Stock Market Crash 2018? – Predictions Signals Indicators Market Watch – 2018 2019 Forecast

Stock Market Correction or Crash?

Is what happened this week just a correction to a booming market with excessively high stock price valuations, or is it the beginning of a stock market crash?

Experts are scrambling to understand what’s happening but while we’re waiting why not jump in and analyze this while we’re waiting? Sound like a plan?

At this point, the depressing culprit seems to be the persistent announcement of the Fed interest rate hikes. It’s almost a papparazzi thing now.  However, when those comments are fed into AI trading bots algorithms, it might become contagion for other markets.

The market correction on the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, FTSE and TSX isn’t over it seems.

Vix Chart Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

In early February, the US stock markets including the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and the S&P fell 5% to 10%. The Dow plummeted 1600 on Monday the worst single day correction in its history.

Will this persistent volatility on the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, FTSE, and TSX become a contagion that affects other markets such as the housing markets? People used the big loss day on Monday as a marker, but perhaps tomorrow will be a new marker?

As an investor, do you need to know the causes of the volatility and correction? Right now, the market has recovered and the US dollar is gaining strength. Yet trade deal turbulence could cause a wobble in global markets. The world is still dependent on the US economy.

Will there be a housing crash in 2018/2019?  Jobs are up, but consumer mood is at a 6 month low.

Investors are nervous.  Experts believe the stock correction was due to Fed Interest rate intentions (are they really fighting inflation?), or ETFs or AI guided trading bots. Since there was no emotion before the mini crash last Friday, it appears the slide was quietly caused by AI trading bots working for large funds.




This post delves briefly into the theory and factors involved in market crashes, corrections and selloffs including government meddling and AI systems (Note: even the people who make Artificial intelligence and self-learning algorithms have admitted they don’t understand how the AI systems make decisions. They learn and make decisions independent of human input and may not be  able to report to humans how and why they acted).

As time passes and bots do more of the trading, investors are left with fewer clues as to what is moving the markets and when it’s  time to get out. That fear could lead to panic selling next time.

Global stock markets were deeply impacted in the last few days, letting everyone know that markets are connected, even the housing market.

The TSX dropped another 271, and NASDAQ is down 273 points on the day. It’s been more than a correction or sell off, and looking more like a mini-crash is under way. CNBC’s Jim Cramer is calling it a “Flash Crash.”

Largest intraday point drop for Dow in history from CNBC.





The price of oil and CAD vs USD exchange rate has dropped significantly as well. It’s an interestign time for forex brokers and foreign exchange forecasts.

Housing is great too, although amid the housing market predictions is some worry of a serious housing crash.

Lately, the mood has been so positive that investors are gladly ponying up big money for stocks. It’s difficult for anyone to visualize the perils of an overly positive mindset — Euphoria.  Are we in the housing euphoria bubble?

Stock price rises will continue in 2018, however, when and how will this amazing bull market end? Lets take a good look at the issue without any counterbalancing rhetoric which prevents us from digging in and exploring the stock market crash mechanisms and theories.

The Dow, S&P and NasDaq all hit new record highs in 2017 and stock valuations are very high, perhaps too high to justify. The recent volatility of bitcoin might be worth mentioning because a few are suggesting it cause trouble for the stock markets. Many investors don’t seem to know what bitcoin is worth.

And given how complex markets, businesses, and computer trading is, investors really don’t know what could happen.

Will the Market Bubble Collapse?

Some experts suggest a stock market bubble is about to burst sometime between now and 2020. Other forecasters refer to government reactions and politicies as the key determinant or crash factor. You’ll hear them in the videos below.

Some even point to the fact that Warren Buffet is sitting on a mountain of cash rather than holding stock.  And his stock market indicator is pointing to a crash.




As you’ll see in Tony Robbins prediction video below, people will make money on the market crash (including those selling short). And others will lose everything. Let’s look at the prospect of a stock market crash and hear from experts.

Could we say this crash will be like a series of wobbly dominoes that begin falling, while overconfident officials feel they can reach out and stop the crashing tiles?

Some are looking at the housing market as ripe for a crash. There’s been persistent rumors of crashes in Miami, Denver, Seattle, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Toronto and Vancouver up in Canada.  Yet none of these markets could crash easily. The economy is okay and there are too many people who need homes.




Too Much Overvaluation, Optimism and Growth?

Some experts cite the euphoria of stock markets during their bull runs. They suggest the heightened unrealistic expectations create a platform for disaster and when reality strikes, truth launches panicked sell offs. Some say the overvalued stocks, economy, and general optimism present right is a sure predecessor of a crash. It may have been that way in 1987.

Stock values have reached levels not seen since those two disasters and a correction would throw the world economy – currently seeing an ongoing boom period – into disarray — news report.

Stock prices and housing prices have ridden on a tide of low interest rates, demographic changes, government stimulation, foreign trade, technology, and more. At the end of a long business cycle, consumers are satiated. But do consumers have all they want? Are investors ready to leave US stock markets for gold and currency?

What do the Historical Stock Timeline Charts Say?

This chart of the S&P index shows market crashes are uncommon.

Chart courtesy of http://directorblue.blogspot.ca

Economic indicators are traditionally used to identify potential crashes. Check out these top 6.  Are investors so optimistic that economic data can be disregarded?

Graphic courtesy of Yahoo Finance – DJI up to 2018 Graphic courtesy of Yahoo Finance – NASDAQ up to 2018




Is What Happened in Previous Market Collapses Relevant?

Bearish experts will rely on history, and history likely will side with a crash outcome between 2018 and 2020.

The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% – from Wikipedia

Panic – Where Reasoning Disappears

Panic emotions of investors and government leaders is the X Factor. Today, markets are driven by computer algorithms that act faster, and still ultimately controlled by emotional humans. If you’ve ever seen a stampede, you probably can visualize the events in 1929. Some are thinking that computer aided panic is what might happen.


Thursday marks the 30th anniversary of ‘Black Monday’ market crash from CNBC.

Sharing is Good for your Social Health!

Make sure your friends and family have a good lock on the economy and markets. These are scary times ahead.

AI Systems may Panic without Emotion

Artificial intelligence systems, trading algorithms, or AI predictive programs may even be more prone to panic because their actions are actually irrational. They’ll sell lightning fast without any reference to long term value.

When panic hits, the AI systems may become almost useless, other than predicting which stocks will crash slower.
In fact, such AI algorithms are so complex, the programmers can’t figure out how the AI systems are making their decisions. AI systems can’t describe why they make their decisions either.

The AI systems are increasingly autonomous, taking cues from market activity yet not really knowing what the activity means on a human emotional level. AI systems don’t really understand the human element of international trade and politics.  Geopolitical risk is a major factor today.





If thinking about a US stock market crash is too difficult to visualize, you might consider selling soon. Getting greedy is one additional sign of irrational thinking that’s driving stock markets and housing markets currently.

Housing markets are key because real estate has been driving the economy for awhile. A bursting housing bubble could launch the landslide that takes down the stock markets.

Seriously, Could US Stock Markets Crash?

All positive economic cycles generally end with some sort of rapid descent, just like a roller coaster. That descent at the end is the rush out just like a stampede. It’s completely desperate and irrational.

Long term, everything returns to the equilibrium point. The stock market crash is the point where investors lose all confidence and decide to pull their money out pronto. Sell, Sell, Sell.

As a million dollar home owner or prospective buyer, you’re wondering when this record long economic boom will end.

An important signal is desperate buyers jumping into the housing market at excessively inflated prices, overly indebted and leveraged, they fall hard when the panic button gets pushed.

Cheap Financing Overcomes a Blocking of Housing Supply

When governments prohibit land development, it makes home prices rocket. More millennials wanting/needing homes, high immigration, rising income, low interest rates, cheap mortgages all together create the drive to buy a home.

Big money chases few homes, and when governments persist in stopping or not supporting land development, speculators become more confident prices will rise further.

Then a politician steps in with their solution, at the end of the business cycle where employent and profits will begin to drop. Speculators/investors pull out fast, and the slide begins.




Will the Housing Market Collapse Too?

Home prices are now around record levels, but there is low unemployment, low mortgage rates, and a huge population hoping to own. That’s desperation. Enter cheap financing companies giving buyers a hope at ownership, just like 2007, and a housing market collapse.

President Trump’s recent tax revamp is going to extend the cycle for sure. Yet that provides more time for the “crash factors” to form like clouds on a beautiful sunny day.

Business cycles form just like cold weather fronts over the prairies. They end in storms.

Have a read of Wikipedia’s description of market cycles and the various theories of why markets collapse and you’ll be more certain that they could indeed happen. From MIT’s inverse cubic power law, to chaos theory, researchers focus on the mathematical and technical elements.




The research on investor/debtor mimicry  is worth a read too.

People follow each other blindly like they were tailgating each other on a high speed highway. If anything happens, there’s going to be a chain reaction crash.

The way the expert describe mimicry however makes it look like everyone abandoning ship so are they mimicking others, or just jumping off the ship at the same time? However, the fact investors simply copy others buying and investing behaviors makes the abandonment more likely.

The research suggests mimicry was present in most stock market crashes and housing crashes. The predictive behavior is nervousness about the market, followed by mimicry, followed by panic. That panic could be set off by anything because of investor/owner anxiety.




Let’s say Warren Buffet sells a huge array of stocks suddenly. That combined with news about an impending war, poor jobs report, and fast rising interest rates, could be all it takes.

None of the research however, seems to be applied to human expectations, human happiness, and human panic. Human’s don’t pay attention to historical trends and data, nor what AI systems advise. They generally pay attention to now just like herding animals before a stampede. The signal that sets the herd off, could be one or two animals stumbling over a pothole.

The final analysis would reveal that people sell stocks and housing when they believe strongly the market is heading down. That’s when the wealthy and speculative investors check out en masse.

With stock market prices and housing prices at record highs, even uneducated investors and home owners would be vulnerable to bad news and false outlooks.

Tony Robbins Predictions on the Market

Tony Robbins explains why this Stock market crash could be the single best opportunity of your lifetime.

The major media networks might exaggerate some financial, political and consumer facts an launch a slide. The general consensus of Internet users driven by a Facebook/Twitter/Instagram mentality could easily exaggerate threats.



Major geopolitical actions might actually mean nothing materially for the markets, but if interpreted otherwise, it could start a slide that governments couldn’t stop.

In this video, Peter Schiff talks about government action being the key thing to predict a stock market slide.

The latest theory of RR Reversal has it that all markets suffer a pullback of 10 to 40%. So empirical data and events are the basis of future action.

Given the success of political correctness, fake news, and social media pressure, it’s not hard to see a big pull back driven by emotional investors and buyers. That could launch political reaction which magnifies the issue.

As good as prognosis the US economy has, there are a lot of human emotional factors that could launch a recession.
Let’s not forget that we’re a long way into this business cycle. The end is surely in sight. While not everyone is satiated and ready to stop spending, many wealthy people are.

The wealthy have unusually powerful vote about trends. When they pull out of the economy, that news will be heard by AI systems and human investment advisors.
When the panic button gets pushed this time, it will be the shock wave before the tsunami.



Even if we turn everything over to artificial intelligence systems, our global economy is new. The AI systems are seeing a new environment with new players. Chinese buyers and investors think differently than US bankers or European politicians. And a herd of 1.5 billion panickers is a scary thought.

Given the battle between Trump and his enemies, it’s an emotional environment that fuels income for news media. As you know, they need sensationalism to pay their bills. That smoke screen is enough to keep people off balance and insensitive to the real investment issues. At some point, in emotional confusion, the stampede could take place.

Most forecasting models don’t go beyond 2020 or 2024, and that in itself might give you pause for thought. The fact that investors, homebuyers, and corporations can’t visualize 2 years ahead is worrisome, especially since experts have access to all the data.

Too many forecasters, economists, and business people look at data, but is data just a false cue and where everyone reacts too late?

Screen capture courtesy of CNBC

Robert Shiller himself isn’t alarmed at the CASE ratio. He suggests that investors diversify their investments. That would help allay panic type behavior.



The Stock Market Crash Acelerators and Signals

Paying attention to economic changes and other signals could give you forewarning of what could happen from 2018 to 2020. If relying solely on professional stock market experts and news stories would not be wise. As the overall indicators move relentlessly high, it might provide a clear signal that market is cresting, and will head back down to equilibrium.

One clear signal might be excess in demand which draws money and government reaction.

Here’s a BIG list of housing market crash factors to look for:

  • stock prices at record levels
  • government passes complicated new tax bills that confuse and make investors uncertain
  • geopolitical events disturb international trade relationships and flow of goods/money
  • inflation and wages rise faster
  • housing prices peak
  • consumer product surpluses
  • natural end of a long business cycle
  • stock price to earnings ration too high (Shiller Pace is above 30)
  • misery index rises (unemployent rate + inflation rate)
  • the NAAIM index is too high (professional investors optimism)
  • growing market fear that may induce panic (investment advisors, market experts, bloggers)
  • assets have peaked in profit performance and wealthy begin to unload
  • too much consumer debt combined with risky investments (housing) and rising unemployment
  • corporate-Equities-to-GDP Ratio
  • accidental or emotional timing of government fiscal events (China preventing funds exodus)
  • key corporate failures in financial sector (bank, mortgage company, investment firm)

When do you think this current bull run in the markets will end? Will it be soft or a loud crash?

Note:  The statements and information presented in this post is not intended as professional investment advice. It is solely an exploration of stock investing and the risks, perils, and behavior of stock markets and the economy. No one should rely on a single source of information or a single stock market and investing professional’s advice.  The overall message of the post might be to diversify stock, real estate, and cash/gold holdings as a hedge against stock market crashes.  Investors should look into hedging strategies but be aware that even hedging may provide limited protection from a crash.

Housing stories 2018:  Foreign Exchange Rate ForecastHousing Market Predictions 2018Real Estate Forecast 2018 Boston | Miami Housing Predictions 2018Homes for Sale | Blockchain and Real Estate |  Apartment Rentals Bay Area | Toronto Housing Market 2018 |  Los Angeles Housing Predictions | San Diego Real Estate Predictions | New York Real Estate Predictions | Housing Market Forecast | Realtor BrandingHousing Boom Toronto | | Greater Vancouver Housing Forecast 2018 | Stock Market CrashShould I Sell My House? | Best House Renovations | Best Electric Vehicles 2018 | Expert Picks for Best Cities |

Houses For Sale – How to Find a Better Home for Sale ⌂ Los Angeles Phoenix New York Texas Florida Illinois

Find Houses for Sale with this Super Strategy 

Shop online for groceries, car insurance, or houses for sale, you’ll get better results by searching. In the case of home shopping, you’re going to save tens of thousands of dollars and get the home you want in the neighborhood you want.

That’s the beautiful thing about the Internet — a boundless number of sites that compete for your business.  There is no one single source for condos and houses for sale. They all compete but they don’t cooperate.

Below is an integrated home search strategy that will your make your house for sale search quest exciting and help you find the best property. You can still use a Realtor, but with this you’re still in charge and your Realtor will have to work to represent you.




People have so many hopes tied to acquiring a house (and dream home) yet most homes available for sale are a poor fit and a bad investment. You don’t have to setlle. When you limit your search, you ruin your chance to be happy. Google is a great help. Lots of help in finding open houses. But first, create a home search plan.

Seriously? A Home Search Plan?

Those who don’t plan, plan to fail. A bad choice has such serious consequences in money and happiness.  Take your time. And some selection criteria are more important than others.  List the must haves in your search and don’t deviate too far from. Here’s a few examples:

  1. which specific zip codes or neighbourhoods are right for your family? Find zip code neighborhood ratings and eliminate those with high crime ratings, no green space, recreation, inconvenient shopping, poor roads and utilities, poor schools quality
  2. excessive commute times? (how much can tolerate?)
  3. what size home do you need? How many bedrooms and bathrooms do you need?
  4. age and condition of home? (headaches and heartaches)
  5. what price range do you qualify for? How much for house, how much for renovations to improve bathrooms or create open concept layout?
  6. what downpayment should you have? (private financing)
  7. what payments can you manage? (house poor and depressed?)
  8. what will you absolutely not accept? (bad neighbors, viscious dogs, radio, swearing, drugs, drinking; and now you’ll take your time to make sure these awful things aren’t next door to you and your kids.)
  9. how much capital gains will you need over ten years? (you’ll eventually sell this house)

Realtor Systems are for Creating Sales

You’re not a transaction, you’re a family with a future. Keep in mind that Realtor type systems aim to sell you a house fast, not to let you get picky.  They might not even know about recent crime in the neighborhood or the condition and cost to upgrade the home to healthy.

You may need to go online, or use social media listening tools to learn of bad things in the neighborhood. At some point, your kids will come to face to face with them.

  1. setup a separate, new email address for the house hunting project only
  2. find your own home inspector
  3. use all the home finding sources below

Check out the housing markets in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Houston, Boston, and Miami. The Florida housing forecast should be of keen interest to northern retirees and investors weighing the value of rental properties.




It’s understandable that you want to get right at it, and search for a few possibilities online or just call a Realtor™. That’s not wise. It’s far better to create your own web of contacts and resources. This big machine will help you tap into the biggest pool of homes and leads. I have a collection of home search resources that will give you better results than any Realtor™.  And you’ll find 16 tips on homes for sale searching below too — a pro researcher’s process to help you scan for the best homes for sale online and select the right one. We’re going to get you on the sure path to your dream home — a powerful investment and a launchpad to a happy life.




Sharing is Good for Your Social Health

Please share this huge list of amazing property listing sites that have homes for sale below with your friends and family. Help them get the best and avoid the worst. This could be life saving!

Whether as a home or as a property investment income generator, you’re smart. It’s the one investment that creates additional streams of revenue from renters to solar roof panels to tax write offs.




With these tips and resources you can search and drill down to find the best homes for sale, including those not listed on the MLS. Google alerts can help you find new property listings that appear on websites, pages that aren’t very well promoted, because the real estate agent doesn’t want to spend money on Internet marketing.

Don’t rely on lazy Realtors — take massive action to find all potential properties for sale and work with winners.




17 Tips for Home Searching – Online and Offline

  1. visualize the type of home you want and avoid buying whatever the market has up for sale
  2. list your home feature priorities as a guide to keep you on track (e.g.,# of bedrooms floors and washrooms, square footage, distance to school or park, price point)
  3. research the best cities and zip codes with good schools, low crime rate, lower taxes, and lower density
  4. check out the home price history in the city, neighborhood/zip code, comps for similar houses, and the frequency of sales in the neighborhood
  5. do an online search of the street, neighbors, and see what comes up
  6. get preapproved and know how much you qualify for and how you will manage paying the home loan payments for years — don’t waste time searching for homes $100k above your budget
  7. search for the best mortgage deal online – don’t get stuck with a local mortgage agent who sweet talks you into a less than ideal solution
  8. find a good home inspector you can rely on to give you the best insight into the home’s condition
  9. search online for a good realtor, and do not just call one and settle — ask questions about experience, marketing skills, sales and negotiation experience, references, communication skills, and check their website out thoroughly — is this someone who is really into being a Realtor?
  10. connect with many different Realtors since each of them have their own connections and opportunities — the more the better
  11. search online using a variety of sources and get alerts from many Realtors and Google alerts on new properties
  12. before you go to a showing, create a spreadsheet chart that lists each feature you must have and below some nice to have’s and give them a 1 to 3 rating each – bold the top 3 must haves.
  13. measure your furniture and list them on a piece of paper and when you arrive at the home, sketch out the home layout and its dimensions – you can review them later when you have more time to think about everything you need in this home — don’t be impulsive but instead be critical, because if you like it, you’ll get your endorphin boost later
  14. pretend you’re a home inspector and walk around the property and the neighborhood — get a feel for this location and whether you feel comfortable, and take note of the attitude of your neighbors — you’ll be seeing them often
  15. take lots of photos inside the home – zoom in on the kitchen, bathroom, so you’ll have these for future reference when you’re comparing homes
  16. ask to see the actual tax statements and utility bills
  17. check the homeowner’s social pages and Google them thoroughly




Is the home you’re searching for Tech Friendly?  Even Millennial aged buyers forget this factor when attending open houses or showings. Tech-friendly is in.

Infographic courtesy of Porch and https://www.pinterest.com/pin/569142471629698008/

Before you buy, make sure you learn more about the housing market, (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, San Francisco, Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte, Seattle, and Vancouver). These are exceptionally hot markets where you’ll find high priced properties. For other lower priced markets see the cities page. Learn more about cities at city-data.com.

 

Best Places to Search for a Home

Looking in all the wrong places? There’s a cure for that — the right places. Take your time and peruse all of these so you craft a better understanding of the home search process.




  • Homes for Sale in Los Angeles – Search for dream properties in LA – owners list in Dream Homes Magazine to reach the wealthy clientele.
  • Homes for Sale in San Diego – Dream Homes has the best coverage of San Diego.
  • Luxury Homes for Sale above $10 Million+ For the world’s wealthiest 1%, Mega Dream Homes is the place to visit. Find a super luxury home real estate agent.
  • Homes for Sale in New York – Zillow is one site you need to use more often. They operate outside of the MLS system and can help you find additional properties.
  • Homes for Sale Silicon Valley CA – Sothebys has its own set of luxury home listings in the lucrative market in Silicon Valley.
  • Homes for Sale San Francisco – Century 21 is yet one more channel to search in the scarce San Francisco market.
  • Luxury Homes for Sale San Jose CA – Luxury Portfolio has additional opportunties you should get connected with.
  • Homes for Sale Seattle – Redfin could be an aid to your search in 2017.
  • Find new homes for sale in Canada at Buzzbuzzhomes.
  • How about a new home in Phoenix via the New Home Source?
  • Check out Boston’s hot home market with Coldwell Banker Realty
  • Search for Bargains in Calgary Alberta – The Saudis are already jacking up the price of oil and guess who has oil? Calgary Home Boys know the Calgary market.
  • Movoto is yet another resource to help you find homes in Chicago.
  • Homes for Sale Salt Lake City – How about Ziprealty for a unique selection of properties.
  • Denver Home search – should foreclosures be a part of your search?
  • Condo investments in Miami – Are condos good investments?
  • I wouldn’t recommend Craiglist real estate to find Atlanta homes for sale right now, however in a few years, it might be a relevant source.
  • How about searching an FSBO site for Homes for sale in Denver?
  • Find a home in Houston with Better Homes and Gardens
  • Dallas homes searches using an auction service?
  • Keller Williams is yet one more search option in Philadelphia
  • Search the scarce listings of homes in Vancouver for sale on Point2point.
  • If you’re patient and want a lower initial investment point in your home investment strategy you could keep informed with distressedpropertiessale.com
  • Find the best bargain properties via the Times Picayune in New Orleans.
  • Looking for investment property in San Antonio? Asking an experienced income property investor could be helpful.

 




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Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna,Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita,  Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Colorado Springs, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.

Vancouver Housing Market Forecast 2018 ⌂ Richmond Burnaby City of Vancouver Surrey Richmond BC

Vancouver Real Estate Market 2018 and 2019

Prices were up and sales were up, and listings are down in the greater Vancouver housing market last year.

GVREB reported that the MLS® HPI composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver
finished up 15.9% at $1,050,300 compared to December 2016. Home listings rose 44% over 2016, and sales to homes ratios hit a whopping 14% for detached homes, 38.8% for townhomes, and 59.6% for condominiums in greater Vancouver.

While there’s much talk about the depressing effects of Federal increases in interest rates and stress tests, it remains to be seen if it has any impact on the market, since those affected are unlikely to qualify to buy Vancouver’s high home prices anyway.

The December home market sunk by a whopping 28% from November’s totals and this will hardly spur new home development. It’s likely price pressure will return later in 2018. In fact, Phil Soper, President of Royal Lepage brokerage says Royal LePage predicts prices will rise 5% to 6% to $1.3 million on average across all home types in Greater Vancouver.




Just as in the Toronto real estate market, the condo market is where the focus is. That’s due to prices and the fed’s new stress test mortgage rules. With everyone bidding on lower priced condos in both cities, we should see big price increases, especially as borrowers hunt for new mortgage financing. Demand can disappear for a while, but it will return because so many people need a place to live.

Richmond and New Westminster bucked the downward trend with price growth of 2%. Richmond, Squamish, Whistler, Coquitlam, Burnaby and New Westminster also saw gains in apartment/condo prices in December.

December also saw the lowest level of home listings. The 20% decline is scary, making a 2018 housing forecast for Vancouver difficult.

Valiantly, Vancouver home builders are building multi-tenant buildings yet it looks like a losing battle. They issued permits for 263 units for all of Vancouver in October. It’s a market that’s run out of gas but the prices haven’t declined as governments had hoped.

Are you looking for good opportunities for rental income property? Or just wondering when the best time to sell your home in greater Vancouver? Take a look at the best best renovation ideas and plan your selling strategy.




The Vancouver housing market is reflective of a strong BC and Canadian economy and the outlook for spring 2018 is positive too. As the King of unaffordability, Vancouver is suffering from a crushed housing market, big immigration, increased global trade, growing poverty and stagnant wages. The monthly stats send the same message each time.

This same situation exists in the Toronto housing market which is enjoying a stronger fall season as well. In fact, a few are sensing the beginnings of continued housing boom after a weak late winter 2018 season.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 35,993 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2017, a 9.9% decrease from the 39,943 sales recorded in 2016, and a 15% decrease over the 42,326 residential sales in 2015. — from GVREB 2017 Year Report.




Vancouver remains perhaps the most unaffordable city in North America based on home price vs income. With new mortgage rules coming in 3 weeks, more Vancouverites will find themslves stuck in the rental market which is also not getting any better. Ask any post secondary student about housing.

The sales to listing ratio for the all important condomnium market was an astonishing 68%, up 7% since September. Cheap condos are hot, and going for way beyond what they’re actually worth.

Check out Realtor Steve Saretski’s November report and this key revealing graphic that foretells of 2018 and 2019 markets:

Maple Ridge and Port Coquitlam had big prices increases of 3.8% and 4.2% price growth in apartments. Single family houses in Squamish grew 3% in price this last month.

Share this report on Facebook. Sharing is good. People need more perspective because what’s being done in the Vancouver market is not working.

Given the fate of the Liberals, the NDP government may not be too eager to go the market killing route. However, the new plan being proffered by the Gregor Robertson’s city government, may be the thing I’ve commented on many times – that governments start economic and housing crashes, not the markets themselves.

Robertson is quoted as complaining about Vancouver’s amazing prosperity as “hit us like a ton of bricks.”  Those aren’t the kinds of words investors and homebuyers want to hear.

But should a local mayor be fiddling with strong global and national economic forces? Is he way overmatched, just like Wynne in Ontario?

One outrageous goal for Robertson may be to restrict ownership of Vancouver real estate by non residents. Seriously, in this era of open trade, he is actually considering it. Maybe Robertson will opt out of all trade deals and cross border business too since that just fuels demand for real estate?



It could be BC voters have learned that despite terribly high prices, that the BC economy is more important. And the strong Canadian economic forecast will push house prices higher. The solution is big investment in housing not in meddlesome government actions. When a politician fusses with administrative red tape, he’s telling us a lot.

The Need is for More Housing

Breaking News: PM Justin Trudeau has just announced a program to bring in one million new immigrants over the next 3 years. How many will choose Vancouver?  The influx will almost certainly impact Vancouver’s housing availability. Most newcomers are to come from Asia. Many immigrants are already here as students and there’s no housing for them.



House and Condo Stats in November

Sales in Vancouver were up 7% from September and up 35% from last October. Prices rose .5% over September and  12% over October 2016. Buyers have more million dollar homes (up 14%) at an average price of $1.6 million and a DOM of 41 days. Vancouver condos / townhouses prices 14%) in October. The sales to active listings ratio was an incredible 67% in October. Prices rise when that ratio surpasses 20%.

Experts believe rising mortgage rates and more restrictive stress tests will deflate the market. Fewer middle class earners will be able to qualify. That will put more pressure on the Vancouver rental market which is approaching zero vacancy rate. Incredibly, housing starts are down  and that will put upward pressure on the resale market.

BCREA in its 4th quarter report, forecast home sales might decline 10.4% to 91,700 units in 2018, after an expected 8.8%. A record 112,209 unit sales were recorded in 2016.  But these drops in sales are just drops in financial transactions. Prices of condos and houses aren’t falling.




It would be difficult to rationalize lower prices given a strong, growing economy and a lack of housing in Vancouver.

It’s All About Condos in Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, and Richmond

Demand for places to live and for investment properties is being funneled into the Greater Vancouver condominium market.

As of the first half of this year, HPO had received registrations for 1,788 new Vancouver condos, down from 2,488 units at the same time in 2016 — from a report in the Vancouver Sun.

Homes for sale scarcity combined with eager buyers, means demand is being focused on condos, townhouses and apartments. 3043 property sales were recorded in August 2017 which was 2.3% increase over July’s numbers. And it represented a 22% increase over August 2016 sales.




Condo Sales Driving Vancouver’s Market

While sales of detached homes dropped in August 2017 compared to July sales, and compared to August 2016 sales, Vancouver condos are in hot demand.  More than 4200 condos and townhouses were listed for sale in August. The decreased availability and rising prices are putting big pressure on International students studying in Vancouver.  UBC has 6000 students on their housing waitlist. Huge investment opportunity in foreign student housing.

Are you an investor? The August 2017 sales report shows townhouse/condo/apartment prices are rising fastest in Pitt Meadows, Squamish, Port Coquitlam, Burnaby East and Whistler. Mapleridge saw a big increase in apartment prices likely because the average price is only $252,000.

REGBV’s August 2017 report shows home and condo prices are rising. Any home for sale in Metro Vancouver between $350k and $750k are still subject to multiple offers. The big change is in the number of Vancouver area homes for sale which plummeted 19.2% since last month. Overall, the number of properties for sale dropped 4.2% since last month.

Check out the Calgary housing forecast and the Toronto housing Market for comparison.

REBGV President Jill Oudil stated the detached home market has achieved a balanced state and that buyers have more homes to choose from. That may contradict the reality that the volume of homes available for sale has plummeted. The truth might be that there are fewer buyers of homes above $750,000 which comprises most of the homes in Metro Vancouver. It’s a split market like Toronto.

The Federal Government has just raised the prime lending rate to 1% and hinted at further rate increases, and this will likely cool demand for higher end homes. The demand in Vancouver is still present, and the buyer target is condominiums.

Vancouver is host to tens of thousands of foreign students studying here, and they have an impact on condo prices. Currently companies such as CIBT specialize in student housing investment.  They purchase properties such as hotels to fill this big demand in a Vancouver housing market that is near to a zero vacancy rate. Check out the student housing investment opportunity yourself. The forecast here is for more demand.

Vancouver’s Housing Forecast Remains Positive

The last 8 years have been a real awakening for the city of Vancouver and for the rest of BC.  BC is now is perhaps the hottest province economically in Canada. This has spurred tremendous construction, entrepreneurial, and employment opportunities.  The demand for housing speaks for itself.

The BCREA reports that housing starts next year will jump dramatically. However, is 2,000 more units sufficient to quell the overheated market for rentals and buyers?

Screen Capture Courtesy of BCREA

This new tax, good for the BC government, may squash employment growth as Asian buyers look to live and buy elsewhere. Although this is a downer for Vancouver, it’s brightening the forecast for Calgary and theToronto housing market, where new investment is predicted to grow. Judging by the number of people visiting my site looking for info on Toronto, the demand is changing.




Post tax implementation: The average composite price for a Vancouver home was $938,000 in July which is still 33% higher than one year ago. The BC government has its worked cut out for it. The BC provincial government was already collecting $1.6 Billion dollars in taxes and the new tax will create a ridiculous opportunity for government spending in 2017. Do you cheer or jeer?

Here’s a look at the historical price trends in Vancouver contrasted with Toronto pirces. You can see the Toronto real estate forecast here.

The total numbers for July and August of 2017 haven’t been reported but we’d have to guess at $10 Billion for the two months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Metro Vancouver totalled 2,489 in August 2016, a decline of 26 per cent compared to the 3,362 sales in August 2015; 10.2% fewer than the 2,771 sales in August 2014; and 1% less than the 2,514 sales in August 2013. August 2016 sales also represent a 22.8% decline compared to last month’s sales. –  From the latest market report from REBGV on Sept 2, 2016.

The forecast is for fewer sales and perhaps lower prices, yet because of the foreign buyers tax, it might look more precipitous right now than it actually will be.

bcreasales2017f

Regarding Vancouver condos, it looks like demand has slackened for cheaper accommodation and apartments and condos. REGBV said “Sales of apartment properties reached 1,602 in July 2016, a decrease of 7.3 per cent compared to the 1,729 sales in July 2015. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 27.4 per cent from July 2015 to $510,600.”

BC Economic Outlook

Although employment growth and GDP will moderate, BC residents and homebuyers will have much more disposable income. These facts plus an expected 5.5% rise in retail sales will definitely perk the attention of businesses everywhere.

bcreaeconomy2017f

Running out of Land in Greater Vancouver

BC lower mainland real estate is doing well, in stark contrast with Northern BC which saw its sales volume drop 8% and total sales volume drop by 25% compared to January 2015. It will be much worse in August and September.

The Greater Vancouver area saw its sales volume rise 73% to $2,788,099,000.  That was actually overshadowed by the 101% rise in sales volume in the Fraser Valley year over year in January.  The valley had a growth of $427 Million. Chilliwack and Powell River saw significant gains too, as affordability issues are forcing more BC residents out into the burbs.  The condo market in Vancouver showed a shocking increase of 50% year over year.

What it means for BC is a rare moment of sunshine where it is leading Canada in prosperity. Add that to BC’s more progressive and optimistic culture, and you’ve got an exciting mix. We can only hope it will last for a few more years before the Conservative wet blanket kills the party.

Vancouver Island enjoyed 50% growth in sales volume and the city of Victoria grew in sales to $260 Million in January. The south Okanagan region had a surprising growth of 44% in sales volume as well. It’s hard to argue that the Okanagan has not benefited from real estate and migration.

mapoflowermainland

Yet, this market isn’t the hottest on record for BC, which was even more heated in 2005. Should this non-record high real estate market be snuffed out?

While politicians are jumping to suppress sales in BC, no one can argue that the deluge of real estate investment money is creating unheard of opportunity in Vancouver. The province is drawing migrants from Alberta and Saskatchewan who are looking for jobs at a time when Alberta is facing its biggest crisis ever. The worst hasn’t even hit Alberta yet, as oil sunk to touch $25 a barrel last week.

As far as the shadow flipping controversy is concerned, some believe the privacy issue in transactions will ensure the practice of flipping will continue unabated.  Others suggest the inflow of Chinese funds into BC will be terminated by the Chinese government and price rises  would then abate.

What is Shadow Flipping?

The Vancouver real estate forecast is glowing and is not headed upward, and Vancouver’s economic resilience has been tested by low commodity prices. Still, these good times never last so BC residents should revel in their wealth of opportunity. It’s a good time to be an entrepreneur in Vancouver.




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Are you a Vancouver real estate agent selling condos in Vancouver or detached homes struggling with online exposure? You’ve come to the right place. Have a good look at the best realtor digital marketing program available anywhere.

* BCREA is the professional association for over 19,000 REALTORS® in British Columbia Canada. BCREA focuses on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Housing Market 2017 – Latest News on US Real Estate Market Report

US Housing Market Report

If you haven’t read this post on the US housing market outlook for 2017 to 2020, please give it a good read. If you’re a home buyer, rental property investor, or you’re wondering where the best job prospects are for 2017 and beyond, there are several in depth reports on this blog with links to various data sources. This is helpful information to both investors and homebuyers. And you’ll find more in this report of best cities for real estate investment.

Too many of us have little insight into macroeconomic factors. We may have found such topics a bore in our youth, and the way reports are presented online, no one ever attempts to read or understand them again. How about we simplify them so we can can understand the US housing market 2017.  but these have immense influence over home prices, sales, mortgage rates, and whether anyone can afford to buy. One such macroeconomic factor is demographics. The fact that so many Millennials are reaching their home buying years now through to 2027 means there will be fundamental demand for homes and that puts huge upward pressure on home prices. Prices are already rising in what is the longest US economic expansion cycle ever.




The National Housing Scorecard for December 2016

The US Department of Housing and Urban Development has just released its overall US housing market health report for December 2016 and here are the findings:

  1. Sales of previously owned (existing) homes rose again in November (sales up .7%)
  2. Sales of existing home were up 15.4% from a year ago.
  3. Homeowner equity grew sharply
  4. Purchases of new homes were up slightly in November (were down in October).
  5. Underwater borrowers continued to decline in number (down 74% since 2012)
  6. Obama’s programs continue to help struggling homeowners.

New housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,226,000. This is 11.3 percent (±10.4%) above the revised November rate of 1,102,000 and is 5.7 percent (±12.0%)* above the December 2015 rate of 1,160,000.

Except for the increase in foreclosures, the report isn’t too bad — sales are up and prices are up yet there are signs that everyone is waiting to see what President Trump decides what to do. Were Obama’s policies more just to mitigate the situation his administration created? And will Trump’s drain the swamp clean up strategy leave the door wide open to economic growth in all states and cities burdened by the Democrat’s administration? We’ll need to keep an eye on how investment money flows and how long ailing regional markets might be regaining their strength in the years to come under Trumps new rules.

Home prices are rising faster than incomes, so this is likely to slow demand from buyers as affordability becomes an issue. Still from this we can see a strong demand for multi-unit residential dwellings and other rental properties. See which cities are best for rental income investment.

A factor that’s plaguing many cities who have foreign real estate buyers — Houses held off the market. See this report on foreign ownership of land in Los Angeles.

Home Equity is Up – Will this generate optimism, confidence, and more spending?

 

10 Top Factors in Housing Market Demand

Here’s 10 key macroeconomic factors to keep in mind before you invest in any particular city market across the US.

  1. demographics – how many immigrants and Millenials/Gen Xers are buying and how many babyboomers are selling?
  2. economic confidence – the mood of buyers and sellers?
  3. outlook – the general incomes and employment rates of Americans
  4. housing availability – how much resale and new construction units are available
  5. mortgage rates – how high are mortgage interest rates
  6. credit – how available are home loans and refinancing
  7. immigration trends – where are people leaving and going to
  8. consumer debt – home much debt overall are consumers/homebuyers carrying
  9. cost of living – how much are earnings and savings eroding or increasing
  10. govenment programs – how is government assisting with buyers – Freddie Mac, HUD, Fannie Mae




You can read even more explicitly about housing market factors in the Los Angeles Real Estate report. The stock market is another factor that can affect a home buyers decision and timing. Investment money can move from stocks to real estate thus putting upward pressure on home and condo values.

Price Trends: Before you make the decision to buy a home or sell your home, get some deep insight into these big data trends. In only 4 years, the average home price has risen $45k and as Zillow suggests, it will climb into 2017.

Mortgage Rates

Where are interest rates and mortgage rates headed?

Screencapture courtesy of http://longforecast.com/usmg/mortgage-rates-forecast-for-2015-2016-and-2017.html

Hot Economies – But Which are next

Read the best cities to invest report and you’ll see that cities such as Los Angeles, Miami, New York and San Francisco may not stay hot. Regional economic outlooks change. While Detroit and Warren Michigan looked really awful with the disappearance of their auto manufacturing business, they might now be the darlings of the real estate investment world. The San Francisco and Bay Area apartment rental market remains scorching hot, but will it remain so if the tech sector slides?

Graphic courtesy of JLL Research

The Trump Effect on Housing and the Economy

Over the last month there’s been a lot of hype and scare mongering regarding President Trump’s forecasted policies.  Certainly a number of factors could reduce demand for housing in the states of Florida, Texas, and California by removing millions of illegal aliens. The latest furor over mortgage rates surpassing 4% is not panning out as influential.

A recent Fox News report shows that prospective buyers would benefit more by buying than renting:

Under Trump’s plan, the amount of tax-exempt income for single filers may soar from $6,300 to $15,000, and the exemption for married couples could rise to $30,000. If that happens, fewer people would need to file itemized deductions and take the mortgage interest deduction.

If this is true, it would stimulate home construction and reduce upward pressure on rents which you know are out of control in some cities. Home construction would stimulate further economic activity which it always does.  You can read more of Fox’s report here: http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/12/06/heres-how-trumps-tax-plan-could-affect-housing-market.html

 

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