Housing Market and Stock Market Forecasts

Boston Real Estate Market Forecast

 

Boston Housing Market 2021

The real estate market in Boston is beginning to heat up again as we head into the spring buying season.  In January, ales rose 13.5% YoY, and prices increased 11.6% over last January.

Greater Boston Association of Realtors reports that January’s home sales and single family home prices were a record for the month. Average price for a house was $674,950, down slight from $680,000 in December.  Days on market for houses dropped 32% YoY and down 2.2% from December.

 

And for condo sales, it was the most active January ever. Condo prices in Boston reached a new record for January with a median price of $584,000 which only up marginally from 12 months ago.

The pandemic dramatically affected the 2020 housing market and its effects still linger. The demand for single-detached homes for home offices, more room, and for millennials raring to start families is evident.

 

“The housing market is really strange right now,” said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin. “Nearly two-thirds of homebuyers are making an offer sight unseen over the last year.”  – from report in boston25news.com.

Across Massachusetts the trend seems even stronger. According to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, January single-family home sales grew  7.8% condo sales jumped 9.8% above January 2020 numbers.

In the graphic below, we see Boston home prices history timeline (with single family prices in the light blue line). Last summer’s price growth was steep, yet with the end of the pandemic within sight, house prices in July could jump again likely reaching $750,000. Given slow home construction, latent demand, Fed stimulus spending, a recovering Boston economy, and severe housing supply shortages, that prediction might be too conservative.

 

Screenshot courtesy of GBREB

Some of the increase in prices and a damper on sales comes from a lack of housing supply typical of all US housing markets.  Single-family home stock is down 64% and supply of condos has dropped 26.1% from January 2020.

The median sales price in Massachusetts in January increased 15.3% to $467,000 for single-family houses (from $405,000 in January 2020). And Massachusetts median condo sales price increased 3.65 to $419,400 from 12 months ago.

 

New listings for houses fell considerably (-17.1%) and dropped 3.2% for condos.

 

Housing Supply in Boston

Screenshot courtesy of GBREB.

 

GBREB’s January Video Report Discusses January’s market transactions acrosss the Greater Boston Metro Area.

Active Listings

Active House and Condo Listings in Boston, MA. Screenshot courtesy of GBAR.

Screenshot courtesy of GBAR

New Listings in the Greater Boston Metro Area

Some Realtors mentioned they expect prices to moderate and more supply to come into the market as things return to normal, as the pandemic eases. Yet, supply is ultra scarce and sellers have nowhere to go.

“A robust increase in housing starts in December points to an active year for new construction, but higher material costs, especially lumber, and a limited supply of buildable lots will temper the number of new units,” from a report in Bizjournals.

And buyers who were sidelined due to employment uncertainty may enter the market this summer too.  The Boston housing market forecast then has to be for higher prices this summer and perhaps into the fall season as well, as more buyers get back on their feet financially. With mortgage rates staying low for now, and the fear of missing out trend in control, buyer demand should stay strong.

Greater Boston Massachusetts Homes for Sale new listing. Screenshot courtesy of GBAR

Metro Boston Region

How about Metro Boston communities of Arlington, Belmont, Boston, Brookline, Cambridge, Chelsea, Dedham, Everett, Milton, Newton, Revere, Somerville, Waltham, Watertown, and Winthrop?

 

City Boston Home Sales

City of Boston Home Sales Summary. Screenshot courtesy of GBAR

Boston Neighborhood Report

Screenshot couretsy of Massachusetts Association of Realtors report.

 

Massachusetts Cities. Screenshot courtesy of Massachusetts Association of Realtors

 

Zillow Boston Market Report

Zillow rates the Boston housing market as somehat competitive (60 out of a 100).

 

 

Please do share this report on Boston’s housing Market

 

Condo Sales in Massachusetts in February 2020

Take a good look at this heatmap of rental prices, and it might give you a good idea of home prices as well. The further you go from Downtown Boston, the more likely you are to find affordable homes. Be forewarned of Boston’s congested, time consuming commutes to which I can attest are as bad as any.

Boston Home Prices Compared to California?

Compare prices here to cities such as San Diego, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, and buyers might be more at ease with buying in Boston.

Investors might want to review properties outside of Boston city such as Easton, Lawrence, Worcester, Lynn, Salem, Stoughton, Framingham, Brockton, and Dedham. They’re nice communities and there’s plenty of property to build on.

However, it looks as though home prices are about to rise in Boston. So the questions: “should I buy a house?” or “should I sell my house” in Boston aren’t easy to answer. To help with a sell decision, see the post on selling tips and on best renovation for ROI.

What Supports the Boston area Economy?

Boston has a strong regional economy bolstered by transportation, tourism, financial services, and increasingly venture capital. Boston is becoming the Silicon Valley of the north with major influx of funding for startups in FinTech, MedTech and EduTech. Ultimately, all decisions to buy a home in Boston relate back to the US economy, US housing market, and the Massachusetts economy.

Forecast For Boston GDP

Chart courtesy of Open Source Graph

Boston’s Powerful Economic Engine

Boston’s economy is a power house yet restrictions on immigration will retard its output. Retiring babyboomers (although many are continuing to work) and a full employment situation mean growth will be constrained by a lack of workers, including skilled workers from other countries.

It’s good news for workers in other cities and states who need jobs. If you can find somewhere to live in Boston, you should have little trouble finding a great job.

Finding a Home In Boston’s Many Neighborhoods

If you’re thinking of a move to Boston, you’ll want to scout out the most affordable neighborhood for you and your family. Prices vary a great deal. NAR reports these recent prices:

Area Units For Sale Units For Rent Median
Listing Price
Back Bay 172 324 $1,900,000
Beacon Hill 70 98 $1,200,000
South End 186 226 $1,300,000
Back Bay East 85 148 $1,800,000
Downtown Boston 100 165 $1,800,000
Brook Farm 64 31 $694,000
Back Bay West 52 118 $1,300,000
North End 59 104 $1,100,000
Telegraph Hill 61 105 $889,900
Columbus 74 82 $1,600,000
Washington Park 26 23 $579,000
City Point 60 74 $889,000
Columbia Point 56 89 $632,500
Shawmut 70 79 $1,500,000

 

There you have a good look at the State of Massachusetts and the Boston Housing market in spring of 2020.

 

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