Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2018

April 5, 2018.  The February TREB report isn’t hugely informative, however it does reiterate the downward housing market in Toronto.  The Toronto housing market shrank 39% in March 2018 compared to March of 2017.

Strangely, home prices rose 2.2% vs February, so are we seeing the beginning of the turnaround?  Hope isn’t enough in a repressive market.  Change is needed and it looks like the factors will align this summer.

Although news reports suggest the market is stabilizing, there doesn’t seem to be a bottom in sight yet for luxury homes. They took a precipitous fall this winter. Those who didn’t sell last spring and fall may have been feeling sick all winter long.

Time to Prepare to Sell Your Home or Condo?

The monthly stats below and trends seem to be predicting this may be the best time to sell your home. I’ve predicted a boom after the election, and if we improve our trade agreement with the US, GTA home prices and the Canadian dollar should jump.




Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices may plummet further in February and March only to begin a strong rise in April. Why? The election in 4 months and the NAFTA fears will have abated.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

Share the Toronto Real Estate Market forecast on FB or Linkedin.

Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Share this detailed monthly home prices report with your friends.



Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Houses for Sale in the Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moving to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.

 

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Toronto Housing Market Crash – 15 Reasons why the Toronto Real Estate Bubble is About to Burst?

Toronto Real Estate Market Crash Overdue in 2018/2019?

When we begin counting the many reasons why and when the Toronto real estate estate market might implode, we might agree it is a possibility now.  TREB’s market report next week will tell us if it’s already started.

Is the Big Toronto housing crash coming in 2018? Would it precede or follow a Toronto stock market crash? In this post we’re going to explore the crash factors, some of which are getting noisy. Check here if you’re looking for the latest US housing bubble report.

The Ontario government’s disturbing strategy now is now working within an economy on the downturn and a smaller tax base. Wynne is rightfully concerned about the TPP trade deal threat which holds little promise for Ontario manufacturing. With the US pulling auto manufacturing back into the US, our key industry is threatened.

Companies here are facing a rising loonie and looking longingly south at the low tax rates there. You can read the other reasons for a doom and gloom picture for the Toronto housing market below.

If there’s been a perfect time to sell your home, this is it.

And with US President Donald Trump’s 2018 state of the union speech, it looks like the US is on its way to its biggest economic growth in history. Without the full benefits of NAFTA, the Canadian economic outlook is troubled, especially if oil prices rise only moderately, putting the economy in no mans land.

And for Ontario, the picture is less positive:

  1. the TSX stock exchange is one of the worst performing in the world
  2. the NAFTA deal may be cancelled or manfacturing exports down
  3. the TPP deal would open up Ontario to cheap Asian competitors
  4. the price of oil is rising and raising Ontario’s costs of doing business
  5. real estate is very expensive
  6. rent to income ratios are extremely high in GTA
  7. interest rates are high
  8. consumer debt is maxed out
  9. the Ontario government is anti-business and anti-housing growth
  10. Ontario’s taxes can’t generate enough money for infrastructure improvements
  11. the CAD is rising and eroding Ontario’s competitive advantage
  12. Canada has been near last in direct foreign investment for many years
  13. US tax rates have plummeted giving companies reason to relocate there
  14. cash strapped, stressed out Millennials will finally give up on the dangerous gamble of buying a home for $600k+
  15. the Federal Government may raise the Capital gains tax
The Toronto Stock exchange one of the worst in the world, and is tumbling in 2018
Canadian beginning strong rise against falling US Dollar.

Are Canadians thinking crash?

From the Bank of Canada governor to expert authors, there’s a dull roar of people warning about a Toronto housing crash. Are they contibuting and pushing or is this just plain fact?

Now we’re into 2018, home sales are slow, sellers are definitely getting nervous, and younger buyers more frustrated. More worrisome is the recent troubles in the stock market, with the rising dollar and rising oil prices which just hit $66 per barrel.

The debate raged last year, but it looks like Douglas Porter (his most recent thoughts) might have it right for a 2018 forecast.

Here’s Douglas Porter again on Feb 1 saying there is no immediate danger:

 

The Americans too are worried about a housing bubble in 2018, yet their economy is on a definite upswing. The amount of money being repatriated into the US (Apple bringing in $450 billion) is incredible. All that investment money is coming back home to create jobs in the US. Of course there will be a spillover into Canada.

Huge personal debt and a vulnerable economy combined with Millennial desperation and huge immigration growth are fueling some sort of event.

Everyone’s wondering what will start the avalanche. The election of the PC party in June could create the euphoria and optimism that will inflate prices severely next summer.  There’s some risk in it, however the benefits will be tremendous for anyone in Ontario looking to buy their own home.

“This is either a pause in the bubble and inflation is going to resume into even more stratospheric levels, or this is the start of a hard landing,” said Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager at RichardsonGMP and author of “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash.”

Should you list and sell your house now? Will interest rates and inflation, and government policies lead to a catastrophic housing and economic collapse in Canada in 2018/2019? Could our prime minister mismanage the economy?

In the booming US, they’re asking similar questions about a housing market crash. That would make a Toronto market crash more plausible. Yet many see the market ready to boom. Very confusing, but let’s take a look at the Toronto market crash scenario first and see all the factors to consider before you buy or sell your home.



2018, 2019, 2002 or Beyond?

If it’s not a question of if the Toronto market crash might happen, then might a questio of when — 2018 or 2019? Or will the crash threat simply fade as demand for homes weakens? Lots of uncertainty and not much consensus.

There’s a list of the crash factors however if they line up in a certain squence, it might be enough to set the house of cards plummeting. Is the key crash factor financial, political, or would it be a sudden loss of consumer confidence in real estate and the Canadian economy?

Much of Canada’s prosperity comes via natural resources and trade with the US. Despite all the optimism, trade restrictions (Bombardier loss) by the US are no joke as are falling commodity prices. And if you were a bank, would you want to lend out billions to young first time home buyers in the face of an unstable government and economy?

I just read a story about a company that is ready to help buyers rent to buy so they don’t have to pay a downpayment in some cases. Is the same scenario we had in 2006 and 2007?




Provincial Governments and Drastic Actions

The Ontario Premier impulsively reacted with the foreign buyers tax which helped cool demand, but the crash may not be about the flame. It may be about the fundamentals of a Canadian economy which has the least direct foreign investment of any G20 country and a shaky trade deal with one country which seems to blocking imports of our wood and oil.

The Ontario, BC, and Canadian federal governments have been so negative, repressive, and unsupportive of the contribution of real estate to the economy, that those actions are the key to a disaster. Continued suppression of land development for housing is creating a true housing crisis.

1 million new immigrants are arriving in Canada by 2020, it’s sets the stage for desperate buying (the dreaded housing bubble) and bigger opportunities for rental property investors.

Some experts suggest a crash is impossible, while other expert predictions (from TD’s Bank President), support the theory that rising unemployment and rising mortgage rates would be needed to begin the landslide.

Canadians have one of highest per capita debt levels of any G7 nation. With the NAFTA deal in trouble, we could see those rise. So when someone asks “should I sell my house” in Toronto, the response depends on whether the government will change course and help in a massive housing development program.

crashahead
Image courtesy of look4itknysna.co.za





What Causes Housing Bubbles to Form and then Burst?

What causes a housing market bubble?  What factors could burst Toronto’s bubble and possibly send the economy into a skid? Most of those factors are listed below. The key is rocketing demand (like we saw in spring 2017) combined with intensive government meddling, during a time of economic prosperity.

The key may be market susceptibility, instability, caused by investor uncertainty. After a charged up price index, an event occurs that sends investors scurrying fast.  It could be foreign investors or Canadian investors. Only if the economy suddenly loses its strength and people find themselves without jobs will they default and abandon their underwater mortgages, as they did during the US economic recesssion. When bank governors begin to use vague, waffling language, it creates the kind of uncertainty investors dislike.

Bank governor Poloz said that interest rates could move “in either direction.” He emphasized that the Canadian economy was still highly susceptible to shocks, and a cooling housing market combined with debt worries are still worthy of concern – from the Fool.ca  

Should I sell my house in Toronto and should I buy a condo in the Toronto area?

Find out how the Toronto Real Estate market shaping up.   Check out more detailed market updates and forecasts for of MississaugaVaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, and Bradford.

Vancouver’s real estate market has shown volatility of late. It looked like the market was coming back but it has leveled off again.

The lack of rentals is the “biggest pain point for our city,” With 100,000 people moving to the Toronto area annually, the region needs about 30,000 rental units. Toronto has about 1,500 coming on stream” from Toronto Star report.

If you’re thinking of selling your home to get in on this Toronto market winfall, you need to find a real estate agent. The market might not burst until 2018, but it could heat up badly in April, May and June to begin the freefall.

richmondhill4

What exactly happens in a real estate market crash? Here’s one answer:

If a bubble were to burst, the real estate market would slow to a crawl. “You’d probably see very little transaction volume,” said University of British Columbia professor Thomas Davidoff. “People would be locked into their homes and their mortgages.”  




In a crash, you couldn’t sell your home since buyers would just wait forever for the market to hit bottom and fewer could get financing to buy it.

Lots of questions to ask such as “is this just a monster luxury home problem?” If the market plummets, what will it mean if I have an underwater mortgage and can’t renew at higher mortgage rates?  Are my relatives wise to buy right now? Will a crash have an effect on employment in the Toronto area? Consider this from a report on CBC:

1 in 10 wiped out by 20% correction — A badly managed downturn in real estate prices could wipe out the wealth of a large number of Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers. We need to recognize that young families are the most likely group to be plunged underwater by a nasty housing correction,” said CCPA economist David Macdonald.

Sound scary? Then let’s take a real, no holds barred look at the real estate market in Toronto and the factors that could create a crash because our assumptions might be false.

Did you know sharing is good for your social health?  Share this post on Facebook, Twitter, or Linkedin or via email. It’s good to share!!




This report from the CBC tells us a lot about the whole business of forecasting crashes (and that they haven’t happened)

Prices keep rising. Bearish predictions that Canada’s housing market is about to crash, and calls for the government to cool hot markets, have been around for at least that long.

In fact, prices have risen steadily since the recession of the early 1990s and even the dip during the financial crisis of 2009 was a mild one. “Da Bears may some day be right, especially on the hottest markets, but getting the timing down is half the challenge,” Porter said. A Goldilocks market is not too hot, not too cold. But Canada’s housing market is running both hot, cold and lukewarm all at the same time.  From http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bmo-porter-housing-crash-1.3493809

Nostradamus and the Pundits

Some experts are calling for a housing crash in 2017, based on overheated prices, yet they don’t discuss what might be done to alleviate the problem in the Toronto region. The key issue for the Toronto real estate market, (as it is in the US market) is a lack of housing supply but there are other factors outline below. A host of government leaders have sought to crush land development and have quietly gotten away with their policies. But now the spotlight is aimed directly on them.

Could Premier Kathleen Wynne arrange to cancel the Places to Grow legislation and open up new land to ease home prices? Isn’t that a more sensible thing to do rather than providing more incentives for first time buyers who  are up to their ears in consumer debt pondering a very high priced condo or house purchase? Is Kathleen Wynne is precipitating risk factor for a big housing crash in Toronto? Will interest rates rise so buyers would be less likely to bid on homes and condos?

Some would suggest that she and the Liberals are too ideologically driven to flex on that one. Yet Wynn’s approval rating is now below 20%. That is really low so easing up when the Federal government is crack down on mortgages doesn’t make a lot of sense. Her super low rating means Ontario doesn’t want her as Premier anymore and out of desperation facing years more in office, she could do something risky to seek approval. Wynne is a sell now factor.

More Foreign Investment Needed

The high demand for homes and property from foreign investors from China and the Middle East and the US, has been  a wonderful thing for Ontario and Canada. If not for real estate, the world has no interest in investing in Canada. Foreign investment is at its lowest level in 60 years which means no one is going to save us.

Federal Justice minister Bill Morneau recently announced measures to cool the Toronto market, however experts feel the Feds can’t do much, in fact the Feds have said that themselves.  They believe the provinces should be managing their own affairs. That brings it back to the Wynne government who has used risky, sudden measures. So when ministers start using words such as fragile, you’ve been given fair warning about a potential crash.

Justin Trudeau should be travelling and posing for cameras on the subject of why investing in Canada is wise. New free trade deals with ailing South American countries won’t work because we have nothing to export and they don’t buy our stuff. Without financing, the Ontario companies don’t stand a chance competing against well funded foreign firms. A low dollar and access to the US market is all we have.

If the 2018 Toronto Housing Market does Crash

If a housing crash is imminent, you’d be wise to unload your property now during the winter. Is 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth missing out on the greatest real estate cashout of all time? Up or down market, a wise person would answer the question of “Should I sell my home now” is in the affirmative.

Toronto Housing Market Crash Factors

What are the economic and real estate market factors that affect your selling decision?

  • strength of the US economy
  • GTA economy and employment starts to fall
  • Canadian consumer debt reaching lmits
  • NAFTA agreeement conflicts and refusals
  • US restrictions on imports from Mexico and China begin to topple their housing markets
  • immigration levels drop off
  • add on taxation by Ontario, city and Toronto governments
  • soaring home prices fall
  • moderate new home construction – abandoned security deposits
  • government meddling with property use
  • mortgage rates rising faster
  • number of millennials buying homes drops or house prices are out of reach
  • Wynn and Trudeau don’t have a handle on the economy
  • political pressure to keep home prices up to protect homeowner’s equity and credit situations

What the Heck Happened in Vancouver?

The booming Vancouver real Estate market plunged not long after the foreign buyers tax was implemented. That hurt speculators and Asian buyers who were finding a way to invest in Canada. It was good for BC renters, but not good for Vancouver. Foreign investors will have lost some trust in the BC government. These sorts of radical taxes and regulations don’t go over well with investors.

Unfortunately, the pain of high rents and no vacancies was too much for the Vancouverites to to bear and they pushed the tax through. The Asian money soon transfered to Los Angeles and Seattle where potential is so high.
Will the bubble burst in Toronto soon? A lot of buyers and sellers and mortgage lenders are struggling with that question.




Kathleen Wynn and John Tory aren’t talking about the crash possibility and the various mayors in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora Newmarket etc aren’t saying much either. They’re enjoying the tax haul, but they realize Canadian consumer debt is a huge matter. If mortgage rates and unemployment rise, we’ve got a crash type situation on our hands.

With high home prices come new home construction and if you’ve been to Aurora Newmarket, Bradford and King township lately you’ve seen the huge growth in new communities. But the demand far outstrips supply. The fact is Toronto is a hot market and prices aren’t slowing.

Is this the best year to buy rental income property?  Read these posts on best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Does the Past Tell Us Anything?

If the past does tell us anything, it tells us we’ll probably make the same mistakes again about forecasting crashes and bubble downturns.  If we look at Toronto home prices over the past 60 years, we’ll see that they’ve just kept rising. Even the great recession cause only a small blip and the US recession of 2007 didn’t even leave a dent. As long as there’s a lack of development land, the price will speed up like an angry commuter on Indy 400 (or 404 or 401) and inevitably crash.

finposthomestoronto2017

The last thing we’re left with in pondering the possibility of a Toronto housing crash in 2017 is what starts an avalanche?  Is a stock market crash in 2019 a possibility that will affect your decision to buy?

Here’s a few resources on the bubble issue:

Housing market has ‘low probability’ for collapse: RBC report

Why Every Investor Needs to Worry About Canada’s Housing Bubble

Hands off my housing bubble!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-canada-real-estate-1.3822489

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Federal Court Rules Against Toronto Real Estate Board – Toronto Mississauga York Region Durham Peel

Federal Courts Rule in Favour of Anti Trust Legislators

The Federal Court of Appeal has upheld an April, 2016 decision made by Canada’s Competition Tribunal. It has ordered the Toronto Real Estate Board to allow its members to share the sales histories of listed properties online.

This ruling relates as well to the incoming opportunities of Blockchain technology in real estate. What’s at stake is the all important client and property databases.

TREB has always contended that its first priority is to protect homebuyers data and privacy. It seems the courts didn’t buy that argument. This isn’t an isolated war in Canadian markets and courts. REBGV in Vancouver is fighting to hang onto its data too.

From the ruling: “The tribunal made no error in finding that TREB engaged in an anti-competitive practice and that this practice had and will likely continue to have the effect of preventing or lessening competition substantially in the (Greater Toronto Area).”





Whether this is good news or not so good news depends on who you are. It’s certainly good news for online real estate service businesses. They can improve their services with this open data source. TREB’s 45,000 realtor members may feel this is a threat to their own businesses who benefited from stifled competition.

It will create a further evolution in professional real estate sales. Agents and brokers will have to be smarter, more effective, and create a better presence online. The new market will move from Realtor intranets to the Internet and smartphones.

TREB is appealing the ruling and hoping to stay the order that allows immediate release of the home sales information. It’s a small win for some, but eyes are on the future, where more of the TREB data can be released and reported on.

Without accurate, up to date housing data, it is very difficult for service companies to do business in Toronto Real Estate. TREB has almost monopolistic power in an era that is demanding access to market data.




In a Toronto Star Report,  the governments’s commissioner of Competition, John Pecman says Friday’s ruling is an important win for competition and consumers.

It paves the way for much needed innovation in the real estate industry,” he said in a statement about the case has been going on for six years.” – from Torstar new report.

Realtors can now post home sales data on their websites for buyers and sellers to see.  The tribunal also said TREB must provide data such as sales figures, pending sales and broker commissions, which might be embarassing situation for some.



It’s All About the Housing Data

Although the argument seems to be about the release of the actual sales price history of homes, it may actually be more about control and the rest of the data in TREB’s gargantuan database.  Although TREB wants control of the data, which could mined for incredibly business value, it looks like they are losing the battle.

Perhaps TREB should go with the flow on this one and charge a fee for it? Even if the data is the property of TREB, the ruling shouldn’t prevent TREB from selling their data. If there are privacy issues regarding the data, then the Federal Government may be held liable for releasing it.  Homeowners themselves were likely lead to believe their property and personal information would be protected and private.

Sounds like a legal can of worms.

Some wonder if it’s a sad state of affairs if a Realtor’s only value proposition is as a gatekeeper to the data. That data has immense valuable to a lot of investors and home buyers. Previously, only Zillow had this type of housing sales data. The release of TREB mls data may be a nail in the coffin for Zillow.



It is likely new businesses and business models will evolve as a result of the ruling. Smaller businesses can jump on it right away to offer enhanced services online, but other large scale, Zillow, Zolo or Zoocasa enterprise level businesses will likely have to wait until the matter is fully settled in the Supreme court.

We’re in a data driven business world, and until now, the housing data was contained. Now with that dam bursting, it opens up many possibilities for entrepreneurial startups in the real estate sphere.

For real estate agents, the news is likely not a good one. Agents will now have to work much more effectively at building new real estate leads, holding onto old clients, and revamping the power of their own realtor brand image.

The release of this immense database will open up all sorts of entrepreneurial opportunities and range of services by real estate marketers of all types.  The Canadian markets are opening up open market models you see in the US.




Are you looking for the latest Toronto real estate market outlook, Mississauga real estate forecast, Vancouver real estate forecast, or the Calgary real estate predictions?  See also the Toronto condo market forecast and Vancouver condo market forecast.

 

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Apartment Rentals in Toronto ⌂ Toronto Rental Market Prices Rise Fast – Toronto Mississauga Brampton North York GTA

Toronto Apartment Rental Prices Haven’t Dropped

While housing prices rise and hopeful homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver complain about the housing crisis apartment rental prices in Toronto.

And then there are those who don’t have the strength to get up off their sidewalk grates and jump for joy about the latest government program announced. What really is ridiculous about this is that our government is squeezing housing supply raising housing and apartment rental prices and then dressing themselves up as some kind of superhero.

Federal Government’s view of Millennial homelessness? Comfortable and hydrated

Amost on cue, jumping on the housing crisis easy button is our Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. With tired, worn out solutions pulled from history books, Trudeau is planning to spend $40 billion over ten years. He made the announcement during a recent photo shoot for media.



The forecast is for higher rents, more homeless people, more social problems, and stressed low wage Canadians occupied more with staying alive than helping boost Canada’s GDP. And our growing numbers of foreign students will wondering whether Canada’s lack of student housing should make them choose the US instead.

According to Covenant House, “over the course of the year, the number of young people who spend some time homeless in Canada is as many as 40,000, and on any given night, there may be up to 7,000[1] homeless youth.”

Toronto Apartment and Condo Prices Rise

Prices for apartment rentals in Toronto are heading toward heights you’d normally associate with New York, Los Angeles or the Bay Area of California. Yet, they have much higher wages.  The CMHC’s report on rental properties shows a drop to a 1.1% vacancy rate, and it’s likely a good portion of those available units are high priced. The average rental price has risen to $1,296 per month, up 4.5 %.

“The Toronto rental market is out of control,,,And because of that, rents are shooting through the roof. You go to a showing in some parts of town, you’re going to have a lineup around the block,” said Geordie Dent, executive director of the Federation of Metro Tenants Associations  (from CBC news report).

According to TREB, the average rent for one-bedroom condominium apartments in the TREB market area was up by
11.2% to $1,976 in Q3 2017 over the same period last year. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 7.7% over the same period to $2,607. You can view TREB’s chart below.




As a CBC report suggests, the big issue of 2018, 2019, 2020 elections could be housing affordability, particularly rent prices.  The CBC coverage is very good actually and acknowledges the good and the bad, however not much is said about how we got in this hot water.

 

Please Share this Post about our housing crisis. It’s a serious matter.

 

A lot of voters rent. This isn’t something Prime Minister Trudeau has addressed seriously during his whirlwind, jet setting, global tours, but it’s an issue that will be waiting for him every day he arrives at his office until the election. The forecast is for a very tight election race because the only ones who might vote for Trudeau are the status quo crowd. It’ll be an interesting year coming up in Canadian politics.



Screen Capture courtesy of CBC

It’s housing, immigration, political pandering, and economic incompetence that will see Justin Trudeau leave office. Support for wages, housing and homelessness will not be coming rom foreign multinationals doing business here.

Seriously, Landlords are the Cause of Low Vacancy and Homelessness?

Incredibly, the CMHC is blaming rental increases on rogue, profiteering landlords. That seems to completely discount their brand new report of record low vacancies.  Does CMHC read its own PR??

Landlords are not government agencies the last time we asked, and they are allowed to make a profit like the Canadian banks, Ontario Hydro, etc.

According to a CBC report, Trudeau’s national housing program will focus on chronic homelessness. The government says they will manage this professionally and reduce the number of homeless by 50% within the next 10 years. Of course, half of them will be dead within 10 years, so in theory, Trudeau’s vision is sound. Mark 1 for the PM.

Tip of the Iceberg: What Might Really be Coming in the Next Ten Years





The new Federal housing program plans to spend $2.2-billion on homelessness but will delay that until the spring of 2019. That means 2 more freezing cold winters for the homeless.

To understand the issue better, let’s remember that we’re in boom times right now. If the economy falls back into recession, the number of homeless and poverty level people falling through the cracks will rise. Will billions of tax dollars earmarked be enough to deal with a recession?

What have the governments of Ontario and Canada been doing to the housing industry?  Strangling it. Only by freeing up developers and land, and creating big tax incentives will the problem be eased.

Canada’s New Housing Plan?

The new national housing plan announced by Trudeau has these objectives:

  • Building 100,000 new affordable housing units
  • Repairing 300,000 affordable housing units
  • Cutting chronic homelessness by 50 per cent
  • Protecting 385,000 households from losing an affordable home
  • Providing 300,000 households with financial assistance through the Canada Housing Benefit
  • Removing 530,000 households from housing need

The proposed housing would built over 10 years likely won’t accommodate the homeless now, let alone those who will be entering that world over the next decade.

Housing is just one aspect of a miserable problem brought on by Free Trade and globablism. Even when housed, millions of Canadians still need food, medical services, and jobs. As more Canadians plunge into minimum wages, pushed out of the workforce by retirement, foreign competitiveness, factory automation and artificial intelligence software, the picture is not so nice.



If the Liberal governments had focused on building new houses, condos and multi-tenant buildings, the pro-housing response wouldn’t have been needed. Now Trudeau’s going to plow $40 billion tax payers dollars into another band aid solution.

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

It’s another sad act from a government that thinks it’s still 1980. Every decade, including the era of his father, we’ve had the same “government administration and red tape” programs that create crises and then pretend to solve them with expensive government programs.

Having no government at all would be cheaper and more effective. Not that we’re ungrateful for marijuana legalization and methadone clinics.

If government was out of the way, the Toronto housing market would heal and thrive. So would the real estate markets in Vancouver and Calgary.

Check out TREB’s 3rd Quarter Rental market report.

TREB REntal Market Report 3rd Quarter 2017 TREB 3rd Quarter 2017 Rental market report courtesy of Trebhome.com




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Predictions of a Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver in 2018 Reports Forecasts Predictions Canadian Housing Market

Will 2018 Bring Another Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver?

Are the Vancouver real estate market or Toronto housing market going to crash , lift off, or coast in 2018/2019? Has all the negative press made you believe the end is near?

Bankers and politicians keep trash talkin the housing markets. However, as you’ll read here, there is more reason to believe in strong growth arising from a healthy economy, high immigration, demand from 25 to 33 year old Millennials, low mortgage rates, a growing housing crisis and more.

Demand is high, supply is being strangled.

Wynne, Trudeau, and the bankers feel pretty certain they can crush this market (okay, they’ve persisted but will the Canadian economy and stock markets crash in 2019?  But this beast isn’t going to die. It’s driven by dreams and expectations about how we’re supposed to live.




Here’s my outrageous forecast: The demand is so high, they will have to completely reverse course and begin supporting construction and development and enabling purchases. Otherwise, as the election nears, they’re gone.

They’ll look like hypocrites, but the public will forgive because housing is a bigger issue that’s causing serious social troubles. As investors focus on rental properties, such as apartments in Toronto, even rents will skyrocket in Toronto. Toronto property management firms are headed for their own boomtimes.



As spring approaches, we’re going to see intense price pressure driven by a lack of supply. Royal Lepage just released its market forecast survey and they’re predicting Toronto houses prices will rise 6.8%.  That aligns nicely with this whole notion of boom times ahead.

And it turns out, construction is already booming.  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that the pace of housing starts picked up in November nearing the highest levels since 2008. Given that we just went through a boom, that’s remarkable.  CMHC believes construction of multiple-unit projects in Toronto has been a driving force behind the trend.

Benjamin Tal is also suggesting a boom in Toronto and Vancouver and it would restart in 2018. You can read more below.  Should you buy now or in the spring?  Take a good look at the Toronto real estate forecast and the further reading below.

Breaking News: Trudeau to bring in one million new immigrants in next 3 years. Question: where will they live?

Despite government negativity, statistics, the underlying fundamentals of demand along with the ongoing strength of the economy are suggesting an improvement.  That means a prison riot might be coming soon. You’ll find a list of credible reasons why the Canadian housing markets might surge again below.




The experts have been forecasting a Toronto or Vancouver crash now for many years. Hasn’t happened, so perhaps we need to think for ourselves? The market continues with confidence and optimism overpowering persistent negativity the politicians keep pushing out.

How is the US housing market doing? Nervous but very good. Post hurricanes and fires and political upheaval, the markets in Miami, Boston, New York, Houston and Los Angeles are healthy. And 2018 stock market predictions are positive for several years.

Let’s take a look at the factors and the two opponents: our politicians vs strong growing economies. Only one will win.




Let the Housing Good Times Roll!

The IMF and OECD seem to agree, saying Canada’s economy is the best looking in the G20. The case for a Canadian housing boom has some wind in its sails. If political suppression of the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets were to end, the rest of Canada would awaken.

What we don’t know is whether the government will attack  the momentum or let it power the economy further. Currently they’re riding a wave of populism driven by angry renters in Vancouver and Toronto.

But what if that voice faded and the exact opposite public opinion appeared? Justin Trudeau’s popularity has dropped to 25%, Wynne’s pushing towards zero, and that means they may have to reverse course to stay in office. Don’t believe they would do it? Never say never.

Politicians Crushing the Housing Market

Currently however, Wynne, Trudeau and Horgan are holding their own private “let the good times roll” party. Their unwise meddling in the housing market is a threat to the Canadian, BC, and Ontario economies as explained below.

And it’s all for political points that may soon be worth nothing because when you cater to a small select crowd, eventually everyone else wants you out. In truth, only the prices of million dollar estates have dropped a little and the rest of Canada is hurting.

Demand for housing is relentless and Millennials don’t want their dreams dashed. The larger voice will be heard in 2018.




People want homes and these 3 politicans will be booted out of office because of it.  The only ones voting for them are those in Toronto and Vancouver cities. The rest of the country wants to see lower mortgage rates and an improved economy.

A good number of Canadians are weighed down by thoughts of the last recession rollercoaster and don’t really want to go back there. Business people and investors want growth. They’ve got a lot on the line.

And the politicians they’ve discouraged the builders now. So, although everything is in place for a continued housing boom in Canada, these politicians could push us into a mess.



“At this point we do not see any real relief. In fact, the opposite is the case,” writes Tal. “Without significant changes to land and rental policies alongside a dramatic change to housing preference among buyers, those centers will become even less affordable.” – Benjamin Tal in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

Key Factors Supporting a Housing Boom in Canada

  1. global economic winds are positive
  2. Trump will rekindle trade with Canada (he has to)
  3. oil prices rising a little
  4. wages will begin to rise
  5. too many millennials need to move out of the parent’s places
  6. bank of mom and dad has plenty of funds ready
  7. supply is low and builders and construction workers are waiting to build again
  8. the rest of Canada is tried of being kicked around
  9. Trudeau and Wynne severely disliked
  10. China is liberalizing trade and investment with the world
  11. Canada’s economy is going gangbusters (3.6% growth forecasts)
  12. lumber producers would rather sell their lumber here
  13. mortgage rates still low (and there’s no real reason to raise them)

Video: Greg Bonnell of BNN Explains How Housing Prices Can’t Go Down

Strong Economy Usually Means Boom Times

Benjamin Tal may have meant a price boom is imminent because of severe shortages in the Vancouver housing market and the Toronto housing market.  And if prices rise, we may see construction starts also slowly rise and a juiced up housing market would in turn lift the Canadian economy higher.

A synchronized global recovery and rising global trade volumes are backstopping the growth, along with the bottoming out of the oil shock in western Canada and soaring home prices in Toronto and Vancouver — from a report in the Toronto Star.

And prices of oil have climbed, meaning Calgary’s real estate market and those in Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina might return as well. Fears are that OPEC is solidifying and a war between the 2 biggest producers could erupt. That would bring an immediate boom to Calgary.

Screencapture courtesy of BNN

This is a screenshot below is of historic oil consumption from Doug Rowatt’s post on the greaterfool.ca. The price is forever upward.  Is the time time oil shoots toward $100 a barrel? Some are predicting it.

Forecasters like Oil: “Open interest in $100 call options for December 2018 has tripled in one week to exceed 30,000 lots, according to Reuters.   The $100 December 2018 options is the largest strike for all of 2018.” — from USA today report.

Condo starts have been strong and look to continue. The Toronto condo market and Vancouver condo market will be driven by property investors according to reports.

BNN’s Greg Bonnell Interviews Bryan Yu, Senior Economist at Central 1 Credit Union regarding Vancouver’s perpetual positive market in a past interview. What stands out about the conversation is that Yu says affordability won’t affect prices, and that only an external factor, such as a Chinese implosion would create a Vancouver slowdown. At this point, with Trump’s visit to China, that the Chinese are adapting to global business and are welcoming foreign investment. No reason for a China problem. Vancouver looks great.

What makes Toronto’s condos an attractive long-term bet is the city’s low vacancy rate, which has fueled bidding wars among renters and driven monthly condo rents to an average of $2,074 in the second quarter, up 7.2 per cent from $1,935 a year ago, according to market research firm Urbanation. — from a report by Bnn.ca.




Severe shortages are likely to drive home prices high. Most forecasts and expert predictions are for a flat market for 2018. Yet the economy is strong and looks to get stronger so a flat market is really about sales volume. Prices are so high no can afford to buy houses in Vancouver or Toronto and soon for condos.

It’s Still a Seller’s Market

It’s a seller’s market in 2017 and 2018, and with rent controls suppressing new construction, the pressure will build to create higher prices of resale homes and condos. As wild as Benjamin Tal’s prediction is, it jives with what’s going on in the economy.

Douglas Porter believes the market will heat up too, but his view is that it will end with a housing market crash.

If NAFTA talks go well, which they likely will, the North American and global economies will both grow. That doesn’t fit with some bankers and politicians wishful prognosis of stagnant or reduced prices in 2018/2019.

The latest numbers from Novembers mid month report by ZooCasa shows a surge of listings this month.  This rapid rise in listings in houses and townhouses tells us sellers might be too desperate, overestimating the effect of mortgage stress test changes, and clearly not of the view that the market will climb in spring.

In TREB’s monthly price charts, prices in the core districts of Toronto haven’t fallen. The demand for homes within commuting distance of jobs is high and buyers will likely pay any price. Home prices in the 905 area code have fallen (York Region, Mississauga), but perhaps that’s ready to heat up in 2018. There are still bidding wars and lots of over asking sales happening.

Let’s not forget that many renters and some homeowners will have to leave their current homes, and they will be exposed to a zero vacancy market you normally associate with New York City or San Francisco.



Does This Fall Season Foretell of 2018?

The fall season has been strong, and while the new mortgage rules will suppress demand for more expensive homes, and condos, those under $600,000 will be high demand. That will push prices up. So although some homeowners are pannicking and dumping their houses on the market, demand in 2018 will gobble them all up. Let’s not be distracted by the $3+ million dollar homes in Forest Hill and Mount Pleasant.

The Toronto condo market is sizzling hot and they’re running out of condos.

It’s a simple matter of supply versus demand in Toronto and Vancouver. The only solution is to end anti-development legislation. Vancouver and Toronto have been designated high growth super cities with large numbers of immigrants with visas and foreign students arriving every month. How can that be stopped now?




Government Manipulation Could Create an Economic Slide

If Trudeau and Wynne try to counter rising prices and demand for homes brought on by demographic and economic factors, via policy changes, it may create a bubble and then housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver, cascading right across the country.

In fact, it’s likely that they’ll both be run over be the economic train neither had any part in creating. For Trudeau, it is hypocritical to recruit a million new immigrants and then not help withh the housing crisis.  I think he’ll come around because of this. However, it still leaves the BC and Ontario premiers left blockading the housing highway.

For those who don’t want to live in these modern mega cities, there are other areas of Canada to live. The north is undeveloped, but as more babyboomers tire of the congestion of the city, they’ll be looking for homes, at least for 6 months of the year, in Canada. They may have to go north to find one, if anyone’s building up there.

And they won’t find much relief in Muskoka, Niagara Falls, Kelowna, or Victoria. Prices are up in most retirement cities and they’re rising in Costa Rica, Mexico, Florida and Arizona. Too many people bidding on too few properties. Simple math that seems to befuddle politicians.

Before buying a home or investing in rental income property, get some advice on maximizing your investment. The path you take might be surprising. Expand your search for homes for sale with an intelligent strategy that does more than calling a Realtor.




Before you sell, consider advanced selling tactics that can capture the full interest in your home. The demand for your home or condo is out there in the real marketplace. They just aren’t aware of your property. Marketing is worth many times what you pay for it. Consider the exposure of your property on Google, Google adwords, Facebook ads, in addition to your MLS listing. Don’t be timid. Power it up!

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Toronto Condo Market Report – Update and Forecast 2017 2018

Toronto Condo Market Forecast 2018

While the Toronto housing market in 2018  is overshadowed by severe house supply shortages and ultra-high prices the condo market in Toronto and Mississauga is an attractive alternative for young buyers.

Sales of condos particularly in the under $500k market are rising and prices have risen as well. The latest Toronto condo market sales report from TREB has ben released. While TREB doesn’t publish stats on the condo market specifically much anymore, you can see the averages for each district below.

Toronto Central, Milton, Oakville, and Peel region continue to enjoy strong market demand while other areas have seen a decline in price since last fall.

The new mortgage rules now enforced means many buyers will only qualify for a much lower mortgage.




You likely have your own opinions about government meddling in the markets, however such interference can be a housing crash factor in itself.

Should you invest in a new or resale Toronto condominium? The Canadian economic Forecast and Toronto economy in particular look very good. That means condos new and old will be in demand next spring from fully employed buyers who have had time to save the big downpayments and meet more stringent lending stress tests.

As mentioned in the Toronto housing report for October, prices for Toronto condos are up 24.5% in the city of Toronto year over year.  Some of this rise is due to the coming mortgage chages. If you need a monster mortgage, you need to get hopping and call a real estate agent.

The issue of whether to buy is one of affordability for Millennial-aged buyers and as many are saving, there will be plenty of demand next spring, putting upward pressure on prices.

Millennials Are Driving The Toronto Condo Market

They’ll need more creative mortgage financing and improved condo searches to find something they can afford. Although the mortgage changes in 2018 will put an extra burden on them, and force them to stay in the rental market, they will likely have more money in the spring to buy a condo.

There’s big investor demand for condos too. Student housing is in a severe crunch in Toronto and Vancouver. Investors are well aware of the rental potential of condos and many may be investing in the Vancouver condo market and here in Toronto because of so much rental demand.

If you can’t earn a profit on capital appreciation, you can still make it on rental income.




Toronto Rents Are About to Rise

A report from BNN shows how rental income properties, including condos in Toronto. See where the big rents are.

Why are Toronto Condos such a Draw?

Toronto Condos offer higher cap rates and a larger growing pool of potential renters and buyers. And at this point with severe shortages of detached houses and townhouses, buyers are buying condos. Barry Fenton, President & CEO of Lanterra Developments, a major condo developer suggested Toronto Condo prices could could have risen 40%. They have reached 20% over this time last year.  The detached housing shortage is still alive.

When foreign investors look to escape their own country’s currency nightmares and leverage our weak loonie, they like the Toronto market. Note: If you’re a foreign real estate investor, people often refer to Toronto as being the greater Toronto area encompassing Oakville, Mississauga, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Scarborough, East York, Pickering and even out to Oshawa. The Newmarket, Bradford, and Aurora regions are included in TREB’s housing sales reports.




Toronto Condo Prices 2017

TREB District Toronto Condo Prices March 2018 Toronto Condo Prices October 2017 Toronto Condo Prices Sept 2017 Toronto Condo Prices August 2017 Sept 2016 March 2012 Price Change over Last 17 months
City of Toronto $651,100 $555,004 $554,069 $550,299 $561,376 $361,800 13.78%
Toronto West $494,400 $446,794 $450,485 $434,218 $487,061 $286,366 1.48%
Toronto Central $656,000 $620,322 $615,654 $615,680 $682,427 $422,396 -4.03%
Toronto East $411,000 $407,775 $395,859 $403,028 $467,689 $237,909 -13.79%
Halton Region $465,300 $478,611 $519,348 $528,579 $485,128 $442,625 -4.26%
Burlington $520,300 $553,029 $514,755 $476,222 $497,800 $370,667 4.32%
Halton Hills $486,300 $516,450 $294,500 $446,971 $381,017 21.65%
Milton $432,000 $413,808 $418,219 $427,594 $406,300 5.95%
Oakville $442,100 $419,438 $606,131 $523,507 $513,682 $485,800 -16.19%
Peel Region $423,600 $389,587 $385,588 $395,188 $461,830 $433,780 -9.03%
Brampton $360,000 $354,618 $336,091 $350,401 $374,596 $351,500 -4.05%
Mississauga $435,000 $395,683 $393,441 $402,344 $485,240 $453,250 -11.55%
York Region $507,000 $495,973 $481,138 $500,456 $544,528 $537,903 -7.40%
Aurora $477,000 $608,750 $562,500 $685,874 $532,785 $525,000 -11.69%
Markham $509,000 $503,796 $486,369 $503,455 $554,643 $527,518 -8.97%
Newmarket $536,000 $416,260 $444,250 $400,340 $496,125 7.44%
Richmond Hill $475,400 $452,319 $446,505 $470,076 $542,470 $596,667 -14.11%
Vaughan $531,000 $532,144 $513,618 $521,400 $593,725 $554,211 -11.81%
Durham Region $407,800 $399,687 $365,297 $376,250 $317,855 $274,350 22.06%
Ajax $396,000 $337,317 $397,125 $379,431 $378,180 $281,688 4.50%
Oshawa $358,000 $302,333 $226,347 $315,075 $243,000 $210,667 32.12%
Pickering $501,000 $448,036 $384,300 $402,316 $396,301 $340,667 20.90%
Whitby $410,000 $448,036 $395,633 $457,143 $344,461 $294,350 15.99%

The Toronto Real Estate Board covers a huge area and below we’ll zero in on communities that may represent the best ones for you to research.

Barry Fenton, President & CEO at Lanterra Developments joins BNN to discuss the Toronto Condo market. He suggests the market is aggressively priced and complains a little about how competitive it is. He says prices will rise 40% but he has a few misgivings about the Toronto Condo market.




Big Demand for Condos as Entry Level Homes

Most home buyers in the Toronto area can only hope to own a condo. Homes are averaging over $1.5 million in some areas in the GTA. And condo developments are offering more for tenants. And perhaps the key feature of Toronto condos is their proximity to work, leisure, restaurants and shopping and freedom from the grinding commute that many Torontonians face each day. So there are good reasons to buy a condo in Toronto.

But the condo investment landscape has recently been darkened by Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne. Her government’s new foreign buyer tax might hit the condo market the hardest, but most credible experts expect demand to return. It’s a short term blip (and as of Dec 2017, the demand for condos did indeed return).

Oddly, the condo market in Toronto is much less volatile than the single housing and townhouse market in Toronto. Her foreign buyer tax and rental price controls look like they’ll miss the mark.

Lets’ take a look at the most recent Toronto condo market prices and then look onward to 2018, 2018, 2019 and 2020. This blurb from the latest TREB condo market report says it all about what’s happening right now in April of 2017:

 

What else is supporting condo sales is proximity to work. Commute times are awful, gas prices are very high, and young millennials are having trouble handling rent/mortgage/ and car payments. Something has to give, so workers are choosing to move into the city near their jobs.

Where are Toronto’s Best Investment Condos?

As the graphic above shows, the top location is Toronto Central (where home prices are highest too), Toronto West and Mississauga. The bulk of these listings are in huge mega-sized condo towers and there are more of them being built. Toronto Central is also close to the U of T, Ryerson, and other colleges where off campus housing is in hot demand. It’s the same situation for Vancouver condo rental and investors should take note.

Toronto’s C02 district is your million dollar listing area. With an average price of $1,050,000 these are your Toronto luxury condos. This area is located just north of Downtown/Bloor st, near the University of Toronto. This suggests that proximity to U of T and downtown offices may be the primer driver of Toronto condo prices and may drive sales of Toronto homes as well.

Screen cap courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board. See more at trebhome.com

How Much Have Prices Risen in the Last 5 Years?

Should I Buy a Condo in Toronto?

Should you buy a condo in Toronto, Mississauga, Scarborough, or Brampton?  Demand for condo purchases is rising, the Toronto economy is strong and positive, and rents are rising fast.  At some point, you have to jump in, or you’ll never build homeowner equity.

What to Consider Before you Buy a Condo

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New TREB Report Shows Foreign Buyers Have Minimal Effect on Toronto Housing Market

Foreign Buyers Not Driving Up Prices in Toronto

A new Toronto Real Estate Board investigation has concluded that foreign buyers play a minimal role in Toronto house prices and availability. 3 key findings counter the Wynne government’s insistence that Foreign buyers and house flippers are ruining the housing market.

The report may indicate how government officials haven’t been honest to the public about the cause of high home prices in Toronto — government tax greed and ideology of privilege.

April TREB market report: a growth of 33.6% in home listings in the TREB’s MLS® System in April 2017, at 21,630. Prices rose too.

Tired of Ontario Taxes? Investigate a Costa Rica retirement.

This new finding shows the Foreign Buyers Tax in Toronto (an old school knuckle dragging approach) was a knee jerk reaction by desperate politicians. The sad part is that it could cripple the development of new homes and condos in 2018 and 2019 which would have eased the housing crisis.




It remains to be seen how Toronto condominium developers will react to the Ontario government buyers tax. Currently, the Toronto condo market is alive and healthy. But the housing crisis is unfortunately a sad reality for many Ontarians.

What happened in April 2017?

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 31.7 per cent year-over-year in April 2017. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 24.5 per cent to $920,791. — from report from TREBhome.com




Homeowners are Finally Selling!

On a positive note, and further to the real point of the study, TREB reported that home sellers appear to be loosening their grip on their homes and are putting them up for sale. The long awaited “Great Home Release” is happening now this spring 2017 in a Toronto neighbourhood near you.  tTREB’s Jason Mercer added in the published statement that it will take a long time for the pent up demand to be fulfilled in the GTA area. from the new May report from TREB.

It was encouraging to see a very strong year-over-year increase in new listings. If new listings growth continues to outpace sales growth moving forward, we will start to see more balanced market conditions. It will likely take a number of months to unwind the substantial pent-up demand that has built over the past two years. Expect annual rates of price growth to remain well-above the rate of inflation as we move through the spring and summer months,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.




“TREB strongly believes that public policy decisions with regard to the housing market should be evidence-based and supported by empirical data.”

3 Key Findings that Debunk the Foreign Influence Myth

TREB’s Report summarized these 3 key findings, that debunk the Ontario government’s insistence that foreign buyers and quick investment flips are driving the Toronto housing crisis:

  1. The number of buyers with a mailing address outside of Canada is well-below 1%
  2. Between 2008 and April 2017, the average share of foreign buyers in the Golden Horseshoe area was 2.3%
  3. The majority of foreign buyers – 87% to 90%– purchased their home as a place to live, not as a tax evasion or speculative venture (homes that were bought/sold within a short period of time – within one year of the original transaction by domestic or foreign buyers accounted for a very small share — less than 5% in 2016 and 7% between January and April 2017) of total transactions).

With the above information in hand, what is your opinion of the Ontario government and Mayor John Tory’s stated preference for the Toronto Foreign Buyers Tax? What do you believe is the real purpose of the tax? Will the incoming Ontario government simply get rid of it?  Do you consider the Toronto land transfer tax a fair tax? Do you feel the government is creating the problem with one hand and justifying its role with the other?

Get the full view of the Toronto Real Estate market, along with the Newmarket housing report, and Mississauga housing market report and forecasts.

Should you sell your house fast or for a high price?  In the past 3 months Americans have been selling their home for an average $336,000 more than they paid for it. It’s one more reminder that real estate is where the real money is. And if you’ve been reading my posts, you’ll see that government red tape and land restriction is the real driver of high real estate prices. So if you’re renting, gaining no equity, while your life passes, and can’t come up with hundreds of thousands for a down payment, now you know why. It’s time to speak with your local government representatives about opening up land for development. The alternative is pay the future home prices which could rise another 30% in 2018 (depending on the economy and how well J Trudeau gets along with you know who).

Latest year over year Toronto region home prices (April 2016 to 2017):

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com




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Average Profit on Home Sale = $356,000

How Does Making 71% Profit on the Sale of Your Home Sound?

A new report from ATTOM Data Solutions shows that homeowners across the US are receiving a huge winfall from selling their homes in 2017. The City with the best ROI? It was San Francisco which returned a whopping 71% profit for home sellers, or an average of $356k.

The average profit across the country was an amazing 44%. And just this first quarter, sellers earned $44k more in ROI — the best performance in a very long time. The stats make it hard to argue that real estate investment is how you create wealth today. When you consider how long the housing market has been depressed, it might not be a surprise. But what could surprise you is that this housing market isn’t done yet.




The ATTOM Data Solutions report shows 20 of the top US cities for homeowner profit. It seems 2017 is the year of the seller and hundreds of thousands of people will be selling their house for a fortune and moving on with their lives. But where are they all headed if there are so few homes available? Chances are they will be relocating to southern or tropical destinations or at least to cheaper cities here in the US.

If you’re in the market for selling and looking for a destination, check out International Living — the source for Caribbean, Mexican, and Central American relocation. You’ll be joined by thousands of Toronto and Vancouver home sellers who will be cashing out in 2017.

The 1st quarter of 2017 is proving to be the most profitable time for price growth.  In the video below, an expert believes there will be no bubble or crash in the market. He believes the economic and demographic fundamentals support ongoing growth in housing.

The first quarter of 2017 was the most profitable time to be a home seller in nearly a decade, and yet homeowners are continuing to stay put in their homes longer before selling,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions.

 


Homeowners throughout the San Francisco Bay Silicon Valley were the biggest gainers. The phenomenal economy along with a shortage of developable land has created a market where the price could only go up and fast. And the fundamentals of even higher prices are still in play. Housing starts are not expected to ease the issue and there are no homes for sellers to move up to.

That reluctance or inability to sell and move on is one of the key factors in today’s overheated housing markets.

The report showed 13 of the top 20 markets were in California and Colorado. This might reflect trends in wealth and population if not economic growth.

Top 20 US Cities for Home Sales Profit
City Average Profit
20 Port St Lucie, FL $53,000
19 Austin Round Rock, TX $81,795
18 San Diego, CA $144,400
17 Riverside San Bernardino $90,000
16 Boston, CA $111,000
15 Oxnard Thousand Oaks, CA $166,000
14 Sacramento, CA $99,000
13 Fort Collins, CO $97,500
12 Greely, CO $85,050
11 Honolulu, HA $161,000
10 Salem, OR $70,800
9 Vallejo Fairfield, CA $115,000
8 Denver Aurora, CO $110,000
7 Los Angeles $187,000
6 Stockton Lodi, CA $101,000
5 Modesto, CA $875,000
4 Portland Vancouver, OR $110,800
3 Seattle, OR $139,300
2 San Francisco Oakland, CA $276,750
1 San Jose Sunnyvale, CA $356,000

How About Best Cities for Rental Income?

There are plenty of cities with potential in rental property investment income. Attom Data reported these US counties:

Counties with the highest annual gross rental yields were Clayton County, Georgia (Atlanta metro area) (23.7 %); Baltimore City, Maryland (23.6%); Macon County metro area (23.5%); Monroe County, Pennsylvania, (20.65); and Saginaw County, Michigan(18.8%).




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Up or Down. How Will the Foreign Buyers Tax Affect Toronto Condo Prices?

Toronto Condos – Still a Smart Investment?

Screen Cap Courtesy of Pier 27 Condominiums, Toronto

The Toronto Condo Market couldn’t be more difficult to comprehend right now after the Liberal’s pushed their unwise Foreign buyers tax and rent controls. With availability of condos squeezed, prices in Toronto rose to record levels. What will happen this year and 2018 in Toronto’s condo market?

Toronto Real Estate Boards latest facts:  Condo availability down 18.8% and condo prices were up 24.3% compared to last year.  Demand for condos is expected to stay strong or strengthen while sustained lower availability should keep prices strong 2017 through to 2020.





Questions: Which way will prices and condo supply go in Toronto? Will reduced condo construction offset any rent controls now in effect? Can investors and condo developers still make a good ROI despite the rogue foreign buyers tax? Will the Ontario’s measures push the province into recession? 3 housing experts weigh in with their views below.

Should I Sell my Condo Now?

Urbanation’s Shaun Hildebrand

Urbanation senior vice-president Shaun Hildebrand suggested that rent increases had leveled off recently due to a new supply of condos hitting the Toronto market. His beliefs correspond with many experts belief that a lack of supply is the problem and that new supply tames the price increases.

In the Urbanation post: “While the market remains undersupplied, the report says the 11,315 newly completed condos that reach closing in the past six months helped to alleviate recent pressure on rents.”




The new foreign buyer tax is expected to kill demand from foreign investors. Kathleen Wynne has characterized these foreign investors as speculators as “undesirable” parking their money. She didn’t comment on whether immigrant investors are coming here to launch their business to give their kids a great education. She failed to specify why foreign investors parking money here is wrong or illegal. And she provided absolutely no data regarding how much foreign investment actually takes place in the Toronto Housing Market.

A number of Realtors and experts say foreign investment is only a small portion of the Toronto housing market.

If that’s the case, Toronto condo prices similar to Toronto detached home prices will likely not fall much and will recover probably by late summer. Some say this will be a brief market letdown and if new condo projects dwindle in number, it will only drive up condo prices in 2018 and 2019.

As you can see in these stats from TREB below, condo prices in Markham, Vaughan, Toronto West, Richmond Hill and even the hot zone of Toronto central, are reachable for many buyers. Adding 20% should still make them affordable.

Emporis, a research firm that specializes in Condo development reporting says there are 154 condo projects currently in construction in Toronto with another whopping 364 planned and 382 unbuilt. Ontario’s depressing tax could put prevent many new projects from moving forward which will constrain development and lower condo availability. That will move Toronto condo prices higher in the long term, assuming Ontarios economy can continue improving.

Barry Fenton, CEO of Lanterra Developments

Lanterra Development is a major condo developer in Toronto forecasts that condo prices will rise another 40%. Here’s the video interview with Catherine Murray of BNN.

Brad Lamb of Brad J Lamb Realty

In an early interview with Brad Lamb, a well known Realtor specializing in downtown Toronto Condos, Lamb suggested the Foreign Buyers Tax could conceivably lead to recession in Toronto and across. Lamb was then quickly rebuffed by Doug Porter, Capital Markets Chief Economist of BMO Capital Markets.  Porter blurted, “And I have eaten, drank and slept the Canadian economy for more than 30 years,” which look a little like a smackdown of Lamb’s credibility and capacity to speak with authority on the matter of housing economics. However, Bank representives to tend to align with current government positions on these types of decisions so we have to question Porter’s credibility as well.




In that same BNN interview, David Madani, of Capital Economics said that Toronto new housing construction accounts for 1% of Canada’s GDP:  “Accordingly, a moderate slowdown in Toronto housing construction wouldn’t put the entire economy into recession… It would take a much broader negative shock to national housing investment and personal consumption to put the whole economy into recession.”

But as we know now, the US is beginning to apply border taxes and we have to wonder when Trump will tax Ontario’s lucrative auto industry. The 1% that foreign investment in real estate provides, suddenly looks large. Now that the tax has been announced, foreign investors and our own condo development companies won’t trust the government.

 

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