Housing Market Forecast & Predictions

Housing Market Forecast & Predictions

US Housing Market Predictions

With the slow reopening of businesses across the country, will hopeful buyers jump at newly listed homes in May and June? See NAR’s May 15th Video report below.

NAR’s forecast is for prices is to rise 1.1% and home sales to drop 15% for 2020.  And April’s housing market sales stats when released in a few days, will only reflect where we’ve been. House prices will likely see higher rises due to the fleeing of condo owners and renters to less densely populated cities and states.

 

March’s home sales fell 8.5% month to month, and April’s stats will be much worse. However, with business reopening and a vaccine possibly in the making, we could see consumer optimism begin to turn the market around.  Jobs losses and financial strife should help keep prices much more moderate than they would have been.  Without Covid 19, the housing market would be red hot right now.

infographic courtesy of NAR

 

Bottom line is that real estate is an even more precious asset when gold and oil are worthless, and equities are overvalued.

April Sales Will be Well Down

In its new report, Kiplinger forecasts home sales will home sales will report down for April 2020. They cite a 22.3% drop in new home construction along with a variety of negative business and consumer spending stats.

A new report from Autodata shows sales of cars at the lowest level since 1980, and we’re only heading into the deepest phase of underemployment and high unemployment. Auto sales are expected to drop by 4 million vehicles sold this year. The ISM index fell too, which is barometer of demand from business and consumers.

Not discussed right now is the growing cold war between the US and China. Higher China tariffs and forced repatriation of business back to the US will likely cause business reorganization, a new competitive environment, and economic and employment turbulence. However, that repatriation would be very positive for the US economy going forward for the next 5 years.

NAR Real Estate Video

It’s also reported that Wells Fargo is not offering Helocs. JPMorgan Chase is said to be limiting new home loans to borrowers only to those who have down payments of at least 20% and FICO credit scores of at least 700.

Zillow reports that close to 4 million mortgages are in forbearance. 7.3% of all mortgagees can’t pay their mortgage. This will tighten up lending rules. Buyers may want to intensify their home search before that worsens.

Yahoo reports that mortgage refinancing has hit a 7 year high, as homeowners look to lower payments or get a grace period of some kind.

There are reports that mortgage rates might fall to a record low 3.1%. MBA says refinance loans rose 225% — which is three times the rate of one year ago.

Now that business is reopening slowly, the market will have a little jump from latent demand and continue an upward trend in houses for sale too. The big worry is that we’ll see a second wave of Covid 19 infections. Let’s hope the government gets tough on hygiene, social distancing offenders, otherwise, given some people’s behavior, a second wave looks likely.

Although the stock markets have been trending up, unemployment and GDP drops are severe. The uncertainty of the Corona Virus period will suppress home sales. Higher unemployment, layoffs of high paid workers, and shut down of the travel industry are 3 key factors that will result in lower home and condo sales, and perhaps for the first time, lower home prices.

Many Americans will soon be on their own without Fed assistance and facing back rent and overdue mortgages. Cities such as Denver, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, Tulsa, Seattle, will have to face their new reality of low oil prices and minimal tourism for 2020. Boston, New York, New Jersey, Chicago and Los Angeles have their own unique hurdles to face.

Kiplinger reports single-family starts fell 17.5%, while multifamily starts dropped 31.7% in March. Building permits were weak, too, falling 6.8%. April was amidst full nationwide shutdown so the numbers will be much lower for April.

New-home sales declined strongly, by 15.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted rate of 627,000 units.

NARs next report for April won’t be out for another 3 weeks, however the March report revealed home prices continued to rise. While forecasts are justifiably downgraded for the nation, we can’t say that home prices will drop. With new construction down, renters wanting to get out of the city and out of their high density apartments, means there is demand.

Home Sales Down in March

Sales of home fell 8.5% from February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million. Despite that, overall home sales increased year-over-year for the ninth straight month, up 0.8% from a year ago (5.23 million units in March 2019).

US Home Sales March 2020. Screenshot courtesy of NAR

Total housing inventory was 1.50 million homes which was up 2.7% from February, although 10.2% less than last years inventory of 1.67 million. Unsold housing inventory rose to 3.4 month supply which is up from last months rate of 3% current sales pace yet still down from last years 3.8-month totals.

NAR reported that median existing-home prices for all housing types in March rose an astonishing 8% to $280,600, from March 2019 price of ($259,700).  This makes March’s national price an incredible 97th straight month of year-over-year gains.

US Home Prices March 2020. Screenshot courtesy of NAR

The experts were predicting a weaker housing market for the full year of 2020.  The March performance is shockingly against home sales predictions as most inventory was trapped. Will we see a home in home sales now as we head into June?

The demand for homes is falling and in some cities such as Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, New Orleans, Anchorage, and Denver, prices could plummet due the compounding effect of downward oil price forecast and the shutdown. The outlook for the oil cities is dire.

It’s likely home prices are plummeting in some cities. Dallas, Houston, and some cities in Florida and California are already seeing much fewer viewings to the point they’re closing down their offices due to the Corona Virus.  The shutdown itself is forcing home buyers online and without jobs, few will be seriously forwarded offers.

It remains to be seen whether buyers will still have a job, willingness and interest, good debt to income ratio, and a big enough down payment to buy this year. Some companies will go under and builders will be reluctant to commit billions to building housing.

The summer weather forecast however looks good, perfect weather for low virus infections and house hunting.

Pre-Corona Virus Home Sales and Prices

Let’s have a quick look at some major markets across the country. Most markets performed well and Realtors were giving rosy Q1 projections. Then Covid 19 hit. Now buyers and sellers are inquiring about the market for the next 3 months, 6 months and the 5 years and 10 year forecasts. Read more on how the Corona Virus will affect the real estate market. More data is coming in now.

Boston Housing Market

In February, Boston saw a 7.4% increase in detached homes sold, 547 units. Home prices rose 7.9% to an average of $627,900. Condo sales grew to 585% for a 7.9% increase YoY while the average condo price rose 8.5% to $575,000 . That was an increase of $45,000.

Active single home listings within Greater Boston fell by about 300 units while the number of new listings grew about 300 units. For condos, there were 50 less units for sale, while new listings grew by about 130 units. Will house prices in Boston drop? Read more about the Boston housing market forecast.

New York Housing Market

The New York housing market was very hot in January and February. NYSAR reports all home sales together. February was a very strong month. New home listings fell by about 800 units, while active listings rose about 3700 units. Median home prices rose $25,000 to $301,000 which was a strong 9.1% increase from last February.

New York’s affordability was near record lows, while prices were near record highs. Available homes were dried up which means NY was entering bubble territory before the March shutdown and recession. With Covid 19 taking hold of the city for two months, the housing market will quieten considerably. Will NYC home and condo prices fall? Read more on the New York housing market forecast.

Los Angeles Housing Market

In Metro LA, detached home prices rose $11, 500 to $550,000 for a 2.1% growth over January and a 8.9% increase YoY. Home sales grew 1% over January but 13.7% over last February. February was a solid month for real estate sales throughout the LA county region.

In Los Angeles proper, home prices actually fell $38,000 to $580,690, a 6% drop from January and 7.3% year over year. Sales were also down 8.6% from January, but were up 9.3% from last February. Will house prices plummet in the Los Angeles region? Catch up the LA housing market forecast.

San Francisco Housing Market

In San Francisco County, home prices rose an astonishing $150,000 from January to February for 10.3% rise month to month. That was a 7% increase over last February. Sales grew 19% from January, to the same level as last February.

Condo sales in San Francisco rose 27% over January’s numbers which was up 11% from last year. Average condo sales prices were a hefty $1,300,000, a rise of $110,00 over February. That price was 9.2% higher than January and 9.2% and 8.3% higher than last year. Will house prices plummet in the Bay Area? Read more on the Bay Area housing market forecast.

San Diego Housing Market

Condo sales grew well in February in San Diego County. It was a growth of 12% from January and 16% from last February. Sales prices grew more modestly at 3.5% from one month ago and 8.4% from last February.
Home prices rose $10,000 or 1.2% over January to a new average of $670,000. Sales rose 3.5 % from January and were up year over year by 7.2%. Will house prices plummet in San Diego County? Read more about the San Diego housing market forecast.

Florida Housing Market

Florida’s markets fared well in February with $7.5 billion in real estate sales. Florida Realtors Association reported a 9.1% rise in single family home sales together with 10.9% more condo sales. The median price for single-family homes across Florida grew 8% to $270,000 while the median price of a Florida condo grew by 6.7% to $200,000.

Active inventory of homes dropped by 19% to about 81000 units. Active inventory is critically low and is dropping by about 3% each month. New home listings fell by 6.2% year over year. Read more about the Florida Housing market.

Dallas Housing Market

Like most cities, Dallas February home sales did not reflect the effect of this new market contraction. The median price of a home in metro Dallas rose 4.2% to $245,000. Sales grew a strong 11.1%. Active listings fell 6.2% and there are 2.6 months of inventory which is down .3 from last February. Strangely, DOM is up to 50 days. Zillow forecasts a 5.3% selling prices in the next 12 months. Will house prices drop in Texas? Read more on the Dallas housing market forecast.

Atlanta Housing Market

Atlanta was yet one more major city with a rise in sales and home prices. Total homes and condos sold reached 6348 units which is up from January’s 5491 solds, a 13.5% rise. Active listings dropped 4.2% to 18, 163 units and residential inventory shrank 4.8% to 2.3 months. Year over year, sold units grew by 9.2% while prices 5.3%. Read more about the Atlanta housing market.

Chicago Housing Market

In Metro Chicago, in February, all home in February sales grew 6.6% to 6,057 units, year over year from February 2019 sales of 5,680 homes. The median home price in February was $240,000 in the Chicago Metro Area. That’s up 4.3% from February 2019 when it was $230,000.

In the city of Chicago, the median home price grew 6.4% to $290,000 up 6.4% from last year. There are 7507 homes for sale which is down almost 10% from last year.  Will house prices fall in Illinois? Read more about the Chicago housing market and the Illinois real estate market.

Denver Housing Market

Denver saw its median home prices rise 2.4% and sales rise 3.2% in February 2020. Avg days on market fell by 15%, and active inventory dropped by 2.2% and are down 19.6% YoY. Back in 2006, listings totalled 25,500 when Denver’s population was smaller. with only 4800 homes for sale currently, prices would have shot up considerably in March.

In February 2020 in the luxury segment, 141 million dollar homes were sold. That was a big jump of 18.5% from from January and 8.5% YoY. The total dollar volume in the luxury segment in February rose 17.6% to $215.45 billion and that’s up 8.2% YoY.  Will Denver’s strong job market hold out in 2020? Read more on the Denver Housing Market.

Housing Market Forecast: Looking for specific data related to the Dallas housing marketLos Angeles real estate market, New York real estate market forecast, Atlanta real estate marketSeattle real estate forecast, Chicago home sales projections, Philadelphia home sales report, San Diego County real estate update, Miami condo market, Boston housing market, Bay Area housing forecast, Tampa Sarasota housing outlookDenver housing outlook, and Houston housing market predictions?. See forecasts for California housing, and Florida housing markets.

Next 3 Months Not Good, But 6 Month and 5 Year Forecast is More Promising

Nar February Summary. Infographic courtesy of NAR

February’s National Housing Stats

Existing home sales grew strongly 6.5% in February to seasonally adjusted rate of 5.77 million. That was up 7.2% from last year.

The median US home price rose 8% YoY to $270,100.  Total housing inventory coming into March was 1.47 million units, down 9.8% from last February. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1 month supply same as January.

Properties were on the market for an average of 36 days in February down from 44 days last February. half of homes sold in less than a month. So sales activity was brisk.

First time buyers made up 32% of buyers which is slightly less than usual.

Lawrence Yun said “While offering a definitive forecast is extremely difficult in light of this national and global emergency, Yun says home prices will hold on well. “Unlike the stock market, home prices are not expected to drop because of the on-going housing shortage and due to homes getting delisted during this time of crisis.

Individual investors comprised 17% of sales, and all cash transactions fell from 20% from 21% in January.

Single Family Home Sales Report

NAR reports the single detached home sales rose 350,000 from January, and was up 7.3% from last year. The median price of single detached homes was $272,400 in February, up 8.1% from last year. The median price of a condo increased 7% from last years price to $249,900.

Median Home Prices History Timeline. Screenshot courtesy of NAR

Regional Home Prices

Existing home sales in the Northeast fell 4.1% yet price rose to $295,400, which is up 8.2% from last year.  In the midwest, home prices rose 7.9% to $203,700 on an increase of .8% sales. In the south, sales grew 7.2% and the median price was up 8.2%.  And in the West, sales surged 18.9% while home prices rose 8.1% from last year to an a median of $410,000.

Chart national housing supply February 2020. Screenshot courtesy of NAR.

Mortgage rates will fall as the Fed lowers the key rate which opens up big mortgages for Millennials buyers. NAR as part of its February housing market report said: According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.47% in February.  This dropped from a 3.62% rate in January. The average commitment rate across all of 2019 was 3.94%.

The 5 to 10 year price forecast is upward reflecting a downward availability of homes and intense competition. And the 2021 housing forecast look solid. The question buyers have right now is whether the stock markets will hold up.  Jobless claims in California are scary, but the Covid 19 pandemic will pass.

The virus is making stock market forecasts grim, and killing international trade. If the virus appears in the US (it is predicted to arrive) it could be very destruction.  It is drying up imports, however, its raising demand for US made products.  The story gets complicated.

After the 2008 housing crash, many homes were turned into rentals.  That’s resulted in even fewer homes up for sale.  Homeowners are staying in their homes 8 years longer today.  The story of the market is a lack of housing, insufficient construction, and low affordability.

NARs Realtor survey has been released. It’s got some good insight for buyers, sellers and Realtors alike.

Continue to US Housing Market Forecast Part 2

 

Are House Prices Dropping in California? | Housing Market Forecast Part 2 | Corona Virus and the Real Estate MarketWill Home Prices Fall?  Will the Housing Market Crash? | Will Mortgage Rates Fall? | Will the Stock Markets Crash? | Will Home Prices Fall in Florida? | Dallas Real EstateWill Stock Prices Rise in 2020? | Which Stocks Should I Buy? | Will San Diego Home Prices Fall? | Should I Buy a Home?  | When Will House Prices Drop? | Sitemap | RSS Syndication

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22 years of experience as a content researcher, strategist and SEO expert for marketing agencies and his own company. Gord's investigation into housing markets, stock markets, and AI marketing strategy helps clients achieve market dominance. Some of Gord's blog posts have achieved half a million pageviews with over 7,000 social media shares, revealing Gord Collins special talents for building reach and impact. Visit the AI Marketing website for an introduction to the AI marketing era. Artificial Intelligence is lending extra benefit to the power of marketing software which is enhancing SEO, Copywriting and Sales. Gord offers a new brand of SEO services and to regain his reputation as a leading SEO expert. See his 2nd book which describes the powerful relationship between SEO and Content Strategy. Gord's passion is researching algorithms, trends, forecasts, and market statistics to establish clients at the top.

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