3 Months Stock Market Outlook
What’s in store for the markets for April, May and June? Given today’s market surge, we might expect tremendous growth in prices.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says there is $4.5 trillion in cash on the sidelines that make the stock market soar in April. He adds that since the beginning of the institutional cash balances have surged 9% to $3 trillion. Add the stimulus boost and this is where all that money could start getting spent.
As vaccinations deflate the negatives, and as earnings data comes, the April, May and June stock market anticipation (3 month outlook) looks excellence. Stock advistors were particularly ebullient today, recommending stocks. March’s job numbers in March were strong and GDP forecasts previously were bullish.
This 3 month stock market forecast comes on the back of the stimulus package proposed by Biden. Some are concerned that some Democrats will say no to the deal, and certainly, no Republican will vote for the big tax increase.
The rotation: During March, value stocks outperformed growth stocks year over year. It’s suggested investors are leaving the pandemic stocks, high growth stocks and moving into stocks from businesses with sustainable business models.
The strongest sectors today were technology, construction and consumer discretionary. It’s a hint that soon we’ll be back to business as usual. Over one third of Americans have received their first vaccine shot. Take a look at the top gaining stocks on Monday as an indicator of where we’re headed in the next few months.
Looking at the Russell Index and Small Caps
Small caps are getting a good look because they’re reasonably priced compared to large and mega caps on the S&P and Dow Jones indexes. Note the growth of the Russell index stocks since November. While many underperforming small businesses will go under in the next 3 months, the Russell stocks could benefit from that.
It’s important to know that small caps aren’t “small business” which is plagued with shutdowns and unemployed customers. Small caps on the Russell are well-financed companies with a big upside for 2021. The 2021 outlook is what is driving the market, not the current pandemic.
The DOW has been reacting well to vaccination announcements as Pfizer, Moderna and Astrazeneca are gearing up for delivery. However, it’s going to be lengthy journey to mass vaccinations in the US. Covid 19 shutdowns are not finished. The Dow mega caps are affected by consumer woes, but as vaccinations are distributed, DOW and S&P should improve.
A stimulus deal in January and an easing of the pandemic in March could really encourage investors to park more money in the stock markets. Some believe the Russell 2000 small caps have the best upside potential. See the list of hot Russell stocks below.
Certainly the Democrats are enthusiastic, but their policies are anti-business and the huge debt loads will weigh heavily on their plans. The Republicans have the senate and will likely block tax increases and other items the Dems had planned. That actually works well to keep business happy.
Corona Virus Vaccination News Will Gain Prominence
Right now, with surges and shutdowns, the news is as bad as it can get.
Experts believe vaccine success hasn’t been factored into the markets yet. It makes sense, since investors and the public can’t visualize a full reversal of health, cultural and economic trends. Literally everything is about to go into reverse.
Covid 19 stocks aren’t gaining much value and revenues aren’t outstanding. However, stocks like Pfizer are unique in that the company produces a large array of products across the globe and will benefit from a recovering global economy. The US GDP rises in 2021 as expected, it should boost stock prices dramatically. Some experts believe the S&P will hit 4300.
Could we see a stock market crash sometime this summer? In many ways, the economy is a house of cards so concerns of corrections and crashes aren’t ludicrous. Few people foresaw any of the recent stock market crashes. Some were calling for a dramatic fall because they are way over-priced based on real earnings.
We’ve had a few volatile correction periods, but as we get closer to full Corona Virus vaccine distribution, you have to think the upward momentum will really pick up by 3 months from now when investors really believe the end of the pandemic is in site.
Record New Highs Called
The stock market for the next 3 months should rise continuously, to new highs. It looks like fundamentals are beginning to drive stock prices higher. Of course, next week’s earnings reports will give a clearer picture. Goldman Sachs earlier predicted an 18% drop in the markets in the next 6 months, but revised it after the S&P surged. Live and learn.
The markets have excelled during the pandemic, not as a response to billionaire wealth, but rather to the hope of the new United States. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ have grown 15% over the last 3 months. Stock market experts expect stocks prices to plummet but they’ve forecasted this before.
Screenshot courtesy of Longforecast.com
Screenshot courtesy of longforecast.com
Let’s see what forecasts.org believes will be the fate of each index over 2021. In each case, they offer a conservative estimate and believe growth will sag when stimulus ends. However, the US government will likely provide further stimulus until the economy is back on its feet. That brings a lot of confidence.
Really Poor Market Forecasting Unrecorded
It’s pretty well known that historic-based forecasting and media-hyped prediction has failed horribly. You’ve seen the technical guy’s tired reports based on historic models, and old “Warren” guys pushing their bias. Are you rich yet?
You’ve realized it’s big corporate money conditioning the market for their advantage. It sounds illegal, but it isn’t in contravention of the financial and stock market laws. They can get away with it.
Unfortunately, the big corporate media who control those channels are not going admit to their poor forecasting performance anytime soon. Go ahead and search for stock forecaster success ratings online. What did you find? Nothing right?
While social inequality protesters riot and spread the virus, fanned and fueled by your favorite media channels, it provides a nice haven for the corporate crowd to hide their actual performance record (and their motives).
We can’t have that. It’s vital to access alternative views of market factors and futures. The next 3 months for the stock markets reflect an end of the virus and a return to February’s hot stock prices. Just get a ruler and draw a line to new stock market record prices.
Moving Closer to 2021
2021 is predicted to be at record levels by most experts. Yet, it will be a turbulent upward line to 2021 where finally we’ll see the economy freed from Covid 19 and negative political reporting.
Investors are creative and smart. You’re looking for alternative perspectives, free of political bias to guide your investment decisions. Even retail investors are smart. You’re turning to AI investing services and blogs to add to your insight. And you’re looking at investment models for 2021 that screen out Democrat or Republican influences.
Next 6 Months: December, January and
The stock markets have been affected by the Corona Virus shutdown. You can see the results from the last 3 months where employment dropped to historic lows. The US government saved the day, enough to bridge the gap to 2021.
The next 6 months are pivotal because it could be the end of the Democrat media if Biden doesn’t win. They’ve got it all on the casino table.
But now that Americans are returning to work and seeing clearly why a pro-American agenda is correct, we’re betting that US companies are going to soar. Check out US tech stocks for instance. NASDAQ is doing so well, yet the media said Silicon Valley would die because of the Republicans. Didn’t happen.
The 3 month forecast reflects the long term view beyond 2021, but takes into account media-induced panic as it’s generated daily. The Democrat media was creative in using racial issues to gain legitimacy, but it doesn’t look like there’s any more rabbits in the bag.
The reason stock market experts are so awful at 3 month projections is because they’re not listening closely enough to Democrat attempts to sabotage the economy. The boy who cried wolf is always ignored. Viewer fatigue has set in.
The key factors in the next 3 months are:
- additional government stimulus
- euphoria over government change begins to weaken
- hard working entrepreneurs back to work
- employment rates keep soaring despite Covid 19
- out of control infection rates across the nation create concerns
- rising Covid 19 death rates
- US China trade war coming
- Pfizer, Moderna and Astrazeneca vaccinations begin
Corona Virus Threat Continues
Covid 19 continues to hamper employment, spending, tax generation, rent payments, and GDP. We’re not out of the woods with Covid 19 because US governments don’t want to enforce rules. Without enforcement, the next 3 months could be grim. It will suppress stock valuations.
If you look beyond December, January and February, you see a US economy on the mend. Restaurants, airlines, theme parks and major league sports will start to reawaken. Slowly, business will come back in 2021.
China and the Democrats
China has progressed phenomenally by pushing their exports, reducing imports and enforcing a border closure. Something that won’t be done in the US. Biden pretended to talk tough on China, but the markets are behaving as though no disruption to the status quo is expected. The big corporations including the monopolies all live off of cheap China exports.
See more stock market predictions and what’s in store for Facebook, Tesla, Google, Amazon and Apple. See the latest Facebook stock price, Google stock price and Tesla stock price quote. Do you use Google finance or Yahoo finance for fast stock quotes and news?
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