Housing Market Predictions 2019

Housing Market Predictions 2019

Housing Market Outlook for 2019 2020

While the latest housing market stats show plunging home sales, the US housing market is looking ready to jump into higher gear this spring and summer. There won’t be a housing market crash, but listings are projected to keep growing through February and March. As prices fall, we’ll see buyers compete and begin the sales recovery.

S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 7 months.

While political turmoil, trade wars, and Fed chair folly may be scaring buyers (credit inquiries a well down in February), we all know the US economy will continue on its upward path. A relatively good jobs report, high GDP growth, and okay stock market paint an optimistic picture for home buyers.




A realistic market forecast is that after a temporary lull this winter and early spring, we’ll see sales begin to pick up again. Of recent, the Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa SarasotaSan Francisco, San Diego, New York, Boston, Seattle, Houston, Miami and Chicago housing markets have been quiet. Will the big markets in Florida and California bloom or will the smaller cities continue to draw workers, construction and home purchases?

This new update and projections for the 2019, 2020 US housing market offers key facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from top sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.



Although worries of a housing crash persist, there, a housing hungry Millennial middle class, and powerful economic performance are factors that outweigh housing crash indicators. As you’ll see in the charts, videos and opinions below this market is an interesting phase.




This United States Housing Report is the most widely read and thorough update/prediction for 2019/2020, and other housing and economic data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates!

Looking for specific predictions for major cities: Los Angeles, New York, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Diego, Miami, Boston, Bay Area, Tampa Sarasota and Houston. See forecasts for California housing, Hawaii housing market, and Florida housing markets.

NAR’s Report on Housing Activity

NAR reports a 6.4% fall in home sales during December.  Existing home prices fell $3700 to $253,600  from November 2018. The Midwest region saw sales fall 11.2% while the West saw a drop of only 1.9%.  Prices in the Northeast had an 8.2% jump over last year while homes in west rose only by .2%.

Across the US, in December, home sales fell to 377,000 units compared to 427,000 Dec 2017. For 2018, existing home sales fell to 5,340,000 units from 2017’s 5,510,000 units sold. Single-family home sales dropped 10.1% last year, and was worse in the West, down 14.1% over last year.  Prices of detached homes fell $9,400 from last year.

Existing condominium and co-op sales plunged in December, down 80,000 units while prices rose $3,000. Condo prices rose 4% in the south, and fell 2.5% in the west. Oddly, condo inventory fell 9.8% in December to 187,000 units which is still 14,000 more than December of 2017.

The stats suggest that despite big sales drops and inventory gains, prices are stable. December’s price increases were the 82nd straight month of rises.




2019 Mortgage Forecast

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.64% in December from 4.87% in November. That’s up from 3.99% in 2017. You can buy a 15 year fixed rate mortgage at 3.84% and that rate is dropping.

However, the Fed’s recent unprecedented pause in raising rates and moderate hike announcements is suggesting it is giving up on big rate increases.  The Fed probably believes the Democrats could throttle Trump’s big machine and begin a recession in 2020.

Mortgage applications dropped 5% from one year ago according to the National Banker’s Association, and credit inquiries dropped as well. It seems buyers are sitting on the fence right now, but latent demand could show up by June.

15 Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (courtesy of Longforecast.com)

Month % Low-High Closing Rate Mo,% Total,%
2019
February 3.72-4.07 3.84 0.0% 0.0%
March 3.68-3.90 3.79 -1.3% -1.3%
April 3.63-3.85 3.74 -1.3% -2.6%
May 3.68-3.90 3.79 1.3% -1.3%
June 3.75-3.99 3.87 2.1% 0.8%
July 3.84-4.08 3.96 2.3% 3.1%
August 3.96-4.22 4.10 3.5% 6.8%
September 4.10-4.36 4.23 3.2% 10.2%
October 4.06-4.32 4.19 -0.9% 9.1%
November 4.04-4.30 4.17 -0.5% 8.6%
December 4.03-4.27 4.15 -0.5% 8.1%
2020
January 4.05-4.31 4.18 0.7% 8.9%
February 4.18-4.48 4.35 4.1% 13.3%
March 4.14-4.40 4.27 -1.8% 11.2%
April 4.27-4.59 4.46 4.4% 16.1%
May 4.46-4.87 4.73 6.1% 23.2%
June 4.69-4.99 4.84 2.3% 26.0%
July 4.76-5.06 4.91 1.4% 27.9%
August 4.91-5.24 5.09 3.7% 32.6%
September 5.03-5.35 5.19 2.0% 35.2%
October 4.99-5.29 5.14 -1.0% 33.9%
November 4.93-5.23 5.08 -1.2% 32.3%
December 4.98-5.28 5.13 1.0% 33.6%

Regional Sales Breakdown Detached Homes courtesy of NAR




Given the government shutdown, slowing GDP and employment numbers in January, it’s not surprising to see the slide in housing sales. Lawrence Yun suggests interest rates are behind diminished demand. That might be as lower income buyers would be struggling to buy at current prices. If prices slide another 10%, and buyers have more downpayment funds, we’ll begin to see those latent sales.

The democrats are promising to dry up all stimulus money and block President Trump. This conflict is critical to discouraging housing demand and threaten an economic recession.

Screen Capture courtesy of NARAs this graphic shows, housing supply is dropping fast. Total housing inventory at the end of November slowed to 1.74 million units, down from 1.85 million existing homes available for sale in October. The western cities and states in particular saw less demand, perhaps from migration changes, high interest rates, and worries over international trade.

Screen Capture courtesy of Attomdata Solutions

Despite poor sales across the nation, particularly in California, Attom Data reports homes are becoming even less affordable (prices outpace wages). Employment and wages are better in California, yet prices are still out of reach for most.




 Median Home Prices

S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 7 months. And average monthly mortgage payments could rise from $912 last fall to $994 this September 2019.

In fact, Zillow reports the average price of US resale homes in October at $222,000. Zillow forecasts continued upward pressure on sales prices, rising $12,000 (6.4%) more by late 2019.  It seems it would take a major economic shock or failure to slow the house price trend and crash the housing markets.


Last month NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz: “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

NAHB’s housing-market index dropped 8 points to a reading of 60 in November, well below economist’s expectations. Despite a positive economic forecast, and strong rental price growth and stock market outlooks, it is rising mortgage rates and political uncertainty that is casting gloom over the 2019 period for housing.




Most expensive cities to buy a home?  San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Cities with the worst negative equity include Chicago, Las Vegas, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, and Memphis. San Jose, Honolulu, and San Francisco lead the way in positive equity. See the California housing market predictions, Florida housing predictions , Illinois housing market and New York housing predictions in more detail.

 

Here’s a look at rank and prices for the top Metros for July. The high DOM reveal that prices are way out of what most buyers could afford, so they sit longer:

City Nielsen Rank Median Listing Price Median Listing Price M/M Median Listing Price Y/Y Days on Market
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 1 $519050 -0.2% 8.2% 61
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 2 $834050 -1.6% 4.4% 40
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 3 $324950 -1.0% 4.9% 48
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4 $349950 -2.3% 0.0% 38
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5 $328025 -1.5% 3.1% 52
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6 $299950 0.0% 3.5% 62
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 7 $499950 -2.9% -4.8% 46
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 8 $506050 -1.3% 1.2% 76
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 9 $338550 -1.5% 12.7% 46
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 10 $534050 -2.7% 4.7% 44
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 11 $1000015 -9.6% 5.5% 30
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 12 $260050 -1.9% 6.2% 38
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 13 $350050 -2.4% 6.1% 45
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 14 $599050 -0.7% 14.1% 31
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 15 $370040 -1.3% 5.7% 38
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 16 $399950 -0.3% 5.2% 46
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 17 $285050 -1.2% 1.8% 58
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 18 $775020 -1.2% 1.0% 37
St. Louis, MO-IL 19 $214950 -0.1% 7.5% 51
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 20 $498045 -0.4% -8.2% 34
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 21 $420050 0.0% 2.4% 51
Pittsburgh, PA 22 $174950 -0.1% 2.9% 57
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 23 $495050 -1.0% 3.2% 38
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 24 $350050 -2.8% 1.5% 54
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 25 $339050 -1.0% 3.5% 60
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 26 $185484 -1.1% 9.1% 51
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 27 $295020 -0.3% 2.0% 51
Cincinnati, OH 28 $265050 -1.6% 10.5% 41
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA 29 $469050 -2.0% 0.3% 37

Above stats courtesy of NAR

What’s Ahead for 2019/2020?

The fall elections and 2020 Presidential elections are on people’s minds. Everyone’s eager to buy or sell at the right time and a Trump defeat could send both US stock markets and housing markets crashing.  The best guess is that Donald Trump will win narrowly in 2020 and keep protecting fragile US business startups.

However, new housing construction starts fell by 12% in June and multifamily dropped significantly.  Post free trade adjustments, higher mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty will reduce new home building. Lumber prices have dropped fast, however home prices are predicted to keeping rising. Good news for sellers.

Housing Market Synopsis: The US real estate market continues to grow with rising prices, new construction, supported by a strengthening domestic economy. President Trump as plenty of options to boost the economic forecast and city housing markets from California to Texas to Florida. It is a sellers market across the country, with persistent, buyer demand, despite gloomy housing crash forecasts for the last 4 years which missed the mark.

Check recent house prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Sacramento, Seattle, Houston, Miami, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Orlando/Tampa.

 




NAR Predicts Prices Will Rise Another 5% in 2019

According to new data released by NAR, home prices are still rising although a lack of listings are suppressing sales. It’s been 35 straight months of declines in homes for sale.

Sellers are demanding record prices while first time buyers can’t afford them or the prices of new housing stock being built. On a more positive note is growing listings and a booming US economy. That’s generated price rise forecasts of over 5% this year, or twice that of inflation and wage growth.

S&P Dow Jones Indices Managing Director David Blitzer says. “Home prices are up 54%, or 40% excluding inflation, since they bottomed in 2012. Reduced affordability is slowing sales of both new and existing single-family homes.”

With home prices and mortgage rates on the rise perhaps to 5% by end of 2019, find out your could be paying: future mortage rates. Shop for the lowest mortgage rate now.

 

Please do Share the US Housing Report and Forecast on Linkedin or Facebook!

 

Further Information in this updated Report and Housing forecast:

  1. Market update
  2. Hottest cities to buy
  3. NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
  4. Home price update and predictions
  5. US economic outlook – Tradingeconomics data
  6. Urban Land Institute panel discussion Video
  7. Freddie Mac Forecasts
  8. Jobs report and forecast
  9. Interest rates and mortgage rates
  10. Apartment rental prices and forecast

 

Is there going to be a housing crash in 2019? Is this the best time to buy a home?

The dwindling numbers of homes for sale are expected to push prices upward in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Diego, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas,  Seattle, New York and Boston and in Florida. It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.

 

Please do Share this News Update with your friends and colleagues on Linkedin, Facebook and Instagram.

 

It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who wonder if this is the best time to buy a home or condo in 2019 as home prices and mortgage rates rise.




New Home Construction

Dodge Data says there will be a modest 3% drop in single family housing starts to 815,000.

Buying or investing? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.

 

 

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What’s Driving the California Housing Market?

Strong demand from an eager demographic and economy is clashing with local resident NIMBYism to create a volatile market along with homelessness. See the California housing report.

Some cities will have their issues, however San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Philadelphia, Las Vegas and Phoenix look very good right now

Should I Buy A Home in 2019?

The question for many readers is “should I buy a home in 2019?” This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy if you can find a home. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.

Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing market are positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.

Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets:  Sacramento Housing MarketSan Francisco Housing Market |  Boston Real Estate Market 2019 | Florida Housing Forecast 2019 | Miami Housing Market |  Los Angeles Real Estate Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast |  Philadelphia Real Estate MarketSeattle Housing Report

 

US Rental Market Update

As Zillow reports apartment rents rose 1.3% over the last year, and yet have levelled off this summer.  Rentcafe offers different numbers for each rental type.

Bedroom Type Average Rent Change M-o-M Change Y-o-Y
Studio $1,259 0.20% 2.5%
1 Bed $1,225 0.10% 3.4%
2 Beds $1,408 0.10% 3.5%
3 Beds $1,644 0.20% 3.2%

National Rental Housing Data Courtesy of Rentcafe.com

This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).

Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.

Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.

NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market

Housing Indicator Realtor.com® 
Home price appreciation 3.2% increase
Mortgage rate Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end
Existing home sales 2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing
Housing starts 3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses
New home sales Growth of 7%
Home ownership rate Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally

 

 

Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the US economy, low jobless rate, wage growth, investment, strong dollar, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.

Housing Shortages are Easing a Little

Corelogic forecasted 2018’s home prices would grow 4.3% by the end of this month.  NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices for full year 2018. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are still the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.

The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’s tumbled. Listings fell dramatically in central California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.

Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.

The US Economy 2018/2019

These stats from Trading Economics show positive US economic fundamentals that will drive growth in the housing market, and in turn will bolster the economy, since new household consumer spending and housing investment is a key driver of the economy.

As President Trumps Tax cuts wind down, the Fed will still raise interest rates twice in 2019. It’s just one of the issues sparking stock market volatility.  Is it enough to scuttle optimistic stock market predictions? No one is quite sure if its a crash or continued booming cycle.

Home prices should begin rising again this late spring in FloridaNew York , Boston, San DiegoHouston, MiamiSeattle, Bay Area and the rest of  overheated California.

Buyers and sellers will enjoy reading the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture!

Scroll down to see the stats, video, and charts on the strongest cities where you might buy or invest. And when is the best time to buy a house?

NAR Housing Report November 2018

Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party

Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.

Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers,  all of whom are looking for houses for sale.

New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018

New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.

The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Philadelphia, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.

The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.

Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies

Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise.  With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale.

Mortgage Rates on the Rise

15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.

Houses For Sale – Should You Buy or Sell in 2018?

The forecasts and predictions for housing markets in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, New York, Misami, Houston, Seattle, and San Diego etc. all suggest better times ahead. Will the China housing market crash result from American revival?

See the post on the best cities to invest in real estate. Where can you find houses for sale with the best upside potential as a high return property investment?

Housing Expert’s Predictions and a Lot More

Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac.  The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.




Hottest Real Estate Markets in April 2018

Hottest Cities for Investment Value

This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.

Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil and gasoline prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.

Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.

Read on to learn more about the economic fundamentals that support your purchase of a home in 2019:

Buying and Selling — Is This the Right Time to buy a Home?

Your asking if this is the right time to buy a home, or to sell your home? Speculation of a housing crash in Miami, State of FloridaLos Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, San Diego, San Jose, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets has more people listing their house or condo. Yet, the market is healthy, so there’s no emergency. Prices are stable so you won’t get much more by waiting.

Check out these other posts for homebuyers, investors, and realtors:

How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | Best Time to Buy a House

What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2019, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.

Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miami, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco.  The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at.  Seattle, Denver, Boston, South Florida, Palm Beach, Philadelphia and New York  have a promising outlook too.

Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics

These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.

Sharing is Good for your Social Health! 

Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!

Expert Predictions – US Housing 

1.  Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.

These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%.  — BusinessWire

2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.

Can you save $1700 on Auto Insurance in one year? How about $10,000 in 6 years? That’s a lot of cash. Find out and compare auto insurance quotes.

If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crashHouse Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.

US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024

According to BLS the job outlook is positive, despite last months slowing growth, wages are rising slightly. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.

 

National Employment Growth Employment Growth Predictions, 2014–24 Median annual wage, 2014
2014 2024 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 150,539,000 160,328,000 9,788,900 6.5 $35,540

 

US Housing Starts to 2024

 

This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.

Housing Starts and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts 928 1,001 1,107 1,177 1,204 1,246 1,299
Single Family 620 647 712 784 842 900 962
Multifamily 308 355 395 393 362 346 337
New Single Family Sales 430 440 503 561 610 647 693
Existing Single-Family Home Sales 4,475 4,338 4,627 4,828 4,978 5,029 5,119
Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate 0.13% 0.13% 0.38% 0.63% 1.13% 1.88% 2.38%
90 day T Bill Rate 0.06% 0.03% 0.05% 0.32% 0.96% 1.71% 2.22%
Treasury Yields:
One Year Maturity 0.13% 0.12% 0.32% 0.61% 1.20% 2.41% 2.70%
Ten Year Maturity 2.35% 2.54% 2.14% 1.84% 2.38% 2.82% 3.22%
Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages 3.98% 4.17% 3.85% 3.65% 4.10% 4.54% 4.96%
ARMs 2.88% 3.17% 2.94% 2.87% 3.18% 3.62% 4.04%
Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.26% 3.51% 4.15% 4.98% 5.48%
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual

Chart stats courtesy of Nahb.com

Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.




Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.

Apartment Rental Forecast

Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.  See more on the rental housing market.

Chart courtesy of RealPage

Cities with the most apartment construction include Dallas, Houston and Austin, reflecting Texas strong recovery. For more information, see this post on the best cities to buy real estate and best cities to live in and with the best job outlook.

There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US real estate market for 4 more years.

What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?

What’s the forecast and trends for the real estate sales in your region? If you’re in Vancouver, Toronto, Miami Fort Lauderdale, San Diego, San Francisco, Atlanta, Tampa, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear.

Share this post on Facebook, Twitter, or Linkedin. It’s good to share!!

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Housing Market Predictions 2019

Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including New YorkLos Angeles,  Seattle, Chicago, Boston, and across the cities of Florida and California.

12 Comments
  • Kara
    Posted at 05:08h, 15 August Reply

    There is no way that Trump can truly help the market with out making more promises that he will pull out like most of his deals that were to good to be true. We will have more housing issues before bubble burst. What about the middle class that are trying to get back on their feet? The younger generation has seen there parents lose jobs and homes. Younger people save more money and rather spend their money on living life instead of being trapped in a 30 year mortgage. Don’t get me wrong they will purchase homes but they will go for a 15 year mortgage or go tiny living. This generation are all too aware that a six figure income is like living on 80k-75k or less. Especially, if they are married. Let’s not forget they have more student loans that tremendously increase their debt to income ratio. Their average income is less than 45k for with degrees. Also, recent survey was done on those who made over 100k and ask if the could come up in with $3000 in 30 days. Most didn’t have the cash on readily available without tapping into other resources. The reason there is scarity in homes available for sales is because the ones that are able to keep their homes need more equity to purchase a more over priced home. My point is banks, mortgage lenders and local government are the ones that control the market not Presidents.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 21:53h, 15 August Reply

      Kara, we’ll certainly see whether Trump will or can keep his word. It seems to me that income polarization became a problem along with global free trade. If free trade becomes fair trade as Trump is suggesting, that might be a way to bring back the middle class. Hillary Clinton is said to be the “status quo candidate” so she won’t be doing anything about the China trade deficit. This president will have some effect on things I’m pretty sure. He’s generating a lot of resistance though and who knows, OPEC may jam up the price of oil just they see it as a good time to cripple the US. So many variables! Yes the banks and local governments can be a problem such as in LA where the California Environmental Quality Act is preventing new home building leading to sky high prices of homes.

  • Jeff
    Posted at 13:26h, 28 August Reply

    At a pathetic growth rate of 1.1% of the US Economy, the election of Hillary Clinton will continue this stagnant trend and perhaps cause deterioration of even THAT rate.

    Our economy is poised to explode with pent-up demand. The current “status quo” president has countered every growth opportunity with domestic regulation and debt / deficit load.

    Unless the power of our own economic engine domestically is unleashed, the pressure of holding down home sales and mortgage loans will continue its steady trend of stagnation or decline over the longrun.

    There are many leading economic indicators and depending on political party affiliation, one can cherry pick and boast either positive or negative effects, to their storyline.

    Hoever, the aggregate effect of long term indicator trends is what really counts.

    I see a dismal Hillary Clinton economy, plagued, burdened, and compounded by the damage Barack Obama has done to it.

    I see a robust economy in most industry sectors ready to go at the starting gate with a Donald Trump presidency, with this man at the helm who knows how to leverage trade deals internationally and bring a ROI on our US based assets, with growth opportunities through tax incentives, vis a vis, a community organizer and his successor who have constantly sucked the life out of their American Host….. you.

    Until, and once the uncertainty is reduced, THEN we can get back to a cyclic economy with statistical smoothing that offers better predictions of our future.

    Until then, home prices and their sellers, bank appraisals, and buyers will suffer.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 23:02h, 29 August Reply

      Thanks Jeff. I don’t know about cyclical economies. I always get sea sick. I think Trump will win, but his fanaticism is a worrying characteristic that turns voters off. The only one who can defeat Trump, is Donald Trump. He needs to calm down as the victory is his already. If he can cut the China trade deficit in half, it would be the best economic decision the US has made in a long time. He wants to cut red tape and that could free up real estate developers and cause prices to drop. Then all the millennials will get to buy a home.

  • Miami Broker
    Posted at 16:23h, 25 September Reply

    Gord- to be honest, and not to rain on the parade, I don’t foresee these prices holding up as NAR likes to predict. I’ve been a Realtor for the last 15 years, started in residential but, over the last 10 years, Ive found a niche in one of the commercial real estate sectors.

    NAR always has to be optimistic. If they weren’t, people would question their choice to buy a home, which means less realtors, then less fees for NAR. (Don’t get me wrong, they do put out some good data).

    In Miami, they have already overbuilt the condos again. Developers were banking on more South American buyers, but we all hear and see what is going on in Venezuela, Brazil, etc. if you can afford a condo in downtown, you are looking at 400k+ for a 1 bedroom. Not many single people can afford that. If you’re a family, you’re looking at 600k+ for a small little condo, which in my opinion is nuts.

    Most people my age that I know, late-30’s, are hesitant to buy right now because they can’t afford it or because they bought high on the last cycle and are waiting for the down turn. Most of us would rather limit our losses by being in a rental for a while, instead of having to wait 7-10 years to see your property appreciate enough to get back above water.

    Do I think a small down turn will come, yes. Do I see a huge burst like last time, not really.

    If you ever need a “boots on the ground” opinion about the Miami market, don’t hesitate to ask.

    • Gord Collins
      Posted at 19:37h, 25 September Reply

      Thanks for your responses. Yes, NAR and all the real estate companies would benefit from a rosy, rising picture. For investors, the risk is high, but for those wanting to live in their homes and condos, it’s still a good idea to buy even with the prices. You can rent at sky high condo prices if you want, or put your rental payments into your own lasting equity. The charts show prices don’t come down a huge amount even during a painful recession. And as you said, things look okay for now. Should you go out and buy all of Johnny Depp’s condos on Sale in Los Angeles right now? Movie buffs might.

      Recently, in Toronto, there were complaints of too many condo developments, what Kevin O’Leary calls Shoe Boxes in the Sky. However, with immigration and a lack of land available in the Toronto area (phony green belt legislation), they got sold so the voices are quiet now. And those condos are about 40% of the price of houses. Turns out overbuilding wasn’t so bad. People are desperate for a place to live. Vancouver was the same and I’ve heard your city is similar. There are condos available in the $250 to $400k range and they’ll have their value in 10 years. You may know better, but it looks like they’re a good investment if you’re living in them.

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  • Dale Chapman
    Posted at 22:04h, 16 December Reply

    I have to agree with the comments of Miami Broker. It appears that real estate in general is on the verge of experiencing a correction. I was a broker in East Tennessee when the great recession occurred in 2008-2009. I read and shared the projections from Lawrence Yun. Chief Economist at NAR because he was calling for a “soft landing”. SEVEN million foreclosures in 2008-2009 shot that forecast. So forgive my anxiety when he feels comfortable about today’s values because of low interest rates. It may be time to place my house on the market. Zillow has a interesting survey of 100 economist and over half predict a housing crash in 2020 with 22% predicting a crash in the 1st quarter of 2020.

  • Paula Smith
    Posted at 10:56h, 20 December Reply

    Hopefully a market correction will be slow and steady. I’ve been noticing the trends nationwide that we seem to be stabilizing. I’m optimistic to a more “normal” market and hoping that the “normal” will maintain its path. I do expect prices to dip a bit, as more sellers become motivated to get ahead of the rising competition, but I do feel like overall it will remain stable.

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