Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2018

April 5, 2018.  The February TREB report isn’t hugely informative, however it does reiterate the downward housing market in Toronto.  The Toronto housing market shrank 39% in March 2018 compared to March of 2017.

Strangely, home prices rose 2.2% vs February, so are we seeing the beginning of the turnaround?  Hope isn’t enough in a repressive market.  Change is needed and it looks like the factors will align this summer.

Although news reports suggest the market is stabilizing, there doesn’t seem to be a bottom in sight yet for luxury homes. They took a precipitous fall this winter. Those who didn’t sell last spring and fall may have been feeling sick all winter long.

Time to Prepare to Sell Your Home or Condo?

The monthly stats below and trends seem to be predicting this may be the best time to sell your home. I’ve predicted a boom after the election, and if we improve our trade agreement with the US, GTA home prices and the Canadian dollar should jump.




Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices may plummet further in February and March only to begin a strong rise in April. Why? The election in 4 months and the NAFTA fears will have abated.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

Share the Toronto Real Estate Market forecast on FB or Linkedin.

Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Share this detailed monthly home prices report with your friends.



Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Houses for Sale in the Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moving to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.

 

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Calgary Real Estate Market Forecast 2018 ⌂ BC Pipeline Oil Price Update Home Prices Calgary Airdrie Downtown Condos Apartments

Calgary Housing Market and Update

What’s the forecast for Calgary’s housing market for 2018 and beyond? Right now, it’s cautiously optimistic for buyers who are in a good position to benefit from a growing pool of housing stock Calgary in summer 2018.

The real estate market in Calgary has been in the dumps for several years, however with the price of oil hitting $66 today (May delivery), it’s getting interesting for buying and rental property investment.

Calgary’s challenge is similar to other North American cities with a lack of supply. Listings of homes dropped almost 50% in some areas of thecity from last summer. These might be gobbled up fast if energy prices rise quickly this summer.

Unemployment however has dropped in the last 2 years and many believe the recovery is well underway — powered up by rising oil prices in US dollars x rising production numbers.




OPEC Willing to Throttle Output

Yes, Calgary is more than oil, but oil money is hard to ignore. Alberta needs the investment funds that flow in when Oil prices rise.

With OPEC cutting oil production output, and oil prices jumping past $66 a barrel (WTI) it’s awakening the oil patch. Alberta’s oil production rose to record levels in the last two months. Multiply that by rising prices and the economic outcome should be obvious.

Twice now, during the early winter, prices rebounded. The price is showing peristence. If it does this for 3 more months, investors will being loading money back into the Alberta economy.

The political situation in the US is calming down, US economic health is improving rapidly, and by shutting out China, the US will be keeping billions and attracting more investment money.  Big picture looks really good. Prospect of a US housing collapse are low, even though Americans are very wary. That’s just smart.




If you’re considering moving to Calgary to work this year, be forewarned that Calgary is rated worst for affordability for lower income earners.

As of February 2018, average rent for an apartment in Calgary is $1129 which is a 12% decrease from last year when the average rent was $1264 , and a 3.72% increase from last month when the average rent was $1087.  — from RentJungle Report

Calgary Housing Market Stats

As you’ll note sales are down from 18 months ago, and those were recession numbers. Most of the buying and selling were in the first half of the year, and there was a burst of buying due to the Fed mortgage rule changes.

It’s worse than it looks. However with the economy on the upswing and oil prices pushing through $55, there is some optimism.




In February, listings and sales fell yet home prices kept level. CREB suggests a steady path to recover and a market very similar to 2017. They suggest rising interest rates, tougher mortgage rules, and stagnating wages should calm the market this year. Financial people are always citing microeconomic factors and mortgage rates as housing market factors, however people buy when the economy is good and is promising.

The Stampede chuck wagon advertising auction created $3.2 million in bids. The oil patch seems to be optimistic!

Calgary Housing Report for February 2018

Calgary Monthly Housing Stats February 2018 January 2018 October 2017 October 2016 September 2017
Total Homes Sales 657 583 910 1031 919
New Listings 1,293 1,288 1,483 1,326 1,873
Active Listings 2,456 2,199 3,250 2,574 3,479
Median Price 495,000 474,000 474,250 464,000 482,000
Average Price 575,407 575,407 544,984 529,378 556,372
Pending Sales 58 102
Days on Market 45 55 44 42 42

Above stats courtesy of CREB

South Calgary is the hot spot with 249 homes sold in February. The south has 799 homes listed for sale. 275 apartments were sold in downtown Calgary in February and there are 730 units available.  CREB expects sales of apartments to fall slightly in 2018, so buyers might have the upper hand this spring.

The Globe and Mail reports that 30% of Alberta’s new inventory remains unsold. This has to be one of the best buyers markets ever for investors, as long as you don’t mind waiting for the payoff.

And with housing prices predominantly in the $300k to $500k range, Calgary is still considered affordable, especially compared to Toronto and Vancouver where life is painful for renters, mortgage holders, and buyers in waiting.



Chart courtesy of CREB. Timeline of Calgary home prices

Even the experts are voicing caution, probably because they’re not sure themselves who has control of oil prices, and whether the BC pipeline issue will be solved. And BC doesn’t seem to be batting an eye, as gas prices there rose above $1.50 a litre.

Rachel Notley pointed out the BC premier’s ironic and hypcritical stance on Alberta oil with his new subsidies for LNG projects in BC. BC gas prices look like they’ll go sky high by May and June and the resistance might begin to wane at that point.

Gas Price shock – Photo Courtesy of CTV.ca

And besides the BC carbon tax, and the investment killing removal of the corporate tax rate cut, there’s also the matter of how much Vancouver’s housing market can take as interest rates rise too.

This is a text book test of the merit and wisdom of government regulation. BC’s government run auto insurance sector is already in deep trouble, rumoured to be on the verge of bankruptcy.

Not only does Alberta ease the prices BC drivers pay for gasoline, the Federal taxes on oil production are steep and distributed to the other provinces. Everyone benefits when Alberta’s energy sector thrives. It’s vital for Canada.

The WTI WCS price differential is a painful loss for Alberta Oil producers and of late it’s gotten worse due to pipeline bottlenecks. Will it get worse this year?

Alberta’s production capacity is impressive and has recovered by 7,000 m3 from 2 years ago. The issue is getting it to world markets.




With the US and global economies looking good (the recent tariff issue with China should be resolved), demand for energy and oil is forecast to be strong. BP forecasts a strong demand from developing countries.

International investors with a long term investment strategy should compare what you can buy in Calgary for $400,000 vs what you’ll get in the Vancouver market or Toronto market areas and you can see the long term investment advantages.  Calgary is a much easier place to do buiness and buy real estate.

Calgary’s spectacular Peace Bridge for pedestrians and cyclists spans the Bow River

Which are The Best Neighbourhoods to Buy a Home in Calgary?

As a long time resident, I can tell you there are many excellent neighbourhoods, with great schools, shopping, and recreation. All of it is accessible.

If you enjoy exercise, you may find the communities along with the Bow River best. There is a cycling/walking trail on both sides and the mountain biking park at Canada Olympic Park is on it too.

If you like beautiful views, Calgary has plenty. The northwest area of Calgary including those communities near Spy Hill, Coach Hill, and Nose Hill Park offer amazing views, and lofty prices too. The neighbourhoods on the northwest outskirts of the city offer unbelievable panoramic views of the Rocky Mountains to the west. Expect million dollar prices here. Homes on Spy Hill and Coach Hill offer incredible views of almost all of Calgary and the spectacular downtown skyline.

If water sports like sailing and windsurfing are important to you, Calgary has a number of man made lakes in the south end. The South has the largest selection of homes, with the Northwest next in number.

If you like cosmopolitan, the neighborhoods near downtown Calgary will appeal to you with the shops and walkability. And downtown’s plus 15 walkway system is close by too.  Downtown city centre is where the condos are and virtually everything you need is here on 7th, 8th and 9th Avenue . The Bow River pathway is adjacent and Calgary’s convenient light rail transit can wisk you away to shopping in the south end of the city.

With the recession now largely in the rear view mirror, and with the price of oil rising steadily, homebuyers and property investors will be looking at Calgary homes differently.

With house prices so low, the expectation for buying residential properties in 2018 will improve. For speculators, the Calgary market is tantalizing, given that home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Bay Area, New York, and Miami have peaked.

Calgary’s low price entry point offers a great long term potential. And the selection of luxury homes in Calgary is as spectacular as the landscapes and views from many of the properties.

Inmigration to Calgary is rising and mortgage rates remain low. Although made in Canada housing policies will constrain the market, the outlook for Calgary real estate is for growth. The extent of that growth of course depends on the price of oil and the value of the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar.




The Price of Oil – Already Above Expectations

Oil Prices were never expected to rise near $50 yet are above $55 now. The Saudis have proven they control the price of oil, not markets. Tough to predict what they’ll do however their recent actions show some resolve and purpose. The fact prices have reached $55, well above the limits predicted by all the experts has to indicate something.

OIL Prices Screen Capture courtesy of Marketwatch.com

The World Bank may have posted the best forecast for oil prices through to 2020.

Screen capture courtesy of the IMF

You can check all the oil price predictions for yourself.

 

 




Price to list ratio revels that those putting up their houses for sale are receving 95.7% of their list price.
Total sales volume of apartment dropped slightly, however total sales in dollars dropped by $5 million compared to September.

Screenshot courtesy of CREB.com

Economic Predictions for Calgary

If oil continues to rise steadily in price, Alberta stands to recover economically. Businesses have pared down their costs and are better able to profit from growth. Although not officially a big component of the rosy Canadian economic forecast, Alberta and Calgary are keys to the future.

Alberta’s economy is much more diversified than it used to be however it is impossible to replace the revenue generation of the Canadian oil sands, the world’s largest pool of untapped oil reserves.

The price of WTI oil just reached $56, well above $30 a barrel last year, and there are indications the Saudis intend to cut production. The wise course of action is for governments to support the oil sands and other more costly production methods to grow oil supply. This would prevent OPEC from harming the growing US economy and the global economic upswing.

CREB’s 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Update

In the Calgary Real Estate Board’s most recent 2017 Calgary Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market update, CREB believes the pace of economic recovery will be slow but stable. Stagnant employment, wages, slow immigration, tighter mortgage lending restrictions, and made for Vancouver/Toronto economic policies will weigh on the Calgary housing market.

The latest report does forecast for 2018. However, Alberta’s economic performance is expected to be well up at 4.3% for all of 2017. New construction housing starts will be well down this year at around 3500 units. Multifamily housing starts are down just slightly from 2016 levels.



Screen capture courtesy of CREB.com. Stats courtesy of CMHC.

Total house sales were precisely forecasted to be 600 higher in 2017 than 2016 with a price similar. Dead on accurate. New listings will total 32,731, 400 for the full year. Sales of apartment will rise slightly over last years numbers at about 2800 units.

The loonie remains around 78 cents CAD vs USD, maintaining an excellent premium on exports from Calgary, and exports of Alberta oil. Forex experts believe the US dollar forecast is upward, while the Canadian dollar forecast is downward.

If new construction starts are constrained, then the resale market may grow in the neighbourhood of 1% in 2018, 2% in 2019 and perhaps 3% in 2019.  Of course, all predictions rest on the price of oil which as mentioned, the Saudis and OPEC control.  And US shale production and drilling rig counts seem to moderate upward increases in oil prices.

The last word on the Calgary Real Estate Forecast is positive. Oil price is rising, the US dollar is climbing with President Trump’s new tax cut to raise the US dollar value. With Alberta’s growth currently reported at 6%, a solid Canadian economic forecast at 3.7% growth in 2018, we’re running out of reasons why Calgary isn’t going to boom in 2018.

Note: the preceding post is not meant as specific investment advice, but rather as a comparison of real estate investment or home buying opportunities. Please ensure you discuss all investments with a licensed professional.

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Florida Housing Forecast 2018 2019 | Real Estate Trends in Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Housing Report 2018

A perfect storm of demand, supply and economic factors are making Florida an excellent a great place to buy real estate. See the price projections for the major cities below.

The housing market in Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Panama City, Sarasota, Naples, Fort Launderdale, and even Boca Raton are compelling real estate investment value propositions for snowbirds and other buyers in North America. As you’ll see, sunny and warm Florida home prices are quite reasonable.

Interest in buying Florida properties from buyers seems to grow and wane through the weeks and months. Although January and February are a lull in demand, the Florida economy is too strong to see that continue. The recent tax changes may discourage speculative investment for a while but buyers will be back in the spring.




The Florida housing market in 2017 was characterized by a lack of new construction, big price reductions on new condos, a disappearance of South American property buyers, softened house and condo prices, and of course, low taxation rates. If the glut of condo building in Miami is now complete, then we may see upward pressure on condo prices.

Choosing Your Florida Home Style

The variety of homes in Florida is astonishing.  From modern 3 bedroom bungalows to condos in towering buildings to quaint beach houses to spacious multi-million dollar mansions, you can have your dream life, walk the beaches, shop for hours, and never have to shovel snow.  For a lot of buyers, that’s a compelling value proposition.

With more babyboomers hoping to retire somewhere nice, and who have been holding onto their old home because they have nowhere to go, will find Florida a compelling value proposition in real estate investment.

The Houston real estate market, San Diego Real Estate market, Seattle real estate market, Vancouver real estate market and even the Costa Rica Real Estate market are also preferred destinations for retirees and those looking for luxury homes.

PWC in its new major US housing report names Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach as the 3rd highest target destination from migrating people from other cities in the US.

The luxury real estate market was hit hard in Florida, and there is an oversupply of luxury homes. However, interest and sales are expected to rebound (From US and soon Canadian buyers as the CAD falls), and homes for sale in Fort Lauderdale, Naples, and Miami are expected to rise.

8 Things to Consider Before you Buy a Home in Florida

Whether you’re buying a second home/vacation home or you’re considering moving to warm, sunny Florida, consider a few matter beforehand:

  1. can you afford to live in the region or neighborhoods you have targeted?
  2. which cities and neighborhoods are safe and pleasant to live in?
  3. summers are hot and humid. Can you take the heat and the indoor life?
  4. do you like golf, fishing, walking the beach, boating, and water sports?
  5. how well can you run your business from Florida and how much back and forth travel will you need to do?
  6. what is the actual cost of living?
  7. how much will your mortgage payments be for the next 10 years?
  8. is there a true demand for your area of work/profession?

Some people love Florida and some don’t like it at all. If you could live there during the winter only, as many snowbirds from New York, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Washington do, it’s might be a no brainer. All you’d have to focus on is finding a home and getting it at a bearable price.




Florida’s $1 Trillion Dollar Economy

Florida’s economic performance was outstanding again in 2017 which is why it was attracting so many new residents and home buyers. Orlando’s population growth was 18% over the last and disposable income growth over the last 5 years was an amazing 12.8%.

South Florida’s population hit 6 million for the first time, and Miami Dade hit 2.7 million residents. Tampa Sarasota region was in the top 10 nationally for population growth and Orlando saw 48,000 new residents arrive.

That’s generated strong demand for housing and rental units in South Florida.

As reported in Tampabay.com, the Florida economy will reach $1 Trillion this year and $1.074 trillion in 2019. Florida is an important state having 5% of the US economy but 10% of new jobs. Tourism and housing were the key industries.

Hurricane Irma and the destruction of the citrus crop have suppressed the Florida economy and the state has difficulty attracting skilled workers. Wages do lag, yet real estate in Florida overall is very reasonably priced. Only Texas is a better bargain.

With the Florida economy rolling along nicely, there’s no reason to believe there is a downside to buying property in the Sunshine State. And sunshine is a key benefit for most buyers here.

Interest in Orlando and Tampa real estate has been particularly strong and that’s likely due to the lower prices. Even homes in Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale are half the price as those in Miami.

However the economies in Tampa and Orlando are holding their own and drawing in new residents due to lower than expected prices on condos and homes.

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Effects

The experts are still struggling with the affects of the Feds tax bill, amidst a housing slowdown and slightly rising interest rates.

What the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act does mean:

  1. sales of homes between $750,000 to $1 million will slow because loan interest isn’t tax deductible any longer
    purchases from New York buyers seems to be growing
  2. income tax cuts for almost everyone means people will have more money to buy real estate and pay mortgages
  3. the reform retains sellers’ capital gains exemption, which excludes the first $500,000 in profits for couples and the first $250,000 for single filers

Let’s not forget Florida’s benefit of no state tax. Combine that with the reduced federal tax cuts, and companies that are bringing their manufacturing and head offices back to the US should find Florida an ideal place to come home to.

Florida Home Prices

According to Zillow, home prices in Florida average $216,000 which is up 7.3% from last year. They’re expected to rise more slowly in 2018 at 2.5%. By the end of 2018, the average home price will be $221,000. That has to look good to home sellers in Boston and New York, as well as Canadian buyers in Toronto, who have home values that rival the highest in Miami.

Chart courtesy of Zillow.com. Comparison of home prices with California, Texas, New York and Nevada 2018

Florida Home Prices and Predictions

City Zillow Home Price
Zillow Price End of 2018
Miami $295,400 302000
Hialeah $200,700 247000
Fort Myers $193,100 209000
Saint Petersburg $163,500 197000
Tampa $163,000 204000
Tallahassee $161,600 172000
Orlando $155,400 184000
Jacksonville $140,300 168000
Pensacola $121,000 143000
Fort Lauderdale $293,200 292000
Boca Raton $328,500 326000
Naples $330,800 330000
Sarasota $273,200 273000
Miami Beach $381,100 365,000
Kissimmee $174,600 183000
Port St Lucie $204,000 211000
Cape Coral 220200 226000
Pembroke Pines 288900 289000
Clearwater 213800 220000

When is the best time to buy real estate?  Find out more about the best investments in 2018 including investing in real estate in 2018.

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Forecasting Toronto House Prices for 2018 | IBM’s Watson’s Forecast

Artificial Intelligence in the Real Estate Market

Are you all abuzz about what artificial intelligence will tell us about the real estate market in 2018? Can AI predict a housing crash or what will future housing prices be in Toronto?

Will house prices in Toronto fall? How about condos? We could read the forecasts of any number of Canadian experts to get a good idea. Most seem to be suggesting that home prices will level off for the entire year of 2018.

Can forecasters predict government policy changes, trade conflicts, OPEC price jumps, and other factors that might play on house prices? Probably not. So why would artificial intelligence software systems be any better at it?

Turns out TREB has a huge volume of data that could be fed into an artificial intelligence system and reveal some very interesting patterns and housing market predictions. (and wait till Blockchain technology leverages housing data)

A Lot of Experts and Scientists Believe in AI

Just recently Better Dwellings fed Toronto housing market data into IBM’s artificial intelligence product called Watson. After processing that data and looking for factors that most accurately foretold of price changes, Watson apparently concluded that only a few factors only showed relevance.

1.   total listings / DOM

2.  DOM / new listings

3.  DOM / sales

According to IBM’s Watson, each of thse 3 scored a 94% relevance in affecting or predicting average price changes.
So days on market is the factor not many would not have guessed.  Have you ever heard housing experts speak of days on market?

It seems to point back to housing supply as the main factor in price increases.

So with more homes coming on the market, prices will probably fall in the Toronto housing market in 2018.
Of course, we don’t know the exact mathematics of it, but the AI system would likely know the price change if 10% more houses were introduced, and if the DOM fell by 10%. It’s likely that if all 3 factors had the same 94% relevance, that they might actually be measuring the same numbers.

In any case, prices show a consistent yearly rise, so even when we factor out last spring’s madness, it still suggests a price rise. So who do we believe, the experts or the AI system?

Is the market that liquid that if listings across the GTA rise 10% such that a guaranteed corresponding sales decrease would happen as well?

A bigger factor in forecasting housing prices would be the Toronto economy and the Canadian economic forecast. A rosy one might cause price increases. And the fed’s mortgage and lending policies, along with the age of home buyers might chime in too.  But those factors could be fed into an AI software system to create some new revised estimates.  Check out a more human forecast of Toronto’s housing market and the US housing market.

Artificial Intelligence is Already Influencing our Lives

From finding a cure for cancer to taking over complete management of marketing campaigns, artificial intelligence seems to pack a lot of value. Learn more about Marketing AI software if you’re one of those companies beginning to revamp your human resource deployment.

I’m excited about AI marketing solutions. In my conversations with software companies, I’m discovering how much power it gives a creative, innovative marketer. I feel like I can lift a company’s campaign performance by 300% to 400%. Some companies are.

Combine AI’s testing capabilities and you have a marketing coach telling you which content strategy works and what specifically causes better performance.

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Houses for Sale in Miami Florida | Fort Lauderdale Miami Beach Homes

Houses for Sale Miami

Looking for a home in the Miami , Boca Raton or elsewhere in Florida? Perfect, because the houses for sale widget from Zillow below will lead you to a selection of nearly 1000 detached properties.  Whether to live in or invest in, houses in the Miami area are in high demand.

From Coral Gable, to West Miami up to Boca Raton to Miami Shores, you’ll discover a wealth of extremely beautiful Florida homes, the kind everyone dreams about. Prices range from $239,000 to $8 million or more. It’s not quite correct to say you can’t find a home comparable in quality to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix or Denver. Search hard with a good home search system, and you might find a gem.

Realtor.com has an incredible 7,000 homes for sale on its site, about a quarter of all property listings. Zillow has about 1000 detached home listings. Currently, the average home listing price is just over $400,000.




Typical beautiful House For Sale in Miami

Spectacular Waterfront home in beautiful Miami Beach

Real Estate Investment Opportunities

Are you looking at houses for sale as a rental income opportunity? The ROI is tremendous in a number of cities including Miami. You may want to look north to Canada as well. The Toronto real estate market and Vancouver real estate market are ripe with income potential. The condo market in Toronto, Vancouver and Mississauga is very promising.  Take a look at pre-construction condominiums too.

Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego California are excellent rental markets, however the cost of the property might make you think twice.  See this video from a real estate investment advisor on properties with a high return potential.

Of course real estate investment is always speculative so ensure you have a professional advisor to weigh in on your choice.  Don’t limit yourself to your own location.  Most often, the best returns are in another city or perhaps another country.

 




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Houses for Sale in Phoenix | Arizona Real Estate Glendale AZ

Houses for Sale in Phoenix

Need a little help searching for houses for sale in Phoenix AZ? A more thorough approach that uses the full power of the Internet to maximize visibility of homes to you is recommended.

Relying solely on a local Phoenix Realtor might be common, but putting all your eggs in one basket could mean you’re not finding the best houses for sale.

The reason for this is that a lot of homes aren’t listed on the MLS where Realtors draw almost all of their leads from. Some realtors have pocket listings which they want to sell themselves. Can’t blame them. The real estate business is a difficult, competitive industry.




There are at least 5,400 homes for sale in Phoenix listed on realtor.com alone and zillow has almost 7,000 homes listed. That’s a lot of houses for sale! The house you’re looking for may never be listed so you’ll want to be more proactive to get first dibs. 

House prices have not reached the pre-recession highs in 2007 and given the moderation trends occuring now, they may not reach them. You should have slightly better luck in 2018.




Do you need a lower auto insurance quote in Phoenix with better coverage?

You might see a better result overall if you follow my homes for sale search strategy. Whether you’re looking for a detached house, condo, townhouse, or rental property, a thorough plan for searching is a must.  Without it, you’re missing out on some of the best houses on the market or soon to be up for sale. There’s 3 sources of non mls listed homes in Phoenix — Craigslist, ForSaleByOwner, and Zillow. Check out the Zillow house listings below:




Student Housing | Florida Housing Market 2018 | Miami Real Estate ForecastHouses for Sale in Boston | Houses for Sale San Diego Ca | Houses for Sale San Francisco | Denver Houses for Sale | Homes for Sale in Phoenix | Find Detached Houses in New York | Find Detached Houses for Sale in Miami | Student Housing Vancouver | Real Estate Toronto | Real Estate Crash |  SuperBowl 2018 Predictions | Houses for Sale Los Angeles CountyHousing Forecast | Best Performing Real Estate InvestmentsStock Market Forecast

Houses for Sale in Denver CO | Colorado Homes Detached Listings

Denver Houses for Sale

The housing market cooled just slightly this summer of 2017 in Denver. The average price of a detached house is hovering around $500,000 according to Realtor.com. This is consistent with price trends of houses for sale across the US.

Housing markets in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco have seen the same moderation.  Detached houses are tough to find in Denver, with only 3300 homes listed on Realtor.com however DMAR reports 7300 active listings in August 2017 which is a slight rise over July. Sales fell by 6% so we know homeowners will be a little more eager to take lower offers.




Find houses for sale in Denver with Zillow.

 





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New Homes for Sale in Richmond Hill

New Home Developments in Richmond Hill ON

richmondhillAlmost quietly, Richmond Hill has grown to almost 200,000 residents which is Canada’s 26th largest city.

The astonishing speed of population growth is due to the fact it is covers a large area north of Toronto, and many Toronto area homeowners are selling and moving to Richmond Hill.

Looking for new homes in Aurora, Newmarket, Vaughan or Mississauga?

What gives Richmond Hill its special flavour is its proximity to Toronto to the south and the green belt to the north. With the spaces to grow act in full force, Richmond Hill is poised to keep its distinctive lifestyle advantage. Being so close to Toronto is a boon to businesses and career minded people.




Richmond Hill is about as far as most Toronto businesses will go to find service and product providers. The exodus of Toronto businesses to the 905 area code, and a wealth of educated workers of many nationalities has made Richmond Hill a strong economic force.

It only makes sense that where such excellent economic and lifestyle advantages exist, that demand for new homes in Richmond Hill would be strong. Richmond Hill’s population has a varied ethnic makeup comprised of 33% asian, 33% east indian, and 46% caucasian. New buyers of monster homes in the city have inspired some exciting new designs which you can see below in the Richmond Hill new homes gallery.




There are numerous small new home developments, custom builds taking place in Richmond Hill on an ongoing basis. One of the bigger developments you should be aware of his Richmond Green located at Bayview Avenue and Bloomington Rd.  A number of builders have announced new home developments here including Mattamy Homes and Regal Crest who have built new luxury homes in Vaughan.

Surrounded by beautiful parks, landscapes and trails, Bayview Gates is situated in a peaceful environment. The community offers the best of both the serenity of the countryside and luxuries of city. — from Regal Crest Homes.

Monster Homes in Richmond Hill

Here’s just a small sample of some of the newer mega-homes that have been built in Richmond Hill of late. Many are adorned with soaring high pitch roofs, stone facades and of course huge interor square footage.

richmondhill1 richmondhill2 richmondhill3 richmondhill4

Acorn Homes is about to launch phase 2 of Oak Knoll near Yonge St and Bloomington Rd. Phase 1 saw the construction of a large number of luxury homes.

Current MLS Resales Statistics in Richmond Hill

Resale property transactions were evenly spread throughout Richmond Hill’s 18 MLS districts. The northern area of the city is where you’ll find new multi-million dollar mansions and custom builds.

richmondhillsmlsressales2nd2016

 

Bayview Gates at Richmond Hill

Regal Crest Homes is announcing homes ready for occupancy in October 2016 in a new community call Bayview Gates at Richmond Hill.




Check out the floorplans.

regalcrestbayview

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