Florida Real Estate Market
The Florida housing market is one of the most desirable to Americans and foreign buyers, but of late, it’s lost some its glitter. But is a home in Florida ever a bad idea?
Notwithstanding the US cost of living and affordability challenges which plague Florida too, this state typically thrives as the US economy begins to roll. When Americans are flush with cash or are mobile as many Seniors are, Florida homes begin to look very inviting. As 2025 and the 5 year real estate market rolls out ahead of us, Florida might be rolling out its red carpet for those hoping to live in the Sunshine state and do business here.
Florida’s lifestyle appeal and benefits are well known, but it is surprising that potential buyers, i.e., wealthy ones refuse to buy a home and instead rent for a few months. It suggests there is much potential in a digital marketing campaign for Realtors to reach buyers everywhere. A focus on local buyers is limited in scope, and home sellers who want their price need to expand their scope of marketing reach.
As a seller, you’ll be wise to find a Florida Realtor with strong exposure online as finding buyers and inducing them to pay your price is a marketing task. Look to the power of pre-suasion via digital marketing channels to create more leads and convert them to clients.
Florida’s Beautiful Cities Invite Buyers
From Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Boca Raton up to Naples, Sarasota, Tampa and St Petes over to Orlando and even into the panhandle region, this is a spectacular place to live and pamper friends and family who visit. But that’s not stopping homeowners from listing their Florida homes for sale. There are big pressures to sell and it’s an opportunity for buyers.
With more home listings and lower prices in some cities, this winter might present some excellent buying opportunities. It’s a good time to contact a Florida Realtor in the areas you’re most interested in and get informed about the local market. You can begin your search on Zillow too, or do a Google search for your market and get insights on markets and trends.
State of the Florida Real Estate Market
Florida is a market in stagnation, not really a buyer’s market and not a seller’s market in some areas that are seeing strong price declines. It’s a complex market with regional variations and trends, which opens up opportunities for buyers who are flexible about where they’d like to live and what is affordable.
It’s not so much about the state of supply and price, but rather about other economic changes that are driving listings and resident migration. For instance, rising insurance rates, cost of living, and a rising US dollar are forcing people to move away from Florida. The state is the favorite wintertime vacation spot, but for the Canadian snowbirds who flock there, the weak Canadian dollar is making buying impossible and the cost of living unbearable. This will impact the vacation market which fuels Florida’s home sales market.
Florida Housing Sales in November
December’s sales report isn’t out yet, however that month typically sees sales at its lowest point and won’t tell us much about what the 2025 housing market will play out. We know there are big pluses in President Trump’s plan to untax, deregulate, and favor American business. There is massive investment flows into the US reflecting how desirable the US will be to live in and do business in during the next 5 years. As Trump’s agenda plays out, demand on housing will grow immeasurably and prices will rise.
In November, year over year house sales declined by 3.5% while home prices overall fell slightly by -.6%. Homes sales at year end typically fall however, by March the buying/selling season always surges.
Dr Brad O’connor says increases in new listings and pending sales, suggesting a potential turnaround despite ongoing challenges. New pending sales rose 12.6% compared to last year this time. Rising interest rates in the last 3 months has deterred many new buyers from committing to a Florida home purchase.
He concedes that Florida could be headed toward a bottoming out period just as some other US states are experiencing. The US housing forecast doesn’t reflect the specific challenges and opportunities of Florida. Florida has always been a unique housing market.
The condo/townhouse market is different than the single housing market, as new construction requirements are putting a dent in condo sales, which dropped 5.9% in November year over year. The most notable statistic is the median time to sale, or days on market. It is up 25% year over year, and up 40 days on average vs two years ago.
For buyers, Florida’s moderate prices, growing availability and long listing times are positive for negotiations. Foreclosure purchases are up too. Many sellers are eager to sell, but will insist on full price. Given prices haven’t fallen, it will be a tough negotiation between buyers/sellers and their chosen Florida Realtors. In some cities, prices are falling so we know buyers are winning the negotiation battles.
Florida Residential Real Estate: Charts and Graphs
Let’s take a look at the top 7 November home sales stats from Florida Realtors.
The first graph from Florida Realtor’s November update shows closed sales down 3.5% and cash sales down 16.2%. Days on market to contract date grew a whopping 62% to a tiresome 47 days. Active inventory is swelling as homes aren’t getting sold. Months of supply rose almost 30% year over year, while active inventory rose by 27%.
The picture is of much more inventory yet buyers don’t seem to be able to pull the sell trigger for a variety of reasons. Clearly, sellers need help to resolve these issues.
Florida Median Home Prices
Median home prices fell slightly in November year over year yet remain 2.4% higher than one year ago. The median price of $420,ooo is not far off the record price.
Florida Home Sales, Days on Market
Median time to contract grew 62% year over year, up 2 days from October.
Florida New Detached Home Listings
Home listings grew by a strong 7.2% YoY in November, which may have been affected by the October hurricane.
Florida Active Home Listings
Single-family home inventory swelled to 100,788 units for sale, up 26.9% from one year ago. This is 21,000 more homes for sale than 2 years previous and 80,000 more than 3 years ago. The continuous increase is being fueled by rising mortgage rates, fears of economic decline, cost of living, and home insurance costs in some regions.
Florida Home Inventory by Listing Price
Inventory of homes varied according to price with inventories growing strongest in the $200,000 to $400,000 range. Inventory of million-dollar homes was weakest showing wealthy buyers feel Florida is a bargain market.
Florida Single Detached Home Prices by City
Across the state house prices rose 2.4% year over year. Cape Coral (-3.6%) and Lakeland (-1%) are the two cities that bucked that uptrend. The hottest Florida cities are Miami/Fort Lauderdale (+3.6%), Naples (+4.4%), Jacksonville (+3.6%), Sebastian Vero Beach (+8.6%), Palm Bay/Melbourne (+4.5%), and Port St Lucie (+4.4%).
Florida Condo and Townhouse Prices by City
Statewide, condo and townhouse prices only rose .2% year over year, indicating the effect of severe weather, cost of living, insurance and new condo construction laws.
Homeowners Stubbornly Refuse a Lower Price
And into late 2024, Florida homeowners are so far refusing to accept anything lower than their desired price. However, should the US economy and Florida economy begin to stagnate, we wonder if a price crash decline might be in the offing in spring 2025?
US inflation is dropping, layoffs are rising, and the effects of high mortgage rates are kicking in. If buyers don’t get the lower rates widely expected in 2025, and sellers have to sell due to refinancing challenges, the stage might be set for a price landslide. By mid-2025, it’s expected we’ll enjoy a drop in mortgage rates, however, there’s no guarantee that can happen with a booming economy struggling with supply side challenges.
Zillow Home Values: Florida
Zillow’s report shows similar numbers to Florida Realtors, for all types of housing. Zillow shows prices remain at record levels with a November median of $372,667 with a median days on market of 48. The median house price comes in at $409,736 while the median condo/townhouse price receded to $286,127.
Florida Rental Market
For investors looking to buy a rental, rental prices have not suffered along with the home listings. A vacation in Florida is as desirable as ever and renters do not appear to be leaving the state. Rent prices are up nearly 40% vs prepandemic years, and likely due to the massive increase in illegal migrants to the state via Biden’s open border policy. As President Trump begins to expel the illegals, it is likely to push home, condo and rent prices downward. The timeline for that is uncertaing.
Florida HomeBuyer Profile
- First-time buyers comprise 21% vs 34% in the rest of the country.
- Average age of buyers was 57 years with average income of $95,900.
- 65% of recent buyers were married , 18% single females, 8% single males, and 7% unmarried couples.
- 24% purchased because they wanted to own a home of their own.
- 80% of buyers in Florida financed their home purchase (for 85% of value).
- 55% of buyers, used their savings while 42% used the proceeds from selling their primary residence.
- the typical Florida home seller was 63 years old who lived in their home for eight years before selling.
Although the demand is always there, the mortgage payments and US government strife are making buyers hold off on purchasing. And homeowners are staying put as they are across the entire US housing market.
Compare Florida house prices in Los Angeles, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Denver, Atlanta, Vancouver or Toronto, and Florida real estate remains a bargain with a strong demand profile for the next 5 years at least.
More Cities to Review
See more on the Tampa housing market, Fort Lauderdale, Miami housing market, Boca Raton housing market, Orlando, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Panama City and other beautiful Florida locations.
Buyers and sellers, find out more about conditions in the New York housing market, Boston housing market, Philadelphia housing market, Toronto housing market, Atlanta housing market and Chicago housing market.
More retirees who have cash may appreciate being able to buy in the Sunshine state at a more affordable price, but that lower-priced real estate is drying up fast. There are plenty of demographic, tax and economic reasons that Florida’s market may be the most resilient. See more on the US housing market forecast.
The forecast for the next 3 months is stronger than normal, leading into a 6 month growth period of unusual intensity. The 5 year real estate market outlook for Florida looks promising. This should encourage buyers to pay more and sellers to demand more for hard to find houses.
Florida Population Growth Outlook
A study/prediction by http://edr.state.fl.us/ suggests Florida’s population will grow by 60,000 over the next 3 years ( a compound growth rate of 1.53%).
The edr.state study also shows further that population growth may begin to decline, death rate to climb, and household size begin to shrink after 2023. Overall, net migration is predicted to remain high which supports long term house prices.
Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.
Why the Demand for Florida Real Estate?
Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:
- one of the strongest state economies
- business-friendly state with fewer crippling regulations
- low Florida income taxes and business taxes
- greater square footage living
- economic concerns and debt in California, Illinois and Northeastern blue states
- buyers thinking ahead to new winter with the Florida warmth, sunshine, beaches and water, and year-round activity; no -40 or shoveling snow in Florida
- economic diversity increasing in the Sunshine state
- growing boom of recreation and travel
These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.
The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market
Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home. While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.
The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices. They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers.
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