US Home Prices 2019 2020

US Home Prices 2019 2020

US Home Price Predictions

Home prices rose 5% year over year last November. And recent reports from NAR, Case Shiller, and Zillow suggest resale house prices will rise in most cities in 2019. This is despite a recent slowdown in sales, rise in listings, growing interest rates, and more new construction becoming available.

After the China Tariffs take effect, more business will return to the US and that will stimulate higher wages, employment and home buying. Corporations are said to be ready to buy back stock, and that could raise the DOW S&P NASDAQ to record levels. That will instill more confidence.

The wild cards are Powell’s higher interest rate obsession, Trump economic stimulus, Democrat blocking, and media fear mongering. The target is consumers because consumer confidence is the key. Recent turmoil has some wondering if a recession is imminent. But experts say no. No housing crash, no stock market crash, and they predict no recession.




Is this the best time to buy a home? Will buyers get a break later on in 2019 if they wait? Is this a buyers market? It just may be the right time as the forecast is a return of price growth after the current slowdown.

Can you assess a housing market without looking at:

  1. economic predictions,
  2. consumer confidence
  3. wages and employment
  4. GDP and trade deficits
  5. stock market predictions?

After the pre-tariff import rush, manufacturing was expected to plummet for at least a few months, but January’s manufacturing output has risen strongly.

Chart courtesy of Tradingeconomics

Employment confidence is very high (except government) and as wages grow, homebuyers will feel confident enough in buying a home.

December monthly change in employment and confidence.  Chart courtesy of BLS.gov




Check the health and predictions for major cities: Los AngelesNew YorkSeattleChicagoPhiladelphiaSan DiegoMiamiBostonBay AreaSacramento, and Atlanta. See forecasts for California housing and Florida housing markets.

Reuters polled a number of housing market analysts at the end of a weak month in home sales, and this is still what they believe going forward to 2019:

Screenshot courtesy of CNBC

Pressure Greater for a Resurgence of Home Prices

National Home Price index S&P – Chart courtesy of FRED




Experts look at the Case Shiller report on resale home prices for guidance. Their latest chart shows steady upward growth. So although December’s home prices flattened, the pressure is upward.  When you consider the latent demand for housing from Millennials in their family formation years, it would take a big economic shock to push home prices down.

They recently reported that national home prices grew 5.5% annual rate in September.  Their 20-City
Composite index rose 5.1% year-over-year.  Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. Las Vegas led the way with a 13.5% gain, San Francisco was up 9.9%, and Seattle rose 8.4%.

Adjusted Home price Forecast are anticipated to increase 3.9 percent and existing home sales are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent to 5.46 million homes. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5 percent due to higher expectations for inflationary pressure in the year ahead — Realtor.com Research

Freddie Mac Forecast

Freddie Mac points to higher mortgage rates until they throttle the economy in 2020. If the economic forecast is dire, then interest rates would fall. Higher rates would serve to raise home prices, if the economy hangs in there.

Zillow Home Prices

Zillow provides a helpful snapshot of the market health and average home values in October.

Screen Capture courtesy of Zillow




Forisk forecasts solid levels of home construction peaking in 2023 and sustained to 2027, although tailing due to satiated demand and rising interest rates.

From the chart below, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, building permits, housing starts, home sales, will rise slightly next year and significantly grow to higher levels in 2020. Home prices may rise another 10% by 2020 according to their forecast. Still a good time to look for houses for sale.




And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.”  That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.

Best Cities to Invest?

Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities to buy property.

For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?




Top Home Price Growth Trends

Price growth varies each quarter. These are the latest prices from Kiplinger. California cities come in as the least affordable in the nation. New York, Washington DC, Honolulu, and Seattle are right up there.

Rank City (updated Jan 2019) Price Rise over last year Sales Growth Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 8.41% 1.17% $750,000
2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 8.26% 1.26% $1,000,000
3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 7.36% 3.41% $417,000
4 Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA 7.18% 4.92% $305,000
5 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 6.90% 6.03% $605,000
6 Salt Lake City, UT 6.66% 4.67% $301,000
7 Portland-OR-Vancouver-WA 6.55% 5.02% $305,000
8 San Diego County, CA 6.47% 4.89% $530,000
9 Denver CO 6.41% 3.96% $360,000
10 Providence-RI Warwick, MA 6.31% 4.09% $246,000
11 Stockton-Lodi, CA 6.12% 4.01% $312,000
12 Tucson, AZ 6.10% 5.47% $179,000
13 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA 6.09% 6.32% $398,000
14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 5.94% 7.24% $240,000
15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5.93% 2.67% $190,000
16 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 5.77% 4.16% $155,000
17 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL. 5.69% 6.10% $205,000
18 Philadelphia, PA 5.54% 3.08% $190,000
19 Greensboro-High Point, NC 5.50% 3.56% $118,000
20 Bakersfield, CA 5.26% 4.49% $199,000
21 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 5.19% 5.35% $565,000
22 Richmond, VA 5.18% 2.57% $200,000
23 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 5.17% 6.22% $145,000
24 Provo-Orem, UT 5.16% 5.84% $250,500
25 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 5.06% 4.57% $240,000
26 Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 5.03% 3.61% $170,000
27 Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 5.00% 5.37% $192,000
28 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.98% 6.88% $276,000
29 Tulsa, OK 4.90% 4.01% $150,000
30 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 4.87% 3.11% $162,500
31 Nashville, TN 4.86% 4.41% $234,000
32 Tampa-St. Petes, FL 4.84% 5.10% $176,000
33 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 4.83% 3.14% $160,000
34 Spokane, WA 4.81% 3.95%
35 Jacksonville, FL 4.79% 7.03% $170,000
36 Boise City, ID 4.79% 5.28% $215,000
37 Colorado Springs, CO 4.77% 6.71% $260,000
38 Akron, OH 4.76% 1.90% $125,000
39 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH 4.75% 1.89% $75,000
40 Springfield, MA 4.74% 5.13% $195,000
41 Toledo, OH 4.72% 2.07% $106,000
42 Hartford, CT 4.68% 0.42% $201,000
43 Milwaukee, WI 4.65% 4.53% $192,000
44 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 4.64% 4.89% $146,000
45 Honolulu, HA 4.55% 3.76% $530,000
46 Virginia Beach-Norfolk,NC 4.44% 3.76% $215,000
47 New Haven-Milford, CT 4.39% 2.60% $117,000
48 Kansas City, MO KS 4.36% 2.66%
49 Charlotte, NC 4.32% 6.28% $138,000
50 Augusta-Richmond County, GA 4.28% 4.62% $147,000
51 Dayton, OH 4.25% 2.18% $115,000
52 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 4.23% 4.29% $131,000
53 Raleigh, NC 4.16% 7.55% $238,000
54 Pittsburgh, PA 4.13% 6.08% $125,000
55 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4.13% 5.09% $182,000
56 Minneapolis-St Paul, MN 4.08% 3.56% $235,000
57 Oklahoma City, OK 4.07% 4.18% $155,000
58 Houston, TX 4.01% 6.08% $170,000
59 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa. 3.99% 6.48% $425,000
60 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. 3.98% 4.17% $240,000
61 New Orleans-Metairie, LA 3.95% 5.94% $190,000
62 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 3.94% 4.02% $211,000
63 El Paso, TX 3.93% 2.85%
64 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA 3.92% 4.60% $375,000
65 Wichita, KS 3.89% 2.51%
66 Memphis, TN 3.80% 4.22% $137,700
67 Columbus, OH 3.78% 5.70% $170,000
68 Madison, WI. 3.75% 5.40% $245,000
69 Indianapolis, IN 3.72% 5.03% $114,450
70 Omaha, NB 3.70% 4.64% $175,000
71 Fresno, CA 3.65% 5.82% $233,000
72 Albuquerque, NM 3.62% 4.13% $129,000
73 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 3.57% 5.11% $118,000
74 Cleveland, OH 3.56% 4.69% $135,000
75 Austin-Round Rock, TX 3.50% 7.40% $251,000
76 St. Louis, Mo 3.46% 4.35% $155,000
77 Worcester, MA 3.45% 4.97% $225,000
78 Syracuse, NY 3.41% 2.55% $106,000
79 Columbia, SC 3.39% 3.56% $133,000
80 Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY 3.36% 2.08% $125,000
81 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3.29% 6.22% $170,000
82 Charleston, SC 3.27% 6.09% $238,000
83 Louisville, KY 3.24% 4.69% $165,000
84 Cincinnati, OH 3.18% 6.38% $150,000
85 Knoxville, TN 3.11% 6.27% $141,000
86 Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL 3.10% 8.23% $170,000
87 Rochester, NY 3.09% 6.27% $127,000
88 Allentown, PA 3.07% 3.00% $175,000
89 Little Rock, AK 2.97% 3.59% $140,000
90 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 2.97% 2.88% $238,000
91 Des Moines, IA 2.92% 4.32% $173,000
92 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 2.91% 5.41% $200,000
93 Baton Rouge, LA 2.87% 5.53% $166,000
94 Winston-Salem, NC 2.66% 5.08% $137,000
95 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 2.55% 8.95% $220,000
96 Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA 2.40% 6.62% $80,000
97 Jackson, MI 1.98% 9.44%
98 Chicago, IL 1.95% 2.27% $218,000
99 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 1.92% 2.56% $365,000
100 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 1.78% 3.51% $172,000
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com

US Real Estate Market to 2020

Please see the major metro market reports for 2019/2020 including Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco, Houston, Tampa, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle, and Philadelphia.




No Recession in 2019/2020

From a report in the Pacific Coast Business Times, Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast is quoted as saying that economic indicators do not point to a US recession this year or next.

Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. Some suggest the DOW and S&P could be heading to record levels by 2020. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame.  The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it’s not running on fumes, he said.

Schiepp said “We really don’t have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don’t see any recession — none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them.” Schniepp spoke to an audience at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village LA, during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.

The prognosis for housing markets in 2019 is positive and that means rising home prices.




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Is 2019 the right year to buy rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2019 including investing in real estate?

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