S&P 500 Forecast 2020 The S&P index hit a new…
Where are Stocks Headed in the 4th Quarter?
Stock prices performed very well in the 3rd quarter of 2020, one of the best quarters in ten years. For sure, volatility is evident given political tugs of war, vaccine development results, stimulus aid funding battles, unemployment reports, earning reports, and Covid infection trends.
The next 3 months will likely not be as strong than the previous three on the NASDAQ, S&P, Russell 2000 and even the Dow. The last 3 months were phenomenal given the intensity of the recession.
Corona Virus News Gaining Prominence
Six months, the vaccine development news was more science fiction than anything, but now we have a number of vaccine companies coming along quickly in testing and will be ready for government approval soon enough. Vaccine distribution won’t happen till spring 2021, but optimism will kick in at some point.
Experts believe vaccine success hasn’t been factored into the markets yet. In fact, it’s the Covid 19 stocks that are gaining press, even though the US Covid 19 cases have been maintained. The thought is that the US will enter a second wave.
Of course, the recent surges have kept number up, so a 2nd virus wave likely isn’t going to happen. More like a surge due to the cold and flu season. But we’ll see how young people react to the political and Covid 19 social distancing regulations in October.
Best Vaccine Stocks to Buy
That brings us briefly to the topic which might be the best Corona Virus vaccine stocks to buy. Pfizer has announced a successful Corona Virus vaccine and it giving hope the end of the recession and the eradication of the disease will happen soon. And NovaVax and Moderna are reporting good results. These stocks likely will be the darling stocks of 2021.
The Presidential debates are factoring into stock market forecasts too for 2021. If Joe Biden should win the election, it could mean a reversal of the last 4 years, with China coming out big winners. The Hang Seng is up after last night’s debate. Read more on the 2020 Presidential election.
However, some stock experts believe the economy will be okay with either candidate. The thought is that the Democrats will spend $3 trillion to overcome all the depressive effects their party creates. Yet that’s not a good statement for a government to make. Being anti-business, pro tax hikes, and over regulation, a Biden win has to result in a stock market fall.
Could we see a crash during this quarter? If investors and business people consider their future with the Democrats, we could indeed see a 20% drop at least. Some were calling for such a drop anyway, after suggesting stocks are way over-priced.
We’ve had a few volatile correction periods, but as we get closer to the Corona Virus vaccine distribution, you have to think the upward momentum will continue. Under President Trump, there is no reason for investors to sell off and hide their money in other countries.
Record New Highs Called
The stock market for the next 3 months should rise continuously, to new highs. It looks like fundamentals are beginning to drive stock prices higher. Of course, next week’s earnings reports will give a clearer picture. Goldman Sachs earlier predicted an 18% drop in the markets in the next 6 months, but revised it after the S&P surged. Live and learn.
The markets have excelled during the pandemic, not as a response to billionaire wealth, but rather to the hope of the new United States. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ have grown 15% over the last 3 months. Stock market experts expect stocks prices to plummet but they’ve forecasted this before.
July, August and September’s Outlook
Long Forecast’s projections from July, August, September through December resonate with some experts who believe the S&P is headed for 3500 or even 4000. 4000 would be overpriced. Yet, the economy looks to roll on, into a new era and back to February’s great numbers. More stimulus will ensure that happens.
However, May’s jobs numbers were very good. The economy is in flux with some sectors such as airlines, theme parks, and restaurants collapsing. American consumers will spend their money differently in the next 6 months (e.g., not going to restaurants and instead going to Home Depot for home improvement supplies).
Investors are beginning to look beyond the Covid 19 period to stocks they would have bought if it had landed from China.
Really Poor Market Forecasting Unrecorded
It’s pretty well known that historic-based forecasting and media-hyped prediction has failed horribly. You’ve seen the technical guy’s tired reports based on historic models, and old “Warren” guys pushing their bias. Are you rich yet?
You’ve realized it’s big corporate money conditioning the market for their advantage. It sounds illegal, but it isn’t in contravention of the financial and stock market laws. They can get away with it.
Unfortunately, the big corporate media who control those channels are not going admit to their poor forecasting performance anytime soon. Go ahead and search for stock forecaster success ratings online. What did you find? Nothing right?
While social inequality protesters riot and spread the virus, fanned and fueled by your favorite media channels, it provides a nice haven for the corporate crowd to hide their actual performance record (and their motives).
We can’t have that. It’s vital to access alternative views of market factors and futures. The next 3 months for the stock markets reflect an end of the virus and a return to February’s hot stock prices. Just get a ruler and draw a line to new stock market record prices.
Moving Closer to 2021
2021 is predicted to be at record levels by most experts. Yet, it will be a turbulent upward line to 2021 where finally we’ll see the economy freed from Covid 19 and negative political reporting.
Investors are creative and smart. You’re looking for alternative perspectives, free of political bias to guide your investment decisions. Even retail investors are smart. You’re turning to AI investing services and blogs to add to your insight. And you’re looking at investment models for 2021 that screen out Democrat or Republican influences.
Next 3 Months: July, August and September
The stock markets have been affected by the Corona Virus shutdown. You can see the results from the last 3 months where employment dropped to historic lows. The US government saved the day, enough to bridge the gap to 2021.
The next 6 months are pivotal because it could be the end of the Democrat media if Biden doesn’t win. They’ve got it all on the casino table.
But now that Americans are returning to work and seeing clearly why a pro-American agenda is correct, we’re betting that US companies are going to soar. Check out US tech stocks for instance. NASDAQ is doing so well, yet the media said Silicon Valley would die because of the Republicans. Didn’t happen.
The 3 month forecast reflects the long term view beyond 2021, but takes into account media-induced panic as it’s generated daily. The Democrat media was creative in using racial issues to gain legitimacy, but it doesn’t look like there’s any more rabbits in the bag.
The reason stock market experts are so awful at 3 month projections is because they’re not listening closely enough to Democrat attempts to sabotage the economy. The boy who cried wolf is always ignored. Viewer fatigue has set in.
The key factors in the next 3 months are:
- additional government stimulus
- Democrat’s losing influence as economy rebounds
- hard working entrepreneurs back to work
- employment rates keep soaring despite Covid 19
- out of control infection rates in the Sunbelt scaring some
- lower Covid 19 death rates
- US China trade war coming
- Pfizer vaccine and other research looking positive
Corona Virus Threat Losing its Potency
The hype about infection rates is losing effect as death numbers are no longer keeping stride. In the end, the shutdown is about preventing death. Either the new market mindset doesn’t care about death or sees that the medical people are keeping victims alive.
All of this means Covid 19 is losing its grip and thus the Democrats have to adjust their attack. This week, they’ve begun focusing on taxes, and trying to mitigate the threat of Democrat tax hikes. This is the area that Democrats have to suppress. Joe Biden says he is going to reverse Trump tax breaks and tax the rich.
Taxing the rich will definitely create some sympathy, but the big economic losses occur via the China trade deficit. Democrats are nervous about China, which is on a self-destruct course lately with its clashes with India, Russia and Hong Kong.
If you look beyond July, August and September, you see a US economy on the mend. Restaurants, airlines, theme parks and major league sports are for fools. People are spending their money differently now and they may continue that way.
Stocks Rising to New Highs
The NASDAQ just rose to all time highs. The DOW JONES is struggling because of those company’s international exposure. Apple in particular is wild with insecurity. Investments in Apple stock is just foolish gambling. China is imploding, and when Apple says its making its own silicon chips, it’s really saying its making them in America.
Apple isn’t giving up on China, nor are many other corporations, but you should. China is headed for disaster. That is the stock market theme for the next 3 months.
China and the Democrats
Some event will push China into total meltdown. What will it be? Political backlash, US and NATO retaliation, financial collapse? I think the biggest shock will happen when the Democrats give up on China. I know it seems inconceivable, but China’s communist leaders are so tunnel minded about communist ideals, that the whole world is rejecting them.
This means the Democrats are currently in a complete marketing transition in the background, with Joe Biden as a smoke screen.
Joe Biden has no vigor, vision, or weight as an innovative politician. His vision of American is a key point for stock market investors who want to sell. That’s why the 3 month forecasts are so volatile. It ebbs and flows based on his capacity to threaten the Republicans.
Biden says he will return to high taxes which everyone knew, and if he could upset President Trump, it would launch a flood of money out of the US, and the US dollar would plummet.
There were a few W-shaped economic forecasts, but it’s looking like a wide V is happening. The Democrat media hyped social riots in an attempt to bring the economy and stock markets down, but they didn’t get that accomplished. They don’t have anything left other than rampant Covid 19 infections to deter the economy. It doesn’t look like that’s working as Florida nears 12,000 infections of the disease per day.
What About Corona Virus Infection Economic Slowdowns?
The Democrats CDC chief said on TV, that the Corona Virus era would end in January 2021, either through herd immunity or through a vaccination. And last week Pfizer said they have a Covid 19 vaccine that works. That leaves only short term infection management left.
The third quarter of 2020, should be a positive one for the markets. The economy overall needs more time to recover as the loss of the Airline, sports, theme parks, dentist/hair salon, restaurant businesses are difficult challenges.
By 2021, the former CDC chief says herd immunity or a vaccine will end the Corona Virus. Those words from someone skeptical should tell you things are getting better.
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