Miami FL Housing Predictions – South Florida Housing Market

Miami FL Housing Predictions – South Florida Housing Market

Miami Real Estate Forecast

The US housing market outlook for 2020 is improving and the outlook for the Miami Dade County market is a little healthier in June’s real estate sales report reveals. Sales, listings and prices all climbed as the pandemic shutdown eased.

Too many housing market predictions are based on 3 month moving averages which doesn’t provide an accurate picture of sales activity right now, and a rosier forecast for the rest of 2020.  Given the Covid 19 outbreak in the Miami region, it does dampen hopes for the embattled tourism industry and foreign buyer interest may have been subdued because of that.  Miami Realtors suggest the worst may be behind us.

 

Is the Miami Housing Market Overpriced?

With the presidential election coming, a falling US dollar, extra stimulus money, a potential Corona Virus vaccine, and continued reopening of business in 2020, we’d have to predict a more promising outlook for the housing market.

Should you invest in Florida real estate?  Many Americans are investigating a move to Florida and buy a home or condo in the Miami region?  With prices so reasonable in comparison with other cities, and the amazing Florida lifestyle, combined with more listings, along with low mortgage rates, this probably is the right time to buy.

A recent study by Florida Atlantic University suggests that Miami Dade County and Broward County real estate might be overpriced as much as 20%.

 

The conclusion evolves from decreased home buying demand vs large rises in home prices in the south Florida and Miami housing market region.  But compared to cities in the Northeast, home prices here are very reasonable.  It should be pointed out that Florida real estate is even more attractive given the better tax laws here and a new wave of work at home workers is creating a national wave of migration.

Miami Realtors June Home Sales Report

Miami Realtors forecast:  Miami Realtors reports in its June stats release an expected increase in sales resulting from falling mortgage rates, rising consumer confidence and new demand from high earners in tax-burdened states. There has been an interest in Florida real estate during the pandemic and with a falling US dollar it might be reasonable to see home sales rise.

Miami Realtors reported a 6.1% YoY growth in sales overall. In the Miami single detached house market, sales decreased 7.7% vs 12 months ago, and Miami condo sales fell 4.4%. However, year to data, home sales are only down 1% vs same period in 2019.

Total sales volume in June fell .05 billion dollars to $1.13 billion. Condo sales volume also decreased 15.4% to 467.5 million, a drop of $84.7 million.

Miami Dade County Home Prices

Single detached houses in Miami Dade County jumped 4.2% in June to an average price of $370,000. Single detached houses have risen in price for 91 consecutive months. Condo prices jumped 4.2%, up $10,000, to a new price of $250,000.

Compared to condo prices in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Washington, Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, and other cities, the price of condominiums in Miami Dade is quite a bargain.

What is slowing sales now is the Covid 19 pandemic which is not being contained well at all across the state of Florida, but in particular in south Florida.

6.6% of close sales were distressed sales, a rise of .3% in June. Total Miami distressed sales fell 2.4%. Short sale transactions fell 37.2% YoY.

Median time to sale for condos dropped 4.1% to 74 days and the median price of original listing price for houses was 95.6 while for Miami condos, it was 93.8%.

Inventory of single detached houses for sale grew 6.6% during June, to 6,523 units, and condo inventory grew 1.4% to 15,269 units for sale.

Months of supply for houses grew 3.3% to 6.2 months of supply while condos hit a 13.4 months of supply level.
Total active listings rose 2.9% YoY to 22,111 units. New listings of condos fell 12% to 1980 units.

New pending sales for Broward single-family homes rose in June (21.2% year-over-year) to 2,095 units. This number bodes well for predicting higher sales in July given higher demand, low mortgage rates and increasing listings.

July’s sales numbers will be subdued because of the Covid 19 breakout and trend to shutting down businesses to control the pandemic in Miami.

Migrating buyers from other states and real estate investors are finding big value in buying Florida real estate. See the Housing Market in Florida report.

Florida Realtors Miami Fort Lauderdale Report

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

Zillow’s home price timeline chart shows the dip in prices this year and an expectation of continued lower prices. Yet as we’ve seen, home prices are rising.  Many of the housing market forecasts made may be emphasizing too many negative factors and not adjusting for political and economic adjustments to the pandemic.

Screenshot courtesy of Zillow.

The trend nationwide of course is to rising house prices due to constrained availability. The latest US housing report shows consistent strength in all major housing markets. San Francisco, the Bay Area and New York have lead the way with strong rises. Miami, Florida placed 9th in prices in the US, according to a report from Zillow.

The Miami housing market for 2019 buyer profile are very similar to what you’ll see in the Boca Raton South Florida real estate market forecast.  Recent events have affected foreign interest.

The biggest event here to affect buyers, and therefore prices, is Hurricane Irma, and several other hurricanes that passed through.

There was a lot of doom and gloom talk about the hurricane’s wiping out the South Florida economy, but it looks like they’ve already been a boon to it.  Perhaps money has been diverted from buying new and resale condos to reconstruction of homes in the greater Miami area?

 

Home Sales Prices Levelling Off

Home prices have consistently risen over the past year. The momentum look strong. Screen capture courtesy of Miamirealtors.com

On the other hand, a big decrease in cash sales show a traditional type of buyer is missing from the market right now.

Miami – Good Time to Buy?

Is this a buyers market?  2+ bedroom condos are decreasing in price and rents have fallen 1.5% in Miami. Contrast this with condo price increases of 8% to 9% in Washington DC, San Jose, and 13% in Denver Colorado and you have some perspective. Prices in Honolulu, Houston, and Chicago have plunged in comparison.

The real estate district of Miami includes the communties of Coral Gable, Cutler Bay, Doral, Homestead, Brickell, Medley, Miami Springs, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrsst, and Sweetwater. It doesn’t not include Fort Lauderdale which is a separate MLS board.

Check out the neighborhood profiles on Neighborhood Scout. They include price appreciation, demographics, and more for Miami’s best neighborhoods and all the districts.  Very helpful.

Looking to buy a condo or house in the Miami area? The typical buyer of homes in this region come from around the world, from New York and Toronto, to Dallas and Houston, to Dubai, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, Sao Palo, Rio De Janeiro, to London UK. A good portion of buyers emanate from Venezuela, Columbia, Argentina, Brazil and Canada. Colombia consumers are most interested in Miami real estate this fall.

According to Miami Realtors.com, interest in Miami is strongest from buyers in

  1. Charlotte, NC
  2. New York City, NY
  3. Atlanta, GA
  4. Chicago, IL
  5. Los Angeles, CA
  6. Houston, TX
  7. Dallas, TX
  8. Auburn, VA
  9. Boston, MA
  10. Simi Valley, CA

NAR reports that almost 40% of residential property is purchased by foreign buyers.

Buyers Forecast 2019: The Miami’s Herald’s buyer survey revealed the buyers forecast that residential home values will fare over the next 12 months, 36% believe they’ll rise, a third think prices will remain flat while 21% believe they will depreciate.

You can discover more about Buying in Miami via the Buyer’s Survey from Miami Herald

Graphic courtesy of the Miami Herald

The Miami Herald undertook an informative survey of buyer attitudes and the opinions definitely point to the buy side.

Miami’s beauty, incredible climate, business opportunities and proximity to Europe and the Caribbean make it a key position in International business and trade. With condo prices subdued currently, now may be the time to pick up a bargain before prices rocket again.

Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Tampa, Charlotte, Orlando, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu,  San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, PhiladelphiaSacramento, Washington, Atlanta, Myrtle Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Minneapolis, St Paul, Madison, Sioux City, Rapid City, Fargo, Green Bay, Rockford, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Austin, San Antonio, Oceanside, Riverside, Carlsbad, Las Vegas, Colorado Springs, Reno, and Charleston. For data on Canadian cities, see the Toronto housing report, and  Vancouver housing report.

Bookmark this post for future updates.

Will There be a Florida Housing Crash? | Florida Real Estate Market | Miami Housing Market | Tampa Real Estate Market | Mortgage Rates Low | Mortgage RefinancingWhen is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Florida? | Where Can I Find a Good Florida Realtor? | Are Florida House Prices Going to Fall? | Will Prices Drop in California? | Will Mortgage Rates Drop? |  Forecast for the 2020 Housing Market? | Are we in a Housing Bubble?

Housing Market Forecast – copyright Gord Collins

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