Florida Housing Forecast 2022

Florida Real Estate Market Forecast

The forecast in Florida is typical of what’s happening in most housing markets in the US. However, a number of factors make the Sunshine State very attractive to Americans.  The migration to Miami and the Gulf Coast cities is notable and buyers are closing fast and paying cash.

What a difference a year makes. February’s sales numbers show a shocking change YoY, home prices in the Sunshine State rocketed to new levels.

What contributes to the positive housing market in Florida for home sellers is migration from other states, limited home inventories, and mortgage rates on the rise. Buyers have been eager to find a new home before rates climb much further.

The Fed announced intentions to raise the interest rates 5 or 6 times this year which is an aggressive signal for buyers. The end result is homes in Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Naples selling much faster at much higher prices.

Florida Realtors in their new monthly sales report showed the single-family median price rose 21.1% to $381.5K and condominium median price up 24.3% to $290K. Single-family homes statewide fell 1.2% to 23,661 units year-over-year, while condo and townhouse sales dropped 3.6% YoY to 10,975 units last month. New pending home sales were down in February too and Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor says we may see declining prices and sales eventually slow this.

2022 Florida Realtors President Christina Pappas, (Realtor with Keyes Family of Companies in Miami) said “Home prices continue to be impacted by this shortfall in inventory. When homes are available for sale, they’re going under contract very quickly.”

Median time to contract quickened from 21 days last February to only 12 days this year, and for condos time to contract reduced from 38 days to only 14 days last month. Interestingly, sales are still much higher than the historical average. There’s no doubt that continued high unemployment plus a lack of homes for sale is undermining demand across Florida as well. Borrowers will find it harder to qualify for loans, but those buyers may not have been able to afford anything but the most inexpensive houses and condos.

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It’s never a simple thing to compare to pandemic periods, and as the pandemic finally eases through the second quarter, the market will fully open to investors eager for a vacation to check out available homes in Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Boca Raton, Orlando, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Panama City and other beautiful Florida locations.

Rest assured that buyer interest from those in New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Toronto, Atlanta and Chicago will remain brisk.

Single Family House Sales

Florida housing market summary. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

February 2022’s housing sales stats show Florida reigns as one of the most desirable places in the US to live.  It has the most vibrant markets too now year round.  It compares to Texas, California, Arizona, and Nevada as one of the best US housing markets. Florida real estate remains in demand, due to its relatively low prices, low taxes, strong economy, and warn climate. Stats show strong immigration to the low tax states including Idaho, Arizona, Texas, and Montana.

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Florida closed housing sales History. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Fewer Florida houses are being sold in the lower price range, yet more sales are happening in the higher price ranges, particularly between $300k and $600k.

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House prices hit an all time high at $381,481 and there were more than 8,000 cash sales, up 15% from last February.

Single family house price history in Florida, USA. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.
Active inventory of houses for sale in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Gainesville, Lakeland, Pensacola and Panama City saw much bigger increases in sales in comparison to most other Florida cities which saw declines.

Housing prices city by city in Florida.
Housing prices city by city in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Condo Stats for February

Florida townhouse and condo sales stats Florida, USA. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Condo sales in Florida is downs 3.6% vs last February while condo prices rose 23.9% to a record median of $285,000.

Inventory across all price levels is down substantially including units above $1 million dollars.

Median condo prices rising in Florida.
Median condo prices rising in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

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All cities saw a marked one year price increase in Condo prices. Those in the Central north saw the bigges prices increases.  Cape Coral, Homosassa Springs, Lakeland, Ocala, Palm Bay and Panama City saw hefty increases in price.

Closed home sales city by city in Florida USA. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Is it a good time to buy in Florida?  Given the economic recovery, Florida’s great tax situation, strong, persistent demand, and attractiveness to retirees, it still is a good investment. Buyers are coming from as far away as California. As discussed in the housing market forecast report, US housing should cost 5.7% more by 2022, and Florida real estate will likely be on a similar path. Fall is a good season to buy and this might be a lull before prices really roar in early 2022.

Florida real estate is still one of the most desirable locations to live, regardless of politics and Covid 19 infections. The climate, low tax, increased entrepreneurialism and more keeps drawing real estate investors and home buyers from everywhere. Cities such as NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington and northeastern cities are where many buyers come from.

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The Allure of Florida Strong Despite Prices

Price is a good barometer of buyer preference and intent.

Florida’s gorgeous climate is a huge draw for most buyers of home here. While Florida was considered a dead end back 30 years ago for snowbirds and tourism workers in decades past, the state has diversified its economy from agriculture in the middle to tech in the south (See Miami real estate forecast. Much of the state’s housing market is quite affordable compared to other locations such as Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago.

Hot Topic for 2021/2022
Is Florida still the best state to move to?
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Florida has one of the hottest US housing market forecasts for 2021, 2022 and beyond, and predictions are that bidding wars will be common. Buyers from New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Toronto are eager to own a home in Tampa or Miami and other beautiful FL cities.

See the Tampa St Petes and Miami real estate reports.  As detailed in this epic report on Florida’s real estate scene, home prices will always rise against a lack of supply.  Add on the hope of the economic recovery in July or August, and the stage is set for rocketing home prices across the Sunshine state.  The price of lumber, land, and steel along with labor shortages are going to impinge on the Florida state housing market as well.

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Still, sellers should not sell their house fast, and rather sell strategically for a better price. Realtors check real estate marketing services to help you generate more leads.

Florida Realtors believed rising interest rates would moderate demand and prices, but I think it’s unlikely. The Fed has promised continuous low rates and said inflation is not an issue. There is pent up demand, low construction numbers and rising savings and wages to lay down on a Florida home.

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If buyers are buying houses and condos in Florida, it means they’re seeling in the North (Manhattan, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington, Baltimore, New Jersey, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, etc) to find single detached homes anywhere.  They’re looking for safety from Covid 19 and more room and nice weather to work in.

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The forecast for the next 3 months is stronger than normal, leading into a 6 month growth period of unusual intensity. The 5 year real estate market outlook for Florida looks promising. This should encourage buyers to pay more and sellers to demand more for hard to find houses.

Florida Population Growth Outlook

A study/prediction by http://edr.state.fl.us/ suggests Florida’s population will grow by 60,000 over the next 3 years ( a compound growth rate of 1.53%).

The edr.state study also shows further that population growth may begin to decline, death rate to climb, and household size begin to shrink after 2023. Overall, net migration is predicted to remain high which supports long term house prices.

House Prices by City in June 2021

Wondering which cities might offer the best value in 2021? House prices have increased the most in Destin/Fort Walton, Homosassa Springs, Naples, Sarasota Bradenton, Pensacola, Punta Gorda, Melbourne, Miami Fort Lauderdale, and Cape Coral.

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

  • low mortgage rates
  • low Florida taxes
  • people getting in before the boom and rocketing Florida prices
  • greater square footage living
  • economic concerns and debt in Northeastern states
  • more houses in the south vs apartments in the north
  • Covid 19 outbreaks continue among the stubbornly unvaccinated
  • buyers thinking ahead to new winter with the Florida warmth, sunshine, beaches and water, and year-round activity; no -40 or shoveling snow in Florida
  • economic diversity in the Sunshine state
  • coming boom of recreation and travel
  • pent up consumer demand returns in a wave
  • the reduction of work shutdowns

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

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The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home.  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

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The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers.

Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, as in all US housing markets, the forecast is a full return by summer of 2021.

Luxury Homes in South Florida

See more on the Miami real estate market and Tampa real estate market.

Tampa Bay Home Sales

In Tampa and Hillsborough County, the median listing home price in Tampa, FL rose 15.5% year over year to $350K. The median home sales price reached $340K. Days on market in Tampa, FL dropped slightly to 46 days.

In Miami Dade County, Miami Real Estate  see best June sales month ever as existing condo sales jumped 212.8% vs last June. Miami-Dade County total home sales surged 114.3% year-over-year in June 2021, from 1,893 sales to 4,057. Miami single-family house sales went up by 41.6%, from 1,089 to 1,542.  And existing condo sales in Miami grew 212.8%, from 804 to 2,515 units.

The big rise in sales is being attributed to pent-up demand, more U.S. individuals and companies moving to South Florida, and record-low mortgage rates.

See more on the Miami real estate market picture.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: What will happen with prices in 2021 if there is a vaccine and travel to Florida returns full tilt?

Disney World closing, Cruise lines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training canceled, spring break vacation canceled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is primed to return.

There are still challenges for homebuyers looking for affordable buying opportunities in 2021’s housing market.  A homebuyers tax credit, recovering economy and low mortgage rates should help.

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The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2022 and beyond.

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See more forecasts on the real estate housing market, and the latest home prices and sales trends for numerous major metros in California including San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento.  See stats on other cities, including Denver, Dallas, New York, Boston, Atlanta and in the Florida housing market in Miami and Tampa.  Visit linkedin if you’re seeking advanced level SEO and real estate marketing services.

Rising mortgage rates, inflation, reduced housing supply and high home prices threaten the markets, it appears 2002’s real estate scene will stay strong. Realtors may want to build their presence this year as house prices decline in 2023. Lower prices will bring plenty of homes onto the market and boost your opportunities.

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