Is Revenge Travel Done?

If you missed out on the phenomena of “revenge travel” then don’t fret. It looks like it’s going to continue for a few more years. And travel prices are dropping.

This labor weekend is proof that far from over, revenge travel is putting it in gear for an extended period of travel experiences.

According to WSAZ.com, United Airlines is predicting its biggest Labor Day weekend ever, with nearly 2.8 million passengers in this 6-day period. Flights in the US will be up 2% vs 2019. It’s happy times for those who can afford it, but perhaps more pain for those who suffered the frustration and stagnation of the pandemic era.

Airfare/rentals/hotels/food costs for travelers. Screenshot courtesy of NerdWallet.

One of the key beliefs about the end of this travel boom is that consumers are running out of money. Over this period of high inflation, high prices, high taxes, and flat wages, people are indeed running out of savings.

However, travel prices are falling too. And a lot of people still have quite a bit of money to spend. If anything, that should stimulate lots of bargains for travelers, particularly those who sold their house or invested in stocks in 2020.

Vancouver, Canada. Photo courtesy of Mike Benna, photgrapher.

And US students and others will have to begin repaying their student loans again. However, that should free up precious seating on flights thus drawing other reluctant travelers to take that trip to Vegas, Vancouver or Florida.

And with worries of an impending recession, others may be battening down the hatches for some rough seas ahead. Few see an economic collapse or housing market crash, at least in the US or Canada but it’s making some more cautious about big ticket expenses.

Pro US Trade Deals and Pro-American Policies

With the repatriation of goods production and an economic split with China, we have to expect a strong 2024/2025 economy. Just the reduction in the trade deficit will give the US economy a big booster shot. And investors will be forced to invest in US company. Only high Central bank rates are ruining the party. Collectively, everyone is getting tired of the foolishness of artificial restraints on demand and supply. With Biden seeking re-election, the economy must recover in 2024.

There are still a lot of people who haven’t had vacations in a long time. Their desire or need for a break and new experiences won’t suddenly evaporate.

With interest rates falling, it will only stimulate optimism in the future, thus consumers willing to spend to rejuvenate themselves. After all, it’s an investment in their lives personally and sometimes professionally. Although corporations are trying to pull workers back to downtown offices to save the office/retail market in cities, many young workers are on contract, looking for affordable and interesting destinations to work from. Looking out at a bleak winter snow scene isn’t all that interesting anymore.

Revenge travel will add to the travel market for a few more years.

Not Enough Supply

NerdWallet reports flight prices, hotel rooms and car rentals are all up in 2023. Airfare in particular is up 10% vs 2019 and car rental prices have grown 53% vs 2019. Carriers have actually cut back on scheduled flights.

According to a Washington Post article, Airbnb had an 11% growth in bookings in the 2nd quarter of 2023, vs last year.

Last Thursday was the busiest day in U.S. airspace, with 52,000+ flights scheduled, followed by 49,000 flights on Friday. AAA booking data for flights, hotels, rental cars, and cruises shows domestic Labor Day weekend travel is up over last year by 4% and international bookings are up by a whopping 44%.

Kurt Alexander CEO of Omni Hotels believes we’ll see a “plateau” in travel spending, rather than a serious retracing.

AAA reports that “Domestically, the Pacific Northwest, big cities like New York and Denver, and tourist hotspots like Orlando and Las Vegas are the most popular. Internationally, it’s all about Europe and Canada.”

Travelers are Booking for 2024 Trips Already

Consumers want good prices and they’re hunting for and booking well ahead of time for a 2024 vacation. Hopper.com shows North American and South American travel is strong while Europe is down a little, and travel to Asia is crashing.

Hopper believes airfares will fall through this fall season, which only makes travel more inviting to consumers. If more people and families are flying rather than driving, it’s likely due to extreme weather/heat and these very low air fares.

Clearly, revenge travel now has different destinations in mind. Canada seems to be inviting this fall with its cooler temperatures and fall season colors. Many Americans haven’t visited Canada, a safe country where Americans aren’t hated, and that should continue in 2024. The Canadian dollar remains low and US travelers get a lot for their vacation dollar in places like Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, and the Rocky Mountains.