Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2017

Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2017

Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2017

Toronto Real Estate Forecast: The Toronto Condo market and Housing market keeps on rolling however, prices appear to be subsiding a little in many districts. Some Realtors are advising  to hold off buying with expectations of price drops yet is this the right time to make that impossible to find purchase?

A Surge of New Listings Await those Ready to Buy

The May 2017 Toronto home sales report data shows buyers are finally deciding to sell. And in some districts such as Markham, Richmond Hill, and Newmarket, prices are falling. In many areas, prices have held consistent. It’s not a surprise however since housing availability is squeezed.




What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. And prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury and it’s pushed prices up by 30% to 40%.




The April 2017 The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 31.7 per cent year-over-year in April 2017. On a positive note, listings increased more than 33.6% from last April.  Despite government attempts to block it, the great migration northward has happened. Prices in Georgina, Barrie, and Innisfil saw price increases above 40%.

Video: Benjamin Tal speaks with BNN about Toronto Housing Market:

Toronto Region Home Prices April 2017

This comparison chart reveals not all zones had prices increases in April. However the YoY price growth is still astonishing (data courtesy of TREB).

Average Price – Detached Homes TREB
City April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 April 2016 YoY Price Growth
Burlington $1,012,092 $1,059,284 $1,035,563 $961,502 5%
Halton Hills $887,915 $785,810 $824,672 $828,719 7%
Milton $970,946 $977,545 $936,532 $765,973 27%
Oakville $1,511,483 $1,626,066 $1,612,648 $1,191,503 27%
Brampton $902,211 $891,761 $850,433 $660,015 37%
Caledon $1,077,006 $1,025,545 $1,093,827 $755,494 43%
Mississauga $1,237,499 $1,253,748 $1,222,347 $966,467 28%
Toronto West $1,192,221 $1,223,700 $1,129,762 $944,422 26%
Toronto Central $2,477,836 $2,450,955 $2,503,188 $1,983,187 25%
Toronto East $1,071,235 $1,070,867 $1,049,198 $860,814 24%
Aurora $1,480,547 $1,381,668 $1,336,427 $1,155,487 28%
Bradford E Gwillimbury $1,074,529 $1,166,594 $989,957 $764,055 41%
Georgina $714,704 $735,142 $696,406 $548,886 30%
King $1,790,166 $1,854,652 $1,673,576 $1,283,432 39%
Markham $1,715,311 $1,680,833 $1,731,618 $1,363,887 26%
Newmarket $1,179,431 $1,143,251 $1,203,484 $841,593 40%
Richmond Hill $1,884,611 $1,835,719 $1,775,279 $1,412,443 33%
Vaughan $1,576,434 $1,614,738 $1,574,159 $1,191,632 32%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,391,435 $1,369,276 $1,334,566 $1,048,658 33%
Ajax $830,007 $842,127 $772,682 $646,370 28%
Brock $509,336 $560,420 $445,153 $419,758 21%
Oshawa $668,128 $659,351 $651,961 $467,981 43%
Pickering $1,016,432 $938,118 $902,352 $772,399 32%
Scugog $677,474 $694,529 $663,333 $545,804 24%
Uxbridge $896,481 $1,086,816 $1,142,450 $798,749 12%
Whitby $862,840 $841,996 $811,603 $618,032 40%
Orangeville $643,402 $669,051 $568,391 $490,825 31%
Innisfil $682,199 $733,048 $603,196 $476,756 43%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are attracting a lot of attention.

2017 Sales in Toronto Will be Another Record

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region is 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.




The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors
  13. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  14. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  15. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  16. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

Check Homes for Sale in Toronto Right Now!

Toronto Home Prices

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices have been or each type of housing. Properties have increased their value by 1/5th to 1/4 in just one year. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price this spring.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2017?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale

Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know. As we progress to 2017, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

 




Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program is primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors are worsening the situation and that the Ontario government won’t change course. We can expect prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora to climb given they have new home developments and wealthy people want to live there.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. It appears the Ontario government is feeding the price fire with enriched fuel while dousing it with eco-water at the same time.

The Fed’s finance minister is feeling the pressure too and believes he’s got the ultimate solution. He’s remaining tight lipped about economist’s forecasts whom he requested, as he is expected to release information soon. The federal deficit is expected to come in at $5 Billion higher than predicted in the March budget. The Trudeau government is in some hot water.

Tell Them Before It’s Too Late? 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

 

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – April’s stats not out yet.

Wicked Rises in Toronto Detached Home Prices

The latest Toronto Home Price chart from TREB shows some interesting stats in specific towns/communities. Some of the highest over list selling prices are in formerly low priced regions such as Toronto East. Not shown, but noteworthy is the average price of a detached house in Toronto C12 district is 3.64 Million dollars which rose $1 million from September.  and Toronto C04 district where it is now 2.1 Million dollars, up $500,000 from just last September. You can read more about his on the Trebhome site.

Screen Capture Courtesy of TREB – Toronto City Districts April 2017

City of Toronto Detached Home Price Trends

This chart courtesy of TREB shows house prices are volatile, and that some districts in the city have phenomenally high prices. Major drops in prices may be due to insufficient sales volume in that district.

Toronto City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Avg Price Feb 2017 Price Change Since Feb 2017
Toronto W01 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 $1,496,501 0.7%
Toronto W02 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 $1,269,501 21.2%
Toronto W03 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 $819,572 4.2%
Toronto W04 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 $1,049,570 -2.3%
Toronto W05 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 $889,235 4.7%
Toronto W06 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 $966,571 0.8%
Toronto W07 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 $1,437,219 3.3%
Toronto W08 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 $1,491,329 3.6%
Toronto W09 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 $1,019,588 17.5%
Toronto W10 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 $758,259 9.7%
Toronto C01 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 $2,352,876 -30.0%
Toronto C02 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 $2,443,750 10.9%
Toronto C03 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 $2,747,397 -18.2%
Toronto C04 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 $2,469,565 4.6%
Toronto C06 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 $1,516,558 7.2%
Toronto C07 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 $1,922,347 4.3%
Toronto C08 $1,603,333 $2,100,833 $1,625,000 $1,999,000 5.1%
Toronto C09 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 $4,160,891 -22.0%
Toronto C10 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 $2,146,833 -9.4%
Toronto C11 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 $2,162,613 5.2%
Toronto C12 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 $3,986,692 -0.4%
Toronto C13 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 $2,204,960 18.2%
Toronto C14 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 $2,746,606 -7.0%
Toronto C15 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 $2,145,518 -0.1%
Toronto E01 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 $1,221,833 43.1%
Toronto E02 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 $1,622,159 -10.1%
Toronto E03 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 $1,134,094 -3.0%
Toronto E04 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 $928,362 -3.3%
Toronto E05 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 $1,262,751 -1.0%
Toronto E06 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 $940,073 11.9%
Toronto E07 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 $1,111,507 4.8%
Toronto E08 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 $1,025,958 4.0%
Toronto E09 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 $855,064 0.0%
Toronto E10 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 $981,789 8.8%
Toronto E11 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 $761,409 10.6%

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto




Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.




News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical

The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016




I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Is it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto are now going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

foreignownership-toronto-cma

Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.




A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Oil, Interest Rates, and Foreign Money

Common sense and simple logic tells us the outlook for the Toronto Real estate market is good for quite a while. What could possibly cause a burst bubble? Sudden high interest rates? Not gonna happen because inflation isn’t an issue and we need a low loonie. In fact the base rate has headed back down. Oil won’t rise much and it’s steady as she goes at just under $50 a barrel. If oil does rise a lot, we’re back to boom times for Alberta and that’s good for Toronto too.

More foreign investors are learning about buying property in Canada and it’s like the money pipeline has widened further if anything. More “Persians” and “Chinese” are eager investor immigrants and want to have their kids educated here.

macleanschinatoronto2017housing

Graphic courtesy of Maclean’s Magazine

Property searches on Juwai.com have risen 134% over last year.  The total value of all Canadian properties that Chinese made inquiries for, almost tripled to $14.9-billion in 2015 from $5.6-billion in 2014, according to Juwai. The top city by total value of properties searched was Toronto, where it more than tripled to $7.4-billion.

Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto are heating up considerably of late and with more people moving to these municipalities, it should drive demand even higher for 2017. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes is down to 10 — only Oshawa homes sell that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.




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Latest Top Blog Posts: Best Real Estate Investment | Home Price Forecast | Toronto Housing Market Forecast | Los Angeles Housing Market | Lead Generation | New Homes for Sale in Newmarket | New Homes for Sale in Aurora | York Region New Construction | Aurora Luxury Homes | Mississauga Real Estate Report | Toronto Auto Insurance | Vancouver Auto Insurance | Bradford West Gwillimbury Homes | Best Investment Opportunities | US Housing Crash 2017 | When is the Best Time to Buy a House? | When should I Sell My House? | RETS IDX | Zillow Home Search

 

 

Gord Collins — Real Estate SEO Consultant —  I generate leads for realtors in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita,  Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Colorado Springs, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu. Find a Toronto Real Estate Agent who will actually work for you.




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There are 5 comments for this article
  1. John at 10:45 pm

    What a disaster we Canadians have got ourselves into. Is real estate what we do as an economy now? Do what it takes to make your retirement buck now & who cares about the next 30 years of up and coming generations.

    The market should have corrected years ago but because of poor polices and virtually free money we are in a situation where, when it crashes the entire economy will go with it. So much laziness and greed has been applied to the Canadian real estate market I can help but think we deserve everything that’s coming our way.

  2. Larry at 1:34 pm

    The simple fact is that house prices are rising much faster than incomes. Houses will become unaffordable to many Canadians. US interest rates are on a slow path upwards and Canadian rates will eventually follow. Toronto is in a bubble but the real question is whether we will see an orderly slow decline in prices or more like a crash.

    • Gord Collins Author at 1:51 pm

      Larry, my view is that prices will keep rising fast, with insufficient new housing stock, and indebted Millennial first time buyers will be over-leveraged as they buy the cheaper homes. And they may not really be able to afford them. It’ll be one thing that will start the landslide, perhaps foreign money leaving that does it.

  3. Dan at 12:25 am

    Excellent collection of insights. Thank you Gord. We had our second child in Jan. and Toronto may not work for us anymore.
    – Are you aware of a ranked list of cities by cost of housing, not cost of living.
    – Curious how Toronto stacks against US cities per ft2 selling price
    – Most indexes I find take total cost of living into account and use apartment rental rates
    – I just saw one that ranks Toronto 23rd most expensive city in N.A, seems way too low given the bubble.

    • Gord Collins Author at 4:59 pm

      Thank you Dan. Congrats on the new member of the family. Yes, so many people are facing the decision to leave the GTA entirely. Might be agonizing at first, but it might be better for your kids. With the Internet, they won’t miss much. What do you think of Calgary? Buy low and and wait for oil to come back? Isn’t that how big fortunes are made? I don’t know of any such lists but perhaps I should make one:). What’s the first place that comes to mind when you think about moving?

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