Canadian Economic Forecast 2018: IMF and OECD Gives Canadian Economy Two Thumbs Up!

The Canadian Economic Forecast

The International Monetary Fund says Canada is the leading G7 Country

How odd is it in 2018, that a country on the verge of trade wars, real estate collapse in its major cities, flat wage growth, mediocre job growth, merciless consumer debt, and a sagging national housing market would be cited as the G7’s darling child?

In a new report just released, the IMF likes Canada’s economic situation and they’ve forecasted some lofty economic growth rates. Quite a rosy prediction for 2018 and beyond

Their confidence could impact the Toronto real estate forecast, | Calgary Housing Market Forecast and the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2018. And it could end the talk of a real estate market crash and begin to attract foreign investment into Canada once again.

Growth of 3.6% to 3.7% Predicted

For entrepreneurs, mortgage agents, realtors, manufacturers, retailers, builders, renovators, homebuyers and banks, this is a positive signal about growth ahead. Trump is looking to renegotiate NAFTA which doesn’t mean shutting out Canada.  The negative media hype is ridiculous. Even with renegotiation, Canadian small business has a good opportunity. If Trump has an issue, it’s likely with the multinationals who continue to rule everything including politics.

Despite sluggish growth for its major trading partner, the IMF believes Canada is poised for growth of 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2018. That has to sound good for job hunters, real estate agents, mortgage agents, house buyers, and business development managers alike.




Underpinning all the optimism is the IMF’s belief in a broad-based global economic upswing. Does this mean the world has adjusted to US trade protectionism, or is Trump actaully unable to do anything about the US situation? The IMF points to Trump’s inability to get new tax laws passed and to the level of optimism globally. With Trump’s new tax bill passed, the US stock market could boom for at least one more year, and that’s good news for the Canadian economy.

This might come as quite a surprise to most of us who haven’t heard such a rosy forecast for the world as a whole. However, much of the uncertainty of housing and stock markets was of a global nature and it may be subsiding.

An earlier report from the OECD set Canada’s growth rate at 3.2% for 2018. Strangely, although Canada is believed to be the leader, overall global growth is set for 3.7%, a half percent above Canada’s forecast rate of growth.

The OECD is also calling on Canada to ease foreign investment restrictions and ease the Toronto/Vancouver housing crisis. Given that Canada is mired in the lowest levels of foreign investment ever, it would be healthy for the Vancouver and Toronto housing and condo markets along with the TSX stock market if such investment was allowed to flow.




The OECD also cites Canada’s lack of productivity as a big concern, however it appears the country has been able to make use of its assets to generate growth.

A BNN poll found that most viewers believe tax rates and the NAFTA deal are the key worries about the Canadian economy.

Canada’s Economic Facts

  • growth in 2nd quarter of 2017 was 5%
  • household spending was up 4.6% in June (YoY)
  • job growth was 186,000 over the first half of 2017
  • exports expanded 9.6%
  • central bank only expected to raise interest rate slightly
  • national trade deficit increased to $3.4 billion in August

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Donald Trump on the US Economy, Reform, and Real Estate Market

What Donald Trump Said

2 months ago, I forecasted that Donald Trump would become the next President and sure enough, at the last minute, he pulled it off. I mentioned that Americans appeared tired of economic stagnation, debt, minimum wage futures, political lobbying and corruption, and a lack of control over their own lives and in 2017 they would have a new president to make the changes.

But even as we inspect what New York’s Donald Trump has said he wanted to do, the real matter is how he could make change in jobs, energy, real estate development, and trade.
Yet Trump is a hotel and real estate magnate, so this has to bode well for the travel and real estate sectors. Trump is all about real estate development. Trump stated he will change the tax brackets (lowering taxes for some) so they have more money for a purchase.




Once investment and laws are changed, the US should see an honest revival of its economy and as momentum grows over the years ahead, it makes sense that fairer trade and a made in America emphasis will see jobs and investment come back to the US. It’s doubtful that China and Mexico will be devastated and I might add that Canada may follow the same road to bring jobs back from China and Mexico. Those who have lost their jobs to foreign companies know what’s been happening at a real life and emotional level. Once jobs return, the euphoria will begin.

Whoever actually voted for Trump, their decision is one that’s put rich multi-national companies, billionaires, and even pampered Hollywood stars in their place. Clinton and the Democrats had no real plan to boost the economy, create jobs and fix the trade deficit problem with China, Japan and Mexico. I thought it was a no brainer — Trump was the people’s only hope despite the thrashing the media gave him. None of it mattered because Americans are determined to bring back prosperity.

Is 2018 the best year to buy rental income property?  Find out more about the best investment opportunities in 2017 including investing in real estate




Everyone is wondering what a Donald Trump, president elect, lead government will look like. What did he say about housing and home ownership anyway? And how will his policies actually support small and medium-sized US businesses?

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A good number of people are still upset right now that the much hyped new President got in. He promised to drain the swamp in Washington, fix trade deals with China, Mexico and Japan, and help people buy a home. And in San Diego, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, just as in New York City, Miami, Seattle, and most urban area, people have given up on the idea of owning and having equity in a home. That American dream had died.

homeownership
How do You Feel about This Statistic on Home Ownership?

Here’s a key statements and quotes from him (if you’re willing to believe his statements):

American homeownership rate in Q2 2016 was 62.9% – lowest rate in 51 yrs,” Trump tweeted July 30, 2016. “WE will bring back the ‘American Dream!”

It’s not hard to believe that homeowners in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco are low. Not much of a controversy there. How many millennials can afford a Million dollar property?

If his heart and head really are into making home ownership a reality for those in California, Texas, Florida, and New York and cities across the US where prices have gone bonkers, mostly due to a lack of development land. Trump’s bombastic style will fade in importance as he’s forced to get down to work and fix the American economy. There’s mention we’ll have panic and high global prices yet they’ll likely go down as manufacturers become more concerned about getting their products to their main customers — US consumers.




“I’m going to bring jobs back from China, Mexico Japan, Vietnam. They are taking our jobs. They are taking our wealth. We have $2.5 trillion offshore. We’re going to bring that money back. You take a look at what happened just this week, China bought the Chicago Stock Exchange. Nabisco and Ford, they’re all moving out. We have an economy that last quarter didn’t grow. We have to make our economy grow again” — Source: 2016 CBS Republican primary debate in South Carolina , Feb 13, 2016

Trump also has a lot of power now yet even the experts don’t know how he can improve the economy and boost the real estate and housing markets.

“A few years ago, Moody’s, the financial investment agency, calculated that every $1 of federal money invested in improving the infrastructure for highways and public schools would guarantee $1.44 back to the economy. Infrastructure investments have one of the strongest direct economic impacts.”  Source: Crippled America, by Donald Trump, p124-5 , Nov 3, 2015

“My policy is going to be something that’s going to set the country back right. I mean, one of the big things is we have to take back jobs from China.”  Source: Meet the Press 2015 interviews of 2016 presidential hopefuls , Aug 2, 2015.

So much for election promises and public political statements. We might want to visit his website and then calculate what impact taking jobs back from China, India, Japan, and Mexico will do.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/energy/

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/economy/




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