US Housing Market Crash 2018 2019 and Beyond

Housing Market Crash 2018?

Despite the strength of the US economy, growing employment and wages, a high number of investors and homebuyers are concerned about a housing market crash in 2018 or 2019.

Take a good look at the crash factors below and the national housing market forecast along with predictions for major urban housing markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston.




Trump Volatility: No Telling Who He’ll Point at Next: Canada, China, Mexico? Trade wars can fester quickly like a wild fire.

Certainly the recent comments of the President that “Trade Wars are Good” don’t help settle the volatility in the stock markets. Strong inflation and cost of living rises, potential trade wars, along with high mortgage rates are serious threats.

In this post we try to take an objective look at the unthinkable. At least, it’s unthinkable for some that booming markets in Los Angeles, San Fransciso, Sacramento, San Jose, Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Charlotte, Boston and Miami could possibly collapse. Is the Toronto housing bubble (worst in world now) the future for US cities?



Going back to 2007, did anyone suspect what was about to happen?

When Will Local Market Bubbles Burst?

If you look at the forecasts for all the bubbled up city markets such as San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston you’ll likely think back to prices before the last crash.

Are you spooked about the real estate market in 2018 or 2019? Is the market sufficiently over heated? When will interest rates become a problem? The recent jobs report was strong, although wages aren’t overheating. Supply is coming online.

Take a look at the 12 Top Crash Factors listed below do help decide whethery buying a house or rental apartment is still a wise decision.

Check the state of the US housing market right now and 2018 forecast.

The recent stock market correction gives us pause for thought about how volatility can factor into a housing crash. However, the housing market is healthy with construction rising and it will be a long time before demand is satisfied.

Mathematicians have studied housing bubbles, such as The University of Pennsylvania, and their HOUSING BUBBLE STRUCTURAL MODEL AND HYPOTHESES models couldn’t figure it out. The factors they studied do play a role, but housing bubbles and crashes are likely a cultural phenomenon (outside of major recessions).  It comes down to values, dreams and panic emotions.

There are some financial market players who make their fortune on crashes and if consumemrs are miffed about the direction of the market, it would be fertile ground for crash talk.

As long as Americans are employed with rising wages and growing GDP, housing crashes aren’t likely. Yet, a few experts such as Harry Dent are convinced a housing market disaster looms in the next few years. Even Anthony Robbins is speaking up about it in a video below.



A growing number of homeowners and buyers are talking housing bubble. With prices stable, economy strong, and demand persistent, why would so many feel the market could crash? Is buyer and seller pessimism enough to launch a sudden collapse?

Have a good look at the current housing market along with the residential markets in cities such as Boston, Houston, Seattle, Sacramento, and Los Angeles. If you or your family are considering buying a home or condo, it’s wise to understand the macroecomic and human factors.

There’s two camps on the 2018 crash issue. First those who see the unbelievable rate of economic growth in the US and believe it has to end; and secondly, those who see only positive signals and the solid political footing of the Trump administration in its resolution to bring good paying jobs and industry back to the US.

Even if the US is headed for greater things, it doesn’t preclude the possibility of a major market correction in housing. But for housing to crash, a series of factors would have to align.

12 Housing Crash Factors

  1. excessively high home prices via a price bubble
  2. increasing underwater mortgages
  3. fast rising interest mortgage rates
  4. slowing economy and sudden rises in unemployment
  5. wage growth not keeping up with home prices
  6. tax changes and geo-political shifts
  7. trade deal disturbance
  8. a stock market bubble and volatility
  9. high level of consumer debt affecting debt servicing
  10. cost of living rises
  11. risky low rate mortgages for new home buyers
  12. high oil and energy prices

We might add a very strong US dollar to the mix too. A strong dollar makes US exports too expensive thus threatening jobs here and making imports more attractive.

Even though the housing markets have substantial strength, the world is a very connected place. If China and other economies were to collapse, it might be enough to send the stock markets and real estate markets plummeting. Dent says New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston are the riskiest markets.

What did say Mellon Bank’s expert say back in 2014, about the source of recessions?

2018 will be a big year: Economist from CNBC.

Neil Kashkari talks extensively about false prophets (Alan Greenspan) and the sources of market bubbles such as $100 barrel oil, and other uncontrollable situations.  He says market bubbles and crashes are very complex and the source is often completely unexpected. Could the oil sheiks take the US economy down again? Could China do it? Is the $20 Trillion debt a threat? Or is just the end of a bull run in the stock market?

However, in those cases where debt is fueling the asset value increase, a correction could trigger financial instability, because banks might take huge losses and potentially fail.” — Neil Kashkari.

If you’ve purchased a pricey home or condo, or you’re considering buying a property in the overheated Los Angeles housing market, San Francisco housing market or those in New York, Seattle, San Jose, San Diego, Portland, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, or other hot real estate markets, you’re likely feeling some nerves of late.

The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.

In San Francisco, the risk of a bubble burst in 2018/2019 is highest and that city is ranked number 1 as highest for a crash. Prices in the San Francisco Bay area housing market are extremely high and if the tech sector does have an extended downtick with rising mortgage rates, perhaps the forecasted slide could start.

Top 10 Cities Most Likely to Experience a Housing Crash

From a report in AOL.com here are the top ten US Cities most likely to experience a crash:

  1. Portland, Oregon
  2. Charleston, SC
  3. Buffalo, NY
  4. Fresno, CA
  5. Los Angeles, CA
  6. Dallas, TX
  7. Salt Lake City, UT
  8. Austin, TX
  9. San Jose, CA
  10. San Francisco, CA

Interesting list, dominated by California and Texas, which have been doing well economically. With oil prices rising, I wonder if that will calm the situation in Dallas and Houston? A good number of people are inquiring about a Florida housing crash as well, yet Miami isn’t the whole Florida market.

Tyler Durden of zerohedge.com discusses in a post how homeowners are burdened in debt and unable to refinance their mortgages. He points to his key statistic that mortgage owners will not be refinancing their mortgages in 2017 which points in the direction of bubble bursts and crashes.

This chart below paints a very scary picture, that it’s worse than 2006.  Not only does it correlate 2017 with 2006, it shows that we’re up high on a dangerous cliff in some cities. However, most cities aren’t in this situation, so if a collapse in California, New York and Texas were to occur, other cities might survive okay.

There are other mitigating factors too such as the strengths in the economy, foreign investors buying property, and rising optimism and confidence since Trump won the election.  At this point, we’re wondering if Obama and Clinton are relieved not to have to face the mess they created? Trump seems to be up to the task and yet, he has purportedly said he would enjoy watching the crash, even if it takes down some of his real estate empire. Is this just a comment on high home prices?

The cost and availability of credit provide fuel for a bubble to inflate, inviting even less experienced, or less credit-worthy players into the game, all of whom believe they will sell their recently purchased assets at ever-increasing prices — from a CNBC post.

That credit is being freed up in 2018/2019, but will it fast enough to create huge instability if mortgage rates don’t rise precipitously? Here’s Seattlebubble’s reasoning on why we may not be in a housing bubble/crash situation:

  • still lots of all-cash buyers, with few zero-down buyers
  • no crazy neg-am, fog-a-mirror, interest-only home loans like last time
  • interest rates remaining low
  • affordability index not as bad
  • buyers and lenders more cautious

Home prices aren’t as high as they were in 2006/2007 and mortgage rates are much lower:





No one will dispute that there are big risks but for 2017, everything looks to be under control.

Are you looking for the best cities to invest in real estate? The top 80 cities to buy rental properties gives you a peak at the potential of rental property investment.

Is this the right year to buy a rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2017 and is investing in real estate a wise decision?

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Disclaimer: this post/information is meant as a discussion of housing and investing issues, ideas and trends, not as advice for investment. Please use good judgement and professional advice if you’re investing in any market whether stocks or real estate.

Housing Bubble 2018 – Will the Housing Market Crash in 2018?

Housing Bubble 2018? Will the Real Estate Market Crash This Year?

Home buyers, mortgage holders, and investors are asking more lately, “Will the housing market crash in 2018/2019?”  The US Housing Market is strong, so if this is a housing bubble, it’s a big one.

Remember the worst financial mismanagement and calamity of our era?  Subprime mortgages. 7.8 million foreclosures occurred during the 2008 housing crash and the country sunk into a severe recession.

Are we in a residential housing bubble?  While the Trump administration has brought unprecedented growth in the US job market, a preoccupation with ideological issues such as immigration and nuclear war along with cancelled trade deals point to a recession.

Take another look at the US housing market factors and fundamentals.

With job and wage growth now rising, the situation might be more one of inflation, rising interest rates, and strong housing starts. That suggests a recesson won’t be for a few years. If the jobs and industry repatriation continues, then growth could continue for many years. Industry can’t be repatriated to the US in a short time. It took China decades to gain its monopoly on manufacturing.

What is a ‘Housing Bubble’

According to investopia, A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. Housing bubbles grow with an increase in housing demand, pressured by limited supply. Then speculators enter the market to capitalize on capital gains and rental income property opportunities.

Supposedly, lessons were learned with controls on lending practices. Yet, could housing plunge for different reasons this time? Is a bubble a certain sign of a housing market crash? Experts think so.

12 Reasons for a Housing Crash

  1. excessively high home prices from a price bubble
  2. sudden underwater mortgages
  3. rising interest mortgage rates
  4. slowing economy and sudden rises in unemployment
  5. wage growth not keeping up with home prices
  6. geo-political shifts
  7. trade deals
  8. a stock market bubble and volatility
  9. level of consumer debt
  10. cost of living rises
  11. risky low rate mortgages for new home buyers
  12. high oil and energy prices




Homeowners are wise to be wary. The last crash cost many their homes and savings. Billions wiped out. There were plenty of expert predictions about a crash in 2016 and 2017, but that didn’t happen. That’s because the US  economy is too strong and frankly, it doesn’t look to be letting up for many years.

Money manager James Stack, 66, ($1.3 billion fund) predicted the last housing crash in 2005, just before prices peaked says his “Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer” of homebuilder and mortgage company stocks is warning of another crash.

Stack’s emphasis on financial companies is interesting. He must feel that it’s this over-leveraged group, the ones we forgot about, that could be the weak link. If the Fed goes crazy with rises, it makes sense that homeowners would begin defaulting on their mortgages leading to finance company failures again.

The recent tax changes are powering up the economy fast but they’re cooling demand which could keep it from peaking further. But prices have raged forming one half of the bubble.




If we avoid a national housing crash, could individual markets in New York, Boston, San Francisco, San DiegoLos Angeles, Seattle, Miami or Houston crash?

Should you sell your house in 2018? or should you buy a house in 2018?

The problem comes when the bubble bursts and losses of 30%, 40% or more pile up quickly. Investors tell themselves they’ll be smart enough to get out in time, but that’s not true.” from a post on Bubble Dynamics by Jim Rickards.

With all the political strife in the US, there’s those who might think a housing market collapse is inevitable and could launch a stock market crash.  Maybe a few will take pleasure from it. Wars, government incompetence, political interference, weak banking system, and a weakening economy brought everything down in 2008.

price crash



Some experts warn the conditions also exist for a crash in 2018/2019. Is this just anti-Trump lobby fear mongering or is there a factual basis for a housing crash?  They point to heated up markets like Washington DC, Dallas, New York, Seattle and Denver and talk about bubbles.

They point to Presidential impeachment, trashed trade deals, global economic slides, and high consumer debt as sure signs the housing market bubble will burst.




But hold on, the stock markets are still strong with plenty of demand for housing. Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver, New York, and Boston are still showing strength during traditional weak seasons.

So is there really a US housing bubble and a tumble as early as 2018? Or will the year of the natural disaster be followed by a unusual good year for housing?

International economies play a big role now so perhaps domestic issues might not be enough to set off a housing landslide. But let’s take a closer look at all the fundamentals below.



The Last Housing Crash

Can history be a reliable guide to the 2018 to 2020 period? Looking back at the last housing crash 10 years ago, experts blamed it on everything from easy low mortgage rates to greed, house fippers, unregulated banks and lenders, mortgage underwriters and sub prime loans.

And when mortgage holders believe they will owe endlessly on a worthless high priced property, they’ll begin defaulting on their mortgages. If mortgage rates jump and they aren’t locked in at a low rate, that’s a factor.

If trade wars do begin, it could kill jobs, wage levels, and investment, resulting in a slide. The economy is the number one factor. And if foreign buyers want to sell because of currency worries, prices would fall.

It’s these worries that keep property investors up at night and a lot of people from buying.



Boston, Seattle, Denver, Atlanta, Portland, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York are cited as having the most likely conditions for a housing crash.

Those housing experts point to a number of things that exist now and could transpire in 2018 or 2019. So if the housing market was to burst, would that affect how much you should pay for a house?  If you’re a seller, should you sell your house now?

If you’d like to put up your house for sale as the market is peaking, you might want to read these homeselling tips.

The US Economic Bubble

The US housing market has ridden the longest economic rally in US history. Is this an economic bubble too?

There is an economic bubble. We’re in it. It’s a period of intense optimism with lots of disposable income to throw at home purchases. And places like California is where the tech industry has done so well, bidding has been most intense. Yet, it’s not completely out of control (although anyone in the Bay Area would argue) as the points below suggest.

Zillow Survey on US RecessionGraphic courtesy of Zillow.com

 

What happens if China calls in that debt? Interest rates would rise, layoffs would grow, mortgages would begin to default, and prices would plummet faster than they went up.





Lowest Mortgage Rates
Lowest Mortgage Rates USA

 

 

Is there Excessive Risk Taking in the Housing and Investment Market?

Experts say excessive risk isn’t present in the markets. They suggest few are overleveraged, financially stressed, and not threatened by increased interest rates.

Is Demand for Housing in the US exhausted?

It appears demand for housing is still strong and considerable building is taking place. However not enough housing is being built to satisfy current demand.



Is Debt a Problem?

US credit card debt is the highest in history and the US national debt is $20 Trillion. The US annual trade deficit is also in the trillions. The average US home buyers puts 5% down on a home whereas in the past it was 20%. There’s not a lot of new mortgage debt:

In 2016, new first lien mortgages topped $2 trillion for the first time since the end of the housing crisis, but mortgage originations were still 25 percent lower than their pre-recession average — from Magnify Money.

Average debt to income ratio is rising yet is way below what it was before the last housing bubble.

However, Equity is High

Homeownership is at its lowest level ever in the last 30 years. Most Americans make low wages and can’t afford to buy. And those who do own, have a lot of home equity.




Unofficial Conclusion: No Housing Bubble for the Foreseeable Future

It doesn’t look like the statistics support a housing bubble or a burst. The markets appear to be stable and those who are at risk of an economic downturn are renting and don’t hold mortgages.

We can say for sure that it is a good time for wealthy Americans and large multinational corporations. Record profits that they don’t appear to be willing to share with American workers. Without excessive demand from the working class, a housing bubble would have to happen from investors taking flight.

Perhaps the best way to prevent a housing bubble from happening and an economic catastrophy is to not allow half of Americans to participate in the housing markets. This is why the property rental market is piping hot.  There may not be an end to demand for rentals.

Have a good look at the student housing investment opportunities. It seems students are starved for accommodation and new REITs are serving the market.



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10 Ways to Avert a Toronto Housing Market Crash

How to Avert a Toronto Housing Market Crash?

Toronto’s real estate market overheated in 2017 due to housing availability problems. The possibility of an economy damaging housing market crash is very real in Toronto now because NAFTA is in jeopardy.

Why is an impending Toronto housing crash a disaster for us? The economy may crash creating unemployment and mortgage defaults, scare off investors, and ruin the home building trend that’s finally taking off.

Here’s 11 solutions below that don’t require housing development on the most ecologically sensitive areas near Milton, Mississauga, or Oak Ridges Moraine near Richmond Hill, Vaughan, and Newmarket.

The Bubble is Spreading Outside the GTA

The heat from the Toronto market is spreading outward into Niagara region, Cambridge and Waterloo/Guelph and up into Barrie. The problem with all of these pressure valves is that the Ontario government’s Evil places to grow legislation is preventing growth in those areas too.

The core problem in the market isn’t out of control demand for housing, because demand for homes by Ontarians has always been present. The government’s arrogance toward people’s need for housing is seen in rising rents, home prices, hopelessness, and homelessness. The Liberal government in particular, is politically opposed to developed. The dreaded conservatives who will form the next Ontario government, may have a different outlook, at least enough to get them voted in.

The US Housing Marketing has never been better for real estate marketing and real estate investing.

The Lack of Housing Stock is Killing Ontario

The crux of the housing bubble in Toronto is lack of housing stock. Building and housing development have been suppressed and unsupported in the GTA region such that any increase in demand, foreign or domestic, would create a home price crisis. It’s our government who have funneled all demand at a limited amount of homes and this creates inflation in the economy (which makes for more short term tax revenue).

Anyway you cut the pie, the government wants to own, control it, and take the biggest piece.

The current attitude of government as you can see in this 2nd video below is irresponsible. Tax manipulation isn’t a solution nor is mortgage manipulation. Only a positive support of new home building will work. Millennials will not forego their family building years and will buy single detached homes or townhouses to live in.





Foreigners will continue moving here and how can the government prevent them from buying homes or condos.  Demand is booming and many are saying that a housing crash can’t occur because of that unending demand. But these people have forgotten completely about how much harm government can do as the begin making new policies to solve their previous mistakes.

Demand and Prices Highest in 8 Years: CBC Video

And here’s John Tory from 5 years ago warming how government is driving a problem in the Toronto market, but he goes on to blame foreign investment for high home prices and high condo prices. Tory still believes in rent controls which would discourage new housing.

It’s a big picture problem driven by government’s desperation for tax revenues which they then squander on pet projects that only make the problem worse. Now that we’re more sure of the origin of the problem, we can begin brainstorming some last minute solutions to ward off a Toronto housing crash.

11 Good Ways to Avert the Toronto Real Estate Bubble and Crash

The Toronto housing bubble is underway and heading toward an explosive burst. Here’s some solutions:

  1. Cancel the Places to Grow legislation
  2. penalty/fee for empty condos or homes
  3. severely restrict or disable the Ontario Municipal Board and change their mandate to support development not to prevent it
  4. give home builders generous new incentives and tax breaks for building outside of Toronto
  5. push builders and developers out into towns outside of the GTA
  6. provide tax incentives for businesses to relocate to communities outside of the GTA
  7. raise taxes on land gobbling monster homes and private estates
  8. lower taxes on townhouses and low rise condos
  9. cancel all land transfer taxes for the immediate future
  10. provide tax incentives for real estate investment in new projects
  11. tax break for home sellers to move onto retirement and moving to lower cost regions

These incentives and actions would encourage mobilization of government and money to create new homes and take the pressure off the Toronto and Mississauga areas.




Chime in on how you would solve the Toronto housing bubble pressure and avert a crash that’s looming.

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When Should I Sell My Home?

Should I Sell My House to Avoid the Coming Market Crash?

Timing is everything. Buy low, sell high and right now, the housing market is high. But the question a lot of homeowners are asking is “When will the real estate market crash?”

The Toronto housing market does have all the earmarks of a soon to crash market. And we know from viewing the historic charts that Toronto doesn’t recover well from these events. After the big crash or burst bubble event, housing prices stayed low.

Selling with experts means you may get an over asking price which is still common now.

Yet, today’s market is fed by International money — buyers from China, Russia, and the Middle East. And they can’t buy in the US because of wicked prices there.  So they’re coming here where their kids can get a first rate education and get citizenship in Canada. They definitely see a home as an investment and their money will continue to fuel the Toronto market.




So the “should I sell my home question” doesn’t have a certain answer, but the time is coming soon. The Toronto real estate market crash could happen late this year or may not happen for several years yet. We’ve all been expecting a Toronto market collapse for some time now, but it just hasn’t happened. We haven’t been finding and examining the real underlying factors.

Looking at the price charts alone isn’t sufficient. First we’ve just come away from the worst financial and housing recession ever in the US, and now the US is getting its financial act together. That fuels strength for a long time.

Screen Capture courtesy of Toronto Real Estate Board

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Why Wait for the Last Minute to Sell?

Quite a few homeowners are selling already and choosing to rent. Yet, finding a rental in the GTA for a decent price is very difficult. There is a rental crisis going on right now too. If you can find a rental, it’s a good time to sell your home.

The more sensible choice is to sell and move to parts of Florida, Costa Rica, Belize, Panama, or even Nicaragua. The cost of living is way less and you can get a lot for your $800,000 plus investment. You can rent an apartment in the Dominican Republic for $1000 month and live very well too. The health benefits of moving are something to consider.

Should you sell your house so you can travel? This could be your travel time, before you’re too old to travel.

Should you sell your home because your neighborhood isn’t what it used to be? All neighborhoods deteriorate over time.

Should you sell to move closer to your kids? Prices are really low across Canada.

 

 




Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, Toronto, Mississauga Vancouver, San Diego, San Francisco, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, and Dallas.  Check out local outlooks for Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond HillBradford ON, and Vaughan.

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