Florida Housing Forecast 2020 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Housing Forecast 2020 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Real Estate Market

Florida’s real estate market marched forward to recovery, despite a looming Covid 19 pandemic spread in the state.  The sunshine state’s housing demand and home prices are affected by a state by state move away from high density housing to single detached homes or lower density housing.

June sales, prices and pending sales grew in June, which pay point to higher July real estate stats which will be released in several weeks time. Florida’s real estate markets have to get the thumbs up for the next 6 months. It appears the pandemic housing market slowdown has ended and a full recovery is in progress.

 

During this pandemic, Florida is still an attractive real estate market for buyers. Market experts suggest low mortgage rates are the key factors, yet demographics, Covid 19 evasion, pent up demand return, falling USD, and the reduction of work shutdowns might be the key factors driving the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

Active inventory is down about 27% which means future sales will be stifled and prices could rise strongly.  The new home construction sector is trying to help, with big demand now for new homes too, but active listings are a big concern for buyers wanting to buy a home in Florida.

 

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida still has a lot going for it. Lower income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches makes this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers).  While California cities are in freefall, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. See all the stats below to compare to those in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

Sales of single family homes in Florida dropped 41% from last year, and was down 50% for townhouses. Brad O’Connor of Florida Realtor’s Association says the stock market may be why people didn’t buy in Florida. This might be a factor for all housing market forecasts.

Florida Real Estate – Single Detached Home Sales in June. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association.

More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Brad O’Connor of the Florida Realtor’s Association speaks of the improving recovery of the Florida real estate market. Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, the market is waiting for a full return.

 

Across Florida, the median price for single-family homes rose $12,000 to $282K YoY or 4.4%. Median sales price is up $17,000 since last January before the pandemic.

Florida condo sales grew by about 2000 units in June, a 40% YoY improvement compared to May. The Florida Condo median price lifted $8,528 last month to $210,000 on average.  Sales in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota, Clearwater and St Petes were all up substantially.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: How much will that take away from the market, and what will happen with prices in 2021 if there is a vaccine and travel to Florida returns full tilt?

Disney World closing, Cruise lines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training cancelled, spring break vacation cancelled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is diminished.

Of course, the good news is regarding a couple of breakthroughs in a Covid 19 vaccine. If 2020’s housing market is subdued, it may allow some buyers in who otherwise wouldn’t have had a hope of buying. Make sure you check out the latest mortgage rates if you’re considering buying a house or condo.

President Trump’s $2.3 trillion dollar stimulus package looks like it did help.   Florida had fared well, until June when incredible numbers of infections occurred.  This will slow the market.

Avoiding a Mortgage and Housing Disaster

Stimulus money could reduce the chance of a severe prolonged Florida recession, stock market crash. and potentially a housing market crash.  40% of buyers are millennials looking for homes in the affordable range for a mortgage. Florida’s homes are cheap enough that stimulus helps, whereas homes in California for instance are far out of the reach of wage earning millennials. It may help avoid another banking disaster nationwide.

 

 

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Florida Home Prices Rise

The median home selling prices rose $12,000 to $282,000 or 4.4% YoY growth.  while the average for condo townhouses was up 9.6% to $200,000.  Statewide condo inventory was down 11.7%.

Florida June Median Home Prices

Home median prices June. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Closed Sales in June

Closed Sales June in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

 

Pending Home Sales Florida June. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

New and Active House Listings

On the positive side, new house listings rose by more than 7000 units over April’s totals.  That number as you can see below is still below last year’s totals by 8,.7%. Active listings fell 18%. Months of supply dropped 17.5% and the issue of low availability should likely cause prices to rise. Year to date, Florida home listings are down 16.2%.

June Florida new listings

Months of Housing Inventory

Housing Inventory in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

Home Prices and Sales by City

Florida Cities (some of the best cities to buy real estate) which saw the highest growth in house prices include Daytona Beach, Walton Beach, Cape Coral Fort Myers, Naples, Jacksonville, Lakeland, and Sarasota and Bradenton. Biggest sales volume drops were seen in Fort Walton, Lakeland,  Miami Fort Lauderdale, Melbourne, Sarasota Bradenton, Vero Beach, Punta Gorda and Naples.

Florida home sales by city.

Florida Condo Sales and Prices

Overall statewide, condo and townhouse prices rose 5.8% YoY and sales dropped 7.1%.  Gainesville, Homosassa Springs, Delton/Daytona Beach, Sebring, and Miami Fort Lauderdale saw the largest price gains. Biggest gains in condo sales occurred in Crestview Fort Walton Beach, Delton Daytona Beach, Homosassa Springs, Sarasota Bradenton, Panama City, Punta Gorda, The Villages, and Sebastian Vero Beach.

Florida Condo Sales Price Stats. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Florida Housing Stats 1st Quarter 2020

Both Condos and houses saw greatly increased prices during 1st quarter of 2020 vs 2019. It’s a worth reminder of where we were before the pandemic.  Naples, Pensacola, and Panama city saw the biggest gains. Condo prices rose most in Jacksonville, Miami, Punta Gorda and Melbourne.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors

The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2020 and beyond.

 

Florida Real Estate Outlook part 2 | Cities with Lowest House PricesWill There be a Florida Housing Crash? | Florida Real Estate MarketWill House Prices Fall?Miami Housing Market | Tampa Real Estate MarketWhen is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Florida? | Where Can I Find a Good Florida Realtor? | Are House Prices Going to Fall? | Will Prices Drop in California? | Dallas Real EstateWill Mortgage Rates Drop? | Where Can I Get the Lowest Mortgages? | Forecast for the 2020 Housing Market? | Gord Collins Linkedin | Gord Collins Facebook

 

22 years of experience as a content researcher, strategist and SEO expert for marketing agencies and his own company. Gord's investigation into housing markets, stock markets, and AI marketing strategy helps clients achieve market dominance. Some of Gord's blog posts have achieved half a million pageviews with over 7,000 social media shares, revealing Gord Collins special talents for building reach and impact. Visit the AI Marketing website for an introduction to the AI marketing era. Artificial Intelligence is lending extra benefit to the power of marketing software which is enhancing SEO, Copywriting and Sales. Gord offers a new brand of SEO services and to regain his reputation as a leading SEO expert. See his 2nd book which describes the powerful relationship between SEO and Content Strategy. Gord's passion is researching algorithms, trends, forecasts, and market statistics to establish clients at the top.

There are 3 comments for this article
  1. Anne at 1:47 am

    Things have been sliding in Ft Myers/ Naples area for the last 6 -9 months, and it’s continuing to drop in price, especially condos. The realtors seem to think if we pretend it’s not happening and says it’s hot, that it will be or get hot, not so .

  2. Raul at 2:14 pm

    The Doral market is already crashing. Homes bought for 850k are now selling for 650k. Homestead Is another place where people have paid 335k for a home but didn’t realize the high cost of taxes (average tax in Homestead Florida is 5k) in this city due to the new developers taxing a CDD TAX that will remain on your taxes to be paid over 30 years. Prepare yourself the market is going to drop in the next year there are signs already. January 2020 expect it to drop in 2021 not go up. People in Florida spend more than they make they want to live the wealthy life and eventually they won’t have a pot to piss in at the end for over paying on a property they can’t afford.

    • Gord Collins Author at 4:14 pm

      Raul, your property taxes are the same as most metros, and people are raving about the tax savings in moving to Florida. You can build cheap there. Looks like your area is going through some turbulence. The economy is excellent and we’d expect demand will grow from those can afford to live there.

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