Florida Housing Forecast 2022

Florida Real Estate Market

As Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor pointed out in reports, sales growth in the Florida housing market “has slowed considerably”  Yet it is still a healthy housing market compared to other states.

O’Connor followed up in the latest sales report, that sales have declined down to pre-pandemic levels. However, prices have not declined similarly. House prices fell justly slight to $401,990 which is equal to the year to date price (up 12% year over year).

Zillow however reports that all 4 of the major US housing markets with the greatest year-over-year home value appreciation are in Florida: Miami (23.3%), Tampa (21.2%), Orlando (20.9%), and Jacksonville (19.8%). Buyers find it difficult to give up the Florida dream, however they have given up on the California dream.

While the market appears to be slowing a little, it is still hot compared to 12 months ago. Although the US GDP numbers were not great, Florida’s job numbers were outstanding again, posting a 30th straight month of job growth. The state enjoyed a record level in its GDP to $1,226 trillion in 2021 according to BEA data.

In October single-family median prices rose 12% year-to-year, while the median condo price rose 19.2%. Inventories rose by almost 2800 listings, to 68,813. New listings were down month to month by 550. Year over year, new listings are down 18.1%.

Too Much To Resist

A number of factors make the Sunshine State very attractive to Americans.  Besides the beautiful climate and lifestyle, the state follows it up with no state income tax and many other factors that make it very attractive to businesses. More companies from New York, Massachusetts and California are deciding to make the move to Florida.

The migration to Miami, Tampa and other Florida towns and communities remains brisk and buyers keep bidding prices up, closing fast and still paying cash for their property.

“We are seeing signs that Florida’s housing market is changing, as for-sale inventory continued to increase in August.  The much-needed gains in active inventory will hopefully ease the pressure of rising home prices for buyers. Statewide, homes are continuing to go under contract quickly” — said 2022 Florida Realtors President Christina Pappas

In October, the statewide median sales price for condo-townhouse units, was $310,000, up 19.2% over the year-ago figure.

Compare Florida house prices in Los Angeles, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Denver, New Jersey, Vancouver or Toronto, Florida real estate remains a bargain with a strong demand profile for the next 5 years at least.

October Home Sales Report

“The supply of for-sale homes continues to slowly build, easing inventory constraints in many markets across the state,” said 2022 Florida Realtors® President Christina Pappas.

Single Family Home sales and prices October
Single Family Home sales and prices October. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

“Our data trends indicate for-sale inventory levels are beginning to rise, which could help lessen the pressure of rising prices and housing affordability for buyers over time,” says 2022 Florida Realtors President Christina Pappas.

Home Prices in Florida

Prices stayed level in June, however they are still up 19.7% vs last year.

Single Family Home sales and prices October.
Single Family Home sales and prices October. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

See more on the Tampa housing market, Fort Lauderdale, Miami housing market, Boca Raton housing market, Orlando, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Panama City and other beautiful Florida locations.

Rest assured that interest from those selling in the New York housing market, Boston housing market, Philadelphia housing market, Toronto housing market, Atlanta housing market and Chicago housing market will remain brisk. Although talk of a potential housing market crash abounds, the Florida market will always be of interest to buyers. More retirees who have cash may appreciate being able to buy in the Sunshine state at a more affordable price. There are plenty of demographic, tax and economic reasons that Florida’s market may be the most resilient.  See more on the US housing market forecast.

New Home Listings

October 2022’s housing sales stats continue to show Florida reigns as one of the most desirable places in the US to live. The state’s home buyers face the same financial challenges as buyers across the nation, and a similar fear of a big housing correction. Surprisingly, the supply of homes and new listings are lower now.

New home listings are one of the most important stats to buyers.  New listings declined by 559 units, however a total of 25,546 units were presented for sale.

Condo and townhome sales and prices October.
Condo and townhome sales and prices October. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Active Inventory of Homes for Sale in October 2022

For buyers across the world and throughout the US who would like to buy a home in Florida, the good news is the high and rising number of homes being listed for sale. Inventory is up 88.4% year over year reflecting the need of many homeowners to sell and move onto something else with their lives. These could be second homes although Florida Realtors isn’t releasing that data publicly.  Yet, we know many wealthy people are relinquishing some of their properties (when prices are at records). It’s just common sense.

Condo and townhome sales and prices October.
Condo and townhome sales and prices October. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

However, most of the inventory is luxury priced homes. The listing prices of newly listed homes below $300,000 dropped 40% to 50% year over year. And there are few lower-priced homes for sale.  Homes above $300,000 were able to list at higher prices.  Any home priced at $400k and above actually were listed above last year’s prices.

Cities such as Miami and Tampa were very popular.  The hurricane had an effect, as many homes in the Charlotte/Fort Myers region suffered extensive damage. Those residents will rebuild, thus drawing construction investment into the area. This may bode well for housing development going forward in the southern Gulf coast region going forward.

New home listings by price.
New home listings by price. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Fewer Florida houses are being sold in the lower price range, yet more sales are happening in the higher price ranges, particularly between $300k and $600k.

It has the most vibrant markets too now year round.  It compares to Texas, California, Arizona, and Nevada as one of the best US housing markets.  Stats show strong sales in the southern US region and immigration to the low tax states including Idaho, Arizona, Texas, and Montana.

Florida home sales and prices by city/region in October

Single family home sales and prices october.
Single family home sales and prices October. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Condo Stats for October 2022

Lakeland, Naples, Punta Gorda, The Villages, and Cape Coral remain the hottest destinations for buyers in August.

Condo and townhome sales and prices october.
Condo and townhome sales and prices October. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Florida real estate is still one of the most desirable locations to live, regardless of politics and the economy. The climate, low tax, increased entrepreneurialism, pro-business attitude, ocean lifestyle and more keeps drawing real estate investors and home buyers from everywhere. Cities such as NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington and northeastern cities are where many buyers come from.

The Allure of Florida Strong Despite Prices

Price is a good barometer of buyer preference and intent.

Florida’s gorgeous climate is a huge draw for most buyers of home here. While Florida was considered a dead end back 30 years ago for snowbirds and tourism workers in decades past, the state has diversified its economy from agriculture in the middle to tech in the south (See Miami real estate forecast. Much of the state’s housing market is quite affordable compared to other locations such as Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago

Florida has one of the hottest US housing market forecasts for 2022 and beyond. Buyers from New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Toronto are eager to own a home in Tampa or Miami and other beautiful FL cities.

See the Tampa St Petes and Miami real estate reports.  As detailed in this epic report on Florida’s real estate scene, home prices will always rise against a lack of supply.  The price of lumber, land, and steel along with labor shortages are going to impinge on the Florida state housing market as well.

Still, sellers should not sell their house fast, and rather sell strategically for a better price. Realtors check real estate marketing services to help you generate more leads.

Florida Realtors believed rising interest rates would moderate demand and prices, and those rates have begun to do just that. The Fed had promised continuous low rates and said inflation is not an issue. That has all changed and they are reversing their previous intent.  There is pent up demand, low construction numbers and rising savings and wages to lay down on a Florida home.  Any drop in price or mortgage rates tends to stir up buyers quickly.

The forecast for the next 3 months is stronger than normal, leading into a 6 month growth period of unusual intensity. The 5 year real estate market outlook for Florida looks promising. This should encourage buyers to pay more and sellers to demand more for hard to find houses.

Florida Population Growth Outlook

A study/prediction by http://edr.state.fl.us/ suggests Florida’s population will grow by 60,000 over the next 3 years ( a compound growth rate of 1.53%).

The edr.state study also shows further that population growth may begin to decline, death rate to climb, and household size begin to shrink after 2023. Overall, net migration is predicted to remain high which supports long term house prices.

House Prices by City in April 2022

Wondering which cities might offer the best value in 2022? House prices have increased the most in Tampa, Hommassassa Springs, Cape Coral, Lakeland Winterhaven, Ocala and Punta Gorda, all beautiful locations.

florida housing sales city by city.
Florida housing sales city by city. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

  • low mortgage rates
  • low Florida taxes
  • people getting in before the boom and rocketing Florida prices
  • greater square footage living
  • economic concerns and debt in Northeastern states
  • more houses in the south vs apartments in the north
  • Covid 19 outbreaks continue among the stubbornly unvaccinated
  • buyers thinking ahead to new winter with the Florida warmth, sunshine, beaches and water, and year-round activity; no -40 or shoveling snow in Florida
  • economic diversity in the Sunshine state
  • coming boom of recreation and travel
  • pent up consumer demand returns in a wave
  • the reduction of work shutdowns

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home.  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers.

Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, as in all US housing markets, the forecast is a full return by summer of 2021.

Luxury Homes in South Florida

See more on the Miami real estate market and Tampa real estate market.

Tampa Bay Home Sales

In Tampa and Hillsborough County, the median listing home price in Tampa, FL rose 15.5% year over year to $350K. The median home sales price reached $340K. Days on market in Tampa, FL dropped slightly to 46 days.

In Miami Dade County, Miami Real Estate  see best June sales month ever as existing condo sales jumped 212.8% vs last June. Miami-Dade County total home sales surged 114.3% year-over-year in June 2021, from 1,893 sales to 4,057. Miami single-family house sales went up by 41.6%, from 1,089 to 1,542.  And existing condo sales in Miami grew 212.8%, from 804 to 2,515 units.

The big rise in sales is being attributed to pent-up demand, more U.S. individuals and companies moving to South Florida, and record-low mortgage rates.

See more on the Miami real estate market picture.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism? Not in 2022, post pandemic now. The Florida economy is strong and travel and leisure is making a comeback now in the final days of the Covid era shutdown.  With a harsh winter head in 2022/2023, Florida should remain the country’s destination of choice for winter getaways, and with more senior snowbirds, I’m forecasting a good winter.

There are still challenges for homebuyers looking for affordable buying opportunities in 2021’s housing market.  A homebuyers tax credit, recovering economy and low mortgage rates should help.

The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

See more forecasts on the real estate housing market, and the latest home prices and sales trends for numerous major metros in California including San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento.  See stats on other cities, including Denver, Dallas, New York, Boston, Atlanta and in the Florida housing market in Miami and Tampa.  Visit linkedin to discover advanced level SEO and real estate marketing services.

Rising mortgage rates, inflation, reduced housing supply and high home prices threaten the markets, it appears 2022’s real estate scene will stay strong. Realtors may want to build their presence this year as house prices decline in 2023. Lower prices will bring plenty of homes onto the market and boost your opportunities.

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