Florida Housing Forecast 2020 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Housing Forecast 2020 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Real Estate Market 2020

In the wake of the fear of Corona Virus pandemic, are Americans poised to rush to Florida as a safer place to live?  This trend and one to increasing remote work might cause Florida house prices and condo prices to begin rising in earnest in June.

We’re not out of the Corona Virus shutdown yet, despite the fact businesses are reopening. Florida business has taken a big hit and some may not recover this year. However, if a vaccine and other Covid 19 treatments continue with success, it won’t be long before tourists return to the Sunshine State.

But Florida still has a lot going for it. Lower income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches makes this state a desirable place. Florida cities are often among the best cities to buy real estate. See all the stats below to compare to those in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

The Florida housing market had a tough month for sales but not so bad for prices. YoY, sales declined by about 5,000 units. April sales were similar to a month two years ago when Hurricane Irma rushed through the state.

Sales of single family homes in Florida dropped 41% from last year, and was down 50% for townhouses. Brad O’Connor of Florida Realtor’s Association says the stock market may be why people didn’t buy in Florida. This might be a factor for all housing market forecasts.

 

He says declines in demand and supply have kept price changes in check. He also believes initial Florida housing stats for May point to upward prices. Given that Florida GDP will likely take a big hit during April and May, these stats aren’t too bad.

Florida Realtors Association reported a 20.7 % drop year over year and a 36.5% fall in townhouse/condo sales.

Across Florida, the median price for single-family homes rose $15,530 to $275K YoY. It rose $5,000 since March.
The Florida Condo median price lifted 7.7% YoY to $209K. Sales in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota, Clearwater and St Petes were all up substantially.

The Corona Virus workplace shutdown affected all real estate markets in Florida, but Brad O’connor mentioned that most of the damage took place in the last two weeks of April.

It’s only now that businesses and real estate offices are opening up. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: How much will it deflate the market?

Disney World closing, Cruiselines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training cancelled, spring break vacation cancelled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is diminished.

Of course, the good news is regarding a couple of breakthroughs in a Covid 19 vaccine. If 2020’s housing market is subdued, it may allow some buyers in who otherwise wouldn’t have had a hope of buying. Make sure you check out the latest mortgage rates if you’re considering buying a house or condo.

President Trump’s $2.3 trillion dollar stimulus package looks like it is helping.  And Florida fared well during the pandemic (in terms of Covid 19 cases) and may have dodged an economic bullet.  However, with a lower income to debt ratio and sketchy employment picture, young Florida buyers may not be able to qualify for a mortgage.

It will generate funds for businesses to continue paying their employees and help revive banks, airlines, and hotels.  That will be vital for Florida.

Florida Realtor’s Brad O’Connor discusses the May housing market results.

Avoiding a Mortgage and Housing Disaster

Stimulus money could reduce the chance of a severe prolonged Florida recession and stock market crash. And we know the Florida housing market would also crash without it. 40% of buyers are millennials looking for homes in the affordable range for a mortgage. Florida’s homes are cheap enough that stimulus helps, whereas homes in California for instance are far out of the reach of wage earning millennials. It may help avoid another banking disaster nationwide.

 

Snowbirds, Millennials and investment condo purchasers were liking the Florida housing market previous to the Corona Virus surprise. They’re all expecting to be back next winter if a vaccine or treatment happens.  See the Florida housing report below.

Enjoy this report on real estate in Florida cities and contrast this report with the US housing trends.

 

Please do share this Report on Facebook, and mention it in your blog!

 

Florida Home Prices Rise

As mentioned, sales of single detached home dropped by about 5500 units.  If that becomes latent demand for May or June, it could add to home price growth.  The median home selling prices rose 3.9% to $265,000, while the average for condo townhouses was up 9.6% to $200,000.  Statewide condo inventory was down 11.7%.

 

April Single Detached Home Sales in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

 

Florida House Sales. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

Florida Home Prices. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

 

Pending Homes Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

New and Active House Listings

On the negative side, new house listings dropped a hefty 27.2%% year over year to only 24,093 houses available. Active listings fell 12.9%. Months of supply dropped 20% and the issue of low availability should likely cause prices to rise. Year to date, Florida home listings are down 15.6%.

Florida active home listings. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

New listings of homes between $150,000 and $200,000 dropped significantly in February, reflecting the disappearance of cheap housing in Florida. Above $200,000, single detached homes are more plentiful.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

Home Prices and Sales by City

Florida Cities (some of the best cities to buy real estate) which saw the highest growth in house prices include Daytona Beach, Walton Beach, Cape Coral Fort Myers, Naples, Jacksonville, Lakeland, and Sarasota and Bradenton. Biggest sales volume drops were seen in Fort Walton, Lakeland,  Miami Fort Lauderdale, Melbourne, Sarasota Bradenton, Vero Beach, Punta Gorda and Naples.

House Sales Florida

House sales in Florida April. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Florida Condo Sales and Prices

Overall statewide, condo prices rose 9.6% while sales grew 14.5%. Gainesville, Homosassa Springs, Delton/Daytona Beach, Sebring, and Miami Fort Lauderdale saw the largest price gains. Biggest gains in condo sales occurred in Crestview Fort Walton Beach, Delton Daytona Beach, Homosassa Springs, Sarasota Bradenton, Panama City, Punta Gorda, The Villages, and Sebastian Vero Beach.

Flordia Condos sales and prices

Florida Condos and Townhouse sales. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

Florida Condo Sales by City

Florida Condo Sales

Florida Condo Sales by City. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Florida Housing Stats 1st Quarter 2020

Both Condos and houses saw greatly increased prices in 1st quarter of 2020 vs 2019. Naples, Pensacola, and Panama city saw the biggest gains. Condo prices rose most in Jacksonville, Miami, Punta Gorda and Melbourne.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2020 and beyond.

 

Florida Real Estate Outlook part 2 | Will There be a Florida Housing Crash? | Florida Real Estate MarketWill House Prices Fall?Miami Housing Market | Tampa Real Estate MarketWhen is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Florida? | Where Can I Find a Good Florida Realtor? | Are House Prices Going to Fall? | Will Prices Drop in California? | Dallas Real EstateWill Mortgage Rates Drop? | Where Can I Get the Lowest Mortgages? | Forecast for the 2020 Housing Market? | Are we in a Housing Bubble?

 

22 years of experience as a content researcher, strategist and SEO expert for marketing agencies and his own company. Gord's investigation into housing markets, stock markets, and AI marketing strategy helps clients achieve market dominance. Some of Gord's blog posts have achieved half a million pageviews with over 7,000 social media shares, revealing Gord Collins special talents for building reach and impact. Visit the AI Marketing website for an introduction to the AI marketing era. Artificial Intelligence is lending extra benefit to the power of marketing software which is enhancing SEO, Copywriting and Sales. Gord offers a new brand of SEO services and to regain his reputation as a leading SEO expert. See his 2nd book which describes the powerful relationship between SEO and Content Strategy. Gord's passion is researching algorithms, trends, forecasts, and market statistics to establish clients at the top.

There are 3 comments for this article
  1. Anne at 1:47 am

    Things have been sliding in Ft Myers/ Naples area for the last 6 -9 months, and it’s continuing to drop in price, especially condos. The realtors seem to think if we pretend it’s not happening and says it’s hot, that it will be or get hot, not so .

  2. Raul at 2:14 pm

    The Doral market is already crashing. Homes bought for 850k are now selling for 650k. Homestead Is another place where people have paid 335k for a home but didn’t realize the high cost of taxes (average tax in Homestead Florida is 5k) in this city due to the new developers taxing a CDD TAX that will remain on your taxes to be paid over 30 years. Prepare yourself the market is going to drop in the next year there are signs already. January 2020 expect it to drop in 2021 not go up. People in Florida spend more than they make they want to live the wealthy life and eventually they won’t have a pot to piss in at the end for over paying on a property they can’t afford.

    • Gord Collins Author at 4:14 pm

      Raul, your property taxes are the same as most metros, and people are raving about the tax savings in moving to Florida. You can build cheap there. Looks like your area is going through some turbulence. The economy is excellent and we’d expect demand will grow from those can afford to live there.

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