Did you know auto insurance premiums rose by 7% last year, far above the usual 3 to 4%. When drivers don’t shop around for better insurance quotes, or mortgage rates, or a home, companies take advantage.
Even with no claims, they draw funds form your account for years and decades on end. Any you never ask them for anything. You’ll be happier if you get online quotes. It’s so easy and hassle free.
It’s all about lower rates and getting lower auto insurance quotes. Yet insurance companies won’t just offer them. You have to search for a better car insurance quote. Now that you’re hear, it’s time to begin your search.
“Shop Around for a Lower Car Insurance Quote“
Compare Car Insurance Rates
If you’re not comparing auto insurance rates, you’re giving away money. In fact, car insurance shopping is the only way to can substantially lower your premiums and get better converage. This post will convince you and give you some new options.
You get lower auto insurance by comparing quotes from different vehicle insurance companies. There are a lot of them out there. There’s big and small insurance companies and independent brokers looking for your business.
Rising auto insurance isn’t a local issue. Car insurance rates are rising everywhere but it appears consumers are apathetic about it. If you look at the price charts below you’ll see how much people expend for auto insurance.
Self-driving cars could raise auto insurance rates for you and I, since those autonomous car companies would negotiate their own low rate coverage. They’ll save plenty, but you will have to negotiate your own insurance rate.
The average auto insurance premium in Ontario, Canada is $1,458, which is almost 55% higher than the average of all other Canadian jurisdictions — from a Globe & Mail report.
It’s 2017 and time to take massive action to save money. Have you investigated UBI or usage based auto insurance? Check out the auto insurance rate quotes for your city or state below.
Get the best auto insurance quotes in Toronto, Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, Phoenix, Denver, Boston, New York and other cities where consumers are fed up. We’re all paying too much to insure our cars, SUVs and trucks. It’s hard earned dollars ($10,000) that you’re giving away but now that can change. Has your loyalty to one insurance company done much for you?
Look back at the last 20 years of auto insurance coverage you purchased (e.g., 20 x 12 x $150 = $36,150). Could you use that money right now?
It’s a Great Time to Switch Auto Insurance Companies
Yes, switching insurance companies is a wise financial choice. There are videos, charts, infographics and quote comparisons below that will open your eyes. When it comes to finding the lowest insurance rates, and a better policy, this might be a good starting point. It’s best to do lots of searching and get a wide variety of quotes from insurers. Just through persistence alone, you’ll get the best rates. You could save $10,000 over 6 years or as much as $1800 in one year.
Do you Need Collector or Luxury Car Insurance?
Here’s an auto insurance niche where you can get more price and appropriate quotes for your Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Ferrari, Lamborhghini, Bentley, Rolls Royce, or Maserati.
I’m sure you’ll find the auto insurance quote comparisons below an eye opener.
According to one source, the average price of auto insurance across the US is $1100 to $1200 per year — that leaves lots of room for you to start saving!
Virginia has become the 19th state to ban consumer price gouging – Consumeraffairs.com – fair warning that you are probably getting taken.
Not all of the big name companies such as Allstate, Progressive, Geico, Nationwide, State Farm, Mercury, StateFarm, and others offer great rates or the coverage you actually need. I know from my own searches that I tend not to be thorough enough. I get restless and frustrated and settle for a higher auto insurance quote than I should. I want to help you optimize your quest for the lowest auto policy.
Sharing Really is Caring
Share this post on Facebook with younger drivers who need some relief from $4000 to $8000 policies.
My Car Insurance Quote
I conducted a search directly on the insurer’s websites of Geico, Progressive, Statefarm, Liberty Mutual, Mercury, Allstate, AAA and Farmers. In the chart below, you can see the quote for a 40 year old male living in Santa Ana, California, driving a 2010 Hyudai Santa Fe 4 dr sedan to work 30 miles away daily, and having one non bodily injury accident (hit a car). We need an example to analyze an auto insurance quote, so let’s take a quick look at this one.
Statefarm’s auto quote was about $1300 less per year than Liberty Mutual’s. Over 6 years, that translates to $7800 in savings if I chose Statefarm. Further below, I sought quotes via insurance hotline and the variation was bigger. With your own search, you may find one local insurance company who may be willing to insure you at much less.
Is a 40 year old driver with one accident statistically that risky? Obviously Liberty Mutual, Statefarm, and AAA believe there is huge risk. Each company processes the statistics differently, and they’re entitled to. However, are they being reasonable about it. Is the auto quote abnormally high?
Some of these companies make you fill out endless questions, some of which you have to wonder are even legal. I liked Progressive’s online auto insurance quote process the best. It was quick and the least painful. They seem to respect your time the most. Their quote was a little higher than Allstate and Statefarm, but I suspect Progressive has a better corporate culture — a signal of how they’ll treat you after becoming their customer.
Auto Insurance Tips from Everquote.com
Auto Insurance Tips on how to Get Cheaper Car and Truck Insurance
Canadian Auto Insurance Buyers are Getting Ripped Off
Car Insurance Quote In Canada
Here’s another example auto insurance quote for a 2014 Hyundai Santa Fe, 4 door, for a 48 year old male with one ticket. See the huge difference in quotes from individual brokerages? That’s right, in this case there are two Aviva brokerages competing. The lowest quote was from Travelers insurance. It equates to $1700 savings per year and more than $10,000 over 6 years. That’s a significant amount.
Auto Insurance Rates by US State
Just in case you’re curious, here is Insure.com’s rankings of States for car insurance policies for one year.
3. Dodge Grand Caravan – annual car insurance premium $1,174.
4. Jeep Wrangler Sport – annual car insurance premium $1,181.
5. Jeep Compass Sport 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,190
6. Ford Escape S 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,194.
7. Buick Encore Sport Tour 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,200.
8. Jeep Cherokee Base 2WD – annual car insurance premium $1,203.
9. Nissan Frontier S King Cab – annual car insurance premium $1,204
Here’s something to think about to motivate you: a savings of almost $1000. How long does it take you to earn $1000 x the next 4 years = $4000. Because, insurance buyers tend to be loyal (or just lazy) and stick with the insurance company that’s sticking it to them. If that’s you, then, spend a whole afternoon or evening searching for a lower auto insurance quote. Save your money.
Sharing is Good for Your Social Health, and good for others bank accounts. Help them save by sharing this post! Who couldn’t use all that money?
A survey by carinsurance.com (they do these studies for PR and for wider exposure in social media and Google) so take it with a grain of salt. Carinsurance.com stated that in California, the average annual premium across the six top carriers was $1,428 (significantly higher than national average of $1,277). The cheapest car insurance averaged an amazing 33% less, at $960.
The Type of Car you Drive is a Key Factor
You may not realize that the insurance companies offer cheaper insurance for a certain type or brand of vehicle. Jeeps for instance have very cheap rates. Why? Who knows? They’re not divulging anything that will cause them to lose profit. Obviously, your age, sex, and recent driving record will determine if you can get those best rates. Are new electric cars like the Tesla Model 3, Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf the way to go?
I welcome all inquiries from businesses inLos Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita, Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Colorado Springs, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.
Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions to 2020
May 19, 2018. TREB reports another flat month in sales in the Toronto housing market. Sales shrank 1.2% and average home prices dropped only .2% during April.
If not for the Toronto Condo market, the Toronto housing market would be wheeled into the critical care unit. What some are called a balanced market are twisting words about as far as they can be contorted.
You’ve seen the same discouraging stats for many months now. Nothing new. Perhaps it’s time to look at what’s wrong with this market and why Toronto housing crash is being uttered more and more.
Election 2018 – No Help for Housing?
The latest TREB report however was overshadowed by the bomb dropped by Doug Ford, leader of the PC party. Ford suddenly recanted his promise to increase housing development and construction to help with the housing crisis. Voters were praying for relief and now it’s uncertain who will win this coming election. Political leadership in Ontario is a big negative for buyers and investors.
Since Toronto is slated to be a global supercity with a big increase in population, any land restrictions and red tape are serious issues. Right now buyers aren’t buying (house sales down 5%) and sellers aren’t selling (nowhere to go) so it’s a Mexican standoff during what should be a hot sales period.
It’s another indication that housing in Toronto is solely a political issue. Ontario’s election day is June 7th and this will put the Toronto housing conflict to rest either way. Yesterday’s news should be a boost for the Toronto condo market.
Toronto’s Insatiable Appetite for Money
Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.
A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.
For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.
Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.
When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?
A Change is Coming for Ontario
The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.
Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.
The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.
No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.
After the Storm
During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.
Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.
TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.
On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.
They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??
Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years. With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.
The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.
Toronto Forecast for 2018
What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018? A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.
Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario. It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)
This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell. Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.
The market in the GTA seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”
Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices keep rising despite governments attempt to throttle it. On June 7th, Ontarians will get their chance to speak.
Selling your home in 2018? Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo? Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.
Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.
If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.
The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.
With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.
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Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.
Teranet Home Prices
Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.
Toronto Real Estate December Report
What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy. New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November. Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.
This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.
In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.
Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).
You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.
Condo Prices Rose 23%
And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.
Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.
Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.
1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand
Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.
So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.
Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.
You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.
TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”
The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018. The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.
What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA. When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.
Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls. Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?
Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation? With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.
Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.
Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter. That could help solve the afforable housing issue. Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo. Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.
November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer
Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.
New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look. Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king. Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too. Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).
Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house. Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.
Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?
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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?
Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.
When Will You Put up your House for Sale?
Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.
That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.
The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.
Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts
New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is 6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010. Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.
While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices. These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.
Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices.
Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017
condo average price up over half a million dollars
condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
condo sales volume dropped 8%
number of new listings grew only 1%
condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices
The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment
TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:
w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside
Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.
US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.
The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales.
I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices.
Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook
Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook. This page is updated frequently.
A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report
Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:
Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
residential listings were up 16%
Prices rose 6.3%
The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)
What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?
Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city. It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.
And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population.
While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.
Please do share this report with anyone you know who might be buying or selling
Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018
Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
Price Change Last 23 months
Price Change Last 8 Months
Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report
A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts
Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®. Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.
But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse? If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.
The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:
severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
rising demand from buyers who have been renting
restrictions on development land for housing
Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
will the low dollar continue?
will oil prices stay at current levels?
rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
rising interest/mortgage rates
Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
rates of employment and income
asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
business investment in Ontario continues falling
consumer debt loads and credit ratings
further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan
And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide. President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.
What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region? What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.
As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).
Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?
Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks
Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?
If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.
Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.
BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.
If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.
Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.
What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?
The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing. As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:
Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases
Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed
Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor
Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss
Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules
Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)
Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure
Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending
Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much
Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers
Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space
Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules
New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply
Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to
Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto
Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.
Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.
News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors. Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.
What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?
I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.
Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?
Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors 10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.
TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.
Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.
If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.
In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor. And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.
Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?
We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.
The Usual Suspects? Government
The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks). Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.
Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?
Memories of a Sizzling Hot GTA Market
Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moved to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town meant speculators jumped on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring 2017 — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.
Homebuyers are still willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north.
What will the next few months bring for the housing market and economy in Toronto? What are your predictions?
Generating leads for Toronto realtors and realtors in Los Angeles, Toronto, San Diego, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Francisco, San Jose, and many more cities acorss North America. I welcome enquiries from the UK too.
The success of online shopping via Amazon tells us consumers enjoy the experience of shopping around. No sore feet, parking hassles, or traffic stress, not gasoline prices, better prices, and infinite selection makes shopping online compelling.
Shopping for a cheaper mortgage should be that way too.
Instead of accepting your own bank’s tired high interest offering, you’ll enjoy saving thousands by shopping online for a lower mortgage rate.
Surprising and proven savings of 5 to 22 points translates to an average savings of $2,914
Mortgage Rates are Rising
Yes, they will grow by the week, but that doesn’t mean you can’t break free of the rising costs, by switching mortgage companies and locking in at a guaranteed rate that will save you thousands.
Type of Mortgage
Weekly Rate of Change
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
20-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
10-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Fixed rate for the life of a loan
7/1 ARM Mortgage
Fixed rate for 7 years, then raised thereafter
5/1 ARM Mortgage
Fixed rate for 5 years, then raised thereafter
3/1 ARM Mortgage
Fixed rate for 3 years, then raised thereafter
Better terms, lower monthly payments and lower fixed fees will make this process an even more palatable one for you.
As you’ll find out below, when homeowners search for a better rate, they generally get a lower mortgage rate quote of an astonishing 5 to 22 points! And that translates to an average savings of $2,914 if the borrower receives 5 mortgage rate quotes. On a 30 year 5% mortgage rate on a $500,000 home loan, the savings are even bigger. By Shopping around yu ensure you don’t get sold a product you don’t really need.
Along with lower rates, shopping for mortgages with lower broker or financing fees gives you more than enough justification for shopping around online. You’re on your computer or mobile phone! Fight back against the banks high rates by shopping right now.
You can ask about terms, rates benefits, and anything you don’t understand with those offering up a mortgage quote. Shopping online takes a lot of the friction, uncertainty, and effort out of getting the best mortgage possible.
Fixed Rates, HELOCs, Savings, and Debt Refinance
This summer, everyone’s thinking mortgage quotes because rates are rising. This rise will affect your mortgage approval, home refinancing rates, Heloc application, debt refinancing, and much more.
The banks are becoming more rejecting so it’s time to widen your search using all channels, including mortgage brokers. The Freddie Mac survey shows us the value is there. And you don’t want to wait for nasty surprises that could see you lose your home.
“Won’t my bank give me the lowest rate possible?” Why would they give you a rock bottom rate if you’re going to renew without asking? They’d be cutting their own big profits.
Questions: Does shopping around actually create a significant difference?
In these graphics courtesy of Freddie Mac’s recent mortgage shopping report, buyers saved at least 10 points on average (orange and green dotted lines) and some as much as 22 points. The more questioning and persistent you are, the further the savings you generate.
Rising Mortgage Rates in the US
In the US, rising mortgage rates are a concern. Mortgage applications dropped for a 4th straight time since March and that’s weighing down the US housing market.
Tighter lending, bank reluctance, and higher rates will mean refinancing your mortgage will cost hundreds to thousands more in 2019 and 2020. How many days does it take you to earn that money?
Cost of living is about to rise. With inflation on the upswing, flat home prices, and gasoline and oil prices being forecast to rocket, the next year could bring pain and stress for many homeowners who need to refinance.
The big banks have owned the mortgage market since 2008, but Freddie Mac is supporting non-banks who are providing mortgage related financing to more consumers. Quicken Loans, Freedom Mortgage, LoanDepot, and Caliber Home Loans are just a few of the other new online mortgage loan providers competing for your business now. There are many more in addition to brokers and banks.
Mortgage Rate Quote Tips:
⦁ research rates and know what is actually a good mortgage rate before you accept
⦁ get quotes from at least 5 different mortgage brokers or online providers
⦁ ask about special quotes for certain occupations
⦁ do maximize your down payment amount
⦁ lock in at fixed rates for at least 10 years
⦁ ask how much in interest you’ll be paying for the life of the home loan
⦁ ask for special benefits such as payment holidays
⦁ renegotiate in spring when more lenders are cutting rates to win business
Canadians are Facing Record Mortgage Refinancing Levels
In Canada, around 47% of all existing mortgages will need to be refinanced this year, according to CIBC estimates. And that’s up from the 25 to 35% range in a normal year. Canadians will be in a rush to capture better financing and they’ll likely be switching mortgage lenders to get it. Dominion Lending for instance is seeing big growth but they’re also rejecting more mortgage applications.
Rising interest rates and tighter lending regulations in Canada combine with very high consumer debt levels, making it tougher for Canadians to qualify for and get mortgage refinancing they can afford.
This could make for more volatility in the Toronto housing market and Vancouver housing markets. For the first time in a long while, borrowers are nervous and concerned about refinancing rates they need for home loans, HELOCs, and to repay off debts. These higher financing rates are expected to set off a cascade of housing and financial issues across Canada.
The Fed is expecting to raise interest rates slightly and the housing market isn’t expected to cool much.
Any rise in rates right now however creates a significantly higher monthly payment. Check the mortgage rate calculator to see how much your monthly payments will rise when rates go up a further 1%.
Mortgage Rate History – St Louis Fed
If we look at this graphic below, we can see how far up mortgage rates could rise again. The small increases in mortgage rates right now seem cheap in comparison with the early 1980’s. However today’s home prices are significantly higher and wages are lower in comparison.
Since early January, mortgage rates have been rising fast. With inflation creeping upward, wages rising and housing construction growing stronger, more American will be buying real estate.
The Secondary Mortgage Market and Brokers
You shouldn’t be accepting your banks offer without looking at what the secondary financing market can offer. A savings of a couple of points on a 5 year fixed term or a 30 year fixed rate loan is nothing to sneeze at.
Checking a mortgage broker in your city is just plain wise and there are many advertising online. You’ll have access to better mortgage benefits and find a lower mortgage rate.
It’s All About Finding a Lowest Mortgage Rate
If money is a commodity and there’s plenty of mortgage lenders, then it’s all about finding the lowest mortgage rate quote. Of course, those rates won’t just jump out at you. You’re going to have to do some searching for a better quote online.
According to Freddie Mac, borrowers received rate quotes ranging from 4.2% to 4.8%. That’s way a patient search process is vital for you to get the best deal.
Good Luck with Your low rate mortgage search. Bookmark this page because it will be updated with more news on mortgage rate savings!
May 18, 2018. Your Epic report and forecast of the 2018/2019 US housing market offers facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.
NAR reports that existing home sales grew in April, 1.1% which is well up from the 1.2% loss 12 months ago. See the NAR charts below for others stats and which are the hottest markets for April.
Spring Market is Starting Strong
It’s an unusual spring market given the growing purchasing power of home buyers in low to mid market prices. That makes it a great market for those looking to sell their current home to trade up to a better one.
Resale home transactions rose 1.1% in March showing clealy that buyers are hungry to buy. However, listings have declined 7.2% and prices have risen 5.8% versus last March.
It’s a sellers market and it will be for some time. If you’re hunting for houses for sale, you’d better have an advanced search strategy.
The dwindling numbers of homes for sale should push prices upward in Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Miami, Seattle, New York, and Houston . It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.
Please feel free to use this material on Linkedin and Facebook. It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who face a big decision about buying a home or condo in 2018 as home prices and mortgage rates rise.
NAR’s March Update
Homes sales have risen for 2 months straight, however they’re down 1.1% from same time last year. Although prices haven’t hit the 2007 records, they are too high for most to afford even though wages have grown. Home prices are now running at double the average wage increase.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $250,400, up 5.8 percent from March 2017 ($236,600). March’s price increase marks the 73rd straight month of year-over-year gains — from NAR
Boston, New York, New Jersey
March existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 680,000, but are still 9.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $270,600, which is 3.3 percent above March 2017 – from NAR update.
Housing inventory is the most influential and persistent factor affecting home prices. Despite this, the media and some politicians blame speculation, building costs, interest and mortgage rates, cost of living, and mortgage rules. When the economy is good people want homes. Construction is strong but can’t keep up. Simple rule of supply vs demand is driving home prices.
Looking for housing market predictions? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.
Please do share this post on Facebook!
Should you Buy or Rent?
We all want to own a home, but does it make more sense to rent? If you can’t afford a home in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Dallas, renting may be the only option. Here’s a few blog posts I’ve written on the US rental housing market, apartment prices, and on buying vs renting.
What’s Driving the California Housing Market?
Strong demand from an eager demographic and economy is clashing with local resident NIMBYism to create a volatile market. See the California housing report.
This completely updated EPIC United States Housing Report has market updates and predictions for 2018 to 2020, and other data to 2026.
NAR’s VP of research Paul Bishop, predicts sales will be flat for 2018.
One of the biggest challenges is going to be in certain high-cost parts of the country where they have high home prices, relatively high property taxes or high state income taxes, then that’s ultimately going to make the cost of owning a home more expensive.
In addition, renters may lose the incentive to buy a home in high-cost areas if they can’t use the mortgage interest deduction or the ability to deduct some of those other housing-related costs from their taxes. It’s focused mostly on the higher cost areas. It’s certainly something that everyone will be monitoring and how the housing market reacts in 2018 and 2019 — from a news release on DSnews.com.
In this post, you’ll discover the hottest city markets, zip codes, get economic, employment, finance, and housing projections to understand the key fundamentals driving home buying, rental investment, home construction, and the real estate markets in 2018/2019 to 2026. Read thoroughly if you’re considering buying a house this year.
What’s the story for summer of 2018? It has to be Texas and Michigan, however the overall picture is of a very good spring and summer for the housing market nationwide and going forward to 2026. Population growth in San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Phoenix continues strong.
The Complete Picture for 2018
Ready to choose your realtor and buy a house or condo this year? The outlook is really rosy! And how about investing in a rental income property for sustained passive income? This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.
Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing marketare positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.
Are you considering buying homes for sale as an income investment? With Apartment rent prices holding strong in 2018, it’s a solid investment strategy.
This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).
Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.
Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.
NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
Realtor.com® 2018 Forecast
Home price appreciation
Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end
Existing home sales
2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing
3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses
New home sales
Growth of 7%
Home ownership rate
Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally
Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the jobs picture, wage growth, investment, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.
The resistance to housing development is slowing. Conservatives are giving up amidst intense pressure by those facing outrageous housing shortages and skyrocketing rental prices.
Housing Shortages Won’t Ease
Although January’s sales were disappointing, it’s due to the severe shortage of housing. Demand is there and you’ll be competing against a hoard of buyers in 2018. Corelogic expects 2018’s home prices will grow 4.3% by next December. NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices this year. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.
The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’s tumbled. Listings fell dramatically in cental California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.
Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.
The tax cuts should help although the Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden stock market volatility. Although some disincentives are present for home buying in certain price ranges, that will help keep the market balanced for 2018.
Sharing is Good! Share the Insight with others on FB and Linkedin
A brief overview of January 2018 from NAR.
Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party
Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.
Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers, all of whom are looking for houses for sale.
New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018
New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.
The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.
The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.
Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies
Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise. With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale. This fall, new home sales have been brisk as reported by the Commerce Department.
Mortgage Rates on the Rise
15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.
Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac. The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.
The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy. Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.
Home Sales Expect to Rise Nationally
Freddie Mac Predicts strong sales driven by moderating prices nationally.
And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.
Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer
According to NAR’s latest report, San Francisco is again the hottest city, taking back the number one spot from San Jose. The hottest small city is Vallejo California, enjoying a spillover from the Bay Area market. Investors and buyers will be hard pressed to find buying opportunities are.
Silicon Valley prices will pressure businesses to look to cheaper cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas, Houston, Austin, etc in 2018/2019.
Hottest Real Estate Markets in April 2018
Where are the hottest cities in the US? They’re all over this month and only 3 from California made the new top 20 list.
Hottest Cities for Investment Value
This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.
Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.
Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.
20 Hottest Housing Markets, January 2018 (Realtor.com)
Current Home Prices
San Francisco, CA
San Jose, CA
Colorado Springs, CO
San Diego, CA
Santa Rosa, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Boise City, ID
Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For property investors or buyers with minimal cash, the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modesto, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale. As usual, California and Texas lead the way, however Michigan is looking good with the President’s intention to bring the auto industry and related jobs back to the US.
In some markets such as California, home prices have leveled off a little from their relentless climb. There is a slight risk of a burst housing bubble. Outside of major city markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.
Here Panelists from the Urban Land Institution discusses 2017 and the next two year outlook:
Here’s 8 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:
home prices are appreciating and it’s a safe investment over the long term
millennials need a home to raise their families
rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
bankrupt buyers are over their 7 year prohibition from the last recession and they can buy again.
Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2018 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month to 2024. The building is resuming now that the hurricanes and forest fires are over.
Will it be enough to support the economy? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units per month is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.
From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King
These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.
Sharing is Good for your Social Health!
Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!
Expert Predictions – US Housing
1. Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.
These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%. — BusinessWire
2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.
US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.
US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024
According to BLS the job outlook is positive. Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with 226,000 more than last year, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Residential building construction trended up by 5,000 jobs. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.
National Employment Growth
Growth Predictions, 2014–24
Median annual wage, 2014
Total, all occupations
Job Growth by Occupation to 2026
2016 National Employment Matrix title and code (Chart data courtesy of BLS
Median annual wage 2016
Total, all occupations
Personal care aides
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food
Home health aides
Software developers, applications
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners
General and operations managers
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand
Waiters and waitresses
Accountants and auditors
Market research analysts and marketing specialists
Customer service representatives
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers
Maintenance and repair workers, general
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Stock clerks and order fillers
Teachers and instructors, all other
Receptionists and information clerks
Sales representatives, services, all other
Business operations specialists, all other
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
US Housing Starts to 2024
This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
Housing and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts
New Single Family Sales
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Federal Funds Rate
90 day T Bill Rate
One Year Maturity
Ten Year Maturity
Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual
Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.
Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.
Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
Apartment Rental Forecast
Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.
Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including New York, Los Angeles, Palm Beach, Miami, For Lauderdale, Orlando, Boca Raton, Wellington, Delray Beach, Boyton Beach, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, and other cities in the states of Florida, Texas, California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, New Mexico, Lousiana, Alabama, Maryland and Pennsylvania.
While housing markets in US cities waffle back and forth between market crash and price peaks, homebuyers, property investors and Realtors are wondering what real estate will look like in 5 to 10 years time.
In this post, we look at the future of real estate technology (Fintech and Proptech). If you’re a homebuyer considering buying a house, these changes affect how fast you can buy and sell, and how your gain could be thousands of dollars.
When is All This Happening?
Changes are here now. Realtors and Brokerages will have to alter their roles and value proposition to add new value rather than being transaction facilitators, and find new opportunities that are appearing. New tech brokers have already arrived but they don’t have it all figured out yet.
When usage hits whats called critical mass, that’s when real estatebusinesses will adopt it completely as the new standard. It’s about more than blockchain in real estate alone.
Of course there’s resistance to new tech such as blockchain and bitcoin in real estate. Blockchain is tranformative. Yet when someone like rexmls lost $1.3 million mistakenly sending cryptocurrency to the wrong address, we know there is risk all round.
Realtors, investors, lawyers, mortgage agents, title/escrow people, and homebuyers are about to see the real estate exchange and financing business streamlined.
For instance, it’s estimated that 50% of major corporations will switch to blockchain business technology this year. Blockchain by itself is rocking every industry including real estate.
I’ll introduce blockchain and bitcoin below in more detail. In a nutshell, blockchain is the software platform that’s underneath Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin is well known, it’s actually blockchain that has the best potential for all industries. For some of us, this change is exciting. Change means opportunity.
I know you’re curious about Bitcoin cryptocurrrencies and blockchain, but understanding them technically is really tough. You don’t need to be an expert, but you may want to know what is driving this coming change.
Instead of being threatened by the progress to digital real estate via blockchain and other technology, Realtors, lawyers, investors, builders, property managers and mortgage agents should welcome the opportunity of this new era.
And the key opportunity might be in first mover advantage. Realtors might redesign their brokerage to utilize RETS IDX listings, AI driven marketing, and blockchain-based transactions. It’s early, but the right time to learn.
What’s coming is an era of weakening monopolies, greater efficiencies and perhaps lower home prices.
You can imagine how the establishment would like to maintain the old paper-based, complicated transaction process that allows the banks and big real estate brokerages to guarantee their cut of this $116 Trillion dollar global real estate market.
New tech entrepreneurs relish usurping the dominant role in an entire, lucrative industry. They’re motivated. The high rising price of bitcoin should tell you that something big is brewing. They’re already at it in real estate.
“Real estate sales using Bitcoin or Ethereum are adding legitimacy to the use of cryptocurrencies in the real world” — Manuel Perez of the Coral Gables, Fla.-based Elizabeth Perez Team. Screen Capture courtesy of Housing Wire
What’s Driving the Push to Blockchain and AI?
The real cause of this future is the high cost of real estate, monopolies, and the over-complicated/regulated process that real estate professionals must follow to buy and sell homes. It raises prices and slows transactions. And younger consumers don’t like the ring of “million dollar homes.” They like this new technology because they think it will save them money.
From smart contracts to Bitcoin currency to fractional ownership, and artificial intelligence driven buying and selling, the entire real estate industry is about to be streamlined. From finance to construction, blockchain technology in particular is about overwrite the sector. Real Estate will be hard to recognize.
But can the big companies control blockchain to keep the market to themselves? That’s very unlikely since blockchain opens everything up to innovation, transparency, ease of purchase, and lower costs. Buyers will find that very hard to ignore, as will real estate professionals. The smart Realtors will be on this now, to give themselves an advantage in branding and expertise.
Realtors may not have to be blockchain experts, they can use the myriad of blockchain applications and services that will be available. It could be a period of entrepreneurship and creativity for Realtors, and for home buyers and sellers as well.
Who Guards the Status Quo?
Brokers, marketing, banking, retail agents and others facing sudden disruption may enjoy their monopoly and legal power to keep the old system intact.
This new wave of well funded cryptocurrency, blockchain and Realtech startups change the game and playing field. The new blockchain based system is a completely new approach to transferring ownership of property from one party to another. With Cryptocurrency, the banks, mls associations, forex companies, and others could be completely bypassed.
Even the mortgage industry is seeing new startups that offer reduced costs, fees and fraud, and improved efficiency, speed, and transparency.
Sharing is Good for your Social Life — Make Sure others get an introduction to the new technology on FB or Linkedin
Change from Many Directions and It’s Just Starting
The future of real estate will see disruption from many sources, technological, cultural, financial, and political.
The $36 Trillion US real estate industry is pressured by issues of complexity, affordability, frustrated demand, housing development restriction, rising interest rates, competition, big data, blockchain, and more. They’ll all play a role in a complicated forecast amidst an uncertain economic outlook beyond 2020.
Will you be buying your next home via an app using Bitcoin? Should you even buy a home, or rent? It’s not only about techno changes in 2018. The future of real estate involves lifestyle, economic, and investment factors.
Will Realtors and Financier’s Roles Change?
While removing the middleman might be the uber utopia for tech-obsessed 20-Somethings hoping for a price break on a million dollar house, it will not be easy to push big banks, MLS’s, state govnernments, and real estate companies out of the future of real estate. Politics, law, habit, and need for expertise will ensure Realtors don’t fade away too quick.
Propy is a new blockchain based online brokerage serving the world
Realtors, MLS associations, and big brokers control the mls data and in this day age data monopoly is how you eliminate competition or gain monopolies.
A number of tech driven competitors are disrupting and trying to weaken the current megalopoly in real estate markets. Thus far they haven’t been able to land a decisive blow. Big Data may be the weapon to topple the traditional system unless the big brokerages learn to utilize it somehow.
Technology driven companies such as Zoocasa, Zillow, and Compass are growing fast and making inroads on various MLS and Realtor competitors. The fact that the majority of Realtors have few listings or sales and aren’t well supported by the big brand brokerages means these tech companies have opportunity with their own hungry masses of agents. The fact the big brokerages don’t share information with agents now, tells you that Realtors would jump ship quick.
And for consumers, a reduction of commissions and expansion of marketing capabilities means consumers might gain from new tech entrants. And in terms of streamlining, it’s estimated that closings could be reduced to 10% of their current duration.
Yet the MLS associations and brokers hold a lot of data and can keep it out of the hands of real estate startups. Legal battles are raging, but the MLS’s aren’t winning the wars.
Propify, an Australian startup, hopes to leverage the technology into a one-stop shop for home buyers. Drawing from various listing sites, governmental databases and social media, the software company aggregates all available information about available properties into a single space, sourced from a blockchain – from Real Estate Weekly.
Who Owns Big Data?
Big Data is owned by big tech, finance and retail companies right now and the battle over who gets access is being waged. The data is so important, it stands to reason that a few companies would not be permitted by government to own it or leverage it for massive monopolistic wealth. However, that conceivably could happen in the Amazon era.
If everything from finance, real estate to AI driven robots, having it locked and controlled by any money hungry company could bring the system and economy to halt. Big data and open source access will have to be made a basic freedom.
For that reason, how could the NAR or MLS or anyone hope to monopolize their data and market access? It’s a losing battle.
The Coming Blockchain Revolution in Real Estate
According to Forbes, real estate venture investors deployed over $5 billion in real estate technology in 2017. That’s 150 times the $33 million invested in 2010. Blockchain is just one part of that investment.
Blockchain technology is important to the commercial real estate market since it streamlines processes, reduces fraud and cuts costs
What is Blockchain?
A blockchain is a secure network of computers that creates as a living ledger for transactions. When the record is updated with new information — the signing of a contract, the movement of funds, the transfer of ownership — it is updated and time stamped in every computer simultaneously, whether there are two dozen or 2,000. The records are the blocks, the network is the chain — from Real Estate Weekly.
Coinify states that blockchain will speed up real estate transaction, decrease fraud, and increase transparency. For those who worry about international money laundering and organized crime, Blockchain could cut police and investigation costs. Blockchain offers a real digital paper trail.
Blockchain leverages mls type housing data and makes it usable on a larger scale. So the potential power of blockchain systems will threaten the data monopolies that exist in some states and mls districts.
Direct Transaction between Buyers and Sellers
The rewards of listing on a blockchain accessible system will be too much for homeowners and real estate agents to resist. With blockchain technology property and transaction information is published to a public ledger giving all parties access to the home-buying or leasing process. Owners, tenants, operators, and service providers will have access to this stream of incorruptible data. The buyer and seller deal with each other directly.
According the IBREA, “Blockchain offers an open source, universal protocol for property buying, conveyancing, recording, escrow, crowdfunding, and more. It can reduce costs, stamp out fraud, speed up transactions, increase financial privacy, internationalize markets, and make real estate a liquid asset.”
How To Buy Real Estate Using Bitcoin
Yes, a lot of people want to know. I’d advise reading this post on HGTV to get started. Will you still need a real estate agent? Yes, and a real estate lawyer to review all the documents. And these people are insured just in case something does go wrong.
However, make sure you trust the second party if you’re thinking of buying into real estate. “If you want to reverse the transaction due to any litigation, then you need both parties to be compliant,” says Jake. “Bitcoin transactions are not reversible.” — HGTV
Bitcoin and Real Estate
Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are highly volatile right now, however once they stabilize, homeowners will not balk at selling in Bitcoin. The bitcoin cryptocurrency is set to rock the banking and retail industries, so why not real estate?
Real estate can be a lucrative business yet the drive for cost savings and high prices makes players investigate and try out different solutions. Real estate agents, landlords, mortgage agents, and others have been reluctant to adopt software solutions for fear they would lose competitiveness. The future of real estate is technology in almost every area.
However, that intense competition is yet another driver of the kind of change that could see agents and brokerages disappear. I hope that’s not you, but let’s say the flock is culled. What kind of new real estate sales environment is being created and how will you adapt? There’s opportunity in everything.
Younger Buyers Love Choice and Apps
Millennials are the biggest, most wealthy group of consumers now and they’re proving to be brand agnostic and want open source everything. Throw in millions of wealthy young Chinese immigrants/investors, and you can guess that tradition in real estate is about to be replaced by a new culture — the Uber culture mostly online. On Tech.co, Boris Dzingarov suggested 3 factors will change real estate marketing greatly:
Online reputation management
Yet, many agents are using video, have already set up mobile friendly sites, and even dressed up their Linkedin and Facebook pages. And they’re not anymore disruptive than anyone else. I think what may mark the new agent is using technology and digital marketing to connect with more prospects. What may be difficult for them though is that homebuyers and sellers may not accept their pitches. If you can’t go to them, then you’ll have to show up online so they can reach you.
If you have no digital marketing strategy to connect with prospects, make an impact, and remain visible online (top realtors are taking it all for themselves) then perhaps the forecast is as stormy as Dzhingarov is predicting.
Why Agents Will Still Be Needed
Currently, 80% of home purchases are conducted using Realtors, and given the various services they handle, it’s hard to conceive they would be made completely redundant by blockchain or other technology.
Here’s where we can’t do without them:
better knowledge of local neighborhoods
assessment and advice on contracts
real human advice on quality of the property instead of property data collected
price negotiation with buyer or sellers
spares you the anxiety of buying and selling real estate online
help you get a higher price through staging, presentation and sales support
arranges inspection and home showings – saving you time
The Outlook for Real Estate Brokers
I’d like to take a moment to discuss what I see happening in this industry. Here’s the top 15 disruptions that may hit the real estate biz in the coming years:
Real Estate Teams – teams loaded with extra services will battle it out with discount brokers to offer better service, particularly in the luxury real estate market where Luxury realtors will go the extra mile.
MLS Data Freely Available to Everyone – no secrets for realtors to use as a trump card. Homeowners will feed home stats to online vendors who will provide increasing marketing power for them.
Social Media Growth – Realtors will expand their circle of contacts via Linkedin and Facebook, and home sellers will look to engage more buyers to get higher bids for their client’s properties. Social media engagement will keep them connected and actively top of mind to prospects, as other realtors impinge on all their clientele.
Content Marketing – more sophisticated and engaging visual content such as interactive infographics and pdfs, and interactive home tours will let buyers drill down quickly to everything they want to know about the home and neighborhood.
Sophisticated Video – slick videos with aerial shots and stunning quality will become templated much like WordPress web sites are now
SEO & SEM– optimizing for whoever is looking for real estate or wants to prepare for sale. This means having a good SEO is critical for inbound marketing, link building and MLS listing optimization. PPC advertising and remarketing ads will play a role too.
Trustworthiness – the insecurity of Uberization will mean parties will be scrutinized for their reputation and professional credibility. Those realtors that have this all laid out strategically will pass the cred test.
Thought Leader/Advisor – generosity of key realty knowledge will influence because real estate is an expensive investment that the average Joe homebuyer doesn’t understand. The realtor’s role will evolve to become a trusted advisor.
Complete Property Transactions Done Online – from bids to closing costs, every aspect of the transaction will be done online, perhaps via a large tablet device connected to a printer. See Realtypoint’s excellent post on this.
Google, NAR and CREA will lose control of the online realty market – homeowners will list with online entities for exposure and pay minimal fees.
Property Management – More brokers and agents will move into the property management and mortgage business to create more relevant clients, retain them, and build visibility.
More Real Estate Agents Will Go Out of Business – deals will disappear, commissions will fall and competition will be intense and only those with huge client bases will make it.
Clients will gravitate to Large, insuring Finance Comapnies – these firms are capable of insuring transactions, because regular consumers are likely to make big mistakes. Right now of course you and your brokerage and (CMHC in Canada) or (FHA/PMI) in US provides it.
Niche, Boutique Brokerages – they’ll have an edge in relevance, usefulness, and attraction to many buyers and sellers – particularly brokers that offer a la carte services, and prove they have specific types of buyers for a property (e.g., Chinese or Middle Eastern buyers).
Intense Hyperlocal Focus – realtors and teams will use outdoor advertising and social media to dominate local markets.
The Uberization of real estate has already happened. I’m wondering which new Zillows and Trulias rise up to serve this new market? No doubt it’s being discussed in boardrooms right now. [Note: I was invited recently for interviews for a senior digital marketing position with a big, new up and coming lead generation business in Toronto].
Where Will You Be in 5 Years?
The point of this post is to ask you where you’ll be in the coming years and whether you will have initiated the steps to build your future realty business. It’s wise to start planning and connect with the people who will help you grow and sustain it.
What are you thoughts? What changes do you foresee? Will 2018 to 2020 look much different for you and your brokerage? What are you doing to help you survive and thrive in the blockchain era?
Whether it’s 2018, 2019, or 2020 that you hope to buy a home or invest in a rental income property, you might be comforted by the knowledge that real estate does well anytime you buy.
If you take great recessions and banking crises out of the timeframe you’re considering to buy, then your long term investment is sound. The historic price charts show rising home prices throughout the decades.
An if you’re a first time buyer, paying a huge chunk of your income to rent, this whole matter of buying at the right time is important to your current and future well being.
Avoid the Peak Times to Buy a House
So you’re wondering what time of year is best to buy a house? Or, are you wondering if there’s a time of the month where more houses suddenly come on the market, where you might get first dibs? Sometimes selling after a major weather problem might be a good time too.
Okay, for those without a strategic sense, buying in the fall months traditionally might be best to get lower prices. However, everyone pulls their house off the market during October, November and December. That can’t be good for a home search.
If you have a smart Realtor, and a real good home search strategy, you might be able to find those sitting on the fence and get a low ball offer in. You might get lucky and save tens of thousands of dollars and get a property that everyone else gave up on.
Is Spring the Best Time to Buy a House?
Spring 2018 is a great time to get started your house search. Home owners and buyers are arising from their winter dens and thinking about 2018. In many cities, the demand for homes has already started. Realtors are still talking multiple offers and bidding wars.
If homebuyers are actively listing to sell during January to March, then they are likely eager to sell their listed home.
They might be babyboomers sitting on the fence about selling (they’ve got nowhere to go) or they could be Generation X aged couples thinking about moving up to a larger property. A lot of buyers, perhaps you to want more space.
If you meet with these property owners you may be able to convince them to progress with their life plans. That means anytime time of year might be the best time to buy a home.
A report from Trulia shown below reveals fall prices drop by about 7% yet still remain 5% below for the months of January, March and February. You can find a bargain from January to April 1st. That means you should be looking right now for your next home or condo, before mortgage rates start to climb.
January, February and March might be the best time of year to purchase a property for real estate investors as well.
This might run counter to what people believe and have been told about the market. It might be harder to search for a home and get sellers to sell quickly. But remember, the actually possession date is off in the future.
People who might sell have more time on their hands in the Winter, especially if they live in Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, New York or Boston. It’ll be easier to get in touch with them and discuss your sincere, heart felt offer.
The best time to buy might be right now. If the economy improves and wages do rise, home prices will rise throughout the 2018 to 2020 period. Unless you’re very pessimistic and believe in catastropic events, demand for housing is unmet across the US and Canada. With more money in the picture, the longer you wait, the more it will cost.
Launching your Research to Negotiation Strategy
So now, you need to discover the best way to reach them. Having a realtor who feels similarly about the winter search timeframe is good. If they don’t like, go with someone else. The compatible Realtor is likely not busy so they can put a better effort into finding homes, approaching the homeowner, and working with you to put out the best offer.
They may even take a lower commission, but don’t push that. The Realtor will likely be worth the 2.5% you pay them. If you wait till April, May or June to buy, you’re getting the highest prices, most competition, and your Realtor is too busy handling multiple clients and micromanaging negotiations. So that’s the worst time to buy — when everyone else is.
Another bad time to buy? During the Super Bowl Game. Take a look at the Super Bowl predictions and put your money down, and then enjoy the game on Feb 4th, 2018.
When is the Absolute Best Time to Buy a House?
The very best, ideal time to buy a house in the winter, may be near or at the winter holidays such as Easter, spring break, or teacher professional developent days. Homeowners may be at home and may be most susceptible to the idea of selling and moving.
Late winter is a restless time for those in the cold, snowbound north, which is why a good number of people fly south for a vacation. Discontent, fatigue, boredom, and desire for something better is what gets them off the fence about letting go of their old house. Why do people sell in the spring? Because they’ve had enough after their winter of discontent. Catch them early.
Don’t worry about which days are best to buy a house. The key is to use your all channel accelerated home search strategy into action, and begin uncovering your dream house amidst winter’s gloom.
Good luck with your house search. You’ve found the best time to buy because it’s the best time for them to sell.
Google Trends Keyword Search Reports Showing Sparks
It’s normal to see search activity pick up as spring approaches, yet this year’s activity seems to be a little stronger. Kind of harkens back to the pre crash era where real estate was huge and people actually believed they could buy a home. Why do they search for homes for sale? Because they must be thinking a home is in their future. Will the flame get snuffed out or will the fire grow?
Central Northern US is Active
States in the central area of the country are seeing a big rise in searches for homes for sale. It may be an indicator of a strong 2017 for real estate.
Of course to put it all in perspective, let’s go back to 2004. Wow, is the levels we’re headed back to? It shows us clearly how bad the economy and housing market has been the 10 years.
A Laser Clear View of Toronto Housing — 2017 to 2018
Spring 2017 is almost here in Toronto, and tens of thousands of homebuyers will make the decision to buy a home. Yet buyers are confused, not because it may be a housing bubble, but because they can’t picture the value clearly, perhaps in numbers.
The question of whether to buy a home isn’t about seasons, and housing type, or even the neighbourhood. There’s more important factors to considers and you should weigh your pros and cons carefully.
But for some Toronto residents, do they even have a choice? We all have to live somewhere, and it doesn’t seem there’s enough homes to go around.
While Canada is suffering its worst ever performance in attracting foreign investment, foreign purchase of homes here has been high. Foreigners are desperate to park their money somewhere. With that, Vancouver, Kelowna, Toronto, Mississauga and even Montreal have seen their housing markets explode in price. Many of these properties sit idle and empty, waiting for a quick flip.
Yet our hyperactive housing market hides a big secret — our economy is not so hot. If not for the US revival occuring now, you’d have to say Canada’s future is very bleak — hence the lack of investment. Foreign investors are giving Canada a big thumbs down.
Vancouver Danger Signals
When BC applied its foreign buyers tax, it effectively killed the housing market in Vancouver. And with Toronto booming and its prices continuing a rocketing pace, will the Ontario government take similar action? While TREB might describe the market as balanced, it is a precarious, bubble like one where an irreversible slide might grow to a crash. Is this really a good time to invest in Toronto homes? Let’s look further.
The Key Role of Foreign Buyers in Toronto Real Estate
Foreign money may well be the key to Toronto Real Estate Market in recent years. Canadian investment in US property has fallen dramatically because of the sagging loonie, and perhaps due to new border restrictions expected by the Trump government. Canadians will now only be able to afford to buy in Canada. And many are selling their US properties to cash out their windfall. With that, they’ll likely be competing for GTA homes.
With the loonie so cheap against the US dollar, properties in Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, and York Region look very inviting to Middle Eastern, Chinese and US buyers. Political and economic turmoil may well see foreign investors tune into Canada as a safe alternative to the US. Toronto real estate will be their first choice.
The Toronto Real Estate Board just reported another record month of sales on the Toronto MLS for January, and there is no sense or data to suggest condo and home prices won’t keep climbing.
8 Fundamentals of Rising Home Prices to Look for:
1. limited housing availability and people have to live somewhere
2. continued staunch refusal of homeowners to sell their properties
3. low mortgage rates rising only slightly
4. influx of foreign investment money from the Middle East, Russia, Germany and China
5. strong US economy set to spill over into Canada
6. high numbers of Millennials looking to buy their first home
7. condo rental prices are high with low availability meaning a sizble pool of potential buyers exists
8. immigation volume into Toronto is high thus soaking up rentals and creating more buyers from across the globe
The above fundamentals speak well of home prices in Toronto. As long as a US economic disaster doesn’t occur, the Toronto market looks okay. The question then becomes one of do you really want to buy vs rent? Can you afford repairs, taxes, and to commute to this location? Should you buy now so you can lock in at lower mortgage rates?
Worries on the Horizon
However, there is the negative side of the coin. Canadian debt loads are very high, bordering on crisis levels, and should interest rates rise, these same people may face foreclosure. If mortgage rates rise, few buyers will be able to buy at today’s prices. If prices are too high with a threat of a housing crash, fewer people will willingly take that big risk.
The biggest factor for a housing crash or continued growth comes from the US. The repatriation of jobs and business investment back into the United States is the biggest news story of the last 3 decades but there’s worries Canada might be shut out.
Note: Vancouver’s Market has Stopped Rising but Hasn’t Crashed
If the US can carve away at its monstrous trade imbalances and bring back the American middle class, the effects on American wealth will be dramatic. We’ve all seen what this wealth has created in Dubai, China, and Mexico. When all that wealth returns to the US, it will spill over into the Toronto Real Estate market.
The Canadian economy, particularly Toronto’s is intimately tied to with the US, both parties would be devastated by a break in trade. But Donald Trump may have little intention of alienating Canada, even with Justin Trudeau at its helm. The biggest threat we face is Donald Trump’s dislike of Justin Trudeau.
Trudeau’s lack of sympathy and joy for the great American revival will gnaw at Trump’s government. Canada may receive a weaker bilateral trade agreement, which Trudeau will have to negotiate. It could be much worse than the softwood trade has been.
The second biggest factor will be the lack of housing availability. Ontario’s governmental regulations on land development near Toronto is crippling growth. Its plan to intensify development in certain cities such as Markham, North York, and Mississauga will supercharge prices in those areas. Ontario’s high flying tax increases will further put upward pressure on house prices and make home ownership more costly.
Statscan reported job growth only in Ontario, with 20,000 new jobs. This followed on the heels of last month’s 74,000 new part time jobs. People working part time or with low wages can’t buy homes. The future lies with a growth in Canadian exports (the low loonie didn’t make that happen, likely because other countries are manipulating their currency downward for persistent advantage).
With demand continuing right through the winter, it’s hard to believe it won’t be a record spring for the Toronto market. The anticipation of the great American Revival will play increasingly on the psyche of hopeful buyers and those who would like higher paying jobs. It’s this anticipation that will have the greatest effect on where anyone will willingly purchase an average $600k to $1.5 million dollar condo or home.
It takes courage to buy a home, and courage should be built on a systematic pros and cons assessment of real estate investment. I hope your analysis gives you the right outcome. If you’re looking to buy in the Toronto area, please visit my Toronto homes for sale page.
Forecasts of political intervention by Canada’s biggest banks: http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/canadas-biggest-bank-warns-of-possible-cooling-measures-coming-to-toronto-housing-market
Best time to buy a home: https://www.newhomesource.com/resourcecenter/articles/smart-time-to-buy-a-new-home
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The Net Benefit of Real Estate Investors – $9 Billion!
A joint survey by Bigger Pockets and Memphis Invest revealed some fascinating insight into the attitudes of real estate investors and their impact on the US economy. They concluded in their 2014 report, that 28 million real estate investors have a $9 Billion+ effect on the economy. The survey results are displayed in the infographic below.
This really is timely and newsworthy. The numbers in 2017 might be even higher. Add investment in new multi-unit rental property and commercial real estate and the numbers are astonishing. If money begins leaving the stock market and pours into the housing market, how will this affect your own best investment picks?
In the past ten years, investment has been focused on electronic technology and software and with that, the US economy hasn’t fared well. Housing is something the US has always done well and it looks like the general population is about to get wind of this fact.
The spin off investment in furniture, appliances, home servicing, renovation, new school construction, new retail establishments, and more creates jobs in the US and further investment within the US. Is Donald Trump ready to capitalize on this basic and proven economic process? Quoted in a Bloomberg report, Robert Shiller says the US could be in for boomtimes and that means lots of new developments and higher home prices.
Perhaps this is the signal we need to put more investment dollars into real property, whether for buying as an income property investment or in new homes to live in. This infographic offers some excellent insight into investor profiles, risk tolerance, rental price predictions, and more.
Trump: Responding to the Housing Crisis
It’s hard to argue that there is a housing crisis across the country. Even in Canada, with its limitless supply of land, there is a housing crisis too. So we know there is and was something very negative that has been suppressing investment in real estate in North America. This could be about to end with the Trump era.
It’s still uncertain as to what he intends to do, and he probably hasn’t decided what to do. It will all play out in real time. Investors, governments, builders, renovators, realtors, and mortgage agents will have learn, react and plan on their feet. So, it’s an exciting time where everyone will have their values and understanding of the economy, housing market and real estate investment wisdom challenged.
There will be some big failures in the coming years too as Trump further drains the swamp. Old and young investors alike will find the new, clean swimming pond frighteningly responsive and hazardous with all-new predators and regulators. They all want a piece of the housing pie too.
Is 2018 the right year to buy rental income property? Which are the cities with the best return:LA, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle,Phoenix, Denver, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Vancouver, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Bernardino, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Oceanside, Carlsbad, La Jolla, Escondido, Riverside, Hartford, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Indianapolis, Columbus, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.
2018 looks like it’s going to be a more stable period for home prices from Boston to Miami to Los Angeles. Limited residential property, stable employment picture, and rising mortgage rates should keep things in balance in 2018.
What’s dampening that price flame is that prices are too high for Millennials (thus powering up the rental property investment market) and high mortgage rates.
Home prices are anticipated to increase 3.9 percent and existing home sales are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent to 5.46 million homes. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5 percent due to higher expectations for inflationary pressure in the year ahead — Realtor.com Research
Case-Shiller reported a spate of very positive news regarding the state of the US economy and the housing outlook for 2017 to 2020. Housing is boosted by positive indicators coming from two separate reports published on Trading Economics, include:
US housing starts rose to a 9 year high in October 2017
US consumer sentiment rose to a 6 month high
US durable good orders rose
Job vacancies to fall 500,000 by 2020
US GDP will rise 2 Trillion by 2020
From the chart below, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, building permits, housing starts, home sales, will rise slightly next year and significantly grow to higher levels in 2020. Home prices may rise another 10% by 2020 according to their forecast. Still a good time to look for houses for sale.
Case-Shiller also sees the Fed raising interest rates and that US inflation rate will rise. These estimates may not take into account the intent of the Trump government.
And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.” That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.
Overall, it’s a good report that has something for consumers and entrepreneurs and business. Read the full forecast here.
The US housing market 2017 report is positive and this report from the Urban Land institute is positive too. Sure there are variables, especially in different regions and cities across the US, yet a lowered deficit sends a positive message to startups and small businesses that US businesses will have an easier time competing in the US. Looking to invest in rental income property in 2017?
Best Cities to Invest?
Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities 2017 to invest in rental property. In this chart with data from Realtor.com and Kiplinger, I’ve highlighted what might be the best cities to discuss with your real estate investment advisor. I’m not advising anything, just to point out the advantages of diversifying your investment portfolio to cities that are strong and ones that could become strong.
Cities such as Springfield MA, Sacramento CA, or Detroit might pay off in 2020 to 2025. For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?
Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Salt Lake City, UT
San Diego County, CA
Providence-RI Warwick, MA
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
Greensboro-High Point, NC
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Tampa-St. Petes, FL
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
Boise City, ID
Colorado Springs, CO
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
New Haven-Milford, CT
Kansas City, MO KS
Augusta-Richmond County, GA
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN
Oklahoma City, OK
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.
New Orleans-Metairie, LA
El Paso, TX
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA
Austin-Round Rock, TX
St. Louis, Mo
Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL
Little Rock, AK
Des Moines, IA
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
Baton Rouge, LA
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com
From a report in the Pacific Coast Business Times, Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast is quoted as saying that economic indicators do not point to a recession this year or next.
Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame, said The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it’s not running on fumes, he said.
Schiepp said “We really don’t have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don’t see any recession — none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them.” Schniepp spoke to an audience at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village LA, during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.