Stock Market Outlook & Predictions
There’s a struggle as the market moves to cyclicals, value stocks and defensive stock positions (defensive stocks deliver consistent dividends and stable earnings regardless of the condition of the overall stock market. See hedging). Rising costs and growing Covid infections are weighing on investor’s outlook. Airlines, Cruiselines, Pot stocks and others fell hard today. See the top gaining stocks below.
“Many of our favorite sentiment gauges are becoming extremely bullish, which could be a near-term contrarian warning… Survey recently showed bulls outnumber bears by the most since January 2018.” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial in Yahoo report.
Global economic growth and international markets are surging as well, further supporting US economic recovery.
“Markets look ahead to economic normalisation as vaccines will go around. Stock prices are likely to rise gradually while looking at upcoming earnings,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. — from Reuters report.
See more on the Dow Jones Forecast, S&P 500 Forecast and NASDAQ forecast, along with this weeks outlook, and the 6 month forecast. Keeping an eye on a potential stock market crash and the top market crash indicators?
The only worries of the markets right now are impending inflation and if it will get out of control, and the persistence of the new Covid 19 variants which are surging in some states. While the government is urged to do something about the housing market, it’s unlikely they’ll act to regulate.
The banks are reporting exceptionally high earnings. Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday. Wells Fargo reported an almost 500 billion jump in revenue in 1st quarter 2021. It’s stock price jumped 5.6% on that news.
Stock Market Futures
Cryptocurrency Stock Forecast
Are Cryptocurrency stocks a going concern for investors. This chart shows trillions are being poured in the Crypto markets and the cryptocurrency stocks listed below. The bewildering complexity of the market and the risk of governments regulating it, make it especially speculative. Ensure you understand before investing a serious amount. Fear of missing FOMO is a weak reason for investing right now.
The top news was Cryptocurrency Coinbase IPO stock price which quickly rose and then fell hard. COIN opened at $381 and it’s trading at $380 currently. Cryptocurrency has grown strongly and is being hyped. Coinbase’s success is said to be opening the doors for more cryptocurrency and perhaps a threat to the greenback. Ethereum and Binance are rising fast.
Bitcoin’s flash crash a few days ago vaporized $10 billion of market cap. Rumors include potential Federal charges in using Bitcoin in money laundering and a blackout in Xinjiang, China.
Some suggest they’ve reached their peak before a big selloff. There’s pressure on governments to respond to them and it won’t be good news. Turkey just banned cryptocurrency payments. Cryptocurrency is so volatile it might be coined as gambling.
Take a good look at Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Coinbase prices:
Companies announcing their earnings reports this week include Delta Airlines, Bank of America, Rite Aid, BlackRock, JB Hunt, US Bancorp, United Health Group, PepsiCo, Citigroup, and Alcoa. Yesterday, JPMorgan and Goldman beat first-quarter profit and revenue estimates. Yesterday, Execs from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo delivered a bullish economic forecast. They also said they released big chunks of money that was set aside for the Covid 19 disaster.
“It is clear to me that the U.S. is poised for a strong recovery this year, led by consumer spending that is rebounding to pre-Covid levels,” David M. Solomon, chief executive of Goldman Sachs, told analysts on a conference call. “This sentiment is reflected in the capital markets.” Jamie Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank by assets, took a similar view. “We believe that the economy has the potential to have extremely robust, multiyear growth,” — From NYTimes report yesterday.
The stimulus money is flowing, GDP reports look good, consumer spending is gangbusters, jobs numbers are growing considering the Virus is still live, earnings will likely be up, and stock prices should rise today. With markets at record highs, and the housing bubble inflating, how can some still ask will there be a stock market crash?
Mounting euphoria and “irrational exuberance” are a concern so you may want to look into hedging for a crash. See more below on a potential crash scenario below.
Timeline Chart of Major Indexes
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes the economy will boom to at least 2023. He called it a “Goldilocks moment”—with fast, sustained growth alongside inflation and interest rates that rise slowly.
Tech has been hot. Investors should investigate the best tech stocks, including Google, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla. Tesla rose from last week. the FAANGs, check out the oil stocks, 5G stocks and find those that are ready rise in value.
US GDP to Grow 7.9%
UBS expects US GDP to grow 7.9% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021. That’s due mostly to Biden’s proposed stimulus money. Yet, there is huge pent up demand in many sectors including travel, hotels, flights, restaurants which will begin to improve in the 2nd half.
The Dow Jones, Russell, and S&P enjoyed a good week. What’s holding back the stock markets right now? Three things: Biden Presidency, inflation, and the belief that interest rates have to go up sometime. Smart investors look 6 months to 3 years down the road.
The S&P, Dow Jones reached new modern records and the NASDAQ and Russell moved nearer to their all time highs of 2007. It’s the Russell forecast that you should be looking into. Investors are wondering what to look at beyond interest rates. The February jobs report should be better. But is the unemployment picture much worse than the Democrats are suggesting?
The Covid 19 infection numbers need to plummet to consistently low levels before investors feel at ease. Make sure you check out the best stocks to buy, penny stocks, best tech stocks, best 5G stocks, and watch the top gainers and top sectors going. Check out the forecast for next week.
Inflation a Threat on the Horizon?
With the economic outlook brightening, Covid-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become an intriguing alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
Going to Be a Stock Market Crash?
A lot of people are wondering when there is going to be a market crash. When price chart timelines take a vertical direction, an equal and opposite begins begins on the other side.
We have to remember that current valuations are much too high and new earnings from the recovery may not change the P/E ratios in the last half of 2021. Many industries have built up huge debts, face higher taxes, and suffer lower revenues than pre-covid.
See more on the whole topic of crash factors, and investigate the will there be a stock market crash? question objectively. It will make you a better investor if you understand the threats.
More than a few market investors expect this inflating bubble of stock prices to collapse, but none can set a date for the event. That’s why it will come as a surprise, a combination of unlucky events sometime in the future. Most don’t think this epic historic crash can’t happen until 2023, due to the $2.1 stimulus funding being poured into the markets. However, if Biden inflates the markets/economy and then takes radical action to reign it in, it could happen. Don’t buy these stocks.
Many of the strongest stock market forecast factors are volatile and uncertain such as: trade relations, Covid 19 infections, new Covid 19 variant breakouts, government standoffs and responses, economic shutdowns, pessimism, election outcomes, inflation, job reports, citizen fatigue, and tax issues. The concern is more for beyond 2022.
Investors are wise to avoid being mired in microeconomic statistics and reports and celebrity advisors’ comments as the broader collective effects are what really powers a marketplace especially over the 3 month to 5 year periods. Stay up to date the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000.
Stock Markets Today at Close April 19, 2021:
The DOW and S&P surged to new record highs. Good employment and earnings reports are sending the indexes higher. Will NASDAQ be next to hit a new record in the next month? The price of gold surged this week, perhaps reflecting volatility and indecision about forecasts for the economy. The outlook for Tomorrow and next week looks positive.
3 Month Market Forecasts
See more on the new outlook for April, May and June in anticipation of strong economic performance for the 2nd half of 2021. The markets should keep their current rate of growth until May even with volatility.
Who else is bullish on the US Economy? Goldman Sachs for one. The company foresees GDP rising 6.4% for 2021, pushing the S&P up 14% to 3756, and growing to 4600 in 2022.
The Federal stimulus funds are on their way and there’s little doubt much of it will end up in the market this month. Yes, $1.9 Trillion will make a lot of people happy. Another factor to watch is inflation, which some say will really heat up. Inflation generally makes markets happy.
Additionally, vaccine production and distribution are progressing well, meaning there’s more optimism about the end of Covid 19. At the end of this 3 month period, a sizable number of vaccinations will have happened and it means the economy could recover faster than expected.
However, Americans in particular are becoming aware of how weak the Biden administration might be in producing strong economic growth and enabling US business. Other effects are being created via interstate business movement as companies try to elude high state taxes in New York, New Jersey and California and run to Florida And the housing market is forecasted to soar by spring.
Use good sense in your investment strategy and use stock market forecasts as a guide to gauge the key determinants of market trends.
Is a stock market crash or downturn even remotely possible over the next year? How about in the next 5 years? Should you wait and buy the lowest stocks in the next dip?
Hottest Market Sectors
Energy stocks are up on news of potential oil supply issues as the summer season begins with vaccinations taking place at a record pace in the US.
Market sectors with the most promise next week may be:
- consumer discretionary (travel, entertainment, retail)
- technology (computer hardware/software, and technological service industry companies)
- industrials (manufacturing, consumption and inflation drive commodity prices)
- real estate (builders, brokerages, multifamily, commercial)
- energy stocks (oil, green energy, electricity)
- medical and health care (biotech)
You can invest in promising sectors via sector funds.
6 Month Stock Market Forecast
Look ahead to the next 6 months. Moving into the summer season, with 100 million vaccinations completed, consumers and businesses get the green light to spend and sell.
S&P, NASDAQ, Russell and the DOW Jones look good for the next 6 months. The key to predicting the 6 month trend really sits on the end of Covid 19 and when most of the 40+ aged population are vaccinated. The perceived risk and return of retail shopping will major spending, and it’s perfect timing as the summer season hits with growing travel and housing market activity.
Best Stocks to Buy
Top Gaining Stocks (April 20)
Best Large & Mega Caps to Buy
Top Gainers Small & Mid Caps
US Economic Forecast
Market Factors affecting 2021 Outlook to watch:
- economy had a solid 4% growth in the 4th quarter 2020
- inflation rises and low interest rates pushing treasury and bond prices down
- markets climbed as investors seem optimistic
- corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
- Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
- $5 trillion sitting in money markets
- Oil price is rising to $63 a barrel
- S&P, and Dow keep reaching new records and NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are next
- US dollar is falling
- new government injecting $2.1 trillion in stimulus
- Covid pandemic moving past its worst months?
- trade war with China continues to heat up emotionally
- Facebook, Google and Amazon stocks under pressure of DOJ anti-trust investigations
- renter evictions, landlord bankruptcies looming
- jobs reports very strong
- earnings reports so far are strong
5 Year Long Term Forecast is Optimistic
The 5 year stock market forecast (and 5 year housing market forecast ) look really good too because the American consumer is well employed and will see plenty of jobs as business is rebuilt from the ground up. Intent to buy homes is strong and construction rates will grow fast through the spring. If the economy stutters, the Biden admin will not be reluctant to give stimulus. Small business will need a transfusion, and it will get one.
The latest US jobs report is excellent. The 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales and wishful thinking over the 5 year term.
Bank and Broker Forecasts
Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace in 2021 and forecasts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, and driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings.
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and LPL Financial see the S&P rising 6% to reach 3,900. Oppenheimer boldly sees it hitting 4300.
Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Some believe they’re a good buy during a coming market correction. Buy the correction they say.
Will Self Directed Investors be the Story in the Next 3 Months?
The growth of self-directed trading is impressive as day trading investors feel they can find the best stocks on their own. With the level of insight and opinion and stats available online, these self-directed investors are still guided by the same investment pros. It could be Wall Street feels threatened by a change in the investment landscape, with new investment tools, software and advisors becoming more in vogue.
There are plenty of ups and downs recently though to keep them cautious. And the odds of a stock market crash are low right now.
If self-directed stock trading is working for you, please let me know in the comments at bottom.
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Still wondering about the Amazon stock price, Google stock price, and Facebook stock price forecast? Brush up on the Apple stock price lately. Anti-monopoly winds are blowing stronger and might hit gale force closer to the election as neither political party supports monopolies.
Important news of recent is the intent of US lawmakers looking to invest tens of billions of dollars in microchip manufacturing in the US. China has been pouring money into that industry. The rationale for this is due to the pre-eminence of chips in tech innovation as AI, 5G and robotics require faster, newer chips.
What Caused the Last Stock Market Drop in April 2020?
Here’s the key factors that took the market down in March and April.
- Corona Virus work stoppage – no income, cities emptied,
- a WHO global pandemic declaration
- growth in US virus cases and deaths
- US travel bans for Americans and advice to stay at home
- oil price wars
- bond market weakness
- global economic setbacks
- government corrective actions not enough to solve the issues
When Will US Consumers Return to Save the Markets?
It will take more than a 3 month shock to upset consumers. Banks too are very strong coming out of this recession. Bailouts help.
Questions About the Stock Markets
Your questions about stock prediction and the Stock Markets are likely regarding which are the best stocks to buy, which index has better performing stocks, and whether you should invest in the big tech companies? The markets are peaking so what will drive stock prices higher? Should you buy Tesla Stock, or Apple Stock and play follow the leader, or speculate on some energy stocks or even penny stocks?
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Nevertheless, the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000 long term outlook are once again positive. The reason the majors have been doing so well, is due to the struggles of small business.
See more on the best stocks to buy including penny stocks, oil stocks, 5G stocks, and perhaps small caps on the Russell index. Check up on why Amazon stock, Google stock, and Facebook stock. Brush up on the Apple stock price lately.
Check the Tesla stock forecast along with forecasts for Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Netflix. See the post on best stock picks, best 5G stocks, and whether oil stocks are the best bargains of 2020.
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Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2021. Tesla stock price is on fire.
More interesting insight: Housing Market Downturn | Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market Correction | Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? | Hedging a Stock Market Crash | 3 to 6 month Outlook | Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market Crash Signals | Stock Investing | Stock Investing Sites | Self-Directed Stock Investing | 6 Month Forecast | Housing Market Predictions 2022 | Oil Price Forecast | Russell 2000 Forecast | Will Stock Prices Fall in 2021? | Best 5G Stocks | Stock Market Forecast 2022 | Google Stock Price Forecast | Apple Stock Price Forecast | AI Stock Market Prediction | Tesla Stock Price Outlook | Amazon Stock Price Outlook | US Economic Forecast 2021 | US Job Outlook 2021