06 Apr Aurora Newmarket Real Estate Forecast – 2018 to 2020 | New Homes for Sale | New Construction Houses Condos Resale Properties
Real Estate Market in Aurora and Newmarket
Winter 2017/2018 was a quiet one. However with spring 2018 here, we’re seeing the Newmarket real estate market, Aurora real estate market and the East Gwillimbury market offering the best availability of old stock and new homes for sale in the Toronto region.
The new stress test rules have cooled the Toronto Real estate market, and prices have cooled in York region in particular. Last spring, Aurora, Newmarket, Vaughan, and East Gwillimbury were scortching hot markets with soaring prices for detached homes.
Aurora/Newmarket Home Sales Statistics
As you can see in this chart below, home prices are very similar to 2 years ago before the bubble peaked. Active listings in Aurora has from 83 in May 2016 to 226 currently. And in Newmarket there is a much healthier 280 active listings compared to 102 in May 2016. Not great, but better for buyers.
The issue in York region is similar to cities across the US and Canada — a lack of availability. Without anywhere to go, people are hanging onto their houses even as prices slide. Their buoyed by the realization that with government development restrictions suppressing housing developments in York Region, their home price will not fall much.
If there is a Toronto housing crash, the price drops in Aurora, Newmarket, and East Gwillimbury would be extreme as we saw through the latter part of 2017. With the coming of the provincial election, we could see a new approach to housing in Ontario (although the PCs haven’t said they would ease the problem). The hope of a Toronto housing boom is fading with the NAFTA negotiations failing.
|City||Sales in January||Home Price Index Change YoY||Average Price|
|Detached House||January 2018||Dec 2017||Nov 2017||Oct 2017||Sept 2017||May 2016|
Living in York Region
This spring in 2018, buyers might find that perfect house in York Region whether new homes for sale or old housing stock. Traveling up the 404 or 400 to check out houses for sale in Aurora and Newmarket as well as Bradford and fast growing East Gwillimbury, buyers do like what they see. To buy a home in Aurora, you may be looking at $1 million.
Newcomers are impressed with the quality of living in York Region with the open spaces, clean air, Cooks Bay to the north, the Durham forest to the east, and the small town living.
Aurora and Newmarket are perfect for growing families with the number excellent schools, libraries, recreation facilities, shopping, and a vibrant commercial/business area. These are communities with a definite character and high standard of living.
If you’re investigating the Aurora and Newmarket or anywhere in Northern York region to buy a detached home or condo, you won’t be disappointed at the lifestyle in these quaint cities. Andas this most recent updated market report for 2017 suggests below, prices are appreciating and availability is being squeezed.
There are new housing developments here, some quite large, however most have already been sold out. It’s a seller’s market here like no other in York Region.
Check Homes for Sale in Newmarket or Aurora Right Now.
If you’re interested in buying or selling, send me a quick note in the form below and I’ll have an experienced and friendly realtor contact you. She’s very nice and you’ll enjoy her easy going approach. No Pressure!
If you’re hoping to sell your home (at over asking?), consider having me help you build strong demand for your home online and with a private MLS listing. I may be a good alternative to a local Aurora or Newmarket realtor. I offer a very powerful selection of Digital Marketing Services. Rather than the realtor hiring me to do all the work, why not go direct and save tens of thousands in commission?
[bctt tweet=”York Region is forecast to grow to a population of 1.79 million and employment of 900,000 by 2041″ username=”@gord_collins”]
Population Growth to Boost Demand for Detached Homes
The Aurora/Newmarket area is a special urban zone just north of Toronto, Canada, surrounded by development-blocked scrubland called green space. This scarcity of usable, development land for housing is the number one driver of skyrocketing prices in these two towns and a current housing crisis for many residents. For investors and speculators alike, this region is worth a good look.
You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t believe the housing market in the Aurora, Newmarket and Bradford area won’t boom for some time. Huge new housing developments being built currently on the west and east sides of these much desired towns are providing hundreds of new homes for sale. Those new properties are hot commodities.
It’s a testament to the popularity of the region and the growth in migration from Toronto and Mississauga, and from south YR to north YR. But without land, homes can’t be built.
Here’s some eye opening stats on how single detached home prices and listings have changed in the last 12 months in the Aurora, Newmarket, Markham, Richmond Hill area to give you some perspective before we continue.
|Sales Chart 2016||York Region Detached Home Sales Comparison September 2015 to 2016|
|City||Average Selling Price September 2015||Avg Selling Price March 2017||YOY Price Growth||Avg DOM 09/2015||Avg DOM 09/2016||New Listings||Active Listings||Avg Selling Price / Listing Price|
|Bradford E Gwillimbury||$650,324||$1,166,594||33%||30||26||58||60||101%|
Ontario Government – Places to Grow and Urban Intensification Act
Will mounting pressure on the Ontario government force the increase of more land for development? Will the lack of housing stock for resale jump prices another 28% in 2017, and throttle the market here in York Region? My guess is the slowdown forecast by expert housing analysts won’t happen until late summer next year. The Ontario government’s urban intensification plan and places to grow program will provide strong upward pressure on prices in Aurora, Markham, Richmond Hill, Stouffville and Newmarket. This is by design.
People want to live in Newmarket and Aurora and improving roads in the region will at least offer the illusion of a nice to commute to work yet the truth is, roadways have also been constrained along with housing development. Buyers are hoping and waiting for new listings in Aurora/Newmarket but the wait may be long. Just this summer the Ontario minister of Finance announced new rules that intend to restrict development even more.
Bryan Tuckey, president of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). “The net effect will be higher housing prices across the board.”
Home Prices in Aurora ON
This comparison of prices and DOM of the neighbourhoods in Aurora below should highlight how things have changed just in the last 15 months. The average home price in Aurora Estates has risen $250,000 and in the Hills of St Andrews, up a whopping $450,000! Since active listings are down this year, it suggests home prices will rise further in 2017. Will they rise through to 2020? As long as the Toronto market remains hot and overpriced, demand will keep spilling into Markham, King, Vaughan, Stouffville, and Aurora.
While new construction developments on the east side are available, there is no room to grow. Price pressure will be enormous through 2020 and beyond. If prices have risen 22% in the last, we can safely project that demand will continue through 2020 if the Toronto economy and the US economy should hold during that time.
Prices are rising fast and many homeowners who previously wouldn’t sell are finally coming to the conclusion that now is the time to sell. But the market isn’t about about to die. Even with the governments acting to add taxes and raise mortgage qualification requirements, the demand for homes in Aurora and Newmarket is high. Lately, Aurora home prices have risen faster than any other municipality in the Toronto area.
New Home Construction Developments in Aurora ON
St John’s Forest – Mattamy Homes sales office not open yet
Treasure Hill – Time Village on 25 Mavrinac Blvd. Aurora, ON
Aurora Trails – Arista Homes Sales Center at corner of Wellington St. and Mavrinac Blvd Aurora, ON
Newmarket Home Prices 2015 to 2016
A look at Newmarket home prices in the last 15 months might help us determine what kind of price increases and availability will mark the 2017 selling season. Newmarket homes sell for about $400,000 less than in Aurora, however, as more homes are sold in Copper Hills in east Newmarket near the 404, and new developments north of St Johns Sideroad, and in Glenway estates (former Glenway golf course), the average home price should rise.
Newmarket New Home Construction Developments – New Homes for Sale
Are you on the hunt for new homes for sale in Newmarket?
Copper Hills Phase 4 – Sales office at 1035 Poppy Lane, Newmarket
Glenway Phase II – Andrin Homes and Lakeview Homes presentation centre at 26 Lesmill Rd #3, North York.
The housing stock is predominantly new and categorized as luxury real estate as you can see in the Aurora homes galleries, the prices put Aurora and Newmarket homes in that category. Take a look at this gallery of Aurora luxury homes and you’ll see what’s typically available for $1.5 million to $8 million here. You’ll find some beauties in what are spectacular neighbourhoods providing an unparalleled quality of life.
Please do read the Toronto Real Estate Forecast to get up to date on the factors that are pushing Southern Ontario real estate prices up. The major reason is a huge demand for housing in general and for single detached homes in general. Millennial buyers in particular are eager to leave their parent’s homes and buy, yet prices are staggering. Previously, availability in Newmarket and Aurora were severely constrained yet price hadn’t quite jumped yet. Now prices are shooting up fast because buyers and investors are learning more about these towns. Given how desirable living north of the Green belt is, buyer demand will continue.
Demand for homes in Aurora and Newmarket will likely not abate for some time. Speculation may increase considerably in the next few years since it’s believed the Ontario government will not alleviate the places to grow legislation. There is talk about how something has to give as discussed in this article in York Region News, yet prices will likely not fall anymore than they’d fall in other popular locations. The GTA is growing and York Region is slated for growth as part of the provincial government’s plans.
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