Gasoline Price Predictions

As inflation persists and oil prices rise, the forecast for gasoline prices is as well. You might be very happy to own an EV.

Gasoline prices are up 2.65% in the past 5 days, yet are down yet again 2% today. Can anyone possibly forecast gasoline prices? It seems they’re struggling which is a big problem for investors who must rely on their own personal judgement as to whether the economy and politicians will allow market forces to determine prices.


Energy investors might want to focus more on the political manipulation of oil markets as a truer guide of future pricing for the near term. Regardless of who is in political power after November of 2024, as natural market forces will make a big comeback as supplies dwindle. 

This would suggest oil prices and gasoline prices will be on the rise in 2024 and more likely 2025.  Oil company investors may have to hold on, or buy and hold, for a few years before their big payday.

See the stats below from Trading Economics, AAA, Google Finance, and EIA to help you gauge whether energy company stocks are the investment with the most potential for the next two years.  Buy low, sell high.

The key to the gasoline price increases is that oil companies will use all their spare capacity, and gas refineries will max out. It’s a threat in normal times, and will become a crisis when the Fed allows the economy to resume.  Although only 57% of gas price arises from oil, oil prices are forecast thus result in immediate price growth as well.

Pipelines, refining and transportation add to the price. With limited refinery capacity, shut down pipelines, and higher maintenance and transport costs, and truckers off the job, it’s not hard to see a big mess ahead.

Can Anyone Possibly Make a Reliable Forecast?

Given market volatility, political instability, and secret purchases of oil from Russia by China, and continued suppression of US exploration and production, SPR oil releases, and other consumer demand factors, who can confidently provide a reliable forecast?

It’s a political football and only political forecasts can create reliable gasoline forecasts.  The key factor is Joe Biden releasing SPR oil and promising fake buy backs later on, that makes speculation very risky in gasoline or oil. 

Even the top forecasting entities struggle, red faced at poor projections;

Goldman Sachs has maintained its forecasts for a higher crude oil price tag.

“Our forecast remains that Brent rises to $95 per barrel by December and $100 per barrel by April 2024 as we expect large deficits in H2,” — Goldman Sachs oil price forecast.


As you know that hasn’t panned out. However, it tells us they see prices rising and that might be all we can get out of there projections. You have to admit, we’re a long way from $100 a barrel. It could be these organizations are blinded by political allegiance and won’t take political manipulation into account. Their oil price projections are based more on supply and demand fundamentals.

The Democrats are talking higher taxes as part of the Debt ceiling negotiations, 

Well, if we take a simple approach and seek the predictions of some oil and energy industry experts, we might get a good idea. However, their forecasts for oil are between $65 to $200. And almost none of them will touch the topic of gasoline price predictions.

If you want to hedge this big expense, consider investing in oil stocks and Canadian oil stocks in particular.

Gasoline Futures

Gasoline Futures. Screenshot courtesy of Google Finance.

If you live in the US and you’re outraged at gas prices, consider the plight of Canadian gas buyers who pay an equivalent of $4.60 per gallon in US dollars. And remember that Canadian wages are much lower and winter is colder. And in some part of northern Europe, they pay almost 3 times US gasoline prices.

So the whole world is hurting after international political efforts made against oil drilling. What goes around is coming back to bite as it should, in ultra high gasoline prices.

Today’s Average Gas Price: $3.57 a Gallon

As of today, May 25th, 2023 the average gasoline price across the USA is $US 3.57per gallon. Diesel fuel is priced at 3.88 per gallon which is well down from two years ago.  Those prices make transportation and travel a viable activity, and as prices grow we should see transportation and travel stocks take a plunge in 2024.

Checking in with AAA on the gas prices across each state ( is appropriate given the summer auto driving season could be the most brisk one yet. With air flights hard to come by and overpriced, Americans and Canadians will be driving this year, likely to more distant vacation spots. That means even more gas consumption than normal thus the forecasted rise in price.

US Gasoline Prices.
US Gasoline Prices. Screenshot courtesy of AAA.

Does anyone still use premium grade gasoline? Apparently so, and that must be painful.

Gasoline price forecast.
Gasoline price forecast. Screenshot courtesy of Trading Economics.

EIA, the US Energy department reports that consumption will rise, yet has posted oil price predictions of $65 to $80 a Barrel. They forecast a small increase on average of about 24 cents a gallon in gas prices. As we know, these prediction are off the mark, as the government’s EIA department can’t seem to get it right anytime. 

Oil Price and Gas Price Forecast.
Oil Price and Gas Price Forecast. Screenshot courtesy of EIA.

As the gas history price chart shows, they predict prices will fall into next year. Wow, that is a bold outlook. The only way that could happen would be through an economic shock and recession. While a stock market crash and housing market crash are a real possibility, the economy is strong and not likely to plunge. We’ll see what transpires with the Russians.

Oil production is climbing but is not expected to keep up with demand. Already, OPEC+ is struggling to keep up production. And any unusual event, such as a war, would provide a significant disruption creating an emergency situation.

Screenshot courtesy of EIA. Regular gas price history chart

Read more on the oil price forecast and discover some great oil stocks to buy now.

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