Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2018

April 5, 2018.  The February TREB report isn’t hugely informative, however it does reiterate the downward housing market in Toronto.  The Toronto housing market shrank 39% in March 2018 compared to March of 2017.

Strangely, home prices rose 2.2% vs February, so are we seeing the beginning of the turnaround?  Hope isn’t enough in a repressive market.  Change is needed and it looks like the factors will align this summer.

Although news reports suggest the market is stabilizing, there doesn’t seem to be a bottom in sight yet for luxury homes. They took a precipitous fall this winter. Those who didn’t sell last spring and fall may have been feeling sick all winter long.

Time to Prepare to Sell Your Home or Condo?

The monthly stats below and trends seem to be predicting this may be the best time to sell your home. I’ve predicted a boom after the election, and if we improve our trade agreement with the US, GTA home prices and the Canadian dollar should jump.




Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices may plummet further in February and March only to begin a strong rise in April. Why? The election in 4 months and the NAFTA fears will have abated.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

Share the Toronto Real Estate Market forecast on FB or Linkedin.

Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Share this detailed monthly home prices report with your friends.



Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Houses for Sale in the Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moving to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.

 

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Canadian Dollar Forecast – Predictions for CAD USD Conversion Rates Forex

Will the Loonie to Fall Much Further in 2018 / 2019?

Businesses, snowbirds, currency speculators, forex brokers, and importers in Canada are all trying to forecast where the CAD USD currency rate is headed.  Currency rates are complex however the data is suggesting this latest downward slide will continue.

Only 2 years ago, some red-faced currency rate forecasters expected the loonie to plunge to 60 cents USD. That forecast seemed outlandish and unlikely given Canada’s rising economic output.  Politics and persistent US strength have changed the USD/CAD outlook however.

The Loonie fell to 76. 43 USD on Friday marking it’s lowest conversion rate since last June. That might scare some and put a smile on the face of others. At 75 cents US, US buyers will get an extra 33% in Canadian money. Canadian Realtors should be looking to attract US property investors.

USD vs CAD Current Rate. Screenshot courtesy of TradingEconomics and Tradingview
USD vs CAD Current Rate. Screenshot courtesy of TradingEconomics and Tradingview

Weighted US Dollar Set to Rise Again?

This chart shows the USD weighed against other major currencies such as the Yen, Euro, CAD, AUS, BPD etc. If NAFTA conflict is resolved as expected, oil prices fall, and US interest rates rise, the USD will rise again.

USD weighted average index courtesy of FRED

It’s Not so Hard to Understand the Loonie’s Fall

The loonie is plummeting because there is nothing economically supporting it, and investors are seeing Canada’s vulnerability. Smoke and mirrors and government currency manipulation are propping the CAD rate right now. But the Bank of Canada can’t keep buying up Loonies.

Low US tax rates puts Canadian businsses at a serious disadvantage against larger US companies.

For those of us in this category, the forecast appears to be for a lower Canadian dollar. Will it hit 60 cents? Can the Canadian federal and provincial governments lower our taxes or top their spending? Will foreign businesses suddenly decide to invest in Canada again?

Will anyone invest in Canadian oil, mining, and agriculture when BC is bottling them up so it can’t get to market? Is the US becoming self-sufficient in oil and gas?

Will Oil Prices Fall?

Canada’s energy sector drives the loonie, particularly oil prices.  If OPEC is unable to continue their tactics and with US shale producing 7 million barrels a day, thus flooding with oversupply, oil could plunge to $30 a barrel. That might see the CAD/USD exchange rate fall below 70 cents this summer.

Most experts predict oil prices will stay where they are at $60 a barrel but this video below says historical data is suggesting a fall.

The US is set to overtake Russia as as the top oil producer. And in Canada, the oil sands would have to be shut down as they can’t produce oil at $40 a barrel. Calgary may be headed for a crisis.

“U.S. shale growth is very strong, the pace is very strong … The United States will become the No.1 oil producer sometime very soon,” from Reuters.

Please do Share this outlook on the Loonie on Linked in or Facebook

Is TPP Really a Good Deal for Canada?

When Trudeau recently signed the TPP and agreed to open trade with Pacific Rim countries, it leaves Canada further vulnerable to being taken advantage of by countries who don’t buy our stuff. Our global trade deficits will rise even if global economies are doing well right now.

And China doesn’t concern itself with pollution or carbon production limits.  Our trade deficit with the world can only worsen.

Canadian Trade Deficit Last 12 Months. Screenshot courtesy of TradingEconomics.

More statistics related to the CAD are available at Trading Economics.

The United States Phenomenal Growth

It isn’t aonly that our economic performance sucks, it’s that the US is booming. Despite all the talk of interconnected supply chains, the US could do fine without our input.

It’s stock markets, foreign investment and housing markets are strong. And the boom looks like it will continue, because as Donald Trump has stated, trade wars don’t hurt the US, they hurt the other countries who are addicted to trade surpluses with the US.

Trumps threatened trade tarriffs as part of his negotiating style, are making investors very aware of Canada’s precarious situation. For any investor, it is wiser to invest in the US which is why forex traders and investors are buying greenbacks. It’s safer with a market 1000% bigger with 350 million consumers with lots of US dollars to spend.

Most of us know that trade with the US will probably be the same as usual, however Trump has said he wants auto industry jobs back in the US, and the US shale oil and gas industry is booming. Exports of Canadian softwood, dairy and wheat are going to fall, NAFTA or not.

The US has a 20+ Trillion debt, and a massive yearly trade deficit that they have to deal with. Canada is just a casualty in this war against trade deficits.

Canadian Dollar Factors

As you can view on the Canadian Federal Government Website, here are the key factors that determine the USD/CAD conversion rate:

  1. comparable interest rates
  2. commondity prices
  3. inflation rates
  4. goods and services trade balances
  5. foreign investment and debt payments
  6. GDP

Most of these determinant factors of the Canadian dollar currency rate are weakening. And if Toronto and Vancouver’s housing market should slide, foreigners will be withdrawing their money fast. Verdict: Toronto housing crash = big loonie drop.

Leaders Driven by Ideology Never see These Events Coming

Justin Trudeau’s 1970’s ideology, inability to lead, and his pro-carbon-credit fanaticism further ensures Canada will struggle to compete. We have the worst record for foreign direct investment, and nothing is coming to the rescue.
If Canadian companies can’t get their products to market in the US, no one is buying CAD. And if the loonie is low, who would consider investing in Canadian businesses struggling to create to generate revenue?

Canadians are seriously indebted and as interest rates rise, consumer spending will fall, further dampening corporate earnings here. Investors will flee for big the big returns south of the border.

Check the USD/CAD forecast if you’re buying rental income property in the US.

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Predictions of a Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver in 2018 Reports Forecasts Predictions Canadian Housing Market

Will 2018 Bring Another Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver?

Are the Vancouver real estate market or Toronto housing market going to crash , lift off, or coast in 2018/2019? Has all the negative press made you believe the end is near?

Bankers and politicians keep trash talkin the housing markets. However, as you’ll read here, there is more reason to believe in strong growth arising from a healthy economy, high immigration, demand from 25 to 33 year old Millennials, low mortgage rates, a growing housing crisis and more.

Demand is high, supply is being strangled.

Wynne, Trudeau, and the bankers feel pretty certain they can crush this market (okay, they’ve persisted but will the Canadian economy and stock markets crash in 2019?  But this beast isn’t going to die. It’s driven by dreams and expectations about how we’re supposed to live.




Here’s my outrageous forecast: The demand is so high, they will have to completely reverse course and begin supporting construction and development and enabling purchases. Otherwise, as the election nears, they’re gone.

They’ll look like hypocrites, but the public will forgive because housing is a bigger issue that’s causing serious social troubles. As investors focus on rental properties, such as apartments in Toronto, even rents will skyrocket in Toronto. Toronto property management firms are headed for their own boomtimes.



As spring approaches, we’re going to see intense price pressure driven by a lack of supply. Royal Lepage just released its market forecast survey and they’re predicting Toronto houses prices will rise 6.8%.  That aligns nicely with this whole notion of boom times ahead.

And it turns out, construction is already booming.  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that the pace of housing starts picked up in November nearing the highest levels since 2008. Given that we just went through a boom, that’s remarkable.  CMHC believes construction of multiple-unit projects in Toronto has been a driving force behind the trend.

Benjamin Tal is also suggesting a boom in Toronto and Vancouver and it would restart in 2018. You can read more below.  Should you buy now or in the spring?  Take a good look at the Toronto real estate forecast and the further reading below.

Breaking News: Trudeau to bring in one million new immigrants in next 3 years. Question: where will they live?

Despite government negativity, statistics, the underlying fundamentals of demand along with the ongoing strength of the economy are suggesting an improvement.  That means a prison riot might be coming soon. You’ll find a list of credible reasons why the Canadian housing markets might surge again below.




The experts have been forecasting a Toronto or Vancouver crash now for many years. Hasn’t happened, so perhaps we need to think for ourselves? The market continues with confidence and optimism overpowering persistent negativity the politicians keep pushing out.

How is the US housing market doing? Nervous but very good. Post hurricanes and fires and political upheaval, the markets in Miami, Boston, New York, Houston and Los Angeles are healthy. And 2018 stock market predictions are positive for several years.

Let’s take a look at the factors and the two opponents: our politicians vs strong growing economies. Only one will win.




Let the Housing Good Times Roll!

The IMF and OECD seem to agree, saying Canada’s economy is the best looking in the G20. The case for a Canadian housing boom has some wind in its sails. If political suppression of the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets were to end, the rest of Canada would awaken.

What we don’t know is whether the government will attack  the momentum or let it power the economy further. Currently they’re riding a wave of populism driven by angry renters in Vancouver and Toronto.

But what if that voice faded and the exact opposite public opinion appeared? Justin Trudeau’s popularity has dropped to 25%, Wynne’s pushing towards zero, and that means they may have to reverse course to stay in office. Don’t believe they would do it? Never say never.

Politicians Crushing the Housing Market

Currently however, Wynne, Trudeau and Horgan are holding their own private “let the good times roll” party. Their unwise meddling in the housing market is a threat to the Canadian, BC, and Ontario economies as explained below.

And it’s all for political points that may soon be worth nothing because when you cater to a small select crowd, eventually everyone else wants you out. In truth, only the prices of million dollar estates have dropped a little and the rest of Canada is hurting.

Demand for housing is relentless and Millennials don’t want their dreams dashed. The larger voice will be heard in 2018.




People want homes and these 3 politicans will be booted out of office because of it.  The only ones voting for them are those in Toronto and Vancouver cities. The rest of the country wants to see lower mortgage rates and an improved economy.

A good number of Canadians are weighed down by thoughts of the last recession rollercoaster and don’t really want to go back there. Business people and investors want growth. They’ve got a lot on the line.

And the politicians they’ve discouraged the builders now. So, although everything is in place for a continued housing boom in Canada, these politicians could push us into a mess.



“At this point we do not see any real relief. In fact, the opposite is the case,” writes Tal. “Without significant changes to land and rental policies alongside a dramatic change to housing preference among buyers, those centers will become even less affordable.” – Benjamin Tal in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

Key Factors Supporting a Housing Boom in Canada

  1. global economic winds are positive
  2. Trump will rekindle trade with Canada (he has to)
  3. oil prices rising a little
  4. wages will begin to rise
  5. too many millennials need to move out of the parent’s places
  6. bank of mom and dad has plenty of funds ready
  7. supply is low and builders and construction workers are waiting to build again
  8. the rest of Canada is tried of being kicked around
  9. Trudeau and Wynne severely disliked
  10. China is liberalizing trade and investment with the world
  11. Canada’s economy is going gangbusters (3.6% growth forecasts)
  12. lumber producers would rather sell their lumber here
  13. mortgage rates still low (and there’s no real reason to raise them)

Video: Greg Bonnell of BNN Explains How Housing Prices Can’t Go Down

Strong Economy Usually Means Boom Times

Benjamin Tal may have meant a price boom is imminent because of severe shortages in the Vancouver housing market and the Toronto housing market.  And if prices rise, we may see construction starts also slowly rise and a juiced up housing market would in turn lift the Canadian economy higher.

A synchronized global recovery and rising global trade volumes are backstopping the growth, along with the bottoming out of the oil shock in western Canada and soaring home prices in Toronto and Vancouver — from a report in the Toronto Star.

And prices of oil have climbed, meaning Calgary’s real estate market and those in Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina might return as well. Fears are that OPEC is solidifying and a war between the 2 biggest producers could erupt. That would bring an immediate boom to Calgary.

Screencapture courtesy of BNN

This is a screenshot below is of historic oil consumption from Doug Rowatt’s post on the greaterfool.ca. The price is forever upward.  Is the time time oil shoots toward $100 a barrel? Some are predicting it.

Forecasters like Oil: “Open interest in $100 call options for December 2018 has tripled in one week to exceed 30,000 lots, according to Reuters.   The $100 December 2018 options is the largest strike for all of 2018.” — from USA today report.

Condo starts have been strong and look to continue. The Toronto condo market and Vancouver condo market will be driven by property investors according to reports.

BNN’s Greg Bonnell Interviews Bryan Yu, Senior Economist at Central 1 Credit Union regarding Vancouver’s perpetual positive market in a past interview. What stands out about the conversation is that Yu says affordability won’t affect prices, and that only an external factor, such as a Chinese implosion would create a Vancouver slowdown. At this point, with Trump’s visit to China, that the Chinese are adapting to global business and are welcoming foreign investment. No reason for a China problem. Vancouver looks great.

What makes Toronto’s condos an attractive long-term bet is the city’s low vacancy rate, which has fueled bidding wars among renters and driven monthly condo rents to an average of $2,074 in the second quarter, up 7.2 per cent from $1,935 a year ago, according to market research firm Urbanation. — from a report by Bnn.ca.




Severe shortages are likely to drive home prices high. Most forecasts and expert predictions are for a flat market for 2018. Yet the economy is strong and looks to get stronger so a flat market is really about sales volume. Prices are so high no can afford to buy houses in Vancouver or Toronto and soon for condos.

It’s Still a Seller’s Market

It’s a seller’s market in 2017 and 2018, and with rent controls suppressing new construction, the pressure will build to create higher prices of resale homes and condos. As wild as Benjamin Tal’s prediction is, it jives with what’s going on in the economy.

Douglas Porter believes the market will heat up too, but his view is that it will end with a housing market crash.

If NAFTA talks go well, which they likely will, the North American and global economies will both grow. That doesn’t fit with some bankers and politicians wishful prognosis of stagnant or reduced prices in 2018/2019.

The latest numbers from Novembers mid month report by ZooCasa shows a surge of listings this month.  This rapid rise in listings in houses and townhouses tells us sellers might be too desperate, overestimating the effect of mortgage stress test changes, and clearly not of the view that the market will climb in spring.

In TREB’s monthly price charts, prices in the core districts of Toronto haven’t fallen. The demand for homes within commuting distance of jobs is high and buyers will likely pay any price. Home prices in the 905 area code have fallen (York Region, Mississauga), but perhaps that’s ready to heat up in 2018. There are still bidding wars and lots of over asking sales happening.

Let’s not forget that many renters and some homeowners will have to leave their current homes, and they will be exposed to a zero vacancy market you normally associate with New York City or San Francisco.



Does This Fall Season Foretell of 2018?

The fall season has been strong, and while the new mortgage rules will suppress demand for more expensive homes, and condos, those under $600,000 will be high demand. That will push prices up. So although some homeowners are pannicking and dumping their houses on the market, demand in 2018 will gobble them all up. Let’s not be distracted by the $3+ million dollar homes in Forest Hill and Mount Pleasant.

The Toronto condo market is sizzling hot and they’re running out of condos.

It’s a simple matter of supply versus demand in Toronto and Vancouver. The only solution is to end anti-development legislation. Vancouver and Toronto have been designated high growth super cities with large numbers of immigrants with visas and foreign students arriving every month. How can that be stopped now?




Government Manipulation Could Create an Economic Slide

If Trudeau and Wynne try to counter rising prices and demand for homes brought on by demographic and economic factors, via policy changes, it may create a bubble and then housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver, cascading right across the country.

In fact, it’s likely that they’ll both be run over be the economic train neither had any part in creating. For Trudeau, it is hypocritical to recruit a million new immigrants and then not help withh the housing crisis.  I think he’ll come around because of this. However, it still leaves the BC and Ontario premiers left blockading the housing highway.

For those who don’t want to live in these modern mega cities, there are other areas of Canada to live. The north is undeveloped, but as more babyboomers tire of the congestion of the city, they’ll be looking for homes, at least for 6 months of the year, in Canada. They may have to go north to find one, if anyone’s building up there.

And they won’t find much relief in Muskoka, Niagara Falls, Kelowna, or Victoria. Prices are up in most retirement cities and they’re rising in Costa Rica, Mexico, Florida and Arizona. Too many people bidding on too few properties. Simple math that seems to befuddle politicians.

Before buying a home or investing in rental income property, get some advice on maximizing your investment. The path you take might be surprising. Expand your search for homes for sale with an intelligent strategy that does more than calling a Realtor.




Before you sell, consider advanced selling tactics that can capture the full interest in your home. The demand for your home or condo is out there in the real marketplace. They just aren’t aware of your property. Marketing is worth many times what you pay for it. Consider the exposure of your property on Google, Google adwords, Facebook ads, in addition to your MLS listing. Don’t be timid. Power it up!

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Toronto Housing Market Crash Getting Closer?

When Will Toronto’s Real Estate Market Crash?

The experts have been calling for a Toronto Housing Crash for several years now, but it never happened. But is time finally running out?

What happens before a Housing Crash? This is the question more people are asking.  If Toronto’s economy is strong, could a crash possibly occur? Do we need to know the factors? If housing does crash, that doesn’t mean the economy would crash would it?

Canada is now a real estate nation, with little else to keep the economy from sinking into an even deeper funk — in the Globe and Mail.

Every month in 2017, brings a new context with new threats. And when prices are this high, perhaps down is the only direction? Some writers in the media including Gordon Pape the finance guru, and Douglas Porter of BMO are hinting about a housing crash.

What are the current issues people are discussing?

  • first time buyers – are they over-leveraged, seriously in debt and able to pay higher mortgage payments?
  • are homeowners exposed to higher mortgage rates?
  • is the renegotiation of NAFTA going to create a wave of mortgage defaults and business failures?
  • fast rise of home prices – going vertical on charts can’t continue
  • what are speculators and the media saying about the market?
  • will Chinese buyers disappear from the market?

In the first 2 months of 2017 have prices in Toronto have been rocketing. March to June, prices will launch into the stratosphere.

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, active listings in the GTA were down by 50.5 per cent in February compared with the same period last year.  “Inventory hasn’t been this low in 15 years.” from a news post in the Globe and Mail.

Chart courtesy of Trebhome.com

What Causes a Real Estate Bubble and Housing Market Crash?

A Real Estate bubble happens when prices become inflated well beyond their apparent or historical value. Reality may be ready to snap them back to normal. The excessively high prices mean some buyers are likely over leveraged or in financial risk. If the market plummets they will be holding an “underwater mortgage” where they owe much more than the home is worth. They could decide to abandon the home as was evident in past recessions.

There are so many housing crash indicators to consider that even experts and mortgage corporation CEOs can’t provide a very good forecast. And past crashes may not give us any clues. But one insidious factor might be most telling even more than prices — that the economy can’t support it and wage performance in Toronto isn’t good — homeowners really are overleveraged. CMHC has sounded the warning, doing what they can to stop first time buyers from being future victims. Homeowner’s financial position is likely worsening and they’re increasingly in danger of default.

I’m not a qualified housing market economist but who is? You can read forecasts from 4 years ago from the experts who got demand wrong, bubble forecasts wrong, and made other embarassing statements such as “Toronto’s condo glut.” It’s a lot of guesswork. If you’re well to do, the price crash might not mean much, but a housing crash could bring the Ontario economy and indebted Ontario government crashing down. That’s when all hell breaks loose.


Save Money on Auto Insurance in Toronto

It’s almost certain that your auto premiums are high.  Shop around and a low Toronto car insurance quote online.  Some postal codes and neighborhoods are subject to higher premiums. I hop you’re not going to go alone with that? You work hard for you money, so finding lower car insurance rates is a sign of self-respect. Let’s get shopping for the lowest auto insurance in Toronto.

When Will the Housing Crash Happen?

A housing crash occurs when housing prices plummet, due to economic failure, or to a wave of sellers who dump their properties onto the market in desperation to sell them. As in 2007 in the US, if defaults occur, it could bring down the market including mortgage lenders, sending it spiralling downward for years. The US housing crash brought the whole economy down and the damage spread internationally due to economic integration and capital flight.

Canadians, including Torontonians are deep in personal debt and first time buyers may have big student loan debt. Wealthy people would be quick to sell to protect their own fortunes. Once the fuse is lit, we can expect terrible consequences.

What do The Home Builders Think of the Toronto Market?

Are builders jumping into the Toronto market with both feet? That’s a good sign of market direction, because new home development builders have a lot on the line if the Toronto economy should tank. They’d be exposed for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Yet if you look up in Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora and especially Bradford West Gwillimbury, you’d see massive developments going full steam ahead. In East Gwillimbury, one development just north of Green Lane in Sharon, will have 9000 new homes. Builders seem pretty confident they’re going to sell them all. And generally, they’re sold quick and at very high prices. Chinese buyers are still supporting the market however, buyers from the Toronto area are keenly interested in York Region.

Selling Your Home in 2017

I’m getting more frequent inquiries from Toronto area home buyers and I expect that to grow. They can sense the possibility of the Toronto housing bubble bursting, and that now is the right time to sell their Toronto or Mississauga home and make the migration north. It is a wise time to sell your home anywhere in the Toronto region and settle into something cheaper. We will never see the winfall homeowners are getting now from selling, again in our lifetime.

If you are ready to sell, why not contact me to help you get the best price for your Toronto or Mississauga home? You’ll get an experienced and helpful Realtor to get it sold fast, but for a fanastic price. You won’t be even thinking about their commission.

When the next recession happens, all those who didn’t sell will look back with regrets. The opportunity to benefit by hundreds of thousands of dollars is no laughing matter. You can sell now and move to Costa Rica, Palm Beach Florida, Kelowna BC, Arizona, or Belize and live a wondrously happy existence.

The Kids Will Be Happy and So Will You

Some don’t sell their house because they don’t want to uproot their kids. But kids are resilient, and 100s of thousands of dollars buys a lot of health, high quality education and other youth development benefits. Think how nice that could be?

It may take another year or two before the bubble bursts, buy why wait? You have the big winfall now. If you’re a babyboomer, did you work hard all those years to sit in a house that needs constant repair? Come on, you deserve better than that.

Contact me and I’ll help you get launched on the whole process and get you moving onto a better life. My Realtor associates in your town will do a market valuation and then help you optimize your property for sale. This is an exciting time for you, your spouse and family. Suddenly, you have options you never dreamed of. Be happy and let’s get started!  — Gord

When should I Sell My House? | RETS IDX | Zillow Home Search | First Time Home Buyers | Canadian Home Buyers Guide

The US Massive Debt with China and the $20 Trillion Nightmare

OMG: US Debt with China: $1 Trillion + $360 Billion Per Year Active Trade Deficit!

You don’t hear much about the massive US Trade deficit on the major TV networks.  NBC, CNN, CBS, or ABC rarely mention the insidious debt with China and Mexico.  You’d think that a number like $20 Trillion (estimated shortly), $61 Trillion Total Sovereign debt, and a $1 Billion per day deficit would be CNN’s headliner every single day.

It’s unlikely the swamp people will want to help – Pic courtesy of Salt Lake Tribune

Instead, CNN and the rest spend all day attacking Donald Trump.  But then, Trump did say he was going to drain the swamp (including judges).

Unfortunately, Trump is launching another debt-driven campaign which may overheat the economy and grow the debt at more than $1 Trillion per year. Since it’s going into infrastructure spending with private participation, it’s not as toxic as Obama’s debt.  However, Trump did say he wanted all shelves filled with nuclear bombs which is pretty much insanity.




As a result, he’s paying the price in the media for doing good deeds. Let’s hope he gets these things done before he’s impeached for conflict of interest. Because the US is in big debt trouble and Trump is the only one with a solution. And how ironic it would be if the US becomes seriously indebted to Mexico!

Yet, it’s a taboo topic lurking in the dark. But when interest rates rise, this villian will walk through the curtains and into the limelight.  Are China and Mexico taking advantage of the US?  The huge debt won’t go away. Rising interest rates to pay the interest on the debt could get out of control. That could impact the housing market and whether people buy homes.

There’s no bubble / crash in foreseeable future, especially with Trump beginning to take control, and as we see investment funds arrive back in the US. The stock market is at a record pace.  Families and individuals need homes. Perhaps what’s at stake is who will be the landlord and who will be the renter. There’s big money in rental property investment and the Chinese have been buying. However, due to Trump’s actions, the Yuan will plummet and Chinese investment will soon be a thing of the past.




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Forecasting the Economy:  Where Should you Work, Invest and Live in the Next 10 Years?

So why don’t we look at the debt’s source, the numbers, the process, and consider what will happen if Donald Trump does manage to improve the situation.

You’ll find some eye-opening data, infographics, links and commentary in this post. Make sure everyone knows! It’s your civil duty. This post will be constantly updated so please bookmark it and share with your contacts.




Ultra wealthy Chinese. Photo courtesy of Ozy.com

And although Americans assume everything is good right now with “full employment” there’s a big “debt catch” with Obama’s legacy. With $500 Billion overall deficit in 2016 and almost $20 Trillion overall, the spirit, vitality, hope and wealth of the US is persistently eroded. The reason for the media silence is denial, and the so-called economic expert’s inability to make an emotional impact with Americans.  There is no coincidence that the deficit has coincided with America’s slide into despair the last 20 years.

The US National Trade Deficit with China was $4 Trillion since 2000 — and a Growth Rate of 300% in the last few years

“Our nation stands at the crossroads of liberty. Crushing national debt, rampant illegal immigration, insane business regulations and staggering national unemployment are pushing our nation into unchartered territory.”  — James Lankford from Brainy Quote.

US Trade Deficits with The World

Graphic Courtesy of PBS.org

6 of 20 Trillion Dollar Debt is Owned by Foreigners

Some suggest China may even threaten or blackmail the US over trade sanctions by calling in that debt. Doubtful, but how was this debt situation allowed by the US government?

 

Please Share this Post with others. Everyone around the world should know about the US national debt and deficit. This is something no 4 year job recovery can eliminate.




I think it really scares us that we’re staring at $20 trillion in debt, not knowing how our grandchildren will repay it,” says Bob Kuck, a retiree living in a gated community in Sarasota, Florida  — from CNN’s report: Is anyone worried about America’s $19 trillion debt? by Heather Long.

Of all the threats that America faces, it’s the quietest one that could bring the country down. Some may wonder if it’s too late for the US government to do anything about. And before Trump became President, he recognized how miserable the prospect of dealing with this gigantic national debtload is, grow the housing and investment outlook, and bring back good paying jobs. But he took the challenge anyway. It’s either heroic or suicidal.

Millennials and Gen Z’s Will be Paying the Bill

Tens of millions of millennial students having already been wrung through the US college educational system. They spent 4 to 7 years for an expensive education they’ll barely use along with a a whopping $1 Trillion in government backed student loans.  They will be paying for all of it and Gen Z’s will be joining them. But don’t worry, Trump’s got a plan for you.

The purpose of the education system has been to create great jobs for teachers, not for educational efficiency and productivity.

As Trump brings jobs back, the question is whether these stressed out, indebted, wrongly educated workers can step up to the plate. I think we’re all optimistic the kids will bale us out. And what Americans can’t do, you can easily immigrate to fill. Make America Great will be the slogan of Millennials shortly, but they’ll never forget all the debt.




$360 Billion per Year! $1 Billion per Day

The US National Debt with China alone has now grown to $360 Billion per year. In a 6 year span, that is $1.6 Trillion, $4 Trillion since 2000. Just to pay the interest on that debt is a sizable chunk of US GDP.

Donald Trump says he’ll tackle it, but the last time I saw a mouse attack a Lion, the outcome was not favorable for the mouse. The picture the media presents of China is still one of impoverished yet diligent and deserving workers glad to have a job. But China’s not like that anymore. China is rich.

China’s robot factories are growing fast which has raised concerns about millions of layoffs of Chinese workers. Only a smaller number of engineers and technicians might be needed. Now they may have unemployed robots as well.

Chinese workers assisting robots. Photo courtesy of hangthebankers.com

Why Is the US National Debt so High?

The persistent trade deficits are a big reason. Obama/Clinton never talked about it, in fact, Obama spent $8 Trillion in the terrorist aftermath. A good portion of that handout was never traced. They don’t even know where that money went. The debt to China directly is now over $1 Trillion. Now China is able to buy up property and companies here like it’s a fire sale.

Another reason for the debt is Free Trade. While free trade was a theoretically good idea 20 years ago when I was studying International Business and Trade in college, it’s no longer so. Today, it’s a losing business concept for the US.

The fact US investment dollars are going to former third world countries to benefit their economies and creating jobs for them instead of in the US is bad enough. Further, these countries (China, Mexico) manipulate their currencies to keep an ongoing and artificial trade advantage. As Trump suggests, they play the currency markets like Candice Swanepoel plays the fiddle. China isn’t so genius at it though. They just demanded it.

I have to say that I’m saddened that Richard Branson invited Barack Obama to Necker island, and that he’s also asked the UK government to reconsider leaving the EU.  The UK has it’s own massive deficit, which deserves its own blog post. This picture tells it all. The UK had to leave the EU. Brexit was a survival decision not a new vision for the UK.

Game of Monopoly: China Won. Let’s Start Over Again

Graphic courtesy of Wikipedia

When free trade theory was idealized and touted strongly decades ago, they didn’t consider the effect of currency manipulation and the ongoing human rot that occurs with overspecialization. And they wouldn’t admit to where it would lead.




The game of monopoly is the same. Inevitably, one player claims everything. In the real world, countries make excuses for cheating and not being fair.  Worse, countries can specialize themselves out of existance. When countries have no options left, amidst cheating, it can lead to wars.

Choose Your Economic Theories Well

The economic theories of specialization and economies of scale works wonderfully, until the rising countries have all the investment money and a continuous way of beating the falling countries. If the free trade situation persists, countries like the US and the UK will continue to collapse. They collapse because their overspecialized workforce/businesses get caught in trade and technology circumstances, the same way an unemployed worker in Ohio or Michigan finds themselves suddently without a job through no fault of their own and their home is valued as worthless.

When countries grab up a monopoly on technology, distribution, investment flows, jobs, skills, education, etc., it’s unfair. Right now, Americans have limited job opportunities. And should an American want to be an engineer, or other high tech workers, they may have to move to Mexico or China.

Each country should have a well rounded economy for true economic health and prosperity

Some like the Democrats, want this situation to continue forever. The fact is, the skilled, sustainable, good paying jobs must return to the US, if only to pay the national debt.

Further Reading:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2016/03/28/u-s-debt-is-heading-toward-20-trillion-where-its-been-where-its-going-and-why/

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-americas-debt-bomb-wont-explode-yet-12963

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-college/articles/2017-01-31/3-student-loan-reforms-to-expect-under-trump

What are your thoughts on the jobs outlook for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020? Is free trade about to transition to fair trade?  Will the housing sector survive the fight with the deficit or is a housing crash inevitable? Is buying gold a good hedge strategy?

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