agenda will continue. The people will ensure it happens. There’s no going back to the poverty, debt and hopelessness, particularly for the forgotten in the rust belt and midwest.
How Could Anyone Vote Against This Economic Boom?
Everyone has enemies and some of them have a lot of money.
Without US spending, the world collapses and resentments will happen. The world is addicted to US cash, plain and simple. And like an addict being weaned off their designer drugs, there’s going to be some withdrawal events.
Corporations are calling them supply chain disruptions. After Brexit, Europe is a neurotic mess and Asia is a self-aggrandized circus using communist government-backed play money. In contrast, the US is an oasis of sanity.
“Overall the report is good news insofar as it suggests the economy still has some capacity to grow at an above-trend pace without generating much inflationary pressure,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York — Reuters report
You can find many quotes of economist’s opinions online. They cite interest rates, yield spreads, monetary policy, budget deficits, stimulus spending, manufacturing capacity and so much more of the predictable stats they say rule human existence. If old data is king, how did Trump become President?
Who’s the First to Start These Avalanches?
Rich people are different. They’re pessimistic. From the deck of their yachts, life can only get worse. They don’t think “I’ve got a great, secure job,” they think “my fortune’s in danger”.
They don’t know why or how, they just feel something dark is near (thanks to the media). They can’t figure out whether to believe CNN or Fox. They can’t distinguish between US and the world. They get their money from everywhere and right now, they’re confused.
In fact, they’re the ones who invested in Chinese and Mexican factories in the first place to maximize profits. Their score card is their bank account and they have little sympathy for Americans. That will change out of necessity.
However, billionaires, millionaires, middle class investors can create quite an avalanche of panic-induced sell offs. This is what we should be most wary of. An avalanche only has to get started, then nature takes over.
In the meantime, the latest jobs report reveals continuous, excellent 200k+ job growth each month and droves of people coming back into the workforce. Skill shortages are a true threat to US manufacturing revitalization. People will have to be trained. The education industry should enjoy their outlook.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent in June from an 18-year low of 3.8 percent in May as 601,000 job seekers entered the labor force in a sign of confidence in the labor market — Reuters report.
Employed persons rose highest levels in history.
Job vacancies begin to rise as shortages begin to hit, and due to insufficient Americans to fill highly skilled vacancies. Good times for Millennials and for immigrants.
China’s Not Evil, But They Have Calmly Watched the US Go Down the Toilet
One of Trump’s key advisors believes it’s US vs China. I think that’s wrong. But China’s communist, totalitarian government doesn’t deserve our confidence. They stole intellectual property and don’t seem to know when to stop gorging themselves in US consumerism. They erode our confidence.
On the other hand, China may have a bone to pick. Their people and children slaved hard in those factories brought to life by American capitalists. Oh yes, what goes around, later comes back.
Democrats Will Tell You, Marketing is Everything
President Trump has done a poor job of marketing/communicating the lasting value of his agenda to Americans. Polls show the people feel badly about their country, at a time when the US is healthy again and ready to lead the world. But when you’ve been sick for a while, you don’t just jump out of bed and join the party.
It will take a while for Americans to regain their emotional health just as they lost it in the last 30 years.
Americans are picking up the value of Trump’s agenda slowly though with their new higher paying jobs and new homes. It might be called osmosis and it will grow.
Entrepreneurs in the US are actually getting taken seriously too. Yes, cars, solar panels, smartphone apps, robots, and computer chips can be made in the USA by companies managed by US executives (sorry India). There is real hope for the future of young Americans.
Democrats are up all night strategizing how they can sabotage this incredible economic boom. They’re hoping some big tsunamis will make it back across the oceans to the US and wash Trump away. But Trump gets to decide how big those waves will be. And don’t think he doesn’t know. He’s increasingly hard nosed against his enemies.
Trump is a Tactician
That’s practical. He’s a tactician assessing immediate feedback, not a strategist with a python intellectual grip, which is why his enemies are taking the higher road with a hope and a prayer. Their path is ill-advised though because that highway is congested with tens of millions of dejected Americans who thought Free Trade would be okay. Now they know they got sold.
With Trump, the strategy is simple — support American business and everything else will fit in perfectly. So far, it’s working.
The US economy is booming and all the fundamentals support an ongoing economic boom through 2024. Trump’s strategy is clear — protect American companies and markets so they can spawn.
The housing market could be better, yet construction is okay and demand is certainly strong.
This chart above shows the growth of the US housing market which will continue its climb in 2019. Notice how since 2013, the growth has been halting and uncertain, like steps up a mountain. There’s a wary, lack of confidence in home buyers, and fears of crashes in some cities, yet the line is rising nonetheless.
This kind of growth is more resilient, aware of danger, ready for events, so it’s in control. It would take something massive to stop it’s forward thrust.
Check the predictions for the Los Angeles housing market, Florida housing market, New York housing market, San Francisco housing market, Boston housing market, Chicago Illinois housing market and in Philadelphia. All markets on a positive roll.
Now tack on the fact that home ownership is low, millennials are coming to family formation years, China trade tariffs and rules of origin rules on manufacturing keeping imports down, the coming reduced trade deficits, growing American wealth, and how strong the US dollar is and you have an incredibly solid economic outlook. The whole world is investing in the US pushing the dollar and stock markets higher. This is where you want to park your money and start a business.
Gross domestic product growth estimates for the April-June period are as high as a 5% annualized rate, more than double the 2.0 percent pace logged in the first quarter — Reuters report.
US GDP is growing strong at a projected 3%. Not China numbers but solid, steady, conservative, and sustainable growth rates. If it was 10% growth, it would get uncomfortable. But this is slow manageable growth without inflation. It’s rock solid. And labour productivity is hitting record heights in the last year.
Risks are low, optimism is high, and success abounds. In this economic environment, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.
There’s a full lineup of villains ready to stab the president in the back, but Trump knows about such people. He’s in real estate and has worked with double dealers and saboteurs all day.
What’s the last word in the US economic revival? Momentum. The US economy is robust and growing and few will want to see it end.
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