Florida Housing Forecast 2021 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Housing Forecast 2021 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Real Estate Market

While much of the world and United States suffers through an extended Covid 19 pandemic, you wouldn’t think the Florida real estate market would be bursting at the seams.

Yet, sales and prices have been on a torrid pace for the last 5 months. Pandemic or not, a lot of home buyers are wanting to buy a home in Florida. And hot sales in other housing markets will free up more buyers with cash wanting to relocate in sunny, warm Florida.

As Florida Realtor’s Brad O’Connor says in the November Realtors report, “the strong and persistent level of demand seen throughout the state, coupled with worsening inventory shortages, continued to drive up home values in October.

Indeed, Florida house prices rose to a median price of $305,000 which is 15.6% higher than 12 months ago. And condo prices are up too. The statewide median price for condo-townhouses rose 159% to $221,000.

Growing sales and a dimishing supply of Florida homes for sale is expected to push prices even further higher. Home inventory is 39.4% less than last October and condo inventory declined by 11.8%.

New house listings have only climbed by 1.6% and only 3.4% for condos and townhouses.

What is driving Florida Home Sales?

Brad O’Connor believes the type of home being purchases is a factor, but most of the demand is from single family starter home sales. Mortgage rates are much lower than last year, down to record lows in the 2.8% area. Starter home sales suggests more millennials who are getting older, have some cash and are eager to buy.

The pandemic is no doubt a factor too, as new work at home workers and independent business owners seek to leave inner cities in the North (Manhattan, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, etc) to find single detached homes. They’re looking for safety from Covid 19 and more room and nice weather to work in.

It makes sense that the stress of indoor confinement would drive so many to seek more spacious accommodations. This trend should drive Airbnb and condo rentals in Florida as well. The pandemic itself if it continues into the spring should boost Florida real estate sales right through 2021.

Florida homes prices are very reasonable in comparison with Long Island, Boston, Washington, Hartford, and other pricey northeast cities. Buyers are receiving tremendous value for their purchase.

Growing demographic buyer changes, low mortgage rates, an improving Florida economy, along with the return of tourists, air flights, hotels, ocean cruises, beach activity, rentals, and restaurant and entertainment businesses should make Florida boom in 2021.

Record Home Prices

Florida House Price Timeline. Screenshot courtesy of FRED.

Is it a Florida Home Price Bubble?

If you’re considering buying a Florida house or condo, you will be paying considerably more. Is it a price bubble? Likely not, with the pandemic pushing more buyers into the Florida real estate market where they can buy a roomy home for a great price.

The Presidential election will likely serve to encourage speculation as well. If stimulus funds are delivered in February, along with the delivery of Covid 19 vaccinations, it’s easy to see huge inflation in home prices. The forecast for the next 3 months is stronger than normal, leading into a 6 month growth period of unusual intensity. This should encourage buyers to pay more and sellers to demand more for their hard to find houses.

Florida Housing Sales

Florida Home Sales Prices October 2020. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Florida Population Growth Outlook

A study/prediction by http://edr.state.fl.us/ suggests Florida’s population will grow by 60,000 over the next 3 years ( a compound growth rate of 1.53%).

The edr.state study also shows further that population growth may begin to decline, death rate to climb, and household size begin to shrink after 2023. Overall, net migration is predicted to remain high which supports long term house prices.

Home Prices by City

Wondering which cities might offer the best value in 2021? House prices have increased the most in Destin/Fort Walton, Homosassa Springs, Naples, Sarasota Bradenton, Pensacola, Punta Gorda, Melbourne, Miami Fort Lauderdale, and Cape Coral.

Florida Home Prices by City

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Condo prices increased the most in Cape Coral, Daytona Beach, Naples, Sarasota, St Petes/Tampa, Homosassa Springs, Panama City, Melbourne, Miami/Fort Lauderdale, and Lakeland/Winter Haven.

Florida Condo Prices by City

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Florida New Construction Starts

According to Dodge Analytics, housing starts are growing, but may not be able to match demand from home buyers.

They report total construction starts for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties totaled $904.1 million in August, which is 46% higher month over month and 8% higher than August 2019.

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Florida’s housing market continues to gain momentum and provide support for the state’s economy, even as we all remain vigilant in protecting our health, safeguarding our communities and trying to keep businesses going during the ongoing pandemic,” said 2020 Florida Realtors President Barry Grooms

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

  • low mortgage rates
  • low Florida taxes
  • people getting in before the boom and rocketing Florida prices
  • greater square footage living
  • economic concerns and debt in Northeastern states
  • more houses in the south vs apartments in the north
  • Covid 19 outbreaks are easing
  • cold winter and Covid depression is making buyers seek warmth, sunshine, beaches and water, and year-round activity; no -40 or shoveling snow in Florida
  • economic diversity in the Sunshine state
  • coming boom of recreation and travel
  • pent up consumer demand returns in a wave
  • falling USD value
  • the reduction of work shutdowns

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home.  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers (48% to 57%).

Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, as in all US housing markets, the forecast is a full return by summer of 2021.

 

Luxury Homes in South Florida

According to Mansion Global, South Florida’s luxury real estate market is hot. In Miami, luxury single-family home sales rocketed 76.7% YoY to 159 sales in September.  And luxury condo sales jumped 34.9% YoY to 85 units. In Miami, homes are selling 44% quicker than last year.

In Broward, high-end single-family home sales in Broward County surged 204.3% year-over-year to 143 sales in September, as existing luxury condo sales remained flat at 13.  In Palm Beach, single-family house sales jumped 72.1% compared to September 2019, and condo sales lept to 179 sales while high-end condo sales increased 110.7% to 59 transactions.

Tampa Bay Home Sales

In Tampa and Hillsborough County, active listings were down more than 40% in all four counties. Median prices hit $294,900, a rise of 15% from last year.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: What will happen with prices in 2021 if there is a vaccine and travel to Florida returns full tilt?

Disney World closing, Cruise lines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training canceled, spring break vacation canceled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is primed to return.

Of course, the good news is regarding a couple of breakthroughs in a Covid 19 vaccine. If 2020’s housing market is subdued, it may allow some buyers in who otherwise wouldn’t have had a hope of buying. Make sure you check out the latest mortgage rates if you’re considering buying a house or condo.

 

Covid 19 Curve Rising a Little

 

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New Pending Sales Rise (September)

Pending sales rising 31% in September tells us the demand may be brisk in November too despite falling listings.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

New Home Listings (September)

On the positive side, new house listings actually in the high and low price points fell strongly.  Overall house listings rose 12.1%, much higher than the 2% growth last month.   Active listings fell 37.4% in September (-35.5% in August). Months of house supply dropped 38.9% to 2.2 months.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Months of Housing Inventory in Florida

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

New Listings (September)

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Home Prices and Sales by City

Florida Cities (some of the best cities to buy real estate) which saw the highest growth in house prices include Crestview Fort Walton,  Deltona Daytona Beach, Panama City, Sebring and the Villages.  Home sales were strongest in Crestview Fort Walton, Jacksonville, Sarasota Bradenton, Naples, Palm Bay, Port St Lucie and Tallahassee.

 

Florida Housing Stats 3rd Quarter 2020

Closed sales of single-family homes statewide rose 13.7% to 89,562 units in 3Q 2020, year over year.  And closed sales of condo-townhouses grew by 13.5% compared to Q3 2019 to a new volume of  33,523 units.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2021 and beyond.

 

 

Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Miami, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Salt Lake City, Manhattan, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Tampa, Charlotte, Orlando, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu,  San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, PhiladelphiaSacramento, Washington, Atlanta, Myrtle Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Minneapolis, St Paul, Madison, Sioux City, Rapid City, Fargo, Green Bay, Rockford, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Oceanside, Riverside, Carlsbad, Las Vegas, Colorado Springs, Reno, and Charleston. For data on Canadian cities, see the Toronto housing report, and  Vancouver housing report.

 

Lowest Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Refinancing | Cities with Lowest House PricesWill There be a Florida Housing Crash? | Manhattan Real Estate | Florida Real Estate Outlook part 2 | Florida Real Estate MarketWill House Prices Fall?Miami Housing Market | Tampa Real Estate MarketWhen is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Florida?  Dallas Real EstateWill Mortgage Rates Drop? | Where Can I Get the Lowest Mortgages? | Forecast for the 2020 Housing Market? | Gord Collins Linkedin | Gord Collins Facebook

Housing Market Forecast – copyright Gord Collins

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There are 4 comments for this article
  1. Anne at 1:47 am

    Things have been sliding in Ft Myers/ Naples area for the last 6 -9 months, and it’s continuing to drop in price, especially condos. The realtors seem to think if we pretend it’s not happening and says it’s hot, that it will be or get hot, not so .

  2. Raul at 2:14 pm

    The Doral market is already crashing. Homes bought for 850k are now selling for 650k. Homestead Is another place where people have paid 335k for a home but didn’t realize the high cost of taxes (average tax in Homestead Florida is 5k) in this city due to the new developers taxing a CDD TAX that will remain on your taxes to be paid over 30 years. Prepare yourself the market is going to drop in the next year there are signs already. January 2020 expect it to drop in 2021 not go up. People in Florida spend more than they make they want to live the wealthy life and eventually they won’t have a pot to piss in at the end for over paying on a property they can’t afford.

    • Gord Collins Author at 4:14 pm

      Raul, your property taxes are the same as most metros, and people are raving about the tax savings in moving to Florida. You can build cheap there. Looks like your area is going through some turbulence. The economy is excellent and we’d expect demand will grow from those can afford to live there.

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