US Home Prices
It’s no secret that home prices in the US have been on an upward tear. NAR forecasted a 5.7% increase during 2021, yet that conservative price estimate will likely be revised before long.
Because the most recent home price reports have the rate at 17%. Yes, the most recent home price report from NAR shows record prices and a trend that is up, up and up. You can read more about home prices in March in the housing market report.
According to NAR, the median existing-home sales price in March rose by a record-breaking annual pace of 17.2% to a new median high price of $329,100. All 4 US housing regions saw double-digit increases in home prices.
The new average single-family house price rose 18.4% to $334,500, and the median price for condos rose 9.6% from 12 months ago to $289,000 last month.
Suburban Home Prices Growing Fastest
Even with the pandemic exodus, buyers are drawn more to the suburbs, than urban or rural areas. Is this a supply issue, or is it expected they will be called back to the office after the pandemic has ended?
See more details on Florida home prices, California home prices, New York home prices, Boston home prices and Chicago home prices. Check recent home price growth in Seattle, San Antonio, Salt Lake City, Atlanta, Tampa, San Diego, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Denver, Houston, Austin and Colorado Springs.
Home Price Growth in the Major US Metros
|Chart data courtesy of NAR
|Top Price Growth US Cities|
|City||Median Listing Price Growth YoY||Median Listing Price|
|Austin-Round Rock, Texas||40.60%||$515,000|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.||23.60%||$1,114,000|
|Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.||22.00%||$512,000|
|Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.||20.70%||$392,000|
|Oklahoma City, Okla.||19.70%||$313,000|
|New Orleans-Metairie, La.||19.20%||$345,000|
|San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.||17.30%||$852,000|
|Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.||17.30%||$327,000|
|Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.||15.70%||$254,000|
|Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.||15.30%||$379,000|
|Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas||14.10%||$355,000|
|San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.||13.60%||$1,062,000|
|St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.||13.50%||$266,000|
|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas||12.00%||$380,000|
|New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.||9.30%||$629,000|
|San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas||9.00%||$324,000|
|Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.||8.80%||$310,000|
|Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.||8.10%||$368,000|
|Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.||4.80%||$418,000|
|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.||3.30%||$1,238,000|
|Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.||1.40%||$323,000|
|Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.||1.20%||$506,000|
|Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.||0.20%||$366,000|
|Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.||-0.90%||$272,000|
|Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.||-2.40%||$332,000|
In March, the median price in the Northeast was $364,800, up 21.4% from March 2020 while home prices in the Midwest rose 13.5% to $248,200, a 13.5% . In the US South region home prices jumped 15.6% to $283,900 while the median price in the West rose to $493,300, up 16.8% from March 2020.
Buyers from California to Texas to Florida and New York are asking about a possible housing price crash, but the economy doesn’t look like it will suffer a setback anytime soon. Once the wishful thinking subsides and house construction picks up, we’ll see more confidence that house prices will continue high but more homebuyers will be successful.
As of April, buyers are entering into more contracts. That means more homeowners are selling and some of the demand is being filled. That’s progress albeit at a lofty price level.
Many buyers will settle into an apartment and condo renter lifestyle and put away dreams of affording a house of their own. Over the next two years, more homeowners will sell their homes. They didn’t sell because of the pandemic health threat and because there was no where to move to.
But freeing up thousands of homes won’t quell demand, as immigrants and foreign students re-enter the US.
Florida Home Prices
As the pandemic recedes, many more are expected to sell their house. This flood of homes could cause a downturn, or just flatten prices for the rest of 2021. Refer to the US housing market report for stats on buyer sentiment and economic indictors.
Redfin reports top cities for Home Price Growth for March
Are we in the midst of a housing bubble? It does look like, and we’re not at the peak of prices. Are a large number of homebuyers dreaming of a housing market crash? Buyers are eager to buy into a seriously supercharged housing market. This euphoric exuberance of buyers is part of every news article now.
Realtor.com housing Market Forecast 2021
Last year, price growth before the pandemic stood around 8%. Logic tells us with a recovery plus trillions in stimulus money along with low construction levels, huge demand and low mortgage rates, that home price growth could exceed 20%.
CNBC reports on fast rising home prices
Whether it’s resale homes or new homes, the economy is reawakening with fits and starts due to the pandemic. We haven’t seen a synchronicity in this yet. Both resale and new home inventory is low, especially product in the starter home price category. Sales of luxury priced homes however are booming.
Demand and Liquidity Should Spur Home Buying
Improving economy + low inventory + first time buyer growth + low mortgage rates has to spell home price increases. Sales of resale homes were still down in May yet sales volume is increasing. Many sellers are hesitant to sell right now with nowhere to go. Buyers will have to pay more to get them to part with their precious property.
Prices were flat or rising slightly, and this is still a depressed economy with shutdowns continuing in effect.
There will be second wave of Covid 19 and it will make its effects felt, like it did recently on the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ today. Yet buyers show an enthusiasm and demand for moving into roomier, more rural location. Experts are underestimating this. See more on all housing markets including Florida and California on the US Housing report.
Fastest home price appreciation in Philadelphia, San Jose, and Nashville.
March 2021 Monthly Housing Market Trends
The March national median listing price rose 15.6% to $370,000 and large cities experienced average price gains of 12.1% compared to 12 months ago.
Case Shiller Price Forecasts
Last June, Corelogic predicted a home price drop in 2021. That has not transpired and likely won’t anytime soon.
The big migration out of the cities continues to the burbs and smaller towns. This is likely to take some of the pressure off of apartments, condos and other high density housing this year. Yet, single family and other lower density homes should still draw buyers.
Housing Price Hotness Index
NAR offers its rating of the hottest housing markets:
|City||Nielsen hotness Index||hotness_rank||hotness_rank this month||supply score||demand score||median listing price|
|iowa city, ia||240||77||158||100||34.8||$281,900|
|iowa city, ia||240||127||135||98||14.0||$276,000|
|rapid city, sd||265||54||123||70||72.6||$305,712|
|buffalo-cheektowaga-niagara falls, ny||47||50||120||71||74.6||$240,000|
|iowa city, ia||240||179||105||82||5.0||$289,900|
|myrtle beach-conway-north myrtle beach, sc-nc||111||188||97||17||66.6||$255,000|
|ann arbor, mi||142||101||92||61||62.9||$456,990|
|state college, pa||270||39||90||72||86.0||$337,314|
|sebastian-vero beach, fl||254||130||86||57||53.2||$346,850|
|warner robins, ga||229||82||86||91||40.5||$236,773|
|cedar rapids, ia||169||108||85||80||43.1||$229,621|
|fort collins, co||147||68||84||79||60.5||$529,500|
|rocky mount, nc||274||75||84||46||85.3||$186,950|
|la crosse-onalaska, wi-mn||293||41||83||68||86.3||$261,650|
|st. cloud, mn||223||121||81||65||49.2||$287,200|
|st. cloud, mn||223||82||81||61||71.2||$269,900|
|atlanta-sandy springs-roswell, ga||9||123||78||63||47.5||$352,088|
Please do Share on Facebook with your Friends!
In the burbs and outlying towns, particularly in the midwest, we could see bidding wars.
As you can see, home prices in the major metros were doing well. These are price growth numbers from the last 12 months including the last very difficult three months.
The Migration out of Cities
People are becoming more mobile as high home costs push them out of congested, high priced urban areas to more affordable regions. The new work at home mandate means workers don’t have to be chained to their employer’s physical office location. And employers too may abandon urban sites for new locations in America’s heartland. They’re looking for the best cities to buy real estate.
Case Shiller Home Price History Chart
The housing experts need to take another look at this chart (see also the housing crash timeline chart). Even through the worst mini-recession ever, home prices keep rising. This upward direction is steepening as it did in 2005/2006.
Is this the best time to buy a home? Will buyers get a break later on in 2020 if they wait? Is this a buyers market? It just may be the right time as the forecast is a return of price growth after the current slowdown.
Can you assess a housing market without looking at:
- economic predictions,
- consumer confidence
- wages and employment
- GDP and trade deficits
- work at home trends
- fears of disease in high density regions, going forward
- stock market predictions?
Check the health and predictions for major cities: Los Angeles, New York, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Diego, Miami, Boston, Bay Area, Sacramento, and Atlanta. See forecasts for California housing and Florida housing markets.
Reuters polled a number of housing market analysts at the end of a weak month in home sales, and this is still what they believe going forward to 2021:
A look back at how right they were about home price rises. With the cessation of the Corona Virus, the demand for homes will resume.
The most recent Reuters poll reflects a belief in rising home prices yet are less enthusiastic about price rises. And they’re divided. 19 of 34 analysts said U.S. housing market activity this year was likely to accelerate while the other 15 analysts believe it would slow.
The Jan. 12-Feb. 1 poll of nearly 40 housing analysts forecast the U.S. Case-Shiller house price index to rise 5.7% this year and 4.6% in 2022, the highest since polling began for both periods
Freddie Mac Forecast
Freddie Mac points to higher mortgage rates until they throttle the economy in 2020. If the economic forecast is dire, then interest rates would fall. Higher rates would serve to raise home prices, if the economy hangs in there.
Forisk forecasts solid levels of home construction peaking in 2023 and sustained to 2027, although tailing due to satiated demand and rising interest rates.
And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.” That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.
Best Cities to Invest?
Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities to buy property.
For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?
Top Home Price Growth Trends
Price growth varies each quarter. These are the latest prices from Kiplinger. California cities come in as the least affordable in the nation. New York, Washington DC, Honolulu, and Seattle are right up there.
|Rank||City (updated Jan 2019)||Price Rise over last year||Sales Growth||Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger|
|1||San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA||8.41%||1.17%||$750,000|
|2||San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA||8.26%||1.26%||$1,000,000|
|5||Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA||6.90%||6.03%||$605,000|
|6||Salt Lake City, UT||6.66%||4.67%||$301,000|
|8||San Diego County, CA||6.47%||4.89%||$530,000|
|10||Providence-RI Warwick, MA||6.31%||4.09%||$246,000|
|15||Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA||5.93%||2.67%||$190,000|
|16||Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI||5.77%||4.16%||$155,000|
|19||Greensboro-High Point, NC||5.50%||3.56%||$118,000|
|21||Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA||5.19%||5.35%||$565,000|
|25||Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV||5.06%||4.57%||$240,000|
|28||Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA||4.98%||6.88%||$276,000|
|32||Tampa-St. Petes, FL||4.84%||5.10%||$176,000|
|33||Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL||4.83%||3.14%||$160,000|
|36||Boise City, ID||4.79%||5.28%||$215,000|
|37||Colorado Springs, CO||4.77%||6.71%||$260,000|
|44||Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL||4.64%||4.89%||$146,000|
|47||New Haven-Milford, CT||4.39%||2.60%||$117,000|
|48||Kansas City, MO KS||4.36%||2.66%|
|50||Augusta-Richmond County, GA||4.28%||4.62%||$147,000|
|55||Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX||4.13%||5.09%||$182,000|
|56||Minneapolis-St Paul, MN||4.08%||3.56%||$235,000|
|57||Oklahoma City, OK||4.07%||4.18%||$155,000|
|59||New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa.||3.99%||6.48%||$425,000|
|60||Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.||3.98%||4.17%||$240,000|
|61||New Orleans-Metairie, LA||3.95%||5.94%||$190,000|
|63||El Paso, TX||3.93%||2.85%|
|64||Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA||3.92%||4.60%||$375,000|
|75||Austin-Round Rock, TX||3.50%||7.40%||$251,000|
|76||St. Louis, Mo||3.46%||4.35%||$155,000|
|80||Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY||3.36%||2.08%||$125,000|
|81||San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX||3.29%||6.22%||$170,000|
|86||Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL||3.10%||8.23%||$170,000|
|89||Little Rock, AK||2.97%||3.59%||$140,000|
|91||Des Moines, IA||2.92%||4.32%||$173,000|
|92||Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL||2.91%||5.41%||$200,000|
|93||Baton Rouge, LA||2.87%||5.53%||$166,000|
|95||Durham-Chapel Hill, NC||2.55%||8.95%||$220,000|
|Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com|
US Real Estate Market to 2021
Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for California, Florida, Illinois and most major US cities including Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, and Miami.
Forecast for Housing Market | Stock Market Futures | Should I Sell My House? | Will the Dow Jones Crash? | Is the S&P Going to Crash? | Is the NASDAQ Going to Crash? | Dallas Housing Market | Bay Area Housing Market | Florida Real Estate Market | New York Real Estate | Real Estate in Manhattan | Boston Real Estate | Chicago Real Estate | Illinois Real Estate | Colorado Real Estate | Toronto Real Estate | Vancouver Real Estate | Mortgage Rates Low | Mortgage Refinance Rates | California Real Estate | Will the Housing Market Crash? | Housing and Stocks | Investing Blog