Stock Market Predictions
2021 market predictions are becoming fewer and far between as a litany of negative factors weigh in. A potential Biden win in the Presidential election, growing Covid 19 surge and possible shutdowns, stimulus aid stalls, stubborn unemployment, and uncertainty about ending the Corona Virus era clouds the outlook.
The 2021 forecast has to take these key risk factors into account. The stock markets ended up on Friday, the only bright note after a series of stock selloffs. The concern now is a major selloff in October, and possible crash after November 3rd.
Those who believe the Dems could win will be looking to dump their stock and move their money to safety. There’s is nothing to support benefits for market investors in a Democrat led government. High taxes, deficit spending, regulation, increased imports all point to bad times for American companies.
It’s enough to start the fall stock market slide. And fall is always the danger season. Keep your eye on Covid case numbers as we enter October. Even the great recent news from Pfizer’s 800 out of 800 vaccine success in trials announced this week can’t stem the negative force of a potential Biden win. Pfizer may turn out to be the big winner in the race to the vaccine.
Keeping the status quo politically would help stabilize the markets, however the Dems are persistently blocking the President from delivering relief, which is a bad sign for the markets. The outlook for 2021 really depends on the election.
The Big Tech Selloff
One investment expert feels there will a sell off of tech stocks due to excessive valuations. The thought is that a cyclical change is moving money to industrials, away from tech companies. The sector stats (below) don’t back that up though. Tech lost big time while construction, real estate and industrials all lost too. See all the stocks charts below.
Next week, Tesla is holding its battery day and we’ll all learn more about their new amazing battery that seemingly lasts forever. See more on Tesla stock and experience the big Tesla battery day event on Tuesday right here on this site. Only interested in the Fangs? Learn more about Google stock, Facebook stock, Apple stock, Amazon stock, and peer into the 3 month forecast.
The vaccine stocks are back in the news and it looks like progress is happening and perhaps the vaccinations are closer than most realize.
The Fed’s J Powell promises to keep interest rates low, but that didn’t excite investors too much. The high job claim numbers peaked some fears about a fall economic slowdown ahead of the big event on November 3rd.
And investors and stock advisors are still processing the news from the FED, regarding inflation, and what that potentially means for the US economy. Investors are nervous anticipating the election in 2 months, as it will have a major impact on stock market directions and stock prices.
Tesla Stock Price Ups and Downs
Elon Musk keeps making news surrounding TESLA with the upcoming battery day and Musk’s speculation on electric powered airplanes. They’ve announced plans for two new cars. He is spinning a PR masterpiece with his stories.
Stock experts are advising investors to buy more of the FAANG level stocks and less of small business. That’s understandable as the Russell has only been about as good as the Dow lately. It appears more money was chasing the best tech stocks such as Tesla, Apple, BioNTech, and Nvidia. BioNTech released good results from its vaccine tests.
The vaccine companies are sending off negative signals which may have impacted this week’s sell off. It’s drawn more interest back to Cramer’s Covid stocks. Vaccination is the holy grail. Lots of stock market news lately including that about Tesla’s stock price leap. The next stimulus Virus aid package is still in limbo however news is that small business aid is reaching small companies now.
It might be wise to get well acquainted with the 5G stocks as the technology is rolled out without Huawei.
The Majors Last 4 months
The chart shows how phenomenal the growth of the stock markets have been this past summer.
Apple stock price fell $28 during September alone so far which amounts to almost half a trillion dollars in market value. There’s a lot of disappointment in Apple with no new iPhone introduced.
And with a potential fall season Covid 19 surge with a potential new anti-business President, there are huge worries for investors, creating more talk about a potential stock market crash. How will you be hedged?
Top Performing Sectors
Top Gaining Stocks
All stocks except small caps:
Top Performing Large Caps
Top Performing Mid Caps
Let’s take a roll call of the markets as of today:
- economy did beat predictions for the 2nd quarter
- corporate earnings look good — devastation reports didn’t come true
- Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
- $5 trillion sitting in money markets
- Gold price is rising
- NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow keep steadily rising
- US dollar is falling
- US Presidential election only 6 weeks away
- trade war with China continues to heat up emotionally
- Facebook, Google and Amazon stocks all rising
- Ford made billion profit even though sales slumped
- renter evictions, landlord bankruptcies – will new stimulus avoid a crash in the housing sector?
- unemployment claims rise after Covid resurgence grows shutdowns
How quickly everyone forgets the earnings reports and doomsday “too high” assessments. Right now, every sector is seeing strongly price growth. Optimism is contained, but will be unleashed as a vaccine appears.
Institutional and retail stock market investors believe in the long term outlook of the US economy, and that enthusiasm is showing right now. Concerns still persist about the next 6 months through the winter, if a vaccine isn’t distributed by then.
Stock Market Chart Timeline Last 3 Months
After a nice rise, investors felt early September was an opportune time to take some profits. The sell off was notable as the VIX has been very high lately.
Chart for Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P and Russell indexes for last 3 months:
CBOE Volatility Chart
Stock Market Outlook 2021: Lean and Mean and Ready to Grow
You’d wonder how corporate earnings could be okay given the shutdown. Yet, these US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. See more on the Tesla stock forecast.
Markets were raised by good news of Vaccine success and corporate earnings reports. While the threat and fallout from the deliberate actions of rioters and beach/drinking youth have been a nasty assault on the US economy and the confidence of Americans, the outlook is getting brighter.
A Vaccine Will Stifle the Market Pessimists
The media has really been negative on the economy, exaggerating short term issues and pushing stock market crash scenarios. They’re pushing the “vaccines won’t work” theme too. However, good news from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna suggests significant progress toward a successful, widely available Covid 19 Vaccine is not far off. See more on the vaccine stocks.
Any good news from the Vaccine companies creates an upward boost in all stock markets worldwide. When the successful vaccine is verified and tested, that will end the pessimism completely. An easy prediction — the stock markets will rocket.
Radical solutions needed: If the President enforces job repatriation from China, raises tariffs, and supports US small business, it would turbocharge the economy, making the 2021 stock market outlook exciting. And there’s much more about the US economy to support a positive stock market outlook — new efficiencies.
The Markets Today:
- S&P 500 : 3,319.47 ↓
- Dow Jones 30 : 27,657.42 ↓
- Nasdaq : 10,793.28 ↓
- Russell 2000 : 1,536.78 ↓
- Crude Oil: $40.98 a barrel ↓
- Gold: $1,957.10 per ounce ↓
The stock market price trends show investors are undaunted as their underlying belief is that the US economic machine will prevail. Adding to the upside potential is a $4 to $5 Trillion pool of cash parked in money markets. The slumping US dollar (will it be devalued?) has to worry the cash holding crowd and they may be moving that money to the equity markets now.
What will be the next complaint/tactic to try to slow the stock markets?
What is the Story Right now in the Stock Market?
Immediately, it still is on whether President Trump can hang onto the Presidency and the pro-America agenda. And it’s all about Covid 19 management, and whether stocks have been overbought and are overpriced. Tech stocks on the NASDAQ have been very strong.
See below for the 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year forecasts and predictions.
Yet, if you’re a long term investor, the summer volatility won’t matter much. Most companies will survive the Covid 19 infection period as we head to a vaccine distribution. The real issue for investors is which companies will endure the change and come out winners in 2021.
The growth of self-directed trading is impressive as investors feel they can find the best stocks on their own. With the level of insight and opinion and stats available online, these self-directed investors are still guided by the same investment pros. It could be Wall Street feels threatened by a change in the investment landscape, with new investment tools, software and advisors becoming more in vogue.
If self-directed trading is working for you, please let me know in the comments at bottom.
Stock Indexes This Week
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000 long term outlook are once again positive. The reason the majors have been doing so well, is due to the struggles of small business.
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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer
CNBC’s Jim Cramer talked of stocks being overbought and other experts talk about P/E ratios that are ridiculously high. Another correction doesn’t seem outlandish, but today’s stock market price jump shows momentum in on the side of the market optimists.
See more on the best stocks to buy including Vaccine stocks, 5G stocks, and perhaps small caps on the Russell index. Still wondering about the Amazon stock price, Google stock price, and Facebook stock price forecast? Brush up on the Apple stock price lately. Anti monopoly winds are blowing stronger and might hit gale force closer to the election as neither political party supports monopolies.
Important news of recent is the intent of US lawmakers looking to invest tens of billions of dollars in microchip manufacturing in the US. China has been pouring money into that industry. The rationale for this is due to the pre-eminence of chips in tech innovation as AI, 5G and robotics require faster, newer chips.
That means it’s a national security imperative to have microchips made in the US (see Intel, AMD and Nvidia stocks).
Where are they Headed in September, October and November?
Where is the market headed for September, October and November and the next 6 months? Likely they are stuttering as the election approaches. It’s that time now where the economy is on the line, where on parties voters don’t care if it crashes, as they focus on climate change on containing Covid 19? Yes, that’s what they said.
Cramer Talks Down Stimulus Spending
However, Jim Cramer believed the stimulus won’t work because of social distancing. As long as people have to stay 6 feet apart, they won’t be flying, commuting on transit, eating at packed restaurants, attending big league sports, and working.
Cramer adds concern by saying the stimulus payments ended up in the bank accounts of the big corporations who will end up furloughing employees at some point. We need a Corona Virus vaccine badly, so is support for the vaccine companies is perhaps a wiser choice?
In the meantime, the violent protests could get get worse, as unemployment, boredom and homelessness are set to rocket. The specter of a housing crash keeps creeping in. Hopefully, reopening businesses will accelerate revenue. Those who have work at home arrangements could succeed. The work model is definitely going to change and work at home is a fantastic route out of this recession.
Stock Market News
What’s the relevant stock market related news this week?
- unemployment claims lower but still in the millions
- consumer sentiment index rose to 73.7 for May, up from April’s 71.8
- U.S. retail sales jumped in May to $447 Billion
- retail store discount pricing helping to grow sales
- President Trump pressuring Corona Virus researchers for vaccine by end of year
- US China cold war looking more certain and China’s supply chain in jeopardy
- President Trump puts the Kibosh on Democrat’s stimulus plan
- President Trump blocks computer chip sales to China
- consumers running out of stockpiled items and starting to penny pinch at retail
- another big retailer goes bankrupt
Investors are wondering if now is the time to buy cheap stocks with big potential in 2021, or if this market still hasn’t seen its bottom. Smart investors buy when the best stocks are cheap. We’re near the bottom or second drop in the W recovery. But should get greedy and wait some more. Jim Cramer advised to buy 2 months ago.
See what Cramer’s says about these latest “selling squalls” on the stock markets.
Check the Tesla stock forecast along with forecasts for Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Netflix. See the post on best stock picks, best 5G stocks, and whether oil stocks are the best bargains of 2020.
Investing in Vaccine Stocks
Should you buy Corona Virus vaccine stocks? There’s a 100 horses in the race for the vaccine. Are Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson (still has asbestos powder law suits pending) with ones with the least downside, given they have a regular range of consumer products to fall back on? They may come up with a vaccine too. Some of them pay no dividends, and if they did produce a vaccine, they might become a takeover target.
Check out the top 5 Covid Vaccine stocks:
Some economists and experts forecasted a W shaped recovery. Is the second dip looming, or are we free and clear from here on in?
As lawsuits and trade embargos begin against China in the last half of 2020, we’ll see more market instability. A cold war is looming and that will bode well for the US economy.
Barchart’s Top Gainers
I’m sure you want to get to the top gaining stocks to see which are positioned to rocket higher.
The reopening of businesses across the US added to a potential additional trillion dollar aid package means the economy could be ready to bolt forward. President Trump and the Fed seem to be getting behind the resurgence.
If we get past the dour 3 month and 6 month outlook, the 1 year, 5 year and 10 year projections for the US stock markets look promising. If Trump is returned to office in November, 2021 will be the beginning of strong stock market bull run. The oil price forecast could make the start up period even better.
If Biden is elected, we’re looking at an immediate stock market and economic crash followed by unprecedented government stimulus to stop the damage. As investment in the US equities would be curtailed, unemployment would be rampant and
Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 companies will fall 33% total in 2020, and then rocket up higher than 50% in 2021. We’re into a troubled period right with a very uncertain outlook for the US, and for the world. Any stoppage in US consumer spending during the pandemic could start an irreversible slide in 2021.
Corona Virus Stocks, Trending Stocks, or the Best Long Term Value?
If longer term projections and outlook are your guide, it’s just a matter of finding the best stocks to buy. Check out the top trending stocks of late and recheck gold stocks too. The race for a Covid 19 vaccine is providing a lucrative payday for lucky investors: see the top vaccine stocks. There’s big talk of oil stocks, but there is no demand for oil so production cuts won’t work. Also, review the Dow Jones forecast for it’s 3 to 6 month projections.
Other economists and stock market forecasters (Jim Cramer too) are suggesting a U shaped recovery is ahead of us, or that we’re already into it. Others believe this is a W shaped recovery with the next dip just ahead. A brief mini recession would fulfill the prophecy.
VIX Volatility and the 3 to 6 Month Forecast
What is clouding the 3 month and 6 month forecast? The election for the most part along with Dem calls for higher taxes, open borders, and regulations on US oil production. And it’s the slow return of consumers, a resurgence of Covid 19, low GDP output and US manufacturing, low corporate and business earnings, small business decimation, rent due, poor earnings reports, persistent unemployment and overall pessimism fueled by the dem media.
The plight of small business is important to note. The failure rate of SMBs could be high in the next 3 months, and travel related businesses may not recover at all till late 2021.
Also clouding the long term 5 to 10 year projections is a global debt crisis fueled by every nation spending all they can to survive this pandemic period.
Which are the Best Stocks to Buy Now?
One stock market analyst said this could be W recovery instead of a V or U shaped recovery. That means we could be in for another mini stock market crash, or let down. The fact China has recovered and is opening up for business again, means the US will likely follow a similar path.
Jobless Claims Jumping
Last week’s 1.5 million jobless claims added to 20+ million unemployed isn’t phasing the stock market outlook. Given gold and oil, and real estate might not be suitable alternatives, investors are fully booked with next years stock values. Optimism is strong.
The approval of the $2 Trillion economic stimulus package is finally giving hope to investors. See the stats and videos below. If we’re not at the bottom of this recent bear market or stock market crash, at least the 2021 stock market forecast is much brighter.
In this post, see the: latest trends and projections, top gaining stocks, top losing stocks, what caused the recent market crash, the 5 year forecast from different sources, a sector watch, along with the best stocks to buy during this dip phase. Good luck finding the best stocks. And it might be time to investigate AI stock prediction. I Know First is claiming its stock market forecast based on deep-learning generated returns up to 161.77% in 3 Months.
Which Stocks Will You Grab Up?
Jim Cramer says to look for individual company stocks because he’s sure they’re going to rise strongly. No need for ETF’s at all! Check out Google stock price, Apple Stock Price, Amazon Stock Price and Tesla Stock price.
It appears we’re officially into a stock market crash. Smart investors won’t be panicking. They’ll be patiently examining top losing stocks and combing through the best bargain stocks. There’s nowhere to invest other than stocks, so investors are buying $USD it appears.
It’s an embarrassing time for the stock experts as they can’t get a grip on what’s happening in these markets. The Fed just announced another rate cut and the government is preparing stimulus to help struggling businesses.
What Caused the stock market crash?
Here’s the key factors that took the market down in March and April. Now we’re on the incline and the 5 year outlook is especially good (for investors who buy the best stocks now).
- Corona Virus work stoppage
- a WHO pandemic declaration
- growth in US virus cases and deaths
- US travel bans for Americans and advice to stay at home
- oil price wars
- bond market weakness
- global economic setbacks
- government corrective actions not enough to solve the issues
Which are the Best Bargain Stocks to Buy?
Smart stock market investors are researching all the major exchanges for the best bargain stocks to buy. It might mean watching stocks daily to see which low priced stocks have the best upside potential. NASDAQ and the tech stocks seem to in demand, as the virus runs its course.
The run on Price of Gold recently may show the oil countries are selling gold to say afloat. The price of oil has sunk below $20 a barrel again today. It will be a boon for most American consumers, and others around the world as vehicle use and travel restart. Price of gasoline from California to New York has dropped significantly.
While all of this extreme market volatility is subsiding, investors worldwide are still nervous. Investment advisors and experts will have their ultimate tests in the coming weeks and months. Volatility and political strife seems to beget more of it.
The Stock Market Forecast
However, the pandemic hasn’t hit the US. The US economy is still solid and improving, but is it exempt from the virus fallout? Some suggest the US will actually benefit from China’s new disease as manufacturers decide that production should move back to America.
Here are the key factors affecting the ever improving outlook for the US stock market:
- US job numbers — jobs will come back by 2021, but lower than before
- The April PMI® fell to 41.5%, down 7.6% from the March reading of 49.1%
- fears about Corona Virus in North America beginning to decline (case number falling)
- President Trump weathering the Democrat media storm
- interest rates will stay low and perhaps go negative
- More talk about US import tariffs and US self-reliance
- weak earnings but not as bad as expected
- US companies such as Tesla making a lot of noise
- oil (forecast to sink below $40) and no demand growth for 2020
- US dollar looking stronger
Market Forecast for Next 6 to 9 Months
Economic recessions, normally end with a rocketing surge, usually because interest rates drop. This graph shows the current recovery from 2008 is one of the slowest on record. That might mean there’s much more left in the tank to keep this bull stock market going.
Once in a lifetime Opportunity for big short term and long term equity gains. See the Best Stocks to Buy
Check the extensive stock price list and stats below for best picks. Also check out the AI stock picks, and AI stock trading software and see the market pages for real time price quotes.
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For a year that was predicted to be a total waste due to rising interest rates, trade wars, tariffs, political embargos, and a global slowdown, 2019 didn’t turn out all that badly. Hopefully this optimism will brighten the housing market forecast for 2021 after languishing in pessimism.
When Will US Consumers Return to Save the Markets?
It will take more than a 3 month shock to upset consumers. Banks too are very strong coming out of this recession. Bailouts help. And President Trump has made no mention of taking action on the US monopolies, Google, Facebook, and Amazon which would cause a ruffle for a while. We’d have to think the FAANGs will do well in 2020 until monopoly charges are finally laid.
Questions About the Stock Markets
Your questions about stock prediction and the Stock Markets are likely regarding which are the best stocks to buy, which index has better performing stocks, and whether you should invest in the big tech companies? The markets are peaking so what will drive stock prices higher? Should you buy Tesla Stock, or Apple Stock and play follow the leader?
What is the Stock Market Outlook for the Next 5 Years?
The long term stock market outlook to 2024 looks more promising each month because many of the market detractors are losing credibility. Take a look at long forecasts predictions for the S&P
Will Stock Prices Rise in 2021?
That depends a lot on the outcome of the election. Rising taxes, capital gains taxes, mounting debt, growing trade deficits, return of China imports, and the flight of investment capital could all point to a stock market crash.
If the status quo is maintained, the capital will stay and we only have to wait for the Covid 19 vaccine.
Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2020. Tesla stock price is on fire.
It’s still wise to take a look at smaller, up and coming tech stocks on the Russell index in anticipation of a hot economy in 10 months from now.
5 Year Long Term Forecast Optimistic
The 5 year and long term outlook to 2024 look really good too because the American consumer is well employed. The latest jobs outlook report is excellent. The 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales.
Find the best stock picks that are making the biggest improvements below and more about the 2020 stock market forecast. Apple has hit new highs while Amazon and Netflix suffer. Find out what Jim Cramer of Mad Money thinks of the stock markets and the best industries.
Volatility from the Trade Deal: Splitting up a China agreement into phases likely won’t be successful. However, there is hope that something positive will evolve from negotiations with China.
Every time Trump hits China with penalties, the US stock markets jump, tariff revenues skyrocket and US business revenues rise.
Continue to Stock Market Forecast Part 2
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