Calgary Housing Market Improves Slightly vs Last Year
CREB’s year-end report on the Calgary housing market showed home sales were down 3% from last December, but still well up from long-term averages.
Time moves quickly and the past performance of the Calgary real estate market is only a weak guide as to where it’s heading. With Federal deregulation and increases in exports to an energy-desperate US market, Alberta’s economic strength supports strong housing demand in Calgary. Home buyers and rental investors will be acting on the opportunity.
And migration trends are strong too, with many Canadians looking to move to Calgary.
The lower sales are likely attributable to the interest rate locked-in effect, high mortgage rates, high home prices, and lower supply of affordable homes. Higher priced homes are selling well given the strength of the Alberta oil market.
December’s Home Sales Stats
In December, there were 2989 homes for sale. Overall, on an annual basis, total residential benchmark home prices rose 7% YoY.
“Population gains over the past several years have supported sales activity that has outperformed long-term trends. In 2024, sales would likely have been higher if there was more supply choice, especially in the lower price ranges,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®.
Lurie noted in CREB’s last market news release that supply will continue to be a problem throughout 2025. CREB’s own forecast will be released Jan 21st.
In December 2024, year over year, sales declined 2.9%, new listings dropped .7%, while inventory grew tremendously by 37.7% to reach 2.26 months of supply (+41.9% YoY). Despite the reduction in rent in prices in Calgary, and the increase in supply of row and apartments, prices of those types climbed in tune with house prices.
Is Calgary Still a Great Place to Buy a Home?
We’ll get into the US trade controversy below, but what’s important to know that Calgary is still the best long-term location in Canada. Here’s why:
- Strong global demand for oil and natural gas
- Massive capacity with improving technology
- Future pipline across Canada which would open exports to Europe
- US sanctions against Russia, Iran and other enemy nations
- Transmountain pipeline ensure 1 million barrels minimum exported
- US demand for heavy crude will be insatiable in next 5 years
- Incoming Poliviere government is pro-energy and for de-regulation
Alberta’s oil production and political influences on it are very complex thus expert oil economists struggle to see the future clearer to make viable forecasts.
US tariffs and trade wars will mar all economic activity and send the Canadian economy into a recession if President Trump goes through with them. The tariffs on Canadian exports to the US are an extremely regressive idea that will impair the US economy which isn’t ready for Trump’s economic plan.
It could very well be the US will not have sufficient oil supply to keep oil pricesdown. With oil hitting $80 a barrel last week, the signals are clear that oil in the short term could rocket upward. The ensuing pressure on Trump could cause him to adjust his trade tactics.
Currently, he expects to keep acquiring (WCS) Canadian crude at a discount, but that benefit will surely come under deep scrutiny.
Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast
Royal LePage Calgary predicts aggregate home prices will rise 4% over 2025 to $728,104. Detached single-family home prices are projected to increase 4.5% while condominiums would rise 2% to $278,154 by the end of 2025 – up from $272,700 currently.
They believe home prices will be supported by growth in the residential attached and townhome segment, attracting first-time buyers because these property types match buyer’s needs for affordability and size.
CREB’s 2025 forecast conference will be held Tuesday, January 21st with Ann Marie Lurie speaking at 10:50 AM on the Calgary housing market outlook. The conference location is BMO Centre, located in downtown Calgary’s Stampede Park at 20 Round Up Way SE.
The 2025 Challenge for the Oil Sands
The return of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States and his 2.0 economic agenda, some concerns about Canada’s economy and Alberta’s ability to export its energy products to the world exist.
During his last term however, tariff threats existed yet Calgary and Alberta weren’t harmed so fears were unfounded. With the TransMountain pipeline in place, carbon tax and production cap defeated, healthy oil prices and energy demand, 2025 could be a booming year for Alberta and the City of Calgary. The Canadian oil market forecast and Calgary’s economic outlook are challenged for sure. As usual, politics will influence the economy, housing market, and the Canadian stock market.
The big wildcard is interest rates and mortgage rates. Currently, given the sudden rise of US tariffs when the US itself can’t supply consumer and business demand, CPI and producer prices will rise.
High mortgage rates and high home prices spell big pain for Calgary homeowners hoping to refinance and not be hit too hard with big mortgage payment increases. If the Trump tariffs stick too hard, the BoC will likely drop rates much further for the low mortgage rates needed.
The Controversy over Canada’s Oil Exports
As home to the world’s largest oil reserves, Alberta has immense, untapped potential. And with the opening of the Transmountain pipeline, more heavy crude can be exported. However, production may exceed shipment volumes. On the good side, Alberta’s energy industry is being freed to pursue its incredible potential.
That will have a massive impact on Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton’s housing markets.
The Trudeau threat to Alberta’s industry is serious but will disappear with the 2025 election, should he decide to call one. Unleashing the Alberta production will have a positive impact on Federal government tax revenues which is good for Canada.
While the Liberals have regained some support recently, their political approach is clearly a misfit for the new vision of Canada everyone is seeing now.
Alberta Premier’s Danielle Smith however is taking an unpopular approach by not signing on with the rest of Canada in standing up to Trump, who is quite willing to push Canada into recession. It’s my own opinion that President Trump isn’t fully serious about these actions, and would only like to see the Woke Liberal government disappear and that Canada will grow a spine, and live up to military and other financial responsibilities. He’s threatening Europe in the same way.
It’s important for all of us to discourage Trudeau’s actions and move vote to remove him as Prime Minister. An election is the right response and deregulation will give our country a big boost.
With the rise of Alberta Premiere Danielle Smith and the demise of Prime Minister J Trudeau in 2025, Alberta will be relieved of the economic damaging carbon tax and emissions cap, enjoy the boost of lower interest rates, US economic growth and the end of damaging regulatory restrictions on oil and gas exports from Alberta.
Danielle Smith’s rise in political influence was welcomed by Canadians, however without compassion for Canadians, her political stock might be ruined. Being aligned with Kevin O’leary who has said he’s okay about a US takeover of Canada, is a seriously bad move politically.
It’s important for Alberta to continue to diversify its economy and use its financial windfall to grow technology and agricultural output — and use its pro-capitalist beliefs to lead the country.
A Powerful Economy Not Likely to be Stopped
Hopeful emigrants to Canada will find Calgary’s economy much more promising than Vancouver, Montreal or Toronto. Calgary’s more diversified economy boosted by oil revenues, is surely going to grow in the next 5 years.
In the US with the backlash against costly, inflation-generating alternative energy and oil production restrictions, the stage is set for a return of the US economy and consequently Alberta’s economy. Wages in Calgary continued to rise with total employment surpassing 1 million people. Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith announced that 90% of all jobs created in Canada were in Alberta. Wages will support a strong demand for homes and likely continue to push home prices upward.
The issue with Calgary’s residential market is a lack of affordable homes. As buyers return to lower mortgage rates in 2025, the stage is set for strong price gains in all housing types in the city.
Long Term Supply and Price Trends in Calgary
Calgary Home Prices vs Supply
Alberta’s Strong Economy Supporting a Health Housing Market
It’s oil and gas that drive Calgary’s housing market, the best in Canada. Rising oil prices and growing output and sales could put strong upward pressure on home prices.
According to a CBC report, every $1 rise in oil price brings a $630,000 boost to Alberta. Alberta’s own revenue forecasts are based on a continuous $74 oil price for years which may be too low given the likely economic outlook in the US (current oil price $80).
Alberta had a CAD$10.4 Billion dollar surplus for fiscal year 2023/2024.
Alberta was seeing record migration inflows at levels that make the 1980’s surge look pale. Most of the migrants are arriving from Ontario with lesser numbers from BC and Quebec. As of last March, the population of the province surpassed 4.8 million, making this province an economic force that supports the rest of the country. Potentially, the population could surpass 5 million by Dec 2025. Growing anti-immigrant policies should support job opportunities for Canadians, lower social costs, and reduce demand for housing from current levels, thus easing home prices and rent prices in Alberta.
However, the strong draw to Alberta could be a catalyst for higher home prices ahead.
Calgary’s Population Forecast
Calgary’s population rose beyond 1.6 million in 2023.
An expected avalanche win by Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in the next election could bring even more freedoms and economic strength from 2025 onward. The trend is moving back to Conservatives globally as debt-fueling liberal governments are failing. An early Canadian Federal election is also a distinct possibility.
While jobs, incomes and people grow wildly in the province, housing supply is not. In fact, housing starts in 2023 fell. This bodes poorly for an expected jump in population, especially 20 to 40 year old Canadians wanting to start families.
The cities of Vancouver, Kelowna, Toronto, Mississauga, and Montreal. likely won’t see much relief in the coming years either as the will to build remains low. The fact is that current home owners and real estate investors, and banks don’t want to see home prices fall. Policies will followed that support higher prices.
Add on inflation, and it’s a continuous headache for all Canadians.
International investors with a long term investment strategy should compare what you can buy in Calgary for $460,000 vs what you’ll get in the Vancouver market or Toronto market or Montreal housing market and you can see the long term investment advantages. Calgary is a much easier place to do business and buy real estate.
Which are The Best Neighbourhoods to Buy a Home in Calgary?
As a former Calgary resident, I can tell you there are many excellent neighbourhoods, with great schools, shopping, and recreation. All of it is accessible.
If you enjoy exercise, you may find the communities along the Bow River best. There is a cycling/walking trail on both sides and the mountain biking park at Canada Olympic Park is on it too. I chose to live the Northwest part of the city where the air is freshest and lots of hiking trails exist.
If you like beautiful views, Calgary has plenty. The northwest area of Calgary including those communities near Spy Hill, Coach Hill, and Nose Hill Park offer amazing views, some of the Rockies and foothills. Be ready for matching prices. The neighbourhoods on the northwest outskirts of the city offer unbelievable panoramic views of the Rocky Mountains to the west. Expect million dollar prices here. Homes on Spy Hill and Coach Hill offer incredible views of almost all of Calgary and the spectacular downtown skyline.
If water sports like sailing and windsurfing are important to you, Calgary has a number of man made lakes in the south end. The South has the largest selection of homes, with the Northwest next in number.
If you like cosmopolitan, the neighborhoods near downtown Calgary will appeal to you with the shops and walkability. And downtown’s plus 15 walkway system is close by too. Downtown city centre is where the condos are and virtually everything you need is here on 7th, 8th and 9th Avenue . The Bow River pathway is adjacent and Calgary’s convenient light rail transit can whisk you away to shopping in the south end of the city.
With the recession now largely in the rear-view mirror, and with the price of oil rising steadily, homebuyers and property investors will be looking at Calgary homes differently.
Conclusion about Calgary’s Real Estate Market
With the growth outlook in the United States and its insatiable appetite for heavy crude oil for manufacturing purposes, and an overall rising price of crude (with Iran/Russia) sanctions, the burden is on Canada’s oil sands to produce and ship to America.
Trump and Americans take this supply for granted, and have Alberta in a tough spot given export opportunities are constrained. The Polivier government has promoted an Energy East Pipeline which would intelligently solve Canada’s energy needs while ensuring oil and gas don’t have to flow through the US, thus letting Trump control Canada’s economy.
With such positive demand fundamentals, the Calgary housing market forecast remains positive, with the tariff issues likely solved soon. Wondering whether moving to Calgary is a wise idea?
Note: the preceding post is not meant as specific investment advice, but rather as a comparison of real estate investment or home buying opportunities. Please ensure you discuss all investments with a licensed professional.
