Stock Market News

Update, Trends, Forecasts 2019 2020

This lengthy bull run in the stock markets has made a lot of investors and consultants look like geniuses.

As we enter the fall season, we’ll see more volatility, the kind that brings everybody back down to earth. There’s little doubt we’ll see some major corrections as President Trump tries to defend the US, but gets snowed in by the Dems and China.

The NASDAQ, DOW JONES, S&P, Russell Index and TSX are producing excellent returns and they just don’t seem to stop. As more China tariffs take hold, US companies soar, and surprisingly, the global slowdown isn’t what was expected.

President Trump will likely not bow to the Chinese or the Multinationals who prefer to make things in Asia. The added risk to the markets is that the China economy could suffer a major crash.

China’s GDP, exports, employment picture, and more are falling and at some point (defaults) a decision by investors to abandon China will bring the biggest news story of 2020.

A trump win in the 2020 presidential election would be the final nail in China’s coffin.

US stock markets rose in the absence of China trade and its questionable that free trade would bring sustainable benefits to the United States markets. By eliminating import tariffs, US companies would suffer a setback which could send the markets downward.  With trade deficits and debt returning, the long term outlook gets cloudy.

Current pro-China trends would benefit Google, Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook, yet would negatively affect small business.

As you can see in the stock market forecast report, there is little risk of a crash in 2019/2020. The fear for US business owners is about a Trump loss in the 2020 elections.

If the positive market factors continue, the talk might turn to the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 reaching record levels.

Netflix Reports 3rd Quarter Results

Netflix reported 3rd quarter earnings after hours. Earnings per share rose ($147), and International subscribers grew. Yet US streaming subscriptions rose only 517,000 which missed its estimates of 800,000+.  So although there’s lots of negative forecasts for Netflix, it is estimated big subcriber growth in 4th quarter, plus higher revenue.

Indexes Could Rise Again

New records for the stock markets forecasted. As companies report 3rd quarter results, some analysts are expecting good things. The S&P and Dow Jones are just 1% from all time highs and NASDAQ is just 2% away.  The vaunted global slowdown doesn’t appear to be happening, and US GDP is performing okay. Netflix just reported outstanding earnings despite its own slower subscriber growth — yet Apple may show better performance at the expense of Netflix.

Best Performing Stocks

Here are your best performing mid caps and large caps of recent:

Booming Stock Price Trend so Far in 2019 is No Joke

So far this year, the DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P, TSX and the Russell Index have enjoyed strong gains.

The NASDAQ in particular has risen every week so far this year, which has never happened before. NASDAQ is up 1% in the last week, 9% during January and February. It’s riding on the price rises and excellent earnings reports from Facebook, Google, Netflix, and Amazon. Walmart, Microsoft, and a host of other big companies also posted positive earnings during this quarter, bolstering a strong upward trend that should last 2019.

And it’s not just multinational corporations with crazy good profits. Mids caps listed on the Russell Index are doing wonderfully. But some sighs of relief from multinationals who are exposed to tariffs might be driving the indexes of late. Trump has extended the trade Tariff while US China talks continue.

There’s no doubt that investment money that left the market is flooding back in, and Americans are loading their retirement savings accounts to get a bigger tax rebate.

The biggest news of late is the Fed’s turn to dovish overview of interest rates and President Trumps trade negotiations with China. Can Trump create a win-win situation though?

As the trade issues have eased, stock markets in Europe and Asia have had a rebound.

Latest Stock Market News February

• Best start for the stock market in 32 years by one measure — so why is Wall Street so uneasy?
• What is the economic growth of each state? See the Coloradoan report.
• Trump sees ‘good chance’ of trade deal with China as talks go into weekend — LA Times Report
• Trump: China Tariffs Delayed, Cites ‘Substantial Progress’ in Talks – report from The Street
• China markets surging on news of Tariff delay and ongoing trade talks — Bloomberg Reports
• China intends to dominate the Electric Car industry — CBS News report.
• Debt Is Roaring Back in China – Bloomberg Asia reports
• Homebuilder Stocks are Cheap but Gains Are Around the Corner – from The Street
• U.S. shale oil output to hit record 8.4 million bpd in March: EIA — Reuters News report
• The U.S. Shale Oil Boom Is About To Get A Major Upgrade — from Investors.com
• Consumer Confidence report to be released Tuesday — from the Wall Street Journal
• Oil Prices touch highest in 2019 — from the Wall Street Journal
• Fed struggling with monetary policy, citing volatility as negative on GDP — from Seeking alpha

 

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