Toronto Condo Market Report – Update and Forecast

Toronto Condo Market Report – Update and Forecast

Toronto Condo Market Forecast 2018 2019

While the Toronto housing market in 2018 is overshadowed by severe house supply shortages and ultra-high prices the condo market in Toronto and Mississauga is an attractive alternative for young buyers.

Some are called Toronto’s housing healthy and balanced, but others might say that’s a bad joke.

What’s so interesting about Toronto’s market is that even though governments are doing everything possible to dash their dreams, they persist in trying to buy a home. It’s buyer desire that’s been the bane of Premier Wynne as she now faces termination in the upcoming election.

The supply of new condo apartments and single-family homes dipped again in March.  Resale listing grew a little, however new home remaining inventory dropped to 12,457 units — 8,756 condominium apartments and 3,701 single family homes. This is only 4 months  of inventory, while a healthy new home market would have 9 to 12 months worth of available units for sale.

This spring, Toronto condo prices rose 9% year over year while sales plummeted a staggering 29.7% YoY. New condo listings in the GTA dropped 11.1%.

Strong demand relative to supply will see this segment perform well from a pricing standpoint for the remainder of 2018 and beyond,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis in Spring report.

Sales of condos particularly in the under $500k market are rising and prices have risen as well. The latest Toronto condo market sales report from TREB has ben released. While TREB doesn’t publish stats on the condo market specifically much anymore, you can see the averages for each district below.

Toronto Central, Milton, Oakville, and Peel region continue to enjoy strong market demand while other areas have seen a decline in price since last fall.

The new mortgage rules now enforced means many buyers will only qualify for a much lower mortgage. Still buyers are eager to purchase as seen in the new construction condo sector.

New Construction Condo Sales and Prices

BILD reported 1,960 total new home sales in March which includes 1,649 condominium apartments sold in low, medium and high-rise buildings, stacked townhouses and loft units. That is down 67% from March 2017.

Incredibly, the benchmark price for new condominium apartments rose 39.4% to  $742,800 above last March prices.




You likely have your own opinions about government meddling in the markets, however such interference can be a housing crash factor in itself.

Should you invest in a new or resale Toronto condominium? Given the election uncertainty, and rising unemployment rates, you should be certain.  The negativity in the Canadian economy is a key reason the Feds have pushed the stress test red tape so strongly. They don’t believe things are going to go well.

Millennials Are Driving The Toronto Condo Market

They’ll need more creative mortgage financing and improved condo searches to find condomium they can afford in Toronto.  To save they might have to search further to Brampton or Ajax. Although the mortgage changes in 2018 will put an extra burden on them, and force them to stay in the rental market, they will likely have more money in the spring to buy a condo.

There’s big investor demand for condos too. Student housing is in a severe crunch in Toronto and Vancouver. Investors are well aware of the rental potential of condos and many may be investing in the Vancouver condo market and here in Toronto because of so much rental demand.

If you can’t earn a profit on capital appreciation, you can still make it on rental income.




Toronto Rents Are About to Rise

A report from BNN shows how rental income properties, including condos in Toronto. See where the big rents are.

Why are Toronto Condos such a Draw?

Toronto Condos offer higher cap rates and a larger growing pool of potential renters and buyers. And at this point with severe shortages of detached houses and townhouses, buyers are buying condos. Barry Fenton, President & CEO of Lanterra Developments, a major condo developer suggested Toronto Condo prices could could have risen 40% and they still are rising.

When foreign investors look to escape their own country’s currency nightmares and leverage our weak loonie, they like the Toronto market. Note: If you’re a foreign real estate investor, people often refer to Toronto as being the greater Toronto area encompassing Oakville, Mississauga, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Scarborough, East York, Pickering and even out to Oshawa. The Newmarket, Bradford, and Aurora regions are included in TREB’s housing sales reports.

Toronto GTA Condo Prices

TREB District Toronto Condo Prices April 2018 Toronto Condo Prices March 2018 Toronto Condo Prices October 2017 Toronto Condo Prices Sept 2017 Toronto Condo Prices Sept 2016 March 2012 Price Change over Last 17 months
City of Toronto $572,000 $651,100 $555,004 $554,069 $561,376 $361,800 1.89%
Toronto West $468,400 $494,400 $446,794 $450,485 $487,061 $286,366 -3.83%
Toronto Central $643,500 $656,000 $620,322 $615,654 $682,427 $422,396 -5.70%
Toronto East $403,400 $411,000 $407,775 $395,859 $467,689 $237,909 -13.75%
Halton Region $469,000 $465,300 $478,611 $519,348 $485,128 $442,625 -3.32%
Burlington $473,200 $520,300 $553,029 $514,755 $497,800 $370,667 -4.94%
Halton Hills $487,300 $486,300 $516,450 $294,500 $381,017 27.89%
Milton $425,700 $432,000 $413,808 $418,219 $406,300 4.77%
Oakville $483,900 $442,100 $419,438 $606,131 $513,682 $485,800 -5.80%
Peel Region $410,000 $423,600 $389,587 $385,588 $461,830 $433,780 -11.22%
Brampton $360,000 $360,000 $354,618 $336,091 $374,596 $351,500 -3.90%
Mississauga $418,600 $435,000 $395,683 $393,441 $485,240 $453,250 -13.73%
York Region $490,000 $507,000 $495,973 $481,138 $544,528 $537,903 -10.01%
Aurora $472,300 $477,000 $608,750 $562,500 $532,785 $525,000 -11.35%
Markham $500,300 $509,000 $503,796 $486,369 $554,643 $527,518 -9.80%
Newmarket $470,800 $536,000 $416,260 $444,250 $496,125 -5.10%
Richmond Hill $454,000 $475,400 $452,319 $446,505 $542,470 $596,667 -16.31%
Vaughan $510,800 $531,000 $532,144 $513,618 $593,725 $554,211 -13.97%
Durham Region $382,600 $407,800 $399,687 $365,297 $317,855 $274,350 20.37%
Ajax $404,000 $396,000 $337,317 $397,125 $378,180 $281,688 6.83%
Oshawa $322,800 $358,000 $302,333 $226,347 $243,000 $210,667 32.84%
Pickering $441,000 $501,000 $448,036 $384,300 $396,301 $340,667 11.28%
Whitby $407,000 $410,000 $448,036 $395,633 $344,461 $294,350 18.16%




The Toronto Real Estate Board covers a huge area and below we’ll zero in on communities that may represent the best ones for you to research.

Barry Fenton, President & CEO at Lanterra Developments joins BNN to discuss the Toronto Condo market. He suggests the market is aggressively priced and complains a little about how competitive it is. He says prices will rise 40% but he has a few misgivings about the Toronto Condo market.




Big Demand for Condos as Entry Level Homes

Most home buyers in the Toronto area can only hope to own a condo. Homes are averaging over $1.5 million in some areas in the GTA. And condo developments are offering more for tenants. And perhaps the key feature of Toronto condos is their proximity to work, leisure, restaurants and shopping and freedom from the grinding commute that many Torontonians face each day. So there are good reasons to buy a condo in Toronto.

Oddly, the condo market in Toronto is much less volatile than the single housing and townhouse market in Toronto. Her foreign buyer tax and rental price controls look like they’ll miss the mark.

Lets’ take a look at the most recent Toronto condo market prices and then look onward to 2018, 2018, 2019 and 2020. This blurb from the latest TREB condo market report says it all about what’s happening right now in April of 2017:

 

What else is supporting condo sales is proximity to work. Commute times are awful, gas prices are very high, and young millennials are having trouble handling rent/mortgage/ and car payments. Something has to give, so workers are choosing to move into the city near their workplaces.

Spring 2018 Condo Market Update

Where are Toronto’s Best Investment Condos?

As the graphic above shows, the top location is Toronto Central (where home prices are highest too), Toronto West and Mississauga. The bulk of these listings are in huge mega-sized condo towers and there are more of them being built. Toronto Central is also close to the U of T, Ryerson, and other colleges where off campus housing is in hot demand. It’s the same situation for Vancouver condo rental and investors should take note.

Toronto’s C02 district is your million dollar listing area. With an average price of $1,050,000 these are your Toronto luxury condos. This area is located just north of Downtown/Bloor st, near the University of Toronto. This suggests that proximity to U of T and downtown offices may be the primer driver of Toronto condo prices and may drive sales of Toronto homes as well.

Spring 2017 Condo Market Update

Screen cap courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board. See more at trebhome.com

How Much Have Prices Risen in the Last 5 Years?

Should I Buy a Condo in Toronto?

Should you buy a condo in Toronto, Mississauga, Scarborough, or Brampton?  Demand for condo purchases is rising, the Toronto economy is strong and positive, and rents are rising fast.  At some point, you have to jump in, or you’ll never build homeowner equity.

What to Consider Before you Buy a Condo

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1 Comment
  • ru crowder
    Posted at 10:40h, 20 May Reply

    All the rent controls are making it impossible for small landlords to break even. Now the tenants are trying to take away the landlord right to ask for capital expenditure rent raises. How can we protect ourselves as landlords.

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