S&P 500 Forecast

As perhaps the best performance indicator of large-cap US equities., the S&P is regarded as the “real stock market” by many investors.  Quite a few made a fortune investing in S&P listed stocks during the bull run. This year, high interest rates a knocked the wind of the index.

Are S&P stocks the best of breed regardless of the stock market forecast? Or will you find good picks on the Dow Jones, NASDAQ or Russell?   Inflation is high and government is obsessed with controlling inflation, and inflation is set to be high for some time ahead.

The S&P 500 enjoyed a phenomenal bull run, much of that in the last few years due to US stimulus spending. But now in the era of Fed balance sheet tightening, interest rate rises, high oil prices, rising interest rates and a potential small business and housing market collapse, the index has fallen 22% in 2022.

Investors wonder if there are still investible stocks to buy.  Many wait for the Fed to stop raising rates to signal the buy the stock market dip might be ending.  When will the S&P rise again?

S&P 500 Index.
S&P 500 Index. Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Predictions for the S&P

On Friday, Goldman Sachs reduced its end-of-year target price for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,300.  On the other side, JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 spiking to 4,800 by the end of 2022. They believe the Fed won’t continue fighting inflation and this will excite investors.  Interestingly, JP Morgan has posed arguments for a potential $380 a barrel for oil, should crude production be shutdown or shutout of markets.

Bank of America is predicting a ‘mild recession,’ and has cut their S&P 500 outlook to 3,600 points, not far from its current 3692.  It’s more likely, given rising rates and slowing business spending, that it will go below 3500.

S&P Forecast by year/month.
S&P Forecast by year/month. Screenshot courtesy of forecasts.org.

Labor is 40% of S&P 500 expenses so today’s wage rises and low jobless claims tell us relief may be far off.  In a telling point, BofA analysts had previously said “Typically, more than 70% of these signposts have been triggered before the market bottomed. Currently, only 18% of these signposts are triggered.”  That would suggest we haven’t seen the bottom of the market yet and the Dow, S&P and especially NASDAQ are in for some surprises.

Michael Kantrowitz of Pipe Sandler has revised his earlier predictions, saying “with earnings expectations likely souring along with a weakening economy, a bottom won’t form for this bear market until later next year.”

Bloomberg reports increasing calls for recessionary activity but no stock market crash.

For the last 6 months, S&P stocks have shown in the red. Experts are divided on the stock market ranging from stock market crash predictions to solid earnings ahead? Which do you feel is legitimate?

Some investment advisors have suggested buying a basket of S&P stocks or finding specific value stocks that will outperform the S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ.   Let’s take a closer look at which S&P stocks are improving.

Hottest S&P Stocks September 2022

Today’s chart shows performance of late is very weak with just a handful of companies showing positive performance.  Buying individual winners is unlikely, however keeping an eye on those that will perfore much better in 2024 and the 5 year picture is a good goal.

Hottest S&P Stocks September 2022
Hottest S&P Stocks September 2022. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

See more on signals of stocks to sell, and on the best stock picks of 2021.  Which post pandemic stocks are best and check out the best stocks on the Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes.

For newbie self-directed investors, you can learn learn more about the S&P below and be introduced to the listed stocks below. You’re looking for the best performing S&P 500 stocks to invest in and you’ll find them here too. In fact, you’ll discover that certain stocks on the S&P 600 are actually outperformers.

Last year, some forecast modellers actually had the S&P 500 predictions seeing heights of 6,000. One expert whom most people ridiculed two years ago said it would hit the unrealistic price of 3500. Well it hit 4,162.

Today, history showed everyone what they should have expected. When you pour $5 trillion into an economy recklessly, it will come back to haunt. With that surge of liquidity still evident (consumers are spending), there is little way that high inflation will cease.  With the Fed pushing rates up, a recession is the outlook and that will push the S&P down further this year and into next.

The calls for a bull market forecast have a weak case. Investor’s will have to research and find only the best of the S&P stocks, and there might not be many.

S&P Big Losers of Recent

Barchart gives us a good look stocks that are plummeting and show big downside risk. Retail, travel, among a host of companies we’re used to seeing soar. With President Biden making scary nuclear deals with Iran to get the price of oil down and China buying coal and Russian oil, Chinese corporations will find their labor situation better, with lower energy prices and improved competitiveness on world markets.  US companies with a very high US dollar will find it tough to compete.

The key to this is oil production is at maximum unless US oil production is rekindled, and the Biden camp has vowed solemnly to stop them.  With the US dollar rising, and China imports flowing into the US, US companies are in tough for the rest of this year and into 2022, until the GOP can act to stop the bleeding.

S&P worst performing stocks.
S&P worst performing stocks. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

The S&P, DOW have shown moderate volatility and similar returns while the NASDAQ has suffered much more ups and downs, which might appeal to day stock traders.   Investors are uncertain right now and are reviewing forecasts and predictions for today, next week, next month and 6 months.

Safe Investing in the S&P 100

Companies listed in the S&P 100 such as Pfizer, Walgreens, Coca Cola, Apple, Pepsi, Chevron and GE look pretty good headed into 2022. Check them out further on Barchart.com and for more on the S&P 100 forecast.

Top performers on S&P100 (as of September 17, 2022)

S&P 100 best stocks.
S&P 100 best stocks. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

Introducing the S&P 600


This chart below reveals the S&P 600 has performed the best. Find out which S&P 600 stocks have been pushing its price performance in the last 6 months.

Here are the best performers of the S&P 600 stocks as of Sept 26, 2022.

S&P 600 top performing stocks.
S&P 600 top performing stocks. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

What is the S&P 500?

What is the S&P index?  The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, is a weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies (large-cap U.S. equities). The index has a 69.0% trailing 1-year total return. It’s a measure of how well the top US corporations are doing. It can be contrasted with the Russell Index which is a measure of small to medium-sized companies. The Russell Index has actually performed well in 2020, and warrants a good look for investing.  Check the Dow forecast and the NASDAQ Forecast too.

Stocks in the S&P 500 include Google Alphabet, Amazon, American Airlines, Facebook, Apple, McDonalds, NASDAQ, Nike, Delta Airlines, Sherwin Williams, Netflix and other high valuation companies. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google — the FAANG stocks — now make up more than 11% of the S&P 500 index.

The S&P delisted Facebook as an ethical company, and we wonder if Google is next, having been convicted in Europe of anti-trust violations, and preparing to defend a US FTC investigation.

Best S&P Sectors This Year

Best S&P 500 Sectors.
Best S&P Sectors. Screenshot courtesy of Tradingview

S&P 500 Forecast 2022, 2023

S&P 500 Forecast. Screenshot courtesy of Yardeni.com

Take a further look at the US Economic forecast, housing market forecast, oil price forecast and the Forecast for the Stock Market including Stock Market Predictions for Tomorrow , the 6 Month Forecast and 3 Month Forecast along with opinions of an impending Stock Market Crash.

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