US Economy Outlook 2021
Reporting on the economy during the worst pandemic the US has experienced in 100 years is bound to be depressing. We’re not out of it yet either.
But today’s positive jobs report is an indication that the work shutdown is coming to an end and the US economy is getting back to its regular routine. If the health authorities are stern and educational with the public, a second wave could be avoided.
If the second wave happens, it might be a short two week event, of total shutdown, that won’t obliterate the economy. After all, the US has now been there done that.
The GDP numbers from March, April and May are behind us so why report them? We could contrast the upcoming 3 month and 6 month numbers to the depth of the recession. That would drive you know who crazy because the reverse numbers are whoppers. Try 1000% style growth numbers on the incline this summer.
The GDP forecast might be a lot like last fall’s numbers, not great but looking okay considering what we’ve witnessed in the spring. The much feared Q2 is just about over, and with it will go the pessimism.
China is in the Rear View Mirror,
And it’s the US China trade war that promises to create this coming boom in 2021 so special. President Trump has had a tough time stemming the imports, while dealing with the disease outbreak. But now he has reasons to raise the tariffs to the roof and stop the trade deficit that’s been killing the US economy.
When China carelessly launched the Covid 19 export, it ruined its future internationally. Add that to its IP theft, electronic spying, and unwillingness to meet trade agreements or treaties with Hong Kong, and there are few who will support China now. The China economic forecast for 2021 is recessionary.
Even the Democrats have moved onto other gambits (black voters protests). They’re still trying to talk down the US economy but this 2nd half 2020 economic wave is a tsunami and protests won’t stop it. The vision of a great economy after the vaccine is delivered in 2021 is what drives a lot of hope for the future.
The manufacturing jobs numbers were excellent which will of course make the 2021 stock forecast much brighter. As the Trading Economics researchers have it, we’re on the rise again.
Right now, the stock market is telling us our economic future is very bright. It’s waiting for the rest of us to catch up. and 2021 will see consumers and workers finally catch back up. This sudden recession was bad, and it will stick around for a couple of months, but the changes coming out of it, are very positive and will drive US growth.
Media Trying to Enforce Negative Outlook
Only negative commentators and stories are being published by the media with their sour outlooks. They continue to push China as their political and economic ideal, even though China’s economic numbers are in crisis.
The media’s relentless talking down of the economy for 4 years now shows low credibility. There are virtually no reports on the 2021 forecast, even though post recession periods are always followed by a rapid incline.
In reality, with businesses reopening and some stimulus funding, we can accelerate well out of this vicious recession. The Corona Virus hit us medically, financially and psychologically. A sudden vicious hit to the economy. Investigators are trying to get access to the source in China, but the communists have covered it up. They won’t find much now, but the anger is resulting in more self-reliance in countries and a slow rejection of China.
This counter China trend will be very good for the US economy and for Canada and other nations.
GDP Forecasts to 2024
GDP is taking a wild hit, but the coming months will see latent demand supporting businesses restarting. The China trade friction, repatriation of business back to the US, a declining trade imbalance, higher tariffs on China exports, and a return to the optimism Americans were feeling the last 4 years will take hold.
Previous forecasts may actually still be accurate as the China virus period passes into history. The race for a Corona Virus will yield a vaccine or we’ll have better ways to control it. Americans will need to straighten up and be more conscious of their lives. Job repatriation and this will bring more confidence for the economy beginning in 2021.
Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Rising
Consumers are spending again and consumer confidence index is rising fast. People are coming out of their funk and negativity. The Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ, and Russel Index are rising fast, although a bumpy ascent.
If we look more at macroeconomic influences, we know that stimulus, lower interest rates, and pro US legislation has to spell good news for the economic forecast.
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This post discusses the main economic factors to watch – namely China’s manufacturing production (to fill current demand), international trade declines, rising USD value, consumer spending trends, employment, and growth in US productivity.
5 Year Forecast: Will the Momentum End?
US banks are strong, and consumer sentiment is rising. And interest rates could go lower, giving home buyers a big break and helping businesses handle financial challenges better. And as imports of foreign goods wane, consumers will be buying more US produced goods. Even products that were sitting, unsellable on the shelves might finally be sold. This correction could be a good thing for the US.
Democrat experts aren’t paying attention to any positive effects of the global economic pullback. They’re hoping to discredit the Trump republicans any which way. Yet, the US will likely get through the Corona pandemic should it take several more months. So far, cases in the US of the virus have been very limited. This could all blow over.
Latest US Economic Stats
Let’s take a look at some key economic stats and charts that include employment, income, savings, GDP, consumer spending, business spending, manufacturing & services, housing, mortgages, and the balance of trade. The crux of the economy is consumer spending bolstered by strong employment and rising investment in US business. GDP is down but with the level of wealth in the US, it would take something monumental to bring this economy to its knees.
Real GDP has been flat for the last 3 quarters primarily due to political blockades, and the lengthy transition of production from China back to the US. The US dollar which of course, is in very high demand is making it tougher for US companies to get re-established and competitive. Quantitative easing might take care of the issue of the US dollar being everyone’s flight to safety.
US corporations are sitting on mountains of cash, and aren’t investing, spending or sharing.
us disposable income and spending
Consumer disposable income is climbing fast which could bolster the housing market forecast for 2020.
The struggle for US manufacturers to ramp up in the face of tough international competition and the China supply chain. This chart shows more needs to be done to strengthen US capabilities in the pivotal manufacturing sector. As manufacturing goes, so does design, marketing, services, and investor dollars. This is the key battle ground for future economic success.
Continue to Part 2 of the Economic Forecast
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* the above post includes opinions of the author and do not connote recommendations of any kind regarding stocks to invest in. The material is provided as general information only. For all your stock investment decisions please refer to your financial investment advisor.
Housing Market Forecast – copyright Gord Collins
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