04 Sep US Housing Market Forecast – 2018 Predictions for Real Estate – MLS Stats Houses for Sale
The US Real Estate Forecast 2018 to 2020
The fall of 2017 and the 2018 real estate season should be interesting times. Prices may have peaked, but there are those who feel they could go higher. While others suggest a crash is imminent. If you’re hoping to buy or put your house up for sale, you may want to take take a deeper dive into the economic and housing stats, news, and trends below.
With housing nearing pre-recession highs or higher in some cities, the average investor might do well to examine macroeconomic factors along with the usual local market stats.
Houses For Sale – How to Play the Market
US Home Prices are still heating up due to lack of houses for sale. Its a national problem that’s been brewing for 7 years and it’s the worst for California. Yet with crisis comes opportunity for capable real estate investment people. Homebuyers will need to be creative to match their income and buying power to the lofty prices being sought for houses for sale in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, New York, Seattle, Denver, San Diego etc.
In this EPIC United States Housing Report with predictions for 2018 to 2020, you’ll discover the hottest markets, zip codes, get stats and understand the key fundamentals that are driving the real estate markets today. See the post on the best cities to invest in real estate. Where can you find houses for sale with the best upside potential as an invstment? See this post.
Housing Experts Predictions and a Lot More
Experts predictions are mostly rosy forecasts of most markets from Los Angeles and San Diego to New York. It’s happy times for sellers putting their house up for sale, but tough shopping for home buyers and investors.
Most real estate sales and real estate investment experts are predicting a strong year ahead for US housing in 2018 for the next 5 years. This post has numerous insightful charts, videos and perspectives to help you understand the housing market in 2018 and beyond.
Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac. The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure. The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy. Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.
And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.
Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer
Let’s look at the hostest housing market which is the city of Vallejo California. It’s a good example because it hints at where the opportunities are and where they aren’t. Vallejo, California was named by Realtor.com as the best city with the best outlook. Prices in nearby San Francisco and Bay Area housing market are so pricey, that buyers are willing to look to the north in Vallejo for what are ultracheap properties. As Vallejo’s neighborhoods improve, demand here could rocket for many years.
Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For investors or buyers with minimal cash the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modestor, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale.
|City Rank||Housing Market||Average Home Price – July 2017|
|3||San Francisco, CA||$1,300,000|
|4||San Jose, CA||$840,000|
|5||San Diego, CA||$555,000|
|8||Fort Wayne, IN||$50,000|
|12||Colorado Springs, CO||$255,000|
|13||Yuba City, CA||$269,000|
|18||Ann Arbor, MI||$320,000|
|19||Santa Cruz, CA||$775,000|
|20||Santa Rosa, CA||$530,000|
In some markets such as California, home prices continue their relentless climb and outside of major markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.
Here’s 7 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:
- home prices are appreciating
- millennials need a home to raise their families
- rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
- flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
- real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
- the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
- foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
Latest real estate market reports:
There are more renters now than in the last 30 years.
US homes are at their highest value ever
Foreign buyers buying record number of properties
Housing starts more than expected but not enough to fill demand
New Houses for sale dropped 3.4% in August
Resale houses for sale drops in August
Read on to learn more about the economic fundamentals that suppport your purchase of real estate:
Buying and Selling — Is This the Right Time?
Are you selling your home in 2017? Speculation of a housing crash in Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, San Diego, San Jose, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets has more people listing their house or condo.
Check out these other posts for homebuyers, investors, and realtors:
How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | US Buyers Guide to Buying Cheap Canadian Real Estate | 10 Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price | Home Sellers Pricing Strategy | Better House Market Evaluation
Do the Underlying Economic Fundamentals Support Higher Home Prices?
Some think housing shortages will keep home prices high. However the economy is looking good and unemployment is low. This is a time when you can take changes to improve your life however, it’s wise to consider specifically where the real opportunities are. That might even include Real Estate Investing and investing in Rental Income Property. 30% to 40% ROI speaks pretty loudly!
There are plenty of home buyers (Canadians and Chinese) out there if you’re considering putting your house up for sale. And especially first time home buyers this year. Millennials are hungry for housing. If you’re looking for support about the housing market fundamentals, keep reading below. Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2017 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month from 2018 to 2024.
Will it be enough? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.
From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King
Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco. The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at. Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, and New York have a promising outlook too.
See this post on investing in rental income property. Get some tips on how to do a better homes for sale search. Buyers might want to check out Canada given the excellent exchange rate. See the Guide to Buying Canadian Real Estate.
You won’t find too many US housing forecasts beyond 2017, yet we’re looking looking for the best cities to invest in real estate, where to buy a home, and whether this is a good time to sell your home. To see the future a little better, take a look at the Toronto real estate market, New York Real Estate Market, San Diego home prices report, and the market in the Bay Area. Find houses for sale in Los Angeles, and houses for sale in San Diego.
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Here’s a short list of positive factors that will affect the US Housing Market 2017 and beyond:
- moderately rising mortgage rates
- president Trump’s new tax plan
- low risk of a housing crash for most cities
- millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
- a trend to government deregulation
- labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
- the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history
The repatriation of business, investment and jobs back to the US may come with a big price — a high dollar and strong inflation. That will drive prices higher for houses for sale.
Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc. Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead. Looking to put your house up for sale in 2018? Find a Realtor now.
Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics
These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers. The data reveals US housing starts and resales are on the rise 2017 to 2020 and beyond. And given the huge Generation Y have put off home ownership and are coming into their key buying years up to 2030, there will be a lot of pressure for babyboomers to put their houses up for sale.
Are you checking out home prices and the best zip codes to invest? Do you know how you’ll get the best price? Helpful posts for homeowners who want to ensure the best return on their key life investment, their home: 10 Powerful Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price and How to Sell Your Home for Above Asking Price. What are the best investment opportunties for 2017?
Sharing is Good for your Social Health!
Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!
Expert Predictions – US Housing
1. Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.
These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%. — BusinessWire
2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.
Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise
It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.
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US Housing Construction Starts All Time – on the Rise Again
The right solution: Build more houses for sale. Let’s begin with a look at how home prices have grown up to 2016 and how that will drive new house construction. Nationwide prices are still $50,000 below the pre-recession highs. Will it take 3 to 4 more years to reach those highs? If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash? House Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.
US Mortgage Rate Trends
US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.
US Housing Starts to 2024
This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
2016 Non Farm Payrolls
With the price of oil forecast to be rising again, it’s unlikely that economic winds will inflate wage demands. From 2017 on, wage demands should ease from their hot rates as you can see here:
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
US Housing starts are forecast to grow strong this year and next, particularly single family homes which will rise about 30%.
Chart stats courtesy of realtor.org
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[bctt tweet=”Home Ownership: The home ownership rate is predicted to continue growing to 2020. #housing #mortgage #construction #economy” username=””]
Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.
Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.
There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years. Realtors who have feared investing in digital real estate marketing should calculate the long term value (LTV) of clients you build today.
What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?
Are you a full time realtor looking to grow your prospects and leads? Full service digital marketing is a bargain when it’s done well. What’s the forecast and trends for the real estate sales in your region? If you’re in Vancouver, Toronto, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear. But will you get your slice of that pie? Relying on real estate lead generation companies is another way you can go, however you have to pay forever and it’s questionable whether their leads are high quality.
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