Dow Forecast DJIA Now in Mid April of 2021,…
Market Outlook for Next Week
Last week was another interesting week for the stock markets with the Dow Jones hitting a record and the other indexes looking like they’re ready to go for theirs too. This week is looking good.
Sunday’s futures are down as J Powell expresses concern over the economy opening too early. Dow Jones futures were 0.3% below fair value. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%. Earnings reports are coming in strong, bond yields are down, and J Powell also commented that the “economy is about to start growing much more quickly with rapid job growth thanks to vaccinations and massive fiscal and monetary efforts.” He said he is in no hurry to scale back bond buying and that some asset prices are overvalued.
Barron’s forecasts the markets will be flat on Monday morning. Banks are to be the first to report earnings, so experts believe it should make it a positive week ahead.
The market weathered the poor employment news last week, but could be bogged down by rumors of a future correction. More stock market crash talk is showing up in forums and media stories.
If you’re a self-directed investors using the main stock market investing resources online, you might be building more sensitivity to the short term market forecasts. Smart investors are always looking ahead to tomorrow or next week or the next month, but don’t forget the long term view.
Last week, stock futures were up on new jobs (↑916,000) and wages numbers (↑4.2%) and the market had a good week. Still some investors are in waiting mode regarding Joe Biden’s infrastructure stimulus plan. The Republicans are not expected to pass it. So the waiting game continues.
Weekly forecast hunters are pursuing clues about the direction of the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ for specific stocks or ETF’s worth buying or those they should dump. I’d like to hear from you about which stocks you think are going to jump next week April 12th to 16th.
Investor Place recommends watching these stocks this week:
- Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) Canadian Cannabis Company
- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) US Bank
- Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) US Bank
- Bed, Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) US Retail
- PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) US manufacturer
- Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) Taiwan Chip Maker
- Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) USA Airline
This Week’s Futures:
Is a Weekly Stock Forecast Even Possible?
Day traders especially zero in on these temporal changes in stock values. They love that volatility if they can figure it out. For the last few weeks, there’s been a lot of uncertainty regarding the Fed stimulus package. With it’s passing into action, that volatility might ease and we could be back to the bull market run.
You can see consistent factors in routine Monday to Friday trading, but do weeks have consistent buying patterns? If there was, the technical guys would have said something about it by now.
But let’s face it, there’s not many professional advisors sticking their neck out about stock price predictions for 5 to 7 days from now. If you can see how stock investors reacted last week to news, and you know the news coming, then you may be able to figure out how they’ll react next week. I think next week’s price growth will mirror this weeks, perhaps picking up the pace.
Here’s the Top performer’s Today
This week’s stock market price surge might signal a change. The pandemic winter’s dour mood is leaving us. Retail stores are reopening and it won’t be long before tourism begins to pick up as vaccination numbers grow.
Some estimate full vacations across the US by June. that’s about 11 weeks away. So the hot stocks during 2020, just might be a the losers beginning this week and next week. Which stocks will fly and which will fall? Anyone who knows that would be filthy rich. My picks for next week would be Tesla and big losers will likely be Bitcoin and even Amazon.
Just on a note about stock forecasting and predictions, AI stock software might be the route to detecting trends and getting a bearing on what might happen next week. But AI prediction tools still haven’t been programmed to react to seasonality and end of pandemics. For short term forecasts, it might be wise to try them out.
Tech Stocks Jumped Today
This week the markets are well back perhaps onto record levels in the week ahead. NASDAQ is up an startling 3.9% today as tech stocks surge. Tesla, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple both have surged since last week’s dive. This likely in response to the stimulus bill passing. The OECD forecasts US GDP will double to 5.6% growth because of the stimulus hand out and vaccinations are proceeding well in the US.
What About Volatility?
Last week, markets were volatile, rising on Monday and Tuesday, dying on Wednesday and Thursday with a last minute revival. The big events were interpretations of Jerome Powell’s speech about interest rates, and of course the passing of stimulus relief, which many thought might never happen.
Government bonds rates have been rising and it’s causing concerns for investors. It promotes the idea that interest rates will be on the rise. However, the economy is too fragile for interest rate rises, even with $1.9 stimulus. Some believe inflation will lose steam in the second half and perhaps set us up on the road to a market crash.
If rates rise, it could crash the housing market, creating more issues for affordability, new construction and much higher house and rental prices (supply vs demand).
Charles Schwab’s Randy Fredericks made his next week prognosis by summarizing it this way: treasuries continue to rattle equities; Fed fails to calm markets. Treasury investment supporters stirred up trouble, but no one will listen to them next week as stimulus rolls out.
“The 10-year (yield) is now overbought on the short-term charts,” says Dan Wantrobski, technical strategist and associate director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, adding that further pullbacks “should power better relative performance out of the tech sector over the short-run.” — from Kiplinger report today.
If that was the cause of the recent correction, the release of the Stimulus funds package should help to get business moving again and that should shrink the bond market back down. The Fed has pronounced steady low rates for years. The economy can’t take higher rates so the talk is likely just pandemic pessimism and political propaganda (like usual).
The NASDAQ, S&P, Russell, and Dow Jones are indicating a bottoming now as the stimulus relief is appearing and as vaccinations grow fast. The more reports this week about vaccination numbers, and a reopening of local and state economies will push jobless numbers down plus ease unemployment claims.
Even if a new variant Covid 19 surge, the economy will reawaken from its long slumber. Next week, next Thursday, the job numbers should be up again. February’s job numbers were up 569,000 over January. March’s numbers will likely be record breaking.
Last month’s huge winter storm really dampened economic output and has lead to higher oil prices. The glut of demand will dissipate and oil price supply will increase as needed to pull oil prices back down. It’s unlikely OPEC will be able to suppress supply for long as oil economies need the revenues.
This might be the week we see the pandemic stocks take a dive as investors move onto post pandemic stocks.
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* Note: This post on next weeks stock prices is for informational and entertainment purposes and should not be regarded as investment advice for any market transactions. Please consult with your stock and financial advisor for investment decisions.