summer weather forecast

2024 Weather Forecast: Warmth on the Way

What an interesting time it is for weather across North America, with some changes taking place that will take many people off guard — challenging popular beliefs about our climate.

It looks like a great summer is in store for us across the US and Canada with some hot spots and potential record level heat. While the Hurricane danger for the southern coasts seems to be abating, some central states will be facing significant tornados.  Storm chasers will be active this year.

But for the beach communities across the US, it may be a summer to remember and a nice fall season. For the travel sector and travel businesses, 2024 could be a record year.  As the FED rate falls, the economy and business travel market will awaken.

However, 2024 is shaping up to be a different beast altogether as the El Nino’s affect dissipates.

As you’ll see in this weather outlook report, big changes are expected, and the extreme transition from heat to cold will see weather revert to a cooler day winter into 2024. It may be an unhappy time for politically motivated climate activists who discover it could be cyclical climate trends that created more of the global warming trend, not so much the carbon-based greenhouse conditions.

The report below will expand on that topic.

Last Half of 2023, Promises to be Warmer

Yet for the 6 months ahead we’ll see warmth and nice conditions across North America including a drying out of California and the Rocky Mountain Region. Great weather for the beaches, tennis, golf, mountain biking and days on the lake in the eastern half.

While the talk about weather this year is all about the El Nino building in the Pacific Ocean, current El Nino conditions are considered neutral currently by the National Weather Service. And will change with each passing month of 2023.

NWS reports above normal temperatures for the Western, Southwest, and Southeastern regions. Above normal temperatures are predicted (60% to 70%) for the Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona, California, Texas, Colorado) and above average probability (50% to 60%) for states from Texas up the eastern seaboard to the New England states.

For the next 10 days, an excessive heat warning is issued for the Northwest region (Washington, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota). The highest probability for 90+ degree days is in the South and southeastern regions (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama).

This year’s El Nino could be a record own causing global temperatures to rise 1.8 degrees for a record heat year across the whole of the North American continent. And as warm ocean currents push up from the tropics to Europe, that region could see an excellent fall season. However, during El Nino years, Europe tends to get cold winters with lots of snow. It could be a good year for skiing in Switzerland, Italy and France.

5News weather report on this year’s transition from El Nina to El Nino:

Long Term Weather Outlook

Professor David Dilley in his full 2023-24 winter outlook and discussion for the United States – Canada predicts through reports on longer term weather oscillations, believes the world is reaching the end of a warm weather period, which will herald in colder weather for the next 40 years. He cites the frigid cold weather in the Arctic in 2021 is a just sampling of the cold to invade North America, which will end droughts in California and bring old time winters back.

Much to the anti carbon global climate activists dismay, Dilley predicts the end of global warming to a long period of global cooling for the coldest blasts of arctic air in 40 years — this coming winter. So, it seems it will be a hot 2nd half of 2023, followed by a significant cooling effect for 2024.

That will work well for vacation-related businesses in Florida, Mexico, Costa Rica regions. Real estate investors and stock market investors might be alerted to opportunities. You can find more weather forecasts on Accuweather and websites.

David Diley’s Weather Forecast

See more on Diley’s forecasts and models at

Farmer’s Almanac Weather Forecast 2023

In a slightly different 2023 forecast, Farmers Almanac predicts a drier cooler summer of 2023 in the Western Region and warmer in the Eastern region. They believe the west will dry out after a long winter of wet weather.

With high heat and more rainfall in the southern region, it could be a very active weather season in the south. They indicate temperatures in the summer for Hawaii and Alaska will be above normal, presumable due to this heightened El Nino year.
Farmer’s Almanac’s Peter Geiger said “Our forecast is pointing towards a long, hot summer with the heat feeling unrelenting, hanging on from June through September. Even regions in the north will see very warm temperatures, and for some places, dry conditions as well.”

El Nino Forecast 2023/2024

The big weather story for 2023 and into 2024 is a potential record El Nino Year. The El Nino is a heating of waters in the Pacific Ocean, predicted to build as the year progress, perhaps leading to a very warm fall, extended the warm weather season and making winter 2024 warmer than average.

That might be good news for the travel industry and agriculture industries in the US and provide a boost for the US economy and perhaps lowering food price inflation.

Axios using NOC data, reveals the persistence of this years’ El Nino Weather event in 2024:

El Nino Weather 2023.
El Nino Weather 2023. Screenshot courtesy of

Accuweather’s Forecast for Summer 2023

Accuweather predicts cooler weather for the next few months followed by much warner perhaps, dangerous weather for the north central region later in the summer. While Hurricanes might be few, summer tornado threats might be elevated as cold and warm clashes in the north central plains and midwestern regions.

Tornado Forecast 2023

The National Weather Service shows its projections of tornadic activity this year.

Tornado Watch 2023.
Tornado Watch 2023. Screenshot courtesy of NOAA.

Accuweather predicted a strong threat for Tornados for Spring 2023, yet it wasn’t an active season.

However, very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico will provide extra fuel to feed violent thunderstorms over the central and eastern U.S. They mention that as Niña has ended, the alteration of weather systems in 2023 over North America will make it “more conducive for the development of severe weather.”

Enjoy your summer vacation in 2023 and bookmark this page for future weather updates and alerts!

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