Alberta Separation from Canada?
The G7 meeting held in Kananaskis, Alberta this week, a perhaps too majestic setting in the Rocky Mountains of Canada. However, the photo op event makes it the perfect time for Americans, Brits, Australians, Germans, and Asian readers to get an authentic view of what’s going on here in Canada.
Canada is facing the biggest challenge of its 168-year existence and the threat is more than just Trump tariffs.
Our country is divided over its own unity and the relationship its 10 provinces have with the Canadian government located in Ottawa. And there’s also a stressed economic partnership with the US under Donald Trump who is mocking Canada with his “we don’t need anything from Canada” and his 51st state offer.
The recent Canadian election featured hysterics over the Trump US tariff threat and the Liberal party and its new leader Mark Carney (former Bank of England governor) campaigned with an “elbows up” fighting stance against Trump. Fast forward to today and it’s been the reverse response lacking any legitimate plan to move Canada forward. Canada has no political or economic leverage as Trump is cancelling the USMCA trade deal which ends auto imports into the US, and levies 25% to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and more.
The Federal government neglected to build trade relations with the rest of the world.
The correct strategy for this challenge is to open up International trade and build new connections. It turns out that exports of Western natural resources is a key to making that successful. But the Liberals purposely closed down investment in natural resources, overtaxed them, and restricted exports. Now, they’re in trouble.
In Alberta, a steady growing emotion is building about rejecting the Liberal agenda and separating from Canada.
The Prime Minister threatens retaliation as he puts it, and that may involve both import tariffs on US goods and export tariffs on Canadian oil from Alberta heading south.
When the going gets tough for Carney, he suggests Alberta should be the lever against Trump. If it weren’t for the anti-oil lobby and Liberal media jabs at the West, eastern Canadians wouldn’t know the West existed. As you’ll discover here, and perhaps not surprisingly, the matter is about money and political power.
Carney is an anti-carbon energy extremist writing books and manifestos on suppressing it in favor of debt-based alternative energy. His stance is in cement, and his public identity is based on ending carbon-based energy. He intends to create political and trade agreements with Europe, which would require adherence to European standards. Having Europe control Canada’s energy usage, cost and production is a national security threat. Europe’s experiment with socialism has created disastrous consequences and makes experts worry that those countries will collapse.
Europe’s socialism in the great free country of Canada is entirely inappropriate.
Canada’s Economic Performance Has Been Abysmal
The Canadian economy has underperformed even with massive government spending sprees. There have been huge immigration inflows with no purpose or plan which burden every area of government. They’ve been pulled into a country with insufficient jobs, healthcare and housing. This has created inflation, homelessness, cultural erosion, conflict, drug and crime problems, and housing prices are out of reach for nearly all Canadians.
Now on the cusp of the AI era and AI unemployment, all Canadians are afraid. It’s put an entire country on edge.
Of recent, there’s some new appeasement talk between the Ottawa and Alberta governments going on, but very little of it is sincere. It’s mostly media game-playing. We’ll hear more of it today at the G7 meeting.
But Would an Alberta Separation be the Right Solution?
The issue of Canada collapsing is real. However, what Canadians fear most, with Alberta separating, may actually work out well for the country. With that province out of mind, Ottawa and other provinces can continue on without friction and manipulation to focus on a new and needed economic strategy for the industrial east. Alberta’s secession and new prosperity could inspire all other 9 provinces.
Alberta is fed up with the Liberal Party and its oppression. The overreach, taxes, and regulations have strangled the province.
This oil and gas rich province wants to sell (and refine/process) all the natural resources it has, unfettered by restrictive and politically motivated regulations and taxation from Ottawa. The opportunity is now, particularly as the US and global economies grow. Alberta offers a valuable bitumen product that international industry needs and when more is produced in the province, it helps lower oil prices and gasoline prices, and consumer products, creates value-added supply for buyers, and reduces inflation, thus supporting the good functioning of economies.
Producing oil in Alberta is preferable to countries buying it from evil regimes such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. This is good for global security.
Alberta Could Lose More of its Potential Opportunity if it remains Under the Control of the Liberal Party
This province is incredibly rich in in energy resources (est $8 Trillion) with the potential to lead in technology as well. Money after all, can fund a lot of enterprise and attract even more foreign direct investment. On the other hand, it’s estimated (by the Conservative Party of Canada) that the country has lost a half a trillion dollars in foreign investment due to the Federal Government’s prohibitive regulations — designed to keep foreign investors from boosting Alberta’s economy and growing political power.
IMO, the key to the Ottawa Liberal Party strategy is to strangle Alberta’s economy, keeping oil in the ground, forcing Alberta to cough up royalty payments which are transferred to Quebec and Ontario, and to prevent the province’s political power. Ottawa and the Liberal Party of Canada are now viewed as enemies by Albertans. Alberta’s current jobless rate of 7.8% is sticking in the craw of residents. None of this should have happened.
The Ottawa regulations have technical and ideological-based dampeners which in effect, stop Alberta from exercising its full economic and business development rights from oil, beef, and agriculture, and force it to pay a European-Union-inspired Carbon Tax. This tax increases inflation, raises energy and agricultural prices (fertilizers), reduces GDP, and lowers European’s standard of living. Importing that into Canada needs to be discussed by all Canadians, not adopted by a dictator.
Tax Payers calculates the Liberal’s carbon tax costs Canadians $12 billion per year. Further while on this thread, the Liberals have awarded the Ukraine $20 billion dollars to fight their war with Putin while many Canadians are homeless and starving.
The full effect here in Canada is the oppression of 5 million people directly, along with economic losses for 20 million other Canadians (excluding Quebec). The Ottawa-based Liberal Party’s Bill C69 is one such legislation with endless restrictions on producing energy products and exporting them anywhere (pipelines, production caps, advertising bans). The bill uses every possible tactic to block Alberta and remove its rights.
Clearly, these are the acts of enemies. After 50 years of this behavior, there are still naive people who believe it might end soon.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has forwarded a 19-point list of demands that Ottawa needs to take, including rescinding the Carbon Tax and Bill C69. Prime Minister Carney has indicated that won’t be happening. Instead, FED actions look like a trap is being laid for Alberta, leading it into newly crafted agreements (traps) that will create lasting legal barriers to prevent separation or full control of Alberta’s own wealth.
The Premier must be careful of any agreements that could harm Alberta for another decade.
It’s Unfair but Ottawa Doesn’t Care – It Only wants the Funds to Keep Flowing
Alberta (and Saskatchewan and BC, the other two Western Canadian provinces) has been paying an unfair amount of tax compared to other provinces, to the tune of more than $244 billion (estimate). It’s known as the transfer tax. Most of those funds have been distributed to the provinces of New Brunswick and Quebec/Ontario which enjoy economies 2 to 3 times larger than Alberta. Seems very unfair to subsidize wealthy provinces in the east, yet there hasn’t been much outcry about that.
The loss of these funds to reinvest and a lack of provincial autonomy has outraged Albertans for half a century. There’s now a call for the province to stand up to the Canadian Federal government and perhaps, separate from Canada.
Gaining Clarity About Alberta’s Strengths and Capabilities
And in fact, Alberta’s separation might be the right choice for everyone.
The reason Alberta hasn’t separated is due to a lack of confidence, lack of belief in their human rights, and the confusion over where the province would head if they seceded from Canada. It’s this last part about the foggy, hazy cloud of confusion about what’s next and the benefits and risks of separation that’s particularly important. As long as there’s no laser clarity about the matter, only about a third of Albertans believe separation is wise.
There’s been no calculations about the outcome.
When we look at the full picture of value and rights, we’ll likely come to the conclusion that Alberta should separate from Canada. In fact, with Alberta removed from the picture, Ontario and Quebec might be better off too. The Atlantic provinces and the territories however would be in big trouble. Saskatchewan and BC would gain their full right to produce and export to the world.
It’s a new picture of freedom from harmful regulations and a renewed sense of joy in purpose.
If the eastern provinces from Manitoba to Newfoundland were to join together, their new currency would be low valued, giving them a sizable cost-competitive advantage internationally. Without the Western provinces resource exports, the Canadian dollar would plummet. And Alberta would go on to create its own currency which would be highly valued against the USD.
But recently, the Liberal’s news channel known as the CBC, posted a report that Newfoundland’s oil riches are a threat to national unity. This warns Newfoundland that Ontario/Quebec are eyeballing their oil wealth. Carney has proposed pushing billions of dollars into the CBC.
5 Million Happy People Awakening to a Grand Opportunity
Alberta’s 5 million population would open to the world, creating incredible entrepreneurial business opportunities. So much so, that millions more people would try to emigrate there. Calgary’s population is one of the fastest in Canada. Hundreds of thousands of new homes would be built, with considerable commercial and industrial construction too. That growth would fuel exports from Ontario and Quebec (steel, aluminum, copper, consumer products). BC would benefit from the financial overflow from pipelines and business activity in Eastern BC.
The emancipation of Alberta would generate incredible economic activity even if oil prices stuck at $60 a barrel or less. Alberta can generate profit at $40 USD a barrel (or lower with expected increased production). It’s bitumen is rare and the US has none of it. While Trump says he doesn’t need Alberta oil, the US does need it. US economic growth is forecast to be strong after 2025 and their demand for heavy oil will provide a strong market to sell into. Europe and Asia are hungry for Canadian quality oil too.
With oil pipelines delayed and blocked by Ottawa, Alberta would pay Saskatchewan and Manitoba well for shipping access through Hudson’s Bay out to European markets and the North American east coast. Pipelines through BC could add another $23 billion of energy sales to Asia every year.
Alberta is mineral-rich too. Estimates are of $100 billion in potash, tens of billions in copper and zinc, and coal worth hundreds of billions. It also has a very rich reserves of Uranium.
Total estimates of non-energy assets is from $200 to $500 billion CAD. Not quite up to the $8 Trillion in energy, but a nice addition. Albertans would save substantially on onerous Federal taxes and regulatory costs, thus supporting an economic explosion. Bottom line with Alberta separating from Canada, by itself, or in a new Western Canadian Alliance, is a surge of wealth and well-being for residents. Alberta’s immigration system would filter out undesirables.
A New Start for All the Provinces
For the rest of the provinces, there would be new freedoms and economic spinoff benefits. Given the numbers of Albertans who originated from the other provinces, relations with them would be positive.
On the risk/cost side, the province would need to develop its own military, constitution, homeland intelligence and border security force. If energy prices plummet, the province would see a substantial loss of economic activity and taxes. The new government would need to develop a disaster plan.
With respect to Canadian debt obligations, the province would negotiate to assume its portion of the massive accumulated Canadian debt – which is how Liberals finance a country. On a population basis however, Alberta’s portion could be manageable. With open eyes and minds, this potential freedom from a disastrously managed Federal government can generate benefits for Alberta but for all Canadian provinces too.
We don’t know what this impending separation will look like, whether just Alberta or whether a Western Canadian Alliance. And it could be, another election will be called in 2026, where Canadians would realize the Liberals must go. That would likely end the need for an Alberta separation. Premier Smith likely knows this is most likely outcome.
But for Canadians to make good decisions, they need clarity on the problem and what the outcomes will be. The Liberal media will not be participating in Alberta’s natural trajectory, only to hamper it, which will anger Albertans even more.
Bookmark my blog and return to see vital updates on the Alberta/Canada separation issue.
