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Forecast for US Housing Market 2020 to 2024
The experts are predicting a weaker housing market for the full year of 2020. The demand for homes is falling and in some cities such as Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, New Orleans, Anchorage, and Denver, prices could plummet due the compounding effect of $20 oil price and the shutdown.
It’s likely home prices are plummeting in some cities. Dallas, Houston, and some cities in Florida and California are already seeing much fewer viewings to the point they’re closing down their offices. The shutdown itself is forcing home buyers online and without jobs, few will be seriously forwarded offers.
It remains to be seen whether buyers will still have a job, willingness and interest, good debt to income ratio, and a big enough down payment to buy this year. Some companies will go under and builders will be reluctant to commit billions to building housing.
Pre-Corona Virus Home Sales and Prices
Let’s have a quick look at some major markets across the country. Most markets performed well and Realtors were giving rosy Q1 projections. Then Covid 19 hit. Now buyers and sellers are inquiring about the market for the next 3 months, 6 months and the 5 years and 10 year forecasts. So far, no one is offering up many estimates.
Boston Housing Market
In February, Boston saw a 7.4% increase in detached homes sold, 547 units. Home prices rose 7.9% to an average of $627,900. Condo sales grew to 585% for a 7.9% increase YoY while the average condo price rose 8.5% to $575,000 . That was an increase of $45,000.
Active single home listings within Greater Boston fell by about 300 units while the number of new listings grew about 300 units. For condos, there were 50 less units for sale, while new listings grew by about 130 units. Will house prices in Boston drop? Read more about the Boston housing market forecast.
New York Housing Market
The New York housing market was very hot in January and February. NYSAR reports all home sales together. February was a very strong month. New home listings fell by about 800 units, while active listings rose about 3700 units. Median home prices rose $25,000 to $301,000 which was a strong 9.1% increase from last February.
New York’s affordability was near record lows, while prices were near record highs. Available homes were dried up which means NY was entering bubble territory before the March shutdown and recession. With Covid 19 taking hold of the city for two months, the housing market will quieten considerably. Will NYC home and condo prices fall? Read more on the New York housing market forecast.
Los Angeles Housing Market
In Metro LA, detached home prices rose $11, 500 to $550,000 for a 2.1% growth over January and a 8.9% increase YoY. Home sales grew 1% over January but 13.7% over last February. February was a solid month for real estate sales throughout the LA county region.
In Los Angeles proper, home prices actually fell $38,000 to $580,690, a 6% drop from January and 7.3% year over year. Sales were also down 8.6% from January, but were up 9.3% from last February. Will house prices plummet in the Los Angeles region? Catch up the LA housing market forecast.
San Francisco Housing Market
In San Francisco County, home prices rose an astonishing $150,000 from January to February for 10.3% rise month to month. That was a 7% increase over last February. Sales grew 19% from January, to the same level as last February.
Condo sales in San Francisco rose 27% over January’s numbers which was up 11% from last year. Average condo sales prices were a hefty $1,300,000, a rise of $110,00 over February. That price was 9.2% higher than January and 9.2% and 8.3% higher than last year. Will house prices plummet in the Bay Area? Read more on the Bay Area housing market forecast.
San Diego Housing Market
Condo sales grew well in February in San Diego County. It was a growth of 12% from January and 16% from last February. Sales prices grew more modestly at 3.5% from one month ago and 8.4% from last February.
Home prices rose $10,000 or 1.2% over January to a new average of $670,000. Sales rose 3.5 % from January and were up year over year by 7.2%. Will house prices plummet in San Diego County? Read more about the San Diego housing market forecast.
Florida Housing Market
Florida’s markets fared well in February with $7.5 billion in real estate sales. Florida Realtors Association reported a 9.1% rise in single family home sales together with 10.9% more condo sales. The median price for single-family homes across Florida grew 8% to $270,000 while the median price of a Florida condo grew by 6.7% to $200,000.
Active inventory of homes dropped by 19% to about 81000 units. Active inventory is critically low and is dropping by about 3% each month. New home listings fell by 6.2% year over year. Read more about the Florida Housing market.
Dallas Housing Market
Like most cities, Dallas February home sales did not reflect the effect of this new market contraction. The median price of a home in metro Dallas rose 4.2% to $245,000. Sales grew a strong 11.1%. Active listings fell 6.2% and there are 2.6 months of inventory which is down .3 from last February. Strangely, DOM is up to 50 days. Zillow forecasts a 5.3% selling prices in the next 12 months. Will house prices drop in Texas? Read more on the Dallas housing market forecast.
Atlanta Housing Market
Atlanta was yet one more major city with a rise in sales and home prices. Total homes and condos sold reached 6348 units which is up from January’s 5491 solds, a 13.5% rise. Active listings dropped 4.2% to 18, 163 units and residential inventory shrank 4.8% to 2.3 months. Year over year, sold units grew by 9.2% while prices 5.3%. Read more about the Atlanta housing market.
Chicago Housing Market
In Metro Chicago, in February, all home in February sales grew 6.6% to 6,057 units, year over year from February 2019 sales of 5,680 homes. The median home price in February was $240,000 in the Chicago Metro Area. That’s up 4.3% from February 2019 when it was $230,000.
In the city of Chicago, the median home price grew 6.4% to $290,000 up 6.4% from last year. There are 7507 homes for sale which is down almost 10% from last year. Will house prices fall in Illinois? Read more about the Chicago housing market and the Illinois real estate market.
Denver Housing Market
Denver saw its median home prices rise 2.4% and sales rise 3.2% in February 2020. Avg days on market fell by 15%, and active inventory dropped by 2.2% and are down 19.6% YoY. Back in 2006, listings totalled 25,500 when Denver’s population was smaller. with only 4800 homes for sale currently, prices would have shot up considerably in March.
In February 2020 in the luxury segment, 141 million dollar homes were sold. That was a big jump of 18.5% from from January and 8.5% YoY. The total dollar volume in the luxury segment in February rose 17.6% to $215.45 billion and that’s up 8.2% YoY. Will Denver’s strong job market hold out in 2020? Read more on the Denver Housing Market.
Housing Market Forecast: Looking for specific data related to the Dallas housing market, Los Angeles real estate market, New York real estate market forecast, Atlanta real estate market, Seattle real estate forecast, Chicago home sales projections, Philadelphia home sales report, San Diego County real estate update, Miami condo market, Boston housing market, Bay Area housing forecast, Tampa Sarasota housing outlook, Denver housing outlook, and Houston housing market predictions?. See forecasts for California housing, and Florida housing markets.
Next 3 Months Not Good, But 6 Month and 5 Year Forecast is More Promising
February’s National Housing Stats
Existing home sales grew strongly 6.5% in February to seasonally adjusted rate of 5.77 million. That was up 7.2% from last year.
The median US home price rose 8% YoY to $270,100. Total housing inventory coming into March was 1.47 million units, down 9.8% from last February. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1 month supply same as January.
Properties were on the market for an average of 36 days in February down from 44 days last February. half of homes sold in less than a month. So sales activity was brisk.
First time buyers made up 32% of buyers which is slightly less than usual.
Lawrence Yun said “While offering a definitive forecast is extremely difficult in light of this national and global emergency, Yun says home prices will hold on well. “Unlike the stock market, home prices are not expected to drop because of the on-going housing shortage and due to homes getting delisted during this time of crisis.”
Individual investors comprised 17% of sales, and all cash transactions fell from 20% from 21% in January.
Single Family Home Sales Report
NAR reports the single detached home sales rose 350,000 from January, and was up 7.3% from last year. The median price of single detached homes was $272,400 in February, up 8.1% from last year. The median price of a condo increased 7% from last years price to $249,900.
Regional Home Prices
Existing home sales in the Northeast fell 4.1% yet price rose to $295,400, which is up 8.2% from last year. In the midwest, home prices rose 7.9% to $203,700 on an increase of .8% sales. In the south, sales grew 7.2% and the median price was up 8.2%. And in the West, sales surged 18.9% while home prices rose 8.1% from last year to an a median of $410,000.
Mortgage rates will fall as the Fed lowers the key rate which opens up big mortgages for Millennials buyers. NAR as part of its February housing market report said: According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.47% in February. This dropped from a 3.62% rate in January. The average commitment rate across all of 2019 was 3.94%.
The 5 to 10 year price forecast is upward reflecting a downward availability of homes and intense competition. And the 2021 housing forecast look solid. The question buyers have right now is whether the stock markets will hold up. Jobless claims in California are scary, but the Covid 19 pandemic will pass.
The virus is making stock market forecasts grim, and killing international trade. If the virus appears in the US (it is predicted to arrive) it could be very destruction. It is drying up imports, however, its raising demand for US made products. The story gets complicated.
After the 2008 housing crash, many homes were turned into rentals. That’s spawned a property management boom but has resulted in even fewer homes up for sale. Homeowners are staying in their homes 8 years longer today. The story of the market is a lack of housing, insufficient construction, and low affordability.
NARs Realtor survey has been released. It’s got some good insight for buyers, sellers and Realtors alike.
Strong Economy Bolsters Buyer Intent
We know the economy is going well, and with trade deals firmed up, unemployment at record lows (3.5%) and wages rising (3.7% in December). And we know Millennials (50% of total home sales and mortgages) are desperate to start their families (and for years to come) and they are starting to buy.
If the experts believe US spending cutbacks, low builder output, low housing listings, skittish lenders, and the election will keep sales low, then I guess we have to mention it.
“Housing appears poised to take a leading role in real GDP growth over the forecast horizon for the first time in years, further bolstering our modest-but-solid growth forecasts through 2021,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist.
Home Prices Across the Country
See more insight on the major California housing market and Florida housing market forecasts. Looking for specific city housing markets? See Bay Area housing market, Los Angeles housing market, San Diego housing market, Sacramento housing, Seattle housing, Atlanta housing market, Philadelphia housing market, Boston Housing market, New York housing market, Chicago housing market, Dallas, and Miami housing market reports.
Mansion Global in its report says Millennials will drive the housing market in 2020. 4.8 million millennials are reaching 30 years of age, and are ready to buy. Many will be moving to the suburbs away from their small city apartments. From November, you can see Millennial buyer demand has already been building.
Kiplinger in its report suggests shortages will grow as builders can’t get financing from banks. They point out that housing inventories are down 10% to 30% in many cities. They believe prices will rise 6% for the next few years.
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NAR’s January Housing Sales Report
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes dropped 1.3% from the previous year. Home sales were a 5.46 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, a slight drop from December. However, Year over year, sales were up 9.6% (almost 500,000 more).
Median home price for all existing housing types reached $266,300, down about $8000 from December. That is the first decline after 94th consecutive month of price rises.
Consistent with the resurgence of America’s heartland, the midwest had the highest price growth of 9.2% or $17,600 over the last 12 months.
New Construction Permits
According to census.gov, nationwide building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,551,000. This is down 9.2% below Decembers numbers. Single‐family housing starts to 987,000 which is significantly down from Decembers but slightly above Novembers totals.
Housing starts fell 3.6% from December but this number is still 21% higher than last January. Multifamily starts with 5 or more units rose to 547,000. Single family housing starts fell 3.5% from December.
Housing completions fell 3.3% from December’s totals but were up 1.1% on seasonal average.
All good news, however much of the production is not in the target range of most buyers.
|Construction Starts – Major Cities||Single Family Homes|
|Time Period||Nov-19||Nov-18||% CHG||2018|
|Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA||24,075||24,602||-2%||26,500|
|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX||32,383||34,241||-5%||36,800|
|Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX||36,819||37,663||-2%||4050|
|Las Vegas-Paradise NV||8,773||9,123||-4%||9700|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA||8,303||9,314||-11%||10,042|
|Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL||6,594||6,564||0%||7,000|
|Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI||1,428||1,638||-13%||1,730|
|Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI||8,654||8,344||4%||8,900|
|New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner LA||2,944||2,771||6%||3,050|
|New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island NY-NJ-PA||10,881||9,346||16%||11,000|
|San Antonio TX||8,411||7,576||11%||8,000|
|San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA||2,824||3,352||-16%||3,490|
|San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA||3,510||3,728||-6%||4,050|
|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA||2,358||2,267||4%||2,466|
|St. Louis MO-IL||4,823||4,944||-2%||5,248|
|Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL||13,626||13,344||2%||14,200|
New Construction Permits -Data courtesy of NAHB
They’re starting to believe in the strength and persistence of the US economy, yet see that construction will never keep up to demand.
NAR’s Lawrence Yun, reiterated how low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are encouraging home sales. New housing construction starts rose in October too, the highest levels since 2007.
There are still fears of a housing market crash, spawned by fears of a stock market crash and slowing global economy. Yet, the US economy continues on very well and the global economy is recovering. As I’ve been forecasting for a long time now, economic and political factors point to a potential bull market in the US starting in 2020, together with low interest rates, although not good conditions for China (Trade deal looks on thin ice, and will likely not hold).
With tax breaks ending for high end homes, sales of luxury homes should moderate further. However, sales of high end homes is up in Florida and California. NAR says the hottest cities nationwide were Columbus, Ohio; Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.; Midland, Texas; and Sacramento and Stockton-Lodi, California.
See more on the California housing market, Florida real estate market, Los Angeles housing market, San Diego housing market and a thorough report on US housing on the ManageCasa property management software’s website.
Total housing inventory at the end of October was 1.77 million units. This is a drop of 2.7% from September and down 4.3% from last October (1.85 million units).
Housing Starts Outlook Brightens
According to census.gov, builder confidence has resumed. New construction stats were the best since 2007, however, in January new permits slowed. With only 3.1 months of supply, it is the lack of residential listings that’s taking center stage. New construction must stay high to satiate buyer demand.
Multifamily construction grew strongly, above 8%. If trade deal worries ease and business confidence grows, the spring market could be a hot one.
Forecast for New Residential Home Construction Next 5 Years
Statista suggests home building will decrease in 2020, and perhaps thereafter with reduced supply, housing prices will rise once again fueling builder intent.
With 1.68 million homes available, buyers are waiting for the best time to buy. A NAR survey recently suggested that right now may be the best time to buy.
Why would buying this winter be a wise choice?
- low interest and mortgage rates
- new housing construction dropping
- lots of new construction being released
- recent economic data is positive
- large number of homes now on the market
The chart below from Advisor Perspectives shows how lasting the last recession was, and that confidence and buying intent still is on the mend. With the recent economic setback overcome, consumer confidence should increase.
Next 5 Years Housing Factors Positive
The Job market forecast is excellent with unemployment falling to a persistent 3.6%. And mortgage rates are forecast to fall. S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 9 months. The hottest cities now are Midland, Texas; Chico, California; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Spokane Washington; and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California. Recession fears are causing some to think now is the time to sell.
Will the big markets in Florida and California bloom or will the smaller cities continue to draw workers, construction and home purchases? At this point, both look possible. More is better when it comes to housing, so a transition of workers and immigrants to the heartland could have more beneficial effects than many might expect.
This new update and projections for the 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period ahead for the US housing market offers key facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from top sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.
Although worries of a housing crash persist, a housing hungry Millennial middle class, and powerful economic performance will any outweigh housing crash indicators. As you’ll see in the charts, videos and opinions below this market is an interesting phase.
This United States Housing Report is the most widely read and thorough update/prediction for 2019/2020, and other housing and economic data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates!
Mortgage Rate Forecast 2020
It’s true, mortgage rates are forecast to fall and there’s some good deals for home loans and refinance loans. According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.47% in February 2020. This is down from a 3.62% rate in January. The average commitment rate in 2019 was 3.94%.
Check out more on the mortgage rate forecast for US lending institutions and firms including Lendingtree, USBank, Bank of America, Quickenloans, Zillow Home Loans, HSBC, WellsFargo, Loandepot, Chase Bank, and more.
Why Will Rates Fall, and When Will They Rise Again?
Should you buy or refinance now? The forecast is for lower mortgage rate quotes. We may get back to rates as low ast 3.6%. Lower income buyers would be struggling to buy at current prices and as affordable homes hit the market, they can finally buy.
Which are the most expensive cities to buy a home? San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Cities with the worst negative equity include Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, and Memphis. San Jose and San Francisco lead the way in positive equity. You’ll find better deals in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, and Houston. See the California housing market predictions, Florida housing predictions , Illinois housing market and New York housing predictions in more detail.
What’s Ahead for 2020?
The fall elections and 2020 Presidential elections are on people’s minds. Everyone’s eager to buy or sell at the right time and a Trump defeat could send both US stock markets and housing markets crashing. The best guess is that Donald Trump will win narrowly in 2020 and keep protecting fragile US business startups.
However, new housing construction starts fell by 12% in June and multifamily dropped significantly. Post free trade adjustments, higher mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty will reduce new home building. Lumber prices have dropped fast, however home prices are predicted to keeping rising. Good news for sellers.
Housing Market Synopsis: The US real estate market continues to grow with rising prices, new construction, supported by a strengthening domestic economy. President Trump as plenty of options to boost the economic forecast and city housing markets from California to Texas to Florida. It is a sellers market across the country, with persistent, buyer demand, despite gloomy housing crash forecasts for the last 4 years which missed the mark.
Check recent house prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Sacramento, Denver, Chicago, and Atlanta. Also see how the Seattle, Houston, Miami, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Orlando/Tampa housing markets are predicted to perform this year.
The dwindling numbers of homes for sale are expected to push prices upward in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Diego, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Seattle, New York and and in Florida. It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.
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What’s Driving the California Housing Market?
Check out the California housing market forecast, which has a strong latent and active demand from an eager demographic.
Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets: Florida Housing Forecast 2020 | Sacramento Housing Market | San Francisco Housing Market | Boston Real Estate Market 2020 | Miami Housing Market | Los Angeles Real Estate Forecast | Chicago Housing Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast | Philadelphia Real Estate Market | Seattle Housing Report
Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the US economy, low jobless rate, wage growth, investment, strong dollar, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.
The US Economic Progress to 2020
These stats from Trading Economics show positive US economic fundamentals that will drive growth in the housing market, and in turn will bolster the economy, since new household consumer spending and housing investment is a key driver of the economy.
As President Trump’s Tax cuts wind down, the Fed has raised interest rates twice in 2019. It’s just one of the issues sparking stock market volatility. Is it enough to scuttle optimistic stock market predictions? No one is quite sure if its a crash or continued booming cycle. More forecasts though are for a good economy, strong home sales, low unemployment, and a well performing stock market.
Buyers and sellers will enjoy reading the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture! Scroll down to see the stats, video, and charts on the strongest cities where you might buy or invest. And when is the best time to buy a house?
Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies
Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise. With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale.
Hottest Cities for Investment Value
This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.
Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil and gasoline prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2019, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2020 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.
Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miami, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco. The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at. Seattle, Denver, Boston, South Florida, Palm Beach, Philadelphia and New York have a promising outlook too.
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If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash? House Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.
There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US real estate market for 4 more years.
What’s Your Forecast for the next 5 Years?
What’s the forecast and trends for the next 5 years in your region? If you’re in Miami Fort Lauderdale, San Diego, San Francisco, Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas Texas, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear.
If housing isn’t your cup of tea, check out the stock market forecast. See today’s stock prices on the NASDAQ, S&P charts . Yes, it’s still a stock market crash but hang on there, it will come back in July.
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