US Housing Market Predictions – Real Estate Market Forecast 2018 | Trends Outlook NAR Zillow Reports

Real Estate and Housing Forecast 2018 to 2020

April 18, 2018.  Your Epic report and forecast of the 2018/2019 US housing market offers facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends.

Please feel free to use this material within your own blogs and share this post on Linkedin and Facebook. It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who face a big decision about buying a home or condo in 2018.




A Spring Market Under Pressure

It’s an unusual spring market given the growing purchasing power of home buyers in low to mid market prices. It’s the lack of housing (few want to sell) combined with tough mortgage rules that are frustrating buyers. First time buyers are looking for a savior and wondering it’s a good time to buy anyway.

Despite prices, homes are selling. And more are being built. How much prices will rise, depends on where you live.  Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Miami, Seattle, New York, and Houston all have their own unique factors, and all driven by a wildly successful economy.

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales rose 3% in February. Nationally, 5.54 million units sold ending 2 months of declining sales. Housing inventory rose last month but is still down 8.1% from 12 months ago.  NAR won’t release its March sales report until April 23rd.

Trulia reports housing inventory has grown 3.3% yet starter homes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2012. What is available is expensive.

Housing inventory then remains the most influential and persistent factor affecting home prices. Despite this, the media and some politicians blame speculation, building costs, interest rates, cost of living, and mortgage rules. When the economy is good people want homes. Construction is strong but can’t keep up. Simple rule of supply vs demand is driving home prices.

Millennials still hopeful to buy a home in 2018

Looking for housing market predictions? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.

This completely updated EPIC United States Housing Report has market updates and predictions for 2018 to 2020, and other data to 2026.

NAR’s VP of research Paul Bishop, believes sales will be flat for 2018.

One of the biggest challenges is going to be in certain high-cost parts of the country where they have high home prices, relatively high property taxes or high state income taxes, then that’s ultimately going to make the cost of owning a home more expensive.

In addition, renters may lose the incentive to buy a home in high-cost areas if they can’t use the mortgage interest deduction or the ability to deduct some of those other housing-related costs from their taxes. It’s focused mostly on the higher cost areas. It’s certainly something that everyone will be monitoring and how the housing market reacts in 2018 and 2019  — from a news release on DSnews.com.




In this post, you’ll discover the hottest city markets, zip codes, get economic, employment, finance, and housing projections to understand the key fundamentals driving home buying, rental investment, home construction, and the real estate markets in 2018/2019 to 2026. Read thoroughly if you’re considering buying a house this year.

Still Struggling with the  Idea of Buying vs Renting?

This post on buying vs renting is a good read, and review the US rental market report for more insight.

What’s the story for summer of 2018? It has to be Texas and Michigan, however the overall picture is of a very good spring for the housing market nationwide and going forward to 2026. Population growth in San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Phoenix continues strong.

The Complete Picture for 2018

Ready to choose your realtor and buy a house or condo this year? The outlook is really rosy! And how about investing in a rental income property for sustained passive income? This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.

Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing market are positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.

Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets: Latest Posts: Sacramento Housing MarketSan Francisco Housing Market | | Boston Real Estate Market 2018 | Florida Housing Forecast 2018 | Miami Housing Market |  Los Angeles Real Estate Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast  | Houston Real Estate Forecast | Seattle Housing Forecast

Apartment Rental Housing Market 2018

Are you considering buying homes for sale as an income investment?  With Apartment rent prices holding strong in 2018, it’s a solid investment strategy. Take another look at the US rental housing market, apartment rental prices, and the buy vs rent question and buying to let others pay your rent is just plain smart.

This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).

Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.

Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.

NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market

Housing Indicator Realtor.com® 2018 Forecast
Home price appreciation 3.2% increase
Mortgage rate Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end
Existing home sales 2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing
Housing starts 3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses
New home sales Growth of 7%
Home ownership rate Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally

Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the jobs picture, wage growth, investment, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.

The resistance to housing development is slowing. Conservatives are giving up amidst intense pressure by those facing outrageous housing shortages and skyrocketing rental prices.



Housing Shortages Won’t Ease

Although January’s sales were disappointing, it’s due to the severe shortage of housing. Demand is there and you’ll be competing against a hoard of buyers in 2018.  Corelogic expects 2018’s home prices will grow 4.3% by next December.  NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices this year. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.

The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’s tumbled. Listings fell dramatically in cental California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.

Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.

The US Economy 2018/2019

These stats from Trading Economics show positive fundamentals that will drive growth in the housing market, and in turn will bolster the economy, since new household consumer spending and housing investment is a key driver of the economy.

The tax cuts should help although the Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden stock market volatility.  Although some disincentives are present for home buying in certain price ranges, that will help keep the market balanced for 2018.

Home prices should begin rising again this late spring in FloridaNew York , Boston, San DiegoHouston, MiamiSeattle, Bay Area and the rest of  overheated California.

Buyers and sellers will enjoy the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture!

Scroll down to see the stats, video, and charts on the strongest cities where you might buy or invest. And when is the best time to buy a house?

Sharing is Good! Share the Insight with others on FB and Linkedin

A brief overview of January 2018 from NAR.

Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party

Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.



Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers,  all of whom are looking for houses for sale.

New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018

New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.

The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.

The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.

Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies

Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise.  With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale. This fall, new home sales have been brisk as reported by the Commerce Department.

Mortgage Rates on the Rise

15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.

Houses For Sale – Should You Buy or Sell in 2018?

The forecasts and predictions for housing markets in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, New York, Miami, Houston, Seattle, and San Diego etc. all suggest better times ahead.

Is a housing market crash or a stock market crash possible? It’s a worry of investors. See the post on the best cities to invest in real estate. Where can you find houses for sale with the best upside potential as a high return property investment?

Housing Experts Predictions and a Lot More

Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac.  The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.

Should buy or sell? See the specific market updates and predictions here: Los Angeles Real Estate forecast, San Francisco Bay Area forecast, New York Real Estate forecast, Boston Real Estate forecast, San Diego Real Estate forecast, Houston Texas Housing forecast, Seattle Real Estate forecast and the Miami Real Estate forecast. Bookmark this page for future monthly updates.




The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy.  Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.

Home Sales Expect to Rise Nationally

Freddie Mac Predicts strong sales driven by moderating prices nationally.

And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.

Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer

According to NAR’s latest report, San Francisco is again the hottest city, taking back the number one spot from San Jose. The hottest small city is Vallejo California, enjoying a spillover from the Bay Area market.  Investors and buyers will be hard pressed to find buying opportunities are.

Silicon Valley prices will pressure businesses to look to cheaper cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas, Houston, Austin, etc in 2018/2019.

Hottest Cities for Investment Value

This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income. Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.





20 Hottest Housing Markets, January 2018 (Realtor.com) Rank (December) Rank Change Current Home Prices
San Francisco, CA 2 1 $1,249,000
San Jose, CA 1 -1 $875,000
Vallejo, CA 3 0 $390,000
Colorado Springs, CO 4 0 $270,000
Midland, TX 18 13 $265,000
San Diego, CA 6 0 $590,000
Santa Rosa, CA 7 1 $310,000
Sacramento, CA 8 2 $310,000
Denver, CO 11 2 $400,000
Stockton, CA 5 -5 $289,000
Modesto, CA 10 -1 $295,000
Dallas, TX 14 2 $360,000
Fresno, CA 12 -1 $205,000
Los Angeles, CA 16 2 $759,000
Columbus, OH 9 -6 $140,000
Chico, CA 29 13 $349,000
Oxnard, CA 21 4 $505,000
Santa Cruz, CA 27 9 $909,000
Detroit, MI 19 0 $349,000
Boise City, ID 26 6




Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For property investors or buyers with minimal cash, the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modesto, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale. As usual, California and Texas lead the way, however Michigan is looking good with the President’s intention to bring the auto industry and related jobs back to the US.

In some markets such as Californiahome prices have leveled off a little from their relentless climb. There is a slight risk of a burst housing bubble. Outside of major city markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.

Here Panelists from the Urban Land Institution discusses 2017 and the next two year outlook:




Here’s 8 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:

  1. home prices are appreciating and it’s a safe investment over the long term
  2. millennials need a home to raise their families
  3. rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
  4. flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
  5. real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
  6. the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
  7. foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
  8. bankrupt buyers are over their 7 year prohibition from the last recession and they can buy again.

Latest real estate market reports:

There are more renters now than in the last 30 years.

US homes are at their highest value ever

Foreign buyers buying record number of properties

Housing starts more than expected but not enough to fill demand

New Houses for sale dropped 3.4% in August

Resale houses for sale drops in August

How high can prices for houses for sale go in Southern California?

Read on to learn more about the economic fundamentals that suppport your purchase of real estate:

Buying and Selling — Is This the Right Time?

Are you selling your home? Speculation of a housing crash in Miami, State of FloridaLos Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, San Diego, San Jose, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets has more people listing their house or condo. Yet, the market is healthy, so there’s no emergency. Prices are stable so you won’t get much more by waiting.

Check out these other posts for homebuyers, investors, and realtors:

How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | Student Housing Investment | 10 Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price | Home Sellers Pricing Strategy | Better House Market Evaluation

Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2018 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month to 2024. The building is resuming now that the hurricanes and forest fires are over.

Will it be enough to support the economy? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units per month is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.

What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.

From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King

Will Los Angeles Lead the Nation in 2017 in Real Estate?

Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco.  The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at.  Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, and New York  have a promising outlook too.

Short list of positive factors to bolster US Housing Market :

  1. moderately rising mortgage rates
  2. president Trump’s new tax plan
  3. low risk of a housing bubble / crash for most cities
  4. millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
  5. a trend to government deregulation
  6. labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
  7. the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history

Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc.  Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead. Looking to put your house up for sale in 2018? Find a Realtor now.

Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics

These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.

 

Sharing is Good for your Social Health! 

Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!

Expert Predictions – US Housing 

1.  Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.

These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%.  — BusinessWire

2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.

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Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise

It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.




Car Insurance Quotes: Are you looking to save money for a down payment, save money with the lowest car insurance, find the lowest mortgage rate, or get a free market evaluation? Are you a realtor looking for US real estate leads?

 

If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crashHouse Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.

FRED – Home Prices

US Mortgage Rate Trends

US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.

mortgage-rates-trend

US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024

According to BLS the job outlook is positive. Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with 226,000 more than last year, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Residential building construction trended up by 5,000 jobs. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.

National Employment Growth Employment Growth Predictions, 2014–24 Median annual wage, 2014
2014 2024 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 150,539,000 160,328,000 9,788,900 6.5 $35,540

Job Growth by Occupation to 2026

2016 National Employment Matrix title and code (Chart data courtesy of BLS
Employment Change, 2016–26
Median annual wage 2016
2016 2026 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 156,063.80 167,582.30 11,518.60 7.4 $37,040
Personal care aides 2,016.10 2,793.80 777.6 38.6 $21,920
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 3,452.20 4,032.10 579.9 16.8 $19,440
Registered nurses 2,955.20 3,393.20 438.1 14.8 $68,450
Home health aides 911.5 1,342.70 431.2 47.3 $22,600
Software developers, applications 831.3 1,086.60 255.4 30.7 $100,080
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,384.60 2,621.20 236.5 9.9 $24,190
General and operations managers 2,263.10 2,468.30 205.2 9.1 $99,310
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 2,628.40 2,828.10 199.7 7.6 $25,980
Medical assistants 634.4 818.4 183.9 29 $31,540
Waiters and waitresses 2,600.50 2,783.00 182.5 7 $19,990
Nursing assistants 1,510.30 1,683.70 173.4 11.5 $26,590
Construction laborers 1,216.70 1,367.10 150.4 12.4 $33,430
Cooks, restaurant 1,231.90 1,377.20 145.3 11.8 $24,140
Accountants and auditors 1,397.70 1,537.60 139.9 10 $68,150
Market research analysts and marketing specialists 595.4 733.7 138.3 23.2 $62,560
Customer service representatives 2,784.50 2,920.80 136.3 4.9 $32,300
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers 1,197.90 1,333.10 135.2 11.3 $26,320
Medical secretaries 574.2 703.2 129 22.5 $33,730
Management analysts 806.4 921.6 115.2 14.3 $81,330
Maintenance and repair workers, general 1,432.60 1,545.10 112.5 7.9 $36,940
Teacher assistants 1,308.10 1,417.60 109.5 8.4 $25,410
Financial managers 580.4 689 108.6 18.7 $121,750
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 1,871.70 1,980.10 108.4 5.8 $41,340
Elementary school teachers, except special education 1,410.90 1,514.90 104.1 7.4 $55,800
Stock clerks and order fillers 2,008.60 2,109.60 100.9 5 $23,840
Teachers and instructors, all other 993.9 1,091.80 98 9.9 $30,110
Receptionists and information clerks 1,053.70 1,149.20 95.5 9.1 $27,920
Sales representatives, services, all other 983 1,077.90 94.9 9.7 $52,490
Business operations specialists, all other 1,023.90 1,114.30 90.3 8.8 $69,040
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 724.5 813.4 88.9 12.3 $44,090

US Housing Starts to 2024

New Housing starts and predictions to year 2024

This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.

 Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

 

30 year and 15 Year Mortgage rates Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

Housing and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts 928 1,001 1,107 1,177 1,204 1,246 1,299
Single Family 620 647 712 784 842 900 962
Multifamily 308 355 395 393 362 346 337
New Single Family Sales 430 440 503 561 610 647 693
Existing Single-Family Home Sales 4,475 4,338 4,627 4,828 4,978 5,029 5,119
Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate 0.13% 0.13% 0.38% 0.63% 1.13% 1.88% 2.38%
90 day T Bill Rate 0.06% 0.03% 0.05% 0.32% 0.96% 1.71% 2.22%
Treasury Yields:
One Year Maturity 0.13% 0.12% 0.32% 0.61% 1.20% 2.41% 2.70%
Ten Year Maturity 2.35% 2.54% 2.14% 1.84% 2.38% 2.82% 3.22%
Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages 3.98% 4.17% 3.85% 3.65% 4.10% 4.54% 4.96%
ARMs 2.88% 3.17% 2.94% 2.87% 3.18% 3.62% 4.04%
Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.26% 3.51% 4.15% 4.98% 5.48%
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual

Chart stats courtesy of Nahb.com

Multifamily Home Starts - Millennial Buying Forecast

Save Money on Your Car Insurance

Saving on car might even cut your home insurance and give you more money for your home downpayment. Check now for the lowest quotes for car insurance Los Angeles, car insurance Boston, auto insurance San Francisco, auto insurance Denver, car insurance Toronto, and car insurance Chicago.

New Home Construction Prediction - Home Resales

Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.

f4 Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.

Existing Home Sales to 2020 - Prediction to 2020 Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Apartment Rental Forecast

Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.

Chart courtesy of RealPage

Cities with the most apartment construction include Dallas, Houston and Austin, reflecting Texas strong recovery. For more information, see this post on the best cities to buy real estate and best cities to live in and with the best job outlook.

Rental City Markets with Top Growth

Yardi released its winter national outlook report and forecasts a 2.5% increase.

There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years.

What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?

Are you a full time realtor looking to grow your prospects and leads?  Full service digital marketing is a bargain when it’s done well.   What’s the forecast and trends for the real estate sales in your region? If you’re in Vancouver, Toronto, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear. But will you get your slice of that pie? Relying on real estate lead generation companies is another way you can go, however you have to pay forever and it’s questionable whether their leads are high quality.

My realtor marketing programs let you leverage the full mls listings with a powerful rets idx website, and capture more leads.  I’ve enjoyed serving clients in many housing markets including Toronto, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Montreal, New York, San Diego, Los Angeles, Florida, and San Francisco California.

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Housing Market Predictions 2018: Ideal climate for best real estate investing.

Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including New YorkLos Angeles, Palm Beach, Miami, For Lauderdale, Orlando, Boca Raton, Wellington, Delray Beach, Boyton Beach, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa,  Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, and other cities in the states of Florida, Texas, California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, New Mexico, Lousiana, Alabama, Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2018

April 5, 2018.  The February TREB report isn’t hugely informative, however it does reiterate the downward housing market in Toronto.  The Toronto housing market shrank 39% in March 2018 compared to March of 2017.

Strangely, home prices rose 2.2% vs February, so are we seeing the beginning of the turnaround?  Hope isn’t enough in a repressive market.  Change is needed and it looks like the factors will align this summer.

Although news reports suggest the market is stabilizing, there doesn’t seem to be a bottom in sight yet for luxury homes. They took a precipitous fall this winter. Those who didn’t sell last spring and fall may have been feeling sick all winter long.

Time to Prepare to Sell Your Home or Condo?

The monthly stats below and trends seem to be predicting this may be the best time to sell your home. I’ve predicted a boom after the election, and if we improve our trade agreement with the US, GTA home prices and the Canadian dollar should jump.




Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices may plummet further in February and March only to begin a strong rise in April. Why? The election in 4 months and the NAFTA fears will have abated.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

Share the Toronto Real Estate Market forecast on FB or Linkedin.

Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

Share this Post with them!




New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Share this detailed monthly home prices report with your friends.



Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Houses for Sale in the Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moving to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.

 

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Sacramento Housing Predictions | Current Market Update and Forecast for 2018 2019

Sacramento Housing Market in 2018

Is 2018/2019 looking strong for the Sacramento housing market? Consensus is yes. It may be hurtling at top-speed toward peak San Franciscification as one report has it.

The US and California economies look good and with President Trump pushing for fair trade agreements, it can only produce more GDP growth, upward wage pressures and further reawakening of the American dream, long since abandoned in the last 11 years.

And even with NASDAQ and corporate tech threatened, Silicon Valley is still the lightning rod of the American revival.



Yet, there are other ways to view the Bay area outlook.  Are peristent regulations, interest rates, or the natural tail end of the housing cycle harbingers of doom? Could Sacramento’s market collapse in a larger national or California housing crash?

Experts are torn in their predictions because there are so many conflicting factors affecting all US housing markets from Los Angeles and San Francisco to Boston and Florida. The rising prices are the result of higher demand and low housing availability almost everywhere.

Sacramento Riverboat Cruises

Not in My Backyard Sentiment is Strong

And California is where the housing crisis is worst. Residents don’t want the inflation, immigration, higher taxes, congestion, pollution, water shortages, and crime that new developments might bring.

In fact a report in the San Jose Mercury News suggests California politicians are failing to approve housing development initiatives. That translates to higher home prices and apartment rental prices for 2018/2019 and beyond.

Relentless Growth in Housing

Some suggest these nationwide trends will drive all markets from 2018 to 2020 — the demand in Sacramento County was just delayed. Is Sacramento worth it? It seems the lower prices is all that matters to most, however this area has a warm charm and excellent climate that many residents could never think of letting go of.




Yuba City and Sutter County Real Estate

The desperation of Sacramento residents is pushing them north to Yuba City and Sutter County to find bargain houses for sale.

See the Yuba City/Sutter County real estate update provided by Michele Swift. You’ll see all the local market details and comparisons with Sacramento.

Lifestyle factors, lack of availability, and affordability issues will drive home sales in Yuba City, Sutter County and other towns outside of Sacramento, and it’s worth a look up north.

Buyers from San Francisco and the Bay Area are still eagerly checking out Sacramento for bargains themselves. Realtor.com reports only 2770 homes are for sale on the MLS in Sacramento, a county of 2.4 million people.

Sac was the fastest growing city in the nation last year with a growth rate of 1.4% which accounts to a whopping 33,000 new residents.

Zillow reports that 89% of homes in Sacramento increased in value whereas only 7.4% of homes decreased in value. The monthly rent index grew 8.2% in the last year showing rental income property investment and speculation may be adding to the price pressure. For renters, who seek relief from $4,000+ rents in San Francisco, the $1500 price tag in Sacramento is alluring.

Sacramento’s Affordable Homes Draw

The current average home price in the city is $323,000 while Elk Grove and Roseville are priced at averages of $421,000 and $438,000 respectively.

To someone cashing out of the market in San Francisco, even these rising prices are very attractive.


pic: sacramentohousingstats pic courtesy of Zillow.com

This excellent chart agove from Zillow reveals exceptional price growth in Citrus Heights, Elk Grove, Fair Oaks, Florin, Orangevale, and Sacramento. El Dorado Hills and Rocklin recorded the lowest rates of price growth.

Realtor.com rated Sacramento as the 5th hottest housing market in the nation in February 2018, up from 8th spot in January. 14 of the top 20 were California cities. And the forecast for the state of California remains hot, including San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Los Angeles.

A report in the Mercury news shows demand for homes in Sacramento is coming from the Bay Area. One estimate is that 120,000 Sacramento residents work in the Bay Area. This makes this new mega region very attractive for all sorts of innovative living and working solutions.

“Each year, nearly 20,000 Bay Area residents are resettling in cities stretching from Davis to Sacramento and further east to the Sierra foothills, according to census data analyzed by the Greater Sacramento Economic Council.” – San Jose Mercury News




Home Prices 2017 in Sacramento County

This chart of home prices in Sacramento neighbourhoods, courtesy of Trulia, indicates those with the most intense demand from buyers. Take not of those in bold font below that have experienced the strongest price growth. Ask your realtor what are the keys to this jump in prices.

Sacramento Neighborhood Sales Price Year over Year Change
Poverty Ridge $377,400.00 -35.4%
East Sacramento $660,500.00 17.2%
Land Park $664,500.00 15.2%
Curtis Park $535,800.00 4.9%
Midtown $539,900.00 3.9%
Southside Park $419,000.00 -16.7%
Upper Land Park $483,100.00 6.8%
CSUS $550,800.00 8.9%
Newton Booth $369,000.00 -19.8%
Mansion Flats $376,800.00 -18.8%
Pocket $440,900.00 1.5%
Richmond Grove $725,000.00 42.2%
Westlake $456,700.00 16.9%
New Era Park $482,500.00 26.3%
Natomas Park $448,300.00 16.3%
Elmhurst $432,600.00 5.8%
South Land Park $428,300.00 13.6%
Little Pocket $421,300.00 -29.6%
Village 7 $423,900.00 -1.3%
Carleton Tract $346,300.00 21.5%
Sierra Oaks $477,000.00 -2.3%
Natomas Crossing $366,900.00 54.5%
Village 12 $370,800.00 13.6%
Downtown $402,900.00 7.9%
Willow Creek $377,600.00 10.5%
Z’berg Park $401,000.00 6.7%
Campus Commons $375,700.00 -2.0%
Tahoe Park East $325,000.00 3.5%
Med Center $384,600.00 11.2%
Natomas Creek $373,500.00 8.9%
Gateway West $370,500.00 13.3%
Tahoe South Park $320,200.00 7.7%
Regency Park $344,400.00 9.8%
South East $259,100.00 13.4%
North Oak Park $336,000.00 9.2%
Woodlake $419,300.00 14.5%
Sundance Lake $390,000.00 4.0%
Metro Center $350,200.00 20.7%
Hollywood Park $369,100.00 5.0%
Creekside $344,300.00 15.3%
Tahoe Park $376,400.00 14.8%
College / Glen $344,300.00 6.8%
Brentwood $379,200.00 55.5%
Tallac Village $257,600.00 1.9%
North City Farms $263,300.00 17.7%
Colonial Heights $277,600.00 -7.6%
Northpointe $280,800.00 4.6%
Colonial Village North $262,200.00 7.7%
South Natomas $281,000.00 15.8%
Valley Hi / North Laguna $300,700.00 20.1%
Strawberry Manor $188,600.00 4.4%
Gardenland $281,800.00 12.2%
Parkway Estates $248,300.00 0.3%
Northgate $253,900.00 12.0%
Avondale $206,700.00 4.4%
Mangan Park $283,400.00 12.5%
Parkway North $223,000.00 8.8%
Colonial Village $238,600.00 25.2%
Robla $272,800.00 14.4%
Meadowview $260,900.00 19.8%
Swanston Estates $283,400.00 37.5%
Tokay Park $203,800.00 -14.9%
Lindale $220,000.00 0.9%
Lawrence Park $213,800.00 7.1%
Hagginswood $208,400.00 4.0%
Oak Knoll $320,400.00 34.4%
Ralley Industrial Park $274,500.00 34.6%
Glen Elder $204,400.00 2.4%
South Hagginwood $182,900.00 38.1%
River Gardens $296,000.00 58.3%
Woodbine $223,500.00 0.2%
Parkway $236,300.00 29.9%
Central Oak Park $246,000.00 17.5%
Fruitridge Manor $102,500.00 -26.3%
South Oak Park $207,500.00 38.1%
Noralto $205,300.00 24.9%
East Del Paso Heights $190,900.00 11.8%
Richardson Village $221,300.00 51.6%
Golf Course Terrace $260,200.00 3.5%
Del Paso Heights $222,600.00 23.1%
Ben Ali $196,000.00 24.7%
Freeport Manor $303,800.00 38.1%
RP Sports Compex $150,000.00 20.1%
South City Farms $177,500.00 16.0%
Glenwood Meadows $252,100.00 10.4%
Willis Acres $187,200.00 7.5%
Airport $255,000.00 1.9%




Sacramento County is one of the hottest housing markets in 2018. If you’re an investor, you have to take this market seriously. With home prices at one third of neighboring cities in the Bay Area and 300,000 new residents in 2017, within a strong economy, there’s opportunity.

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Calgary Real Estate Market Forecast 2018 ⌂ BC Pipeline Oil Price Update Home Prices Calgary Airdrie Downtown Condos Apartments

Calgary Housing Market and Update

What’s the forecast for Calgary’s housing market for 2018 and beyond? Right now, it’s cautiously optimistic for buyers who are in a good position to benefit from a growing pool of housing stock Calgary in summer 2018.

The real estate market in Calgary has been in the dumps for several years, however with the price of oil hitting $66 today (May delivery), it’s getting interesting for buying and rental property investment.

Calgary’s challenge is similar to other North American cities with a lack of supply. Listings of homes dropped almost 50% in some areas of thecity from last summer. These might be gobbled up fast if energy prices rise quickly this summer.

Unemployment however has dropped in the last 2 years and many believe the recovery is well underway — powered up by rising oil prices in US dollars x rising production numbers.




OPEC Willing to Throttle Output

Yes, Calgary is more than oil, but oil money is hard to ignore. Alberta needs the investment funds that flow in when Oil prices rise.

With OPEC cutting oil production output, and oil prices jumping past $66 a barrel (WTI) it’s awakening the oil patch. Alberta’s oil production rose to record levels in the last two months. Multiply that by rising prices and the economic outcome should be obvious.

Twice now, during the early winter, prices rebounded. The price is showing peristence. If it does this for 3 more months, investors will being loading money back into the Alberta economy.

The political situation in the US is calming down, US economic health is improving rapidly, and by shutting out China, the US will be keeping billions and attracting more investment money.  Big picture looks really good. Prospect of a US housing collapse are low, even though Americans are very wary. That’s just smart.




If you’re considering moving to Calgary to work this year, be forewarned that Calgary is rated worst for affordability for lower income earners.

As of February 2018, average rent for an apartment in Calgary is $1129 which is a 12% decrease from last year when the average rent was $1264 , and a 3.72% increase from last month when the average rent was $1087.  — from RentJungle Report

Calgary Housing Market Stats

As you’ll note sales are down from 18 months ago, and those were recession numbers. Most of the buying and selling were in the first half of the year, and there was a burst of buying due to the Fed mortgage rule changes.

It’s worse than it looks. However with the economy on the upswing and oil prices pushing through $55, there is some optimism.




In February, listings and sales fell yet home prices kept level. CREB suggests a steady path to recover and a market very similar to 2017. They suggest rising interest rates, tougher mortgage rules, and stagnating wages should calm the market this year. Financial people are always citing microeconomic factors and mortgage rates as housing market factors, however people buy when the economy is good and is promising.

The Stampede chuck wagon advertising auction created $3.2 million in bids. The oil patch seems to be optimistic!

Calgary Housing Report for February 2018

Calgary Monthly Housing Stats February 2018 January 2018 October 2017 October 2016 September 2017
Total Homes Sales 657 583 910 1031 919
New Listings 1,293 1,288 1,483 1,326 1,873
Active Listings 2,456 2,199 3,250 2,574 3,479
Median Price 495,000 474,000 474,250 464,000 482,000
Average Price 575,407 575,407 544,984 529,378 556,372
Pending Sales 58 102
Days on Market 45 55 44 42 42

Above stats courtesy of CREB

South Calgary is the hot spot with 249 homes sold in February. The south has 799 homes listed for sale. 275 apartments were sold in downtown Calgary in February and there are 730 units available.  CREB expects sales of apartments to fall slightly in 2018, so buyers might have the upper hand this spring.

The Globe and Mail reports that 30% of Alberta’s new inventory remains unsold. This has to be one of the best buyers markets ever for investors, as long as you don’t mind waiting for the payoff.

And with housing prices predominantly in the $300k to $500k range, Calgary is still considered affordable, especially compared to Toronto and Vancouver where life is painful for renters, mortgage holders, and buyers in waiting.



Chart courtesy of CREB. Timeline of Calgary home prices

Even the experts are voicing caution, probably because they’re not sure themselves who has control of oil prices, and whether the BC pipeline issue will be solved. And BC doesn’t seem to be batting an eye, as gas prices there rose above $1.50 a litre.

Rachel Notley pointed out the BC premier’s ironic and hypcritical stance on Alberta oil with his new subsidies for LNG projects in BC. BC gas prices look like they’ll go sky high by May and June and the resistance might begin to wane at that point.

Gas Price shock – Photo Courtesy of CTV.ca

And besides the BC carbon tax, and the investment killing removal of the corporate tax rate cut, there’s also the matter of how much Vancouver’s housing market can take as interest rates rise too.

This is a text book test of the merit and wisdom of government regulation. BC’s government run auto insurance sector is already in deep trouble, rumoured to be on the verge of bankruptcy.

Not only does Alberta ease the prices BC drivers pay for gasoline, the Federal taxes on oil production are steep and distributed to the other provinces. Everyone benefits when Alberta’s energy sector thrives. It’s vital for Canada.

The WTI WCS price differential is a painful loss for Alberta Oil producers and of late it’s gotten worse due to pipeline bottlenecks. Will it get worse this year?

Alberta’s production capacity is impressive and has recovered by 7,000 m3 from 2 years ago. The issue is getting it to world markets.




With the US and global economies looking good (the recent tariff issue with China should be resolved), demand for energy and oil is forecast to be strong. BP forecasts a strong demand from developing countries.

International investors with a long term investment strategy should compare what you can buy in Calgary for $400,000 vs what you’ll get in the Vancouver market or Toronto market areas and you can see the long term investment advantages.  Calgary is a much easier place to do buiness and buy real estate.

Calgary’s spectacular Peace Bridge for pedestrians and cyclists spans the Bow River

Which are The Best Neighbourhoods to Buy a Home in Calgary?

As a long time resident, I can tell you there are many excellent neighbourhoods, with great schools, shopping, and recreation. All of it is accessible.

If you enjoy exercise, you may find the communities along with the Bow River best. There is a cycling/walking trail on both sides and the mountain biking park at Canada Olympic Park is on it too.

If you like beautiful views, Calgary has plenty. The northwest area of Calgary including those communities near Spy Hill, Coach Hill, and Nose Hill Park offer amazing views, and lofty prices too. The neighbourhoods on the northwest outskirts of the city offer unbelievable panoramic views of the Rocky Mountains to the west. Expect million dollar prices here. Homes on Spy Hill and Coach Hill offer incredible views of almost all of Calgary and the spectacular downtown skyline.

If water sports like sailing and windsurfing are important to you, Calgary has a number of man made lakes in the south end. The South has the largest selection of homes, with the Northwest next in number.

If you like cosmopolitan, the neighborhoods near downtown Calgary will appeal to you with the shops and walkability. And downtown’s plus 15 walkway system is close by too.  Downtown city centre is where the condos are and virtually everything you need is here on 7th, 8th and 9th Avenue . The Bow River pathway is adjacent and Calgary’s convenient light rail transit can wisk you away to shopping in the south end of the city.

With the recession now largely in the rear view mirror, and with the price of oil rising steadily, homebuyers and property investors will be looking at Calgary homes differently.

With house prices so low, the expectation for buying residential properties in 2018 will improve. For speculators, the Calgary market is tantalizing, given that home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Bay Area, New York, and Miami have peaked.

Calgary’s low price entry point offers a great long term potential. And the selection of luxury homes in Calgary is as spectacular as the landscapes and views from many of the properties.

Inmigration to Calgary is rising and mortgage rates remain low. Although made in Canada housing policies will constrain the market, the outlook for Calgary real estate is for growth. The extent of that growth of course depends on the price of oil and the value of the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar.




The Price of Oil – Already Above Expectations

Oil Prices were never expected to rise near $50 yet are above $55 now. The Saudis have proven they control the price of oil, not markets. Tough to predict what they’ll do however their recent actions show some resolve and purpose. The fact prices have reached $55, well above the limits predicted by all the experts has to indicate something.

OIL Prices Screen Capture courtesy of Marketwatch.com

The World Bank may have posted the best forecast for oil prices through to 2020.

Screen capture courtesy of the IMF

You can check all the oil price predictions for yourself.

 

 




Price to list ratio revels that those putting up their houses for sale are receving 95.7% of their list price.
Total sales volume of apartment dropped slightly, however total sales in dollars dropped by $5 million compared to September.

Screenshot courtesy of CREB.com

Economic Predictions for Calgary

If oil continues to rise steadily in price, Alberta stands to recover economically. Businesses have pared down their costs and are better able to profit from growth. Although not officially a big component of the rosy Canadian economic forecast, Alberta and Calgary are keys to the future.

Alberta’s economy is much more diversified than it used to be however it is impossible to replace the revenue generation of the Canadian oil sands, the world’s largest pool of untapped oil reserves.

The price of WTI oil just reached $56, well above $30 a barrel last year, and there are indications the Saudis intend to cut production. The wise course of action is for governments to support the oil sands and other more costly production methods to grow oil supply. This would prevent OPEC from harming the growing US economy and the global economic upswing.

CREB’s 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Update

In the Calgary Real Estate Board’s most recent 2017 Calgary Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market update, CREB believes the pace of economic recovery will be slow but stable. Stagnant employment, wages, slow immigration, tighter mortgage lending restrictions, and made for Vancouver/Toronto economic policies will weigh on the Calgary housing market.

The latest report does forecast for 2018. However, Alberta’s economic performance is expected to be well up at 4.3% for all of 2017. New construction housing starts will be well down this year at around 3500 units. Multifamily housing starts are down just slightly from 2016 levels.



Screen capture courtesy of CREB.com. Stats courtesy of CMHC.

Total house sales were precisely forecasted to be 600 higher in 2017 than 2016 with a price similar. Dead on accurate. New listings will total 32,731, 400 for the full year. Sales of apartment will rise slightly over last years numbers at about 2800 units.

The loonie remains around 78 cents CAD vs USD, maintaining an excellent premium on exports from Calgary, and exports of Alberta oil. Forex experts believe the US dollar forecast is upward, while the Canadian dollar forecast is downward.

If new construction starts are constrained, then the resale market may grow in the neighbourhood of 1% in 2018, 2% in 2019 and perhaps 3% in 2019.  Of course, all predictions rest on the price of oil which as mentioned, the Saudis and OPEC control.  And US shale production and drilling rig counts seem to moderate upward increases in oil prices.

The last word on the Calgary Real Estate Forecast is positive. Oil price is rising, the US dollar is climbing with President Trump’s new tax cut to raise the US dollar value. With Alberta’s growth currently reported at 6%, a solid Canadian economic forecast at 3.7% growth in 2018, we’re running out of reasons why Calgary isn’t going to boom in 2018.

Note: the preceding post is not meant as specific investment advice, but rather as a comparison of real estate investment or home buying opportunities. Please ensure you discuss all investments with a licensed professional.

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Los Angeles Housing Market

Housing Forecast for Los Angeles 2018 to 2020

The real estate/housing market in Los Angeles enjoyed good growth during 2017. And predictions are for higher prices and good conditions for sellers.

However, the stats for January 2018 were a little sobering. According to curbed LA,  only 4,847 homes were sold in LA County. That’s an alarming drop from 6,613 in December and much less at 5,188 sales in January of 2017.

Prices grew $41k this spring of 2018. Predictions are for continuing high prices due to ongoing shortages.

The wild fires had an effect, in LA County and hitting regions such as Sonoma and Napa valley regions hardest. The insurance driven recovery should revive the housing market in LA.

The losses were estimated at nearly $10 billion with a $500 billion hit to the economy. The numbers are similar to the floods experienced in Houston TX or Miami FL .  Some homeowners are discovering they weren’t covered sufficiently with their home insurance.



The California Association of Realtors Outlook

CAR reported that:

  • single-family home sales fell 7.6% in January down to 388,800 and down 2.9% from January 2017.
  • January’s statewide median home price was $527,800, down 4.0% yet still 7.3% higher than January 2017.
  • entry level homes in California rose to $220,000 in California, up more than 10 percent from 2017 when entry-level home averaged $200,000.
  • the DOM for a single-family home remained low at 27 days in January, compared with 36 days in January 2017.

The California Department of Insurance said the fires cost $9.0 billion in insurance claims so far, which was 3 times the $3 billion claimed previously.  For the next few months however, California housing will be in extra short supply.



Fires might actually be an unfortunate distraction from the housing crisis that’s existed for many years now in Los Angeles and across the whole state of California. The state just can’t seem to get a handle on the need for more homes.

The OC Register reports that CEQA lawsuits against developments are a serious issue for housing, especially in the LA area. As Los Angeles residents suffer financially, and while housing crash rumors float around, prices are rising.  You’ll need an income of $120,000 to buy a home in LA in 2018.

Prices of condos in downtown LA are reportedly $90,000 higher than last year.

Insurance Companies Fielding Claims from Homeowners

Is it instinct or just common sense that California will continue as the most desired place to live on the planet? Does the climate in San Diego, Sacramento , Bay Area, and Los Angeles along with the high paying jobs, interesting geography, lifestyle and recreation, California is a magnet for people around the world.




Infographic Courtesy of CAR.org – LA Buyer Profile

In 2017, real estate sales in 2017 in California eased however house prices remain high in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, and San Francisco / Bay Area housing markets which had previously approached prerecession highs. But will they rise further and is this the right time to invest in an income property?

The short answer is Yes. Houses for sale in Los Angeles County and Orange County are in short supply and new residential development is not keeping pace. It would take a market crash to stop the price rise and even then it would only be for a few years. For wealthy investors, a few years is well worth the wait. The question is where to get a realistic price? The hunt continues.



Santa Monica House Prices

Average House for Sale Still Sells

CAR reports the average house price in LA rose about 10% in late summer of 2017. San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange County had strong price growth of 8% to 10%.   Contrast that with the drop in the Bay Area of more of about 3% or $14k to $33k for detached homes and you realize LA is a more attractive housing market for property investors.

The effect of the fires will be to reduce availability and raise prices. So not much relief in site for the LA market. As in most housing markets across the US, millennials have been shut out of the markets. They’re in their child bearing years and have saved up small fortunes to ready them to finally purchase. They’ll be buying in LA or Orange County somewhere.

Sales volume actually increased 11.5% in the last month, so homeowners appear to be loosening up finally.  Realtors are wondering how they can get people to sell their homes. Inventory is the big story for the fall of 2017.

This graphic from CAR.org’s latest report shows inventory in California is sharply down from last year. Sales above $500k were up up. Active listings in the lower price ranges are down considerably ( -10% to -28%).

Screen capture courtesy of CAR.org

And buyers
real estate investors are hopeful they can find the right property in the right city or zip code. Zillow has forecast house prices in Los Angeles to rise throughout 2018 while CAR shows it moderating. A lot depends on the political climate and interest rates.

Screen Capture courtesy of Trulia

We should keep in mind that only 30% of Californians own a home so the door is wide open for opportunity and new sales, particularly with first time buyers.  The problem is that homeowners don’t want to sell and buyers can’t afford the prices.

Why are Buyers Buying in California?

CAR’s 2016 survey showed only a small portion of buyers buy property as an investment. Only 13% are real estate investors.

California Home Buyer Survey Buyer Survey – Screen Capture courtesy of CAR.org

The US economy will pick up steam and Californians will be buying a home again even if they have 1 hour+ commutes, higher interest rates, and out migration to remote towns.

Check out the top housing factors below affecting housing prices in discover a better homes for sale search process.




The Telling Stats about LA’s Forecast

If buyer’s are hoping for bargains in the next 4 years, they’re unlikely to find them. Despite a dip in September, prices for homes and condos are up $24k to $30k from one year ago. Are the Asian and Persian buyers pulling out of LA?  The Trump instability and trade issue might be a pause before even more money pours into the reviving American economy.  Make American Great Again, also creates excellent investment opportunities in California, paying out in $US.

  • jobs being repatriated back to the US from Mexico and China
  • employment already good and rising
  • the end of Obamacare?
  • the end of Dodd-Frank restrictions on lending
  • general Federal easing of real estate development expected
  • it will take some time for mortgage rates to rise
  • still isn’t enough housing to house LA’s growing population (recession)




It’s the Los Angeles housing forecast that is perhaps one of the most interesting forecasts for the US for the next few years. California’s housing developers are hard pressed to build homes to house the population. We can speculate that homes will rise in price for the next 4 years. It’s not easy to predict though when people are talking real estate bubbles, NAFTA cancellations, Brexit, skyrocketing prices, vacillating oil prices, reduced immigration, and presidential elections.  




malibusmall
Malibu Coastal. Photo courtesy of marisolmalibu.com

Overall, the Los Angeles forecast was very good for sellers with plenty of demand and with the average price of a home hitting $690,000 last summer. Affordability is dropping though and only 30% of LA county residents own a home. 

Given the nasty commutes Los Angeles workers are enduring, this housing crisis should be a top priority for the California state governor.

A few pundits are suggesting homeowners need to build granny flats in everyone’s back yard.  Political battles are forming over the effect of regulations on LA’s and California’s home construction. Who will win? Will they battle Trump head to head to stop new development?

The situation may become worse than what San Francisco, Vancouver, and Toronto have been through, and what Miami, New York, and Boston may be into now.


Save your Money on Auto Insurance Quotes in LA

Are you paying too much for car insurance in Los Angeles? Some zip codes and neighborhoods are subject to higher premiums. Are you okay with that? How about finding lower car insurance rates and making it a habit of shopping for auto insurance every year? 2017 is a good year to save:)

Here’s the Hottest Zip Codes in Los Angeles

LA Curbed’s list of hot zip codes: Los Angeles’s 90012 zip code is shaping up to be the 2nd fastest growing area in the nation at 8.8% growth, 2nd behind only Gilbert AZ. The 90012 zip code includes Chinatown, the Civic Center, Elysian Park, Victor Heights, parts of the Arts District and Bunker Hill, and most of Little Tokyo.

Here’s the LA Times hot zip code list:

Santa Monica 90402 – Average home price: $3,237,500

Hermosa Beach 9025 – Average home price: $1,693,500

Lincoln Heights/Montecito 90031 – Average home price $458,500 +14.6%

City Terrace  90063 – Average home price: $320,000 +18.5%

Marina Del Rey 90292 – Average home price: $2,157,500 +23%

Manhattan Beach 90266 – Average home price: $2,100,000 +10%

Compton – 90220 – Average home price: $285,000 +9.8%

Playa Del Rey 90293 – Average home price: $1,517,500 +26.5%

Toluca Lake Studio City  91602 – Average home price: $1,022,500

Read more on the best zip codes in the US for investors and homebuyers.

LA Home Prices Fully Recovered?

The Los Angeles home price graph below courtesy of Zillow shows how prices have almost returned to pre-recession values and are beginning to level off. To forecast prices and demand for the LA region, we’d have to examine the cause of the moderation and if it’s a fact. Here’s LA’s hottest zip codes.

 

Last year, home prices in LA rose 7.8%. That’s a fairly strong ascent to just snap out of, so we’re left wondering what really is the outlook is for the 2017 to 2020 period? With prices high and rising, it makes sense that the number of buyers will dwindle (preferring to rent) and a leveling off would occur. It seems however, this is more of a guess by forecasters not really backed up by a solid consideration of all the factors that will be in play during the next 4 years – defeated regulations, growing economy, and reduced immigration.

Homes for Sale in Los Angeles: Prices, Trends from Zillow

Try the Zillow Home Search Widget to learn more about LA Homes for Sale. Realtors, click here to hear more about the Zillow leads program:

 

Home Sales Volume Chart: Los Angeles

la-home-sales-firsttues

Is there a Housing Bubble Market?

harvardHere’s the thing. According to a Harvard real estate guru, bubbles don’t burst until demand dries up — an increase in unsold inventory.

Do you honestly think there will be no demand for coastal California property, especially Los Angeles county or Orange county?  As you’ll see from the data in this post below, there is huge demand for property. Supply is the problem.

Factors Affecting House prices and Availability in LA

  1. Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases
  2. Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed
  3. Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening
  4. Down Payment and mortgage rules – Banks are withdrawing FHA loans however some are offering downpayments as low as 3%
  5. Regional Employment – Very low and remaining low
  6. Buyer Income – low and not rising much
  7. Home Prices – High and rising – out of reach for many buyers – many consider LA homes grossly over-priced
  8. Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and LA millennials have had the lowest rate of home buying (pent up demand)
  9. Number of Renters – increasing fast
  10. New Home Construction: slow (100k to 140k per year)
  11. Economic-Foreign Trade – Trump expected to reduce US deficit
  12. Election Year – Voters uncertain of what Trump will create
  13. Taxes on Sale of Home – Tax situation is great for sellers




Historical Data

This intriguing graphic courtesy of http://journal.firsttuesday.us/ reveals that home sales in Los Angeles is actually well down from historical levels. The likely reason for that is lower income buyers simply have even less income to buy and of course the high prices. Home ownership is lowest in California.

la-case-schiller-index

A complete recovery of around 110,000 annual home sales will likely occur in 2019-2020, as end user demand in Los Angeles County is buttressed by a Great Confluence of Baby Boomers (Boomers) and first-time buyers who are lured by further employment (needed to accommodate population growth of roughly 1% annually since the beginning of the Great Recession).

That’s a forecast growth of about 20,000 homes per year over current current 2016 levels.

Another interesting stat provided by firsttuesday is the very low rate of home ownership and how much it’s plummeted. It’s on the uprise now, and you’re left wondering whether Trump’s renewed emphasis of America First will encourage the growth of home ownership?

la-homeownership

LA Economic Forecast – Very Rosy

la-economic-forecastThe forecast for economic growth for the Los Angeles is optimistic at this point. Visit http://laedc.org/2015/09/30/new-2016-2020-economic-forecast-published-93015/ for the most recent info and their forecast up to 2020.

 

This Stat from CAR shows homes have been on a rollercoaster ride of sorts yet, 2016’s expected resale volume is still well down from 2011 and 2012’s highs. If incomes should rise in the LA area, it could have the effect of stimulating new housing construction and increase sales of homes. With the number renters skyrocketing, there’s a huge pool of potential buyers.

Home reSales Forecasts 2016f

la-housing-stats

This graphic reveals the exceptionally high cost of renting in Los Angeles compared with other major centers. The housing availability problem isn’t isolated to California or LA, it’s a US wide issue. The high housing costs in the coastal California areas however may prevent many skilled workers from migrating to LA to work. Startups for instance may be forced to leave San Francisco, Bay Area and LA because of the cost. San Diego County may be a better option for the short term.

la-rentals

This is a short term forecast from LA realtor James Campbell, who believes prices will drop?!

What can we conclude from the above data? That LA’s market for realtors is very promising, yet just as it is in San Francisco, Toronto and Vancouver, finding sellers and convincing them to sell will be a key challenge.  Digital marketing efforts could be vital to any realtor hoping to maximize demand and achieve highest price for their clients. Is this the right year to buy rental income property?  Find out which are the best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Check out other posts providing realtor tips, prospecting strategies, social media strategy, and tactics used by top flight luxury realtors and even lead generation companies.




Related posts: Housing Market 2018 | Florida Real EstateBlockchain Real EstateSan Francisco Housing ForecastLos Angeles Housing Market | Sacramento Housing Market | San Diego Housing Market | Real Estate Agents | Blockchain Real Estate | Toronto Real Estate SEO | Vancouver Condos | Toronto Condos | Vancouver Housing Forecast | Affordable LeadsRealtor Branding | Realtor Branding |  Realtor Growth Hacks | Realtor Skills | Realtors Benefits | Home SearchHousing Crash  | Stock Forecast | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecast | USD CAD Exchange Rate

Gord Collins —  I generate leads for realtors in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Sausalito, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Fresno, NAPA, Tiburon, Oakland, Palo Alto, Anaheim, Beverly Hills,, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento, Encinitas, Orange County, LA County, Riverside, Malibu, Santa Barbara, San Bernardino, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita,  Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Chula Vista, Escondido, and Santa Monica, Venice Beach, and La Jolla. See additional housing market reports on New York NYC, San Diego CA, and San Francisco CA.

Branding Strategy for Realtors Mortgage Agents Insurance Agents Dentists Lawyers Advisors

Realtor Branding

You might ask why out of 500 visits to your website, only 1 visitor might actually contact you about a listing. That low conversion rate is very typical and it’s the obsession of the latest trend in digital marketing – harvesting the few web visitors you have, rather than building on what you have.

Instead, a strategy of growing your online prospects and presenting an irresistable brand image is the way to really jump start your leads and sales. The bar is raised. There’s a lot of noise out there. You need to establish a new image that isn’t eroded by wealthy competitors.

That’s the biggest Realtor problem: a poor value proposition. And let’s say I drive 100,000 visitors to your website via Google and social media and you still don’t convert those leads? It’s up to you to present a value proposition or brand image that makes them want to work only with you.

This post is about demystifing Realtor branding. It’s not about fancy business cards with smiling faces of clients. Its really about knowing your target market and presenting a laser clear value proposition that communicates the key benefits these people must have.




So why is it that these visitors don’t want to hire you right away? Has your content and introduction made them feel you are the only one for them?  That’s exactly what a well branded website should do. And you do that by customizing your visuals and content so that it speaks to your best prospects.

Increased Competition and Rising Expectations

Buyers and sellers expect more today. A nice picture and a collection of featured listings they’re not interested in doesn’t work well enough, and you probably know that.

An example I like to use is a former client of mine, Calgary Home Boys. This website is amazing in its visual cleanliness and user friendliness. It lets visitors get right to searching and the visuals are amazing. This is a dream site to work on. It may set you back $30k.  Otherwise, you can have me build one in WordPress for much less and have a RETS IDX feed to boot.

The one issue however is that the visitor doesn’t receive a strong branded message before they start searching. You want them to start their search with you in mind, not just to peruse the database. The point isn’t to be a library of homes to search. In this case the visitor does get the message they will can work with one realtor from a great team – The Calgary Home Boys.

As you look at their page, what feeling do you get about the home buying or selling experience? What are the benefits you visualize right away? That’s the thing with branding, it’s a picture that’s drawn fast. The challenge is that you have to know who your visitor is and what specific benefits or experience they want.

Read the 18 Benefits buyers and sellers want below for the general drivers of contact.

Another part of the branding and inquiry process is whether the page presents a “missing piece” of information the visitor needs. If all their questions are answered, complete satisfaction, then they have no compelling reason to contact you.

If they’re going to take that bait, which most won’t, you need a strong branding message that tells them it’s definitely worth it to contact you. Buying a house or condo without you is just plain crazy.

What’s the Essence of a Powerful Realtor Brand?

It’s in the promise of an enjoyable experience, and how closely you fit in with the image they have of why they’re selling and about their dreams. Out of all the hundreds of Realtors they can choose, they want a person who fits into their life experience.

  • trust
  • comfort/unthreatening
  • credibility/authority
  • proof of experience
  • resources/product
  • proven expertise via your website
  • personal relevance to their life dream and goals

Your brand is your unique value proposition. Your UVP is the thing they receive when they see your site, you, and read your copy. The headings, photos, stats, and promise of value you present tells them quickly whether you’re on the same wave length and will deliver what they want.

The biggest failing of Realtors (and mortgage agents, lawyers and other professionals) is a lack of a relevant unique personalized value proposition. And even those who try to promote one, lack the differentiation, personalization, and relevance to the visitors.  That’s why they leave. Someone else is more relevant, even though you’re better.

That’s why you might leave my site without hiring me. It’s because my value proposition doesn’t seem strong enough, and I’m not personally relevant to what and who you think should be doing real estate marketing. You may expect those with a fancy website and the right buzzwords to be credible. And you may not believe website content and SEO are relevant to being a successful Realtor. Afterall, you can simply advertise for quick leads.

But then you’re back at it this spring without a sustainable strategy for growing your circle of prospects.

Visitors from Facebook and Google are fairly qualified visitors because they’re searching real estate and housing related topics.  They’re thinking about buying or selling but no one has presented compelling reasons to act on their impulse.

It’s not an easy challenge to find the right content mix and strategy to entice them. But how many sales could result if you did?

realtorpresentingsmall

After I saw the inadvertent thrashing of Realtor’s brand image as a whole, I thought we should look at the issue of how and why realtors are chosen today – so you can connect emotionally with your prospects like a magnet.




Realtors: Run from Cliches

The CREA TV ads attempted to reassure home buyers that they weren’t buying a former grow op house or moving next to “kinky” neighbours. Yet, they didn’t appease buyers let alone sellers who, strangely, weren’t even represented in the TV ads I saw.

Here’s what Subtej Nijjar, a partner at Union Creative said about their CREA TV ads:

The goal is to get Canadians and homebuyers to understand some of the pitfalls that are unknown to us in buying and selling a home and some of the skills real-estate agents bring to the table.

What Union Creative did was make realtors a commodity by making benefits so seem shallow, and by using endearing terms like “bring to the table.” So heart warming!

They’ve made it harder for you to differentiate yourself as a relevant individual who brings special emotional rewards — that’s the only way you can differentiate yourself. If you’re a clone of all the other realtors, you’re not much better than the cliche image NAR or CREA are building up.

Buyers (and Homesellers, the most prized customer) don’t care about possible ‘grow ops.’  They assume those details are taken care of. They expect the realtor to find the right buyer fast, negotiate the best price, and at least take away the pain of the transaction.

Buyers and sellers don’t want features.  They want emotional benefits. A realtor who understands these emotional benefits won’t have to haggle with commission or even prove skills and experience. They’re hitting close to what they want on a real level.

People buy and sell on emotion. Changing homes is more about lifestyle, quality of living, and optimism about what’s ahead. As Kevin Ward of YesMasters suggests — take care of the heart.

18 Benefits for You to Synthesize into One

Other than feeling good about what they’re doing, there’s a collection of benefits buyers/sellers are looking for. Each benefit is an opportunity to distinguish yourself apart from the noname competition. And please keep in mind the names RE/MAX or Century 21 isn’t what makes people feel good — it’s everything you do to enhance what they’re doing with their lives.

If prospects aren’t choosing you, it’s not because of your gender, skin colour, age, ethnicity, pedigree or physical attractiveness. It’s because they don’t believe you share the same values nor appreciate the amazing life change they visualize. They may feel you’re ruining their experience. Although they want these 18 benefits below, overall they want to be happy and feel that you’re capable of supporting that happiness, even briefly.

Here’s 18 Benefits Buyers/Sellers want from a Realtor

Use each of these benefits in your secret sauce to let them know who will make them happiest and most satisfied:

  1. Confidence that a specific realtor will generate the best results
  2. Is likable and makes the buyer/seller feel better about the buying/selling experience and what they’re doing with their lives — creating friendship, trust and meaning
  3. Listens to buyers to understand what they want
  4. They want someone who has the same values and can make the whole experience positive and feel good (not the same as likability, e.g., your mom is very likable, but you wouldn’t want her arranging or catering your stag party)
  5. Will sell your house faster
  6. Is ethical, honest, and abides by the law
  7. Has a strong internet marketing and local marketing capability
  8. Saves you frustration and anxiety by finding qualified, ready to buy homebuyers
  9. Saves you the agony of arranging showings and talking to buyers
  10. Sets the right selling price
  11. More objective and experienced about how to sell your home helping you avoid a selling strategy that could put in financial danger
  12. Understands the local market and does an accurate estimate of the property
  13. Gives you confidence during an emotional, possibly insecure time in your life
  14. Knows what needs to be improved to raise the property value
  15. Negotiates effectively with buyers
  16. Helps you avoid a situation where you are holding 2 mortgages
  17. Knows what’s been selling in your neighbourhood
  18. Has the resources of a brokerage to offer to you

That’s a lot of items you can use in your web and social media content strategy to build your unique, relevant, helpful, supportive image.  When you are completely unique, you have no competition.

Even after you’ve achieved some online reach and sales success, you may be held back by the fact that you aren’t unique, relevant and memorable. You look like all the other faces in the local realtor sales flyer. Are you above the crowd when you’re on the same page with 40 other realtor faces? Sure, that’s good branding for Remax, Sothebys, Century21,  Royal Lepage, Sutton Group, and all the others.

The key for you might be to never appear undifferentiated online or in print or TV. From your business cards to your Facebook page, be unique and relevant to your specific target.

Set Yourself Apart with Positive Emotion-Building Content

To set yourself apart, you can write your online content in a way that separates you as a better, more capable, honest, ethical, valuable realtor who solves your buyers/sellers needs in the exact way they want.

Please don’t let your brokerage, CREA or NAR cheapen or commoditize your realtor brand image. Listen to what Kevin Ward of YesMasters.com says about being unique and connecting with client’s hearts:

I hope you’ve enjoyed this alternate view of the big brand experience and have the wisdom to begin that venture into significance and reverence to your clients.

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US Housing Market Crash 2018 2019 and Beyond

Housing Market Crash 2018?

Despite the strength of the US economy, growing employment and wages, a high number of investors and homebuyers are concerned about a housing market crash in 2018 or 2019.

Take a good look at the crash factors below and the national housing market forecast along with predictions for major urban housing markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston.




Trump Volatility: No Telling Who He’ll Point at Next: Canada, China, Mexico? Trade wars can fester quickly like a wild fire.

Certainly the recent comments of the President that “Trade Wars are Good” don’t help settle the volatility in the stock markets. Strong inflation and cost of living rises, potential trade wars, along with high mortgage rates are serious threats.

In this post we try to take an objective look at the unthinkable. At least, it’s unthinkable for some that booming markets in Los Angeles, San Fransciso, Sacramento, San Jose, Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Charlotte, Boston and Miami could possibly collapse. Is the Toronto housing bubble (worst in world now) the future for US cities?



Going back to 2007, did anyone suspect what was about to happen?

When Will Local Market Bubbles Burst?

If you look at the forecasts for all the bubbled up city markets such as San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston you’ll likely think back to prices before the last crash.

Are you spooked about the real estate market in 2018 or 2019? Is the market sufficiently over heated? When will interest rates become a problem? The recent jobs report was strong, although wages aren’t overheating. Supply is coming online.

Take a look at the 12 Top Crash Factors listed below do help decide whethery buying a house or rental apartment is still a wise decision.

Check the state of the US housing market right now and 2018 forecast.

The recent stock market correction gives us pause for thought about how volatility can factor into a housing crash. However, the housing market is healthy with construction rising and it will be a long time before demand is satisfied.

Mathematicians have studied housing bubbles, such as The University of Pennsylvania, and their HOUSING BUBBLE STRUCTURAL MODEL AND HYPOTHESES models couldn’t figure it out. The factors they studied do play a role, but housing bubbles and crashes are likely a cultural phenomenon (outside of major recessions).  It comes down to values, dreams and panic emotions.

There are some financial market players who make their fortune on crashes and if consumemrs are miffed about the direction of the market, it would be fertile ground for crash talk.

As long as Americans are employed with rising wages and growing GDP, housing crashes aren’t likely. Yet, a few experts such as Harry Dent are convinced a housing market disaster looms in the next few years. Even Anthony Robbins is speaking up about it in a video below.



A growing number of homeowners and buyers are talking housing bubble. With prices stable, economy strong, and demand persistent, why would so many feel the market could crash? Is buyer and seller pessimism enough to launch a sudden collapse?

Have a good look at the current housing market along with the residential markets in cities such as Boston, Houston, Seattle, Sacramento, and Los Angeles. If you or your family are considering buying a home or condo, it’s wise to understand the macroecomic and human factors.

There’s two camps on the 2018 crash issue. First those who see the unbelievable rate of economic growth in the US and believe it has to end; and secondly, those who see only positive signals and the solid political footing of the Trump administration in its resolution to bring good paying jobs and industry back to the US.

Even if the US is headed for greater things, it doesn’t preclude the possibility of a major market correction in housing. But for housing to crash, a series of factors would have to align.

12 Housing Crash Factors

  1. excessively high home prices via a price bubble
  2. increasing underwater mortgages
  3. fast rising interest mortgage rates
  4. slowing economy and sudden rises in unemployment
  5. wage growth not keeping up with home prices
  6. tax changes and geo-political shifts
  7. trade deal disturbance
  8. a stock market bubble and volatility
  9. high level of consumer debt affecting debt servicing
  10. cost of living rises
  11. risky low rate mortgages for new home buyers
  12. high oil and energy prices

We might add a very strong US dollar to the mix too. A strong dollar makes US exports too expensive thus threatening jobs here and making imports more attractive.

Even though the housing markets have substantial strength, the world is a very connected place. If China and other economies were to collapse, it might be enough to send the stock markets and real estate markets plummeting. Dent says New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston are the riskiest markets.

What did say Mellon Bank’s expert say back in 2014, about the source of recessions?

2018 will be a big year: Economist from CNBC.

Neil Kashkari talks extensively about false prophets (Alan Greenspan) and the sources of market bubbles such as $100 barrel oil, and other uncontrollable situations.  He says market bubbles and crashes are very complex and the source is often completely unexpected. Could the oil sheiks take the US economy down again? Could China do it? Is the $20 Trillion debt a threat? Or is just the end of a bull run in the stock market?

However, in those cases where debt is fueling the asset value increase, a correction could trigger financial instability, because banks might take huge losses and potentially fail.” — Neil Kashkari.

If you’ve purchased a pricey home or condo, or you’re considering buying a property in the overheated Los Angeles housing market, San Francisco housing market or those in New York, Seattle, San Jose, San Diego, Portland, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, or other hot real estate markets, you’re likely feeling some nerves of late.

The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.

In San Francisco, the risk of a bubble burst in 2018/2019 is highest and that city is ranked number 1 as highest for a crash. Prices in the San Francisco Bay area housing market are extremely high and if the tech sector does have an extended downtick with rising mortgage rates, perhaps the forecasted slide could start.

Top 10 Cities Most Likely to Experience a Housing Crash

From a report in AOL.com here are the top ten US Cities most likely to experience a crash:

  1. Portland, Oregon
  2. Charleston, SC
  3. Buffalo, NY
  4. Fresno, CA
  5. Los Angeles, CA
  6. Dallas, TX
  7. Salt Lake City, UT
  8. Austin, TX
  9. San Jose, CA
  10. San Francisco, CA

Interesting list, dominated by California and Texas, which have been doing well economically. With oil prices rising, I wonder if that will calm the situation in Dallas and Houston? A good number of people are inquiring about a Florida housing crash as well, yet Miami isn’t the whole Florida market.

Tyler Durden of zerohedge.com discusses in a post how homeowners are burdened in debt and unable to refinance their mortgages. He points to his key statistic that mortgage owners will not be refinancing their mortgages in 2017 which points in the direction of bubble bursts and crashes.

This chart below paints a very scary picture, that it’s worse than 2006.  Not only does it correlate 2017 with 2006, it shows that we’re up high on a dangerous cliff in some cities. However, most cities aren’t in this situation, so if a collapse in California, New York and Texas were to occur, other cities might survive okay.

There are other mitigating factors too such as the strengths in the economy, foreign investors buying property, and rising optimism and confidence since Trump won the election.  At this point, we’re wondering if Obama and Clinton are relieved not to have to face the mess they created? Trump seems to be up to the task and yet, he has purportedly said he would enjoy watching the crash, even if it takes down some of his real estate empire. Is this just a comment on high home prices?

The cost and availability of credit provide fuel for a bubble to inflate, inviting even less experienced, or less credit-worthy players into the game, all of whom believe they will sell their recently purchased assets at ever-increasing prices — from a CNBC post.

That credit is being freed up in 2018/2019, but will it fast enough to create huge instability if mortgage rates don’t rise precipitously? Here’s Seattlebubble’s reasoning on why we may not be in a housing bubble/crash situation:

  • still lots of all-cash buyers, with few zero-down buyers
  • no crazy neg-am, fog-a-mirror, interest-only home loans like last time
  • interest rates remaining low
  • affordability index not as bad
  • buyers and lenders more cautious

Home prices aren’t as high as they were in 2006/2007 and mortgage rates are much lower:





No one will dispute that there are big risks but for 2017, everything looks to be under control.

Are you looking for the best cities to invest in real estate? The top 80 cities to buy rental properties gives you a peak at the potential of rental property investment.

Is this the right year to buy a rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2017 and is investing in real estate a wise decision?

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Disclaimer: this post/information is meant as a discussion of housing and investing issues, ideas and trends, not as advice for investment. Please use good judgement and professional advice if you’re investing in any market whether stocks or real estate.

The Future of Real Estate | AI Blockchain Software Cryptocurrency Bitcoin and the Housing Market 2018

The Future of Real Estate

While housing markets in US cities waffle back and forth between market crash and price peaks, homebuyers, property investors and Realtors are wondering what real estate will look like in 5 to 10 years time.

Courtesy of Pinterest — kevin-miller-0125.blogspot.com

In this post, we look at the future of real estate technology (Fintech and Proptech). If you’re a homebuyer considering buying a house, these changes affect how fast you can buy and sell, and how your gain could be thousands of dollars.

When is All This Happening?

Changes are here now. Realtors and Brokerages will have to alter their roles and value proposition to add new value rather than being transaction facilitators, and find new opportunities that are appearing. New tech brokers have already arrived but they don’t have it all figured out yet.

When usage hits whats called critical mass, that’s when real estate businesses will adopt it completely as the new standard. It’s about more than blockchain in real estate alone.

Of course there’s resistance to new tech such as blockchain and bitcoin in real estate. Blockchain is tranformative. Yet when someone like rexmls lost $1.3 million mistakenly sending cryptocurrency to the wrong address, we know there is risk all round.




Realtors, investors, lawyers, mortgage agents, title/escrow people, and homebuyers are about to see the real estate exchange and financing business streamlined.

For instance, it’s estimated that 50% of major corporations will switch to blockchain business technology this year. Blockchain by itself is rocking every industry including real estate.

I’ll introduce blockchain and bitcoin below in more detail. In a nutshell, blockchain is the software platform that’s underneath Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin is well known, it’s actually blockchain that has the best potential for all industries.  For some of us, this change is exciting. Change means opportunity.

I know you’re curious about Bitcoin cryptocurrrencies and blockchain, but understanding them technically is really tough. You don’t need to be an expert, but you may want to know what is driving this coming change.




2018 Housing Market Reports

Check out the Sacramento Housing Market, San Francisco housing market, Los Angeles Housing Market and Florida housing market forecasts.

The Blockchain Opportunity

Instead of being threatened by the progress to digital real estate via blockchain and other technology, Realtors, lawyers, investors, builders, property managers and mortgage agents should welcome the opportunity of this new era.

Here’s a small list of blockchain startups that have jumped at it.

And the key opportunity might be in first mover advantage. Realtors might redesign their brokerage to utilize RETS IDX listings, AI driven marketing, and blockchain-based transactions.  It’s early, but the right time to learn.




What’s coming is an era of weakening monopolies, greater efficiencies and perhaps lower home prices.

You can imagine how the establishment would like to maintain the old paper-based, complicated transaction process that allows the banks and big real estate brokerages to guarantee their cut of this $116 Trillion dollar global real estate market.



New tech entrepreneurs relish usurping the dominant role in an entire, lucrative industry. They’re motivated. The high rising price of bitcoin should tell you that something big is brewing. They’re already at it in real estate.

Real estate sales using Bitcoin or Ethereum are adding legitimacy to the use of cryptocurrencies in the real world” — Manuel Perez of the Coral Gables, Fla.-based Elizabeth Perez Team. Screen Capture courtesy of Housing Wire

What’s Driving the Push to Blockchain and AI?

The real cause of this future is the high cost of real estate, monopolies, and the over-complicated/regulated process that real estate professionals must follow to buy and sell homes. It raises prices and slows transactions. And younger consumers don’t like the ring of “million dollar homes.”  They like this new technology because they think it will save them money.

From smart contracts to Bitcoin currency to fractional ownership, and artificial intelligence driven buying and selling, the entire real estate industry is about to be streamlined. From finance to construction, blockchain technology in particular is about overwrite the sector. Real Estate will be hard to recognize.

But can the big companies control blockchain to keep the market to themselves? That’s very unlikely since blockchain opens everything up to innovation, transparency, ease of purchase, and lower costs. Buyers will find that very hard to ignore, as will real estate professionals. The smart Realtors will be on this now, to give themselves an advantage in branding and expertise.

Realtors may not have to be blockchain experts, they can use the myriad of blockchain applications and services that will be available. It could be a period of entrepreneurship and creativity for Realtors, and for home buyers and sellers as well.



Who Guards the Status Quo?

Brokers, marketing, banking, retail agents and others facing sudden disruption may enjoy their monopoly and legal power to keep the old system intact.

This new wave of well funded cryptocurrency, blockchain and Realtech startups change the game and playing field. The new blockchain based system is a completely new approach to transferring ownership of property from one party to another. With Cryptocurrency, the banks, mls associations, forex companies, and others could be completely bypassed.

Even the mortgage industry is seeing new startups that offer reduced costs, fees and fraud, and improved efficiency, speed, and transparency.

 

Sharing is Good for your Social Life — Make Sure others get an introduction to the new technology on FB or Linkedin

Change from Many Directions and It’s Just Starting

The future of real estate will see disruption from many sources, technological, cultural, financial, and political.

The $36 Trillion US real estate industry is pressured by issues of complexity, affordability, frustrated demand, housing development restriction, rising interest rates, competition, big data, blockchain, and more. They’ll all play a role in a complicated forecast amidst an uncertain economic outlook beyond 2020.

Will you be buying your next home via an app using Bitcoin? Should you even buy a home, or rent? It’s not only about techno changes in 2018. The future of real estate involves lifestyle, economic, and investment factors.




Will Realtors and Financier’s Roles Change?

While removing the middleman might be the uber utopia for tech-obsessed 20-Somethings hoping for a price break on a million dollar house, it will not be easy to push big banks, MLS’s, state govnernments, and real estate companies out of the future of real estate. Politics, law, habit, and need for expertise will ensure Realtors don’t fade away too quick.

Propy is a new blockchain based online brokerage serving the world

Realtors, MLS associations, and big brokers control the mls data and in this day age data monopoly is how you eliminate competition or gain monopolies.

A number of tech driven competitors are disrupting and trying to weaken the current megalopoly in real estate markets. Thus far they haven’t been able to land a decisive blow. Big Data may be the weapon to topple the traditional system unless the big brokerages learn to utilize it somehow.

Technology driven companies such as Zoocasa, Zillow, and Compass are growing fast and making inroads on various MLS and Realtor competitors. The fact that the majority of Realtors have few listings or sales and aren’t well supported by the big brand brokerages means these tech companies have opportunity with their own hungry masses of agents. The fact the big brokerages don’t share information with agents now, tells you that Realtors would jump ship quick.

And for consumers, a reduction of commissions and expansion of marketing capabilities means consumers might gain from new tech entrants. And in terms of streamlining, it’s estimated that closings could be reduced to 10% of their current duration.

Yet the MLS associations and brokers hold a lot of data and can keep it out of the hands of real estate startups. Legal battles are raging, but the MLS’s aren’t winning the wars.

Propify, an Australian startup, hopes to leverage the technology into a one-stop shop for home buyers. Drawing from various listing sites, governmental databases and social media, the software company aggregates all available information about available properties into a single space, sourced from a blockchain – from Real Estate Weekly.

Who Owns Big Data?

Big Data is owned by big tech, finance and retail companies right now and the battle over who gets access is being waged. The data is so important, it stands to reason that a few companies would not be permitted by government to own it or leverage it for massive monopolistic wealth. However, that conceivably could happen in the Amazon era.

If everything from finance, real estate to AI driven robots, having it locked and controlled by any money hungry company could bring the system and economy to halt. Big data and open source access will have to be made a basic freedom.

For that reason, how could the NAR or MLS or anyone hope to monopolize their data and market access? It’s a losing battle.





The Coming Blockchain Revolution in Real Estate

According to Forbes, real estate venture investors deployed over $5 billion in real estate technology in 2017. That’s 150 times the $33 million invested in 2010. Blockchain is just one part of that investment.

Blockchain technology is important to the commercial real estate market since it streamlines processes, reduces fraud and cuts costs

What is Blockchain?

A blockchain is a secure network of computers that creates as a living ledger for transactions. When the record is updated with new information — the signing of a contract, the movement of funds, the transfer of ownership — it is updated and time stamped in every computer simultaneously, whether there are two dozen or 2,000. The records are the blocks, the network is the chain — from Real Estate Weekly.

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency  may influence how real estate is transacted in future and who will participate in buying and selling.

Coinify states that blockchain will speed up real estate transaction, decrease fraud, and increase transparency. For those who worry about international money laundering and organized crime, Blockchain could cut police and investigation costs. Blockchain offers a real digital paper trail.

Blockchain leverages mls type housing data and makes it usable on a larger scale. So the potential power of blockchain systems will threaten the data monopolies that exist in some states and mls districts.

Direct Transaction between Buyers and Sellers

The rewards of listing on a blockchain accessible system will be too much for homeowners and real estate agents to resist.  With blockchain technology property and transaction information is published to a public ledger giving all parties access to the home-buying or leasing process.  Owners, tenants, operators, and service providers will have access to this stream of incorruptible data. The buyer and seller deal with each other directly.

According the IBREA, “Blockchain offers an open source, universal protocol for property buying, conveyancing, recording, escrow, crowdfunding, and more. It can reduce costs, stamp out fraud, speed up transactions, increase financial privacy, internationalize markets, and make real estate a liquid asset.”

How To Buy Real Estate Using Bitcoin

Yes, a lot of people want to know.  I’d advise reading this post on HGTV to get started. Will you still need a real estate agent? Yes, and a real estate lawyer to review all the documents. And these people are insured just in case something does go wrong.

However, make sure you trust the second party if you’re thinking of buying into real estate. “If you want to reverse the transaction due to any litigation, then you need both parties to be compliant,” says Jake. “Bitcoin transactions are not reversible.”  — HGTV




Bitcoin and Real Estate

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are highly volatile right now, however once they stabilize, homeowners will not balk at selling in Bitcoin. The bitcoin cryptocurrency is set to rock the banking and retail industries, so why not real estate?

Need to know how to Buy a House or Condo using Bitcoin?

Real estate can be a lucrative business yet the drive for cost savings and high prices makes players investigate and try out different solutions. Real estate agents, landlords, mortgage agents, and others have been reluctant to adopt software solutions for fear they would lose competitiveness. The future of real estate is technology in almost every area.

However, that intense competition is yet another driver of the kind of change that could see agents and brokerages disappear. I hope that’s not you, but let’s say the flock is culled. What kind of new real estate sales environment is being created and how will you adapt? There’s opportunity in everything.

Younger Buyers Love Choice and Apps

Millennials are the biggest, most wealthy group of consumers now and they’re proving to be brand agnostic and want open source everything. Throw in millions of wealthy young Chinese immigrants/investors, and you can guess that tradition in real estate is about to be replaced by a new culture — the Uber culture mostly online. On Tech.co, Boris Dzingarov suggested 3 factors will change real estate marketing greatly:

  • Video
  • Mobile devices
  • Online reputation management





Yet, many agents are using video, have already set up mobile friendly sites, and even dressed up their Linkedin and Facebook pages. And they’re not anymore disruptive than anyone else. I think what may mark the new agent is using technology and digital marketing to connect with more prospects.  What may be difficult for them though is that homebuyers and sellers may not accept their pitches. If you can’t go to them, then you’ll have to show up online so they can reach you.

If you have no digital marketing strategy to connect with prospects, make an impact, and remain visible online (top realtors are taking it all for themselves) then perhaps the forecast is as stormy as Dzhingarov is predicting.

Why Agents Will Still Be Needed

Currently, 80% of home purchases are conducted using Realtors, and given the various services they handle, it’s hard to conceive they would be made completely redundant by blockchain or other technology.

Here’s where we can’t do without them:

  • better knowledge of local neighborhoods
  • assessment and advice on contracts
  • real human advice on quality of the property instead of property data collected
  • price negotiation with buyer or sellers
  • spares you the anxiety of buying and selling real estate online
  • help you get a higher price through staging, presentation and sales support
  • arranges inspection and home showings – saving you time

The Outlook for Real Estate Brokers

I’d like to take a moment to discuss what I see happening in this industry. Here’s the top 15 disruptions that may hit the real estate biz in the coming years:

  1. Real Estate Teams – teams loaded with extra services will battle it out with discount brokers to offer better service, particularly in the luxury real estate market where Luxury realtors will go the extra mile.
  2. MLS Data Freely Available to Everyone – no secrets for realtors to use as a trump card. Homeowners will feed home stats to online vendors who will provide increasing marketing power for them.
  3. Social Media Growth – Realtors will expand their circle of contacts via Linkedin and Facebook, and home sellers will look to engage more buyers to get higher bids for their client’s properties. Social media engagement will keep them connected and actively top of mind to prospects, as other realtors impinge on all their clientele.
  4. Content Marketing – more sophisticated and engaging visual content such as interactive infographics and pdfs, and interactive home tours will let buyers drill down quickly to everything they want to know about the home and neighborhood.
  5. Sophisticated Video – slick videos with aerial shots and stunning quality will become templated much like WordPress web sites are now
  6. SEO & SEM– optimizing for whoever is looking for real estate or wants to prepare for sale. This means having a good SEO is critical for inbound marketing, link building and MLS listing optimization. PPC advertising and remarketing ads will play a role too.
  7. Trustworthiness – the insecurity of Uberization will mean parties will be scrutinized for their reputation and professional credibility. Those realtors that have this all laid out strategically will pass the cred test.
  8. Thought Leader/Advisor – generosity of key realty knowledge will influence because real estate is an expensive investment that the average Joe homebuyer doesn’t understand. The realtor’s role will evolve to become a trusted advisor.
  9. Complete Property Transactions Done Online – from bids to closing costs, every aspect of the transaction will be done online, perhaps via a large tablet device connected to a printer. See Realtypoint’s excellent post on this. 
  10. Google, NAR and CREA will lose control of the online realty market – homeowners will list with online entities for exposure and pay minimal fees.
  11. Property Management – More brokers and agents will move into the property management and mortgage business to create more relevant clients, retain them, and build visibility.
  12. More Real Estate Agents Will Go Out of Business – deals will disappear, commissions will fall and competition will be intense and only those with huge client bases will make it.
  13. Clients will gravitate to Large, insuring Finance Comapnies – these firms are capable of insuring transactions, because regular consumers are likely to make big mistakes. Right now of course you and your brokerage and (CMHC in Canada) or (FHA/PMI) in US provides it.
  14. Niche, Boutique Brokerages – they’ll have an edge in relevance, usefulness, and attraction to many buyers and sellers – particularly brokers that offer a la carte services, and prove they have specific types of buyers for a property (e.g., Chinese or Middle Eastern buyers).
  15. Intense Hyperlocal Focus – realtors and teams will use outdoor advertising and social media to dominate local markets.

The Uberization of real estate has already happened. I’m wondering which new Zillows and Trulias rise up to serve this new market? No doubt it’s being discussed in boardrooms right now. [Note: I was invited recently for interviews for a senior digital marketing position with a big, new up and coming lead generation business in Toronto].

Where Will You Be in 5 Years?

The point of this post is to ask you where you’ll be in the coming years and whether you will have initiated the steps to build your future realty business. It’s wise to start planning and connect with the people who will help you grow and sustain it.

What are you thoughts? What changes do you foresee? Will 2018 to 2020 look much different for you and your brokerage? What are you doing to help you survive and thrive in the blockchain era? 

Speaking of hot markets, read the forecast, outlook, and predictions for housing in Toronto, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Vancouver.

 

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Florida Housing Forecast 2018 2019 | Real Estate Trends in Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Housing Report 2018

A perfect storm of demand, supply and economic factors are making Florida an excellent a great place to buy real estate. See the price projections for the major cities below.

The housing market in Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Panama City, Sarasota, Naples, Fort Launderdale, and even Boca Raton are compelling real estate investment value propositions for snowbirds and other buyers in North America. As you’ll see, sunny and warm Florida home prices are quite reasonable.

Interest in buying Florida properties from buyers seems to grow and wane through the weeks and months. Although January and February are a lull in demand, the Florida economy is too strong to see that continue. The recent tax changes may discourage speculative investment for a while but buyers will be back in the spring.




The Florida housing market in 2017 was characterized by a lack of new construction, big price reductions on new condos, a disappearance of South American property buyers, softened house and condo prices, and of course, low taxation rates. If the glut of condo building in Miami is now complete, then we may see upward pressure on condo prices.

Choosing Your Florida Home Style

The variety of homes in Florida is astonishing.  From modern 3 bedroom bungalows to condos in towering buildings to quaint beach houses to spacious multi-million dollar mansions, you can have your dream life, walk the beaches, shop for hours, and never have to shovel snow.  For a lot of buyers, that’s a compelling value proposition.

With more babyboomers hoping to retire somewhere nice, and who have been holding onto their old home because they have nowhere to go, will find Florida a compelling value proposition in real estate investment.

The Houston real estate market, San Diego Real Estate market, Seattle real estate market, Vancouver real estate market and even the Costa Rica Real Estate market are also preferred destinations for retirees and those looking for luxury homes.

PWC in its new major US housing report names Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach as the 3rd highest target destination from migrating people from other cities in the US.

The luxury real estate market was hit hard in Florida, and there is an oversupply of luxury homes. However, interest and sales are expected to rebound (From US and soon Canadian buyers as the CAD falls), and homes for sale in Fort Lauderdale, Naples, and Miami are expected to rise.

8 Things to Consider Before you Buy a Home in Florida

Whether you’re buying a second home/vacation home or you’re considering moving to warm, sunny Florida, consider a few matter beforehand:

  1. can you afford to live in the region or neighborhoods you have targeted?
  2. which cities and neighborhoods are safe and pleasant to live in?
  3. summers are hot and humid. Can you take the heat and the indoor life?
  4. do you like golf, fishing, walking the beach, boating, and water sports?
  5. how well can you run your business from Florida and how much back and forth travel will you need to do?
  6. what is the actual cost of living?
  7. how much will your mortgage payments be for the next 10 years?
  8. is there a true demand for your area of work/profession?

Some people love Florida and some don’t like it at all. If you could live there during the winter only, as many snowbirds from New York, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Washington do, it’s might be a no brainer. All you’d have to focus on is finding a home and getting it at a bearable price.




Florida’s $1 Trillion Dollar Economy

Florida’s economic performance was outstanding again in 2017 which is why it was attracting so many new residents and home buyers. Orlando’s population growth was 18% over the last and disposable income growth over the last 5 years was an amazing 12.8%.

South Florida’s population hit 6 million for the first time, and Miami Dade hit 2.7 million residents. Tampa Sarasota region was in the top 10 nationally for population growth and Orlando saw 48,000 new residents arrive.

That’s generated strong demand for housing and rental units in South Florida.

As reported in Tampabay.com, the Florida economy will reach $1 Trillion this year and $1.074 trillion in 2019. Florida is an important state having 5% of the US economy but 10% of new jobs. Tourism and housing were the key industries.

Hurricane Irma and the destruction of the citrus crop have suppressed the Florida economy and the state has difficulty attracting skilled workers. Wages do lag, yet real estate in Florida overall is very reasonably priced. Only Texas is a better bargain.

With the Florida economy rolling along nicely, there’s no reason to believe there is a downside to buying property in the Sunshine State. And sunshine is a key benefit for most buyers here.

Interest in Orlando and Tampa real estate has been particularly strong and that’s likely due to the lower prices. Even homes in Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale are half the price as those in Miami.

However the economies in Tampa and Orlando are holding their own and drawing in new residents due to lower than expected prices on condos and homes.

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Effects

The experts are still struggling with the affects of the Feds tax bill, amidst a housing slowdown and slightly rising interest rates.

What the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act does mean:

  1. sales of homes between $750,000 to $1 million will slow because loan interest isn’t tax deductible any longer
    purchases from New York buyers seems to be growing
  2. income tax cuts for almost everyone means people will have more money to buy real estate and pay mortgages
  3. the reform retains sellers’ capital gains exemption, which excludes the first $500,000 in profits for couples and the first $250,000 for single filers

Let’s not forget Florida’s benefit of no state tax. Combine that with the reduced federal tax cuts, and companies that are bringing their manufacturing and head offices back to the US should find Florida an ideal place to come home to.

Florida Home Prices

According to Zillow, home prices in Florida average $216,000 which is up 7.3% from last year. They’re expected to rise more slowly in 2018 at 2.5%. By the end of 2018, the average home price will be $221,000. That has to look good to home sellers in Boston and New York, as well as Canadian buyers in Toronto, who have home values that rival the highest in Miami.

Chart courtesy of Zillow.com. Comparison of home prices with California, Texas, New York and Nevada 2018

Florida Home Prices and Predictions

City Zillow Home Price
Zillow Price End of 2018
Miami $295,400 302000
Hialeah $200,700 247000
Fort Myers $193,100 209000
Saint Petersburg $163,500 197000
Tampa $163,000 204000
Tallahassee $161,600 172000
Orlando $155,400 184000
Jacksonville $140,300 168000
Pensacola $121,000 143000
Fort Lauderdale $293,200 292000
Boca Raton $328,500 326000
Naples $330,800 330000
Sarasota $273,200 273000
Miami Beach $381,100 365,000
Kissimmee $174,600 183000
Port St Lucie $204,000 211000
Cape Coral 220200 226000
Pembroke Pines 288900 289000
Clearwater 213800 220000

When is the best time to buy real estate?  Find out more about the best investments in 2018 including investing in real estate in 2018.

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Toronto Housing Market Crash – 15 Reasons why the Toronto Real Estate Bubble is About to Burst?

Toronto Real Estate Market Crash Overdue in 2018/2019?

When we begin counting the many reasons why and when the Toronto real estate estate market might implode, we might agree it is a possibility now.  TREB’s market report next week will tell us if it’s already started.

Is the Big Toronto housing crash coming in 2018? Would it precede or follow a Toronto stock market crash? In this post we’re going to explore the crash factors, some of which are getting noisy. Check here if you’re looking for the latest US housing bubble report.

The Ontario government’s disturbing strategy now is now working within an economy on the downturn and a smaller tax base. Wynne is rightfully concerned about the TPP trade deal threat which holds little promise for Ontario manufacturing. With the US pulling auto manufacturing back into the US, our key industry is threatened.

Companies here are facing a rising loonie and looking longingly south at the low tax rates there. You can read the other reasons for a doom and gloom picture for the Toronto housing market below.

If there’s been a perfect time to sell your home, this is it.

And with US President Donald Trump’s 2018 state of the union speech, it looks like the US is on its way to its biggest economic growth in history. Without the full benefits of NAFTA, the Canadian economic outlook is troubled, especially if oil prices rise only moderately, putting the economy in no mans land.

And for Ontario, the picture is less positive:

  1. the TSX stock exchange is one of the worst performing in the world
  2. the NAFTA deal may be cancelled or manfacturing exports down
  3. the TPP deal would open up Ontario to cheap Asian competitors
  4. the price of oil is rising and raising Ontario’s costs of doing business
  5. real estate is very expensive
  6. rent to income ratios are extremely high in GTA
  7. interest rates are high
  8. consumer debt is maxed out
  9. the Ontario government is anti-business and anti-housing growth
  10. Ontario’s taxes can’t generate enough money for infrastructure improvements
  11. the CAD is rising and eroding Ontario’s competitive advantage
  12. Canada has been near last in direct foreign investment for many years
  13. US tax rates have plummeted giving companies reason to relocate there
  14. cash strapped, stressed out Millennials will finally give up on the dangerous gamble of buying a home for $600k+
  15. the Federal Government may raise the Capital gains tax
The Toronto Stock exchange one of the worst in the world, and is tumbling in 2018
Canadian beginning strong rise against falling US Dollar.

Are Canadians thinking crash?

From the Bank of Canada governor to expert authors, there’s a dull roar of people warning about a Toronto housing crash. Are they contibuting and pushing or is this just plain fact?

Now we’re into 2018, home sales are slow, sellers are definitely getting nervous, and younger buyers more frustrated. More worrisome is the recent troubles in the stock market, with the rising dollar and rising oil prices which just hit $66 per barrel.

The debate raged last year, but it looks like Douglas Porter (his most recent thoughts) might have it right for a 2018 forecast.

Here’s Douglas Porter again on Feb 1 saying there is no immediate danger:

 

The Americans too are worried about a housing bubble in 2018, yet their economy is on a definite upswing. The amount of money being repatriated into the US (Apple bringing in $450 billion) is incredible. All that investment money is coming back home to create jobs in the US. Of course there will be a spillover into Canada.

Huge personal debt and a vulnerable economy combined with Millennial desperation and huge immigration growth are fueling some sort of event.

Everyone’s wondering what will start the avalanche. The election of the PC party in June could create the euphoria and optimism that will inflate prices severely next summer.  There’s some risk in it, however the benefits will be tremendous for anyone in Ontario looking to buy their own home.

“This is either a pause in the bubble and inflation is going to resume into even more stratospheric levels, or this is the start of a hard landing,” said Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager at RichardsonGMP and author of “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash.”

Should you list and sell your house now? Will interest rates and inflation, and government policies lead to a catastrophic housing and economic collapse in Canada in 2018/2019? Could our prime minister mismanage the economy?

In the booming US, they’re asking similar questions about a housing market crash. That would make a Toronto market crash more plausible. Yet many see the market ready to boom. Very confusing, but let’s take a look at the Toronto market crash scenario first and see all the factors to consider before you buy or sell your home.



2018, 2019, 2002 or Beyond?

If it’s not a question of if the Toronto market crash might happen, then might a questio of when — 2018 or 2019? Or will the crash threat simply fade as demand for homes weakens? Lots of uncertainty and not much consensus.

There’s a list of the crash factors however if they line up in a certain squence, it might be enough to set the house of cards plummeting. Is the key crash factor financial, political, or would it be a sudden loss of consumer confidence in real estate and the Canadian economy?

Much of Canada’s prosperity comes via natural resources and trade with the US. Despite all the optimism, trade restrictions (Bombardier loss) by the US are no joke as are falling commodity prices. And if you were a bank, would you want to lend out billions to young first time home buyers in the face of an unstable government and economy?

I just read a story about a company that is ready to help buyers rent to buy so they don’t have to pay a downpayment in some cases. Is the same scenario we had in 2006 and 2007?




Provincial Governments and Drastic Actions

The Ontario Premier impulsively reacted with the foreign buyers tax which helped cool demand, but the crash may not be about the flame. It may be about the fundamentals of a Canadian economy which has the least direct foreign investment of any G20 country and a shaky trade deal with one country which seems to blocking imports of our wood and oil.

The Ontario, BC, and Canadian federal governments have been so negative, repressive, and unsupportive of the contribution of real estate to the economy, that those actions are the key to a disaster. Continued suppression of land development for housing is creating a true housing crisis.

1 million new immigrants are arriving in Canada by 2020, it’s sets the stage for desperate buying (the dreaded housing bubble) and bigger opportunities for rental property investors.

Some experts suggest a crash is impossible, while other expert predictions (from TD’s Bank President), support the theory that rising unemployment and rising mortgage rates would be needed to begin the landslide.

Canadians have one of highest per capita debt levels of any G7 nation. With the NAFTA deal in trouble, we could see those rise. So when someone asks “should I sell my house” in Toronto, the response depends on whether the government will change course and help in a massive housing development program.

crashahead
Image courtesy of look4itknysna.co.za





What Causes Housing Bubbles to Form and then Burst?

What causes a housing market bubble?  What factors could burst Toronto’s bubble and possibly send the economy into a skid? Most of those factors are listed below. The key is rocketing demand (like we saw in spring 2017) combined with intensive government meddling, during a time of economic prosperity.

The key may be market susceptibility, instability, caused by investor uncertainty. After a charged up price index, an event occurs that sends investors scurrying fast.  It could be foreign investors or Canadian investors. Only if the economy suddenly loses its strength and people find themselves without jobs will they default and abandon their underwater mortgages, as they did during the US economic recesssion. When bank governors begin to use vague, waffling language, it creates the kind of uncertainty investors dislike.

Bank governor Poloz said that interest rates could move “in either direction.” He emphasized that the Canadian economy was still highly susceptible to shocks, and a cooling housing market combined with debt worries are still worthy of concern – from the Fool.ca  

Should I sell my house in Toronto and should I buy a condo in the Toronto area?

Find out how the Toronto Real Estate market shaping up.   Check out more detailed market updates and forecasts for of MississaugaVaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, and Bradford.

Vancouver’s real estate market has shown volatility of late. It looked like the market was coming back but it has leveled off again.

The lack of rentals is the “biggest pain point for our city,” With 100,000 people moving to the Toronto area annually, the region needs about 30,000 rental units. Toronto has about 1,500 coming on stream” from Toronto Star report.

If you’re thinking of selling your home to get in on this Toronto market winfall, you need to find a real estate agent. The market might not burst until 2018, but it could heat up badly in April, May and June to begin the freefall.

richmondhill4

What exactly happens in a real estate market crash? Here’s one answer:

If a bubble were to burst, the real estate market would slow to a crawl. “You’d probably see very little transaction volume,” said University of British Columbia professor Thomas Davidoff. “People would be locked into their homes and their mortgages.”  




In a crash, you couldn’t sell your home since buyers would just wait forever for the market to hit bottom and fewer could get financing to buy it.

Lots of questions to ask such as “is this just a monster luxury home problem?” If the market plummets, what will it mean if I have an underwater mortgage and can’t renew at higher mortgage rates?  Are my relatives wise to buy right now? Will a crash have an effect on employment in the Toronto area? Consider this from a report on CBC:

1 in 10 wiped out by 20% correction — A badly managed downturn in real estate prices could wipe out the wealth of a large number of Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers. We need to recognize that young families are the most likely group to be plunged underwater by a nasty housing correction,” said CCPA economist David Macdonald.

Sound scary? Then let’s take a real, no holds barred look at the real estate market in Toronto and the factors that could create a crash because our assumptions might be false.

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This report from the CBC tells us a lot about the whole business of forecasting crashes (and that they haven’t happened)

Prices keep rising. Bearish predictions that Canada’s housing market is about to crash, and calls for the government to cool hot markets, have been around for at least that long.

In fact, prices have risen steadily since the recession of the early 1990s and even the dip during the financial crisis of 2009 was a mild one. “Da Bears may some day be right, especially on the hottest markets, but getting the timing down is half the challenge,” Porter said. A Goldilocks market is not too hot, not too cold. But Canada’s housing market is running both hot, cold and lukewarm all at the same time.  From http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bmo-porter-housing-crash-1.3493809

Nostradamus and the Pundits

Some experts are calling for a housing crash in 2017, based on overheated prices, yet they don’t discuss what might be done to alleviate the problem in the Toronto region. The key issue for the Toronto real estate market, (as it is in the US market) is a lack of housing supply but there are other factors outline below. A host of government leaders have sought to crush land development and have quietly gotten away with their policies. But now the spotlight is aimed directly on them.

Could Premier Kathleen Wynne arrange to cancel the Places to Grow legislation and open up new land to ease home prices? Isn’t that a more sensible thing to do rather than providing more incentives for first time buyers who  are up to their ears in consumer debt pondering a very high priced condo or house purchase? Is Kathleen Wynne is precipitating risk factor for a big housing crash in Toronto? Will interest rates rise so buyers would be less likely to bid on homes and condos?

Some would suggest that she and the Liberals are too ideologically driven to flex on that one. Yet Wynn’s approval rating is now below 20%. That is really low so easing up when the Federal government is crack down on mortgages doesn’t make a lot of sense. Her super low rating means Ontario doesn’t want her as Premier anymore and out of desperation facing years more in office, she could do something risky to seek approval. Wynne is a sell now factor.

More Foreign Investment Needed

The high demand for homes and property from foreign investors from China and the Middle East and the US, has been  a wonderful thing for Ontario and Canada. If not for real estate, the world has no interest in investing in Canada. Foreign investment is at its lowest level in 60 years which means no one is going to save us.

Federal Justice minister Bill Morneau recently announced measures to cool the Toronto market, however experts feel the Feds can’t do much, in fact the Feds have said that themselves.  They believe the provinces should be managing their own affairs. That brings it back to the Wynne government who has used risky, sudden measures. So when ministers start using words such as fragile, you’ve been given fair warning about a potential crash.

Justin Trudeau should be travelling and posing for cameras on the subject of why investing in Canada is wise. New free trade deals with ailing South American countries won’t work because we have nothing to export and they don’t buy our stuff. Without financing, the Ontario companies don’t stand a chance competing against well funded foreign firms. A low dollar and access to the US market is all we have.

If the 2018 Toronto Housing Market does Crash

If a housing crash is imminent, you’d be wise to unload your property now during the winter. Is 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth missing out on the greatest real estate cashout of all time? Up or down market, a wise person would answer the question of “Should I sell my home now” is in the affirmative.

Toronto Housing Market Crash Factors

What are the economic and real estate market factors that affect your selling decision?

  • strength of the US economy
  • GTA economy and employment starts to fall
  • Canadian consumer debt reaching lmits
  • NAFTA agreeement conflicts and refusals
  • US restrictions on imports from Mexico and China begin to topple their housing markets
  • immigration levels drop off
  • add on taxation by Ontario, city and Toronto governments
  • soaring home prices fall
  • moderate new home construction – abandoned security deposits
  • government meddling with property use
  • mortgage rates rising faster
  • number of millennials buying homes drops or house prices are out of reach
  • Wynn and Trudeau don’t have a handle on the economy
  • political pressure to keep home prices up to protect homeowner’s equity and credit situations

What the Heck Happened in Vancouver?

The booming Vancouver real Estate market plunged not long after the foreign buyers tax was implemented. That hurt speculators and Asian buyers who were finding a way to invest in Canada. It was good for BC renters, but not good for Vancouver. Foreign investors will have lost some trust in the BC government. These sorts of radical taxes and regulations don’t go over well with investors.

Unfortunately, the pain of high rents and no vacancies was too much for the Vancouverites to to bear and they pushed the tax through. The Asian money soon transfered to Los Angeles and Seattle where potential is so high.
Will the bubble burst in Toronto soon? A lot of buyers and sellers and mortgage lenders are struggling with that question.




Kathleen Wynn and John Tory aren’t talking about the crash possibility and the various mayors in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora Newmarket etc aren’t saying much either. They’re enjoying the tax haul, but they realize Canadian consumer debt is a huge matter. If mortgage rates and unemployment rise, we’ve got a crash type situation on our hands.

With high home prices come new home construction and if you’ve been to Aurora Newmarket, Bradford and King township lately you’ve seen the huge growth in new communities. But the demand far outstrips supply. The fact is Toronto is a hot market and prices aren’t slowing.

Is this the best year to buy rental income property?  Read these posts on best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Does the Past Tell Us Anything?

If the past does tell us anything, it tells us we’ll probably make the same mistakes again about forecasting crashes and bubble downturns.  If we look at Toronto home prices over the past 60 years, we’ll see that they’ve just kept rising. Even the great recession cause only a small blip and the US recession of 2007 didn’t even leave a dent. As long as there’s a lack of development land, the price will speed up like an angry commuter on Indy 400 (or 404 or 401) and inevitably crash.

finposthomestoronto2017

The last thing we’re left with in pondering the possibility of a Toronto housing crash in 2017 is what starts an avalanche?  Is a stock market crash in 2019 a possibility that will affect your decision to buy?

Here’s a few resources on the bubble issue:

Housing market has ‘low probability’ for collapse: RBC report

Why Every Investor Needs to Worry About Canada’s Housing Bubble

Hands off my housing bubble!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-canada-real-estate-1.3822489

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