Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2018

April 5, 2018.  The February TREB report isn’t hugely informative, however it does reiterate the downward housing market in Toronto.  The Toronto housing market shrank 39% in March 2018 compared to March of 2017.

Strangely, home prices rose 2.2% vs February, so are we seeing the beginning of the turnaround?  Hope isn’t enough in a repressive market.  Change is needed and it looks like the factors will align this summer.

Although news reports suggest the market is stabilizing, there doesn’t seem to be a bottom in sight yet for luxury homes. They took a precipitous fall this winter. Those who didn’t sell last spring and fall may have been feeling sick all winter long.

Time to Prepare to Sell Your Home or Condo?

The monthly stats below and trends seem to be predicting this may be the best time to sell your home. I’ve predicted a boom after the election, and if we improve our trade agreement with the US, GTA home prices and the Canadian dollar should jump.




Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices may plummet further in February and March only to begin a strong rise in April. Why? The election in 4 months and the NAFTA fears will have abated.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

Share the Toronto Real Estate Market forecast on FB or Linkedin.

Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Share this detailed monthly home prices report with your friends.



Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Houses for Sale in the Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moving to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.

 

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Federal Court Rules Against Toronto Real Estate Board – Toronto Mississauga York Region Durham Peel

Federal Courts Rule in Favour of Anti Trust Legislators

The Federal Court of Appeal has upheld an April, 2016 decision made by Canada’s Competition Tribunal. It has ordered the Toronto Real Estate Board to allow its members to share the sales histories of listed properties online.

This ruling relates as well to the incoming opportunities of Blockchain technology in real estate. What’s at stake is the all important client and property databases.

TREB has always contended that its first priority is to protect homebuyers data and privacy. It seems the courts didn’t buy that argument. This isn’t an isolated war in Canadian markets and courts. REBGV in Vancouver is fighting to hang onto its data too.

From the ruling: “The tribunal made no error in finding that TREB engaged in an anti-competitive practice and that this practice had and will likely continue to have the effect of preventing or lessening competition substantially in the (Greater Toronto Area).”





Whether this is good news or not so good news depends on who you are. It’s certainly good news for online real estate service businesses. They can improve their services with this open data source. TREB’s 45,000 realtor members may feel this is a threat to their own businesses who benefited from stifled competition.

It will create a further evolution in professional real estate sales. Agents and brokers will have to be smarter, more effective, and create a better presence online. The new market will move from Realtor intranets to the Internet and smartphones.

TREB is appealing the ruling and hoping to stay the order that allows immediate release of the home sales information. It’s a small win for some, but eyes are on the future, where more of the TREB data can be released and reported on.

Without accurate, up to date housing data, it is very difficult for service companies to do business in Toronto Real Estate. TREB has almost monopolistic power in an era that is demanding access to market data.




In a Toronto Star Report,  the governments’s commissioner of Competition, John Pecman says Friday’s ruling is an important win for competition and consumers.

It paves the way for much needed innovation in the real estate industry,” he said in a statement about the case has been going on for six years.” – from Torstar new report.

Realtors can now post home sales data on their websites for buyers and sellers to see.  The tribunal also said TREB must provide data such as sales figures, pending sales and broker commissions, which might be embarassing situation for some.



It’s All About the Housing Data

Although the argument seems to be about the release of the actual sales price history of homes, it may actually be more about control and the rest of the data in TREB’s gargantuan database.  Although TREB wants control of the data, which could mined for incredibly business value, it looks like they are losing the battle.

Perhaps TREB should go with the flow on this one and charge a fee for it? Even if the data is the property of TREB, the ruling shouldn’t prevent TREB from selling their data. If there are privacy issues regarding the data, then the Federal Government may be held liable for releasing it.  Homeowners themselves were likely lead to believe their property and personal information would be protected and private.

Sounds like a legal can of worms.

Some wonder if it’s a sad state of affairs if a Realtor’s only value proposition is as a gatekeeper to the data. That data has immense valuable to a lot of investors and home buyers. Previously, only Zillow had this type of housing sales data. The release of TREB mls data may be a nail in the coffin for Zillow.



It is likely new businesses and business models will evolve as a result of the ruling. Smaller businesses can jump on it right away to offer enhanced services online, but other large scale, Zillow, Zolo or Zoocasa enterprise level businesses will likely have to wait until the matter is fully settled in the Supreme court.

We’re in a data driven business world, and until now, the housing data was contained. Now with that dam bursting, it opens up many possibilities for entrepreneurial startups in the real estate sphere.

For real estate agents, the news is likely not a good one. Agents will now have to work much more effectively at building new real estate leads, holding onto old clients, and revamping the power of their own realtor brand image.

The release of this immense database will open up all sorts of entrepreneurial opportunities and range of services by real estate marketers of all types.  The Canadian markets are opening up open market models you see in the US.




Are you looking for the latest Toronto real estate market outlook, Mississauga real estate forecast, Vancouver real estate forecast, or the Calgary real estate predictions?  See also the Toronto condo market forecast and Vancouver condo market forecast.

 

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Apartment Rentals in Toronto ⌂ Toronto Rental Market Prices Rise Fast – Toronto Mississauga Brampton North York GTA

Toronto Apartment Rental Prices Haven’t Dropped

While housing prices rise and hopeful homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver complain about the housing crisis apartment rental prices in Toronto.

And then there are those who don’t have the strength to get up off their sidewalk grates and jump for joy about the latest government program announced. What really is ridiculous about this is that our government is squeezing housing supply raising housing and apartment rental prices and then dressing themselves up as some kind of superhero.

Federal Government’s view of Millennial homelessness? Comfortable and hydrated

Amost on cue, jumping on the housing crisis easy button is our Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. With tired, worn out solutions pulled from history books, Trudeau is planning to spend $40 billion over ten years. He made the announcement during a recent photo shoot for media.



The forecast is for higher rents, more homeless people, more social problems, and stressed low wage Canadians occupied more with staying alive than helping boost Canada’s GDP. And our growing numbers of foreign students will wondering whether Canada’s lack of student housing should make them choose the US instead.

According to Covenant House, “over the course of the year, the number of young people who spend some time homeless in Canada is as many as 40,000, and on any given night, there may be up to 7,000[1] homeless youth.”

Toronto Apartment and Condo Prices Rise

Prices for apartment rentals in Toronto are heading toward heights you’d normally associate with New York, Los Angeles or the Bay Area of California. Yet, they have much higher wages.  The CMHC’s report on rental properties shows a drop to a 1.1% vacancy rate, and it’s likely a good portion of those available units are high priced. The average rental price has risen to $1,296 per month, up 4.5 %.

“The Toronto rental market is out of control,,,And because of that, rents are shooting through the roof. You go to a showing in some parts of town, you’re going to have a lineup around the block,” said Geordie Dent, executive director of the Federation of Metro Tenants Associations  (from CBC news report).

According to TREB, the average rent for one-bedroom condominium apartments in the TREB market area was up by
11.2% to $1,976 in Q3 2017 over the same period last year. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 7.7% over the same period to $2,607. You can view TREB’s chart below.




As a CBC report suggests, the big issue of 2018, 2019, 2020 elections could be housing affordability, particularly rent prices.  The CBC coverage is very good actually and acknowledges the good and the bad, however not much is said about how we got in this hot water.

 

Please Share this Post about our housing crisis. It’s a serious matter.

 

A lot of voters rent. This isn’t something Prime Minister Trudeau has addressed seriously during his whirlwind, jet setting, global tours, but it’s an issue that will be waiting for him every day he arrives at his office until the election. The forecast is for a very tight election race because the only ones who might vote for Trudeau are the status quo crowd. It’ll be an interesting year coming up in Canadian politics.



Screen Capture courtesy of CBC

It’s housing, immigration, political pandering, and economic incompetence that will see Justin Trudeau leave office. Support for wages, housing and homelessness will not be coming rom foreign multinationals doing business here.

Seriously, Landlords are the Cause of Low Vacancy and Homelessness?

Incredibly, the CMHC is blaming rental increases on rogue, profiteering landlords. That seems to completely discount their brand new report of record low vacancies.  Does CMHC read its own PR??

Landlords are not government agencies the last time we asked, and they are allowed to make a profit like the Canadian banks, Ontario Hydro, etc.

According to a CBC report, Trudeau’s national housing program will focus on chronic homelessness. The government says they will manage this professionally and reduce the number of homeless by 50% within the next 10 years. Of course, half of them will be dead within 10 years, so in theory, Trudeau’s vision is sound. Mark 1 for the PM.

Tip of the Iceberg: What Might Really be Coming in the Next Ten Years





The new Federal housing program plans to spend $2.2-billion on homelessness but will delay that until the spring of 2019. That means 2 more freezing cold winters for the homeless.

To understand the issue better, let’s remember that we’re in boom times right now. If the economy falls back into recession, the number of homeless and poverty level people falling through the cracks will rise. Will billions of tax dollars earmarked be enough to deal with a recession?

What have the governments of Ontario and Canada been doing to the housing industry?  Strangling it. Only by freeing up developers and land, and creating big tax incentives will the problem be eased.

Canada’s New Housing Plan?

The new national housing plan announced by Trudeau has these objectives:

  • Building 100,000 new affordable housing units
  • Repairing 300,000 affordable housing units
  • Cutting chronic homelessness by 50 per cent
  • Protecting 385,000 households from losing an affordable home
  • Providing 300,000 households with financial assistance through the Canada Housing Benefit
  • Removing 530,000 households from housing need

The proposed housing would built over 10 years likely won’t accommodate the homeless now, let alone those who will be entering that world over the next decade.

Housing is just one aspect of a miserable problem brought on by Free Trade and globablism. Even when housed, millions of Canadians still need food, medical services, and jobs. As more Canadians plunge into minimum wages, pushed out of the workforce by retirement, foreign competitiveness, factory automation and artificial intelligence software, the picture is not so nice.



If the Liberal governments had focused on building new houses, condos and multi-tenant buildings, the pro-housing response wouldn’t have been needed. Now Trudeau’s going to plow $40 billion tax payers dollars into another band aid solution.

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

It’s another sad act from a government that thinks it’s still 1980. Every decade, including the era of his father, we’ve had the same “government administration and red tape” programs that create crises and then pretend to solve them with expensive government programs.

Having no government at all would be cheaper and more effective. Not that we’re ungrateful for marijuana legalization and methadone clinics.

If government was out of the way, the Toronto housing market would heal and thrive. So would the real estate markets in Vancouver and Calgary.

Check out TREB’s 3rd Quarter Rental market report.

TREB REntal Market Report 3rd Quarter 2017 TREB 3rd Quarter 2017 Rental market report courtesy of Trebhome.com




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Predictions of a Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver in 2018 Reports Forecasts Predictions Canadian Housing Market

Will 2018 Bring Another Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver?

Are the Vancouver real estate market or Toronto housing market going to crash , lift off, or coast in 2018/2019? Has all the negative press made you believe the end is near?

Bankers and politicians keep trash talkin the housing markets. However, as you’ll read here, there is more reason to believe in strong growth arising from a healthy economy, high immigration, demand from 25 to 33 year old Millennials, low mortgage rates, a growing housing crisis and more.

Demand is high, supply is being strangled.

Wynne, Trudeau, and the bankers feel pretty certain they can crush this market (okay, they’ve persisted but will the Canadian economy and stock markets crash in 2019?  But this beast isn’t going to die. It’s driven by dreams and expectations about how we’re supposed to live.




Here’s my outrageous forecast: The demand is so high, they will have to completely reverse course and begin supporting construction and development and enabling purchases. Otherwise, as the election nears, they’re gone.

They’ll look like hypocrites, but the public will forgive because housing is a bigger issue that’s causing serious social troubles. As investors focus on rental properties, such as apartments in Toronto, even rents will skyrocket in Toronto. Toronto property management firms are headed for their own boomtimes.



As spring approaches, we’re going to see intense price pressure driven by a lack of supply. Royal Lepage just released its market forecast survey and they’re predicting Toronto houses prices will rise 6.8%.  That aligns nicely with this whole notion of boom times ahead.

And it turns out, construction is already booming.  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that the pace of housing starts picked up in November nearing the highest levels since 2008. Given that we just went through a boom, that’s remarkable.  CMHC believes construction of multiple-unit projects in Toronto has been a driving force behind the trend.

Benjamin Tal is also suggesting a boom in Toronto and Vancouver and it would restart in 2018. You can read more below.  Should you buy now or in the spring?  Take a good look at the Toronto real estate forecast and the further reading below.

Breaking News: Trudeau to bring in one million new immigrants in next 3 years. Question: where will they live?

Despite government negativity, statistics, the underlying fundamentals of demand along with the ongoing strength of the economy are suggesting an improvement.  That means a prison riot might be coming soon. You’ll find a list of credible reasons why the Canadian housing markets might surge again below.




The experts have been forecasting a Toronto or Vancouver crash now for many years. Hasn’t happened, so perhaps we need to think for ourselves? The market continues with confidence and optimism overpowering persistent negativity the politicians keep pushing out.

How is the US housing market doing? Nervous but very good. Post hurricanes and fires and political upheaval, the markets in Miami, Boston, New York, Houston and Los Angeles are healthy. And 2018 stock market predictions are positive for several years.

Let’s take a look at the factors and the two opponents: our politicians vs strong growing economies. Only one will win.




Let the Housing Good Times Roll!

The IMF and OECD seem to agree, saying Canada’s economy is the best looking in the G20. The case for a Canadian housing boom has some wind in its sails. If political suppression of the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets were to end, the rest of Canada would awaken.

What we don’t know is whether the government will attack  the momentum or let it power the economy further. Currently they’re riding a wave of populism driven by angry renters in Vancouver and Toronto.

But what if that voice faded and the exact opposite public opinion appeared? Justin Trudeau’s popularity has dropped to 25%, Wynne’s pushing towards zero, and that means they may have to reverse course to stay in office. Don’t believe they would do it? Never say never.

Politicians Crushing the Housing Market

Currently however, Wynne, Trudeau and Horgan are holding their own private “let the good times roll” party. Their unwise meddling in the housing market is a threat to the Canadian, BC, and Ontario economies as explained below.

And it’s all for political points that may soon be worth nothing because when you cater to a small select crowd, eventually everyone else wants you out. In truth, only the prices of million dollar estates have dropped a little and the rest of Canada is hurting.

Demand for housing is relentless and Millennials don’t want their dreams dashed. The larger voice will be heard in 2018.




People want homes and these 3 politicans will be booted out of office because of it.  The only ones voting for them are those in Toronto and Vancouver cities. The rest of the country wants to see lower mortgage rates and an improved economy.

A good number of Canadians are weighed down by thoughts of the last recession rollercoaster and don’t really want to go back there. Business people and investors want growth. They’ve got a lot on the line.

And the politicians they’ve discouraged the builders now. So, although everything is in place for a continued housing boom in Canada, these politicians could push us into a mess.



“At this point we do not see any real relief. In fact, the opposite is the case,” writes Tal. “Without significant changes to land and rental policies alongside a dramatic change to housing preference among buyers, those centers will become even less affordable.” – Benjamin Tal in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

Key Factors Supporting a Housing Boom in Canada

  1. global economic winds are positive
  2. Trump will rekindle trade with Canada (he has to)
  3. oil prices rising a little
  4. wages will begin to rise
  5. too many millennials need to move out of the parent’s places
  6. bank of mom and dad has plenty of funds ready
  7. supply is low and builders and construction workers are waiting to build again
  8. the rest of Canada is tried of being kicked around
  9. Trudeau and Wynne severely disliked
  10. China is liberalizing trade and investment with the world
  11. Canada’s economy is going gangbusters (3.6% growth forecasts)
  12. lumber producers would rather sell their lumber here
  13. mortgage rates still low (and there’s no real reason to raise them)

Video: Greg Bonnell of BNN Explains How Housing Prices Can’t Go Down

Strong Economy Usually Means Boom Times

Benjamin Tal may have meant a price boom is imminent because of severe shortages in the Vancouver housing market and the Toronto housing market.  And if prices rise, we may see construction starts also slowly rise and a juiced up housing market would in turn lift the Canadian economy higher.

A synchronized global recovery and rising global trade volumes are backstopping the growth, along with the bottoming out of the oil shock in western Canada and soaring home prices in Toronto and Vancouver — from a report in the Toronto Star.

And prices of oil have climbed, meaning Calgary’s real estate market and those in Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina might return as well. Fears are that OPEC is solidifying and a war between the 2 biggest producers could erupt. That would bring an immediate boom to Calgary.

Screencapture courtesy of BNN

This is a screenshot below is of historic oil consumption from Doug Rowatt’s post on the greaterfool.ca. The price is forever upward.  Is the time time oil shoots toward $100 a barrel? Some are predicting it.

Forecasters like Oil: “Open interest in $100 call options for December 2018 has tripled in one week to exceed 30,000 lots, according to Reuters.   The $100 December 2018 options is the largest strike for all of 2018.” — from USA today report.

Condo starts have been strong and look to continue. The Toronto condo market and Vancouver condo market will be driven by property investors according to reports.

BNN’s Greg Bonnell Interviews Bryan Yu, Senior Economist at Central 1 Credit Union regarding Vancouver’s perpetual positive market in a past interview. What stands out about the conversation is that Yu says affordability won’t affect prices, and that only an external factor, such as a Chinese implosion would create a Vancouver slowdown. At this point, with Trump’s visit to China, that the Chinese are adapting to global business and are welcoming foreign investment. No reason for a China problem. Vancouver looks great.

What makes Toronto’s condos an attractive long-term bet is the city’s low vacancy rate, which has fueled bidding wars among renters and driven monthly condo rents to an average of $2,074 in the second quarter, up 7.2 per cent from $1,935 a year ago, according to market research firm Urbanation. — from a report by Bnn.ca.




Severe shortages are likely to drive home prices high. Most forecasts and expert predictions are for a flat market for 2018. Yet the economy is strong and looks to get stronger so a flat market is really about sales volume. Prices are so high no can afford to buy houses in Vancouver or Toronto and soon for condos.

It’s Still a Seller’s Market

It’s a seller’s market in 2017 and 2018, and with rent controls suppressing new construction, the pressure will build to create higher prices of resale homes and condos. As wild as Benjamin Tal’s prediction is, it jives with what’s going on in the economy.

Douglas Porter believes the market will heat up too, but his view is that it will end with a housing market crash.

If NAFTA talks go well, which they likely will, the North American and global economies will both grow. That doesn’t fit with some bankers and politicians wishful prognosis of stagnant or reduced prices in 2018/2019.

The latest numbers from Novembers mid month report by ZooCasa shows a surge of listings this month.  This rapid rise in listings in houses and townhouses tells us sellers might be too desperate, overestimating the effect of mortgage stress test changes, and clearly not of the view that the market will climb in spring.

In TREB’s monthly price charts, prices in the core districts of Toronto haven’t fallen. The demand for homes within commuting distance of jobs is high and buyers will likely pay any price. Home prices in the 905 area code have fallen (York Region, Mississauga), but perhaps that’s ready to heat up in 2018. There are still bidding wars and lots of over asking sales happening.

Let’s not forget that many renters and some homeowners will have to leave their current homes, and they will be exposed to a zero vacancy market you normally associate with New York City or San Francisco.



Does This Fall Season Foretell of 2018?

The fall season has been strong, and while the new mortgage rules will suppress demand for more expensive homes, and condos, those under $600,000 will be high demand. That will push prices up. So although some homeowners are pannicking and dumping their houses on the market, demand in 2018 will gobble them all up. Let’s not be distracted by the $3+ million dollar homes in Forest Hill and Mount Pleasant.

The Toronto condo market is sizzling hot and they’re running out of condos.

It’s a simple matter of supply versus demand in Toronto and Vancouver. The only solution is to end anti-development legislation. Vancouver and Toronto have been designated high growth super cities with large numbers of immigrants with visas and foreign students arriving every month. How can that be stopped now?




Government Manipulation Could Create an Economic Slide

If Trudeau and Wynne try to counter rising prices and demand for homes brought on by demographic and economic factors, via policy changes, it may create a bubble and then housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver, cascading right across the country.

In fact, it’s likely that they’ll both be run over be the economic train neither had any part in creating. For Trudeau, it is hypocritical to recruit a million new immigrants and then not help withh the housing crisis.  I think he’ll come around because of this. However, it still leaves the BC and Ontario premiers left blockading the housing highway.

For those who don’t want to live in these modern mega cities, there are other areas of Canada to live. The north is undeveloped, but as more babyboomers tire of the congestion of the city, they’ll be looking for homes, at least for 6 months of the year, in Canada. They may have to go north to find one, if anyone’s building up there.

And they won’t find much relief in Muskoka, Niagara Falls, Kelowna, or Victoria. Prices are up in most retirement cities and they’re rising in Costa Rica, Mexico, Florida and Arizona. Too many people bidding on too few properties. Simple math that seems to befuddle politicians.

Before buying a home or investing in rental income property, get some advice on maximizing your investment. The path you take might be surprising. Expand your search for homes for sale with an intelligent strategy that does more than calling a Realtor.




Before you sell, consider advanced selling tactics that can capture the full interest in your home. The demand for your home or condo is out there in the real marketplace. They just aren’t aware of your property. Marketing is worth many times what you pay for it. Consider the exposure of your property on Google, Google adwords, Facebook ads, in addition to your MLS listing. Don’t be timid. Power it up!

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Toronto Condo Market Report – Update and Forecast 2017 2018

Toronto Condo Market Forecast 2018

While the Toronto housing market in 2018  is overshadowed by severe house supply shortages and ultra-high prices the condo market in Toronto and Mississauga is an attractive alternative for young buyers.

Sales of condos particularly in the under $500k market are rising and prices have risen as well. The latest Toronto condo market sales report from TREB has ben released. While TREB doesn’t publish stats on the condo market specifically much anymore, you can see the averages for each district below.

Toronto Central, Milton, Oakville, and Peel region continue to enjoy strong market demand while other areas have seen a decline in price since last fall.

The new mortgage rules now enforced means many buyers will only qualify for a much lower mortgage.




You likely have your own opinions about government meddling in the markets, however such interference can be a housing crash factor in itself.

Should you invest in a new or resale Toronto condominium? The Canadian economic Forecast and Toronto economy in particular look very good. That means condos new and old will be in demand next spring from fully employed buyers who have had time to save the big downpayments and meet more stringent lending stress tests.

As mentioned in the Toronto housing report for October, prices for Toronto condos are up 24.5% in the city of Toronto year over year.  Some of this rise is due to the coming mortgage chages. If you need a monster mortgage, you need to get hopping and call a real estate agent.

The issue of whether to buy is one of affordability for Millennial-aged buyers and as many are saving, there will be plenty of demand next spring, putting upward pressure on prices.

Millennials Are Driving The Toronto Condo Market

They’ll need more creative mortgage financing and improved condo searches to find something they can afford. Although the mortgage changes in 2018 will put an extra burden on them, and force them to stay in the rental market, they will likely have more money in the spring to buy a condo.

There’s big investor demand for condos too. Student housing is in a severe crunch in Toronto and Vancouver. Investors are well aware of the rental potential of condos and many may be investing in the Vancouver condo market and here in Toronto because of so much rental demand.

If you can’t earn a profit on capital appreciation, you can still make it on rental income.




Toronto Rents Are About to Rise

A report from BNN shows how rental income properties, including condos in Toronto. See where the big rents are.

Why are Toronto Condos such a Draw?

Toronto Condos offer higher cap rates and a larger growing pool of potential renters and buyers. And at this point with severe shortages of detached houses and townhouses, buyers are buying condos. Barry Fenton, President & CEO of Lanterra Developments, a major condo developer suggested Toronto Condo prices could could have risen 40%. They have reached 20% over this time last year.  The detached housing shortage is still alive.

When foreign investors look to escape their own country’s currency nightmares and leverage our weak loonie, they like the Toronto market. Note: If you’re a foreign real estate investor, people often refer to Toronto as being the greater Toronto area encompassing Oakville, Mississauga, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Scarborough, East York, Pickering and even out to Oshawa. The Newmarket, Bradford, and Aurora regions are included in TREB’s housing sales reports.




Toronto Condo Prices 2017

TREB District Toronto Condo Prices March 2018 Toronto Condo Prices October 2017 Toronto Condo Prices Sept 2017 Toronto Condo Prices August 2017 Sept 2016 March 2012 Price Change over Last 17 months
City of Toronto $651,100 $555,004 $554,069 $550,299 $561,376 $361,800 13.78%
Toronto West $494,400 $446,794 $450,485 $434,218 $487,061 $286,366 1.48%
Toronto Central $656,000 $620,322 $615,654 $615,680 $682,427 $422,396 -4.03%
Toronto East $411,000 $407,775 $395,859 $403,028 $467,689 $237,909 -13.79%
Halton Region $465,300 $478,611 $519,348 $528,579 $485,128 $442,625 -4.26%
Burlington $520,300 $553,029 $514,755 $476,222 $497,800 $370,667 4.32%
Halton Hills $486,300 $516,450 $294,500 $446,971 $381,017 21.65%
Milton $432,000 $413,808 $418,219 $427,594 $406,300 5.95%
Oakville $442,100 $419,438 $606,131 $523,507 $513,682 $485,800 -16.19%
Peel Region $423,600 $389,587 $385,588 $395,188 $461,830 $433,780 -9.03%
Brampton $360,000 $354,618 $336,091 $350,401 $374,596 $351,500 -4.05%
Mississauga $435,000 $395,683 $393,441 $402,344 $485,240 $453,250 -11.55%
York Region $507,000 $495,973 $481,138 $500,456 $544,528 $537,903 -7.40%
Aurora $477,000 $608,750 $562,500 $685,874 $532,785 $525,000 -11.69%
Markham $509,000 $503,796 $486,369 $503,455 $554,643 $527,518 -8.97%
Newmarket $536,000 $416,260 $444,250 $400,340 $496,125 7.44%
Richmond Hill $475,400 $452,319 $446,505 $470,076 $542,470 $596,667 -14.11%
Vaughan $531,000 $532,144 $513,618 $521,400 $593,725 $554,211 -11.81%
Durham Region $407,800 $399,687 $365,297 $376,250 $317,855 $274,350 22.06%
Ajax $396,000 $337,317 $397,125 $379,431 $378,180 $281,688 4.50%
Oshawa $358,000 $302,333 $226,347 $315,075 $243,000 $210,667 32.12%
Pickering $501,000 $448,036 $384,300 $402,316 $396,301 $340,667 20.90%
Whitby $410,000 $448,036 $395,633 $457,143 $344,461 $294,350 15.99%

The Toronto Real Estate Board covers a huge area and below we’ll zero in on communities that may represent the best ones for you to research.

Barry Fenton, President & CEO at Lanterra Developments joins BNN to discuss the Toronto Condo market. He suggests the market is aggressively priced and complains a little about how competitive it is. He says prices will rise 40% but he has a few misgivings about the Toronto Condo market.




Big Demand for Condos as Entry Level Homes

Most home buyers in the Toronto area can only hope to own a condo. Homes are averaging over $1.5 million in some areas in the GTA. And condo developments are offering more for tenants. And perhaps the key feature of Toronto condos is their proximity to work, leisure, restaurants and shopping and freedom from the grinding commute that many Torontonians face each day. So there are good reasons to buy a condo in Toronto.

But the condo investment landscape has recently been darkened by Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne. Her government’s new foreign buyer tax might hit the condo market the hardest, but most credible experts expect demand to return. It’s a short term blip (and as of Dec 2017, the demand for condos did indeed return).

Oddly, the condo market in Toronto is much less volatile than the single housing and townhouse market in Toronto. Her foreign buyer tax and rental price controls look like they’ll miss the mark.

Lets’ take a look at the most recent Toronto condo market prices and then look onward to 2018, 2018, 2019 and 2020. This blurb from the latest TREB condo market report says it all about what’s happening right now in April of 2017:

 

What else is supporting condo sales is proximity to work. Commute times are awful, gas prices are very high, and young millennials are having trouble handling rent/mortgage/ and car payments. Something has to give, so workers are choosing to move into the city near their jobs.

Where are Toronto’s Best Investment Condos?

As the graphic above shows, the top location is Toronto Central (where home prices are highest too), Toronto West and Mississauga. The bulk of these listings are in huge mega-sized condo towers and there are more of them being built. Toronto Central is also close to the U of T, Ryerson, and other colleges where off campus housing is in hot demand. It’s the same situation for Vancouver condo rental and investors should take note.

Toronto’s C02 district is your million dollar listing area. With an average price of $1,050,000 these are your Toronto luxury condos. This area is located just north of Downtown/Bloor st, near the University of Toronto. This suggests that proximity to U of T and downtown offices may be the primer driver of Toronto condo prices and may drive sales of Toronto homes as well.

Screen cap courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board. See more at trebhome.com

How Much Have Prices Risen in the Last 5 Years?

Should I Buy a Condo in Toronto?

Should you buy a condo in Toronto, Mississauga, Scarborough, or Brampton?  Demand for condo purchases is rising, the Toronto economy is strong and positive, and rents are rising fast.  At some point, you have to jump in, or you’ll never build homeowner equity.

What to Consider Before you Buy a Condo

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New TREB Report Shows Foreign Buyers Have Minimal Effect on Toronto Housing Market

Foreign Buyers Not Driving Up Prices in Toronto

A new Toronto Real Estate Board investigation has concluded that foreign buyers play a minimal role in Toronto house prices and availability. 3 key findings counter the Wynne government’s insistence that Foreign buyers and house flippers are ruining the housing market.

The report may indicate how government officials haven’t been honest to the public about the cause of high home prices in Toronto — government tax greed and ideology of privilege.

April TREB market report: a growth of 33.6% in home listings in the TREB’s MLS® System in April 2017, at 21,630. Prices rose too.

Tired of Ontario Taxes? Investigate a Costa Rica retirement.

This new finding shows the Foreign Buyers Tax in Toronto (an old school knuckle dragging approach) was a knee jerk reaction by desperate politicians. The sad part is that it could cripple the development of new homes and condos in 2018 and 2019 which would have eased the housing crisis.




It remains to be seen how Toronto condominium developers will react to the Ontario government buyers tax. Currently, the Toronto condo market is alive and healthy. But the housing crisis is unfortunately a sad reality for many Ontarians.

What happened in April 2017?

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 31.7 per cent year-over-year in April 2017. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 24.5 per cent to $920,791. — from report from TREBhome.com




Homeowners are Finally Selling!

On a positive note, and further to the real point of the study, TREB reported that home sellers appear to be loosening their grip on their homes and are putting them up for sale. The long awaited “Great Home Release” is happening now this spring 2017 in a Toronto neighbourhood near you.  tTREB’s Jason Mercer added in the published statement that it will take a long time for the pent up demand to be fulfilled in the GTA area. from the new May report from TREB.

It was encouraging to see a very strong year-over-year increase in new listings. If new listings growth continues to outpace sales growth moving forward, we will start to see more balanced market conditions. It will likely take a number of months to unwind the substantial pent-up demand that has built over the past two years. Expect annual rates of price growth to remain well-above the rate of inflation as we move through the spring and summer months,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.




“TREB strongly believes that public policy decisions with regard to the housing market should be evidence-based and supported by empirical data.”

3 Key Findings that Debunk the Foreign Influence Myth

TREB’s Report summarized these 3 key findings, that debunk the Ontario government’s insistence that foreign buyers and quick investment flips are driving the Toronto housing crisis:

  1. The number of buyers with a mailing address outside of Canada is well-below 1%
  2. Between 2008 and April 2017, the average share of foreign buyers in the Golden Horseshoe area was 2.3%
  3. The majority of foreign buyers – 87% to 90%– purchased their home as a place to live, not as a tax evasion or speculative venture (homes that were bought/sold within a short period of time – within one year of the original transaction by domestic or foreign buyers accounted for a very small share — less than 5% in 2016 and 7% between January and April 2017) of total transactions).

With the above information in hand, what is your opinion of the Ontario government and Mayor John Tory’s stated preference for the Toronto Foreign Buyers Tax? What do you believe is the real purpose of the tax? Will the incoming Ontario government simply get rid of it?  Do you consider the Toronto land transfer tax a fair tax? Do you feel the government is creating the problem with one hand and justifying its role with the other?

Get the full view of the Toronto Real Estate market, along with the Newmarket housing report, and Mississauga housing market report and forecasts.

Should you sell your house fast or for a high price?  In the past 3 months Americans have been selling their home for an average $336,000 more than they paid for it. It’s one more reminder that real estate is where the real money is. And if you’ve been reading my posts, you’ll see that government red tape and land restriction is the real driver of high real estate prices. So if you’re renting, gaining no equity, while your life passes, and can’t come up with hundreds of thousands for a down payment, now you know why. It’s time to speak with your local government representatives about opening up land for development. The alternative is pay the future home prices which could rise another 30% in 2018 (depending on the economy and how well J Trudeau gets along with you know who).

Latest year over year Toronto region home prices (April 2016 to 2017):

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com




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Up or Down. How Will the Foreign Buyers Tax Affect Toronto Condo Prices?

Toronto Condos – Still a Smart Investment?

Screen Cap Courtesy of Pier 27 Condominiums, Toronto

The Toronto Condo Market couldn’t be more difficult to comprehend right now after the Liberal’s pushed their unwise Foreign buyers tax and rent controls. With availability of condos squeezed, prices in Toronto rose to record levels. What will happen this year and 2018 in Toronto’s condo market?

Toronto Real Estate Boards latest facts:  Condo availability down 18.8% and condo prices were up 24.3% compared to last year.  Demand for condos is expected to stay strong or strengthen while sustained lower availability should keep prices strong 2017 through to 2020.





Questions: Which way will prices and condo supply go in Toronto? Will reduced condo construction offset any rent controls now in effect? Can investors and condo developers still make a good ROI despite the rogue foreign buyers tax? Will the Ontario’s measures push the province into recession? 3 housing experts weigh in with their views below.

Should I Sell my Condo Now?

Urbanation’s Shaun Hildebrand

Urbanation senior vice-president Shaun Hildebrand suggested that rent increases had leveled off recently due to a new supply of condos hitting the Toronto market. His beliefs correspond with many experts belief that a lack of supply is the problem and that new supply tames the price increases.

In the Urbanation post: “While the market remains undersupplied, the report says the 11,315 newly completed condos that reach closing in the past six months helped to alleviate recent pressure on rents.”




The new foreign buyer tax is expected to kill demand from foreign investors. Kathleen Wynne has characterized these foreign investors as speculators as “undesirable” parking their money. She didn’t comment on whether immigrant investors are coming here to launch their business to give their kids a great education. She failed to specify why foreign investors parking money here is wrong or illegal. And she provided absolutely no data regarding how much foreign investment actually takes place in the Toronto Housing Market.

A number of Realtors and experts say foreign investment is only a small portion of the Toronto housing market.

If that’s the case, Toronto condo prices similar to Toronto detached home prices will likely not fall much and will recover probably by late summer. Some say this will be a brief market letdown and if new condo projects dwindle in number, it will only drive up condo prices in 2018 and 2019.

As you can see in these stats from TREB below, condo prices in Markham, Vaughan, Toronto West, Richmond Hill and even the hot zone of Toronto central, are reachable for many buyers. Adding 20% should still make them affordable.

Emporis, a research firm that specializes in Condo development reporting says there are 154 condo projects currently in construction in Toronto with another whopping 364 planned and 382 unbuilt. Ontario’s depressing tax could put prevent many new projects from moving forward which will constrain development and lower condo availability. That will move Toronto condo prices higher in the long term, assuming Ontarios economy can continue improving.

Barry Fenton, CEO of Lanterra Developments

Lanterra Development is a major condo developer in Toronto forecasts that condo prices will rise another 40%. Here’s the video interview with Catherine Murray of BNN.

Brad Lamb of Brad J Lamb Realty

In an early interview with Brad Lamb, a well known Realtor specializing in downtown Toronto Condos, Lamb suggested the Foreign Buyers Tax could conceivably lead to recession in Toronto and across. Lamb was then quickly rebuffed by Doug Porter, Capital Markets Chief Economist of BMO Capital Markets.  Porter blurted, “And I have eaten, drank and slept the Canadian economy for more than 30 years,” which look a little like a smackdown of Lamb’s credibility and capacity to speak with authority on the matter of housing economics. However, Bank representives to tend to align with current government positions on these types of decisions so we have to question Porter’s credibility as well.




In that same BNN interview, David Madani, of Capital Economics said that Toronto new housing construction accounts for 1% of Canada’s GDP:  “Accordingly, a moderate slowdown in Toronto housing construction wouldn’t put the entire economy into recession… It would take a much broader negative shock to national housing investment and personal consumption to put the whole economy into recession.”

But as we know now, the US is beginning to apply border taxes and we have to wonder when Trump will tax Ontario’s lucrative auto industry. The 1% that foreign investment in real estate provides, suddenly looks large. Now that the tax has been announced, foreign investors and our own condo development companies won’t trust the government.

 

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Toronto House Prices

Toronto House Prices – Rise or Fall in 2018?

Toronto house prices in 2018 have taken a somewhat similar downward path as the Real Estate market in Vancouver did in 2017.  This depression may not last long.

Condos in Toronto on the other hand are home buyer’s soup du jour for 2018, 2019, and 2020 because of new mortagage rules and limited availability.  Constructions starts are down due to rent controls and buyer worries over government behanviour.

Both provincial governments took credit for the sales and price drops, but the truth is, is that buyer psychology caused the market to moderate in sales only. Whether buying or renting, prices are high and it’s still a seller’s market.

The Toronto real estate market hasn’t lost much in the way of price even though sales have dropped.  The worrisome aspect of this sudden roller coaster ride of prices is the effect on the Canadian economy which is highly rated, but somewhat insecure.




In Toronto and Vancouver, the downpayment for a home/condo alone, is enough to buy a property outright in most other places across Canada.  Rising private debt, stagnant wages, and low interest rates could be enough to form a bubble and lead to a crash. But most experts feel the Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets will be just fine.




Why these politicians are so adamant in their opposition to housing growth isn’t known. As the NDP government comes into power in BC, prices in Vancouver have begun to advance. As long as housing is in short supply, the price pressure will always be upward. That’s a good cue for all real estate investors.

According to TREB, the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark price rose 9.7% YoY, in October.  The average selling price for all home types was $780,104 – up by 2.3% compared to the average of $762,691 in October 2016.

Graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com

House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts in 2017

Average Prices and Price Growth – Detached Homes TREB 
City October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 17 months Price Change Last 6 Months
Burlington $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $921,434 $1,071,980 $1,083,144 $961,502 -7% -17%
Halton Hills $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $819,770 $789,094 $825,058 $828,719 -5% -5%
Milton $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $875,123 $965,488 $932,899 $765,973 15% -5%
Oakville $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,368,523 $1,312,370 $1,561,514 $1,191,503 24% -5%
Brampton $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $750,856 $801,246 $871,052 $660,015 17% -11%
Caledon $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $1,083,138 $1,102,645 $1,190,527 $755,494 26% -20%
Mississauga $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $1,113,952 $1,067,449 $1,136,083 $966,467 7% -9%
Toronto West $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $1,131,637 $1,118,602 $1,142,292 $944,422 17% -3%
Toronto Central $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $2,080,982 $2,199,630 $2,488,673 $1,983,187 3% -18%
Toronto East $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $949,712 $956,883 $991,509 $860,814 8% -6%
Aurora $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,201,830 $1,225,236 $1,360,696 $1,155,487 11% -6%
E Gwillimbury $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $867,833 $1,074,667 $973,263 $764,055 33% 4%
Georgina $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,543 $652,508 $766,273 $548,886 -4% -32%
King $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,529,767 $1,455,423 $1,756,387 $1,283,432 47% 7%
Markham $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,477,487 $1,423,179 $1,580,570 $1,363,887 8% -7%
Newmarket $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $901,720 $919,855 $990,592 $841,593 9% -7%
Richmond Hill $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,439,065 $1,675,661 $1,584,327 $1,412,443 -5% -15%
Vaughan $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,273,340 $1,333,412 $1,479,774 $1,191,632 7% -13%
Whitchurch Stouffville $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,096,864 $1,255,011 $1,343,913 $1,048,658 -11% -31%
Ajax $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $679,180 $752,997 $814,521 $646,370 6% -16%
Brock $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $734,896 $706,307 $531,986 $419,758 3% -19%
Oshawa $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $508,039 $530,780 $570,536 $467,981 10% -9%
Pickering $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $810,351 $897,685 $668,723 $772,399 2% 18%
Scugog $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $673,489 $675,887 $673,314 $545,804 13% -9%
Uxbridge $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $793,853 $896,281 $931,841 $798,749 29% 11%
Whitby $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $765,260 $815,993 $804,322 $618,032 13% -14%
Orangeville $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $566,438 $585,717 $591,279 $490,825 10% -9%
Innisfil $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $593,208 $575,940 $762,901 $476,756 10% -31%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price October Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Avg Price Feb 2017 Price Change Since Feb 2017
Toronto W01 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 $1,496,501 14.2%
Toronto W02 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 $1,269,501 0.3%
Toronto W03 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 $819,572 -9.5%
Toronto W04 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 $1,049,570 -20.0%
Toronto W05 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 $889,235 -1.6%
Toronto W06 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 $966,571 -4.6%
Toronto W07 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 $1,437,219 2.6%
Toronto W08 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 $1,491,329 -9.0%
Toronto W09 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 $1,019,588 -4.3%
Toronto W10 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 $758,259 -9.3%
Toronto C01 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 $2,352,876 -40.8%
Toronto C02 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 $2,443,750 -5.3%
Toronto C03 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 $2,747,397 -31.6%
Toronto C04 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 $2,469,565 -10.1%
Toronto C06 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 $1,516,558 -18.0%
Toronto C07 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 $1,922,347 -9.4%
Toronto C08 $814,000 $1,700,000 $1,603,333 $2,100,833 $1,625,000 $1,999,000 -59.3%
Toronto C09 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 $4,160,891 -17.9%
Toronto C10 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 $2,146,833 -15.8%
Toronto C11 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 $2,162,613 -12.3%
Toronto C12 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 $3,986,692 -5.3%
Toronto C13 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 $2,204,960 -31.1%
Toronto C14 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 $2,746,606 -27.1%
Toronto C15 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 $2,145,518 -9.4%
Toronto E01 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 $1,221,833 -7.1%
Toronto E02 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 $1,622,159 -7.9%
Toronto E03 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 $1,134,094 -9.8%
Toronto E04 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 $928,362 -17.3%
Toronto E05 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 $1,262,751 -19.3%
Toronto E06 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 $940,073 -18.5%
Toronto E07 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 $1,111,507 -19.2%
Toronto E08 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 $1,025,958 -1.1%
Toronto E09 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 $855,064 -13.5%
Toronto E10 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 $981,789 -8.5%
Toronto E11 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 $761,409 -0.4%

If you examine the latest house price trends in the GTA, you’ll see moderation, yet not all TREB districts saw reductions. In some areas, they’re still climbing almost in defiance of any market meddling.

For sellers, the agonizing questions of whether they should sell now, is being solved. They held on to get the highest price and are eager now to unload their property. Some got too greedy and are accepting up to $300k less than last spring’s offers. Timing is everything in real estate.

A lack of housing supply will keep prices up for many years ahead. The Ontario governmet is more concerned with rising rents than it is in encouraging new construction.  Rent contorls are already drying up up the availability of rental properties.

Currently, the condo market is thriving, however once the new construction condos have been sold and occupied, prices overall will climb.




Home Price Index for Toronto vs rest of Canada courtesy of Terranet National Bank housing index.

Toronto Home Prices june 2017

That Old House means so much more to buyers. They have the vision, the dream and they’re willing part with $1.5 million to live the dream. If you’ve got a home to sell right now, you need to hire a Realtor and capitalize on this glorious market opportunity.

The Mindset of Homeowners Who Need to Move on

Realtors need to be more psychologically aware and effective by adopting the mindset and vocabulary of the very people who move on. What words, phrases, images and activities do optimistic home sellers use? Retirees and 45+ people have priorities. Find them and speak their dreams.

And if you’re thinking of selling your Toronto home you need to use that vocabulary too. There is an incredible array of lifestyle opportunities for you. The world has never offered so much for the International home buyer. No homes in Ontario? No problem, beautiful places such as Costa Rica, Belize, Nicaragua, Mexico, Chile, and Dominican Republic await.

Why do people settle for a lesser life than they can have?

When Will Toronto’s Market Crash?

There may not be a crash, but no one is saying that for sure.

The Toronto Housing crisis is one partly of homeowners never dreaming that they get this kind of ROI out of the old house they bought. None of us were trained or educated for this opportunity. The result is too many older people hanging onto their homes, more out of being confused and unprepared to progress with their lives.

If you have a good Toronto Realtor, you really can sell your home at above expectations. Above asking is easy. Don’t even mention above asking, since everyone is using the lowball strategy to create bidding wars. Houses are selling for outrageous prices because Realtors are smart about building big demand from the right people.




Best Return Ever in Toronto

Even with foreign buyers out of the picture, demand for housing is huge in Toronto. From Mississauga, to Newmarket to Vaughan and Oshawa, people crave homes. And single detached homes with yards are the holy grail. So rare, so pleasant and rewarding some will sell their soul to the devil to be a homeowner. You don’t have to sell the joy of ownership theme to them.

So what are you doing right now to move forward and capitalize on the “Best Investment Return ever?” It’s not too late. I hope you’re contacting a good Realtor right now and beginning the selling preparation process.

Don’t sell your house in 3 days. Take your time and sell it for $75,000 more. It’s your hard earned investment and you deserve the best. Always think highly of yourself. Your Realtor will have lots of ideas about how to make the buyers very happy and contented. The improvements on your home for instance will add value and carry them forward.

I’ve written a variety of posts on selling your house, how now is the time to sell your house, and about retiring pleasantly in Central America. Time to travel, time to really enjoy life away from the city, and your time to celebrate your life. Sell that home!

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Toronto Housing Market Report November 2016

Toronto Home Prices Soar Again

The Toronto Real Estate Board has released their November 2016 MLS sales report which includes home prices in the Greater Toronto market. Sales are up 16.5% from last November, and home prices rose by 22.7% YoY. It’s a scary time for investors, and perhaps a tougher time for millennial aged couples trying to buy their first home.

This may be the right time to sell your home. Who will market your home?  From SEO, to Content marketing and paid advertising, and aerial drone video, digital marketing can start bidding wars.

Buyers, are you still thinking the stock market is better than real estate? See this post for more perspective on the Toronto Real Estate market and 2017 forecast.




Is 2017 the best year to buy rental income property?  Find out more about the best real estate investments in 2017 including investments in real estate.

The TREB November market update shows Home prices in Mississauga were also up 20.8% overall. While most eyes are glued to the price of detached homes in Toronto, the sales of apartment condos continue an even more torrid pace, up 27.9% in sales volume, perhaps revealing a continuing strong condo apartment rental investment market similar to the one burning up San Franscisco and the Bay Area of California. Not surprisingly, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, and Aurora leads the GTA price rise parade. These 3 top performers had detached home price rises near or above 30% YoY. Richmond Hill home prices hit an astonishing $1.3 Million. Brampton lead the way with a 25% price growth for townhouses.




trebchartnovemberpriceindex

Mississauga Real Estate Brokers

Ready to Sell? My client Damir Strk is a licensed Realtor and Mortgage Broker with extensive experience across the GTA including downtown Toronto condos. He specializes in Mississauga, and can also represent you very well whether you’re in York Region, Toronto, and Oakville and Milton. He’s a great choice for the biggest financial decision of your life. Damir has 16 years experience in all housing types, including Mississauga’s many condo developments, very familiar with properties in Mississauga’s many communities, and can help advise you on mortgage financing. Contact Damir now at: (905) 828-3434.

damir

Real Estate Investors

Investors from Germany, China and Persia may find the market perfect for rental income investment. Buyers within Canada are finding the market too far out of reach. The extreme prices could make it more likely local and the provincial government may attempt to intervene without addressing the issues of lack of available land. The places to grow legislation and the OMB will be put under more intense scrutiny.

“Home buying activity remained strong across all market segments in November. However, many would-be home buyers continued to be frustrated by the lack of listings, as annual sales growth once again outstripped growth in new listings. Seller’s market conditions translated into robust rates of price growth,” said Mr. Cerqua Toronto Real Estate Board President.




See more on Mississauga homes prices and on the Toronto real estate market predictions.

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