New York Real Estate Market Forecast ⌂ Forecast 2018 Queens Bronx Manhattan Long Island Brooklyn

New York Real Estate Predictions 2018

There’s no shortage of doom and gloom talk about a US housing crash that would take NYC down with it. In fact the recent reports of high foreclosure rates in Queens, Bronx and Staten Island are a little alarming.

The 3rd quarter market performance was less than stellar, the worst in many years.

Yet the Trump tax bill may just rectify the foreclosure carnage even as it slowed sales and lowered property prices as investors and buyers waited it out. The wait might be over now.

Overall home prices rose above $1,000,000 and condo prices fell 11% to an average of $2,689,147. It’s the high end properties that got hit hardest. At the lower end, NYC has a full blown housing shortage.

With income averaging about $60,000 per year in New York City, it’s difficult for many to buy homes averaging $680,000.  It’s estimated that to buy a home in NYC, you need an income of $100,000. New York State’s economy was a sluggish underperformer in 2016, however in the last 12 months NYC has gained 68,000 jobs. In November alone, NY State grew 26,000 new jobs.




The US economy persistently grows and improves despite the terrible debt and trade deficits left by the Obama administration. The Trump Administration new Tax bill are being viewed as positive and have quietened talks of housing market and stock market crashes.

Bar any issues with trade relations, and President Trump’s recent visit to China is a good start, all should go nicely with the US housing scene and help New York recover further. It could be said that NY’s inability to create new housing has made it too expensive to live their. That scares away business and makes buyers suspicious of a NY housing crash.

This chart below from the Case Shiller Home price index shows NYC’s real estate is stable and optimistic.




NYSAR New York Real Estate Update December

Here’s the latest New York housing stats published by NYSAR, shows the typical US housing data, that supply of affordable homes has dropped 1%, sales are down 2.5%, and average prices are up 7% from last year.
 Screen Capture courtesy of NYSAR

You could say that just like the San Francisco market and  Los Angeles market, and all major city markets acorss North America, the New York housing market is under pressure.  The NYC forecast is for more of the same, but at least, the market here isn’t like it is in Seattle, the Bay Area, or Los Angeles county.

It’s pretty far fetched that New York’s real estate performance could deviate too much from the US national forecast. A crash isn’t favored by the stats.

Is 2018 the right year to invest in rental income property?  Contrast the stock market to investing in real estate.


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Some Experts are Talkin’ Crash while Others Aren’t

There are enough media and realty pundits talking about a real estate market crash in New York soon. CNBC called from one back in the spring, but it’s not happening. Prices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, have kept rising slowly.

A Tale of Two Markets?

It’s softening in the high end luxury sector where DOM is lengthening and prices have dropped almost 1% during 2016 according to one report. But demand at the lower end has stayed strong.




New York State Realtor Association is Optimistic

lawrenceyunNYSAR reiterated NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s keynote speech at the 2016 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in Orlando, Florida. Yun explained that younger buyers are likely to drive growth in residential markets in the years ahead as the economy stays on a positive track and interest rates stay relatively low.

Here’s the 3rd quarter market report from NYSAR. New listings are down from the previous quarter, avg/med prices are up and number of months supply has dropped 29%.



Here’s an exerpt from NYSAR’s latest new report:

“Looking ahead, the modest closed sales increases in September and the third quarter may signal that the continued decline in available homes is starting to impede closed sales growth,” MacKenzie said, noting the 20.7 % decline in homes on the market at the end of the third quarter compared to the same period in 2015. “Buyers, who are trying to take advantage of otherwise favorable market conditions, are finding fewer choices available to them causing them to delay the purchase of their next home.”

The year-to-date (Jan. 1 – Sept. 30) sales total of 95,453 was 11% above the same period last year. There were 38,629 closed sales in the 2016 third quarter, up 2.8% from the 2016 third quarter total of 37,575. September 2016 closed sales increased 2.1%compared to a year ago to reach 11,780.

newyork-housingstats-3rdquarter2016

 

The New York Building Congress Forecast 2017 to 2018

Calls for $127.5 Billion in Total Spending Through 2018. 2016 was a record year for housing sales and jumped past the $40 billion mark for the first time. NYBC also forecasts a total of 147,100 jobs in NY’s 5 boroughs in 2016, an increase of 8,900 jobs from 2015 but will fall a few percent to 142,600 jobs in 2017 and 138,100 in 2018.

These screen caps are from HUD’s Comprehensive Housing Market Analytis of New York City, NY. New York’s economy was rolling along nicely.

newyork-employment2015 newyork-payroll-growth2014-2015

Is that forecasted softening in employment enough to cause a crash?

The Building Congress’s outlook for new home construction is 27,000 new units and $13.1 billion of residential spending in 2017, and 25,000 units and $12.7 billion in spending in 2018. That’s down significantly from the 36,000 units built in 2015. With nowhere to live we can expect residents new and old to bid on resale stock and that should keep home prices level.

Donald Trump did make an election promise to cut government spending and tax the wealthy and that could make an impact, yet it appears private demand is what is driving the economy right now.



Removal of the Dodd Frank noose and easing of mortgage lending should create more demand for homes in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, SeattleHouston, SF Bay Area, Miami, and well, every US city. If land development regulations are eased, it will allow for more home construction and help to ease the auctions atmosphere that has rocketed them upward.

It’s a health forecast with strong demand, stable mortgage rates, looser rules on financing, and a government bent on creating jobs in 2018 to 2020. Full speed ahead.




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Housing Bubble 2018 – Will the Housing Market Crash in 2018?

Housing Bubble 2018? Will the Real Estate Market Crash This Year?

Home buyers, mortgage holders, and investors are asking more lately, “Will the housing market crash in 2018/2019?”  The US Housing Market is strong, so if this is a housing bubble, it’s a big one.

Remember the worst financial mismanagement and calamity of our era?  Subprime mortgages. 7.8 million foreclosures occurred during the 2008 housing crash and the country sunk into a severe recession.

Are we in a residential housing bubble?  While the Trump administration has brought unprecedented growth in the US job market, a preoccupation with ideological issues such as immigration and nuclear war along with cancelled trade deals point to a recession.

Take another look at the US housing market factors and fundamentals.

With job and wage growth now rising, the situation might be more one of inflation, rising interest rates, and strong housing starts. That suggests a recesson won’t be for a few years. If the jobs and industry repatriation continues, then growth could continue for many years. Industry can’t be repatriated to the US in a short time. It took China decades to gain its monopoly on manufacturing.

What is a ‘Housing Bubble’

According to investopia, A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. Housing bubbles grow with an increase in housing demand, pressured by limited supply. Then speculators enter the market to capitalize on capital gains and rental income property opportunities.

Supposedly, lessons were learned with controls on lending practices. Yet, could housing plunge for different reasons this time? Is a bubble a certain sign of a housing market crash? Experts think so.

12 Reasons for a Housing Crash

  1. excessively high home prices from a price bubble
  2. sudden underwater mortgages
  3. rising interest mortgage rates
  4. slowing economy and sudden rises in unemployment
  5. wage growth not keeping up with home prices
  6. geo-political shifts
  7. trade deals
  8. a stock market bubble and volatility
  9. level of consumer debt
  10. cost of living rises
  11. risky low rate mortgages for new home buyers
  12. high oil and energy prices




Homeowners are wise to be wary. The last crash cost many their homes and savings. Billions wiped out. There were plenty of expert predictions about a crash in 2016 and 2017, but that didn’t happen. That’s because the US  economy is too strong and frankly, it doesn’t look to be letting up for many years.

Money manager James Stack, 66, ($1.3 billion fund) predicted the last housing crash in 2005, just before prices peaked says his “Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer” of homebuilder and mortgage company stocks is warning of another crash.

Stack’s emphasis on financial companies is interesting. He must feel that it’s this over-leveraged group, the ones we forgot about, that could be the weak link. If the Fed goes crazy with rises, it makes sense that homeowners would begin defaulting on their mortgages leading to finance company failures again.

The recent tax changes are powering up the economy fast but they’re cooling demand which could keep it from peaking further. But prices have raged forming one half of the bubble.




If we avoid a national housing crash, could individual markets in New York, Boston, San Francisco, San DiegoLos Angeles, Seattle, Miami or Houston crash?

Should you sell your house in 2018? or should you buy a house in 2018?

The problem comes when the bubble bursts and losses of 30%, 40% or more pile up quickly. Investors tell themselves they’ll be smart enough to get out in time, but that’s not true.” from a post on Bubble Dynamics by Jim Rickards.

With all the political strife in the US, there’s those who might think a housing market collapse is inevitable and could launch a stock market crash.  Maybe a few will take pleasure from it. Wars, government incompetence, political interference, weak banking system, and a weakening economy brought everything down in 2008.

price crash



Some experts warn the conditions also exist for a crash in 2018/2019. Is this just anti-Trump lobby fear mongering or is there a factual basis for a housing crash?  They point to heated up markets like Washington DC, Dallas, New York, Seattle and Denver and talk about bubbles.

They point to Presidential impeachment, trashed trade deals, global economic slides, and high consumer debt as sure signs the housing market bubble will burst.




But hold on, the stock markets are still strong with plenty of demand for housing. Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver, New York, and Boston are still showing strength during traditional weak seasons.

So is there really a US housing bubble and a tumble as early as 2018? Or will the year of the natural disaster be followed by a unusual good year for housing?

International economies play a big role now so perhaps domestic issues might not be enough to set off a housing landslide. But let’s take a closer look at all the fundamentals below.



The Last Housing Crash

Can history be a reliable guide to the 2018 to 2020 period? Looking back at the last housing crash 10 years ago, experts blamed it on everything from easy low mortgage rates to greed, house fippers, unregulated banks and lenders, mortgage underwriters and sub prime loans.

And when mortgage holders believe they will owe endlessly on a worthless high priced property, they’ll begin defaulting on their mortgages. If mortgage rates jump and they aren’t locked in at a low rate, that’s a factor.

If trade wars do begin, it could kill jobs, wage levels, and investment, resulting in a slide. The economy is the number one factor. And if foreign buyers want to sell because of currency worries, prices would fall.

It’s these worries that keep property investors up at night and a lot of people from buying.



Boston, Seattle, Denver, Atlanta, Portland, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York are cited as having the most likely conditions for a housing crash.

Those housing experts point to a number of things that exist now and could transpire in 2018 or 2019. So if the housing market was to burst, would that affect how much you should pay for a house?  If you’re a seller, should you sell your house now?

If you’d like to put up your house for sale as the market is peaking, you might want to read these homeselling tips.

The US Economic Bubble

The US housing market has ridden the longest economic rally in US history. Is this an economic bubble too?

There is an economic bubble. We’re in it. It’s a period of intense optimism with lots of disposable income to throw at home purchases. And places like California is where the tech industry has done so well, bidding has been most intense. Yet, it’s not completely out of control (although anyone in the Bay Area would argue) as the points below suggest.

Zillow Survey on US RecessionGraphic courtesy of Zillow.com

 

What happens if China calls in that debt? Interest rates would rise, layoffs would grow, mortgages would begin to default, and prices would plummet faster than they went up.





Lowest Mortgage Rates
Lowest Mortgage Rates USA

 

 

Is there Excessive Risk Taking in the Housing and Investment Market?

Experts say excessive risk isn’t present in the markets. They suggest few are overleveraged, financially stressed, and not threatened by increased interest rates.

Is Demand for Housing in the US exhausted?

It appears demand for housing is still strong and considerable building is taking place. However not enough housing is being built to satisfy current demand.



Is Debt a Problem?

US credit card debt is the highest in history and the US national debt is $20 Trillion. The US annual trade deficit is also in the trillions. The average US home buyers puts 5% down on a home whereas in the past it was 20%. There’s not a lot of new mortgage debt:

In 2016, new first lien mortgages topped $2 trillion for the first time since the end of the housing crisis, but mortgage originations were still 25 percent lower than their pre-recession average — from Magnify Money.

Average debt to income ratio is rising yet is way below what it was before the last housing bubble.

However, Equity is High

Homeownership is at its lowest level ever in the last 30 years. Most Americans make low wages and can’t afford to buy. And those who do own, have a lot of home equity.




Unofficial Conclusion: No Housing Bubble for the Foreseeable Future

It doesn’t look like the statistics support a housing bubble or a burst. The markets appear to be stable and those who are at risk of an economic downturn are renting and don’t hold mortgages.

We can say for sure that it is a good time for wealthy Americans and large multinational corporations. Record profits that they don’t appear to be willing to share with American workers. Without excessive demand from the working class, a housing bubble would have to happen from investors taking flight.

Perhaps the best way to prevent a housing bubble from happening and an economic catastrophy is to not allow half of Americans to participate in the housing markets. This is why the property rental market is piping hot.  There may not be an end to demand for rentals.

Have a good look at the student housing investment opportunities. It seems students are starved for accommodation and new REITs are serving the market.



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Houses for Sale in New York | Detached Homes in New York State Queens Brooklyn

Houses for Sale in New York

You’ll enjoy better results in finding a home in New York’s many burroughs online. Finding the best houses for sale in Staten Island, The Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn is difficult without an advanced search strategy and paying attention to trends in the New York Real Estate forecast.

NY Realtors like to keep their search within the MLS or from their own pocket listings. That can reduce your effectiveness and result in less home for your money or a weak investment.

If you’d like to get access to the best pocket home listings from NY Realtors, you’ll need to get in touch with some pros who know the neighborhoods in Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island for example.

There are nearly 18,000 homes for sale in New York listed on realtor.com alone. Incredibly, Zillow has 86,000 houses for sale listed. That’s a lot of houses for sale! By all means, check out Zillow’s listings below.




To get yourself positioned to learn of more NY houses for sale or other properties including land, townhouses, and condos, use my homes for sale search strategy. To find a bargain priced detached house, condo, townhouse, or rental property in New York City, a thorough plan for your home search is a must.  Without a good search process, you’re not going to find the investments or residential houses you’re hoping to live in.  With the number of listings available in NY growing, this is a good time to be searching.  Make sure you up on all the factors related to the current and forecasted prices of  houses for sale.




There are 3 sources of non mls listed homes in NYC — Craigslist, ForSaleByOwner, and Zillow. Check out Zillow’s huge online listing now.

 




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Houses for Sale – Find Homes for Sale in Your City

Houses for Sale – Your Ultimate Source for Finding Homes for Sale

If you’ve read the housing forecast report, you know the availability of homes for sale is squeezed. A lot of properties aren’t even listed which will make it significantly difficult for you to find the property you’re dreaming of.

Real estate investors know fast about great homes for sale that offer the best investment value and there’s several ways they get first dibs on properties for sale.




Realtor Pocket Listings is one way they get connected to exclusive, quality houses. This is where the Realtor works both sides of a transaction and they keep the home listing to themselves hoping to broker it to their own pool of buyers. This works well in a market like we have now where houses for sale are rare.

Realtors will keep these listings quiet, so you need to be in contact with as many Realtors as possible, such as one from each major brokerage. The bottom line in finding your dream home or good investment property and houses for sale in your city is with a well rounded home search strategy.




Houses for Sale on the MLS

Remember that you may not see the best houses for sale on the MLS. You need to expand your search online using a variety of housing sources. Some services also do complex predictive analytics where they monitor social activity and other sources to find homebuyers and sellers who are exhibiting pre-sale behavior. This can be very good.

Realtor.com, Zillow, Remax, Trulia, Redfin, Coldwell Banker, Century 21, Sothebys, and Craigslist might be the way to go, to find houses for sale, but you’re kind of getting the leftovers. It’s like searching for a job using the classifieds. These are the awful jobs companies can’t fill so they advertise and go through the painful process of employee selection. That’s a grind.




Finding the Best Houses for Sale

With real estate, you’re looking for the best properties, the good stuff, that no one knows about. It’s better to find the best rather than toiling with a Realtor sorting through a limited supply. However, it’s wise to use a Realtor as part of your quest to find the best homes, houses, condos, townhouses, apartments or income investment properties from Los Angeles to San Diego to Florida. Use the Zillow Home Search Tool to get started!

Investors, while you’re at it, get educated about the national housing forecast, and find housing markets where there is a good upside potential for ROI. Don’t stick to your local market just because you live there. There’s more potential in the best cities.




Our quest in this page is detached houses for sale in your city. Let’s get started!

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Coffee Shops

Find a Coffee Shop Near You

Below you’ll find a large interactive map of coffee shops in your location. Whether you’re in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Toronto, Seattle, Sacramento, Orange County, San Jose, Las Vegas, New York, Boston or Miami, no worries.

Cool Social Coffee Shop in Los Angeles – courtesy of LA Confidential Magazine




If the coffee shop for you isn’t there, they don’t want to be found! And while you might find Starbucks shops and McDonalds Cafes galore in most cities intown or on the road, the most popular and prevalent, you should check out other shops and bistros for a special organic or Costa Rica flavor.

Some independent coffee shops offer exceptional atmospheres, fun, relaxing and with views!  Find one below, local to your specific geolocation.




Where are the most popular coffee drinks?

  • Americano. A shot or two of espresso with a little added hot water.
  • Cappuccino. is an Espresso with some steamed milk topped with foam.
  • Café au Lait. Half coffee with half steamed milk.
  • Espresso. Brewed by forcing a small amount of nearly boiling water under pressure through finely ground coffee beans
  • Latte. Made with espresso and hot steamed milk, but milkier than a cappuccino.
  • Breve. American variation of a latte: using steamed half-and-half mixture of milk and cream instead of milk
  • Macchiato. Espresso macchiato, is an espresso coffee drink with a small amount of milk, usually foamed
  • Chai Latte. a flavoured tea beverage made by brewing black tea with a mixture of aromatic Indian spices and herbs

What is your Favorite Coffee Shop and Coffee Drink?

Global coffee drinkers consumer more than 2 billion cups of coffee per day, and the coffee industry employs 5 million Brazilians, and millions more workers in Costa Rica, Columbia, and Vietnam. Coffee sales represent about 80% of revenues for many restaurants worldwide. And let’s not forget how many workers it employs right here in the US from Los Angeles, to Miami to New York and Chicago. Literally millions of jobs depend on the sale of coffee.

Which coffee shops brands have the most locations?

  • McDonalds McCafe – 1300 locations
  • Costa Coffee – 1700 locations
  • Tim Hortons – 4300 locations
  • Dunkin Donuts – 10,000+ locations
  • Starbucks – 20,00+ locations

Coffee is big in America (Starbucks had an income of 4.2 Billion dollars last year) and it’s becoming big in China too. And that means thousands of coffee shops are springing up in countries that have normally not been big consumers of java.

America Divided on Which Coffee Shop Brands They Prefer

Coffee Brand Map courtesy of Maptitude.com




Most searches for a coffee shop near me are likely to involve a Starbucks downtown, on a highway, or near an airport. The map below plots them out in detail with driving directions, sometimes a picture, and a menu.  You may have to push the “+ button” until you drill down to specific areas where coffee shops near you will appear.

 

Find Coffee Shops Near Me

Find restaurants near me Los Angeles, restaurants near me in San Diego, and restaurants near me in Toronto. Enjoy dining out tonight with the food, drinks and atmosphere you’re hoping for. Enjoy your visit and make some beautiful memories.

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