Migration in the US – Where is Everyone Going?

A study by John Burns Research & Consulting shows fewer Americans are still on the move between cities and states.
However, mobility has decreased back to normal levels post-pandemic. 2025 and the next 5 years should see increased migration due to shifting economic activity acoss the Country.

With the return of President Trump to office and the Republican control of the house and senate, there is little to stop his pro-American agenda. High-debt states and blue cities will see an exodus of businesses and workers as they leave for other places with lower unemployment and taxes, better wages, thriving industries, and a more favorable political environment including lower crime and drug use. It’s at this time that many Americans are sensing a once in a lifetime bull stock market boom for investment and for higher paying jobs in the coming tech-dominated economy.

The Big Shift to the South

The shift to Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Southern Carolina is already underway. As mortgage rates fall in 2025/2026, locked in homeowners will be able to sell their homes to eager buyers who benefit from more housing supply, lower down payments and more favorable lending criteria.

The housing market’s growth trend will likely appear in this spring’s market. Jobs, home prices, availability and lifestyle are big drivers of migration in the country. President Trump’s pro-America, low energy cost, low interest rate, and low tax panacea will excite not only the stock market, and boost the economy, but will energize local businesses in chronically undernourished parts of the country.

With a burgeoning Gen Z and Millennial population eager to buy, boosted by rising wages and new tech job opportunities, states such as Texas should thrive in the coming years. The shift of power and residents out of California will mark this new era in American history.

The Hunt for Affordability in Great, Right Sized, Livable Cities

Their study found the 2024 migration shift is a move to more affordable towns and cities near high-growth housing markets. The hunt is on for rare affordable cities with right-sized homes. Cities and states with strong economies and more developable land stand to see the highest demand for homes and in-migration this year and for the next 5 years.

Recent Migration Trends in 2024

The latest population migration data suggests that migration patterns in the United States are continuing to evolve, with these notable trends emerging:

Surge to the Sunbelt

The Sunbelt region, particularly the Southeast and Southwest, continues to attract a significant number of domestic migrants:

• Florida and Texas remain top destinations, with cities like Tampa, Orlando, Austin, and Dallas-Fort Worth seeing substantial population growth
• Phoenix, Arizona and Nashville, Tennessee are also experiencing notable influxes of new residents.

Exodus from High-Cost Areas
There’s an ongoing trend of people moving away from expensive coastal cities in the west and east:

• New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are still seeing net outflows of residents as local governments deal with the prospect of bankruptcy.
• Many are relocating to more affordable mid-sized cities or suburban areas with lower costs of living including affordable housing and lower inflation.

Rise of “Zoom Towns”
The continued prevalence of remote work is influencing migration patterns:

• Smaller cities with attractive amenities and lower cost of living are gaining popularity among remote workers.
• Areas with access to outdoor recreation, such as Boise, Idaho and Bend, Oregon, are seeing increased interest from millennials and young families.

Cities with Southern Charm
The South continues to be a major draw for migrants:

• Cities in North Carolina and South Carolina, such as Charlotte and Charleston, are experiencing significant growth rates.
  Atlanta, Georgia remains a popular destination, particularly for young professionals.

Midwest Affordability Revival
Some Midwestern cities are bucking the trend of outmigration:

• Columbus, Ohio and Indianapolis, Indiana are attracting new residents with their combination of job opportunities and affordability.
• Detroit, Michigan is showing signs of a comeback, with efforts to revitalize the city drawing in younger residents who like the ultra-affordable housing.

Extreme Weather Event Considerations
Weather and natural events are beginning to influence migration decisions, however, this is on a relatively small percentage nationwide.

• Some coastal areas prone to flooding or hurricanes are seeing slower growth or even population declines. Recent hurricanes in Florida wipe out residents financially leaving them to sell their land at a big loss.
• Inland cities with more stable climates are becoming increasingly attractive to hurricane-fearing movers.
• Fire-prone areas of California are suffering with a lack of growth as the cost of losses and new home insurance makes it too risky for many to live in.

Factors Driving Migration

A number of notable factors influence US migration patterns:

1. Economic opportunities: Cities with diverse and growing job markets continue to attract new residents. The trend to AI technology, cheaper energy, tax reduction and job opportunities will strongly affect American’s plans to move in the coming 5 years.
2. Remote work flexibility: Those who can and are willing to work from anywhere continues to shape migration numbers.
3. Affordability: Housing costs and overall cost of living remain major influences on choice of destinations.
4. Quality of life: geographies that offer plenty of unique nature and outdoor activities, cultural amenities, and good weather are increasingly important to Gen Z’s, Millennials and active Gen X’s.
5. Crime and Urban Decay: many cities are suffering from lax police enforcement, government funding deficits, excessive illegal immigrant populations, and overall social malaise in many big cities.

Unknown Factors

President Trump’s plan to block migrants at the southern border and expel millions of illegal migrants from around the world could change housing markets greatly. With fewer illegals, many markets would see a rise in housing supply and thus lower home prices and rent prices. It would also reduce inflation significantly and reduce government expenses related to the migrants.

Economic trade wars and military conflict may escalate to costly intervention, or could dissipate by 2026 if diplomacy and sanctions take their desired effect.

These trends will reshape the demographic landscape and housing markets in the United States, with implications for local economies, small business owners, and prosperity for Americans in the coming years.

Overall, it does look like an economic renaissance is about to happen in the USA which may help to ease the friction, strife and challenges the pandemic created. There will be great opportunities for real estate brokerages, Realtors, builders and mortgage agents and those who utilize effective real estate marketing strategies, will find themselves with a lions share of the coming boom in transactions.

See more on the best cities to buy a home and the 2025 housing market predictions.