Calgary Real Estate Market Forecast 2018

Calgary Real Estate Market Forecast 2018

Calgary Housing Market and Update

What’s the forecast for Calgary’s housing market for 2018 and beyond? Right now, it’s cautiously optimistic for buyers who are in a good position to benefit from a growing pool of housing stock in Calgary in summer 2018 and into 2019.

I lived in Calgary for 10 years so I know the city intimately. And I have my favorite areas and neighbourhoods for sure.  It’s looking like an investor’s paradise right now.

The real estate market in Calgary has been in the dumps for several years, however with the price of oil hitting $71 now , it’s getting interesting for buying homes and rental property investment.




Expert’s forecasts of oil prices and Calgary home prices are proving to  be understated.  Oil prices have far exceeded what most experts said would happen.  The vacillating factors they say cause price change don’t seem to affect trends. Tough to take them seriously anymore.

Russia and Saudi Arabia desperately need higher prices. Photo courtesy of oilindustryinsight.com

OPEC is driving prices.  And there’s no reason why US shale oil producers would want to plummet the price anymore than Alberta tarsand producers would. It’s all political folly to talk prices down.




Does oil have a future in the overhyped world of green energy and high tech?  Let’s take a look at how has fared during the last 11 months against the NASDAQ.

From $42 to $71 per barrel, leaving the flatlining NASDAQ in the dust, Calgary’s oil patch is producing more and is more lean and profitable. Screencapture courtesy of bnnbloomberg.com

The Turnaround in Calgary Canada is Coming

The growth in the US oil wealth is obvious with Texas post hurricane development. And western shale oil producers are ramping up production

In Canada, benefits are slower. Taking a quick look at the Calgary Real Estate Board’s own housing stats, we see sales in April, 2018 dropped 20% year over year yet price fell only 3%.  Should investors take that resilience as further evidence that buying in Calgary isn’t such a bad option? Active listings are up 32% YoY.

What are the hot properties in Calgary? It has to be semi-detached homes in the east, northeast and east districts (+6% to 10% YoY).

Chart Courtesy of CREB.com

The uncertainty of Calgary’s housing market is agonizing.   Definitely a gamble as doubt lingers in Calgary, but buying in this vibrant young city is more preferable than rolling the dice in overregulated Vancouver or Toronto.

Recent improvements: Unemployment has dropped in the last 2 years and many believe the recovery is well underway — powered up by rising oil prices in US dollars x rising production numbers. Calgary’s economic growth lead Canada at 6.9% and that’s when oil prices were lower.

The Conference Board of Canada predicts Calgary will lead the nation at 2.4% growth in 2019.  And if oil prices rise as predicted, the loonie will rise, thus raising ROI in $CAD. Oil producers are lean and ready to generate big profits.

Share this post on Facebook and spread the word about Calgary’s (and Edmonton) comeback. It’s nice to see!

OPEC Willing to Throttle Output to Raise Oil Prices

Yes, Calgary is more than oil, but oil money is hard to ignore. Alberta needs the investment funds that flow in when Oil prices rise.

With OPEC cutting oil production output, and oil prices jumping past $71 a barrel (WTI) it’s awakening the oil patch. Alberta’s oil production rose to record levels in the last two months. Multiply that by rising prices and the economic outcome should be obvious. Mortgage red tape, rising interest rates, and pessimism won’t be enough to stop this train.

Twice now, during the early winter, prices rebounded. The price is showing peristence. If it does this for 3 more months, investors will being loading money back into the Alberta economy.

The political situation in the US is calming down, US economic health is improving rapidly, and by shutting out China, the US will be keeping billions and attracting more investment money.  Big picture looks really good. Prospect of a US housing collapse are low, even though Americans are very wary. That’s just smart.




If you’re considering moving to Calgary to work this year, be forewarned that Calgary is rated worst for affordability for lower income earners. Be prepared!

As of February 2018, average rent for an apartment in Calgary wass $1129 which is a 12% decrease from last year when the average rent was $1264 , and a 3.72% increase from last month when the average rent was $1087.  — from RentJungle Report

Calgary Housing Market Stats

As you’ll note sales are down from 18 months ago, and those were recession numbers. Most of the buying and selling were in the first half of the year, and there was a burst of buying due to the Fed mortgage rule changes.

It’s worse than it looks. However with the economy on the upswing and oil prices pushing through $55 to now $71 a barrel, and with gasoline prices rocketing further, there is some optimism about getting Alberta rolling again.




CREB suggests a steady path to recover and a market very similar to 2017. They suggested rising interest rates, tougher mortgage rules, and stagnating wages should calm the market this year. Financial people are always citing microeconomic factors and mortgage rates as housing market factors, however people buy when the economy is good and is promising.

The Stampede chuck wagon advertising auction created $3.2 million in bids. The oil patch seems to be optimistic!

Calgary Housing Report for February 2018

Calgary Monthly Housing Stats February 2018 January 2018 October 2017 October 2016 September 2017
Total Homes Sales 657 583 910 1031 919
New Listings 1,293 1,288 1,483 1,326 1,873
Active Listings 2,456 2,199 3,250 2,574 3,479
Median Price 495,000 474,000 474,250 464,000 482,000
Average Price 575,407 575,407 544,984 529,378 556,372
Pending Sales 58 102
Days on Market 45 55 44 42 42

Above stats courtesy of CREB

South Calgary ws the hot spot with 249 homes sold in February. The south has 799 homes listed for sale. 275 apartments were sold in downtown Calgary in February and there are 730 units available.  CREB expects sales of apartments to fall slightly in 2018, so buyers might have the upper hand this spring.

The Globe and Mail reports that 30% of Alberta’s new inventory remains unsold. This has to be one of the best buyers markets ever for investors, as long as you don’t mind waiting for the payoff.

And with housing prices predominantly in the $300k to $500k range, Calgary is still considered affordable, especially compared to Toronto and Vancouver where life is painful for renters, mortgage holders, and buyers in waiting.



Chart courtesy of CREB. Timeline of Calgary home prices

Even the experts are voicing caution, probably because they’re not sure themselves who has control of oil prices, and whether the BC pipeline issue will be solved. And BC doesn’t seem to be batting an eye, as gas prices there rose above $1.50 a litre.

Rachel Notley pointed out the BC premier’s ironic and hypcritical stance on Alberta oil with his new subsidies for LNG projects in BC. BC gasoline prices look like they’ll go sky high by May and June (passed $1.50) and the resistance might begin to wane at that point.

Gas Price shock – Photo Courtesy of CTV.ca

And besides the BC carbon tax, and the investment killing removal of the corporate tax rate cut, there’s also the matter of how much Vancouver’s housing market  and economy can take as interest rates rise too.

This is a text book test of the merit and wisdom of government regulation. BC’s government run auto insurance sector is already in deep trouble, rumoured to be on the verge of bankruptcy.

Not only does Alberta ease the prices BC drivers pay for gasoline, the Federal taxes on oil production are steep and distributed to the other provinces. Everyone benefits when Alberta’s energy sector thrives. It’s vital for Canada.

The WTI WCS price differential is a painful loss for Alberta Oil producers and of late it’s gotten worse due to pipeline bottlenecks. Will it get worse this year?

Alberta’s production capacity is impressive and has recovered by 7,000 m3 from 2 years ago. The issue is getting it to world markets.




With the US and global economies looking good (the recent tariff issue with China should be resolved), demand for energy and oil is forecast to be strong. BP forecasts a strong demand from developing countries.

International investors with a long term investment strategy should compare what you can buy in Calgary for $400,000 vs what you’ll get in the Vancouver market or Toronto market areas and you can see the long term investment advantages.  Calgary is a much easier place to do buiness and buy real estate.

Calgary’s spectacular Peace Bridge for pedestrians and cyclists spans the Bow River

Which are The Best Neighbourhoods to Buy a Home in Calgary?

As a long time resident, I can tell you there are many excellent neighbourhoods, with great schools, shopping, and recreation. All of it is accessible.

If you enjoy exercise, you may find the communities along the Bow River best. There is a cycling/walking trail on both sides and the mountain biking park at Canada Olympic Park is on it too.

If you like beautiful views, Calgary has plenty. The northwest area of Calgary including those communities near Spy Hill, Coach Hill, and Nose Hill Park offer amazing views, some of the Rockies and foothills. Be ready for matching prices. The neighbourhoods on the northwest outskirts of the city offer unbelievable panoramic views of the Rocky Mountains to the west. Expect million dollar prices here. Homes on Spy Hill and Coach Hill offer incredible views of almost all of Calgary and the spectacular downtown skyline.

If water sports like sailing and windsurfing are important to you, Calgary has a number of man made lakes in the south end. The South has the largest selection of homes, with the Northwest next in number.

If you like cosmopolitan, the neighborhoods near downtown Calgary will appeal to you with the shops and walkability. And downtown’s plus 15 walkway system is close by too.  Downtown city centre is where the condos are and virtually everything you need is here on 7th, 8th and 9th Avenue . The Bow River pathway is adjacent and Calgary’s convenient light rail transit can wisk you away to shopping in the south end of the city.

With the recession now largely in the rear view mirror, and with the price of oil rising steadily, homebuyers and property investors will be looking at Calgary homes differently.

With house prices so low, the expectation for buying residential properties in 2018 will improve. For speculators, the Calgary market is tantalizing, given that home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Bay Area, New York, and Miami have peaked.

Inmigration to Calgary is rising and mortgage rates remain low. Although “made to depress” Canada housing policies will constrain the market, the outlook for Calgary real estate is for growth. The extent of that growth of course depends on the price of oil, incoming energy sector investment, and the value of the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar.




The Price of Oil – Already Above Expectations

(This section written in winter 2018) Oil Prices were never expected to rise near $50 yet are above $55 now. The Saudis have proven they control the price of oil, not markets. Tough to predict what they’ll do however their recent actions show some resolve and purpose. The fact prices have reached $55, well above the limits predicted by all the experts has to indicate something.

OIL Prices

Screen Capture courtesy of Marketwatch.com

The World Bank may have posted the best forecast for oil prices through to 2020.

Screen capture courtesy of the IMF

You can check all the oil price predictions for yourself.

 

 




Price to list ratio revels that those putting up their houses for sale are receving 95.7% of their list price.
Total sales volume of apartment dropped slightly, however total sales in dollars dropped by $5 million compared to September.

Screenshot courtesy of CREB.com

Economic Predictions for Calgary

If oil continues to rise steadily in price, Alberta stands to recover economically. Businesses have pared down their costs and are better able to profit from growth. Although not officially a big component of the rosy Canadian economic forecast, Alberta and Calgary are keys to the future.

Alberta’s economy is much more diversified than it used to be however it is impossible to replace the revenue generation of the Canadian oil sands, the world’s largest pool of untapped oil reserves.

The price of WTI oil just reached $56, well above $30 a barrel last year, and there are indications the Saudis intend to cut production. The wise course of action is for governments to support the oil sands and other more costly production methods to grow oil supply. This would prevent OPEC from harming the growing US economy and the global economic upswing.

CREB’s 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Update

In the Calgary Real Estate Board’s most recent 2017 Calgary Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market update, CREB believes the pace of economic recovery will be slow but stable. Stagnant employment, wages, slow immigration, tighter mortgage lending restrictions, and made for Vancouver/Toronto economic policies will weigh on the Calgary housing market.

The latest report does forecast for 2018. However, Alberta’s economic performance is expected to be well up at 4.3% for all of 2017. New construction housing starts will be well down this year at around 3500 units. Multifamily housing starts are down just slightly from 2016 levels.




Screen capture courtesy of CREB.com. Stats courtesy of CMHC.

Total house sales were precisely forecasted to be 600 higher in 2017 than 2016 with a price similar. Dead on accurate. New listings will total 32,731, 400 for the full year. Sales of apartment will rise slightly over last years numbers at about 2800 units.

The loonie remains around 78 cents CAD vs USD, maintaining an excellent premium on exports from Calgary, and exports of Alberta oil. Forex experts believe the US dollar forecast is upward, while the Canadian dollar forecast is downward.

If new construction starts are constrained, then the resale market may grow in the neighbourhood of 1% in 2018, 2% in 2019 and perhaps 3% in 2019.  Of course, all predictions rest on the price of oil which as mentioned, the Saudis and OPEC control.  And US shale production and drilling rig counts seem to moderate upward increases in oil prices.

The last word on the Calgary Real Estate Forecast is positive. Oil price is rising, the US dollar is climbing with President Trump’s new tax cut to raise the US dollar value. With Alberta’s growth currently reported at 6%, a solid Canadian economic forecast at 3.7% growth in 2018, we’re running out of reasons why Calgary isn’t going to boom in 2019.

Note: the preceding post is not meant as specific investment advice, but rather as a comparison of real estate investment or home buying opportunities. Please ensure you discuss all investments with a licensed professional.

Latest Predictions and Tips:  Oil Price Predictions | Mortgage Refinance | Vancouver Housing Market | Vancouver Condo MarketCanadian Economic Forecast |  Best Real Estate Investment | US Dollar Forecast |  Home Price Forecast | Toronto Housing Market | Los Angeles Housing Market | Houses for Sale in Newmarket | Houses for Sale in Aurora | York Region New ConstructionAurora Luxury Homes | Mississauga Real Estate Report | Toronto Auto Insurance | Vancouver Auto Insurance | Blockchain affect on Real EstateBest Investment Opportunities | US Housing Crash 2019 | When is the Best Time to Buy a House? | When should I Sell My House? | Student Housing Investment  | Will There be a Market Crash? | Best House Renovations | Stock Market Crash in US | Realtor Branding | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecast | USD CAD Foreign Exchange Rate

 

No Comments

Post A Comment