Stock Market Predictions
The Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P indexes had one of the best weeks in recent months. The S&P, Dow, NASDAQ and the Russell enjoyed more upward trajectory, even as economic and job numbers lag and Covid infections rise across the country.
It was one of the strangest weeks ever as the 74 year old President caught Covid 19 from adoring fans, was administered a drug (Remdesivir) that no one is allowed to have, and was miraculously saved. At a time when no one is to be saved from the deadly virus using a vaccine, the President was.
Now everyone will expect to be saved which could create some issues for the FDA and the vaccine companies. The vaccine stocks will be a focus of attention.
We wonder if Trump’s “don’t fear the virus” comments this week is the final straw that brakes his Presidential hopes. Do you think the President will come back? He looks in good spirits lately. But the specter of a Biden win is the big issue everyone is starting to consider seriously. What will happen to the markets in 2021? Crash or Soar?
The Markets Today:
- S&P 500 : 16,562.81 ↑
- Dow Jones 30 : 28,586.90 ↑
- Nasdaq : 11,579.94 ↑
- Russell 2000 : 1,637.55 ↑
- Crude Oil: $40.52 a barrel ↓
- Gold: $1,936.30 per ounce ↑
- US Dollar $93.04 ↓
See all the charts below for top gaining stocks.
Darkening Clouds Not a Crash Just Yet
Strong evidence is mounting for a stock market crash (and housing market crash too), yet through some tricky spending and maneuvering, many advisors and investors still believe whoever runs the country will make it soar.
They aren’t spooked yet. But as the negative data grows, many will realize 2021 could be a very bad year. A selloff could create a domino effect in a market where all the levers have already been pulled. Investors should be asking about what will save the market from crashing, before they invest any further.
The reactions of hope for stimulus, sudden rises in airline stocks, etc. inflate the bubble, and indicate investors may have a very short investment mindset. Trapped in media hype, greed and misdirection, they’ve had their minds deflected from the long term outlook.
The mindset of many is detached from reality (actual economic activity and potential) while politicians are promising radical social, regulatory and tax changes. That’s not a good investing climate. A surge in Covid 19 with shutdowns could be the accelerant to start a selloff wildfire near the end of the month.
It has us wondering where we’re really going. Have other countries gone through this?
US voters are hoping the Democrats will manage the economy masterfully amidst the debt and trade deficit, the wealthy and business investors will ignore higher taxes and open borders, and they’ll all spend generously through the next 9 months when vaccines are finally distributed.
If you’re wise, you might calmly exit the market, hold your cash in a non US currency (Yen, Euros), then wait for the stock market crash to pass. Then in 2021, buy up companies and real estate cheap just like the billionaires do. That’s what cycles are for. This may be the one time where you can do exactly like Warren Buffet and the other pirates do!
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Billionaire Buffet warns that a recession is imminent. Billionaire investors predictions have to be the mentioned in any stock market forecast.
The media suggested the stock market lift was due to optimism about stimulus, yet the standoff between Trump and Pelosi is certain. There likely will be no stimulus money until February. The markets will likely see this in the coming week or so and the economy will begin to stall out.
Last week, the Democrats stunned everyone by asking the vaccine maker Moderna to hold off on progress on their vaccine until after the election. Pelosi is demanding $400 billion extra to bail out badly managed democrat states and cities which is outrageous. The growing nerve of the Democrats provides additional warning of potential stock market crash and housing market crash risk.
Investors are trying to find a safe haven but there isn’t one. Some advise investing overseas. Gold stocks, oil stocks, and tech stocks have big risk. A global recession will sink them all. How about real estate? Well the Fed has bought up one third of all mortgages and US debt is out of control
Experts are paying more attention to macroeconomics now, pointing to coming inflation, high liquidity, precarious US dollar, trade uncertainty, falling GDP, and persistent unemployment. Investing experts continue to warn about over-priced equities. Without stimulus funds, the 4th quarter could be troubling.
When you take a high level view of the economy, you realize it is a house of cards, and it’s the sum and chain reaction which could be the key crash factor. My view has always been that the Democrats are anti-business, pro tax hikes, and pro China. They treat the economy/people like emergency room patients whom they can revive repeatedly, anytime they want. But they’re not that smart. The complexity is getting out of hand.
Without Trump’s constant protection and support, US stocks will deflate faster than the economy.
And many stock market advisors have called this is a stock market bubble. Tesla has a trailing-twelve-months P/E of 54.90. It’s price is 54 times it’s earnings! Tesla is a great company, perhaps the next Amazon, but like the stock market, it looks like a bubble stock.
Last week, the Democrat house announced that they intend to break up big tech and disallow them from selling their products on their own monopolized networks. In response, Apple stock price, Google stock price, Amazon stock price, and other tech stocks fell. Others believe nothing will happen after the election.
With respect to the pandemic, it almost seems like the FDA is in no hurry to approve COVID vaccines and drugs to save lives immediately. Vaccine stocks were down as well. More investors and experts are concerned about a potential stock market crash. See more of the best stocks to buy below.
And 2021 stock market predictions are becoming fewer and far between as a litany of negative factors weigh in. Traditional and technical indicators simply haven’t been useful and investors have to start thinking on their feet with an eye on the big picture. Is this the right time to buy gold stocks and reduce your exposure on the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ?
Gloomy Clouds Darken the Fall Forecast
President Trumps recent behavior and tweets might seal the deal for Biden. If biden wins, stimulus payouts wouldn’t happen until January.
The 2021 forecast has to take these key risk factors into account. The stock markets ended up today, and futures are up for tomorrow as well. A bright note after a series of stock selloffs. The concern now is a major selloff in October, and possible stock market crash after November 3rd.
High taxes, deficit spending, regulation, increased imports all point to bad times for American companies in 2021. Trump’s return to office today tells us what the market really thinks.
Stimulus Talks Finally Ended
“I am rejecting their.. … request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.” said President Trump today. — from Yahoo Finance report.
It’s enough to start a fall stock market slide. And the fall season is always the danger season. Keep your eye on Covid case number increases this month as the next 5 months will be no picnic. Even the great recent news from Pfizer’s 800 out of 800 vaccine success in trials announced this week can’t stem the negative force of a potential Biden win.
Which stocks should you invest in? Is your horizon 3 months, 6 months, or 5 years? The best stocks for 2021 might be tech stocks, or they could just be stocks that were hot back just before the pandemic hit. However, the best stock picks and the outlook for 2021 really depends on the election.
Tesla Stock Price
While the FAANGS fight the current in troubled waters, you might take a good look at Tesla. Of course, wait for a dip if you’re considering buying it.
Tesla, the symbol of new American manufacturing success, had their big battery day event and it was considered a flop. One stock market expert says Tesla’s stock price could crash and the majority of advisers seem to think Tesla is grossly overvalued and in for tough times.
They examine fundamentals, but they keep forgetting about Tesla’s incredible market-leading brand. Market leaders transcend data histories and P/E earnings ratios. The emotion around Tesla’s innovation carries it just like it does with Google, Facebook, and Apple.
The Fed’s J Powell promises to keep interest rates low, but that didn’t excite investors too much. Today’s job claims warned of a trend that’s perhaps contributing to lower consumer spending and the rise of gold stocks.
And investors and stock advisors are still processing the news from the FED, regarding inflation, and what that potentially means for the US economy. Investors are nervously anticipating the election in 3 weeks, as it will tell us whether the markets will push ahead in 2021 or slide into a market crash.
Stock experts are advising investors to buy more of the FAANG level stocks and less of small business. That’s understandable as the Russell has only been about as good as the Dow lately. It appears more money was chasing the best tech stocks such as Tesla, Apple, BioNTech, and Nvidia. BioNTech released good results from its vaccine tests.
Top Gaining Stocks, Sectors and Factors
Top Performing Sectors
Top Gaining Stocks
All stocks except small caps:
Top Performing Large Caps
Top Performing Mid Caps
Let’s take a roll call of the markets as of today:
- economy did beat predictions for the 2nd quarter
- market climbed as investors seem optimistic
- corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
- Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
- $5 trillion sitting in money markets
- Gold price is rising
- NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow keep steadily rising
- US dollar is falling
- US Presidential election only 3 weeks away (Biden leads)
- trade war with China continues to heat up emotionally
- Facebook, Google and Amazon stocks under pressure of DOJ anti-trust investigations
- Ford made billion profit even though sales slumped
- renter evictions, landlord bankruptcies – with no new stimulus will we see a crash in the housing sector?
- unemployment claims rise after Covid resurgence grows shutdowns
If President Trump is re-elected, the economy should revive and soar by mid 2021. However, with excessive high valuations, low earnings, incoming China imports, ballooning money supply, and new US corporate debt, and a radical political party coming in, smart investors can see the writing on the wall.
Institutional and retail stock market investors believe in the long term outlook of the US economy, but even so, concerns still persist about the next 6 months through the winter, if a vaccine isn’t distributed by then.
CBOE Volatility Chart
Volatility is low compared to historical values, however the election should make the needle jump.
Stock Market Outlook 2021: Lean and Mean and Ready to Grow
Let’s put our rose colored glasses on and take the view that whoever runs the US government, they’ll be able to spend their way out of trouble. Let’s let go of any stock market crash talk, and talk about what advantage US companies will have.
Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Or are new FAANGs about to rise?
Markets were raised by good news of Vaccine success and corporate earnings reports. While the threat and fallout from the deliberate actions of rioters and beach/drinking youth have been a nasty assault on the US economy and the confidence of Americans, the outlook is becoming a little more stable.
A Vaccine Will Stifle the Market Pessimists
The media has really been negative on the economy, exaggerating short term issues and pushing stock market crash scenarios. They’re pushing the “vaccines won’t work” theme too. However, good news from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna suggests significant progress toward a successful, widely available Covid 19 Vaccine is not far off. See more on the vaccine stocks.
What is the Story for the Next 3 Months?
The 3 month outlook is dominated by whether President Trump can hang onto the Presidency and the pro-America agenda. And it’s all about Covid 19 management, slowing the 2nd wave, overpriced stocks and whether investors should bail out.
See below for the 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year forecasts and predictions.
Yet, if you’re a long term investor, the summer volatility won’t matter much. Many big companies will survive the Covid 19 infection period as we head to a vaccine distribution. The real issue for investors is which companies will endure the change and come out winners in 2021.
Will Retail Investors be the Story in the Next 3 Months?
The growth of self-directed trading is impressive as investors feel they can find the best stocks on their own. With the level of insight and opinion and stats available online, these self-directed investors are still guided by the same investment pros. It could be Wall Street feels threatened by a change in the investment landscape, with new investment tools, software and advisors becoming more in vogue.
If self-directed trading is working for you, please let me know in the comments at bottom.
Stock Indexes Head Upward Despite it All
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000 long term outlook are once again positive. The reason the majors have been doing so well, is due to the struggles of small business.
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See more on the best stocks to buy including Vaccine stocks, 5G stocks, and perhaps small caps on the Russell index. Still wondering about the Amazon stock price, Google stock price, and Facebook stock price forecast? Brush up on the Apple stock price lately. Anti monopoly winds are blowing stronger and might hit gale force closer to the election as neither political party supports monopolies.
Important news of recent is the intent of US lawmakers looking to invest tens of billions of dollars in microchip manufacturing in the US. China has been pouring money into that industry. The rationale for this is due to the pre-eminence of chips in tech innovation as AI, 5G and robotics require faster, newer chips.
That means it’s a national security imperative to have microchips made in the US (see Intel, AMD and Nvidia stocks).
Where are they Headed in October, November, and December?
Cramer Talks Down Stimulus Spending
However, Jim Cramer believed the stimulus won’t work because of social distancing. As long as people have to stay 6 feet apart, they won’t be flying, commuting on transit, eating at packed restaurants, attending big league sports, and working.
Cramer adds concern by saying the stimulus payments ended up in the bank accounts of the big corporations who will end up furloughing employees at some point. We need a Corona Virus vaccine badly, so is support for the vaccine companies is perhaps a wiser choice?
In the meantime, the violent protests could get get worse, as unemployment, boredom and homelessness are set to rocket. The specter of a housing crash keeps creeping in. Hopefully, reopening businesses will accelerate revenue. Those who have work at home arrangements could succeed. The work model is definitely going to change and work at home is a fantastic route out of this recession.
Stock Market News
What’s the relevant stock market related news this week?
- unemployment claims remain high
- consumer sentiment index rose to 80.4 in September
- U.S. retail sales rose .6% in August to $537.5 billion
- President Trump pressuring Corona Virus researchers for vaccine by end of year
- US China cold war looking more certain and China’s supply chain in jeopardy
- President Trump and Pelosi in stalemate over stimulus
- President Trump blocks computer chip sales to China
- consumers running out of stockpiled items and starting to spend more for 2nd Covid wave ahead
- airlines in severe trouble without continuous bailouts
Investors are wondering if now is the time to buy cheap stocks with big potential in 2021, or if this market still hasn’t seen its bottom. Smart investors buy when the best stocks are cheap. We’re near the bottom or second drop in the W recovery. But should get greedy and wait some more. Jim Cramer advised to buy stocks 2 months ago.
Check the Tesla stock forecast along with forecasts for Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Netflix. See the post on best stock picks, best 5G stocks, and whether oil stocks are the best bargains of 2020.
Investing in Vaccine Stocks
Should you buy Corona Virus vaccine stocks? There’s a 100 horses in the race for the vaccine. Are Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson (still has asbestos powder law suits pending) with ones with the least downside, given they have a regular range of consumer products to fall back on? They may come up with a vaccine too. Some of them pay no dividends, and if they did produce a vaccine, they might become a takeover target.
Check out the top 5 Covid Vaccine stocks:
Some economists and experts forecasted a W shaped recovery. Is the second dip looming, or are we free and clear from here on in?
As lawsuits and trade embargos begin against China in the last half of 2020, we’ll see more market instability. A cold war is looming and that will bode well for the US economy.
Barchart’s Top Gainers
I’m sure you want to get to the top gaining stocks to see which are positioned to rocket higher.
The reopening of businesses across the US added to a potential additional trillion dollar aid package means the economy could be ready to bolt forward. President Trump and the Fed seem to be getting behind the resurgence.
If we get past the dour 3 month and 6 month outlook, 1 year struggles, then the 5 year and 10 year projections for the US stock markets look promising. If Trump is returned to office, then 2021 will be the beginning of strong stock market bull run. The oil price forecast could make the start up period even better.
Corona Virus Stocks, Trending Stocks, or the Best Long Term Value?
If longer term projections and outlook are your guide, it’s just a matter of finding the best stocks to buy. Check out the top trending stocks of late and recheck gold stocks too. The race for a Covid 19 vaccine is providing a lucrative payday for lucky investors: see the top vaccine stocks. There’s big talk of oil stocks, but there is no demand for oil so production cuts won’t work. Also, review the Dow Jones forecast for it’s 3 to 6 month projections.
Other economists and stock market forecasters (Jim Cramer too) are suggesting a U shaped recovery is ahead of us, or that we’re already into it. Others believe this is a W shaped recovery with the next dip just ahead. A brief mini recession would fulfill the prophecy.
Which are the Best Stocks to Buy Now?
One stock market analyst said this could be W recovery instead of a V or U shaped recovery. That means we could be in for another mini stock market crash, or let down. The fact China has recovered and is opening up for business again, means the US will likely follow a similar path.
What Caused the Last Stock Market Drop in April?
Here’s the key factors that took the market down in March and April.
- Corona Virus work stoppage – no income, cities emptied,
- a WHO pandemic declaration
- growth in US virus cases and deaths
- US travel bans for Americans and advice to stay at home
- oil price wars
- bond market weakness
- global economic setbacks
- government corrective actions not enough to solve the issues
Which are the Best Bargain Stocks to Buy?
Smart stock market investors are researching all the major exchanges for the best bargain stocks to buy. It might mean watching stocks daily to see which low priced stocks have the best upside potential. NASDAQ and the tech stocks seem to in demand, as the virus runs its course.
The run on Price of Gold recently may show the oil countries are selling gold to say afloat. The price of oil has sunk below $20 a barrel again today. It will be a boon for most American consumers, and others around the world as vehicle use and travel restart. Price of gasoline from California to New York has dropped significantly.
While all of this extreme market volatility is subsiding, investors worldwide are still nervous. Investment advisors and experts will have their ultimate tests in the coming weeks and months. Volatility and political strife seems to beget more of it.
The Stock Market Forecast
However, the pandemic hasn’t hit the US. The US economy is still solid and improving, but is it exempt from the virus fallout? Some suggest the US will actually benefit from China’s new disease as manufacturers decide that production should move back to America.
Here are the key factors affecting the ever improving outlook for the US stock market:
- US job numbers — jobs will come back by 2021, but lower than before
- The April PMI® fell to 41.5%, down 7.6% from the March reading of 49.1%
- fears about Corona Virus in North America beginning to decline (case number falling)
- President Trump weathering the Democrat media storm
- interest rates will stay low and perhaps go negative
- More talk about US import tariffs and US self-reliance
- weak earnings but not as bad as expected
- US companies such as Tesla making a lot of noise
- oil (forecast to sink below $40) and no demand growth for 2020
- US dollar looking stronger
Market Forecast for Next 6 to 9 Months
Economic recessions, normally end with a rocketing surge, usually because interest rates drop. This graph shows the current recovery from 2008 is one of the slowest on record. That might mean there’s much more left in the tank to keep this bull stock market going.
Once in a lifetime Opportunity for big short term and long term equity gains. See the Best Stocks to Buy
Check the extensive stock price list and stats below for best picks. Also check out the AI stock picks, and AI stock trading software and see the market pages for real time price quotes.
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For a year that was predicted to be a total waste due to rising interest rates, trade wars, tariffs, political embargos, and a global slowdown, 2019 didn’t turn out all that badly. Hopefully this optimism will brighten the housing market forecast for 2021 after languishing in pessimism.
When Will US Consumers Return to Save the Markets?
It will take more than a 3 month shock to upset consumers. Banks too are very strong coming out of this recession. Bailouts help. And President Trump has made no mention of taking action on the US monopolies, Google, Facebook, and Amazon which would cause a ruffle for a while. We’d have to think the FAANGs will do well in 2020 until monopoly charges are finally laid.
Questions About the Stock Markets
Your questions about stock prediction and the Stock Markets are likely regarding which are the best stocks to buy, which index has better performing stocks, and whether you should invest in the big tech companies? The markets are peaking so what will drive stock prices higher? Should you buy Tesla Stock, or Apple Stock and play follow the leader?
What is the Stock Market Outlook for the Next 5 Years?
The long term stock market outlook to 2024 looks more promising each month because many of the market detractors are losing credibility. Take a look at long forecasts predictions for the S&P
Will Stock Prices Rise in 2021?
That depends a lot on the outcome of the election. Rising taxes, capital gains taxes, mounting debt, growing trade deficits, return of China imports, and the flight of investment capital could all point to a stock market crash.
If the status quo is maintained, the capital will stay and we only have to wait for the Covid 19 vaccine.
Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2020. Tesla stock price is on fire.
It’s still wise to take a look at smaller, up and coming tech stocks on the Russell index in anticipation of a hot economy in 10 months from now.
5 Year Long Term Forecast Optimistic
The 5 year and long term outlook to 2024 look really good too because the American consumer is well employed. The latest jobs outlook report is excellent. The 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales.
Find the best stock picks that are making the biggest improvements below and more about the 2020 stock market forecast. Apple has hit new highs while Amazon and Netflix suffer. Find out what Jim Cramer of Mad Money thinks of the stock markets and the best industries.
Volatility from the Trade Deal: Splitting up a China agreement into phases likely won’t be successful. However, there is hope that something positive will evolve from negotiations with China.
Every time Trump hits China with penalties, the US stock markets jump, tariff revenues skyrocket and US business revenues rise.
Continue to Stock Market Forecast Part 2
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