US Housing Market Crash 2018 2019 and Beyond

Housing Market Crash 2018?

Despite the strength of the US economy, growing employment and wages, a high number of investors and homebuyers are concerned about a housing market crash in 2018 or 2019.

Take a good look at the crash factors below and the national housing market forecast along with predictions for major urban housing markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston.




Trump Volatility: No Telling Who He’ll Point at Next: Canada, China, Mexico? Trade wars can fester quickly like a wild fire.

Certainly the recent comments of the President that “Trade Wars are Good” don’t help settle the volatility in the stock markets. Strong inflation and cost of living rises, potential trade wars, along with high mortgage rates are serious threats.

In this post we try to take an objective look at the unthinkable. At least, it’s unthinkable for some that booming markets in Los Angeles, San Fransciso, Sacramento, San Jose, Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Charlotte, Boston and Miami could possibly collapse. Is the Toronto housing bubble (worst in world now) the future for US cities?



Going back to 2007, did anyone suspect what was about to happen?

When Will Local Market Bubbles Burst?

If you look at the forecasts for all the bubbled up city markets such as San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston you’ll likely think back to prices before the last crash.

Are you spooked about the real estate market in 2018 or 2019? Is the market sufficiently over heated? When will interest rates become a problem? The recent jobs report was strong, although wages aren’t overheating. Supply is coming online.

Take a look at the 12 Top Crash Factors listed below do help decide whethery buying a house or rental apartment is still a wise decision.

Check the state of the US housing market right now and 2018 forecast.

The recent stock market correction gives us pause for thought about how volatility can factor into a housing crash. However, the housing market is healthy with construction rising and it will be a long time before demand is satisfied.

Mathematicians have studied housing bubbles, such as The University of Pennsylvania, and their HOUSING BUBBLE STRUCTURAL MODEL AND HYPOTHESES models couldn’t figure it out. The factors they studied do play a role, but housing bubbles and crashes are likely a cultural phenomenon (outside of major recessions).  It comes down to values, dreams and panic emotions.

There are some financial market players who make their fortune on crashes and if consumemrs are miffed about the direction of the market, it would be fertile ground for crash talk.

As long as Americans are employed with rising wages and growing GDP, housing crashes aren’t likely. Yet, a few experts such as Harry Dent are convinced a housing market disaster looms in the next few years. Even Anthony Robbins is speaking up about it in a video below.



A growing number of homeowners and buyers are talking housing bubble. With prices stable, economy strong, and demand persistent, why would so many feel the market could crash? Is buyer and seller pessimism enough to launch a sudden collapse?

Have a good look at the current housing market along with the residential markets in cities such as Boston, Houston, Seattle, Sacramento, and Los Angeles. If you or your family are considering buying a home or condo, it’s wise to understand the macroecomic and human factors.

There’s two camps on the 2018 crash issue. First those who see the unbelievable rate of economic growth in the US and believe it has to end; and secondly, those who see only positive signals and the solid political footing of the Trump administration in its resolution to bring good paying jobs and industry back to the US.

Even if the US is headed for greater things, it doesn’t preclude the possibility of a major market correction in housing. But for housing to crash, a series of factors would have to align.

12 Housing Crash Factors

  1. excessively high home prices via a price bubble
  2. increasing underwater mortgages
  3. fast rising interest mortgage rates
  4. slowing economy and sudden rises in unemployment
  5. wage growth not keeping up with home prices
  6. tax changes and geo-political shifts
  7. trade deal disturbance
  8. a stock market bubble and volatility
  9. high level of consumer debt affecting debt servicing
  10. cost of living rises
  11. risky low rate mortgages for new home buyers
  12. high oil and energy prices

We might add a very strong US dollar to the mix too. A strong dollar makes US exports too expensive thus threatening jobs here and making imports more attractive.

Even though the housing markets have substantial strength, the world is a very connected place. If China and other economies were to collapse, it might be enough to send the stock markets and real estate markets plummeting. Dent says New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston are the riskiest markets.

What did say Mellon Bank’s expert say back in 2014, about the source of recessions?

2018 will be a big year: Economist from CNBC.

Neil Kashkari talks extensively about false prophets (Alan Greenspan) and the sources of market bubbles such as $100 barrel oil, and other uncontrollable situations.  He says market bubbles and crashes are very complex and the source is often completely unexpected. Could the oil sheiks take the US economy down again? Could China do it? Is the $20 Trillion debt a threat? Or is just the end of a bull run in the stock market?

However, in those cases where debt is fueling the asset value increase, a correction could trigger financial instability, because banks might take huge losses and potentially fail.” — Neil Kashkari.

If you’ve purchased a pricey home or condo, or you’re considering buying a property in the overheated Los Angeles housing market, San Francisco housing market or those in New York, Seattle, San Jose, San Diego, Portland, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, or other hot real estate markets, you’re likely feeling some nerves of late.

The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.

In San Francisco, the risk of a bubble burst in 2018/2019 is highest and that city is ranked number 1 as highest for a crash. Prices in the San Francisco Bay area housing market are extremely high and if the tech sector does have an extended downtick with rising mortgage rates, perhaps the forecasted slide could start.

Top 10 Cities Most Likely to Experience a Housing Crash

From a report in AOL.com here are the top ten US Cities most likely to experience a crash:

  1. Portland, Oregon
  2. Charleston, SC
  3. Buffalo, NY
  4. Fresno, CA
  5. Los Angeles, CA
  6. Dallas, TX
  7. Salt Lake City, UT
  8. Austin, TX
  9. San Jose, CA
  10. San Francisco, CA

Interesting list, dominated by California and Texas, which have been doing well economically. With oil prices rising, I wonder if that will calm the situation in Dallas and Houston? A good number of people are inquiring about a Florida housing crash as well, yet Miami isn’t the whole Florida market.

Tyler Durden of zerohedge.com discusses in a post how homeowners are burdened in debt and unable to refinance their mortgages. He points to his key statistic that mortgage owners will not be refinancing their mortgages in 2017 which points in the direction of bubble bursts and crashes.

This chart below paints a very scary picture, that it’s worse than 2006.  Not only does it correlate 2017 with 2006, it shows that we’re up high on a dangerous cliff in some cities. However, most cities aren’t in this situation, so if a collapse in California, New York and Texas were to occur, other cities might survive okay.

There are other mitigating factors too such as the strengths in the economy, foreign investors buying property, and rising optimism and confidence since Trump won the election.  At this point, we’re wondering if Obama and Clinton are relieved not to have to face the mess they created? Trump seems to be up to the task and yet, he has purportedly said he would enjoy watching the crash, even if it takes down some of his real estate empire. Is this just a comment on high home prices?

The cost and availability of credit provide fuel for a bubble to inflate, inviting even less experienced, or less credit-worthy players into the game, all of whom believe they will sell their recently purchased assets at ever-increasing prices — from a CNBC post.

That credit is being freed up in 2018/2019, but will it fast enough to create huge instability if mortgage rates don’t rise precipitously? Here’s Seattlebubble’s reasoning on why we may not be in a housing bubble/crash situation:

  • still lots of all-cash buyers, with few zero-down buyers
  • no crazy neg-am, fog-a-mirror, interest-only home loans like last time
  • interest rates remaining low
  • affordability index not as bad
  • buyers and lenders more cautious

Home prices aren’t as high as they were in 2006/2007 and mortgage rates are much lower:





No one will dispute that there are big risks but for 2017, everything looks to be under control.

Are you looking for the best cities to invest in real estate? The top 80 cities to buy rental properties gives you a peak at the potential of rental property investment.

Is this the right year to buy a rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2017 and is investing in real estate a wise decision?

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Disclaimer: this post/information is meant as a discussion of housing and investing issues, ideas and trends, not as advice for investment. Please use good judgement and professional advice if you’re investing in any market whether stocks or real estate.

Florida Housing Forecast 2018 2019 | Real Estate Trends in Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Housing Report 2018

A perfect storm of demand, supply and economic factors are making Florida an excellent a great place to buy real estate. See the price projections for the major cities below.

The housing market in Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Panama City, Sarasota, Naples, Fort Launderdale, and even Boca Raton are compelling real estate investment value propositions for snowbirds and other buyers in North America. As you’ll see, sunny and warm Florida home prices are quite reasonable.

Interest in buying Florida properties from buyers seems to grow and wane through the weeks and months. Although January and February are a lull in demand, the Florida economy is too strong to see that continue. The recent tax changes may discourage speculative investment for a while but buyers will be back in the spring.




The Florida housing market in 2017 was characterized by a lack of new construction, big price reductions on new condos, a disappearance of South American property buyers, softened house and condo prices, and of course, low taxation rates. If the glut of condo building in Miami is now complete, then we may see upward pressure on condo prices.

Choosing Your Florida Home Style

The variety of homes in Florida is astonishing.  From modern 3 bedroom bungalows to condos in towering buildings to quaint beach houses to spacious multi-million dollar mansions, you can have your dream life, walk the beaches, shop for hours, and never have to shovel snow.  For a lot of buyers, that’s a compelling value proposition.

With more babyboomers hoping to retire somewhere nice, and who have been holding onto their old home because they have nowhere to go, will find Florida a compelling value proposition in real estate investment.

The Houston real estate market, San Diego Real Estate market, Seattle real estate market, Vancouver real estate market and even the Costa Rica Real Estate market are also preferred destinations for retirees and those looking for luxury homes.

PWC in its new major US housing report names Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach as the 3rd highest target destination from migrating people from other cities in the US.

The luxury real estate market was hit hard in Florida, and there is an oversupply of luxury homes. However, interest and sales are expected to rebound (From US and soon Canadian buyers as the CAD falls), and homes for sale in Fort Lauderdale, Naples, and Miami are expected to rise.

8 Things to Consider Before you Buy a Home in Florida

Whether you’re buying a second home/vacation home or you’re considering moving to warm, sunny Florida, consider a few matter beforehand:

  1. can you afford to live in the region or neighborhoods you have targeted?
  2. which cities and neighborhoods are safe and pleasant to live in?
  3. summers are hot and humid. Can you take the heat and the indoor life?
  4. do you like golf, fishing, walking the beach, boating, and water sports?
  5. how well can you run your business from Florida and how much back and forth travel will you need to do?
  6. what is the actual cost of living?
  7. how much will your mortgage payments be for the next 10 years?
  8. is there a true demand for your area of work/profession?

Some people love Florida and some don’t like it at all. If you could live there during the winter only, as many snowbirds from New York, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Washington do, it’s might be a no brainer. All you’d have to focus on is finding a home and getting it at a bearable price.




Florida’s $1 Trillion Dollar Economy

Florida’s economic performance was outstanding again in 2017 which is why it was attracting so many new residents and home buyers. Orlando’s population growth was 18% over the last and disposable income growth over the last 5 years was an amazing 12.8%.

South Florida’s population hit 6 million for the first time, and Miami Dade hit 2.7 million residents. Tampa Sarasota region was in the top 10 nationally for population growth and Orlando saw 48,000 new residents arrive.

That’s generated strong demand for housing and rental units in South Florida.

As reported in Tampabay.com, the Florida economy will reach $1 Trillion this year and $1.074 trillion in 2019. Florida is an important state having 5% of the US economy but 10% of new jobs. Tourism and housing were the key industries.

Hurricane Irma and the destruction of the citrus crop have suppressed the Florida economy and the state has difficulty attracting skilled workers. Wages do lag, yet real estate in Florida overall is very reasonably priced. Only Texas is a better bargain.

With the Florida economy rolling along nicely, there’s no reason to believe there is a downside to buying property in the Sunshine State. And sunshine is a key benefit for most buyers here.

Interest in Orlando and Tampa real estate has been particularly strong and that’s likely due to the lower prices. Even homes in Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale are half the price as those in Miami.

However the economies in Tampa and Orlando are holding their own and drawing in new residents due to lower than expected prices on condos and homes.

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Effects

The experts are still struggling with the affects of the Feds tax bill, amidst a housing slowdown and slightly rising interest rates.

What the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act does mean:

  1. sales of homes between $750,000 to $1 million will slow because loan interest isn’t tax deductible any longer
    purchases from New York buyers seems to be growing
  2. income tax cuts for almost everyone means people will have more money to buy real estate and pay mortgages
  3. the reform retains sellers’ capital gains exemption, which excludes the first $500,000 in profits for couples and the first $250,000 for single filers

Let’s not forget Florida’s benefit of no state tax. Combine that with the reduced federal tax cuts, and companies that are bringing their manufacturing and head offices back to the US should find Florida an ideal place to come home to.

Florida Home Prices

According to Zillow, home prices in Florida average $216,000 which is up 7.3% from last year. They’re expected to rise more slowly in 2018 at 2.5%. By the end of 2018, the average home price will be $221,000. That has to look good to home sellers in Boston and New York, as well as Canadian buyers in Toronto, who have home values that rival the highest in Miami.

Chart courtesy of Zillow.com. Comparison of home prices with California, Texas, New York and Nevada 2018

Florida Home Prices and Predictions

City Zillow Home Price
Zillow Price End of 2018
Miami $295,400 302000
Hialeah $200,700 247000
Fort Myers $193,100 209000
Saint Petersburg $163,500 197000
Tampa $163,000 204000
Tallahassee $161,600 172000
Orlando $155,400 184000
Jacksonville $140,300 168000
Pensacola $121,000 143000
Fort Lauderdale $293,200 292000
Boca Raton $328,500 326000
Naples $330,800 330000
Sarasota $273,200 273000
Miami Beach $381,100 365,000
Kissimmee $174,600 183000
Port St Lucie $204,000 211000
Cape Coral 220200 226000
Pembroke Pines 288900 289000
Clearwater 213800 220000

When is the best time to buy real estate?  Find out more about the best investments in 2018 including investing in real estate in 2018.

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Canadian Economic Forecast 2018: IMF and OECD Gives Canadian Economy Two Thumbs Up!

The Canadian Economic Forecast

The International Monetary Fund says Canada is the leading G7 Country

How odd is it in 2018, that a country on the verge of trade wars, real estate collapse in its major cities, flat wage growth, mediocre job growth, merciless consumer debt, and a sagging national housing market would be cited as the G7’s darling child?

In a new report just released, the IMF likes Canada’s economic situation and they’ve forecasted some lofty economic growth rates. Quite a rosy prediction for 2018 and beyond

Their confidence could impact the Toronto real estate forecast, | Calgary Housing Market Forecast and the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2018. And it could end the talk of a real estate market crash and begin to attract foreign investment into Canada once again.

Growth of 3.6% to 3.7% Predicted

For entrepreneurs, mortgage agents, realtors, manufacturers, retailers, builders, renovators, homebuyers and banks, this is a positive signal about growth ahead. Trump is looking to renegotiate NAFTA which doesn’t mean shutting out Canada.  The negative media hype is ridiculous. Even with renegotiation, Canadian small business has a good opportunity. If Trump has an issue, it’s likely with the multinationals who continue to rule everything including politics.

Despite sluggish growth for its major trading partner, the IMF believes Canada is poised for growth of 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2018. That has to sound good for job hunters, real estate agents, mortgage agents, house buyers, and business development managers alike.




Underpinning all the optimism is the IMF’s belief in a broad-based global economic upswing. Does this mean the world has adjusted to US trade protectionism, or is Trump actaully unable to do anything about the US situation? The IMF points to Trump’s inability to get new tax laws passed and to the level of optimism globally. With Trump’s new tax bill passed, the US stock market could boom for at least one more year, and that’s good news for the Canadian economy.

This might come as quite a surprise to most of us who haven’t heard such a rosy forecast for the world as a whole. However, much of the uncertainty of housing and stock markets was of a global nature and it may be subsiding.

An earlier report from the OECD set Canada’s growth rate at 3.2% for 2018. Strangely, although Canada is believed to be the leader, overall global growth is set for 3.7%, a half percent above Canada’s forecast rate of growth.

The OECD is also calling on Canada to ease foreign investment restrictions and ease the Toronto/Vancouver housing crisis. Given that Canada is mired in the lowest levels of foreign investment ever, it would be healthy for the Vancouver and Toronto housing and condo markets along with the TSX stock market if such investment was allowed to flow.




The OECD also cites Canada’s lack of productivity as a big concern, however it appears the country has been able to make use of its assets to generate growth.

A BNN poll found that most viewers believe tax rates and the NAFTA deal are the key worries about the Canadian economy.

Canada’s Economic Facts

  • growth in 2nd quarter of 2017 was 5%
  • household spending was up 4.6% in June (YoY)
  • job growth was 186,000 over the first half of 2017
  • exports expanded 9.6%
  • central bank only expected to raise interest rate slightly
  • national trade deficit increased to $3.4 billion in August

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San Diego Real Estate Forecast

San Diego’s Real Estate Market

It’s hard not to forecast San Diego as a good housing market from 2017 through 2020 just as it is in LA, San Francisco and the Bay area. Buy if you can find anyone willing to sell.

The gorgeous climate, wonderful lifestyle, improving California economy, increased immigration of workers here, beefed up military spending, and proximity to Mexico and the Asian block countries means it is perfectly positioned for big housing demand and very high home prices. 




There’s no better place to relocate to if you’re established or your business is doing well. San Diego will give you back everything you give it and more. I’ve had amazing clients in San Diego.

San Diego is an exciting place to live and for real estate investment. Similar to South Florida, it’s younger buyers in the US and foreign buyers that are eyeing property here. And while many experts call for only moderate price increases, you’ll see the stats below are suggesting higher San Diego home prices and decreased availability. It’s the right time to sell your San Diego home.




What’s San Diego’s achilles heel? Lack of housing development and urban intensification. Another problem might be politicians trying to suppress growth in this little piece of heaven.  But San Diego’s smack dab in the middle of everything. They’ll be under extreme pressure to stop the resistance and net migration into SD County.

Political Resistance to Population Growth

In the face of huge demand, politicians will be under the gun about putting the Kaibosh on SD’s amazing real estate fortune. This factor will ensure prices will rocket out of control.  Are local SD County politicians and the California government doing much to grow housing developments inland? Will the exodus of illegal Mexicans ease the issue? Are illegals buying homes?

Demand for homes in San Diego County will never subside. It is one the best places on earth and prices will stay high. For homeowners here, it is on of those infrequent opportunities to cash out and make a killing. You only need a dream and somewhere to go.

Here’s an easy to understand Forecast of San Diego’s real estate future.

San Diego’s Real Estate Forecast for 2017 is Rosy

And that’s despite the negative outlooks of some toward all of SoCal. February 2017 saw significant price increases (e.g., La Jolla up 29% year over year for detached houses and 55% for townhouse condos) and it’s driven by the California housing shortage crisis. Because of that, we’ll see big home prices right through the spring. The same outlook applies to Los Angeles, Orange County, San Jose, and the San Francisco Bay Area.

This graphics below shows housing is in short supply and affordability is plummeting. It’s an emergency situation that forecasts big rent increases and strong home price growth. Since home building takes time especially in a heavily regulated environment, there’s little chance of diminished demand. With incomes increasing and millennials coming into their family building years, the stage is set for rocketing prices.

The Three Tiered Market in SD

This excellent chart below courtesy of First Tuesday, shows how demand for lower priced properties is almost a separate world. It’s this more steep tier that is most likely to see huge price growth. Will this turn into a San Diego housing bubble as part of a US housing crash?  The 2007 real estate crash saw big drops in luxury home prices in SD and this time around, we have to wonder if foreign money will vacate fast if the market heads downward. My opinion is that California and San Diego are pretty strong and there’s no other compelling destination for foreign money.

3 Tiered Real Estate Chart Courtesy of first tuesday

It’s an excellent opportunity for rental property investors who want to capitalize on the severe housing and rental property shortage. Property owners near the I5 with waterfront views in La Jolla, Del Mar, Claremont, Solana Beach, and Encinitas may not have much to be concerned with.

As long as the Trump ecconomic surge continues, San Diego’s outlook should be bright.




Should I Sell My San Diego Home?

You could hang onto your home for another 20%, but if enough San Diegans do keep their home off the market due to greed, the repercussions could be serious. This holding onto property is happening all over North America. With nowhere to go, there’s likely not going to be a big selloff anytime soon so price rises could elevate. To ease this crisis, governments could offer incentives for home sellers to let go of their property? For sure, new housing will not ease this crisis. What will make a difference is Realtors convincing people to sell their homes and move on with their lives.

Screen Capture courtesy of SDAR

The housing shortage is a  global phenomena, not just in San Diego. All the in demand cities are seeing foreign that’s fleeing other countries boost up prices in New York, Palm Beach, Toronto, and Miami. The new problem we may face is a shortage of construction workers, which could raise construction costs. That will put upward pressure on resale home prices.

 Considering Buying or Investing in Real Estate in San Diego?

Here’s 13 factors you should be weighing when buying or selling in San Diego County:

  1. Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases
  2. Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed
  3. Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening
  4. Down Payment and mortgage rules – Banks are withdrawing FHA loans however some are offering downpayments as low as 3%
  5. Regional Employment – Very low and falling
  6. Buyer Income – low yet rising quickly
  7. Home Prices – High and rising – out of reach for most buyers – many consider San Diego County homes grossly over-priced
  8. Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and their income is growing fast
  9. Number of Renters – increasing fast
  10. New Home Construction: slow (100k to 140k per year) and illegal workers being chased out
  11. Economic-Foreign Trade – Trump expected to raise US GDP and add fuel to incomes and home prices
  12. President Trump – uncertainty of what Trump will create and how much interference he’ll see
  13. Taxes on Sale of Home – Tax situation is great for sellers

What will the San Diego Real Estate Market Look Like in 2017?

2016 was a great year and there’s no reason to believe the market will falter. In fact, San Diego’s situation is very similar to the Los Angeles real estate forecast.  Typically, SD’s housing market doesn’t pick up until after the main markets have grown. Normally, it takes years before demand for high end luxury homes reaches speed here in SD.

The market right now is in waiting mode for US buyers to get richer – particularly Millenials entering their family raising years.  Sure there are South American Buyers looking for homes right now, as well as Russians, but that demand could dry up soon.

With the new Trump Era fully engaged, job growth will pick up steam in Southern California. This will drive growth in places like Escondido, Del Mar, Oceanside, Carlsbad, and San Diego.

San Diego Home Prices

Take a look at San Diego’s historic price chart courtesy of SDAR. Detached home prices are up $300,000 in the last 4.5 years. We’ll be looking at similar price growth rates in 2017.  Many experts are commenting more on a possible housing crash, which would include San Diego.

If you’re thinking of selling, this might be the best time to contact a San Diego Realtor and begin the process. There is no vertical price rise on the graph, or glut of first time buyers with underwater mortgages, but 29% price rises in La Jolla might be a signal of trouble ahead.

My guess is that we’re in for good times for a while in San Diego. Make sure you review the Los Angeles report and the Toronto Real estate forecast to give you a better understanding the global foreign buyer demand that’s affecting all markets. US home builders should  be optimistic about demand and put pressure on legislators to free up land and offer incentives.




Case Shiller’s home price index for San Diego is 229 compared to the national average of 185.

Screen Capture courtesy of SDAR Stats
Screen capture courtesy of SDAR Stats

According to SDAR, home prices are up 6% to an average of $540,000. The real estate trends reflect the general demand as shown in the Los Angeles Market report.  A sharp rise in real income, combined with lower unemployment, rising GDP, and fewer listings available points to higher prices in 2017, 2018 and 2019.  But things are heating up as we saw in La Jolla where detached homes rose an astonishing 29% to an average of 2.26 million. These rates are only seen in other cities such as Toronto.

Screen capture courtesy of SDAR Stats
Screen capture courtesy of SDAR Stats

 

About Business: Should San Diego be a Startup Haven?

Forbes published their top cities for startups report and they chose San Diego as the best place to launch a new business. You probably wouldn’t get too much argument that a medical and security software startup would thrive here, but is SD better than silicon valley at anything else? Blair Giesen of Thevoiceofsandiego.com is a little skeptical that investors are here and that San Diego is a tech hub. But don’t tell that to San Diego Startup Week who just had their 5 day convention. And conventions are one big advantage San Diego does have.

 

San Diego Has All the Charm and a Good Economy – But are You Communicating That Well Enough?

California was just named the 5th largest economy in the world and it’s had a great year in 2016. That’s amazing, but does San Diego’s small business and startup growth compare to that of LA and silicon valley? Some of the data below suggests that despite growth in manufacturing and professional services, talented workers may not want to move to SD county. With the Trump presidency firmly launched, San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles may be headed for boom times.

Source: Wallet Hub




Which industries are best for startup businesses in San Diego?

bestbusinesses

Team Up with the Right Partners

Should San Diego Chamber of Commerce and San Diego Regional Economic Development be doing more?  Although some startups have found success, it isn’t easy to succeed especially in digital marketing against tough competition. Companies would be wise to get connected with companies and investors in other cities, perhaps Canada or the UK to build a wider base of success. By networking and accessing those components that don’t and never will exist in San Diego, SD might be able to compete equally with LA, NY, Boston and Silicon Valley. What shouldn’t be underestimated is the desire of companies in Vancouver or Toronto or London to work with SD companies. Motivation is a key factor in performance.

San Diego’s wonderful leisure climate and opportunities are a powerful draw to bring smart talent, business entrepreneurs, and investors from around the world. All that’s needed are people who believe in San Diego!

Check out SDEDC’s downloadable infographic of the current economic stats (June 2016)

sdedc

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Should SD be Leveraging the 4 Pillars instead of Leaning on Them?

San Diego has 4 key industries including maritime/naval, healthcare, tourism, and research.

Although US naval fleets and operations are the biggest engine of business and tax revenue in San Diego, the future of war doesn’t look good. If defense budgets stay at current levels, that’s fine, but San Diego needs to grow and diversify to generate greater opportunity, investment and of course jobs.

percapitasandiegoAccording to dot.ca.gov, in 2012, most employment sectors in San Diego enjoyed job growth. And the city’s current 4.2% jobless rate is extraordinary. Most cities can only dream of that. The largest gains occurred in professional services (+5,700 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+5,400 jobs), and retail and wholesale trade (+4,500 jobs), and education and healthcare (+4,300 jobs). The only sector that lost jobs was government (-1,400 jobs).  

It’s expected that from 2013 to 2018, growth will average 1.9 % per year and the fastest rates of growth will occur in information and professional and business services with annual rates of 3.8% and 2.9%

Compare SD’s per capital income growth to San Francisco’s pictured here at right, and you can expect more skilled, creative talented IT related workers to choose Palo Alto and Mountainview rather than San Diego to work and live. But for startups, it might be better to stick to Toronto (see Entrepreneur.com’s vote), Vancouver or Charlotte. Boston, LA, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley are expensive. And Sergei Brin of Google agrees.

Don’t launch your startup in Silicon Valley. During the boom cycles, the expectations around the costs – real estate, salaries – the expectations people and employees have … it can be hard to make a scrappy initial business that’s self-sustaining. Silicon Valley is good for scaling that opportunity, providing more capital and allowing more risk.” — Sergei Brin stated at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit June 27, 2016

From 2016 to 2020, SD’s population will grow about 180,000 and per capita income will grow about $4,000 to an average of $58,428. The professional services sector will see the strongest job growth in total of more than 20,000 new jobs.

sandiegoindustries

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San Francisco’s average income is $30,000 above San Diego’s. It will take a lot for San Diego Businesses to overcome that, and the fact that Silicon Valley is full of investment money.

And in this graphic at right, we discover that per capita income will rise much faster than the California average (other CA counties will do much better).

High wages in San Francisco, Palo Alto, Mountainview, Santa Clara, San Jose will draw high skilled IT workers like flies. However the Bay Area is pricey and the cost of doing business there will eat away at capital and profits.  Silicon Valley looks to India for alleys but Donald Trump might throw a monkey wrench into their machine.

 

REAL ESTATE: High volumes of sales and soaring home prices indicate that compared to the rest of the nation, California metros are benefitting from strong housing sector growth in 2013. San Francisco is considered by some to be the strongest market in the country, closely followed by several other California metros including San Jose, Sacramento, Orange, and San Joaquin Counties.

 

Where will you find San Francisco apartments for rent? Are you looking for the best cities to invest in real estate in 2017? Where is the best Vacation destination: Costa Rica or San Diego? Is this he right time to sell your home? Reports suggest people don’t intend to sell their homes so what impact will that have on the US housing construction forecast?  How will first time buyers ever get the mortgage financing they need to buy?

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Real Estate Market Forecast Housing Outlook Vancouver 2016

There’s Cause for Optimism in Vancouver and the Rest of BC

bcforestgraphThe irony of it all. BC is now Canada’s economic darling and yet some are complaining (justifiably, those who can’t pay the high rents). The question is whether politicians will try do something negative to spoil this growth.

The BC economy is expected to expand nicely at 2.9% to 3.1% next year. BC exports are growing as new liberal international trade deals are increased and as our loonie keeps falling to .75US.

CMHC believes there will be 30,000 more households in BC next year, and that will support sales of rising new homes being built. Mortgage and borrowing rates will stay low, energy prices will stay low so it’s a superb business situation for BC companies who need the investment money.

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Exports to China strong. Growing trade will make Vancouver the key city in Canada in the next 5 years.

BC’s latest jobs report is pretty good too. BC is leading the country with 12,400 jobs added, while the rest of Canada lost jobs. And 2016 has a nice look to it — supporting a healthy real estate sector.

The big controversy is the influx of Chinese investment money into the BC commercial and residential real estate sector. If the Asian markets continue sliding, more rich Chinese will be seeking to park their money in Vancouver and Toronto property. This is a short term financial anomaly that won’t continue so why bother trying to kill it?

September report from RBC paints a rosy picture of BC's growing economic power
September report from RBC paints a rosy picture of BC’s growing economic power

A Better way to Manage the Influx of Billions

Chinese investing in Vancouver
Chinese buyers surfing the Net to find Canadian Properties

There are those who want to end the infusion of investment from Chinese property buyers.

Rather than making these investors use devious ways to buy property here, we could make it easier for them to buy in the Okanagan, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Toronto tax-free, since this investment money could go elsewhere instead. We could lose it all.

If Asian buyers can’t buy here, they will choose the US to park their cash. San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami and New York are very attractive too. But Vancouver’s better.

A report in the Globe and Mail states:

Dan Scarrow, vice-president of corporate strategy at Macdonald Realty Ltd., estimates that 16 per cent of his firm’s 1,500 sales of detached houses, condos and townhouses within the city of Vancouver last year went to buyers from China. Of his firm’s 544 sales of detached homes in Vancouver proper last year, 150 of the purchasers were from China, or 27.5 per cent.

Another Globe and mail report suggests Chinese sales are aided by a tax loophole that allows them to avoid tax by listing the purchase in the name of a relative.  33% of all these purchases are bought under these circumstances. If this loophole is closed, it could send a shockwave through the real estate market.

Big Sales but fewer Homeowners are Selling

The G&M report also revealed that number of listings in Vancouver has dropped 27% from last year.

In Vancouver, housing starts are expected to grow from 9500 in 2015 to 9600 next year. Resale home sales will rise from $820,000 in 2015 to $835,000 in 2016. According the BC real estate association, the average price of a single detached home will rise from $885,000 currently to $920,000 next year. That’s up more than $100k from 2014.

The GVREB HPI index price for a detached property rose to nearly $1.41 million in Sept 201, up 11.5% from last September.

If the Liberals win the October 19th election, which is very likely, we could see a boost in the economy with them increasing spending.  The latest jobs report is a rise of 73k part time jobs and a drop of 62k in full time jobs.

federalelection

Outsourcing Marketing to India is Killing our Businesses

After you Outsource Marketing to India, What’s Left?

In the current yet long running outsourcing IT and customer service to India craze, companies are hoping they can outsource marketing to them as well. Although coding might be okay for Indian providers, marketing is where they fall flat on their face.

mac
Yes, even McDonalds is outsourcing to India

Marketing communications is subtle and person, therefore a typed script, a code bloated app, or blasting out timed broadcast spam email just doesn’t cut it.  Personal is a frightening word to Indian companies. Some IT people see marketing as a subtask of IT, but that is completely ridiculous.

Marketing’s value and success in the social media era is about the subtlety of personalized human to human, real time online engagement. That’s something Indian companies can’t do, yet they’d like to have you outsource marketing to them.

Through many years of networking and working with clients, I’ve learned that if there are any Indians on staff, it will be unlikely that my company will be chosen for digital marketing. And if my company is chosen, it’s short lived and an Indian company will get to build on my quality efforts.




Indians will only Work with Indians

I wrote this post after speaking with yet another Indian IT manager, whom if you don’t know, try to influence managers to outsource digital marketing to their connections in their motherland quoting cheap costs.  Vulnerable CEOs are too quick to think they can take the heat off by outsourcing to India.  You can see how this is a negative signal — of last resorts for a manager in trouble. In contrast is the choice to hire a North American digital marketer with the ability to connect and touch prospects emotionally. There’s no reason to pull punches here. This is a big problem that’s growing.

Relying on cheap Indian digital marketing tactics is having a significant depressing impact on British and North American business competitiveness and GDP.  US trade deficit with India is rising fast at 24 billion dollars. Maintaining our international competitiveness means taking care of our marketing ourselves. India should not be controlling our marketing.

I Bought this Garbage Cheap!

If you shop at Walmart, Tesco, ToysRus, Costco, or Walgreen’s, you see wall to wall cheap plastic products from China (especially at Xmas) which get little or no use and end up in your local dump. The same thing is taking place online with Indian IT marketeers. They create digital junk whose value vaporizes quickly. I’ve worked with them in the past and learned this truth from experience. They’re the digital IT candy store that leaves you with profit cavities.

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Photo courtesy of outsourceportfolio.com

When companies use Indian IT marketeers, the value is temporary and leaves your customers feeling awkward, misunderstood, uneasy, and uncomfortable which erodes customer loyalty and brand value. When results drop, you’re left to ask them to fix it. How ironic? Their content is always along the lines of tech talk and is boring, uninformative, and actually ruins your carefully, laser-etched brand image. It’s corrosive of everything you’re building.

As the stats reveal, the outsourcing of IT and customer relationships to India is dangerous to our long term economic health and our own career opportunities. It’s only natural that India would try to tie marketing to IT.  It’s the best way to infiltrate another sector of our economy.  But indian IT leaves no satisfaction when it comes to the world of marketing which is becoming more personalized.

Why Indian Providers Fail

  • the work is of poor quality – you get what you pay for
  • work is not tailored to the local business
  • results are not organic – they’re manufactured and against Google’s link guidelines
  • non-organic networking creates poor quality leads which leads a business down the wrong road
  • lack of understanding of American or British personality and nuance
  • lack of understanding of American/British values and reasoning
  • results are often designed to provide short term value only so you’ll return to pay them more
  • they possess an unsavoury digital soul devoid of real human stories and interaction
  • time delay causes huge administrative headaches and worsens miscommunication issues
  • offshoring branding and traffic access makes a company’s control of their future tenuous
  • Indian staff here favor only Indian subcontractors whether they’re competent or not

Poor Performance Factors – Cloaking the Truth

india-outsource
Photo courtesy of ndtv.com

Poor performance from Indian firms goes well beyond grammatical and spelling errors. There is a whole issue of semantics that they can’t comprehend. Big telecom companies are cloaking the cultural and linguistic dissonance using formal customer service scripts that take the emotional and human element completely out of it.

By taking the human to human experience out of it though, and turning it into a robotic exercise driven by marketing automation, they cripple their ability to be taken seriously by customers. Consumers are being treated like mindless automatons who devour simple, mechanical messaging dished out in conveyor belt fashion.

Consequently, customer satisfaction is taken out too. And if you’ve ever spoken with Indian customer service reps for half an hour to solve a small tech issue (while they try to sell you the upgraded package that saves you money scam), you understand how exasperating it is. Big companies with monopoly positions only want cost savings and they’re willing to take a big hit in brand destruction to make those extra dollars. It’s not a good tradeoff.

Cheap is Never Good

Indian marketeers are unable to express the subtleties of a company’s value proposition and branding in personal, human terms that make it work meaningfully with North American and British customers. They don’t understand our culture so they hide in technology. They fail terribly at social media where they must connect with, interact and engage meaningfully with British or North American audiences. But don’t think for a minute that Indian companies are turning a blind eye to social media. Social media CRM chat apps, using English names, and phony photographs are their trojan horse.

In lead generation, the cheap traffic they build to websites is the least qualified, often time-wasting type that erodes marketing staff morale and which then creates disillusionment and suspicion that someone like myself has to deal with afterward.

Targeting the Bottom of the Barrel Leads

Choosing an Indian provider is a sure sign that a company is not targeting the 20% audience that comprise the best prospects. Indian companies look for easy, low hanging fruit via IT tactics that a company could get on its own. The style of Indian companies creates a rift between marketing and the company, and corrodes the company’s brand image.

And this is all under the banner of cheap, something for nothing promises that Indian companies thrive on. When indian link builders generate inbound links, they are all too often of poor quality that actually drags down company search engine rankings. Then when a North American digital marketing company comes in, they have to undo the harm created.

Instead of cost cutting on critical digital marketing functions, it might be wise to reorganize staffing to create a budget for them. The hiring of Indian companies is an insult to digital marketing because it means marketing comes last in the priority hierarchy and must operate with minimal budgets and respect. As an example, link building is the most important SEO task, yet when clients hear the phrase link building, they imagine $10 paid links comes to mind. And indian links always disappear.  Copywriting? Graphics? Always embarrassing.

Trump Says “No More”

trump4
Despite his new building in Mumbai, Trump is steadfast on his goal of revitalizing the US economy and trade balance. Photo courtesy of Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump, the next US president is talking tough about restricting NB1 Visas which pull Indian workers into the US. Trump’s pro American talk is gaining momentum. Outsourcing to India and having Indian companies such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Wipro bring workers into the US is a highly contentious issue. But it really highlights how extreme the Indian problem has become.

I doubt you’ll argue that your marketing is your company’s future. If that’s true, then hiring Indian firms suggest your company is heading in a downward spiral. You can pull out of the deathspin by giving projects to capable North American or British marketing firms who can and will develop the right emotional messaging, branding, and engagement with customers and prospects.

How we can rid ourselves on the Indian marketing problem is to put a heavy accent on real time engagement and the emotional, cultural subtleties that make customers happy. Real time engagement is powerful in converting leads but that happens when a customer is speaking with a peer in their world. Customers want meaningful experiences, those that connect to their daily life experiences. That’s what social media is all about.

Social media’s rise shows how important social connections are to us, whether business or personal. Customers want genuine people and companies to connect with. Your transparency using North American or British providers means your customers will trust you more. Trust, likability, and expertise they can relate to personally is vital to business success today.

Hire a Canadian, US, or British firm and connect with real people worth knowing and engaging with. The success of your company, agency, brokerage, or consulting business relies on this authenticity of engagement.

Read up on the hottest real estate markets in Toronto, Los Angeles, San Diego, and in York Region Ontario. You might have me help you market your home or use a real estate agent in your town.  Compare the costs and results.