Florida Housing Forecast 2022

Florida Real Estate Market Forecast

The forecast in Florida is typical of what’s happening in most housing markets in the US. However, a number of factors make the Sunshine State very attractive to Americans.  The migration to Miami and the Gulf Coast cities is notable and buyers are closing fast and paying cash.

Closed sales of houses in Florida rose almost 2500 units to 29988 from 27541 in November. The median price hit another record height of $373,990, up from $364,900 in November.

The rise in house sales was 21% year over year, yet sales were down 16% vs last December of 2020. Pending sales are down 2800 units from November and were up 1.6% from last December.

Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors Chief Economist pointed out that 2021 was a distinct year for the Florida housing market. 

“In all, there were over 528,000 total sales of existing homes (all types) in 2021 — an increase of 19% over 2020’s total. The dollar volume of these sales totaled nearly $241 billion, … an increase of over 48%.” 

Brad points also forecast moderating prices in 2022 due to interest rate hikes.  However, he also said “It’s a long-run problem; we have a long way to go when it comes to building… We need construction workers. Builders continue to face constraints but have been building at the fastest pace in recent memory. However, high prices and low rates of starter home construction will remain a challenge.”

The growing demand of millennials, migrants, and millions of Floridians who want more space and work from home options, means builders will likely not keep pace.

The big story every month across Florida is a receding inventory which has dropped 337% year over year. Some good news is the new listings are only down 1.6% YoY, to 23,329 houses put for sale in December. In November new listings rose to 26,869.

Most housing markets in the US are suffering huge drops in inventory so the Florida situation is brighter than most states and cities. The total dollar volume of houses sold across Florida, grew 2.5 billion in December vs November to $16.5 billion. That is up 17% over December 2020.

It’s never a simple thing to compare to pandemic periods, and as the pandemic finally eases in the spring, the market will fully open to investors eager for a vacation to check out available homes in Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Boca Raton, Orlando, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Panama City and other beautiful Florida locations.

We wonder what a big Northeastern US TV ad blitz would do for drawing attention to the market?

Single Family House Sales

Single Family house sales in December 2021.
Single Family house sales in December 2021. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

December’s housing sales stats reveal a true seller’s marketplace. Florida real estate remains in demand, due it’s relative low prices, low taxes, strong economy, and warn climate. Stats show strong immigration to the low tax states including Idaho, Arizona, Texas, and Montana.

9146 house buyers paid all cash in December vs Novembers total of 8564 buyers. Median time to contract is at 12 days showing how quickly deal are getting done. Median time to sale dropped 17% year over year to 53 days.

Florida close house sales.
Florida close house sales. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.
Cash house sales rise in Florida.
Single Family home sales in Cash in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.
Median house price in Florida is Rising.
Median house price in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.
Florida house inventory shrinking.
Florida house inventory shrinking. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.
House sales at price levels.
Home sales at price levels. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Condo Stats for December

December Townhouse and Condo sales. State of Florida
December Townhouse and Condo sales. State of Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Condo sales in Florida is flat relative to last year. 12789 condos changed owners in December, while prices have rocketed 23.9% vs only 12 months ago. Active inventory has dropped to 17869 units from 19,997 in the previous month, for a one month drop of about 2%. Total new condo listings dropped about 1600 units to 10,485 now available, which is down 6.4% year over year.

Inventory across all price levels is down substantially including units above $1 million dollars.

Median condo prices rising in Florida.
Median condo prices rising in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Median sold prices of Florida condos have risen 23.9% in the last 12 months. The new media of $285,000 is up $11,670 to $273,270 in the past month. Median time to contract has plummeted to 16 days, down -55.6% from last December.

Florida condos are selling quick, for cash. 50.4% of sales are all cash sales, and this up 13.5% since last December. 5886 condos were paid in cash vs 4664 units in November.

We’d have to say the Florida condominium market is heating up.

Best Florida Cities to Buy – House Prices by MSA

Florida house prices. Best Cities.
Florida house prices by city. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Lawrence Yun of NAR said he expects this winter to be one of the strongest across the US.  If the pandemic eases, off and the stock markets get rolling again, and the recovery gain momentum, housing sales across the US should pick up. With more Americans, Canadians and Europeans visiting this winter, Realtors should have no trouble showing the few homes available for sale.  Housing supply is the issue.

Is it a good time to buy in Florida?  Given the economic recovery, Florida’s great tax situation, strong, persistent demand, and attractiveness to retirees, it still is a good investment. Buyers are coming from as far away as California. As discussed in the housing market forecast report, US housing should cost 5.7% more by 2022, and Florida real estate will likely be on a similar path. Fall is a good season to buy and this might be a lull before prices really roar in early 2022.

Florida real estate is still one of the most desirable locations to live, regardless of politics and Covid 19 infections. The climate, low tax, increased entrepreneurialism and more keeps drawing real estate investors and home buyers from everywhere. Cities such as NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington and northeastern cities are where many buyers come from.

The Allure of Florida Strong Despite Prices

Price is a good barometer of buyer preference and intent.

Florida’s gorgeous climate is a huge draw for most buyers of home here. While Florida was considered a dead end back 30 years ago for snowbirds and tourism workers in decades past, the state has diversified its economy from agriculture in the middle to tech in the south (See Miami real estate forecast. Much of the state’s housing market is quite affordable compared to other locations such as Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago.

Hot Topic for 2021/2022
Is Florida still the best state to move to?
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Condo Sales in October 2021

Florida has one of the hottest US housing market forecasts for 2021, 2022 and beyond, and predictions are that bidding wars will be common. Buyers from New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Toronto are eager to own a home in Tampa or Miami and other beautiful FL cities.

See the Tampa St Petes and Miami real estate reports.  As detailed in this epic report on Florida’s real estate scene, home prices will always rise against a lack of supply.  Add on the hope of the economic recovery in July or August, and the stage is set for rocketing home prices across the Sunshine state.  The price of lumber, land, and steel along with labor shortages are going to impinge on the Florida state housing market as well.

Still, sellers should not sell their house fast, and rather sell strategically for a better price. Realtors check real estate marketing services to help you generate more leads.

Florida Realtors believed rising interest rates would moderate demand and prices, but I think it’s unlikely. The Fed has promised continuous low rates and said inflation is not an issue. There is pent up demand, low construction numbers and rising savings and wages to lay down on a Florida home.

If buyers are buying houses and condos in Florida, it means they’re seeling in the North (Manhattan, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington, Baltimore, New Jersey, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, etc) to find single detached homes anywhere.  They’re looking for safety from Covid 19 and more room and nice weather to work in.

The forecast for the next 3 months is stronger than normal, leading into a 6 month growth period of unusual intensity. The 5 year real estate market outlook for Florida looks promising. This should encourage buyers to pay more and sellers to demand more for hard to find houses.

Florida Population Growth Outlook

A study/prediction by http://edr.state.fl.us/ suggests Florida’s population will grow by 60,000 over the next 3 years ( a compound growth rate of 1.53%).

The edr.state study also shows further that population growth may begin to decline, death rate to climb, and household size begin to shrink after 2023. Overall, net migration is predicted to remain high which supports long term house prices.

House Prices by City in June 2021

Wondering which cities might offer the best value in 2021? House prices have increased the most in Destin/Fort Walton, Homosassa Springs, Naples, Sarasota Bradenton, Pensacola, Punta Gorda, Melbourne, Miami Fort Lauderdale, and Cape Coral.

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

  • low mortgage rates
  • low Florida taxes
  • people getting in before the boom and rocketing Florida prices
  • greater square footage living
  • economic concerns and debt in Northeastern states
  • more houses in the south vs apartments in the north
  • Covid 19 outbreaks continue among the stubbornly unvaccinated
  • buyers thinking ahead to new winter with the Florida warmth, sunshine, beaches and water, and year-round activity; no -40 or shoveling snow in Florida
  • economic diversity in the Sunshine state
  • coming boom of recreation and travel
  • pent up consumer demand returns in a wave
  • the reduction of work shutdowns

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home.  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers.

Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, as in all US housing markets, the forecast is a full return by summer of 2021.

Luxury Homes in South Florida

See more on the Miami real estate market and Tampa real estate market.

Tampa Bay Home Sales

In Tampa and Hillsborough County, the median listing home price in Tampa, FL rose 15.5% year over year to $350K. The median home sales price reached $340K. Days on market in Tampa, FL dropped slightly to 46 days.

In Miami Dade County, Miami Real Estate  see best June sales month ever as existing condo sales jumped 212.8% vs last June. Miami-Dade County total home sales surged 114.3% year-over-year in June 2021, from 1,893 sales to 4,057. Miami single-family house sales went up by 41.6%, from 1,089 to 1,542.  And existing condo sales in Miami grew 212.8%, from 804 to 2,515 units.

The big rise in sales is being attributed to pent-up demand, more U.S. individuals and companies moving to South Florida, and record-low mortgage rates.

See more on the Miami real estate market picture.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: What will happen with prices in 2021 if there is a vaccine and travel to Florida returns full tilt?

Disney World closing, Cruise lines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training canceled, spring break vacation canceled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is primed to return.

There are still challenges for homebuyers looking for affordable buying opportunities in 2021’s housing market.  A homebuyers tax credit, recovering economy and low mortgage rates should help.

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The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2022 and beyond.

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8 Comments

  1. You talk like high prices for homes is a good thing- Realtors never consider that people need a place to live- they have to move from place to place to survive the increases in the cost of living- and it’s you guys in the real estate business that set the prices – cut the realtors out/ you don’t need big commissions – you barely work for a living anyway- the rest of us have to Slug it out for 8 hours a day and you just think you are so clever because you can Jack up the price of housing and rent- builders like KB and the other are just shysters building cracker box homes and ripping people off- they’ve been doing it for 40 years. The real Estate industry sucks because it’s run by criminals and politicians – I just saw an old run down wood house built in 1954 they wanted $500k – you guys set that price – realtors are ghouls.

    1. I’d have to argue that it is politicians (local and state) who create high housing prices, not real estate agents. Realtors market homes within a price range, and can get the best price, that’s true. However, politicians drive the housing shortage, stop development and construction, create poverty, and generate home prices 50% above where they should be. I understand your plight for sure, and government policy on housing is destructive. We need to vote them out so more housing can be built in Florida and everywhere else.

  2. Things have been sliding in Ft Myers/ Naples area for the last 6 -9 months, and it’s continuing to drop in price, especially condos. The realtors seem to think if we pretend it’s not happening and says it’s hot, that it will be or get hot, not so .

    1. I’m a Naples realtor. I’ve had so much work that I stopped advertising. May was very slow to me, but June and July has been hopping busy for me. It is “off season”. Just wait until Fall pre-season (when builders typically aquire their vacant land inventory to build for buyers who arrive in the Winter). Then “in season” starts right after the New Year. I think realtors and title agencies will have so much work that it will make their head spin.

  3. The Doral market is already crashing. Homes bought for 850k are now selling for 650k. Homestead Is another place where people have paid 335k for a home but didn’t realize the high cost of taxes (average tax in Homestead Florida is 5k) in this city due to the new developers taxing a CDD TAX that will remain on your taxes to be paid over 30 years. Prepare yourself the market is going to drop in the next year there are signs already. January 2020 expect it to drop in 2021 not go up. People in Florida spend more than they make they want to live the wealthy life and eventually they won’t have a pot to piss in at the end for over paying on a property they can’t afford.

    1. Raul, your property taxes are the same as most metros, and people are raving about the tax savings in moving to Florida. You can build cheap there. Looks like your area is going through some turbulence. The economy is excellent and we’d expect demand will grow from those can afford to live there.

      1. wow, you must be a realtor… So many low paying jobs.Not to mention florida counts every part time job, so in reality our job market is much lower than what Florida claims! Tell me someone earning 15.00 in which we are not there yet!
        That’s about 30,000 a year! How much home can you afford on that income??? Let me tell you. One can not even afford to buy a house, so they find themselves paying 1200,00 and up for a rental! Not much left for food, auto insurance or car paymentx.

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