Did you know auto insurance premiums rose by 7% last year, far above the usual 3 to 4%. When drivers don’t shop around for better insurance quotes, or mortgage rates, or a home, companies take advantage.
Even with no claims, they draw funds form your account for years and decades on end. Any you never ask them for anything. You’ll be happier if you get online quotes. It’s so easy and hassle free.
It’s all about lower rates and getting lower auto insurance quotes. Yet insurance companies won’t just offer them. You have to search for a better car insurance quote. Now that you’re hear, it’s time to begin your search.
“Shop Around for a Lower Car Insurance Quote“
Compare Car Insurance Rates
If you’re not comparing auto insurance rates, you’re giving away money. In fact, car insurance shopping is the only way to can substantially lower your premiums and get better converage. This post will convince you and give you some new options.
You get lower auto insurance by comparing quotes from different vehicle insurance companies. There are a lot of them out there. There’s big and small insurance companies and independent brokers looking for your business.
Rising auto insurance isn’t a local issue. Car insurance rates are rising everywhere but it appears consumers are apathetic about it. If you look at the price charts below you’ll see how much people expend for auto insurance.
Self-driving cars could raise auto insurance rates for you and I, since those autonomous car companies would negotiate their own low rate coverage. They’ll save plenty, but you will have to negotiate your own insurance rate.
The average auto insurance premium in Ontario, Canada is $1,458, which is almost 55% higher than the average of all other Canadian jurisdictions — from a Globe & Mail report.
It’s 2017 and time to take massive action to save money. Have you investigated UBI or usage based auto insurance? Check out the auto insurance rate quotes for your city or state below.
Get the best auto insurance quotes in Toronto, Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, Phoenix, Denver, Boston, New York and other cities where consumers are fed up. We’re all paying too much to insure our cars, SUVs and trucks. It’s hard earned dollars ($10,000) that you’re giving away but now that can change. Has your loyalty to one insurance company done much for you?
Look back at the last 20 years of auto insurance coverage you purchased (e.g., 20 x 12 x $150 = $36,150). Could you use that money right now?
It’s a Great Time to Switch Auto Insurance Companies
Yes, switching insurance companies is a wise financial choice. There are videos, charts, infographics and quote comparisons below that will open your eyes. When it comes to finding the lowest insurance rates, and a better policy, this might be a good starting point. It’s best to do lots of searching and get a wide variety of quotes from insurers. Just through persistence alone, you’ll get the best rates. You could save $10,000 over 6 years or as much as $1800 in one year.
Do you Need Collector or Luxury Car Insurance?
Here’s an auto insurance niche where you can get more price and appropriate quotes for your Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Ferrari, Lamborhghini, Bentley, Rolls Royce, or Maserati.
I’m sure you’ll find the auto insurance quote comparisons below an eye opener.
According to one source, the average price of auto insurance across the US is $1100 to $1200 per year — that leaves lots of room for you to start saving!
Virginia has become the 19th state to ban consumer price gouging – Consumeraffairs.com – fair warning that you are probably getting taken.
Not all of the big name companies such as Allstate, Progressive, Geico, Nationwide, State Farm, Mercury, StateFarm, and others offer great rates or the coverage you actually need. I know from my own searches that I tend not to be thorough enough. I get restless and frustrated and settle for a higher auto insurance quote than I should. I want to help you optimize your quest for the lowest auto policy.
Sharing Really is Caring
Share this post on Facebook with younger drivers who need some relief from $4000 to $8000 policies.
My Car Insurance Quote
I conducted a search directly on the insurer’s websites of Geico, Progressive, Statefarm, Liberty Mutual, Mercury, Allstate, AAA and Farmers. In the chart below, you can see the quote for a 40 year old male living in Santa Ana, California, driving a 2010 Hyudai Santa Fe 4 dr sedan to work 30 miles away daily, and having one non bodily injury accident (hit a car). We need an example to analyze an auto insurance quote, so let’s take a quick look at this one.
Statefarm’s auto quote was about $1300 less per year than Liberty Mutual’s. Over 6 years, that translates to $7800 in savings if I chose Statefarm. Further below, I sought quotes via insurance hotline and the variation was bigger. With your own search, you may find one local insurance company who may be willing to insure you at much less.
Is a 40 year old driver with one accident statistically that risky? Obviously Liberty Mutual, Statefarm, and AAA believe there is huge risk. Each company processes the statistics differently, and they’re entitled to. However, are they being reasonable about it. Is the auto quote abnormally high?
Some of these companies make you fill out endless questions, some of which you have to wonder are even legal. I liked Progressive’s online auto insurance quote process the best. It was quick and the least painful. They seem to respect your time the most. Their quote was a little higher than Allstate and Statefarm, but I suspect Progressive has a better corporate culture — a signal of how they’ll treat you after becoming their customer.
Auto Insurance Tips from Everquote.com
Auto Insurance Tips on how to Get Cheaper Car and Truck Insurance
Canadian Auto Insurance Buyers are Getting Ripped Off
Car Insurance Quote In Canada
Here’s another example auto insurance quote for a 2014 Hyundai Santa Fe, 4 door, for a 48 year old male with one ticket. See the huge difference in quotes from individual brokerages? That’s right, in this case there are two Aviva brokerages competing. The lowest quote was from Travelers insurance. It equates to $1700 savings per year and more than $10,000 over 6 years. That’s a significant amount.
Auto Insurance Rates by US State
Just in case you’re curious, here is Insure.com’s rankings of States for car insurance policies for one year.
3. Dodge Grand Caravan – annual car insurance premium $1,174.
4. Jeep Wrangler Sport – annual car insurance premium $1,181.
5. Jeep Compass Sport 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,190
6. Ford Escape S 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,194.
7. Buick Encore Sport Tour 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,200.
8. Jeep Cherokee Base 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,203.
9. Nissan Frontier S King Cab – annual car insurance premium $1,204
Here’s something to think about to motivate you: a savings of almost $1000. How long does it take you to earn $1000 x the next 4 years = $4000. Because, insurance buyers tend to be loyal (or just lazy) and stick with the insurance company that’s sticking it to them. If that’s you, then, spend a whole afternoon or evening searching for a lower auto insurance quote. Save your money.
Sharing is Good for Your Social Health, and good for others bank accounts. Help them save by sharing this post! Who couldn’t use all that money?
A survey by carinsurance.com (they do these studies for PR and for wider exposure in social media and Google) so take it with a grain of salt. Carinsurance.com stated that in California, the average annual premium across the six top carriers was $1,428 (significantly higher than national average of $1,277). The cheapest car insurance averaged an amazing 33% less, at $960.
The Type of Car you Drive is a Key Factor
You may not realize that the insurance companies offer cheaper insurance for a certain type or brand of vehicle. Jeeps for instance have very cheap rates. Why? Who knows? They’re not divulging anything that will cause them to lose profit. Obviously, your age, sex, and recent driving record will determine if you can get those best rates. Are new electric cars like the Tesla Model 3, Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf the way to go?
I welcome all inquiries from businesses inLos Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita, Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Colorado Springs, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.
The success of online shopping via Amazon tells us consumers enjoy the experience of shopping around. No sore feet, parking hassles, or traffic stress, not gasoline prices, better prices, and infinite selection makes shopping online compelling.
Shopping for a cheaper mortgage should be that way too.
Instead of accepting your own bank’s tired high interest offering, you’ll enjoy saving thousands by shopping online for a lower mortgage rate.
Surprising and proven savings of 5 to 22 points translates to an average savings of $2,914
Mortgage Rates are Rising
Yes, they will grow by the week, but that doesn’t mean you can’t break free of the rising costs, by switching mortgage companies and locking in at a guaranteed rate that will save you thousands.
Type of Mortgage
Weekly Rate of Change
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
20-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
10-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
7/1 ARM Mortgage
Fixed rate for 7 years, then raised thereafter
5/1 ARM Mortgage
Fixed rate for 5 years, then raised thereafter
3/1 ARM Mortgage
Fixed rate for 3 years, then raised thereafter
Better terms, lower monthly payments and lower fixed fees will make this process an even more palatable one for you.
As you’ll find out below, when homeowners search for a better rate, they generally get a lower mortgage rate quote of an astonishing 5 to 22 points! And that translates to an average savings of $2,914 if the borrower receives 5 mortgage rate quotes. On a 30 year 5% mortgage rate on a $500,000 home loan, the savings are even bigger. By Shopping around yu ensure you don’t get sold a product you don’t really need.
Along with lower rates, shopping for mortgages with lower broker or financing fees gives you more than enough justification for shopping around online. You’re on your computer or mobile phone! Fight back against the banks high rates by shopping right now.
You can ask about terms, rates benefits, and anything you don’t understand with those offering up a mortgage quote. Shopping online takes a lot of the friction, uncertainty, and effort out of getting the best mortgage possible.
Fixed Rates, HELOCs, Savings, and Debt Refinance
This summer, everyone’s thinking mortgage quotes because rates are rising. This rise will affect your mortgage approval, home refinancing rates, Heloc application, debt refinancing, and much more.
The banks are becoming more rejecting so it’s time to widen your search using all channels, including mortgage brokers. The Freddie Mac survey shows us the value is there. And you don’t want to wait for nasty surprises that could see you lose your home.
“Won’t my bank give me the lowest rate possible?” Why would they give you a rock bottom rate if you’re going to renew without asking? They’d be cutting their own big profits.
Questions: Does shopping around actually create a significant difference?
In these graphics courtesy of Freddie Mac’s recent mortgage shopping report, buyers saved at least 10 points on average (orange and green dotted lines) and some as much as 22 points. The more questioning and persistent you are, the further the savings you generate.
Rising Mortgage Rates in the US
In the US, rising mortgage rates are a concern. Mortgage applications dropped for a 4th straight time since March and that’s weighing down the US housing market.
Tighter lending, bank reluctance, and higher rates will mean refinancing your mortgage will cost hundreds to thousands more in 2019 and 2020. How many days does it take you to earn that money?
Cost of living is about to rise. With inflation on the upswing, flat home prices, and gasoline and oil prices being forecast to rocket, the next year could bring pain and stress for many homeowners who need to refinance.
The big banks have owned the mortgage market since 2008, but Freddie Mac is supporting non-banks who are providing mortgage related financing to more consumers. Quicken Loans, Freedom Mortgage, LoanDepot, and Caliber Home Loans are just a few of the other new online mortgage loan providers competing for your business now. There are many more in addition to brokers and banks.
Mortgage Rate Quote Tips:
⦁ research rates and know what is actually a good mortgage rate before you accept
⦁ get quotes from at least 5 different mortgage brokers or online providers
⦁ ask about special quotes for certain occupations
⦁ do maximize your down payment amount
⦁ lock in at fixed rates for at least 10 years
⦁ ask how much in interest you’ll be paying for the life of the home loan
⦁ ask for special benefits such as payment holidays
⦁ renegotiate in spring when more lenders are cutting rates to win business
Canadians are Facing Record Mortgage Refinancing Levels
In Canada, around 47% of all existing mortgages will need to be refinanced this year, according to CIBC estimates. And that’s up from the 25 to 35% range in a normal year. Canadians will be in a rush to capture better financing and they’ll likely be switching mortgage lenders to get it. Dominion Lending for instance is seeing big growth but they’re also rejecting more mortgage applications.
Rising interest rates and tighter lending regulations in Canada combine with very high consumer debt levels, making it tougher for Canadians to qualify for and get mortgage refinancing they can afford.
This could make for more volatility in the Toronto housing market and Vancouver housing markets. For the first time in a long while, borrowers are nervous and concerned about refinancing rates they need for home loans, HELOCs, and to repay off debts. These higher financing rates are expected to set off a cascade of housing and financial issues across Canada.
The Fed is expecting to raise interest rates slightly and the housing market isn’t expected to cool much.
Any rise in rates right now however creates a significantly higher monthly payment. Check the mortgage rate calculator to see how much your monthly payments will rise when rates go up a further 1%.
Mortgage Rate History – St Louis Fed
If we look at this graphic below, we can see how far up mortgage rates could rise again. The small increases in mortgage rates right now seem cheap in comparison with the early 1980’s. However today’s home prices are significantly higher and wages are lower in comparison.
Since early January, mortgage rates have been rising fast. With inflation creeping upward, wages rising and housing construction growing stronger, more American will be buying real estate.
The Secondary Mortgage Market and Brokers
You shouldn’t be accepting your banks offer without looking at what the secondary financing market can offer. A savings of a couple of points on a 5 year fixed term or a 30 year fixed rate loan is nothing to sneeze at.
Checking a mortgage broker in your city is just plain wise and there are many advertising online. You’ll have access to better mortgage benefits and find a lower mortgage rate.
It’s All About Finding a Lowest Mortgage Rate
If money is a commodity and there’s plenty of mortgage lenders, then it’s all about finding the lowest mortgage rate quote. Of course, those rates won’t just jump out at you. You’re going to have to do some searching for a better quote online.
According to Freddie Mac, borrowers received rate quotes ranging from 4.2% to 4.8%. That’s way a patient search process is vital for you to get the best deal.
Good Luck with Your low rate mortgage search. Bookmark this page because it will be updated with more news on mortgage rate savings!
How Much Could You Save By Shaving 5 to 22 points off Your Mortgage?
Shopping for a Lower Mortgage Rate might be a fun way to save money. Shaving 5 to 22 points off combined with better terms leaves you more to spend in your happy place.
Homes are expensive and you need to save money anyway you can. This is where you start, by searching and shopping for the lowest mortgages rates available.
Whether it’s our job, auto insurance, current home, and our lot in life, there are those who believe staying put is okay. However, staying with your current provider could be costing your tens of thousands.
In fact, corporate profits rely on you staying put and not comparing mortgage rates or auto insurance rates.
The mortgage rate quote, auto insurance quote, refinancing rate etc. you currently receive is likely not all that competitive. It’s a good time to refinance or shop around for an entirely new mortgage solution. Get the system working for you.
Mortgage Rates USA
Major USA Bank Mortgage Rates
Lower Mortgage Rates across USA You can Find Below
Mortgage Rates Canada
Major Canadian Bank Mortgage Rates
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Canada You can Find Below
Do it for Your Spouse and Family: Savings Are Smart
And sure, you’re not always looking for rock bottom rates, but you likely are paying premium rates for low quality mortgage loans.
Make Finding lower mortgage rates a priority right now, and you’ll save a lot of money. Consider how much savings translates to a 5, 10, or 20 year mortgage and it’s tens of thousands of dollars.
Saving Money on Your Mortgage – Is Money in Your Bank Account
That money is yours. You worked hard for it. Count how many hours and days you had to toil in your job to earn that money. See what I mean? People are penny smart and dollar stupid. It’s part of our culture.
Financially wise people on the other don’t get duped when they shop for a mortgage or their auto insurance. It’s your money, get full value for it. You can’t earn as much as you can save, unless you’re Donald Trump. Oh wait a minute, the President has filed for bankruptcy many times.
You’d better shop around. According to a report from Consumer Finance.gov, 77% of consumers apply to only one lender when seeking a mortgage.
You can Save a lot of Money just by Shopping for a Better Mortgage Rate
There are some particularly important tactics you can use to lower your mortgage payments. Here’s 10 good ones:
search on Google – the top ranking websites are there because people like them
get quotes directly from bank websites – compare them
clean up your credit score – make extra big payments for many months to show your intent to pay down your debt. Bank credit score rating expectations are ludicrous, created only to justify charging high mortgage rates
don’t leave your current job until you’ve landed that long term mortgage successfully
check out the mortgage rate quote tools below
use a mortgage rate calculator and crunch some numbers yourself – at least it’ll be harder for lenders to pull the wool over your eyes
talk to your current provider and ask for a much lower rate – tell them you’re unhappy and intend to get a cheaper mortgage
take a shorter term home loan, let’s say 3 to 5 years – it’s risky however it can you a cheaper rate
take the bank’s teaser rate on a short term then shop for a better one when that expires
check out a mortgage broker, many of whom advertise online. They’re eager to compete and they’ll do more to offer that lower rate and better terms
All you need to do is search for a lower mortgage rate. The offers are plastered all over Facebook, Google, Bing, news websites and even a blog like this one. How easy can it get!
Is the Forecast for Higher Mortgage Rates?
Some are warning about inflation and fast rising interest rates are about to go out of control starting in 2018. Rather than jump at the first fixed rate mortgage offer, shop around.
This forecast shows mortgage rates might go down so you an bargain effectively with this outlook.
Mortgage Rate History and Forecast 2018
Mortgage rates are expected to rise, and mortgage shoppers are looking for the lowest rate 30 year mortgages. That’s smart considering how low rates are currently. The sooner you find a good 30 year fixed rate mortgage the better.
This chart from FreddieMac shows 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates since 2013.
1 Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate is Climbing
Mortgage Loan Options – Which the Best Mortgages?
While the lowest mortgage interest rate is one of the primary criteria home buyers take into account, there are other financial and real life issues you need to prepare for. Ensure you check out these popular and vital mortgage loan benefits.
fixed or variable rates
long term loans
skip a payment
Free Mortgage Calculator
Mortgage rates from Lending Tree. Lending Tree’s mortage rate inquiry process is a bit nasty. I include it just to let you know that not all online mortgage lenders are high quality and they may not see inquirers as human beings.. They will ask endless irrelevant (to you) questions that don’t relate to a simple mortgage rate request (just give us the rate) and some of them you may not like at all.
It might be tough to sell your home in its current condition so you’ll need to research with the help of your real estate agent, which types of home improvements make the best sense. If you’re considering selling your house, congratulations, it is a good time to sell. The market is high and it’s still rising which means home buyers see value in purchasing your home. It should sell quick whether you’re in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Boston, Miami, Vancouver, Toronto or New York.
May 18, 2018. Your Epic report and forecast of the 2018/2019 US housing market offers facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.
NAR reports that existing home sales grew in April, 1.1% which is well up from the 1.2% loss 12 months ago. See the NAR charts below for others stats and which are the hottest markets for April.
Spring Market is Starting Strong
It’s an unusual spring market given the growing purchasing power of home buyers in low to mid market prices. That makes it a great market for those looking to sell their current home to trade up to a better one.
Resale home transactions rose 1.1% in March showing clealy that buyers are hungry to buy. However, listings have declined 7.2% and prices have risen 5.8% versus last March.
It’s a sellers market and it will be for some time. If you’re hunting for houses for sale, you’d better have an advanced search strategy.
The dwindling numbers of homes for sale should push prices upward in Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Miami, Seattle, New York, and Houston . It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.
Please feel free to use this material on Linkedin and Facebook. It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who face a big decision about buying a home or condo in 2018 as home prices and mortgage rates rise.
NAR’s March Update
Homes sales have risen for 2 months straight, however they’re down 1.1% from same time last year. Although prices haven’t hit the 2007 records, they are too high for most to afford even though wages have grown. Home prices are now running at double the average wage increase.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $250,400, up 5.8 percent from March 2017 ($236,600). March’s price increase marks the 73rd straight month of year-over-year gains — from NAR
Boston, New York, New Jersey
March existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 680,000, but are still 9.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $270,600, which is 3.3 percent above March 2017 – from NAR update.
Housing inventory is the most influential and persistent factor affecting home prices. Despite this, the media and some politicians blame speculation, building costs, interest and mortgage rates, cost of living, and mortgage rules. When the economy is good people want homes. Construction is strong but can’t keep up. Simple rule of supply vs demand is driving home prices.
Looking for housing market predictions? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.
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Should you Buy or Rent?
We all want to own a home, but does it make more sense to rent? If you can’t afford a home in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Dallas, renting may be the only option. Here’s a few blog posts I’ve written on the US rental housing market, apartment prices, and on buying vs renting.
What’s Driving the California Housing Market?
Strong demand from an eager demographic and economy is clashing with local resident NIMBYism to create a volatile market. See the California housing report.
This completely updated EPIC United States Housing Report has market updates and predictions for 2018 to 2020, and other data to 2026.
NAR’s VP of research Paul Bishop, predicts sales will be flat for 2018.
One of the biggest challenges is going to be in certain high-cost parts of the country where they have high home prices, relatively high property taxes or high state income taxes, then that’s ultimately going to make the cost of owning a home more expensive.
In addition, renters may lose the incentive to buy a home in high-cost areas if they can’t use the mortgage interest deduction or the ability to deduct some of those other housing-related costs from their taxes. It’s focused mostly on the higher cost areas. It’s certainly something that everyone will be monitoring and how the housing market reacts in 2018 and 2019 — from a news release on DSnews.com.
In this post, you’ll discover the hottest city markets, zip codes, get economic, employment, finance, and housing projections to understand the key fundamentals driving home buying, rental investment, home construction, and the real estate markets in 2018/2019 to 2026. Read thoroughly if you’re considering buying a house this year.
What’s the story for summer of 2018? It has to be Texas and Michigan, however the overall picture is of a very good spring and summer for the housing market nationwide and going forward to 2026. Population growth in San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Phoenix continues strong.
The Complete Picture for 2018
Ready to choose your realtor and buy a house or condo this year? The outlook is really rosy! And how about investing in a rental income property for sustained passive income? This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.
Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing marketare positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.
Are you considering buying homes for sale as an income investment? With Apartment rent prices holding strong in 2018, it’s a solid investment strategy.
This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).
Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.
Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.
NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
Realtor.com® 2018 Forecast
Home price appreciation
Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end
Existing home sales
2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing
3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses
New home sales
Growth of 7%
Home ownership rate
Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally
Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the jobs picture, wage growth, investment, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.
The resistance to housing development is slowing. Conservatives are giving up amidst intense pressure by those facing outrageous housing shortages and skyrocketing rental prices.
Housing Shortages Won’t Ease
Although January’s sales were disappointing, it’s due to the severe shortage of housing. Demand is there and you’ll be competing against a hoard of buyers in 2018. Corelogic expects 2018’s home prices will grow 4.3% by next December. NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices this year. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.
The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’s tumbled. Listings fell dramatically in cental California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.
Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.
The tax cuts should help although the Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden stock market volatility. Although some disincentives are present for home buying in certain price ranges, that will help keep the market balanced for 2018.
Sharing is Good! Share the Insight with others on FB and Linkedin
A brief overview of January 2018 from NAR.
Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party
Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.
Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers, all of whom are looking for houses for sale.
New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018
New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.
The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.
The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.
Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies
Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise. With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale. This fall, new home sales have been brisk as reported by the Commerce Department.
Mortgage Rates on the Rise
15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.
Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac. The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.
The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy. Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.
Home Sales Expect to Rise Nationally
Freddie Mac Predicts strong sales driven by moderating prices nationally.
And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.
Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer
According to NAR’s latest report, San Francisco is again the hottest city, taking back the number one spot from San Jose. The hottest small city is Vallejo California, enjoying a spillover from the Bay Area market. Investors and buyers will be hard pressed to find buying opportunities are.
Silicon Valley prices will pressure businesses to look to cheaper cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas, Houston, Austin, etc in 2018/2019.
Hottest Real Estate Markets in April 2018
Where are the hottest cities in the US? They’re all over this month and only 3 from California made the new top 20 list.
Hottest Cities for Investment Value
This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.
Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.
Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.
20 Hottest Housing Markets, January 2018 (Realtor.com)
Current Home Prices
San Francisco, CA
San Jose, CA
Colorado Springs, CO
San Diego, CA
Santa Rosa, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Boise City, ID
Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For property investors or buyers with minimal cash, the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modesto, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale. As usual, California and Texas lead the way, however Michigan is looking good with the President’s intention to bring the auto industry and related jobs back to the US.
In some markets such as California, home prices have leveled off a little from their relentless climb. There is a slight risk of a burst housing bubble. Outside of major city markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.
Here Panelists from the Urban Land Institution discusses 2017 and the next two year outlook:
Here’s 8 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:
home prices are appreciating and it’s a safe investment over the long term
millennials need a home to raise their families
rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
bankrupt buyers are over their 7 year prohibition from the last recession and they can buy again.
Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2018 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month to 2024. The building is resuming now that the hurricanes and forest fires are over.
Will it be enough to support the economy? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units per month is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.
From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King
These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.
Sharing is Good for your Social Health!
Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!
Expert Predictions – US Housing
1. Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.
These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%. — BusinessWire
2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.
US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.
US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024
According to BLS the job outlook is positive. Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with 226,000 more than last year, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Residential building construction trended up by 5,000 jobs. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.
National Employment Growth
Growth Predictions, 2014–24
Median annual wage, 2014
Total, all occupations
Job Growth by Occupation to 2026
2016 National Employment Matrix title and code (Chart data courtesy of BLS
Median annual wage 2016
Total, all occupations
Personal care aides
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food
Home health aides
Software developers, applications
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners
General and operations managers
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand
Waiters and waitresses
Accountants and auditors
Market research analysts and marketing specialists
Customer service representatives
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers
Maintenance and repair workers, general
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Stock clerks and order fillers
Teachers and instructors, all other
Receptionists and information clerks
Sales representatives, services, all other
Business operations specialists, all other
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
US Housing Starts to 2024
This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
Housing and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts
New Single Family Sales
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Federal Funds Rate
90 day T Bill Rate
One Year Maturity
Ten Year Maturity
Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual
Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.
Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.
Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
Apartment Rental Forecast
Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.
Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including New York, Los Angeles, Palm Beach, Miami, For Lauderdale, Orlando, Boca Raton, Wellington, Delray Beach, Boyton Beach, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, and other cities in the states of Florida, Texas, California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, New Mexico, Lousiana, Alabama, Maryland and Pennsylvania.
Every year, tens of millions of drivers get their insurance renewal papers mailed to them and they simply ignore them and let their policy rollover. That’s money lost!
By taking a moment to consider the high rate they’re paying for the type of coverage they’re receiving, they might decline theie insurance company’s offer. If you knew the savings they might be getting, you’d be switching.
If you want to save thousands on car insurance, you have to start thinking bigger savings numbers than the 15% someone like Geico offers. Very few auto insurance companies talk about savings. Their advertisements are low key because they want to make a brand impression without stirring up their customers thoughts about value and price.
You’re a Smart Consumer – Shopping Gives you Power!
It’s a fact that shopping is power. Your choice of where your money goes, shapes the economy and is helps you share and promote your values. You decide who gets rich.
And right now, you’re here because you demand a lower quote for auto insurance and by searching, you’re going to get your wish. If you’re persistent and keep at finding the insurers who want your business, you’ll be switching car insurance providers. In the past, car insurance companies would give you misery if you tried to change insurers. Even today, you have to be careful of it because even the smallest gap in coverage could cost you. Yes, insurance is a racket and there’s nothing you can do about it other than keep shopping for the cheapest rates and lowest quote.
The 10 Major Auto Insurance Companies
Here’s more than 30 insurance companies below to help whet your appetite for a lower auto insurance quote.
Here’s the major brand insurance companies in the US, beginning with Geico who spend a inordinate amount of money on TV advertising. Many of these companies advertise online and you’ll see them in your searches on Google. Don’t be hypnotized by the brand names and sign on eagerly because you liked their TV mascot. Remember you’re here on this site because you intend to save money on your car insurance. That’s you quest and you should stick to it. It could be mean saving $10,000 or more over 5 years. What could you do with $10k?
Geico Auto Insurance Company – the popular insurer we recognize from their television Gecko mascot is the 2nd largest auto insurer in the United States, after State Farm. Geico is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway insurance (Billionaire Warren Buffett). Geico provides auto insurance coverage on 22 million+ cars, trucks, motorcycles, motorhomes etc for 14 million insurance policy holders.
State Farm Insurance Company – is headquarted in Bloomington Illinois and has a whopping and expensive payroll of 18,000 insurance agents. It’s total net income in 2013 was 5.2 Billion dollars and it has 44 million auto insurance policies in effect.
Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Company – BHI is is owned by Billionaire Warren Buffett, which boasts a yearly income of $24 Billion and they own Geico Insurance.
Allstate Car Insurance Company – Allstate is the 2nd largest personal insurance insurer in the US and in Canada, (behind State Farm). It is the largest publicly held insurance company (net income of $2.7 Billion) and it owns esurance.com a top online insurance website. Allstate has its headquarters in Northbrook Illinois and has a yearly net income of $2.7 Billion.
USAA Auto Insurance Company – The United Services Automobile Association is a financial services company that earns more than $24.6 Billion annually. It is located in San Antonio TX and offers a huge range of personal property and casualty (P&C) insurance, life insurance, automobile insurance, homeowner insurance, renters’ insurance, as well as umbrella and personal property insurance.
AAA Auto Insurance Company – The American Automobile Association (AAA ) is a large group of motor clubs throughout the US and Canada (CAA) having more than 55 millions members. AAA is a non-profit member service organization. AAA is located near Orlando Florida with office located in Los Angeles, Boston, New York, Chicago, Phoenix, Toronto and many more major cities.
Nationwide Car Insurance Company – Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company & Affiliated Companies is a group of large insurance and financial services companies based in Columbus, OH. It’s yearly revenue is $40 billion.
Liberty Mutual Car Insurance Company – Liberty Mutual Group is a huge, global insurance company with its head office located in Boston, Massachusetts. The company’s $29 billion, and 45,000 employee workforce means it is one of the biggest insurance companies in the world. The company provides home, auto, business and property insurance.
Progressive Auto Insurance Company – Progressive Insurance writes insurance policies for automobiles trucks, motorcycles, boats, and recreational vehicles through their independent agency channel and a direct channel known as progressive.com. Progressive Insurance has its headquarters in Ohio. The company reports yearly earnings of $21 Billion.
Farmers Auto Insurance Company – Farmers Insurance Group is located in Los Angeles CA. It earns $12.6 billion in revenue yearly and provides car insurance and truck insurance coverage for automobiles, homes and small businesses via it’s 50,000 independent insurance agents.
Car Insurance Infographic – Major Insurers in the US
Cheaper Car and Truck insurance Quotes
Search for hours for the best auto insurance rates in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Colorado Springs, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.
Welcome to the latest edition of the Auto Insurance News Report. Aside from finding the insurance company offering the lowest auto insurance quote, we’ve got insight into auto insurance trends in the US and Canada.
Please bookmark the page in your browser and return often.
ICBC Desperate for Cash to Stave off Bankruptcy, new ideas include caps on claim payouts, street cameras, and almost impossible requirements to gain a driver’s policy discount. New NDP government has its ands full with throttling Alberta oil and is clamouring to deal with ICBC $1.3 Billion deficit for 2018.
The government’s ICBC executives are trying to resolve their business crisis with ineffectural fixes. They believe raising car insurance premiums, capping accident claims, considering driving experience in driver ratings, raising premiums for drivers with minors and serious convictions, giving discounts for low-risk drivers and by revamping ICBCs antiquated driver rating system, they can avoid privatizing the auto insurance industry.
BC drivers and tax payers might still be wondering how this will resolve a $1.35 billion dollar problem each and every year ahead.
Vancouver’s experimentation with government run auto insurance is revealing what it should have known before. ICBC has run into severe financial difficulties and is now looking at any revenue sources to keep it alive.
Vancouver BC Canada to Have the Most Expensive Car Insurance
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is charging that the ICBC is using its monoply to drive Vancouver auto insurance rates higher. That would give Vancouver auto rates the distinction of being the highest in Canada, above the car insurance rates Toronto drivers pay.
The ICBC is a provincial government department which controls all auto insurance in BC. It was asking for a 6.4% increase in premiums. The CTF says this will push average car insurance rates in Vancouver to a whopping $1680.
That would underscore the importance of shopping for a better auto insurance quote and comparing value.
ICBC’s own poll of BC drivers suggested they want more competition in the auto insurance marketplace. 89% of respondents believe shopping around for insurance would save significantly on their auto insurance costs. Last year, ICBC stopped providing insurance coverage for luxury cars.
Auto Insurance in Toronto Continues to Rise
A recent report called Fair Benefits Fairly Delivered: A Review of the Auto Insurance System in Ontario, revealed that Ontario drivers paid an average annual insurance premium in 2015 of $1,458 per vehicle, nearly 57%higher than the national average of $930. A report in the Toronto Star suggest that high premiums are going to experts and lawyers and not to those injured in auto accidents. That was not the intent of the no fault insurance program, but it looks like the rich are benefiting from it, rather than ordinary Ontario drivers.
High Tech Cars Being Blamed for High Auto Insurance
A new report from suggests that new advanced technology used in today’s cars is actually driving up insurance rates. In fact they’re blaming the 8% increase in auto insurance rates on the new tech in vehicles, increase in cars on the road, and higher medical bills.
Consumers not using Latest Technology to File Claims
Although many insurance copnaies have sunk a lot of money into apps and online connectivity, car owners are not ready to use them it seems. JD Power and Associates just reported that only 9% of claimants will file online. Overall satisfaction with their digital first notice of loss (FNOL) online service dropped 16%.
It seems insured parties prefer a quick phone call to report an accident. JD Power found that claims service was the most important benefit. Customer satisfaction with digital appraisal apps improved by 26 points among Gen Y consumers, but declined by 16 points among Pre-Boomers.
Will Tesla Electric Vehicles Cost More to Insure?
If you’re one of the 300,000 people who put down $70,000 each for a Tesla Model 3 this year, you may want to plan ahead to pay your auto insurance too. If the price of the car plus finding a recharging station aren’t concerning you, the cost of your insurance may.
A report in the Huffington Post suggest insurance rates for electric cars is about 6 to 8% more expensive than a comparable gas powered car. This is despite the good crash testing ratings of the Tesla models. If you’re looking to know more about car insurance for Tesla vehicles, visit ratelab’s excellent coverage.
From the Denver Post:
Tesla’s U.S. sales of its Model S sedan jumped 59% over the same quarter last year, increasing its already sizable lead among large luxury cars, according to internal third-quarter sales numbers — which Tesla usually keeps confidential — and competitor data compiled by the company. Tesla says it’s now responsible for almost a third of all sales in the segment. Its nearest competitors are the newly updated BMW 7-Series and the Mercedes-Benz S-Class.
UK Drivers Paying More for Electric Vehicle Insurance
A new report from the Actuary says UK drivers are paying 45% more for ecar insurance. Despite government mandated controls of gas powered vehilce and a push to clean air, it looks like the cost of repairing electric vehicles may be weighing on cheaper auto rates.
Growth of Electric Vehicle Sales Faster Than Anyone Expected
According to EV Volumes, sales of electric vehicles are rising quickly. They found that total plug-in vehicle sales in June increased a 46 % over last June. The growth is reported to be 10 times that of traditional gas powered vehicles. The EV growth seems to be attributable to a preference for them in China and the fact new batteries are cheaper and more powerful. The trend continues.
Around 312,000 plug-in electric cars were sold during the first half of 2016
Tesla Motors is preparing to revolutionize the automobile and fuel industries. Learn more about Tesla.
Higher Insurance Rates in Some Toronto Neighbourhoods
Canadian insurance website Kanetix, recently published a report that shows that drivers in certain Toronto neighbourhoods are paying more for insurance. The graphic below shows the neighbourhoods Kanetix determined to have higher auto insurance rates. The report suggests that the presence of hazardous intersections may be the source of risk that results in the higher premiums. They also reported that insurance rates in Toronto may be 30% or $449 higher than the provincial average. The difference in premiums from the least expensive to the most expensive was $945 per year.
For certain types of drivers and certain types of vehicles, we’d have to think the differences could be much wider. The risk factors would magnify each other and results in a higher insurance quote for certain types of drivers in some neighbourhoods, yet generate very low insurance quotes for others.
A report in the Toronto Star, citing the Kanetix study says claims are more frequent in these areas of Toronto and the payouts are higher. They cited poorer neighbourhoods as having the biggest increases. In one case, a driver said his premiums rose by $1000 when he moved from Ajax to Toronto to eliminate his commute. In the report, Pete Karageorgos, director of consumer and industry relations of Ontario with the Insurance Bureau of Canada says that shopping for insurance is the key to keeping rates under control.
The takeaway from this recent news is that insurance companies may be making major alterations to how they underwrite insurance in order to grow their profit margin. Good too stay aware or get caught in their trap!
If you’re a driver in California, you might be feeling badly about this ABC news report that you’re the worst car and truck drivers in the country! They quoted a study by QuoteWizard which looked at traffic citations, incidents of people driving under the influence, along with the number of car crashes into consideration. It seems California has more of all that and are probably paying for it when they buy a new auto insurance policy.
“California is number seven for accidents, number nine for speeding, and number five for citations. Even worse, its number two for DUIs,” the study reads.
Rising Speeds Have Results in 33,000 Additional Fatalities
This fascinating new report on CBSnews.com shows how accidents, fatalities and general road safety vary right across the US. We all know certain highways areas are fraught with risk, but the report shows how tolerance for bad behavior could be behind the rates of driving mayhem in certain states and cities. While Montana and Arkansas had most fatalities, with Georgia the fastest growing, New York and California actually had the fewest fatalities per 100,000 population.
Toyota and Honda top Safest Cars List for 2017
38 models were awarded the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s designation of Top Safety Pick. Toyota and Honda lead the list of manufacturers safest vehicles. The reported that one major design flaw in vehicles was headlights. These are the to 6 cars/SUVs that IIHS believed are the best of the bunch in 2017:
Is what happened this week just a correction to a booming market with excessively high stock price valuations, or is it the beginning of a stock market crash?
Experts are scrambling to understand what’s happening but while we’re waiting why not jump in and analyze this while we’re waiting? Sound like a plan?
At this point, the depressing culprit seems to be the persistent announcement of the Fed interest rate hikes. It’s almost a papparazzi thing now. However, when those comments are fed into AI trading bots algorithms, it might become contagion for other markets.
The market correction on the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, FTSE and TSX isn’t over it seems.
In early February, the US stock markets including the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and the S&P fell 5% to 10%. The Dow plummeted 1600 on Monday the worst single day correction in its history.
Will this persistent volatility on the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, FTSE, and TSX become a contagion that affects other markets such as the housing markets? People used the big loss day on Monday as a marker, but perhaps tomorrow will be a new marker?
As an investor, do you need to know the causes of the volatility and correction? Right now, the market has recovered and the US dollar is gaining strength. Yet trade deal turbulence could cause a wobble in global markets. The world is still dependent on the US economy.
Investors are nervous. Experts believe the stock correction was due to Fed Interest rate intentions (are they really fighting inflation?), or ETFs or AI guided trading bots. Since there was no emotion before the mini crash last Friday, it appears the slide was quietly caused by AI trading bots working for large funds.
This post delves briefly into the theory and factors involved in market crashes, corrections and selloffs including government meddling and AI systems (Note: even the people who make Artificial intelligence and self-learning algorithms have admitted they don’t understand how the AI systems make decisions. They learn and make decisions independent of human input and may not be able to report to humans how and why they acted).
As time passes and bots do more of the trading, investors are left with fewer clues as to what is moving the markets and when it’s time to get out. That fear could lead to panic selling next time.
Global stock markets were deeply impacted in the last few days, letting everyone know that markets are connected, even the housing market.
The TSX dropped another 271, and NASDAQ is down 273 points on the day. It’s been more than a correction or sell off, and looking more like a mini-crash is under way. CNBC’s Jim Cramer is calling it a “Flash Crash.”
Lately, the mood has been so positive that investors are gladly ponying up big money for stocks. It’s difficult for anyone to visualize the perils of an overly positive mindset — Euphoria. Are we in the housing euphoria bubble?
Stock price rises will continue in 2018, however, when and how will this amazing bull market end? Lets take a good look at the issue without any counterbalancing rhetoric which prevents us from digging in and exploring the stock market crash mechanisms and theories.
The Dow, S&P and NasDaq all hit new record highs in 2017 and stock valuations are very high, perhaps too high to justify. The recent volatility of bitcoin might be worth mentioning because a few are suggesting it cause trouble for the stock markets. Many investors don’t seem to know what bitcoin is worth.
And given how complex markets, businesses, and computer trading is, investors really don’t know what could happen.
Will the Market Bubble Collapse?
Some experts suggest a stock market bubble is about to burst sometime between now and 2020. Other forecasters refer to government reactions and politicies as the key determinant or crash factor. You’ll hear them in the videos below.
Some even point to the fact that Warren Buffet is sitting on a mountain of cash rather than holding stock. And his stock market indicator is pointing to a crash.
As you’ll see in Tony Robbins prediction video below, people will make money on the market crash (including those selling short). And others will lose everything. Let’s look at the prospect of a stock market crash and hear from experts.
Could we say this crash will be like a series of wobbly dominoes that begin falling, while overconfident officials feel they can reach out and stop the crashing tiles?
Some experts cite the euphoria of stock markets during their bull runs. They suggest the heightened unrealistic expectations create a platform for disaster and when reality strikes, truth launches panicked sell offs. Some say the overvalued stocks, economy, and general optimism present right is a sure predecessor of a crash. It may have been that way in 1987.
Stock values have reached levels not seen since those two disasters and a correction would throw the world economy – currently seeing an ongoing boom period – into disarray — news report.
Stock prices and housing prices have ridden on a tide of low interest rates, demographic changes, government stimulation, foreign trade, technology, and more. At the end of a long business cycle, consumers are satiated. But do consumers have all they want? Are investors ready to leave US stock markets for gold and currency?
What do the Historical Stock Timeline Charts Say?
This chart of the S&P index shows market crashes are uncommon.
Economic indicators are traditionally used to identify potential crashes. Check out these top 6. Are investors so optimistic that economic data can be disregarded?
Graphic courtesy of Yahoo Finance – DJI up to 2018 Graphic courtesy of Yahoo Finance – NASDAQ up to 2018
Is What Happened in Previous Market Collapses Relevant?
Bearish experts will rely on history, and history likely will side with a crash outcome between 2018 and 2020.
The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% – from Wikipedia
Panic – Where Reasoning Disappears
Panic emotions of investors and government leaders is the X Factor. Today, markets are driven by computer algorithms that act faster, and still ultimately controlled by emotional humans. If you’ve ever seen a stampede, you probably can visualize the events in 1929. Some are thinking that computer aided panic is what might happen.
Make sure your friends and family have a good lock on the economy and markets. These are scary times ahead.
AI Systems may Panic without Emotion
Artificial intelligence systems, trading algorithms, or AI predictive programs may even be more prone to panic because their actions are actually irrational. They’ll sell lightning fast without any reference to long term value.
When panic hits, the AI systems may become almost useless, other than predicting which stocks will crash slower.
In fact, such AI algorithms are so complex, the programmers can’t figure out how the AI systems are making their decisions. AI systems can’t describe why they make their decisions either.
The AI systems are increasingly autonomous, taking cues from market activity yet not really knowing what the activity means on a human emotional level. AI systems don’t really understand the human element of international trade and politics. Geopolitical risk is a major factor today.
If thinking about a US stock market crash is too difficult to visualize, you might consider selling soon. Getting greedy is one additional sign of irrational thinking that’s driving stock markets and housing markets currently.
Housing markets are key because real estate has been driving the economy for awhile. A bursting housing bubble could launch the landslide that takes down the stock markets.
Seriously, Could US Stock Markets Crash?
All positive economic cycles generally end with some sort of rapid descent, just like a roller coaster. That descent at the end is the rush out just like a stampede. It’s completely desperate and irrational.
Long term, everything returns to the equilibrium point. The stock market crash is the point where investors lose all confidence and decide to pull their money out pronto. Sell, Sell, Sell.
As a million dollar home owner or prospective buyer, you’re wondering when this record long economic boom will end.
An important signal is desperate buyers jumping into the housing market at excessively inflated prices, overly indebted and leveraged, they fall hard when the panic button gets pushed.
Cheap Financing Overcomes a Blocking of Housing Supply
When governments prohibit land development, it makes home prices rocket. More millennials wanting/needing homes, high immigration, rising income, low interest rates, cheap mortgages all together create the drive to buy a home.
Big money chases few homes, and when governments persist in stopping or not supporting land development, speculators become more confident prices will rise further.
Then a politician steps in with their solution, at the end of the business cycle where employent and profits will begin to drop. Speculators/investors pull out fast, and the slide begins.
Will the Housing Market Collapse Too?
Home prices are now around record levels, but there is low unemployment, low mortgage rates, and a huge population hoping to own. That’s desperation. Enter cheap financing companies giving buyers a hope at ownership, just like 2007, and a housing market collapse.
President Trump’s recent tax revamp is going to extend the cycle for sure. Yet that provides more time for the “crash factors” to form like clouds on a beautiful sunny day.
Business cycles form just like cold weather fronts over the prairies. They end in storms.
Have a read of Wikipedia’s description of market cycles and the various theories of why markets collapse and you’ll be more certain that they could indeed happen. From MIT’s inverse cubic power law, to chaos theory, researchers focus on the mathematical and technical elements.
People follow each other blindly like they were tailgating each other on a high speed highway. If anything happens, there’s going to be a chain reaction crash.
The way the expert describe mimicry however makes it look like everyone abandoning ship so are they mimicking others, or just jumping off the ship at the same time? However, the fact investors simply copy others buying and investing behaviors makes the abandonment more likely.
The research suggests mimicry was present in most stock market crashes and housing crashes. The predictive behavior is nervousness about the market, followed by mimicry, followed by panic. That panic could be set off by anything because of investor/owner anxiety.
Let’s say Warren Buffet sells a huge array of stocks suddenly. That combined with news about an impending war, poor jobs report, and fast rising interest rates, could be all it takes.
None of the research however, seems to be applied to human expectations, human happiness, and human panic. Human’s don’t pay attention to historical trends and data, nor what AI systems advise. They generally pay attention to now just like herding animals before a stampede. The signal that sets the herd off, could be one or two animals stumbling over a pothole.
The final analysis would reveal that people sell stocks and housing when they believe strongly the market is heading down. That’s when the wealthy and speculative investors check out en masse.
With stock market prices and housing prices at record highs, even uneducated investors and home owners would be vulnerable to bad news and false outlooks.
Tony Robbins Predictions on the Market
Tony Robbins explains why this Stock market crash could be the single best opportunity of your lifetime.
The major media networks might exaggerate some financial, political and consumer facts an launch a slide. The general consensus of Internet users driven by a Facebook/Twitter/Instagram mentality could easily exaggerate threats.
Major geopolitical actions might actually mean nothing materially for the markets, but if interpreted otherwise, it could start a slide that governments couldn’t stop.
In this video, Peter Schiff talks about government action being the key thing to predict a stock market slide.
The latest theory of RR Reversal has it that all markets suffer a pullback of 10 to 40%. So empirical data and events are the basis of future action.
Given the success of political correctness, fake news, and social media pressure, it’s not hard to see a big pull back driven by emotional investors and buyers. That could launch political reaction which magnifies the issue.
As good as prognosis the US economy has, there are a lot of human emotional factors that could launch a recession.
Let’s not forget that we’re a long way into this business cycle. The end is surely in sight. While not everyone is satiated and ready to stop spending, many wealthy people are.
The wealthy have unusually powerful vote about trends. When they pull out of the economy, that news will be heard by AI systems and human investment advisors.
When the panic button gets pushed this time, it will be the shock wave before the tsunami.
Even if we turn everything over to artificial intelligence systems, our global economy is new. The AI systems are seeing a new environment with new players. Chinese buyers and investors think differently than US bankers or European politicians. And a herd of 1.5 billion panickers is a scary thought.
Given the battle between Trump and his enemies, it’s an emotional environment that fuels income for news media. As you know, they need sensationalism to pay their bills. That smoke screen is enough to keep people off balance and insensitive to the real investment issues. At some point, in emotional confusion, the stampede could take place.
Most forecasting models don’t go beyond 2020 or 2024, and that in itself might give you pause for thought. The fact that investors, homebuyers, and corporations can’t visualize 2 years ahead is worrisome, especially since experts have access to all the data.
Too many forecasters, economists, and business people look at data, but is data just a false cue and where everyone reacts too late?
Screen capture courtesy of CNBC
Robert Shiller himself isn’t alarmed at the CASE ratio. He suggests that investors diversify their investments. That would help allay panic type behavior.
The Stock Market Crash Acelerators and Signals
Paying attention to economic changes and other signals could give you forewarning of what could happen from 2018 to 2020. If relying solely on professional stock market experts and news stories would not be wise. As the overall indicators move relentlessly high, it might provide a clear signal that market is cresting, and will head back down to equilibrium.
One clear signal might be excess in demand which draws money and government reaction.
Here’s a BIG list of housing market crash factors to look for:
stock prices at record levels
government passes complicated new tax bills that confuse and make investors uncertain
geopolitical events disturb international trade relationships and flow of goods/money
inflation and wages rise faster
housing prices peak
consumer product surpluses
natural end of a long business cycle
stock price to earnings ration too high (Shiller Pace is above 30)
misery index rises (unemployent rate + inflation rate)
the NAAIM index is too high (professional investors optimism)
growing market fear that may induce panic (investment advisors, market experts, bloggers)
assets have peaked in profit performance and wealthy begin to unload
too much consumer debt combined with risky investments (housing) and rising unemployment
accidental or emotional timing of government fiscal events (China preventing funds exodus)
When do you think this current bull run in the markets will end? Will it be soft or a loud crash?
Note: The statements and information presented in this post is not intended as professional investment advice. It is solely an exploration of stock investing and the risks, perils, and behavior of stock markets and the economy. No one should rely on a single source of information or a single stock market and investing professional’s advice. The overall message of the post might be to diversify stock, real estate, and cash/gold holdings as a hedge against stock market crashes. Investors should look into hedging strategies but be aware that even hedging may provide limited protection from a crash.
Do we need home selling tips just for 2018? I think we do.
Our focus is 2018, the year of more competition and listings. The economic circumstances, taxation issues, price trends, migration, create unique forecasts for each housing market in 2018. To sell at a good price in 2018, you’ll need some strategy and tactical sales excellence.
Even in the best cities, prices are flat and homeowners will have more difficulty persuading buyers or property investors to buy their properties.
The tax situation is less profitable, the US dollar is falling, new home construction is up, the stock market is wild, real estate investors wary, and the economy looks solid.
As you’ll read in the home selling tips, you can have your cake and eat it too. Let go of all the “compromise” talk and know that you can get the maximum prices your home, cottage, condo or land is worth. Everyone knows real estate is precious and governments are committed to constraining supply.
When is the Best Time to Sell My House?
Timing your home sale is important, and asking “when is the best time to sell my house” is a wise question. Make sure you know all the time related issues to seasons and the economic trends happening now.
How to Start a Bidding War?
At some point, you’ve quietly thought about how to start a bidding war. Selling at over asking price is common, but with top notch real estate marketing strategy and a knowledeable Realtor, you can ratchet up your selling price.
Which Renovations Increase your Selling Price the Most?
When you’re planning the sale, you know buyers are hungry, but maybe during negotiations they cite how your house is not in good condition. Worse, maybe a good number of prospects online are turned off by its appearance? Instead of letting that happen, and just dumping your home on the market, you might discover which house renovations increase selling price. Make the most of your reno budget.
Should you Sell Your Home Fast or for a Higher Price?
Do you know how Realtors selling strategy? You have a choice when you’re working with a Realtor, whether to sell it quick or take your time with marketing and build interest to a larger pool of buyers. Most Realtors use a blitz type of selling strategy where they maximize the impulse or desperation of buyers.
They might push it all into one intense weekend showing where it’s organized like an auction. Buyers see each other want your home and they might get emotional and start ramping up their bids, well over asking price. It works and clients get the picture that the Realtor has done a fantastic job of creating buyers and whipping up frenzy.
However, if the property has all sorts of flaws, is in a weak neighborhood, and it’s not high season for selling, the home might not sell. If the quick blitz backfires, you could see your selling price rocket downward. Anyone can sell during high season, but the Realtor who can sell you house now, is a good one.
Consider getting that kind of Realtor, create a plan, and do a blitz over 3 weeks. The best buyer prospects will hang on if they know you’re doing a 3 week blitz. You won’t lose them and instead you could enjoy 3 times the buyers and bids (over that 23 day period). In fact, the collective effect on the final winning price could be staggering.
We’ve all seen homes sell for exhorbitant prices, even more than double the home’s value. You might want to tap into that craziness and get some extra money for your kids/grandkids education expense.
The above posts offer extensive home selling strategy and selling tips to help you reach a bigger, targeted audience, give them what they’re dreaming about, encourage more and higher bids, and help close the deal with a record high price. Hopefully, the media will report your selling success like you were a star Mega Millions winner!
Whether it’s 2018, 2019, or 2020 that you hope to buy a home or invest in a rental income property, you might be comforted by the knowledge that real estate does well anytime you buy.
If you take great recessions and banking crises out of the timeframe you’re considering to buy, then your long term investment is sound. The historic price charts show rising home prices throughout the decades.
An if you’re a first time buyer, paying a huge chunk of your income to rent, this whole matter of buying at the right time is important to your current and future well being.
Avoid the Peak Times to Buy a House
So you’re wondering what time of year is best to buy a house? Or, are you wondering if there’s a time of the month where more houses suddenly come on the market, where you might get first dibs? Sometimes selling after a major weather problem might be a good time too.
Okay, for those without a strategic sense, buying in the fall months traditionally might be best to get lower prices. However, everyone pulls their house off the market during October, November and December. That can’t be good for a home search.
If you have a smart Realtor, and a real good home search strategy, you might be able to find those sitting on the fence and get a low ball offer in. You might get lucky and save tens of thousands of dollars and get a property that everyone else gave up on.
Is Spring the Best Time to Buy a House?
Spring 2018 is a great time to get started your house search. Home owners and buyers are arising from their winter dens and thinking about 2018. In many cities, the demand for homes has already started. Realtors are still talking multiple offers and bidding wars.
If homebuyers are actively listing to sell during January to March, then they are likely eager to sell their listed home.
They might be babyboomers sitting on the fence about selling (they’ve got nowhere to go) or they could be Generation X aged couples thinking about moving up to a larger property. A lot of buyers, perhaps you to want more space.
If you meet with these property owners you may be able to convince them to progress with their life plans. That means anytime time of year might be the best time to buy a home.
A report from Trulia shown below reveals fall prices drop by about 7% yet still remain 5% below for the months of January, March and February. You can find a bargain from January to April 1st. That means you should be looking right now for your next home or condo, before mortgage rates start to climb.
January, February and March might be the best time of year to purchase a property for real estate investors as well.
This might run counter to what people believe and have been told about the market. It might be harder to search for a home and get sellers to sell quickly. But remember, the actually possession date is off in the future.
People who might sell have more time on their hands in the Winter, especially if they live in Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, New York or Boston. It’ll be easier to get in touch with them and discuss your sincere, heart felt offer.
The best time to buy might be right now. If the economy improves and wages do rise, home prices will rise throughout the 2018 to 2020 period. Unless you’re very pessimistic and believe in catastropic events, demand for housing is unmet across the US and Canada. With more money in the picture, the longer you wait, the more it will cost.
Launching your Research to Negotiation Strategy
So now, you need to discover the best way to reach them. Having a realtor who feels similarly about the winter search timeframe is good. If they don’t like, go with someone else. The compatible Realtor is likely not busy so they can put a better effort into finding homes, approaching the homeowner, and working with you to put out the best offer.
They may even take a lower commission, but don’t push that. The Realtor will likely be worth the 2.5% you pay them. If you wait till April, May or June to buy, you’re getting the highest prices, most competition, and your Realtor is too busy handling multiple clients and micromanaging negotiations. So that’s the worst time to buy — when everyone else is.
Another bad time to buy? During the Super Bowl Game. Take a look at the Super Bowl predictions and put your money down, and then enjoy the game on Feb 4th, 2018.
When is the Absolute Best Time to Buy a House?
The very best, ideal time to buy a house in the winter, may be near or at the winter holidays such as Easter, spring break, or teacher professional developent days. Homeowners may be at home and may be most susceptible to the idea of selling and moving.
Late winter is a restless time for those in the cold, snowbound north, which is why a good number of people fly south for a vacation. Discontent, fatigue, boredom, and desire for something better is what gets them off the fence about letting go of their old house. Why do people sell in the spring? Because they’ve had enough after their winter of discontent. Catch them early.
Don’t worry about which days are best to buy a house. The key is to use your all channel accelerated home search strategy into action, and begin uncovering your dream house amidst winter’s gloom.
Good luck with your house search. You’ve found the best time to buy because it’s the best time for them to sell.
There’s no shortage of doom and gloom talk about a US housing crash that would take NYC down with it. In fact the recent reports of high foreclosure rates in Queens, Bronx and Staten Island are a little alarming.
The 3rd quarter market performance was less than stellar, the worst in many years.
Yet the Trump tax bill may just rectify the foreclosure carnage even as it slowed sales and lowered property prices as investors and buyers waited it out. The wait might be over now.
Overall home prices rose above $1,000,000 and condo prices fell 11% to an average of $2,689,147. It’s the high end properties that got hit hardest. At the lower end, NYC has a full blown housing shortage.
With income averaging about $60,000 per year in New York City, it’s difficult for many to buy homes averaging $680,000. It’s estimated that to buy a home in NYC, you need an income of $100,000. New York State’s economy was a sluggish underperformer in 2016, however in the last 12 months NYC has gained 68,000 jobs. In November alone, NY State grew 26,000 new jobs.
The US economy persistently grows and improves despite the terrible debt and trade deficits left by the Obama administration. The Trump Administration new Tax bill are being viewed as positive and have quietened talks of housing market and stock market crashes.
Bar any issues with trade relations, and President Trump’s recent visit to China is a good start, all should go nicely with the US housing scene and help New York recover further. It could be said that NY’s inability to create new housing has made it too expensive to live their. That scares away business and makes buyers suspicious of a NY housing crash.
This chart below from the Case Shiller Home price index shows NYC’s real estate is stable and optimistic.
NYSAR New York Real Estate Update December
Here’s the latest New York housing stats published by NYSAR, shows the typical US housing data, that supply of affordable homes has dropped 1%, sales are down 2.5%, and average prices are up 7% from last year.
Screen Capture courtesy of NYSAR
You could say that just like the San Francisco market and Los Angeles market, and all major city markets acorss North America, the New York housing market is under pressure. The NYC forecast is for more of the same, but at least, the market here isn’t like it is in Seattle, the Bay Area, or Los Angeles county.
It’s pretty far fetched that New York’s real estate performance could deviate too much from the US national forecast. A crash isn’t favored by the stats.
Some Experts are Talkin’ Crash while Others Aren’t
There are enough media and realty pundits talking about a real estate market crash in New York soon. CNBC called from one back in the spring, but it’s not happening. Prices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, have kept rising slowly.
A Tale of Two Markets?
It’s softening in the high end luxury sector where DOM is lengthening and prices have dropped almost 1% during 2016 according to one report. But demand at the lower end has stayed strong.
New York State Realtor Association is Optimistic
NYSAR reiterated NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s keynote speech at the 2016 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in Orlando, Florida. Yun explained that younger buyers are likely to drive growth in residential markets in the years ahead as the economy stays on a positive track and interest rates stay relatively low.
Here’s the 3rd quarter market report from NYSAR. New listings are down from the previous quarter, avg/med prices are up and number of months supply has dropped 29%.
Here’s an exerpt from NYSAR’s latest new report:
“Looking ahead, the modest closed sales increases in September and the third quarter may signal that the continued decline in available homes is starting to impede closed sales growth,” MacKenzie said, noting the 20.7 % decline in homes on the market at the end of the third quarter compared to the same period in 2015. “Buyers, who are trying to take advantage of otherwise favorable market conditions, are finding fewer choices available to them causing them to delay the purchase of their next home.”
The year-to-date (Jan. 1 – Sept. 30) sales total of 95,453 was 11% above the same period last year. There were 38,629 closed sales in the 2016 third quarter, up 2.8% from the 2016 third quarter total of 37,575. September 2016 closed sales increased 2.1%compared to a year ago to reach 11,780.
The New York Building Congress Forecast 2017 to 2018
Calls for $127.5 Billion in Total Spending Through 2018. 2016 was a record year for housing sales and jumped past the $40 billion mark for the first time. NYBC also forecasts a total of 147,100 jobs in NY’s 5 boroughs in 2016, an increase of 8,900 jobs from 2015 but will fall a few percent to 142,600 jobs in 2017 and 138,100 in 2018.
These screen caps are from HUD’s Comprehensive Housing Market Analytis of New York City, NY. New York’s economy was rolling along nicely.
Is that forecasted softening in employment enough to cause a crash?
The Building Congress’s outlook for new home construction is 27,000 new units and $13.1 billion of residential spending in 2017, and 25,000 units and $12.7 billion in spending in 2018. That’s down significantly from the 36,000 units built in 2015. With nowhere to live we can expect residents new and old to bid on resale stock and that should keep home prices level.
Donald Trump did make an election promise to cut government spending and tax the wealthy and that could make an impact, yet it appears private demand is what is driving the economy right now.
Removal of the Dodd Frank noose and easing of mortgage lending should create more demand for homes in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle, Houston, SF Bay Area, Miami, and well, every US city. If land development regulations are eased, it will allow for more home construction and help to ease the auctions atmosphere that has rocketed them upward.