Toronto Condo Market
The Toronto housing market is forecasted to see a recovery in sales and prices by 2025. That outlook would suggest the current unwanted inventory would find willing buyers in the year ahead.
According to TRREB’s lastest report on condo apartment sales in the GTA, we saw a drop of 19.8% in sales but only a drop of 1.2 in prices.
Despite a glut of units listed, owners are unwilling to sell at big losses. There’s a big push to build even more condos in Toronto, but a key to this market is the mismatch between the condos they built and those buyers actually want to live in.
Some of these units are uncomfortably small in living space, unsuitable to couples or to young families. And with unemployment rising, we wonder about rosy forecasts for the condo sector in Toronto.
They were built only as investments, and might be suitable for immigrants converging on Toronto, however rent prices are simply too high for most to pay. And owners don’t want to lower their asking rents either because they’re stuck owning units for sizable losses every month.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicts home prices could 2022’s prices by next year and then reach new highs through 2026, as mortgage rates fall and buyers find them more affordable. That demand for homes includes condos and new condos, and some experts believe we’ll once again see a condo shortage, which will get unwanted condos sold, and push up prices for larger units.
Urbanation adds that condo construction has slowed considerably as developers can’t qualify for funding. If immigration continues at high levels, available inventory will dry us, as the suggest in their report.
Simple math and common sense suggests owners will have to lower rent prices or sell their units in the next 6 months. The problem is, no one wants to buy them. Condo listings are up 36.5% vs 12 months ago, yet sales to listing ratios are down 23%. The jobs market has slowed and may not pick up until spring.
New Condo Sales in Toronto
A new report shows it’s not a good time to be a condo developer or owner.
Toronto new condo sales dropped to the lowest in 27 years in the first half of 2024, according to Urbanation, the top voice for new construction market sales.
Their Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) new condominium market reported sales of condos fell 66% to 1,688 sales in Q2-2024, and they’ve fallen 70% below the 20-year average. Q2’s sales results were the were worst in the past 20 years with the exception of Covid pandemic period.
The poor sales results caused total unsold inventory to climb to a record high 25,893 units. That level is 10,000 units (more than 60%) higher than both the 10-year and 20-year averages.
“We anticipate by 2025-2026 lower interest rates, continued government support, and policies encouraging greater density in urban centres should make more projects viable.” says CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan.
Toronto Condo Current Prices
Condo prices are falling as this graphic from Urbanation depicts. They report that average asking prices for unsold units fell by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and by a total of 4.5% over the previous 2 years to an average of $1,361 psf.
Condo Sales Q2, 2023 vs 2024
TRREB’s Q2, 2024 for the GTA region showed a significant drop in sales (-1350 units) and average selling price (-$8,920). And in Toronto itself, condo prices dropped about $3800 while sales fell by 846 units from the previous year.
Across all TRREB areas, the average was $729,000 with about 8800 listings for sale. New listings amounted to10,917 leaving them on the market for about 26 days.
City of Toronto Condo Sales & Prices
In the City of Toronto, the average condo price hit $655,000 against 6200 listings, while 11,655 new listings appeared, leaving them on the market for 25 days.
Condo Price Progression over 12 Years
From 30% to 128% price increases over 13 years, the world of condos in the GTA has grown immensely in buyer profiles, demand, and supply conditions. Prices of late have flattened, waiting for the next wave of buyers to emerge from the shackles of high mortgage rates.
| Area | Toronto Condo Prices Q2 2024 | Toronto Condo Prices Q2, 2023 | Price Change vs 1 year ago | Toronto Condo Prices February 2020 | Toronto Condo Prices Q2, 2012 | Price Change over 12 years |
| City of Toronto | $765,963 | $769,832 | -0.50% | $666,358 | $364,303 | 110% |
| Toronto West | $675,146 | $686,468 | -1.65% | $612,453 | $297,897 | 127% |
| Toronto Central | $824,614 | $824,428 | 0.02% | $805,982 | $419,363 | 97% |
| Toronto East | $631,313 | $628,896 | 0.38% | $525,756 | $243,713 | 159% |
| Halton Region | $667,549 | $712,295 | -6.28% | $531,706 | $333,032 | 100% |
| Burlington | $635,975 | $683,166 | -6.91% | $510,174 | $251,437 | 153% |
| Halton Hills | $582,500 | $600,560 | -3.01% | $507,400 | $249,788 | 133% |
| Milton | $628,409 | $644,435 | -2.49% | $533,600 | $270,068 | 133% |
| Oakville | $745,630 | $779,964 | -4.40% | $556,871 | $395,475 | 89% |
| Peel Region | $618,641 | $631,873 | -2.09% | $528,851 | $264,509 | 134% |
| Brampton | $535,663 | $581,775 | -7.93% | $445,420 | $214,006 | 150% |
| Mississauga | $633,676 | $642,643 | -1.40% | $547,524 | $274,586 | 131% |
| York Region | $709,711 | $717,323 | -1.06% | $584,451 | $340,875 | 108% |
| Aurora | $728,708 | $726,961 | 0.24% | $519,167 | $354,700 | 105% |
| Markham | $744,061 | $754,224 | -1.35% | $592,115 | $349,841 | 113% |
| Newmarket | $690,971 | $637,900 | 8.32% | $475,111 | $265,219 | 161% |
| Richmond Hill | $683,764 | $689,650 | -0.85% | $555,734 | $316,091 | 116% |
| Vaughan | $695,275 | $707,537 | -1.73% | $627,684 | $360,625 | 93% |
| Durham Region | $568,323 | $590,802 | -3.80% | $442,154 | $217,417 | 161% |
| Ajax | $527,544 | $619,128 | -14.79% | $409,750 | $192,076 | 175% |
| Oshawa | $451,000 | $490,763 | -8.10% | $310,100 | $185,000 | 144% |
| Pickering | $615,626 | $648,498 | -5.07% | $534,654 | $233,777 | 163% |
| Whitby | $669,490 | $677,574 | -1.19% | $472,053 | $277,158 | 142% |
Above: data courtesy of TRREB.
City Of Toronto Condo Prices
From a modest 18% to more than 300% growth in some areas of Toronto, condo owners have been blessed with a big premium on their original condo investment. As the economy improves in 2025, we’d expect condo prices across Toronto to return to their usual upward flight path.
| TREB District City of Toronto | Average Price Q2 2024 | Average Price Q2 2023 | Average Price Q2, 2012 | Price Growth last 12 years |
| Toronto W01 | $777,799 | $892,145 | $364,177 | 114% |
| Toronto W02 | $734,983 | $749,886 | $407,403 | 80% |
| Toronto W03 | $618,900 | $666,568 | $271,043 | 128% |
| Toronto W04 | $538,033 | $582,952 | $215,271 | 150% |
| Toronto W05 | $519,012 | $524,319 | $189,288 | 174% |
| Toronto W06 | $775,710 | $788,681 | $381,521 | 103% |
| Toronto W07 | $833,563 | $752,992 | $521,125 | 60% |
| Toronto W08 | $769,261 | $676,703 | $318,209 | 142% |
| Toronto W09 | $544,298 | $572,414 | $218,695 | 149% |
| Toronto W10 | $549,348 | $556,375 | $177,956 | 209% |
| Toronto C01 | $785,041 | $807,054 | $422,345 | 86% |
| Toronto C02 | $1,472,026 | $1,299,964 | $790,510 | 86% |
| Toronto C03 | $861,478 | $1,012,755 | $727,799 | 18% |
| Toronto C04 | $1,158,819 | $1,104,469 | $574,905 | 102% |
| Toronto C06 | $591,665 | $636,566 | $345,940 | 71% |
| Toronto C07 | $734,586 | $744,204 | $351,467 | 109% |
| Toronto C09 | $1,635,454 | $1,720,002 | $403,055 | 306% |
| Toronto C10 | $802,282 | $763,386 | $586,924 | 37% |
| Toronto C11 | $630,860 | $656,706 | $216,748 | 191% |
| Toronto C12 | $1,164,200 | $1,572,772 | $803,638 | 45% |
| Toronto C13 | $709,915 | $692,099 | $308,810 | 130% |
| Toronto C14 | $750,117 | $767,302 | $383,927 | 95% |
| Toronto C15 | $725,630 | $720,816 | $372,849 | 95% |
| Toronto E01 | $836,450 | $803,184 | $432,500 | 93% |
| Toronto E02 | $807,292 | $922,038 | $469,063 | 72% |
| Toronto E03 | $612,688 | $540,165 | $190,223 | 222% |
| Toronto E04 | $532,212 | $557,726 | $256,979 | 107% |
| Toronto E05 | $631,074 | $627,966 | $339,900 | 86% |
| Toronto E06 | $711,770 | $694,287 | $229,299 | 210% |
| Toronto E07 | $582,899 | $606,243 | $175,974 | 231% |
| Toronto E08 | $599,760 | $570,584 | $175,974 | 241% |
| Toronto E09 | $567,982 | $605,156 | $250,131 | 127% |
| Toronto E10 | $482,050 | $466,667 | $139,182 | 246% |
| Toronto E11 | $532,417 | $540,087 | $168,693 | 216% |
Above: data courtesy of TRREB.
Should You Buy a Toronto Condo in 2024?
Homeowners are facing the same tough, wrenching decision about putting in offers on homes this fall. If the price is about to rise as the bank economists believe, this would be the time to buy. Given the glut of condos available and the desperation of sellers, you need to negotiate patiently with sellers and get them to see your risk in buying at these prices, and their need to unload these properties.
With the demise of the buy side agent in 2025, you’ll need to improve your negotiation skills as you speak to seller agents directly. They’ll be overjoyed to speak with you, so don’t feel you must cave in and jump in at these prices.
Negotiations are going to come into play this year, and be aware that Realtors are skilled at getting the best deal for their clients. You’ll be glad to have them on your side when you sell your unit.
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