US Housing Market Predictions – Real Estate Market Forecast 2018 2019

US Housing Market Predictions – Real Estate Market Forecast 2018 2019

Housing Forecast 2018, 2019,  2020

This new update and forecast of the 2019, 2020 US housing market offers key facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.

Enjoy all charts, videos, data, graphics, insight and expert opinions below. Some are forecasting a housing crash (or hoping for one), however the growth of the housing hungry Millennial middle class, and powerful economic performance are factors that might outweigh all other housing market data. It’s difficult to be negative about the US housing market, only that it’s not even better.

This United States Housing Report is the most widely read and thorough update/prediction for 2018 to 2020, and other housing and economic data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates!

September Housing Market Update

NAR hasn’t released its September housing stats however in their August report, they found that sales were up in August after 4 months of decline. According to NAR, house prices nationally rose about $5500 to $253,100. In California and the rest of the west, prices rose $1600 to $374,900.  NAR believes home prices will rise 9% YoY in 2019.

Zillow reports the average home price in September 2018 was $218,000. They forecast a rise in price of 6.4% over the next 12 months.  Homes in Washington and Colorado are the most expensive on average at above $333k. Average rental prices have leveled off at $1,442 per month nationally.

Most expensive cities to buy a home?  San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Cities with the worst negative equity include Chicago, Las Vegas, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, and Memphis. San Jose and San Francisco lead the way in positive equity.

Here’s a look at rank and prices for the top Metros for July. The high DOM reveal that prices are way out of what most buyers could afford, so they sit longer:

City Nielsen Rank Median Listing Price Median Listing Price M/M Median Listing Price Y/Y Days on Market
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 1 $519050 -0.2% 8.2% 61
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 2 $834050 -1.6% 4.4% 40
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 3 $324950 -1.0% 4.9% 48
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4 $349950 -2.3% 0.0% 38
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5 $328025 -1.5% 3.1% 52
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6 $299950 0.0% 3.5% 62
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 7 $499950 -2.9% -4.8% 46
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 8 $506050 -1.3% 1.2% 76
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 9 $338550 -1.5% 12.7% 46
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 10 $534050 -2.7% 4.7% 44
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 11 $1000015 -9.6% 5.5% 30
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 12 $260050 -1.9% 6.2% 38
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 13 $350050 -2.4% 6.1% 45
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 14 $599050 -0.7% 14.1% 31
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 15 $370040 -1.3% 5.7% 38
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 16 $399950 -0.3% 5.2% 46
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 17 $285050 -1.2% 1.8% 58
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 18 $775020 -1.2% 1.0% 37
St. Louis, MO-IL 19 $214950 -0.1% 7.5% 51
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 20 $498045 -0.4% -8.2% 34
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 21 $420050 0.0% 2.4% 51
Pittsburgh, PA 22 $174950 -0.1% 2.9% 57
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 23 $495050 -1.0% 3.2% 38
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 24 $350050 -2.8% 1.5% 54
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 25 $339050 -1.0% 3.5% 60
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 26 $185484 -1.1% 9.1% 51
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 27 $295020 -0.3% 2.0% 51
Cincinnati, OH 28 $265050 -1.6% 10.5% 41
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA 29 $469050 -2.0% 0.3% 37

Above state courtesy of NAR

What’s Ahead for 2019/2020?

The fall elections and 2020 Presidential elections are on people’s minds. Everyone’s eager to buy or sell at the right time and a Trump defeat could send both US stock markets and housing markets crashing.  The best guess is that Trump will win narrowly in 2020 and keep protecting fragile US business startups.

However, new housing construction starts fell by 12% in June and multifamily dropped significantly.  Post free trade adjustments, higher mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty will reduce new home building. Lumber prices have dropped fast, however home prices are predicted to keeping rising. Good news for sellers.

Housing Market Synopsis: The US housing market continues to grow with rising prices, new construction, supported by a strengthening domestic economy. President Trump as plenty of options to boost the economic forecast and city housing markets from California to Texas to Florida. It is a sellers market across the country, with persistent, buyer demand, despite gloomy housing crash forecasts for the last 4 years which missed the mark.

Low Supply Continues to Push High Price Growth

A persistently strong economy, low unemployment, burgeoning Millennial buyers, and high savings rate, combined with low mortgage rates is making the housing market an inviting place for most home buyers. Unlike the coming China housing crash, the US housing market is stable and optimistic — backed by a strong economic forecast.

Home sales continued to fall in April to June. Once trade issues with the EU and China are resolved one way or another, demand will push prices up higher in 2019.

Other Numbers from Zillow Research: The median home value in June 2018 was $217,300, up 8.3% from last June and median rent in was $1,440, up 1.3% YoY.  50% of all U.S. homes have regained their values before the 2007 crash.

In 6 major metros, 90% of homes have yet to recover all the value lost during the last crash: Las Vegas (0.8 percent), Hartford, Conn. (3.7 percent), Orlando, Fla. (5.4 percent), Riverside, Calif. (6.5 percent) and Baltimore (8.7 percent) and Miami (9.6 percent).

Check recent house prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Sacramento, Seattle, Houston, Miami, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Orlando/Tampa.


Prices Will Rise Another 5% by 2019

According to new data released by NAR, home prices are still rising although a lack of listings are suppressing sales. It’s been 35 straight months of declines in homes for sale.

Sellers are demanding record prices while first time buyers can’t afford them or the prices of new housing stock being built. On a more positive note is growing listings and a booming US economy. That’s generated price rise forecasts of over 5% this year, or twice that of inflation and wage growth.

With home prices and mortgage rates on the rise perhaps to 5% by end of 2019, find out your could be paying: future mortage rates. Shop for the lowest mortgage rate now.


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In this updated report and housing forecast:

  1. Market update
  2. Hottest cities to buy
  3. NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
  4. Home price update and predictions
  5. US economic outlook – Tradingeconomics data
  6. Urban Land Institute panel discussion Video
  7. Freddie Mac Forecasts
  8. Jobs report and forecast
  9. Interest rates and mortgage rates
  10. Apartment rental prices and forecast

NAR reports that existing home sales grew in April, 1.1% which is well up from the 1.2% loss 12 months ago.  See the NAR charts below for others stats and which are the hottest markets for April.

Summer Market is Stable

Existing home sales fell only slightly (.06%) in June while new home sales dropped 5.3%.

Home prices rose 5.2% to $276,900 average which was the 76th straight of increases. Regardless of market and economic conditions, prices keep rising. In June, there were 1.95 million existing homes available for sale, up half a percent from one year ago.

Homes were on the market for an average 36 days, which is just 2 less than last June. First time buyers comprised  31% of sales according to NAR and 22% of sales were all cash, up slightly from last June.

Existing single-family homes sold at $279,300 in June, up 5.2% from June 2017’s median value. Existing condo sales hit a rate of 620,000 units in June, sam as May, which is 1.6% less than a year ago. The median existing condo price was $258,100 in June (4.9% less than last June).

According to Zillow, home prices are rising above expectations:

Screen Capture courtesy of

Home prices stayed high so it’s a sellers market and it will be for some time. If you’re hunting for houses for sale, you’d be wise to use an advanced search strategy.

The dwindling numbers of homes for sale should push prices upward in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Diego, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas,  Seattle, New York, and Houston  and in Florida. It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.


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It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who face a big decision about buying a home or condo in 2018 as home prices and mortgage rates rise.

New Home Construction Still Going Strong

Millennials still hopeful to buy a home in 2018

Housing inventory is the most influential and persistent factor affecting home prices. Despite this, the media and some politicians blame speculation, building costs, interest and mortgage rates, cost of living, and mortgage rules. When the economy is good people want homes. Construction is strong but can’t keep up. Simple rule of supply vs demand is driving home prices and creating the housing crisis.

Looking for housing market predictions? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.



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What’s Driving the California Housing Market?

Strong demand from an eager demographic and economy is clashing with local resident NIMBYism to create a volatile market along with homelessness. See the California housing report.


NAR’s VP of research Paul Bishop, predicts sales will be flat for all of 2018.

One of the biggest challenges is going to be in certain high-cost parts of the country where they have high home prices, relatively high property taxes or high state income taxes, then that’s ultimately going to make the cost of owning a home more expensive.

In addition, renters may lose the incentive to buy a home in high-cost areas if they can’t use the mortgage interest deduction or the ability to deduct some of those other housing-related costs from their taxes. It’s focused mostly on the higher cost areas. It’s certainly something that everyone will be monitoring and how the housing market reacts in 2018 and 2019  — from a news release on


Some cities will have their issues, however San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Philadelphia, Las Vegas and Phoenix look very good reight now

The Complete Picture for 2018/2019

Ready to choose your realtor and buy a house or condo this year? The outlook is really rosy! And how about investing in a rental income property for sustained passive income? This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy if you can find a home. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.

Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing market are positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.

Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets:  Sacramento Housing MarketSan Francisco Housing Market |  Boston Real Estate Market 2018 | Florida Housing Forecast 2018 | Miami Housing Market |  Los Angeles Real Estate Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast |  Philadelphia Real Estate MarketSeattle Housing Report


US Rental Market Update

As Zillow reports apartment rents rose 1.3% over the last year, and yet have levelled off this summer.  Rentcafe offers different numbers for each rental type.

Bedroom Type Average Rent Change M-o-M Change Y-o-Y
Studio $1,259 0.20% 2.5%
1 Bed $1,225 0.10% 3.4%
2 Beds $1,408 0.10% 3.5%
3 Beds $1,644 0.20% 3.2%

National Rental Housing Data Courtesy of

This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).

Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.

Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.

NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market

Housing Indicator® 2018 Forecast
Home price appreciation 3.2% increase
Mortgage rate Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end
Existing home sales 2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing
Housing starts 3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses
New home sales Growth of 7%
Home ownership rate Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally



Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the jobs picture, wage growth, investment, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.

The resistance to housing development is slowing. Conservatives are giving up amidst intense pressure by those facing outrageous housing shortages and skyrocketing rental prices.

Housing Shortages Won’t Ease

Although January’s sales were disappointing, it’s due to the severe shortage of housing. Demand is there and you’ll be competing against a hoard of buyers in 2018.  Corelogic expects 2018’s home prices will grow 4.3% by next December.  NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices this year. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.

The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’s tumbled. Listings fell dramatically in cental California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.

Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.

The US Economy 2018/2019

These stats from Trading Economics show positive fundamentals that will drive growth in the housing market, and in turn will bolster the economy, since new household consumer spending and housing investment is a key driver of the economy.

The tax cuts should help although the Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden stock market volatility.  Although some disincentives are present for home buying in certain price ranges, that will help keep the market balanced for 2018.

Home prices should begin rising again this late spring in FloridaNew York , Boston, San DiegoHouston, MiamiSeattle, Bay Area and the rest of  overheated California.

Buyers and sellers will enjoy reading the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture!

Scroll down to see the stats, video, and charts on the strongest cities where you might buy or invest. And when is the best time to buy a house?

NAR Housing Report June 2018

Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party

Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.

Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers,  all of whom are looking for houses for sale.

New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018

New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.

The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Philadelphia, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.

The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.

Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies

Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise.  With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale.

Mortgage Rates on the Rise

15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.

Houses For Sale – Should You Buy or Sell in 2018?

The forecasts and predictions for housing markets in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, New York, Misami, Houston, Seattle, and San Diego etc. all suggest better times ahead. Will the China housing market crash result from American revival?

See the post on the best cities to invest in real estate. Where can you find houses for sale with the best upside potential as a high return property investment?

Housing Expert’s Predictions and a Lot More

Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac.  The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.

Should buy or sell? See the specific market updates and predictions here: Los Angeles Real Estate forecast, San Francisco Bay Area forecast, New York Real Estate forecastPhiladelphia Housing Report , Boston Real Estate forecast, San Diego Real Estate forecast, Houston Texas Housing forecast, Seattle Real Estate forecast and the Miami Real Estate forecast. Bookmark this page for future monthly updates.

The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy.  Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.

Home Sales Expect to Rise Nationally

Freddie Mac Predicts strong sales driven by moderating prices nationally.

And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.

Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer

According to NAR’s latest report, San Francisco is again the hottest city, taking back the number one spot from San Jose. The hottest small city is Vallejo California, enjoying a spillover from the Bay Area market.  Investors and buyers will be hard pressed to find buying opportunities are.

Silicon Valley prices will pressure businesses to look to cheaper cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas, Houston, Austin, etc in 2018/2019.

Hottest Real Estate Markets in April 2018

Where are the hottest cities in the US? They’re all over this month and only 3 from California made the new top 20 list.

Screen Capture courtesy of

Hottest Cities for Investment Value

This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.

Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil and gasoline prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.

Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.

20 Hottest Housing Markets, January 2018 ( Rank (December) Rank Change Current Home Prices
San Francisco, CA 2 1 $1,249,000
San Jose, CA 1 -1 $875,000
Vallejo, CA 3 0 $390,000
Colorado Springs, CO 4 0 $270,000
Midland, TX 18 13 $265,000
San Diego, CA 6 0 $590,000
Santa Rosa, CA 7 1 $310,000
Sacramento, CA 8 2 $310,000
Denver, CO 11 2 $400,000
Stockton, CA 5 -5 $289,000
Modesto, CA 10 -1 $295,000
Dallas, TX 14 2 $360,000
Fresno, CA 12 -1 $205,000
Los Angeles, CA 16 2 $759,000
Columbus, OH 9 -6 $140,000
Chico, CA 29 13 $349,000
Oxnard, CA 21 4 $505,000
Santa Cruz, CA 27 9 $909,000
Detroit, MI 19 0 $349,000



Best Cities to Buy Properties

Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For property investors or buyers with minimal cash, the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modesto, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale.

As usual, California and Texas lead the way, however Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other midwest cities are looking good with the President’s intention to bring the auto industry and related jobs back to the US.

In some markets such as Californiahome prices have leveled off a little from their relentless climb. There is a slight risk of a burst housing bubble. Outside of major city markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.

Here Panelists from the Urban Land Institution discusses 2017 and the next two year outlook:

8 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:

  1. home prices are appreciating and it’s a safe investment over the long term
  2. millennials need a home to raise their families
  3. rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
  4. flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
  5. real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
  6. the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
  7. foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
  8. bankrupt buyers are over their 7 year prohibition from the last recession and they can buy again.

Latest real estate market reports:

There are more renters now than in the last 30 years.

US homes are at their highest value ever

Foreign buyers buying record number of properties

Housing starts more than expected but not enough to fill demand

New Houses for sale dropped 3.4% in August

Resale houses for sale drops in August

Read on to learn more about the economic fundamentals that suppport your purchase of real estate:

Buying and Selling — Is This the Right Time?

Are you selling your home? Speculation of a housing crash in Miami, State of FloridaLos Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, San Diego, San Jose, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets has more people listing their house or condo. Yet, the market is healthy, so there’s no emergency. Prices are stable so you won’t get much more by waiting.

Check out these other posts for homebuyers, investors, and realtors:

How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | Student Housing Investment | 10 Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price | Home Sellers Pricing Strategy | Better House Market Evaluation

Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2018 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month to 2024. The building is resuming now that the hurricanes and forest fires are over.

Will it be enough to support the economy? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units per month is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.

What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.

From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King

Will Los Angeles Lead the Nation in 2017 in Real Estate?

Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco.  The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at.  Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, Philadelphia and New York  have a promising outlook too.


Short list of positive factors to bolster US Housing Market :

  1. moderately rising mortgage rates
  2. president Trump’s new tax plan
  3. low risk of a housing bubble / crash for most cities
  4. millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
  5. a trend to government deregulation
  6. labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
  7. the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history

Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc.

Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead. Looking to put your house up for sale in 2018? Find a Realtor now.

Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics

These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.

Sharing is Good for your Social Health! 

Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!

Expert Predictions – US Housing 

1.  Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.

These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%.  — BusinessWire

2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.

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Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise

It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.


Car Insurance Quotes: Are you looking to save money for a down payment, save money with the lowest car insurance, find the lowest mortgage rate, or get a free market evaluation? Are you a realtor looking for US real estate leads?

If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crashHouse Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.

FRED – Home Prices

Screen Capture courtesy of Freddie Mac – Home Prices up $100k in last 6 years

US Mortgage Rate Trends

US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases.

With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the 2019 housing market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.

30 year fixed rate mortgage rate last 10 years – Screen Capture courtesy of Freddie Mac

US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024


According to BLS the job outlook is positive. Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with 226,000 more than last year, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Residential building construction trended up by 5,000 jobs. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.

National Employment Growth Employment Growth Predictions, 2014–24 Median annual wage, 2014
2014 2024 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 150,539,000 160,328,000 9,788,900 6.5 $35,540


Job Growth by Occupation to 2026

2016 National Employment Matrix title and code (Chart data courtesy of BLS
Employment Change, 2016–26
Median annual wage 2016
2016 2026 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 156,063.80 167,582.30 11,518.60 7.4 $37,040
Personal care aides 2,016.10 2,793.80 777.6 38.6 $21,920
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 3,452.20 4,032.10 579.9 16.8 $19,440
Registered nurses 2,955.20 3,393.20 438.1 14.8 $68,450
Home health aides 911.5 1,342.70 431.2 47.3 $22,600
Software developers, applications 831.3 1,086.60 255.4 30.7 $100,080
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,384.60 2,621.20 236.5 9.9 $24,190
General and operations managers 2,263.10 2,468.30 205.2 9.1 $99,310
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 2,628.40 2,828.10 199.7 7.6 $25,980
Medical assistants 634.4 818.4 183.9 29 $31,540
Waiters and waitresses 2,600.50 2,783.00 182.5 7 $19,990
Nursing assistants 1,510.30 1,683.70 173.4 11.5 $26,590
Construction laborers 1,216.70 1,367.10 150.4 12.4 $33,430
Cooks, restaurant 1,231.90 1,377.20 145.3 11.8 $24,140
Accountants and auditors 1,397.70 1,537.60 139.9 10 $68,150
Market research analysts and marketing specialists 595.4 733.7 138.3 23.2 $62,560
Customer service representatives 2,784.50 2,920.80 136.3 4.9 $32,300
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers 1,197.90 1,333.10 135.2 11.3 $26,320
Medical secretaries 574.2 703.2 129 22.5 $33,730
Management analysts 806.4 921.6 115.2 14.3 $81,330
Maintenance and repair workers, general 1,432.60 1,545.10 112.5 7.9 $36,940
Teacher assistants 1,308.10 1,417.60 109.5 8.4 $25,410
Financial managers 580.4 689 108.6 18.7 $121,750
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 1,871.70 1,980.10 108.4 5.8 $41,340
Elementary school teachers, except special education 1,410.90 1,514.90 104.1 7.4 $55,800
Stock clerks and order fillers 2,008.60 2,109.60 100.9 5 $23,840
Teachers and instructors, all other 993.9 1,091.80 98 9.9 $30,110
Receptionists and information clerks 1,053.70 1,149.20 95.5 9.1 $27,920
Sales representatives, services, all other 983 1,077.90 94.9 9.7 $52,490
Business operations specialists, all other 1,023.90 1,114.30 90.3 8.8 $69,040
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 724.5 813.4 88.9 12.3 $44,090


US Housing Starts to 2024

New Housing starts and predictions to year 2024


This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.


 Graphic courtesy of

30 year and 15 Year Mortgage rates Graphic courtesy of


Housing and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts 928 1,001 1,107 1,177 1,204 1,246 1,299
Single Family 620 647 712 784 842 900 962
Multifamily 308 355 395 393 362 346 337
New Single Family Sales 430 440 503 561 610 647 693
Existing Single-Family Home Sales 4,475 4,338 4,627 4,828 4,978 5,029 5,119
Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate 0.13% 0.13% 0.38% 0.63% 1.13% 1.88% 2.38%
90 day T Bill Rate 0.06% 0.03% 0.05% 0.32% 0.96% 1.71% 2.22%
Treasury Yields:
One Year Maturity 0.13% 0.12% 0.32% 0.61% 1.20% 2.41% 2.70%
Ten Year Maturity 2.35% 2.54% 2.14% 1.84% 2.38% 2.82% 3.22%
Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages 3.98% 4.17% 3.85% 3.65% 4.10% 4.54% 4.96%
ARMs 2.88% 3.17% 2.94% 2.87% 3.18% 3.62% 4.04%
Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.26% 3.51% 4.15% 4.98% 5.48%
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual

Chart stats courtesy of

Multifamily Home Starts - Millennial Buying Forecast


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Saving on car might even cut your home insurance and give you more money for your home downpayment. Check now for the lowest quotes for car insurance Los Angeles, car insurance Boston, auto insurance San Francisco, auto insurance Denver, car insurance Toronto, and car insurance Chicago.

New Home Construction Prediction - Home Resales

Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.

f4 Graphic courtesy of

Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.

Existing Home Sales to 2020 - Prediction to 2020 Graphic courtesy of

Apartment Rental Forecast

Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.

Chart courtesy of RealPage

Cities with the most apartment construction include Dallas, Houston and Austin, reflecting Texas strong recovery. For more information, see this post on the best cities to buy real estate and best cities to live in and with the best job outlook.

Rental City Markets with Top Growth

Yardi released its winter national outlook report and forecasts a 2.5% increase.

There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years.

What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?

What’s the forecast and trends for the real estate sales in your region? If you’re in Vancouver, Toronto, Miami Fort Lauderdale, San Diego, San Francisco, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear.

Check out other housing markets including Toronto, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Montreal, New York, San Diego, Los Angeles, Florida, and San Francisco California.

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Housing Market Predictions 2019

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  • Kara
    Posted at 05:08h, 15 August Reply

    There is no way that Trump can truly help the market with out making more promises that he will pull out like most of his deals that were to good to be true. We will have more housing issues before bubble burst. What about the middle class that are trying to get back on their feet? The younger generation has seen there parents lose jobs and homes. Younger people save more money and rather spend their money on living life instead of being trapped in a 30 year mortgage. Don’t get me wrong they will purchase homes but they will go for a 15 year mortgage or go tiny living. This generation are all too aware that a six figure income is like living on 80k-75k or less. Especially, if they are married. Let’s not forget they have more student loans that tremendously increase their debt to income ratio. Their average income is less than 45k for with degrees. Also, recent survey was done on those who made over 100k and ask if the could come up in with $3000 in 30 days. Most didn’t have the cash on readily available without tapping into other resources. The reason there is scarity in homes available for sales is because the ones that are able to keep their homes need more equity to purchase a more over priced home. My point is banks, mortgage lenders and local government are the ones that control the market not Presidents.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 21:53h, 15 August Reply

      Kara, we’ll certainly see whether Trump will or can keep his word. It seems to me that income polarization became a problem along with global free trade. If free trade becomes fair trade as Trump is suggesting, that might be a way to bring back the middle class. Hillary Clinton is said to be the “status quo candidate” so she won’t be doing anything about the China trade deficit. This president will have some effect on things I’m pretty sure. He’s generating a lot of resistance though and who knows, OPEC may jam up the price of oil just they see it as a good time to cripple the US. So many variables! Yes the banks and local governments can be a problem such as in LA where the California Environmental Quality Act is preventing new home building leading to sky high prices of homes.

  • Jeff
    Posted at 13:26h, 28 August Reply

    At a pathetic growth rate of 1.1% of the US Economy, the election of Hillary Clinton will continue this stagnant trend and perhaps cause deterioration of even THAT rate.

    Our economy is poised to explode with pent-up demand. The current “status quo” president has countered every growth opportunity with domestic regulation and debt / deficit load.

    Unless the power of our own economic engine domestically is unleashed, the pressure of holding down home sales and mortgage loans will continue its steady trend of stagnation or decline over the longrun.

    There are many leading economic indicators and depending on political party affiliation, one can cherry pick and boast either positive or negative effects, to their storyline.

    Hoever, the aggregate effect of long term indicator trends is what really counts.

    I see a dismal Hillary Clinton economy, plagued, burdened, and compounded by the damage Barack Obama has done to it.

    I see a robust economy in most industry sectors ready to go at the starting gate with a Donald Trump presidency, with this man at the helm who knows how to leverage trade deals internationally and bring a ROI on our US based assets, with growth opportunities through tax incentives, vis a vis, a community organizer and his successor who have constantly sucked the life out of their American Host….. you.

    Until, and once the uncertainty is reduced, THEN we can get back to a cyclic economy with statistical smoothing that offers better predictions of our future.

    Until then, home prices and their sellers, bank appraisals, and buyers will suffer.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 23:02h, 29 August Reply

      Thanks Jeff. I don’t know about cyclical economies. I always get sea sick. I think Trump will win, but his fanaticism is a worrying characteristic that turns voters off. The only one who can defeat Trump, is Donald Trump. He needs to calm down as the victory is his already. If he can cut the China trade deficit in half, it would be the best economic decision the US has made in a long time. He wants to cut red tape and that could free up real estate developers and cause prices to drop. Then all the millennials will get to buy a home.

  • Miami Broker
    Posted at 16:23h, 25 September Reply

    Gord- to be honest, and not to rain on the parade, I don’t foresee these prices holding up as NAR likes to predict. I’ve been a Realtor for the last 15 years, started in residential but, over the last 10 years, Ive found a niche in one of the commercial real estate sectors.

    NAR always has to be optimistic. If they weren’t, people would question their choice to buy a home, which means less realtors, then less fees for NAR. (Don’t get me wrong, they do put out some good data).

    In Miami, they have already overbuilt the condos again. Developers were banking on more South American buyers, but we all hear and see what is going on in Venezuela, Brazil, etc. if you can afford a condo in downtown, you are looking at 400k+ for a 1 bedroom. Not many single people can afford that. If you’re a family, you’re looking at 600k+ for a small little condo, which in my opinion is nuts.

    Most people my age that I know, late-30’s, are hesitant to buy right now because they can’t afford it or because they bought high on the last cycle and are waiting for the down turn. Most of us would rather limit our losses by being in a rental for a while, instead of having to wait 7-10 years to see your property appreciate enough to get back above water.

    Do I think a small down turn will come, yes. Do I see a huge burst like last time, not really.

    If you ever need a “boots on the ground” opinion about the Miami market, don’t hesitate to ask.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 19:37h, 25 September Reply

      Thanks for your responses. Yes, NAR and all the real estate companies would benefit from a rosy, rising picture. For investors, the risk is high, but for those wanting to live in their homes and condos, it’s still a good idea to buy even with the prices. You can rent at sky high condo prices if you want, or put your rental payments into your own lasting equity. The charts show prices don’t come down a huge amount even during a painful recession. And as you said, things look okay for now. Should you go out and buy all of Johnny Depp’s condos on Sale in Los Angeles right now? Movie buffs might.

      Recently, in Toronto, there were complaints of too many condo developments, what Kevin O’Leary calls Shoe Boxes in the Sky. However, with immigration and a lack of land available in the Toronto area (phony green belt legislation), they got sold so the voices are quiet now. And those condos are about 40% of the price of houses. Turns out overbuilding wasn’t so bad. People are desperate for a place to live. Vancouver was the same and I’ve heard your city is similar. There are condos available in the $250 to $400k range and they’ll have their value in 10 years. You may know better, but it looks like they’re a good investment if you’re living in them.

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