The spring 2018 forecast for Miami and most of South Florida is very good. According to the Miamirealtor.org, the spring outlook is bolstered by a strong US economy, growing tourism, and strong employment.
Hurricane Irma is history and the rebuild is still underway and after the current lull, the growth will continue. And given a strong economy, rising wages, and that Florida’s no tax status is still alive, buyers and investors will find value in buying Florida real estate. See the Housing Market in Florida 2018 report.
After this winter and spring’s price dip, luxury home prices should rise back to an average of $392k. In December, the market for condos and homes in the Miami Dade & Broward County region remained a little flat, although house prices have risen 7%.
October Sales: Miami existing condo sales increased in October and luxury home transactions posted double-digit gains as Miami real estate returned to normalcy after Hurricane Irma-related tree debris and power outages delayed inspections, appraisals and closings the past two months, according to a PR report from Miami Realtors.
The number of single-family houses listed fell 4.8 % (307 units) in October to 6,152 homes last month. New house listings fell 9.3% and those offered at less thatn $250,00o dropped severely. That spells a housing shortage.
The number of condos for sale rose 5.6% to 15,222 listings during the same period in 2016.
Rental prices have been falling, so real estate investors will have to look harder to find good performing properties in Miami. The market for high priced luxury condos in Miami is suspect, just like it is in many luxury markets. Moderately priced properties continue to be in high demand.
It looks like a buyers market for condos in Miami Dade County. This graphic below might tell you a lot about condo availability here in Miami. This might be the time to invest in a Miami property.
The trend nationwide of course is to rising house prices due to constrained availability. The latest US housing report shows consistent strength in all major housing markets. San Francisco, the Bay Area and New York have lead the way with strong rises. Miami, Florida placed 9th in prices in the US, according to a report from Zillow.
The Miami housing market for 2018 and 2019 buyer profile are very similar to what you’ll see in the Boca Raton South Florida real estate market forecast. Recent events have affected foreign interest.
The biggest event here to affect buyers, and therefore prices, is Hurricane Irma, and several other hurricanes that passed through. If we’ve seen the worst of the impact, then housing is likely in for a good period from 2018 to 2019.
There was a lot of doom and gloom talk about the hurricane’s wiping out the South Florida economy, but it looks like they’ve already been a boon to it. Perhaps money has been diverted from buying new and resale condos to reconstruction of homes in the greater Miami area?
“After analyzing 52,866 job postings from Miami, Tampa, Orlando, etc., we found that not only has hiring rebounded it is actually surging dramatically beyond normal 2017 demand for at least 13 kinds of jobs,” said Kushal Chakrabarti, co-founder and CEO at TalentWorks of Berkley California. – from report floridapolitics.com.
Home Sales Prices Levelling Off
Home prices have consistently risen over the past year. The momentum look strong. Screen capture courtesy of Miamirealtors.com
On the other hand, a big decrease in cash sales show a traditional type of buyer is missing from the market right now.
Miami – Good Time to Buy?
Is this a buyers market? 2+ bedroom condos are decreasing in price and rents have fallen 1.5% in Miami. Contrast this with condo price increases of 8% to 9% in Washington DC, San Jose, and 13% in Denver Colorado and you have some perspective. Prices in Honolulu, Houston, and Chicago have plunged in comparison.
The real estate district of Miami includes the communties of Coral Gable, Cutler Bay, Doral, Homestead, Brickell, Medley, Miami Springs, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrsst, and Sweetwater. It doesn’t not include Fort Lauderdale which is a separate MLS board.
Check out the neighborhood profiles on Neighborhood Scout. They include price appreciation, demographics, and more for Miami’s best neighborhoods and all the districts. Very helpful.
Looking to buy a condo or house in the Miami area? The typical buyer of homes in this region come from around the world, from New York and Toronto, to Dallas and Houston, to Dubai, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, Sao Palo, Rio De Janeiro, to London UK. A good portion of buyers emanate from Venezuela, Columbia, Argentina, Brazil and Canada. Colombia consumers are mosted interested in Miami real estate this fall.
According to Miami Realtors.com, interest in Miami is strongest from buyers in
New York City, NY
Los Angeles, CA
Simi Valley, CA
NAR reports that almost 40% of residential property is purchased by foreign buyers.
Buyers Forecast 2018: The Miami’s Herald’s buyer survey revealed the buyers forecast that residential home values will fare over the next 12 months, 36% believe they’ll rise, a third think prices will remain flat while 21% believe they will depreciate.
The Miami Herald undertook an informative survey of buyer attitudes and the opinions definitely point to the buy side.
Miami’s beauty, incredible climate, business opportunities and proximity to Europe and the Caribbean make it a key position in International business and trade. With condo prices subdued currently, now may be the time to pick up a bargain before prices rocket again.
Book mark this post and return next month for another update.
Walmart and Amazon, 2 of the biggest retailing giants are waging a war in the online grocery sector — a sector which has actually failed to launch in the past 2 decades.
As Amazon speeds toward true monopoly status, it’s set to consume its next retail commerce victim — Costco, who is in the grocery game too. While the battle of Walmart vs Amazon groceries is the focus of this post, and we compare the two, Amazon is waging wars in many sectors which you should know about.
The big story that overshadows everything including the food industry (could there be Amazon restaurants in the future?) is Amazon’s unchecked monopoly power. They’ve positioned themselves in such a way that all their acquisitions seem natural and right.
If Amazon steps into the cryptocurrency/blockchain field, that could be the tipping point. See what Tyler Durden has to say about it over at Zerohedge. Blockchain and Cryptocurrency are huge right now. They threaten the entire banking sector with a secure, crime proof platform with a form of exchange that’s better for everyone. And I won’t be upset about it, after losing another 10% on a US to CAD currency bank transfer yesterday. I wonder if that kind of banking ripoff is a driving force cryptocurrency adoption?
With respect to monopoly, Amazon avoids the penalties of monopoly by riding on the “it’s not us, it’s just that physical retail is disappearing” justification. All the while, they’re opening new physical retail book stores and physical grocery stores.
“Amazon is so powerful, that anything that stands in its way is toast”
Amazon leverages its vast financial clout to crush businesses big and small in many sectors. The only one who could stop them from attaining complete global domination is Donald Trump and he’s suspicious.
Vox’s Matthew Yglesias wrote, “Amazon is opening a bookstore for two big reasons: 1. It can. 2. It is driven by a relentless desire to conquer literally everything in its path.”
Jeff Bezos has Immense Financial Clout to Dominate the Billion Dollar Food Industry
Undaunted and seemingly aware of something we don’t, Jeff Bezos is all in on selling groceries online at Amazon.com. How can we argue now that he’s the wealthiest man in the world with a fortune estimated at $90 Billion. The only thing he hasn’t done yet is walk on water.
The purchase of Whole Foods makes the surge into groceries complete. And Whole Food’s condition matters not, because Amazon can make even the worst failing brands and companies suddenly rocket to market leader status.
With global grocery shopping aleady hitting $50 billion and US grocery shopping online soon to hit $20 Billion, it seems this is where the grocery ecommerce tidal wave is going to hit. It looks like this is a major cultural and marketplace shift that’s occurring.
The entrepreneurial Bezos was a Wall Street banker when he took the risk to move to Seattle to launch Amazon. With only his financing experience and $1 million dredged up from family and friends he started what will soon be the largest company in the world.
Amazon’s key competitive advantage is lower costs with no retail locations and less than 10% of the staffing costs as Walmart. Amazon has infinite selection of products including electronics, clothing, and now food purchased online.
emarketer’s newest report of ecommerce sales in the US for 2017, shows the top ecommerce companies lead by Amazon.
Is online grocery shopping finally about to blossom into the next big thing? Or will grocery shoppers desperately hang onto what might be termed a lifestyle choice?
If you operate an ecommerce or retail shopping website or Facebook store, the matter of Walmart vs Amazon is important. These 2 goliaths have the might to get the supermarket ecommerce ball rolling, and roll right over your business. And for those who live online, and don’t like retail stores, this could be the start of something really good for you.
Amazon is on the hunt for a new 2nd headquarter location and the front runners in that race include Toronto.
Online Shopping: Trying Hard but Slow to Launch
While online grocery shopping hasn’t been a hit, the cultural, demographic, technological, and financial drivers may now be in place to make online grocery shopping a standard feature of people’s lives in the US, Canada and the UK.
However, I’m sure you enjoy shopping for your own food, picking out unbruised apples, getting the cereal on special, and just buying whatever is your fancy at that moment. Do we go to the grocery store to enjoy some spontaneity and impulse buying? Can online shopping provide that emotional rush?
I’ll bet the supermarket chains have you coming back on a frequent basis almost like it was a convenience store. Retail shopping has a social, people element too which adds to resistance to online shopping. It takes time to change, yet the youngest generations will not view supermarkets like their parents and grandparents did.
Supermarket eCommerce Ready to Rocket
There’s one key reason in particular why online groceries are ready to rocket: Walmart vs Amazon. If both sink tens of billions into the competition, it’ll sweep all other supermarket brands, retailers and distributors into the fray.
However, are the smaller companies ready, or will your favorite local grocer come to an unfortunate fate? Amazon’s success online is notable earning it ratings as the most innovative company in the world. Innovation is everything now.
Sharing is Good for Your Social Health
Use the Share Bar to Let Your friends chime on on the Online Shopping Revolution
Does Home Delivery Need be a Key Part of Online Shopping?
Online grocery shopping and home delivery have been around for a long time. In fact, Grocery Gateway in Canada was launched in 1997 and is still running. Grocery chain Longo’s bought it in 2004 and it’s their online shopping service. Grocery Gateway’s delivery trucks have been a common sight for those in the Metro Toronto region.
Adhering to the old home delivery model was a mistake and these companies are recognizing that.
Grocery Gateway Celebrates 20 Years
Digital Grocery Shopping in the US
In the US, Home Grocer was perhaps the original online grocery shopping service launched in 1997 with more than $400 million in financing. Well, long story short, Home Grocer wasn’t sustainable. But why did they fail? Attitudes, habits, technology? We must know why and what they all plan to do about it.
Okay here’s a little spoiler about that reluctance below.
According to Statista, in 2016, just 5% of U.S. consumers were buying online. In total, U.S. online grocery sales amounted to about 7 billion U.S. dollars in 2015 and are expected to rise to 18 billion U.S. dollars by 2020. That might only amount to 15% of all consumers who will buy online within the next 2 years.
In the UK, online grocery shopping has his hit 7% marketshare and is domainted by Tesco.
That’s still a small portion of the enormous supermarket grocery sales volume in the US, Canada and UK. So it begs the question about when an online tsunami will begin and how big will it be? And should food companies get serious about marketing and selling online?
Here’s Kroger’s online shopping page. Does it appeal to you?
The Digitally Engaged Food Shopper Report
The Digitally Engaged Food Shopper Report is a comprehensive look into the behaviors, motivations and expectations of the digitally engaged food shopper. It’s produced by the Food Marketing Institute (FMI) and Nielsen Research. They had this to say about the rise of grocery eCommerce.
“While we are more connected than ever to influence what shoppers buy, the window to influence those moments is narrowing… FMI and its members will need to seize the opportunity to harness new skills and collaborate more seamlessly than ever before to effectively reach these digitally savvy food shoppers. We’re building the tools to help our members assess where they are in their connected commerce strategies.” said Mark Baum, chief collaboration officer at FMI. — Digitally Engaged Food Shopper.
From the report, it’s suggested these 5 factors below will drive the latest push to online shopping:
Multi-channel shopping: shoppers are increasingly buying more of their groceries across channels. 23% of American households are buying food online today and 60% of these consumers are forecasted spend over a quarter of their food dollars online in 10 years.
Digital Experimentation: Grocery retailers and manufacturers are now sincerrely experimenting with business models and technologies to find their way online yet their path to success isn’t paved.
Grocery Saturation: Grocery shopping will reach digital maturity and saturation faster than publishing or banking.
Middle Store Migration: Middle store categories are already migrating online and this migration is expected to continue.
Young & Digital: Younger, newer and more engaged digital shoppers are expected to grocery related digital technologies and will hasten digital grocery shopping further.
What they may have missed is the in-store retail shopping experience and prices. If Amazon prices fall and the brick and mortar store shopping experience deteriorates as it has in many retail stores, shoppers may start shopping online in bigger numbers. Urban intensification and overpopulation could make shopping at a big supercenter a big pain too.
Who Will Want to Shop Online?
This graphic from Nielsen’s Future of Grocery Report reveals how most age groups are open to online shopping but that it’s a little more welcome to those under 35.
Are You Ready for Online Grocery Shopping?
A select number of companies are offering online grocery shopping already. What may have caused issues in the past, was the belief that home delivery had to be the focus of the service. Home delivery it turns out is an expensive proposition often resulting in higher prices and food spoilage. With margins so thin in the grocery sector, supermarkets and online grocery sites are focusing on the “click and pick up” service.
Loblaws, a Canadian supermarket chain is focused on this opportunity. As you can see here, they are promoting their sharp looking new smartphone shopping app.
Will Amazon Supercharge the Move to Online Grocery Shopping?
The results of a poll reported by AOL, suggested that 75% of online shoppers rarely buy groceries online. 60% of those polled said they never buy groceries online or do so just a few times a year. Based on that account, you’d have to wonder why Amazon is ready to sink $13.7 billion into the online grocery market and why Walmart is ready to compete with them.
Major Supermarkets Who Have Entered the eCommerce Grocery Era
Here’s a list of major online grocery shopping sites in the US and Canada who offer online shopping and/or home delivery services:
Which of these do you believe will survive the coming era of digital grocery shopping?
Grocery Wars: Walmart Vs Amazon
Many pundits are suggesting this market will definitely be owned by Walmart and Amazon, who are pouring money into their ecommerce operations. They may also feel that Krogers, Loblaws, and others simply won’t be able to get their act together fast enough online to compete.
Krogers has a huge market share in the US and is unlikely to fall by the wayside quickly. With online adoption growing slowly, Kroger has plenty of time to figure it out. Or do they?
Who Will Win: Amazon or Walmart?
Amazon caters to a wealthier crowd and the products they sell are more expensive, so they will win during good times. Walmart sells the basics to the lower income crowd and they will survive a recession.
If the US economy continues strong, Amazon looks to be the clear winner. And with its innovative and profitable Amazon Web Services and venture into artificial intelligence guided shopping, autonomous vehicles, the company is the clear leader for the next 5 years.
Amazon and other grocery brands will be aided by AI marketing software with its data collection, content testing, clickpath assessing, and future behavior predicting capabilities. AI compensates for many ecommerc weaknesses.
For the supermarket chains, retailers, manufacturers and SMB’s who sell via online, a new commitment to digital marketing and ecommerce might be required. And since some believe they’ve balked so far because it would dry up business for their distributors and retailers who buy from them. Amazon has no brick and mortar operations really and worker/reseller resistance isn’t a problem for them.
“The need for retailers and manufacturers to know the differences around how consumers shop online versus in-store is greater than ever before. Analytics will be key for retailers and manufacturers to understand the digitally engaged food shopper on a deeper level.
Beyond unified insights that connect the dots across consumer interaction and platforms, the winning strategy will turn metrics into action steps towards effective digital engagement.” – from the Digitally Engaged Food Shopper report. Longos appears to be using Unata of Toronto who provide a white label cloud based platform for grocers. It includes ecommerce websites, digital couponing, customer loyalty programs, 1 to 1 automated personalization, payment gateway integration and a lot more. Very impressive.
And Unata’s CEO Diego Maniloff was once a research assistant at The Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the University of Chicago. There’s no doubt he would be in the process of augmenting Unata with AI. It would be fascinating to see which customer journey issues they’re trying to solve with AI.
How Do you Attract and Engage Online Grocery Shoppers
Grocery consumers are just like any other online consumer. They want the right products, good service, best prices, discounts, great selection, and a friction free customer experience. Some eCommerce retailers pay a lot of attention to removing friction with superfast websites, optimized shopping carts, and of course good analytics.
It’s Personal – This Shopping Thing
Because grocery shopping is such a personal experience to consumers, online ecommerce marketers likely will have to pick and choose opportunities to get the new online service seen and used. Any place in the store where there is big friction, fatigue, disappointment, etc. would be a good time to present the online service.
If we go back to the shopper survey results, we know the biggest reasons people don’t want to shop online is that they don’t trust they’ll get the clean, high quality produce they can visually select and touch in the store. And they feel they won’t get to find the instore bargains themselves.
They also think they have time to shop, so time savings and other activities they could otherwise be doing are good to mention. And show them how they can use food to enliven their home social life so they don’t use the store as a social thing. And they’ll want reassurance they’re reducing their food bills.
Online promotional strategy and tactics are an art/science and increasingly driven by data. In order to find out which of these tips below actually work, you can do simple and multivariate testing. This is where Amazon’s artificial intelligence capability give them an edge in the battle with Walmart. Discovering which works best and knowing what shoppers are likely to buy next is a huge advantage. That’s why AI marketing software is so vital now to marketing and sales.
Here’s a lengthy ist of grocery store ecommerce promotional tactics to boost sales at your online retail food store:
Give them a big warm welcome coming into the online shopping area
Assure shoppers that they can see and get any discounted item that’s actually present in the store
Focus on safe products people are already buying online
Focus on the assurance that produce will be highest quality (no bruises and bad spots) and is ready on time for pickup
Use product quality trust marks where product quality is very important to the shopper
Focus on meaningful cost savings
Focus on price discounts
Crowd the page with items so they can’t justify with “not enough selection”
Use words such as quick, fast, convenient, time-saving, modern, smart, discounts, savings, deals, and fun at home, delicious etc to build a consistent word theme that gets your value proposition across
Use a “buy now” button on the lower right
Use a centrally located search bar so they can find their favorites right away
Focus on people who are busy such as moms with kids who must take the kids into the store
Focus your imagery on kitchens, fridges, cars and the home environment — not the retail store!
Use big, higher resolution photos done expertly by a web graphics expert because shoppers are highly visual about what they’re going to eat
Show pictures of juice bursting out of oranges or other fruit because it is elicits the senses and may even active their memories of the smell of certain foods
Show pictures of milk, juice, wine being poured into glasses
Use a few videos such as how to peel an orange, cut a pineapple, or
Show ingredient lists and health info
Encourage shoppers to share on social media (good to associate the food with their family)
Give discounts to shoppers who give reviews on Google+ or Facebook
Offer a free samples product (e.g., hand cleaner) with purchases over $20
Show a picture of your delivery truck or the pick up area
Eliminate their post purchase anxiety by offering money back guarantees (and let them peruse their food before they actually pay for it)
Use warm descriptive language of products
Use drop down cascading menus for quick access to all products
Offer them a 1% discount if they get to the store within 15 minutes
Use medium sized, round fonts for product descriptions
You’ve Got Front Row Seats to the Amazon Vs Walmart Showdown!
Enjoy this visual comparison of the two retailers provided by Minyanville.com.
2018 looks like it’s going to be a more stable period for home prices from Boston to Miami to Los Angeles. Limited residential property, stable employment picture, and rising mortgage rates should keep things in balance in 2018.
What’s dampening that price flame is that prices are too high for Millennials (thus powering up the rental property investment market) and high mortgage rates.
Home prices are anticipated to increase 3.9 percent and existing home sales are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent to 5.46 million homes. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5 percent due to higher expectations for inflationary pressure in the year ahead — Realtor.com Research
Case-Shiller reported a spate of very positive news regarding the state of the US economy and the housing outlook for 2017 to 2020. Housing is boosted by positive indicators coming from two separate reports published on Trading Economics, include:
US housing starts rose to a 9 year high in October 2017
US consumer sentiment rose to a 6 month high
US durable good orders rose
Job vacancies to fall 500,000 by 2020
US GDP will rise 2 Trillion by 2020
From the chart below, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, building permits, housing starts, home sales, will rise slightly next year and significantly grow to higher levels in 2020. Home prices may rise another 10% by 2020 according to their forecast. Still a good time to look for houses for sale.
Case-Shiller also sees the Fed raising interest rates and that US inflation rate will rise. These estimates may not take into account the intent of the Trump government.
And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.” That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.
Overall, it’s a good report that has something for consumers and entrepreneurs and business. Read the full forecast here.
The US housing market 2017 report is positive and this report from the Urban Land institute is positive too. Sure there are variables, especially in different regions and cities across the US, yet a lowered deficit sends a positive message to startups and small businesses that US businesses will have an easier time competing in the US. Looking to invest in rental income property in 2017?
Best Cities to Invest?
Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities 2017 to invest in rental property. In this chart with data from Realtor.com and Kiplinger, I’ve highlighted what might be the best cities to discuss with your real estate investment advisor. I’m not advising anything, just to point out the advantages of diversifying your investment portfolio to cities that are strong and ones that could become strong.
Cities such as Springfield MA, Sacramento CA, or Detroit might pay off in 2020 to 2025. For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?
Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Salt Lake City, UT
San Diego County, CA
Providence-RI Warwick, MA
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
Greensboro-High Point, NC
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Tampa-St. Petes, FL
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
Boise City, ID
Colorado Springs, CO
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
New Haven-Milford, CT
Kansas City, MO KS
Augusta-Richmond County, GA
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN
Oklahoma City, OK
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.
New Orleans-Metairie, LA
El Paso, TX
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA
Austin-Round Rock, TX
St. Louis, Mo
Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL
Little Rock, AK
Des Moines, IA
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
Baton Rouge, LA
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com
From a report in the Pacific Coast Business Times, Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast is quoted as saying that economic indicators do not point to a recession this year or next.
Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame, said The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it’s not running on fumes, he said.
Schiepp said “We really don’t have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don’t see any recession — none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them.” Schniepp spoke to an audience at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village LA, during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.