Florida Real Estate Market

Home sales and dollar value transactions eased off from April’s surprising performance, but the State of Florida enjoys one of the strongest housing markets in America.

Suffice to say however that the Florida housing market is cooling off. Slower economic growth, falling US dollar, high mortgage rates, and consumer skepticism have combined to slow demand.

 

In Florida Realtor’s last homebuyer profile report, they found that

• First-time buyers comprise 21% vs 34% in the rest of the country.
• Average age of buyers was 57 years with average income of $95,900.
• 65% of recent buyers were married , 18% single females, 8% single males, and 7% unmarried couples.
• 24% purchased because they wanted to own a home of their own.
• 80% of buyers in Florida financed their home purchase (for 85% of value).
• 55% of buyers, used their savings while 42% used the proceeds from selling their primary residence.
• the typical Florida home seller was 63 years old who lived in their home for eight years before selling.

During the July 2021 to July 2022 time period, Florida’s population rose above 22 million people. That 1.9% increase was the largest of any US state. Today the migration to Florida continues. The climate, low taxes, and job market make it very attractive, especially to the 55+ buyer who sees Florida as a good retirement destination and a good prospect for rental property income.

Although the demand is always there, the mortgage payments and US government strife are making buyers hold off on purchasing. And homeowners are staying put as they are across the entire US housing market.

11 Year House Price Growth Streak Ends

And while single family homes ended an 11 year streak of price growth, townhouses and condos continued with yet another month of rising prices.

Still Q1 2023 saw an overall decline in sales in the Sunshine State as high interest rates suppressed the buyer market, and fewer homes were put up for sale (fewer buyers willing to buy).  The drop in activity in April, was still an improvement on the steep year over year drop in January and February. Florida’s market might begin to mirror the general forecast for the US and the 2024 housing market forecast.

Closed sales on homes fell by about 2800 units from April, while median prices remained stable at $410,000.  New pending sales dropped as did new listings and pending inventory. The only bright spot for home buyers in Florida is that active is up sharply from last year.

 

 

Redfin Florida Cities with Highest Home Price Increases

Deerfield Beach leads the high price growth parade with a whopping 50% price growth going from affordable to perhaps unaffordable. The search for affordable Florida homes might be a passionate pursuit for some buyers.

It might look like the pandemic boom might be over, yet is it just waiting for rates to go down?

Single Family Home Sales

Florida house sales dropped 17.2% year over year while dollar volume decreased 20%.

Median Prices paid on Florida home purchases stayed flat yet remain up 1.8% year to date.

New Listings sunk 20% year over year and about 10% down from March.

Active Single Family home inventory dropped about 6%, yet remains up 80% vs last April of 2022.

Townhouse and Condo sales were down from March and are down 26.8% from last April 2022.

Townhouse and Condo prices rose 4.8% year over year and were up $5000 vs March 2023.

Redfin’s reflect similar trends as Florida Realtors. Here’s Redfin’s surprising stat on the cities with the highest price growth. Investors hoping for the best cap rates may find these cities most interesting.

Compare Florida house prices in Los Angeles, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Denver, Atlanta, Vancouver or Toronto, Florida real estate remains a bargain with a strong demand profile for the next 5 years at least.

Home Prices in Florida

See more on the Tampa housing market, Fort Lauderdale, Miami housing market, Boca Raton housing market, Orlando, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Panama City and other beautiful Florida locations.

Buyers and sellers, find out more about conditions in the New York housing market, Boston housing market, Philadelphia housing market, Toronto housing market, Atlanta housing market and Chicago housing market.

In-migration is highest in the nation in Florida.  Florida and Tennessee are nearly tied for the most attractive destinations for US retirees.

More retirees who have cash may appreciate being able to buy in the Sunshine state at a more affordable price, but that lower priced real estate is drying up fast. There are plenty of demographic, tax and economic reasons that Florida’s market may be the most resilient.  See more on the US housing market forecast.

Florida home sales and prices by city/region

Condo Stats for April

Florida real estate is still one of the most desirable locations to live, regardless of politics and the economy. The climate, low tax, increased entrepreneurialism, pro-business attitude, ocean lifestyle and more keeps drawing real estate investors and home buyers from everywhere. Cities such as NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington and northeastern cities are where many buyers come from.

The Allure of Florida Strong Despite Prices

Price is a good barometer of buyer preference and intent.

Florida’s gorgeous climate is a huge draw for most buyers of home here. While Florida was considered a dead end back 30 years ago for snowbirds and tourism workers in decades past, the state has diversified its economy from agriculture in the middle to tech in the south (See Miami real estate forecast. Much of the state’s housing market is quite affordable compared to other locations such as Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago

Florida has one of the hottest US housing market forecasts for 2022 and beyond. Buyers from New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Toronto are eager to own a home in Tampa or Miami and other beautiful FL cities.

See the Tampa St Petes and Miami real estate reports.  As detailed in this epic report on Florida’s real estate scene, home prices will always rise against a lack of supply.  The price of lumber, land, and steel along with labor shortages are going to impinge on the Florida state housing market as well.

Still, sellers should not sell their house fast, and rather sell strategically for a better price. Realtors check real estate marketing services to help you generate more leads.

Florida Realtors believed rising interest rates would moderate demand and prices, and those rates did reduce prices eventually yet the real issue with Florida real estate is sellers who won’t list their properties. The Fed had promised continuous low rates and said inflation is not an issue. That has all changed and they are reversing their previous intent.  There is pent up demand, low construction numbers and some savings to lay down on a Florida home.

As we’ve seen from the stats, even when prices rise considerably, it doesn’t seem to encourage sellers put their homes up for sale. The conclusion is that sellers don’t want to sell or move from their paradise.  Even those in Fort Myers region who can afford to rebuild are rebuilding.  Retirees are there to retire for the rest of their lives.

That is just one more unique element of the housing market here. The in-migration of people from Latin America will surely create more demand especially for rentals and low prices condos.  This will draw in rental investors due to the outstanding ROI.  Florida has enjoyed a lot of new construction, and builders are optimistic, but is it enough to get them back on pace to satisfy demand?  Likely not.  Demand is simply too high.

The trend then is the interest in North Carolina, Tennessee and northern Arkansas which are seeing an influx of new residents. The cost of living and slower, safer lifestyle is a strong draw too.

The forecast for the next 3 months is stronger than normal, leading into a 6 month growth period of unusual intensity. The 5 year real estate market outlook for Florida looks promising. This should encourage buyers to pay more and sellers to demand more for hard to find houses.

Florida Population Growth Outlook

A study/prediction by http://edr.state.fl.us/ suggests Florida’s population will grow by 60,000 over the next 3 years ( a compound growth rate of 1.53%).

The edr.state study also shows further that population growth may begin to decline, death rate to climb, and household size begin to shrink after 2023. Overall, net migration is predicted to remain high which supports long term house prices.

 

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

• low mortgage rates
• low Florida taxes
• people getting in before the boom and rocketing Florida prices
• greater square footage living
• economic concerns and debt in Northeastern states
• more houses in the south vs apartments in the north
• Covid 19 outbreaks continue among the stubbornly unvaccinated
• buyers thinking ahead to new winter with the Florida warmth, sunshine, beaches and water, and year-round activity; no -40 or shoveling snow in Florida
• economic diversity in the Sunshine state
• coming boom of recreation and travel
• pent up consumer demand returns in a wave
• the reduction of work shutdowns

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home.  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers.

Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, as in all US housing markets, the forecast is a full return by summer of 2021.

Luxury Homes in South Florida

See more on the Miami real estate market and Tampa real estate market.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

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