Housing Market and Stock Market Forecasts

US Home Prices

US Home Prices

It’s no secret that home prices in the US have been on an upward tear. NAR forecasted a 5.7% increase during 2021, yet that conservative price estimate will likely be revised before long.

Screenshot courtesy of NAR
New home price timeline chart US. Screenshot courtesy of Statista.

Because the most recent home price reports have the rate at 17%. Yes, the most recent home price report from NAR shows record prices and a trend that is up, up and up. You can read more about home prices in March in the housing market report.

According to NAR, the median existing-home sales price in March rose by a record-breaking annual pace of 17.2% to a new median high price of $329,100. All 4 US housing regions saw double-digit increases in home prices.

The new average single-family house price rose 18.4% to $334,500, and the median price for condos rose 9.6% from 12 months ago to $289,000 last month.

Year over Year Home Price Change. Screenshot courtesy of NAR.
Year over Year Home Price Change. Screenshot courtesy of NAR.

Suburban Home Prices Growing Fastest

Even with the pandemic exodus, buyers are drawn more to the suburbs, than urban or rural areas. Is this a supply issue, or is it expected they will be called back to the office after the pandemic has ended?

Price comparison for home in urban, rural and suburban areas. Screenshot courtesy of Redfin.

See more details on Florida home prices, California home prices, New York home prices, Boston home prices and Chicago home prices. Check recent home price growth in Seattle, San Antonio, Salt Lake City, Atlanta, Tampa, San Diego, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Denver, Houston, Austin and Colorado Springs.

Home Price Growth in the Major US Metros

Chart data courtesy of NAR

 

Top Price Growth US Cities
City Median Listing Price Growth YoY Median Listing Price
Pittsburgh, Pa. N/A $272,000
Austin-Round Rock, Texas 40.60% $515,000
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. 23.60% $1,114,000
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 22.00% $512,000
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. 21.90% $457,000
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga. 20.70% $392,000
Oklahoma City, Okla. 19.70% $313,000
New Orleans-Metairie, La. 19.20% $345,000
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C. 18.60% $403,000
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif. 18.60% $592,000
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. 17.30% $852,000
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. 17.30% $327,000
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio 17.00% $234,000
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich 16.30% $285,000
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. 15.80% $352,000
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y. 15.70% $254,000
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. 15.30% $379,000
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas 14.10% $355,000
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. 13.60% $1,062,000
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. 13.50% $266,000
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. 13.30% $699,000
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. 13.30% $340,000
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. 13.20% $679,000
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash. 12.90% $540,000
Raleigh, N.C. 12.60% $412,000
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 12.00% $380,000
Jacksonville, Fla. 11.90% $349,000
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn. 11.20% $417,000
Richmond, Va. 11.00% $375,000
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. 9.60% $356,000
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 9.30% $629,000
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas 9.00% $324,000
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. 8.80% $310,000
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. 8.10% $368,000
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. 6.40% $277,000
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla. 6.20% $332,000
Rochester, N.Y. 5.80% $264,000
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. 5.30% $420,000
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. 5.10% $575,000
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. 4.80% $418,000
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. 3.30% $1,238,000
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md. 2.40% $336,000
Columbus, Ohio 1.70% $315,000
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. 1.40% $323,000
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va. 1.20% $506,000
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. 0.90% $287,000
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. 0.20% $366,000
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. -0.90% $272,000
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. -2.40% $332,000
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. -4.00% $240,000

In March, the median price in the Northeast was $364,800, up 21.4% from March 2020 while home prices in the Midwest rose 13.5% to $248,200, a 13.5% . In the US South region home prices jumped 15.6% to $283,900 while the median price in the West rose to $493,300, up 16.8% from March 2020.

Home Price Change by price level per state. Screenshot courtesy of NAR.

Buyers from California to Texas to Florida and New York are asking about a possible housing price crash, but the economy doesn’t look like it will suffer a setback anytime soon. Once the wishful thinking subsides and house construction picks up, we’ll see more confidence that house prices will continue high but more homebuyers will be successful.

As of April, buyers are entering into more contracts. That means more homeowners are selling and some of the demand is being filled. That’s progress albeit at a lofty price level.

Home sales contracts timeline history chart. Screenshot courtesy of NAR.

Many buyers will settle into an apartment and condo renter lifestyle and put away dreams of affording a house of their own. Over the next two years, more homeowners will sell their homes. They didn’t sell because of the pandemic health threat and because there was no where to move to.

But freeing up thousands of homes won’t quell demand, as immigrants and foreign students re-enter the US.

Florida Home Prices

As the pandemic recedes, many more are expected to sell their house.  This flood of homes could cause a downturn, or just flatten prices for the rest of 2021.  Refer to the US housing market report for stats on buyer sentiment and economic indictors.

Redfin reports top cities for Home Price Growth for March

Screenshot courtesy of Redfin.

Are we in the midst of a housing bubble?  It does look like, and we’re not at the peak of prices. Are a large number of homebuyers dreaming of a housing market crash?  Buyers are eager to buy into a seriously supercharged housing market. This euphoric exuberance of buyers is part of every news article now.

Realtor.com housing Market Forecast 2021

Housing Market Forecast courtesy of NAR and Realtor.com.

Last year, price growth before the pandemic stood around 8%. Logic tells us with a recovery plus trillions in stimulus money along with low construction levels, huge demand and low mortgage rates, that home price growth could exceed 20%.

Screenshot courtesy of Corelogic.

 

CNBC reports on fast rising home prices

Whether it’s resale homes or new homes, the economy is reawakening with fits and starts due to the pandemic.  We haven’t seen a synchronicity in this yet.  Both resale and new home inventory is low, especially product in the starter home price category. Sales of luxury priced homes however are booming.

Demand and Liquidity Should Spur Home Buying

Improving economy + low inventory + first time buyer growth + low mortgage rates has to spell home price increases.  Sales of resale homes were still down in May yet sales volume is increasing. Many sellers are hesitant to sell right now with nowhere to go.  Buyers will have to pay more to get them to part with their precious property.

Prices were flat or rising slightly, and this is still a depressed economy with shutdowns continuing in effect.

There will be second wave of Covid 19 and it will make its effects felt, like it did recently on the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ today. Yet buyers show an enthusiasm and demand for moving into roomier, more rural location.  Experts are underestimating this. See more on all housing markets including Florida and California on the US Housing report.

Fastest home price appreciation in Philadelphia, San Jose, and Nashville.

March 2021 Monthly Housing Market Trends

The March national median listing price rose 15.6% to $370,000 and large cities experienced average price gains of 12.1% compared to 12 months ago.

Case Shiller Price Forecasts

Last June, Corelogic predicted a home price drop in 2021.  That has not transpired and likely won’t anytime soon.

Home price forecast to 2021. Screenshot courtesy of Corelogic.

The big migration out of the cities continues to the burbs and smaller towns. This is likely to take some of the pressure off of apartments, condos and other high density housing this year.  Yet, single family and other lower density homes should still draw buyers.

Housing Price Hotness Index

NAR offers its rating of the hottest housing markets:

City Nielsen hotness Index hotness_rank hotness_rank this month supply score demand score median listing price
kingston, ny 234 47 190 100 49.8 $339,900
iowa city, ia 240 77 158 100 34.8 $281,900
peoria, il 130 57 157 100 49.5 $138,800
utica-rome, ny 162 44 149 100 57.9 $169,500
iowa city, ia 240 127 135 98 14.0 $276,000
lebanon, pa 299 17 131 79 94.0 $236,000
bloomington, in 244 46 129 79 70.6 $315,000
lincoln, ne 155 52 124 100 49.8 $313,480
rapid city, sd 265 54 123 70 72.6 $305,712
buffalo-cheektowaga-niagara falls, ny 47 50 120 71 74.6 $240,000
allentown-bethlehem-easton, pa-nj 66 11 120 91 86.3 $269,450
columbia, mo 237 112 118 89 29.1 $247,100
springfield, il 198 69 116 100 40.1 $153,900
springfield, mo 110 91 115 74 51.2 $230,000
binghamton, ny 180 79 114 65 67.6 $162,450
jacksonville, nc 239 101 111 63 60.2 $218,229
reading, pa 128 12 110 82 94.0 $249,950
columbia, mo 237 69 110 75 59.5 $249,900
detroit-warren-dearborn, mi 12 71 106 94 41.8 $274,900
columbia, mo 237 35 105 89 69.6 $269,900
hagerstown-martinsburg, md-wv 183 36 105 92 63.5 $271,900
iowa city, ia 240 179 105 82 5.0 $289,900
lancaster, pa 103 15 103 84 91.0 $319,450
decatur, al 266 44 102 72 73.2 $219,900
allentown-bethlehem-easton, pa-nj 66 52 102 64 82.9 $242,900
pottsville, pa 278 43 101 62 95.3 $108,500
hagerstown-martinsburg, md-wv 183 97 101 70 52.8 $245,000
myrtle beach-conway-north myrtle beach, sc-nc 111 188 97 17 66.6 $255,000
johnstown, pa 290 144 96 5 98.7 $74,900
charleston, wv 190 159 95 14 84.9 $148,750
ann arbor, mi 142 101 92 61 62.9 $456,990
chambersburg-waynesboro, pa 271 63 90 56 84.3 $241,200
state college, pa 270 39 90 72 86.0 $337,314
gainesville, ga 246 58 88 75 66.9 $364,900
lebanon, pa 299 38 88 69 94.6 $239,950
flint, mi 121 40 87 73 85.3 $208,900
sebastian-vero beach, fl 254 130 86 57 53.2 $346,850
warner robins, ga 229 82 86 91 40.5 $236,773
yuma, az 245 51 85 73 78.9 $255,000
redding, ca 227 131 85 70 39.8 $345,000
cedar rapids, ia 169 108 85 80 43.1 $229,621
harrisburg-carlisle, pa 91 30 85 66 93.6 $221,043
fort collins, co 147 68 84 79 60.5 $529,500
rocky mount, nc 274 75 84 46 85.3 $186,950
redding, ca 227 105 84 68 50.5 $402,000
la crosse-onalaska, wi-mn 293 41 83 68 86.3 $261,650
tupelo, ms 300 184 81 53 31.4 $278,500
st. cloud, mn 223 121 81 65 49.2 $287,200
st. cloud, mn 223 82 81 61 71.2 $269,900
muskegon, mi 243 12 81 87 90.3 $219,900
york-hanover, pa 117 13 79 86 89.3 $255,650
yuma, az 245 152 79 46 56.2 $232,757
bloomington, il 224 131 79 63 48.2 $152,229
boulder, co 152 112 78 47 71.6 $937,500
atlanta-sandy springs-roswell, ga 9 123 78 63 47.5 $352,088

 

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In the burbs and outlying towns, particularly in the midwest, we could see bidding wars.

As you can see, home prices in the major metros were doing well.  These are price growth numbers from the last 12 months including the last very difficult three months.

Home price growth last 12 months. Screenshot courtesy of Corelogic.

The Migration out of Cities

People are becoming more mobile as high home costs push them out of congested, high priced urban areas to more affordable regions. The new work at home mandate means workers don’t have to be chained to their employer’s physical office location.  And employers too may abandon urban sites for new locations in America’s heartland. They’re looking for the best cities to buy real estate.

Case Shiller Home Price History Chart

The housing experts need to take another look at this chart (see also the housing crash timeline chart). Even through the worst mini-recession ever, home prices keep rising. This upward direction is steepening as it did in 2005/2006.

Screenshot courtesy of FRED st louis fed.

Is this the best time to buy a home? Will buyers get a break later on in 2020 if they wait? Is this a buyers market? It just may be the right time as the forecast is a return of price growth after the current slowdown.

Can you assess a housing market without looking at:

  1. economic predictions,
  2. consumer confidence
  3. wages and employment
  4. GDP and trade deficits
  5. work at home trends
  6. fears of disease in high density regions, going forward
  7. stock market predictions?

Check the health and predictions for major cities: Los AngelesNew YorkSeattleChicagoPhiladelphiaSan DiegoMiamiBostonBay AreaSacramento, and Atlanta. See forecasts for California housing and Florida housing markets.

Reuters polled a number of housing market analysts at the end of a weak month in home sales, and this is still what they believe going forward to 2021:

A look back at how right they were about home price rises. With the cessation of the Corona Virus, the demand for homes will resume.

The most recent Reuters poll reflects a belief in rising home prices yet are less enthusiastic about price rises. And they’re divided.  19 of 34 analysts said U.S. housing market activity this year was likely to accelerate while the other 15 analysts believe it would slow.

The Jan. 12-Feb. 1 poll of nearly 40 housing analysts forecast the U.S. Case-Shiller house price index to rise 5.7% this year and 4.6% in 2022, the highest since polling began for both periods

Screenshot courtesy of Reuters

Freddie Mac Forecast

Freddie Mac points to higher mortgage rates until they throttle the economy in 2020. If the economic forecast is dire, then interest rates would fall. Higher rates would serve to raise home prices, if the economy hangs in there.

Mortgage Rates. Screenshot courtesy of Freddie Mac.

Forisk forecasts solid levels of home construction peaking in 2023 and sustained to 2027, although tailing due to satiated demand and rising interest rates.

And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.”  That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.

Best Cities to Invest?

Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities to buy property.

For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?

Top Home Price Growth Trends

Price growth varies each quarter. These are the latest prices from Kiplinger. California cities come in as the least affordable in the nation. New York, Washington DC, Honolulu, and Seattle are right up there.

Rank City (updated Jan 2019) Price Rise over last year Sales Growth Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 8.41% 1.17% $750,000
2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 8.26% 1.26% $1,000,000
3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 7.36% 3.41% $417,000
4 Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA 7.18% 4.92% $305,000
5 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 6.90% 6.03% $605,000
6 Salt Lake City, UT 6.66% 4.67% $301,000
7 Portland-OR-Vancouver-WA 6.55% 5.02% $305,000
8 San Diego County, CA 6.47% 4.89% $530,000
9 Denver CO 6.41% 3.96% $360,000
10 Providence-RI Warwick, MA 6.31% 4.09% $246,000
11 Stockton-Lodi, CA 6.12% 4.01% $312,000
12 Tucson, AZ 6.10% 5.47% $179,000
13 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA 6.09% 6.32% $398,000
14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 5.94% 7.24% $240,000
15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5.93% 2.67% $190,000
16 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 5.77% 4.16% $155,000
17 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL. 5.69% 6.10% $205,000
18 Philadelphia, PA 5.54% 3.08% $190,000
19 Greensboro-High Point, NC 5.50% 3.56% $118,000
20 Bakersfield, CA 5.26% 4.49% $199,000
21 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 5.19% 5.35% $565,000
22 Richmond, VA 5.18% 2.57% $200,000
23 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 5.17% 6.22% $145,000
24 Provo-Orem, UT 5.16% 5.84% $250,500
25 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 5.06% 4.57% $240,000
26 Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 5.03% 3.61% $170,000
27 Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 5.00% 5.37% $192,000
28 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.98% 6.88% $276,000
29 Tulsa, OK 4.90% 4.01% $150,000
30 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 4.87% 3.11% $162,500
31 Nashville, TN 4.86% 4.41% $234,000
32 Tampa-St. Petes, FL 4.84% 5.10% $176,000
33 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 4.83% 3.14% $160,000
34 Spokane, WA 4.81% 3.95%
35 Jacksonville, FL 4.79% 7.03% $170,000
36 Boise City, ID 4.79% 5.28% $215,000
37 Colorado Springs, CO 4.77% 6.71% $260,000
38 Akron, OH 4.76% 1.90% $125,000
39 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH 4.75% 1.89% $75,000
40 Springfield, MA 4.74% 5.13% $195,000
41 Toledo, OH 4.72% 2.07% $106,000
42 Hartford, CT 4.68% 0.42% $201,000
43 Milwaukee, WI 4.65% 4.53% $192,000
44 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 4.64% 4.89% $146,000
45 Honolulu, HA 4.55% 3.76% $530,000
46 Virginia Beach-Norfolk,NC 4.44% 3.76% $215,000
47 New Haven-Milford, CT 4.39% 2.60% $117,000
48 Kansas City, MO KS 4.36% 2.66%
49 Charlotte, NC 4.32% 6.28% $138,000
50 Augusta-Richmond County, GA 4.28% 4.62% $147,000
51 Dayton, OH 4.25% 2.18% $115,000
52 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 4.23% 4.29% $131,000
53 Raleigh, NC 4.16% 7.55% $238,000
54 Pittsburgh, PA 4.13% 6.08% $125,000
55 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4.13% 5.09% $182,000
56 Minneapolis-St Paul, MN 4.08% 3.56% $235,000
57 Oklahoma City, OK 4.07% 4.18% $155,000
58 Houston, TX 4.01% 6.08% $170,000
59 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa. 3.99% 6.48% $425,000
60 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. 3.98% 4.17% $240,000
61 New Orleans-Metairie, LA 3.95% 5.94% $190,000
62 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 3.94% 4.02% $211,000
63 El Paso, TX 3.93% 2.85%
64 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA 3.92% 4.60% $375,000
65 Wichita, KS 3.89% 2.51%
66 Memphis, TN 3.80% 4.22% $137,700
67 Columbus, OH 3.78% 5.70% $170,000
68 Madison, WI. 3.75% 5.40% $245,000
69 Indianapolis, IN 3.72% 5.03% $114,450
70 Omaha, NB 3.70% 4.64% $175,000
71 Fresno, CA 3.65% 5.82% $233,000
72 Albuquerque, NM 3.62% 4.13% $129,000
73 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 3.57% 5.11% $118,000
74 Cleveland, OH 3.56% 4.69% $135,000
75 Austin-Round Rock, TX 3.50% 7.40% $251,000
76 St. Louis, Mo 3.46% 4.35% $155,000
77 Worcester, MA 3.45% 4.97% $225,000
78 Syracuse, NY 3.41% 2.55% $106,000
79 Columbia, SC 3.39% 3.56% $133,000
80 Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY 3.36% 2.08% $125,000
81 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3.29% 6.22% $170,000
82 Charleston, SC 3.27% 6.09% $238,000
83 Louisville, KY 3.24% 4.69% $165,000
84 Cincinnati, OH 3.18% 6.38% $150,000
85 Knoxville, TN 3.11% 6.27% $141,000
86 Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL 3.10% 8.23% $170,000
87 Rochester, NY 3.09% 6.27% $127,000
88 Allentown, PA 3.07% 3.00% $175,000
89 Little Rock, AK 2.97% 3.59% $140,000
90 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 2.97% 2.88% $238,000
91 Des Moines, IA 2.92% 4.32% $173,000
92 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 2.91% 5.41% $200,000
93 Baton Rouge, LA 2.87% 5.53% $166,000
94 Winston-Salem, NC 2.66% 5.08% $137,000
95 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 2.55% 8.95% $220,000
96 Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA 2.40% 6.62% $80,000
97 Jackson, MI 1.98% 9.44%
98 Chicago, IL 1.95% 2.27% $218,000
99 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 1.92% 2.56% $365,000
100 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 1.78% 3.51% $172,000
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com

US Real Estate Market to 2021

Please see the major metro market reports for 2021 and beyond including Denver, DallasAtlanta, Chicago, San Francisco, Houston, Tampa, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle, and Philadelphia.

Is 2020 the right year to buy rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2020 including investing in real estate?

Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for California, Florida, Illinois and most major US cities including  Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, and Miami.

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