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California Housing Market Update Predictions
Average Home Prices in California Rising
California’s housing market in many ways mirrors other US housing markets, is subdued by a persistent lack of supply, affordability issues, buyer anxiety, hope for falling prices, and very high home prices.
The key factors are a lack of housing available for sale, along with an improving jobs report for California, however the continuing pandemic outbreak in the state is adding to uncertainty.
Although home prices are rising, a fear of a fall season Covid 19 pandemic could put a halt on buying in densely populated regions of Los Angeles and the Bay Area, and accelerate the big migration trend happening to rural towns and other states including Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
In June, California home prices sales jumped 42% over last month to 339,910 units sold. This is still down 12..8% from last June. Home sales fell by 12.8% YoY. Median home prices rose to a new record of $626,170 which is up sharply 6.5% over last month.
California Home Prices June 2020. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
California Real Estate Market Stats for June 2020
California Home Prices. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.
California Association of Realtors in its June housing sales report said Realtors were feeling optimistic but a lack of supply is impeding the California real estate market recovery.
In the greater Los Angeles region, single detached homes rose $22,000 to a new price of $553,000.
San Francisco Bay Area, home prices jumped $35,000 or 3.6% over last month to a new average price of $1 million.
In San Diego, single detached homes jumped $23,000 last month to a new average price of $678,000.
Active Listings Falling
For buyers with funds, active listings are on the rise. Active listings have plunged for a full year now in California.
Last month was the worst retraction with a further loss of 43.6%. It is the lack of listings that is shaping the health of the housing market and contributing to record real estate prices.
Active Listings California Timeline. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
Active listings by price. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
Housing Supply Dropped in All Regions. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
NAR said home prices rose 7.9% last year and Zillow believes home prices will further rise 7.3% this year. Cities with the highest price growth are Los Angeles, Tehama, Santa Barbara, Yuba, Merced, Santa Cruz and San Bernardino.
Predictions about California’s metro housing markets by CAR Realtors sees a balanced market with homeowners hanging onto their homes and buyers unable to afford to buy. Without good locations to move to, and high prices for what’s available means everyone is staying put and fewer pending sales. CAR believes this will subdue sales.
There’s plenty of housing bubble theories but a crash seems pretty far off with home equity strong and delinquency rates very low. This graphic of southern California home stats shows just how strong the drop in sales has been.
Mortgage Payment vs Home Price
Mortgage payments rose last month but are still well below last year’s levels.
Mortgage Payments. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
Best Performing Cities in California
Where to buy your next home in the Golden State? Homesnacks conducted an estimate based on about 5,000 population and growing, rising home prices, and within 20% of state price average. Here’s their best picks:
- Dos Palos
- Adelanto
- Calimesa
- Firebaugh
- San Pablo
- Lathrop
- Los Banos
- Arvin
- Lake Elsinore
- Perris
Realtors will need better strategies on how to get people to sell their homes.
If you’ve read the latest jobs report, and the US economic forecast, you can understand the transition all states are in, including California. Jobs are returning, but the best is still yet to come.
China trade tariffs and US business repatriation could stimulate California’s economy and encourage more home building. Many believe America First may not be good for California, New York, or Florida or other states that depend on International trade. And many multinationals are headquartered in California and New York City.
Now that we’re past 2 years, the pain will be much less and a US first business agenda will bolster the stock markets more and power up employment in California.
Zillow expects California home prices to rise only $2k from is $569,000 currently in March 2021. The average home rental in California is up to $2657 per month. Mortgage delinquency rate is very low at .6%.
Zillow Home Price History for California. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
Zillow house rental average price in California. Screenshot courtesy of Zillow.
California Home Price Growth 2017 to 2020 by County
| California County | Median Price June 2020 | Median Price May 2020 | Median Price 2017 | 3 year change |
| Alameda County | $976,000 | $955,000.00 | $834,500.00 | 14.5% |
| Butte County | $390,000 | $362,000.00 | $329,500.00 | 15.5% |
| Contra Costa County | $750,500 | $690,000.00 | $570,750.00 | 24.0% |
| Fresno County | $313,950 | $295,000.00 | $265,000.00 | 15.6% |
| Kern County | $275,000 | $270,000.00 | $220,000.00 | 20.0% |
| Los Angeles County | $610,260 | $546,930.00 | $581,000.00 | 4.8% |
| Madera County | $300,000 | $297,500.00 | $240,500.00 | 19.8% |
| Marin County | $1,490,000 | $1,500,000.00 | $1,015,000.00 | 31.9% |
| Merced County | $300,000 | $285,000.00 | $275,000.00 | 8.3% |
| Monterey County | $740,000 | $650,000.00 | $582,000.00 | 21.4% |
| Napa County | $725,000 | $672,500.00 | $635,000.00 | 12.4% |
| Nevada County | $433,750 | $410,000.00 | $400,000.00 | 7.8% |
| Orange County | $870,000 | $834,550.00 | $708,500.00 | 18.6% |
| Placer County | $515,000 | $515,000.00 | $485,000.00 | 5.8% |
| Riverside County | $450,000 | $434,480.00 | $380,000.00 | 15.6% |
| Sacramento County | $417,000 | $395,000.00 | $355,000.00 | 14.9% |
| San Bernardino | $325,000 | $320,000.00 | $329,750.00 | -1.5% |
| San Diego County | $678,000 | $655,000.00 | $550,000.00 | 18.9% |
| San Francisco County | $1,805,000 | $1,627,500.00 | $1,325,000.00 | 26.6% |
| San Joaquin County | $415,000 | $415,000.00 | $386,500.00 | 6.9% |
| San Luis Obispo County | $645,500 | $632,500.00 | $599,000.00 | 7.2% |
| San Mateo County | $1,735,000 | $1,650,000.00 | $1,250,000.00 | 28.0% |
| Santa Barbara County | $671,750 | $637,500.00 | $545,000.00 | 18.9% |
| Santa Clara County | $1,382,000 | $1,365,000.00 | $1,000,000.00 | 27.6% |
| Santa Cruz County | $905,000 | $850,000.00 | $727,000.00 | 19.7% |
| Shasta County | $295,000 | $297,000.00 | $244,500.00 | 17.1% |
| Solano County | $496,750 | $482,000.00 | $415,000.00 | 16.5% |
| Sonoma County | $708,800 | $675,000.00 | $595,000.00 | 16.1% |
| Stanislaus County | $355,000 | $350,000.00 | $300,050.00 | 15.5% |
| Tulane County | $270,000 | $255,250.00 | $230,000.00 | 14.8% |
| Ventura County | $700,000 | $681,250.00 | $575,000.00 | 17.9% |
| Yolo County | $475,000 | $443,000.00 | $447,500.00 | 5.8% |
| Yuba County | $328,950 | $320,000.00 | $298,250.00 | 21.3 |
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Housing Market Forecast – copyright Gord Collins
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