Housing Metros with Crash Risk As the US moves toward…
Hottest Housing Markets 2021
Years pass and new cities begin to thrive, grow and create new living opportunities. Which might you choose for your new retirement or work at home life? Could it be Naples Florida depicted in the photo above, or Hilo Hawaii, or Davenport Iowa?
According to NAR, In July, 15 metro areas saw big home price rises including: Huntsville, Ala. (13.5%); Memphis, Tenn. (13.4%); Boise, Idaho (12.6%); Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash. (11.8%), Indianapolis, Ind. (10.8%), and Phoenix, Ariz. (10.2%). But real estate prices don’t always tell us what we need to know.
The Big Migration is On
Americans are leaving the big cities and looking to relocate where it’s less expensive, safer and with better availability of jobs and housing. The work at home revolution, tax avoidance, and pandemic fears are driving the migration to new cities.
It’s a pretty exciting time. Change creates opportunity. Your Covid crisis may turn out to be a key turning point in your life opening you up to good fortune in one of these amazing cities below. Still, you’ll want to be careful and choose your destination after much research. If you’re paying $4000 a month for a place in San Francisco or Manhattan, then this could be a great move for you.
Is it the Right Time for You to Make the Change?
Is it the right time to move to a new city? Do you have the funds to cross that bridge? Do you have your own business or work for an employer that is letting you relocate? If you work for Facebook, you might face some issues from Mark Zuckerberg who says you must earn less from him.
I think Facebook’s stock price tells you his company isn’t in dire straights. Good luck if you’re a FB employee. And enjoy not having that horrible commute or Bay Area rent prices.
Thriving in a New City
Some will thrive when they change locations. They may get a great job, or reduce their rent or cost of living dramatically. It’s like getting a big raise. But be careful. If you’re in California or New York, your employer might be in for a rough ride, perhaps staring at bankruptcy, which means you may not have a job.
But if you’re skilled, connected and active, you may find another position with a more stable company benefiting from current economic trends. If the economy recovers, the opportunity to move and thrive in one of these hot, desirable cities is worth a good look.
Does it have the culture, amenities, and sustainable economy you wish for? You should be certain, because when the pandemic ends, there will another round of changes. Will people move back to the cities?
Businesses need cheap labor and a lot of them are discovering that work at home can save them a lot of money. This fact supersedes the need to have employees crammed into an small downtown office.
As long as housing supply is thwarted by the NIMBYs, the market will never change. New construction will disappear from urban areas.
The November Election is the Key Issue
A lot depends on the upcoming Presidential Election. A Trump win ensures the American resurgence continues and middle America will grow further.
A Biden win likely means a recession, higher taxes, more housing regulation, amidst the flight from Covid infected urban regions. If Biden opens the borders as they suggest, then China imports would pour in again, thus killing jobs in the states that are doing well now.
So unless we know the election outcome, we really can’t be sure which cities will continue growing. California and New York are in a serious financial crisis, both democrat states. With out of site debt, businesses vacating, and no end to the Covid 19 threat, it’s hard to pick any communities in these states as “hot” or desirable. They are definitely in dark cloud territory.
However, you may feel different about where they’ll be in 2021 and beyond.
Hot Cities Reflect Economic and Social Trends
Why does the fastest growing housing markets have relevance? It has to do with where buyers are moving to, where new construction is taking place or where homes are being modified to accommodate more residents.
If you’re a worker researching the best cities to buy or rent in, knowing which cities truly have a future is important. And if you’re a Realtor considering moving to the cities where sales are growing, it’s important too.
In the last housing market report, NAR cited some cities with growth trends including Las Vegas, Seattle, San Jose, Denver and Los Angeles. Many of them are enjoying new residents from California and New York. But don’t feel sorry for New York and California real estate agents just yet. Properties still have to be sold when people move. The price may drop (but not often) but sales still happen and commissions get earned.
NAR Market Hotness Index
The National Association of Realtors actually publishes a list of the hottest cities in the US. They measure market hotness in a number of different ways:
- nielsen hh rank
- NAR hotness rank
- month to month
- year to year
- supply score
- demand score
- median days on market
- page views per property
- median listing price growth month to month
- median listing price growth year over year
Depending on what’s important to you, you can process their data to rank cities according to listing price growth, page views per listing, days on market, or demand score.
If you rank the hottest cities based solely on price, you’ll get a much different picture. The fastest rising home prices might not help you decide whether it’s the city for you.
NAR’s hotness score or rank might be the score some would choose, because it’s an overall rating of a city. Perhaps if you use several ranking criteria and prioritize them as you like, you’ll come to a better conclusion about which city you should move to.
NAR’s Hottest City Index
|City||Nielsen Hotness Rank||NAR Hotness Rank||Hotness Rank Change last 12 months||NAR Demand Score||NAR Median DOM||Change in Page Views per Property||NAR Median Listing Price|
|Naples-immokalee-marco island, fl||137||300||0||2.34||122.5||0.2||$467,050|
|Rocky mount, nc||274||300||3.01||115.5||$119,950|
|Florence-muscle shoals, al||263||299||-27||2.68||124||0.0||$178,578|
|Davenport-moline-rock island, ia-il||125||297||-232||5.69||392.5||0.1||$166,750|
|Lake charles, la||213||297||-2||0.00||85.5||-0.3||$219,550|
|El paso, tx||75||297||-5||2.01||89||0.4||$172,400|
|Hilton head island-bluffton-beaufort, sc||206||296||-19||9.70||105||-0.1||$429,050|
|Davenport-moline-rock island, ia-il||125||296||-197||12.71||203||-0.3||$149,950|
|Cape coral-fort myers, fl||73||296||-10||9.36||96||0.0||$299,950|
|Miami-fort lauderdale-west palm beach, fl||8||295||-3||7.02||119.5||0.7||$403,826|
Good luck with your decision on moving to one of these amazing cities, and others that might be right for you. Oh, and check out this list of cheapest housing markets, in case you just need to save money.
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