Nvidia Stock Price Forecast
Nvidia’s stock was one of the superstar performers of the NASDAQ and S&P in 2024 up 178% year to date, and up 2293% in the last 5 years.
$10,000 invested during the Covid outbreak would be worth $229,300 right now. Well, that’s yesterday’s opportunity lost. But is NVDA’s stock still a buy heading into 2025? Will earnings be flat as some analysts are saying or is 2025 the beginning of soaring demand for advanced microchips?
Of late, the NVDA stock has been trading rangebound betweeen $130 and $140. Analysts are trying to get a grip on what’s happening and what the next price driver will be. As I mention in this post and the AMD stock post, is that marketing drives stock prices. It’s a lesson proven in CEO Jensen Huang’s speeches at big AI events.
This week, stock market experts were buzzing about his presentation at the CES 2025 event in Las Vegas and that it would jump the stock up. But just like his last speech, NVDA stumbled hard. Clearly, investors don’t like what they hear. He tried to reinterpret AI for the audience, restate its importance, but how is that new?
IMO, Nvidia’s marketing should be focused on the concerns of investors — that Nvidia is doing more to generate profit rather than announcing more products or deals for the long range. The theme in 2025 is to apply AI to business needs and consumer benefit — to put it into action and show that AI has not hit its peak, and that demand for chips will grow beyond 2025.
Any other messaging only tells investors that Nvidia is avoiding putting AI into action in new comprehensive ways to make profit, as the US economy undergoes a boom period in the next 5 years. All the other microchip companies could grab this opportunity of practical application now, and make Nvidia appear to be a company of false promise.
The feeling is that AI spending is not paying off for companies and companies are losing patience with the future promise.
Keynote at CES Show a Big Disappointment to Investors
Jensen Huang was the keynote speaker last night at the CES tech show in Las Vegas. Investors were hoping to hear profit boosting indications/reports from the event but it didn’t happen. It seems he missed the mark. For instance, while discussing a technical feature of their new system, he said “The amount of geometry that you saw was absolutely insane.” Yet investors can’t seem to relate to the geometry benefit.
Nvidia has a problem with delivering the right message to the right audience and is the investor audience the ones they should be focused on? There was apparently some disappointment that he didn’t introduce the next-generation GPUs they developing. All in all, he didn’t deliver what investors were interested in.
Huang announced Project DIGITS, a $3,000 desktop computer targeted at developers or gen AI enthusiasts who want to experiment with AI models at home.
New Products Falling on Deaf Ears
The essence of the new product announcements, which do look impressive, seems to be lost on the average investor, and today, his company paid for it with a substantial $12 drop in price. He announced a new generation of gaming chips, but the question is whether these announcements work dilute the highly-focused marketing and business performance message that ties Nvidia to ongoing profit performance? Time will tell. But a big theme online is the belief that after 2025, AI, hypscalers and others won’t need these chips so much. That’s only one major business negative Nvidia must address.
Jensen Huang delivered a positive update on the company’s Blackwell launch, introduced new products and outlined the path to “physical AI” in a speech at CES 2025. But Nvidia stock fell — IBD New release.
Investors let Jensen know what they felt about his keynote speech at CES, Las Vegas. NVDA dropped $12. Yes, it’s still Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world, and most investors won’t give up their stock that easily, but these are opportunities for competitors like AMD and Broadcom to seize new contact with disgruntled NVDA investors.
It seems like NVDA owns the AI chip market, and the others can’t get attention unless NVDA’s marketing misses the mark.
The Wrong Marketing Theme Could Hurt the Brand and NVDA Stock Performance.
While more new product releases and potential applications are interesting, it is cost efficiencies to hyperscalers to record sales forecasts that sings to investor’s ears. Are Jensen’s appearances becoming a negative? Will the next show not see a rise in stock price beforehand? The buzz is being muted and erased.
The end result of poor investor marketing is when investors turn to TSMC, Micron, AMD, Broadcom and other chipmakers. Invdia might have more to lose here, than gain with new product announcements. Jensen never seems to explain the financial benefit of the various products and whether they’re actually wanted. It has that ring of Google (self-driving vehicles), META (3D Goggles) and others who made stuff that few consumers are asking for.
A more bold approach is a full marketing and a dedicated conference to focus investor’s attention solely on revenue, 2025 marketplace domination, international sales, partner deals, and the strategy to dominate AI in business right now. If you’re a a wealthy NVDA investor, please leave a comment about your thoughts on the company’s priorities.
Even CNBC’s Jim Cramer was lost for words about the flat trend for Nvidi’s stock price. Interestingly, the marketing team and Huang of late, had taken their foot off the gas pedal in terms of product releases and promotional support. That “quiet period” was irking loyal investors who need to see Jensen communicate continuously that Nvidia is the real market leader and that some of this technology is ready to pay off. Investors are tiring of the promise which is becoming hollow. It needs to be applied, so continuous new product announcements aren’t what investors want to hear.
Nvidia is advertising much more of late.
Marketing failures can hurt the company’s brand and make attracting investors difficult going forward.
Promotion, Awareness, and Certainty Must be Marketed!
I don’t want to criticize Huang too much after the great marketing work he’s been doing the last few years, but when is it a good idea to have these flat periods, or to not address investors? Given institutional and retail investors are skittish, they might start selling their stock to buy Broadcom, Google, Apple, other AI chip stocks. The finance/investment media with all of its hungry competition can easily start to trash Nvidia and promote other AI chipmakers.
NVDA’s Value Proposition: The leading innovator and supplier (global dependence) of a high-performance artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator GPUs. Businesses including looking to build out AI infrastructure don’t have a lot of choice with next-to-no alternatives to Nvidia’s products. The AI Accelerator Chips Market is expected to grow at a steady rate of around 37.4% in the forecasted period (2023-2030) and 15% in 2025 alone.
Nvidia’s key customer group are hyperscalers who need the most energy-efficient chips possible because data centers consume hard to comprehend amounts of electricity. And given cryptocurrency infrastructure is also growing, we know efficient chips are important. Add that to the additional business services value Nvidia offers, and it’s concerning for any company that invests in other microchips.
Latest Views on Nvdia
NVIDIA financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 were stellar. Its revenues reached a record $35.1 billion, up 17% vs Q2 and that was a 94% surge compared to the same period last year. The Data Center segment contributing $30.8 billion in revenue, up 17% sequentially and 112% year-over-year.
Market analysts are optimistic about NVIDIA’s future growth, driven by its leadership in the AI hardware market. Projections suggest that NVIDIA’s revenue could climb to $195.4 billion in fiscal 2026, a 51% growt from fiscal 2025. And this improvement could by bolstered by the widespread adoption of NVIDIA’s Blackwell GPUs, which offer substantial performance enhancements for AI workloads.
NVDA is powering every industry from cryptocurrency to travel to eretail commerce. The productive gains increase every month, and it only builds this belief that this is the AI-powered business era. The resistance to it will weaken giving NVDA even more support, especially in the new de-regulated Trump economy.
Confidence in Jensen Huang and the Company
NVDA investors are still fully confident of this company and its leader. Jensen Huang showed how important marketing is in reaching all investors about AI technology and the hardware that will underpin the AI revolution in business. Ai is the key component of the new US economy featuring repatriation of industry, protective tariffs, energy demand, and the AI rewriting of everything. It’s a whitewash of the US economy just when it needs to grow.
Nvidia’s connection with Amazon (AWS Cloud), among other megatech companies shows it’s in the driver’s seat of the AI chip market, and ready to roll out AI-powered services when they’re ready. Amazon is up in trading too.
Despite the wall of worry and skittish retail and institutional investors, this stock continues to perform as one of the key stocks on the S&P and NASDAQ, leading the way into 2025. Of course, Americans and others aren’t crystal clear about the immediate road ahead.
It’s likely that this week’s price downdraft is due to President Trump’s tariff threats and the rise of trade wars. Despite Trump’s rhetoric, he says he will make deals with US’s best allies. It’s his way of garnering support for the great American revival.
Something to consider, long term, is that a booming US economy will power up American corporate profitability better than anything else on the planet. There is still some Democrat resentment and friction being generated to try to stop it all, but that will fade after the inauguration.
Barring any outrageous media events, the Santa Claus rally looks to be on still. Read up on the cause of year-end rallies, and you see the demand for stocks in late December. And this economy will be very different after January 20th. The lifting of unfair regulations and costs, tax reduction, and continued money from the chips act will power NVDA up further.
Investment Analysts Like NVDA
Zach’s states 5 reasons to stay bullish on chip stocks:
- Forward Estimates are Robust for Chip Stocks
- Semiconductor Margins and Gross Profits are High
- Major investor confidence
- Historical Seasonality
- Big Base Breakouts
The question right now, is this week’s pullback the best buying opportunity?
TipRanks Offers Their Broker Rating
What do you think? Is $200 too low for such a pivotal company? There’s been a lot of talking down of NVDA of late, but this is an innovative company which will rise to the challenge of creating market-leading hardware, and continuing to develop their near monopoly on advanced AI chips.
Zach’s broker/analysts rating are increasingly a strong buy rating.
The AI chip company has built an 80% share of the high-end AI chip market. The firm has secured a big portion of the cloud-based market for custom AI chips and protect against a growing number of companies pursuing cheaper alternative processors.
Grandview Research estimated the global AI market is valued at nearly USD $200 billion and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% from 2023 to 2030. And Gartner predicts global spending on AI software will 19.1% annually from $124 billion in 2022 to $297 billion in 2027. Generative AI (GenAI) software will spending could increase from 8% of that total in 2023 to 35% by 2027.
And in yet one more exciting market, NVIDIA is offering the new GeForce RTX™ SUPER desktop GPUs for supercharged generative AI in new AI laptops from every top manufacturer, and new NVIDIA RTX™ accelerated AI software and tools for both developers and consumers.
Nvidia as a company is now valued above $3.3 trillion. Microsoft, Google, and Facebook continue to buy Nvidia H100 chips even though they’re manufacturing their own chips. As you can see, they are the only stock to falter in the past 30 days, but this might be due to the fact the economy is in funky mood as Americans await the Trump 2.0 government inauguration.
NVIDIA Stock Price. Image courtesy of Google Finance.Nvidia, MicroChip Tech, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Texas Instrument, Intel and AMD have blossomed on the promise of the AI boom. It’s happening now due to a convergence of political, economic, and technology factors. Corporations are pouring money into AI software development including AI stock forecasting solutions for investors, after the successful launch of ChatGPT. And crypto miners love Nvidia’s chips.
Nvidia Chips are manufactured by Taiwan Semi Conductor whose stock you might want to invest in. It’s a lower price point so there’s potential. Morningstar’s Felix Lee reports that:
- TSM should consistently earn higher gross margins than competitors, thanks to its economies of scale and premium pricing justified by cutting-edge process technologies.
- The company wins when its customers compete to offer the most advanced processing systems using the latest process technologies.
- TSM will benefit from more semiconductor companies embracing the fabless business model and internet giants designing their own data center chips.
The fact that the other AI chipmakers aren’t doing as well tells you a lot about where all the money market funds ($6 to $8 trillion) will go when interest rates drop. All the big companies are diving into artificial intelligence software, systems and business opportunities. That massive force will drive Nvidia chip sales.
For corporations, AI and chips have more to do with labor savings, although they serve everything from recruiting apps to stock forecasting to cloud computing. The hope too on a practical basis, is that AI automation can replace millions of high paid and low paid workers, and solve the unsolvable skilled worker shortage. And there is hope that customer service and consumer satisfaction might grow.
Yet, AI can also be used to create opportunities and jobs. Politicians will decide which way that goes.
Current NVDA Stock Price
Nvidia’s chips are made by Taiwan Semiconductor which has also popped in price this year. Apple and AMD also buy their microchips. In 2024, the current battle between Taiwan and China, could threaten Nvidia’s supply chain. Combine that with a potential economic slide for the next 12 months, and we might want to be cautious about NVDA stock. If you’re a long term investor, confident in a status quo situation internationally, then NVDA still might be one of the best bets for the next 5 years.
Here are 7 Reasons why Nvidia is a leader in the AI chip competition:
- GPU Technology: NVIDIA pioneered the use of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for general-purpose computing, including AI. GPUs excel at parallel processing, which is crucial for deep learning algorithms that underpin many AI applications. NVIDIA’s GPUs are highly efficient and capable of handling large-scale data processing, making them ideal for training and deploying AI models.
- CUDA Architecture: NVIDIA developed CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture), a parallel computing platform and programming model. CUDA allows developers to harness the power of NVIDIA GPUs and accelerate AI and other computationally intensive workloads. Its wide adoption has contributed to NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI space.
- Deep Learning Frameworks: NVIDIA actively supports and collaborates with major deep learning frameworks like TensorFlow, PyTorch, and Caffe. They optimize these frameworks to run efficiently on their GPUs, enabling faster training and inference for AI models. NVIDIA’s involvement in the development and optimization of these frameworks has made it easier for researchers and developers to utilize AI technologies.
- Hardware Innovations: NVIDIA has continuously pushed the boundaries of hardware innovation. They introduced specialized hardware accelerators like Tensor Cores in their GPUs, which deliver dedicated matrix multiplication capabilities and significantly enhance AI performance. NVIDIA’s focus on developing specialized hardware for AI has led to the creation of powerful and efficient solutions for training and inference tasks.
- AI Ecosystem: NVIDIA has built a comprehensive ecosystem around AI. They provide software development kits (SDKs), libraries, and tools that streamline AI development and deployment. Their platform, NVIDIA AI Enterprise, offers solutions for AI infrastructure, data center management, and application deployment, catering to the needs of enterprises adopting AI technologies.
- AI Market Dominance: NVIDIA’s GPUs have become the de facto standard for AI research and implementation. Many organizations, including tech giants, research institutions, and startups, rely on NVIDIA’s hardware and software solutions for their AI initiatives. The widespread adoption of NVIDIA’s technology has solidified its position as a leader in the AI era.
- Continuous Innovation: NVIDIA’s commitment to innovation is evident in their ongoing research and development efforts. They continue to introduce new products and technologies tailored for AI workloads. For example, NVIDIA’s recent advancements include the launch of the Ampere architecture, which delivers significant performance improvements for AI tasks, and the introduction of the NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPU, designed specifically for AI and high-performance computing.
Of course, the company is well capable of introducing new innovations to gain more marketshare, which investors are well aware of.
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