The Trump Economic Boom 2025
The resignation of Joe Biden and the refusal of Barack Obama to endorse Kamala Harris, has sent the Democrat Party into turmoil and conflict.
The infighting is only beginning as hopefuls try to capture attention and support ahead of their convention. The disarray of the failing party seems to be galvanizing the strength and belief in the Republican Party even more.
Democrat Billionaires have refused to deliver up tens of millions of dollars for Harris’ campaigns, so the party will need to find another suitable replacement for Biden. With 3 months to go to the election, it doesn’t seem likely the Democrats can stop a Republican win. In fact, Americans express disgust, exhaustion and dismay at where the Democrats have led the country to.
Disliked Maybe, be Much Needed — Donald Trump
President Trump knows taxes are the biggest pain in American lives and with the US debt interest becoming unmanageable, US businesses have been losing faith. By lowering taxes (among other initiatives), Trump’s giving America’s millions of small businesses a blood transfusion of sorts. This change means small business might be investible again. Experts look at the Russell small cap stock index forecasts, and view it as the most profitable investment going forward into 2025 and the next 5 years.
Polling favors the Republicans with Trump up by a comfortable margin. It’s his race to lose.
Time for a Change
The embattled, brave and often bombastic Donald Trump is riding on a wave of new support from Billionaires. They and Americans appear ready to beat the Democrats. This time it looks like Trump has support. More stock market experts are of the opinion that Donald Trump will become the next president of the United States on Nov 5th 2024.
The US Senate Elections will be held Nov 5th, 2024 as well, but with only 33 of the 100 seats contested. It’s believed the Republicans will capture many of them for a majority control of the US Senate.
The US House elections will be held on the same date with all 435 seats up for election. It’s believed the Republicans will win the House of Representatives too. That sets up a total control situation, where Democrats won’t be able to block Republican or Trump economic initiatives.
Make America Great Again
No matter how you feel about the things he says, his phrase “Make America Great Again” shows a leaning toward pro-American government policies which has to excite investors around the globe. It’s a potential rebirth of the US, with a focus on its needs, and not those of Asia, and US investors who have poured trillions into developing their economy. The profit potential is immense.
The Monday after the failed assassination attempt, the Dow Jones jumped to a record level. The long-suffering Dow is poised to gain most under a Trump Presidency, while the China-focused NASDAQ may have the most to lose, behind US small caps.
The US needs substantial support by its own government in order to capture the confidence of global investors. And without US spending around the world and imports into the US, the world seems less investible. They will climb on board in a new way to work with Trump and the Republicans for a better arrangement.
Of late, investors have bet against US companies with massive short positions on equities. This could extend into early 2025, before they have to cover their short positions. Although this article is about more than just the stock market, the outlook for stocks is one indicator of US economic success.
It’s not hard to envision big growth in the S&P, NASDAQ and Dow Jones as the rebirth nears. The Russell small cap companies in particular, and all small businesses in the US are in for an even more impressive jump in value and profitability.
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at independent financial research boutique Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that shifts toward a Trump administration historically benefited small caps, industrials, and financials. Near term, he expects inflation to fall sharply due to a recession in durable goods, including housing and autos, and that interest rates will drop fast in 2025. He believes energy stocks will be a great investment opportunity over the next 3 to 5 years. Donald Trump is keen to make the US the world leader in energy production.
This economic rebirth which we can illuminate will combine with the effect of lower interest rates and stimulute small business formation and growth. Trump’s protectionist policies too will help protect US companies and investors like you keep your business investments viable. Small businesses will enjoy the next 5 year period from 2025 to 2029.
The 5 year stock market outlook is the view to immerse yourself in.
President Trump’s First Term as President
If we look back on President Trump’s first term in office, we see the economy performed very well despite the damaging effects of the Covid Pandemic. The NASDAQ from Nov/16 to Nov/20 rose 84% while the Russell 2000 rose 71%, and the S&P rose 62%. The Dow Jones rose 56%, the best for a Republican since the roaries twenties, one hundred years ago!
If you recall back in 2016, he was a lame duck President due to the democrat controlled US Senate blocking every bill he proposed. He had to revert to Presidential executive order bills to enact the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. and other initiatives. This time around the Dems may not be able to block him.
- According to the White House, the US gained 7 million new jobs – 3 times government experts’ projections.
- Middle-class family income increased nearly $6,000 – 5 times the gains of the Obama administration.
- unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years
You might argue that the basic stats were no better than Obama or Biden, given the economic rise was simply part of a 10-year post-great recession recovery where all ships in the harbor rose.
The distinction between Trump and the Democrats is the focus on Americans, not US investors pouring money into China, or fake climate laws that only punish US companies, or hedgefunds/banks seeking big returns from imports into the USA, and access to the China market.
The China market coincidentally, is already shrinking and looks to be less competitive. The reshoring of production to the US will be a big driver of growth, as will US control of supply chains. Deregulation will drive down US prices and open opportunity for entrepreneurs.
It is believed President Trump will penalize the big monopolies. However, last time that didn’t happen and it might not in his next 4 year term. As long as they’re US businesses, he might not do anything. However, it’s widely known that their monopolies on services, digital infrastructure, and key components and markets, makes it tough for any SMB to thrive. If small business is going to grow, he may need to bring protection. We’ll find out how Republicans feel about that issue going forward.
During his first term, he:
- cut the business tax from 35% to 21% which greatly helped US companies compete with global competition within the USA
- 100% deduction of capital investments made
- $1.5 trillion dollars was repatriated from overseas
- wages rose fastest for low-income and blue collar workers – up 16%
- created more than 1.2+ million manufacturing and construction jobs
- created 9000 opportunity zones where economic assistance was needed
- manufacturer, home builder and small business confidence rose significantly
- substantial increase in harmful regulations that strangled American businesses
- reduced approval times for major infrastructure projects
- made a deal for China to buy $200 billion in US products to reduce trade deficit (China failed to live up to the agreement)
- worked with Europe to reduce unfair international trade practices
- built a wall to stop illegal migrants, human trafficking and narcotic smuggling
- increased tariffs on Chinese imports
- made it more difficult for US institutional investors to invest in China instead of the US
- helped encourage world peace which helped reduce the need for military spending
See more on the stock market forecast, latest stock market news and the 5 Year stock market outlook.