FaceBook META Stock Turbulence

The stock chart shows Facebook/META have enjoyed a good run and META stock buyers have enjoyed a 400% gain on their shares over the past 3 years, quite a growth.

The company’s growth in users, social media marketshare along with advertising market monopoly makes it one of the world’s premier profit generating entities — with expanding global reach and to emerging markets. As one of the Mag 7 premier stocks, a strong sense of confidence in it remains.

Yet lately, headwinds are forming and investors are wondering about the company’s forward earnings and price valuation.  The news is making them pull the sell switch. The stock is down 10% this year with a 3% drop this week alone. The question investors are trying to answer is “should I buy META Facebook stock.” It’s not an easy one to answer but you might be impressed with the ongoing strength of this Internet monopoly, its adoption of AI, and the fact that it continues to abandon Mark Zuckerberg’s failed pet projects (e.g, virtual reality).  It might still be a buy the dip moment for one of the stock market’s perennial best stocks to buy.  There may be better ai stocks to buy.

News of successful lawsuits against the company related to children’s social media addictions on Facebook and Instagram are giving everyone second thoughts about META’s profitability going forward. Children are META’s biggest audience and the addiction may be a big part of its profitability.

Those are small million dollar awards to the plaintiffs, but it sets a bellwether precedent condition for more courts to charge the company with wrongdoing.

Meta Platforms, Inc. is an American US headquartered tech company located in Menlo Park, California. Meta (META:NASD) owns and operates several prominent social media platforms and communication services, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Threads, Manus and Moltbook. 

Also noted by analysts is a worry about AI spending plans. If headcounts are being cut and a push to AI is announced by management, it would need to spend a great deal on AI.  Meta Platforms guided for $115 to $135 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a massive step up from the $21.4 billion spent in Q4 2025 alone.

According to a Motleyfool report, Meta’s fourth-quarter total expenses surged 40% year over year to $35.1 billion. That dramatic increase in costs is weighing on its operating margin (fourth-quarter operating margin was 41%, down from 48% in the year-ago period), causing a significant slowdown in earnings-per-share growth.

$115 billion build out for AI is a worry, and as we know about AI, is that profitability is often off in the future, not right now which could send some investors fleeing from the stock.

However, Meta Platforms’ advertising engine revenue was growing 24% year over year in Q4 2025 via 3.58 billion daily active users across its family of apps. It is one of the largest companies with a $1.5 trillion market cap and over $60 billion in annual net income.

However, their long term debt is pushing toward $64 billion.

Marketwatch analysts still have a strong buy rating on the stock.

Of all the big tech, MAG 7 stocks, investors may see META as the weakest. Money is being thrown at the “safe” MAG 7 stocks, but the others may be seen as preferable to those investors.  The outlook for social media is becoming muddier, stirred up by the rising use of AI search engines.

There are suggestions that people and investors have changed their views of Facebook and other social media platforms, and on whether using them is healthy.

What is Facebook’s Long Term Stock Price Forecast?

Expert forecasters, analysts and investors are starting to revise their long term view of the company still headed by founder Mark Zuckerberg.

Zuckerberg has taken the company’s business model and revenue source to the virtual reality dimension, perhaps revealing where his head is at personally. There were more large scale layoffs at the Reality Labs department. The Metaverse continues to look weaker than ever as the world prepares for an engineered recession.  The massive positioning and investment decision by Zuckerberg in virtual reality really missed the mark, so to speak.

Anti-Trust and Anti-Monopoly Questions

As governments try to revive the US economy and as globalism wanes, government regulators will look more closely at the FAANG monopolies including Facebook.

Facebook monopoly is a definite blessing for its investors, but the GOP is making anti trust anti monopoly noises. They had been investigating Google as well (see Alphabet stock price) but it won’t be long before Facebook is in their crosshairs again.

Facebook’s Profit Making Model

The future of social media is excellent and Facebook’s business model is excellent. They collect all the advertising money they make and share it with no one. Facebook dominates social media platform use by all age groups and haven’t even figured out how to maximize advertising revenue.

Increasingly, Facebook has positioned itself as the only social media channel. With Twitter and Linkedin struggling to remain relevant, Google+ disappearing, and Pinterest as a cottage pastime site, Facebook is left with a monopoly on social media. Facebook earns 93% (87% last year) of its revenue via mobile media and the might tell you why Google is emphasizing mobile now.

Facebook’s userbase continues to grow, from 300 million in the US now, forecast to reach 324 million in 2026. Add on Canadian users of near 30 million for North American totals.

Where does Facebook find its largest following?

Facebook championed over three billion monthly active users (MAU) as of April 2024. India is home to the world’s largest  Facebook audience, with 378 million users as of early 2024. Additionally, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil each had well over 100 million Facebook users. Furthermore, almost one fifth of  global Facebook users  were men aged between 25 and 34 years, and around 13 percent of users were women belonging to this age group.

Global Growth of Facebook

Worldwide, Facebook has entered the lives of more than 3 Billion people.

 

Global Revenue per user – Chart courtesy of StatistaThis rosy report should elevate its stock price and encourage buyers to get in on some good dividends in 2019. Estimates for earnings per share are $2.21.

How Facebook Thrives – Advertising Revenue

Finding a downside in the picture is difficult. No real competitors are presenting themselves and their global userbase should grow for many years. If you use Facebook, you know how much less intrusive its advertising is. They’ve got lots more opportunity to grow ad revenue via FB, Messenger or Instagram.

Ad revenue from Instagram is expected to make a big difference in future. Consider that Facebook will have to the two top platforms for young and older users. Monopoly is the goal and they’ve got it.

Facebook bought Whatsapp for $19 billion but it hasn’t earned much money so far. Worse, a number of rival SMS technologies put the success of whatsapp in question. Forbes believes in it, and says its ad revenue will be $5 billion per year by 2020. Userbase is only at 23 million so there’s plenty of potential if it can penetrate the North American business market.

Pic: whatsappusers-us

Together with Google, Facebook almost owns Internet advertising. It would be hard for any startup to get established against them.

Facebook’s advantage comes from the user identity and behavioral data they collect. The company has used that data to feed into artificial intelligence systems to predict customer behavior and thus show more relevant advertising to stimulate buying intent. This is an enormous advantage over smaller firms who know little about users online behavior.

A recent estimate by 44 stock analysts predicts a median estimate of a 27.5% increase in Facebook stock value. The range they projected was from a high of 275 down to a low of 149. So the experts are divided about Facebook’s future value. Long forecast has set a Facebook price of $151 in 2021.

Should You Buy Facebook Stock?

Investors are increasingly giving the thumbs down on META stock, however you should keep the channels ad revenue potential if the US and global economies surge again by 2027.

Check out the state of the stock market and the best stock picks, and be familiar with the DOW forecast, S&P forecast and NASDAQ forecast. Review the predictions for all of the FAANG stocks.  The predictions of some experts and media people are for bond price increases, right now with Fed Chair Powell pushing interest rates up.  The equity markets still have a long way to go. Don’t believe the pessimists.