Los Angeles Housing Market

Housing Forecast for Los Angeles 2018 to 2020

The real estate/housing market in Los Angeles enjoyed good growth during 2017. And predictions are for higher prices and good conditions for sellers.

However, the stats for January 2018 were a little sobering. According to curbed LA,  only 4,847 homes were sold in LA County. That’s an alarming drop from 6,613 in December and much less at 5,188 sales in January of 2017.

Prices grew $41k this spring of 2018. Predictions are for continuing high prices due to ongoing shortages.

The wild fires had an effect, in LA County and hitting regions such as Sonoma and Napa valley regions hardest. The insurance driven recovery should revive the housing market in LA.

The losses were estimated at nearly $10 billion with a $500 billion hit to the economy. The numbers are similar to the floods experienced in Houston TX or Miami FL .  Some homeowners are discovering they weren’t covered sufficiently with their home insurance.



The California Association of Realtors Outlook

CAR reported that:

  • single-family home sales fell 7.6% in January down to 388,800 and down 2.9% from January 2017.
  • January’s statewide median home price was $527,800, down 4.0% yet still 7.3% higher than January 2017.
  • entry level homes in California rose to $220,000 in California, up more than 10 percent from 2017 when entry-level home averaged $200,000.
  • the DOM for a single-family home remained low at 27 days in January, compared with 36 days in January 2017.

The California Department of Insurance said the fires cost $9.0 billion in insurance claims so far, which was 3 times the $3 billion claimed previously.  For the next few months however, California housing will be in extra short supply.



Fires might actually be an unfortunate distraction from the housing crisis that’s existed for many years now in Los Angeles and across the whole state of California. The state just can’t seem to get a handle on the need for more homes.

The OC Register reports that CEQA lawsuits against developments are a serious issue for housing, especially in the LA area. As Los Angeles residents suffer financially, and while housing crash rumors float around, prices are rising.  You’ll need an income of $120,000 to buy a home in LA in 2018.

Prices of condos in downtown LA are reportedly $90,000 higher than last year.

Insurance Companies Fielding Claims from Homeowners

Is it instinct or just common sense that California will continue as the most desired place to live on the planet? Does the climate in San Diego, Sacramento , Bay Area, and Los Angeles along with the high paying jobs, interesting geography, lifestyle and recreation, California is a magnet for people around the world.




Infographic Courtesy of CAR.org – LA Buyer Profile

In 2017, real estate sales in 2017 in California eased however house prices remain high in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, and San Francisco / Bay Area housing markets which had previously approached prerecession highs. But will they rise further and is this the right time to invest in an income property?

The short answer is Yes. Houses for sale in Los Angeles County and Orange County are in short supply and new residential development is not keeping pace. It would take a market crash to stop the price rise and even then it would only be for a few years. For wealthy investors, a few years is well worth the wait. The question is where to get a realistic price? The hunt continues.



Santa Monica House Prices

Average House for Sale Still Sells

CAR reports the average house price in LA rose about 10% in late summer of 2017. San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange County had strong price growth of 8% to 10%.   Contrast that with the drop in the Bay Area of more of about 3% or $14k to $33k for detached homes and you realize LA is a more attractive housing market for property investors.

The effect of the fires will be to reduce availability and raise prices. So not much relief in site for the LA market. As in most housing markets across the US, millennials have been shut out of the markets. They’re in their child bearing years and have saved up small fortunes to ready them to finally purchase. They’ll be buying in LA or Orange County somewhere.

Sales volume actually increased 11.5% in the last month, so homeowners appear to be loosening up finally.  Realtors are wondering how they can get people to sell their homes. Inventory is the big story for the fall of 2017.

This graphic from CAR.org’s latest report shows inventory in California is sharply down from last year. Sales above $500k were up up. Active listings in the lower price ranges are down considerably ( -10% to -28%).

Screen capture courtesy of CAR.org

And buyers
real estate investors are hopeful they can find the right property in the right city or zip code. Zillow has forecast house prices in Los Angeles to rise throughout 2018 while CAR shows it moderating. A lot depends on the political climate and interest rates.

Screen Capture courtesy of Trulia

We should keep in mind that only 30% of Californians own a home so the door is wide open for opportunity and new sales, particularly with first time buyers.  The problem is that homeowners don’t want to sell and buyers can’t afford the prices.

Why are Buyers Buying in California?

CAR’s 2016 survey showed only a small portion of buyers buy property as an investment. Only 13% are real estate investors.

California Home Buyer Survey Buyer Survey – Screen Capture courtesy of CAR.org

The US economy will pick up steam and Californians will be buying a home again even if they have 1 hour+ commutes, higher interest rates, and out migration to remote towns.

Check out the top housing factors below affecting housing prices in discover a better homes for sale search process.




The Telling Stats about LA’s Forecast

If buyer’s are hoping for bargains in the next 4 years, they’re unlikely to find them. Despite a dip in September, prices for homes and condos are up $24k to $30k from one year ago. Are the Asian and Persian buyers pulling out of LA?  The Trump instability and trade issue might be a pause before even more money pours into the reviving American economy.  Make American Great Again, also creates excellent investment opportunities in California, paying out in $US.

  • jobs being repatriated back to the US from Mexico and China
  • employment already good and rising
  • the end of Obamacare?
  • the end of Dodd-Frank restrictions on lending
  • general Federal easing of real estate development expected
  • it will take some time for mortgage rates to rise
  • still isn’t enough housing to house LA’s growing population (recession)




It’s the Los Angeles housing forecast that is perhaps one of the most interesting forecasts for the US for the next few years. California’s housing developers are hard pressed to build homes to house the population. We can speculate that homes will rise in price for the next 4 years. It’s not easy to predict though when people are talking real estate bubbles, NAFTA cancellations, Brexit, skyrocketing prices, vacillating oil prices, reduced immigration, and presidential elections.  




malibusmall
Malibu Coastal. Photo courtesy of marisolmalibu.com

Overall, the Los Angeles forecast was very good for sellers with plenty of demand and with the average price of a home hitting $690,000 last summer. Affordability is dropping though and only 30% of LA county residents own a home. 

Given the nasty commutes Los Angeles workers are enduring, this housing crisis should be a top priority for the California state governor.

A few pundits are suggesting homeowners need to build granny flats in everyone’s back yard.  Political battles are forming over the effect of regulations on LA’s and California’s home construction. Who will win? Will they battle Trump head to head to stop new development?

The situation may become worse than what San Francisco, Vancouver, and Toronto have been through, and what Miami, New York, and Boston may be into now.


Save your Money on Auto Insurance Quotes in LA

Are you paying too much for car insurance in Los Angeles? Some zip codes and neighborhoods are subject to higher premiums. Are you okay with that? How about finding lower car insurance rates and making it a habit of shopping for auto insurance every year? 2017 is a good year to save:)

Here’s the Hottest Zip Codes in Los Angeles

LA Curbed’s list of hot zip codes: Los Angeles’s 90012 zip code is shaping up to be the 2nd fastest growing area in the nation at 8.8% growth, 2nd behind only Gilbert AZ. The 90012 zip code includes Chinatown, the Civic Center, Elysian Park, Victor Heights, parts of the Arts District and Bunker Hill, and most of Little Tokyo.

Here’s the LA Times hot zip code list:

Santa Monica 90402 – Average home price: $3,237,500

Hermosa Beach 9025 – Average home price: $1,693,500

Lincoln Heights/Montecito 90031 – Average home price $458,500 +14.6%

City Terrace  90063 – Average home price: $320,000 +18.5%

Marina Del Rey 90292 – Average home price: $2,157,500 +23%

Manhattan Beach 90266 – Average home price: $2,100,000 +10%

Compton – 90220 – Average home price: $285,000 +9.8%

Playa Del Rey 90293 – Average home price: $1,517,500 +26.5%

Toluca Lake Studio City  91602 – Average home price: $1,022,500

Read more on the best zip codes in the US for investors and homebuyers.

LA Home Prices Fully Recovered?

The Los Angeles home price graph below courtesy of Zillow shows how prices have almost returned to pre-recession values and are beginning to level off. To forecast prices and demand for the LA region, we’d have to examine the cause of the moderation and if it’s a fact. Here’s LA’s hottest zip codes.

 

Last year, home prices in LA rose 7.8%. That’s a fairly strong ascent to just snap out of, so we’re left wondering what really is the outlook is for the 2017 to 2020 period? With prices high and rising, it makes sense that the number of buyers will dwindle (preferring to rent) and a leveling off would occur. It seems however, this is more of a guess by forecasters not really backed up by a solid consideration of all the factors that will be in play during the next 4 years – defeated regulations, growing economy, and reduced immigration.

Homes for Sale in Los Angeles: Prices, Trends from Zillow

Try the Zillow Home Search Widget to learn more about LA Homes for Sale. Realtors, click here to hear more about the Zillow leads program:

 

Home Sales Volume Chart: Los Angeles

la-home-sales-firsttues

Is there a Housing Bubble Market?

harvardHere’s the thing. According to a Harvard real estate guru, bubbles don’t burst until demand dries up — an increase in unsold inventory.

Do you honestly think there will be no demand for coastal California property, especially Los Angeles county or Orange county?  As you’ll see from the data in this post below, there is huge demand for property. Supply is the problem.

Factors Affecting House prices and Availability in LA

  1. Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases
  2. Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed
  3. Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening
  4. Down Payment and mortgage rules – Banks are withdrawing FHA loans however some are offering downpayments as low as 3%
  5. Regional Employment – Very low and remaining low
  6. Buyer Income – low and not rising much
  7. Home Prices – High and rising – out of reach for many buyers – many consider LA homes grossly over-priced
  8. Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and LA millennials have had the lowest rate of home buying (pent up demand)
  9. Number of Renters – increasing fast
  10. New Home Construction: slow (100k to 140k per year)
  11. Economic-Foreign Trade – Trump expected to reduce US deficit
  12. Election Year – Voters uncertain of what Trump will create
  13. Taxes on Sale of Home – Tax situation is great for sellers




Historical Data

This intriguing graphic courtesy of https://journal.firsttuesday.us/ reveals that home sales in Los Angeles is actually well down from historical levels. The likely reason for that is lower income buyers simply have even less income to buy and of course the high prices. Home ownership is lowest in California.

la-case-schiller-index

A complete recovery of around 110,000 annual home sales will likely occur in 2019-2020, as end user demand in Los Angeles County is buttressed by a Great Confluence of Baby Boomers (Boomers) and first-time buyers who are lured by further employment (needed to accommodate population growth of roughly 1% annually since the beginning of the Great Recession).

That’s a forecast growth of about 20,000 homes per year over current current 2016 levels.

Another interesting stat provided by firsttuesday is the very low rate of home ownership and how much it’s plummeted. It’s on the uprise now, and you’re left wondering whether Trump’s renewed emphasis of America First will encourage the growth of home ownership?

la-homeownership

LA Economic Forecast – Very Rosy

la-economic-forecastThe forecast for economic growth for the Los Angeles is optimistic at this point. Visit https://laedc.org/2015/09/30/new-2016-2020-economic-forecast-published-93015/ for the most recent info and their forecast up to 2020.

 

This Stat from CAR shows homes have been on a rollercoaster ride of sorts yet, 2016’s expected resale volume is still well down from 2011 and 2012’s highs. If incomes should rise in the LA area, it could have the effect of stimulating new housing construction and increase sales of homes. With the number renters skyrocketing, there’s a huge pool of potential buyers.

Home reSales Forecasts 2016f

la-housing-stats

This graphic reveals the exceptionally high cost of renting in Los Angeles compared with other major centers. The housing availability problem isn’t isolated to California or LA, it’s a US wide issue. The high housing costs in the coastal California areas however may prevent many skilled workers from migrating to LA to work. Startups for instance may be forced to leave San Francisco, Bay Area and LA because of the cost. San Diego County may be a better option for the short term.

la-rentals

This is a short term forecast from LA realtor James Campbell, who believes prices will drop?!

What can we conclude from the above data? That LA’s market for realtors is very promising, yet just as it is in San Francisco, Toronto and Vancouver, finding sellers and convincing them to sell will be a key challenge.  Digital marketing efforts could be vital to any realtor hoping to maximize demand and achieve highest price for their clients. Is this the right year to buy rental income property?  Find out which are the best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Check out other posts providing realtor tips, prospecting strategies, social media strategy, and tactics used by top flight luxury realtors and even lead generation companies.




Related posts: Housing Market 2018 | Florida Real EstateBlockchain Real EstateSan Francisco Housing ForecastLos Angeles Housing Market | Sacramento Housing Market | San Diego Housing Market | Real Estate Agents | Blockchain Real Estate | Toronto Real Estate SEO | Vancouver Condos | Toronto Condos | Vancouver Housing Forecast | Affordable LeadsRealtor Branding | Realtor Branding |  Realtor Growth Hacks | Realtor Skills | Realtors Benefits | Home SearchHousing Crash  | Stock Forecast | Foreign Exchange Rate Forecast | USD CAD Exchange Rate Predictions |  Oil Prices | Mortgage Refinance Rates 

Gord Collins —  I generate leads for realtors in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Sausalito, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Fresno, NAPA, Tiburon, Oakland, Palo Alto, Anaheim, Beverly Hills,, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento, Encinitas, Orange County, LA County, Riverside, Malibu, Santa Barbara, San Bernardino, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita,  Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Chula Vista, Escondido, and Santa Monica, Venice Beach, and La Jolla. See additional housing market reports on New York NYC, San Diego CA, and San Francisco CA.

New York Real Estate Market Forecast ⌂ Forecast 2018 Queens Bronx Manhattan Long Island Brooklyn

New York Real Estate Predictions 2018

There’s no shortage of doom and gloom talk about a US housing crash that would take NYC down with it. In fact the recent reports of high foreclosure rates in Queens, Bronx and Staten Island are a little alarming.

The 3rd quarter market performance was less than stellar, the worst in many years.

Yet the Trump tax bill may just rectify the foreclosure carnage even as it slowed sales and lowered property prices as investors and buyers waited it out. The wait might be over now.

Overall home prices rose above $1,000,000 and condo prices fell 11% to an average of $2,689,147. It’s the high end properties that got hit hardest. At the lower end, NYC has a full blown housing shortage.

With income averaging about $60,000 per year in New York City, it’s difficult for many to buy homes averaging $680,000.  It’s estimated that to buy a home in NYC, you need an income of $100,000. New York State’s economy was a sluggish underperformer in 2016, however in the last 12 months NYC has gained 68,000 jobs. In November alone, NY State grew 26,000 new jobs.




The US economy persistently grows and improves despite the terrible debt and trade deficits left by the Obama administration. The Trump Administration new Tax bill are being viewed as positive and have quietened talks of housing market and stock market crashes.

Bar any issues with trade relations, and President Trump’s recent visit to China is a good start, all should go nicely with the US housing scene and help New York recover further. It could be said that NY’s inability to create new housing has made it too expensive to live their. That scares away business and makes buyers suspicious of a NY housing crash.

This chart below from the Case Shiller Home price index shows NYC’s real estate is stable and optimistic.




NYSAR New York Real Estate Update December

Here’s the latest New York housing stats published by NYSAR, shows the typical US housing data, that supply of affordable homes has dropped 1%, sales are down 2.5%, and average prices are up 7% from last year.
 Screen Capture courtesy of NYSAR

You could say that just like the San Francisco market and  Los Angeles market, and all major city markets acorss North America, the New York housing market is under pressure.  The NYC forecast is for more of the same, but at least, the market here isn’t like it is in Seattle, the Bay Area, or Los Angeles county.

It’s pretty far fetched that New York’s real estate performance could deviate too much from the US national forecast. A crash isn’t favored by the stats.

Is 2018 the right year to invest in rental income property?  Contrast the stock market to investing in real estate.


Auto Insurance New York

Looking for a lower quote on New York  Car Insurance. Find out how you can save on auto insurance and save thousands of dollars on your next policy. It’s time to switch insurance companies to get the rate you deserve. The Best of NY Auto insurance companies want your business.

Some Experts are Talkin’ Crash while Others Aren’t

There are enough media and realty pundits talking about a real estate market crash in New York soon. CNBC called from one back in the spring, but it’s not happening. Prices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, have kept rising slowly.

A Tale of Two Markets?

It’s softening in the high end luxury sector where DOM is lengthening and prices have dropped almost 1% during 2016 according to one report. But demand at the lower end has stayed strong.




New York State Realtor Association is Optimistic

lawrenceyunNYSAR reiterated NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s keynote speech at the 2016 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in Orlando, Florida. Yun explained that younger buyers are likely to drive growth in residential markets in the years ahead as the economy stays on a positive track and interest rates stay relatively low.

Here’s the 3rd quarter market report from NYSAR. New listings are down from the previous quarter, avg/med prices are up and number of months supply has dropped 29%.



Here’s an exerpt from NYSAR’s latest new report:

“Looking ahead, the modest closed sales increases in September and the third quarter may signal that the continued decline in available homes is starting to impede closed sales growth,” MacKenzie said, noting the 20.7 % decline in homes on the market at the end of the third quarter compared to the same period in 2015. “Buyers, who are trying to take advantage of otherwise favorable market conditions, are finding fewer choices available to them causing them to delay the purchase of their next home.”

The year-to-date (Jan. 1 – Sept. 30) sales total of 95,453 was 11% above the same period last year. There were 38,629 closed sales in the 2016 third quarter, up 2.8% from the 2016 third quarter total of 37,575. September 2016 closed sales increased 2.1%compared to a year ago to reach 11,780.

newyork-housingstats-3rdquarter2016

 

The New York Building Congress Forecast 2017 to 2018

Calls for $127.5 Billion in Total Spending Through 2018. 2016 was a record year for housing sales and jumped past the $40 billion mark for the first time. NYBC also forecasts a total of 147,100 jobs in NY’s 5 boroughs in 2016, an increase of 8,900 jobs from 2015 but will fall a few percent to 142,600 jobs in 2017 and 138,100 in 2018.

These screen caps are from HUD’s Comprehensive Housing Market Analytis of New York City, NY. New York’s economy was rolling along nicely.

newyork-employment2015 newyork-payroll-growth2014-2015

Is that forecasted softening in employment enough to cause a crash?

The Building Congress’s outlook for new home construction is 27,000 new units and $13.1 billion of residential spending in 2017, and 25,000 units and $12.7 billion in spending in 2018. That’s down significantly from the 36,000 units built in 2015. With nowhere to live we can expect residents new and old to bid on resale stock and that should keep home prices level.

Donald Trump did make an election promise to cut government spending and tax the wealthy and that could make an impact, yet it appears private demand is what is driving the economy right now.



Removal of the Dodd Frank noose and easing of mortgage lending should create more demand for homes in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, SeattleHouston, SF Bay Area, Miami, and well, every US city. If land development regulations are eased, it will allow for more home construction and help to ease the auctions atmosphere that has rocketed them upward.

It’s a health forecast with strong demand, stable mortgage rates, looser rules on financing, and a government bent on creating jobs in 2018 to 2020. Full speed ahead.




Related posts: Housing Market Forecast | Florida Real Estate 2018Homes for Sale | San Francisco Housing Forecast | Real Estate Video | Massachusetts Housing Forecast | Texas Real Estate PredictionsStudent Housing REITS |  How to Improve Impact | How to Improve Engagement | Seattle Real Estate forecast | Boston Housing Market Forecast | Boston Homes for SaleRealtor BrandingBlockchain and Real EstateStock Market Crash DJ Nasdaq S&PLA Housing Market | Toronto Housing Market | San Diego Housing 2018 | Real Estate Agents | Sacramento Housing Market | Rental Income Housing | New York Auto Insurance | Rental Property Income Investment

Gord Collins —  I do cool marketing stuff like content reverse engineering, impact blogging, semantic SEO for realtors, and insurance companies in Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego, San FranciscoMiamiBoston, New York, Chicago, Toronto, Seattle, Denver, and Chicago.

San Diego Real Estate Forecast

San Diego’s Real Estate Market

It’s hard not to forecast San Diego as a good housing market from 2017 through 2020 just as it is in LA, San Francisco and the Bay area. Buy if you can find anyone willing to sell.

The gorgeous climate, wonderful lifestyle, improving California economy, increased immigration of workers here, beefed up military spending, and proximity to Mexico and the Asian block countries means it is perfectly positioned for big housing demand and very high home prices. 




There’s no better place to relocate to if you’re established or your business is doing well. San Diego will give you back everything you give it and more. I’ve had amazing clients in San Diego.

San Diego is an exciting place to live and for real estate investment. Similar to South Florida, it’s younger buyers in the US and foreign buyers that are eyeing property here. And while many experts call for only moderate price increases, you’ll see the stats below are suggesting higher San Diego home prices and decreased availability. It’s the right time to sell your San Diego home.




What’s San Diego’s achilles heel? Lack of housing development and urban intensification. Another problem might be politicians trying to suppress growth in this little piece of heaven.  But San Diego’s smack dab in the middle of everything. They’ll be under extreme pressure to stop the resistance and net migration into SD County.

Political Resistance to Population Growth

In the face of huge demand, politicians will be under the gun about putting the Kaibosh on SD’s amazing real estate fortune. This factor will ensure prices will rocket out of control.  Are local SD County politicians and the California government doing much to grow housing developments inland? Will the exodus of illegal Mexicans ease the issue? Are illegals buying homes?

Demand for homes in San Diego County will never subside. It is one the best places on earth and prices will stay high. For homeowners here, it is on of those infrequent opportunities to cash out and make a killing. You only need a dream and somewhere to go.

Here’s an easy to understand Forecast of San Diego’s real estate future.

San Diego’s Real Estate Forecast for 2017 is Rosy

And that’s despite the negative outlooks of some toward all of SoCal. February 2017 saw significant price increases (e.g., La Jolla up 29% year over year for detached houses and 55% for townhouse condos) and it’s driven by the California housing shortage crisis. Because of that, we’ll see big home prices right through the spring. The same outlook applies to Los Angeles, Orange County, San Jose, and the San Francisco Bay Area.

This graphics below shows housing is in short supply and affordability is plummeting. It’s an emergency situation that forecasts big rent increases and strong home price growth. Since home building takes time especially in a heavily regulated environment, there’s little chance of diminished demand. With incomes increasing and millennials coming into their family building years, the stage is set for rocketing prices.

The Three Tiered Market in SD

This excellent chart below courtesy of First Tuesday, shows how demand for lower priced properties is almost a separate world. It’s this more steep tier that is most likely to see huge price growth. Will this turn into a San Diego housing bubble as part of a US housing crash?  The 2007 real estate crash saw big drops in luxury home prices in SD and this time around, we have to wonder if foreign money will vacate fast if the market heads downward. My opinion is that California and San Diego are pretty strong and there’s no other compelling destination for foreign money.

3 Tiered Real Estate Chart Courtesy of first tuesday

It’s an excellent opportunity for rental property investors who want to capitalize on the severe housing and rental property shortage. Property owners near the I5 with waterfront views in La Jolla, Del Mar, Claremont, Solana Beach, and Encinitas may not have much to be concerned with.

As long as the Trump ecconomic surge continues, San Diego’s outlook should be bright.




Should I Sell My San Diego Home?

You could hang onto your home for another 20%, but if enough San Diegans do keep their home off the market due to greed, the repercussions could be serious. This holding onto property is happening all over North America. With nowhere to go, there’s likely not going to be a big selloff anytime soon so price rises could elevate. To ease this crisis, governments could offer incentives for home sellers to let go of their property? For sure, new housing will not ease this crisis. What will make a difference is Realtors convincing people to sell their homes and move on with their lives.

Screen Capture courtesy of SDAR

The housing shortage is a  global phenomena, not just in San Diego. All the in demand cities are seeing foreign that’s fleeing other countries boost up prices in New York, Palm Beach, Toronto, and Miami. The new problem we may face is a shortage of construction workers, which could raise construction costs. That will put upward pressure on resale home prices.

 Considering Buying or Investing in Real Estate in San Diego?

Here’s 13 factors you should be weighing when buying or selling in San Diego County:

  1. Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases
  2. Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed
  3. Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening
  4. Down Payment and mortgage rules – Banks are withdrawing FHA loans however some are offering downpayments as low as 3%
  5. Regional Employment – Very low and falling
  6. Buyer Income – low yet rising quickly
  7. Home Prices – High and rising – out of reach for most buyers – many consider San Diego County homes grossly over-priced
  8. Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and their income is growing fast
  9. Number of Renters – increasing fast
  10. New Home Construction: slow (100k to 140k per year) and illegal workers being chased out
  11. Economic-Foreign Trade – Trump expected to raise US GDP and add fuel to incomes and home prices
  12. President Trump – uncertainty of what Trump will create and how much interference he’ll see
  13. Taxes on Sale of Home – Tax situation is great for sellers

What will the San Diego Real Estate Market Look Like in 2017?

2016 was a great year and there’s no reason to believe the market will falter. In fact, San Diego’s situation is very similar to the Los Angeles real estate forecast.  Typically, SD’s housing market doesn’t pick up until after the main markets have grown. Normally, it takes years before demand for high end luxury homes reaches speed here in SD.

The market right now is in waiting mode for US buyers to get richer – particularly Millenials entering their family raising years.  Sure there are South American Buyers looking for homes right now, as well as Russians, but that demand could dry up soon.

With the new Trump Era fully engaged, job growth will pick up steam in Southern California. This will drive growth in places like Escondido, Del Mar, Oceanside, Carlsbad, and San Diego.

San Diego Home Prices

Take a look at San Diego’s historic price chart courtesy of SDAR. Detached home prices are up $300,000 in the last 4.5 years. We’ll be looking at similar price growth rates in 2017.  Many experts are commenting more on a possible housing crash, which would include San Diego.

If you’re thinking of selling, this might be the best time to contact a San Diego Realtor and begin the process. There is no vertical price rise on the graph, or glut of first time buyers with underwater mortgages, but 29% price rises in La Jolla might be a signal of trouble ahead.

My guess is that we’re in for good times for a while in San Diego. Make sure you review the Los Angeles report and the Toronto Real estate forecast to give you a better understanding the global foreign buyer demand that’s affecting all markets. US home builders should  be optimistic about demand and put pressure on legislators to free up land and offer incentives.




Case Shiller’s home price index for San Diego is 229 compared to the national average of 185.

Screen Capture courtesy of SDAR Stats
Screen capture courtesy of SDAR Stats

According to SDAR, home prices are up 6% to an average of $540,000. The real estate trends reflect the general demand as shown in the Los Angeles Market report.  A sharp rise in real income, combined with lower unemployment, rising GDP, and fewer listings available points to higher prices in 2017, 2018 and 2019.  But things are heating up as we saw in La Jolla where detached homes rose an astonishing 29% to an average of 2.26 million. These rates are only seen in other cities such as Toronto.

Screen capture courtesy of SDAR Stats
Screen capture courtesy of SDAR Stats

 

About Business: Should San Diego be a Startup Haven?

Forbes published their top cities for startups report and they chose San Diego as the best place to launch a new business. You probably wouldn’t get too much argument that a medical and security software startup would thrive here, but is SD better than silicon valley at anything else? Blair Giesen of Thevoiceofsandiego.com is a little skeptical that investors are here and that San Diego is a tech hub. But don’t tell that to San Diego Startup Week who just had their 5 day convention. And conventions are one big advantage San Diego does have.

 

San Diego Has All the Charm and a Good Economy – But are You Communicating That Well Enough?

California was just named the 5th largest economy in the world and it’s had a great year in 2016. That’s amazing, but does San Diego’s small business and startup growth compare to that of LA and silicon valley? Some of the data below suggests that despite growth in manufacturing and professional services, talented workers may not want to move to SD county. With the Trump presidency firmly launched, San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles may be headed for boom times.

Source: Wallet Hub




Which industries are best for startup businesses in San Diego?

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Team Up with the Right Partners

Should San Diego Chamber of Commerce and San Diego Regional Economic Development be doing more?  Although some startups have found success, it isn’t easy to succeed especially in digital marketing against tough competition. Companies would be wise to get connected with companies and investors in other cities, perhaps Canada or the UK to build a wider base of success. By networking and accessing those components that don’t and never will exist in San Diego, SD might be able to compete equally with LA, NY, Boston and Silicon Valley. What shouldn’t be underestimated is the desire of companies in Vancouver or Toronto or London to work with SD companies. Motivation is a key factor in performance.

San Diego’s wonderful leisure climate and opportunities are a powerful draw to bring smart talent, business entrepreneurs, and investors from around the world. All that’s needed are people who believe in San Diego!

Check out SDEDC’s downloadable infographic of the current economic stats (June 2016)

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Should SD be Leveraging the 4 Pillars instead of Leaning on Them?

San Diego has 4 key industries including maritime/naval, healthcare, tourism, and research.

Although US naval fleets and operations are the biggest engine of business and tax revenue in San Diego, the future of war doesn’t look good. If defense budgets stay at current levels, that’s fine, but San Diego needs to grow and diversify to generate greater opportunity, investment and of course jobs.

percapitasandiegoAccording to dot.ca.gov, in 2012, most employment sectors in San Diego enjoyed job growth. And the city’s current 4.2% jobless rate is extraordinary. Most cities can only dream of that. The largest gains occurred in professional services (+5,700 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+5,400 jobs), and retail and wholesale trade (+4,500 jobs), and education and healthcare (+4,300 jobs). The only sector that lost jobs was government (-1,400 jobs).  

It’s expected that from 2013 to 2018, growth will average 1.9 % per year and the fastest rates of growth will occur in information and professional and business services with annual rates of 3.8% and 2.9%

Compare SD’s per capital income growth to San Francisco’s pictured here at right, and you can expect more skilled, creative talented IT related workers to choose Palo Alto and Mountainview rather than San Diego to work and live. But for startups, it might be better to stick to Toronto (see Entrepreneur.com’s vote), Vancouver or Charlotte. Boston, LA, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley are expensive. And Sergei Brin of Google agrees.

Don’t launch your startup in Silicon Valley. During the boom cycles, the expectations around the costs – real estate, salaries – the expectations people and employees have … it can be hard to make a scrappy initial business that’s self-sustaining. Silicon Valley is good for scaling that opportunity, providing more capital and allowing more risk.” — Sergei Brin stated at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit June 27, 2016

From 2016 to 2020, SD’s population will grow about 180,000 and per capita income will grow about $4,000 to an average of $58,428. The professional services sector will see the strongest job growth in total of more than 20,000 new jobs.

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San Francisco’s average income is $30,000 above San Diego’s. It will take a lot for San Diego Businesses to overcome that, and the fact that Silicon Valley is full of investment money.

And in this graphic at right, we discover that per capita income will rise much faster than the California average (other CA counties will do much better).

High wages in San Francisco, Palo Alto, Mountainview, Santa Clara, San Jose will draw high skilled IT workers like flies. However the Bay Area is pricey and the cost of doing business there will eat away at capital and profits.  Silicon Valley looks to India for alleys but Donald Trump might throw a monkey wrench into their machine.

 

REAL ESTATE: High volumes of sales and soaring home prices indicate that compared to the rest of the nation, California metros are benefitting from strong housing sector growth in 2013. San Francisco is considered by some to be the strongest market in the country, closely followed by several other California metros including San Jose, Sacramento, Orange, and San Joaquin Counties.

 

Where will you find San Francisco apartments for rent? Are you looking for the best cities to invest in real estate in 2017? Where is the best Vacation destination: Costa Rica or San Diego? Is this he right time to sell your home? Reports suggest people don’t intend to sell their homes so what impact will that have on the US housing construction forecast?  How will first time buyers ever get the mortgage financing they need to buy?

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Up or Down. How Will the Foreign Buyers Tax Affect Toronto Condo Prices?

Toronto Condos – Still a Smart Investment?

Screen Cap Courtesy of Pier 27 Condominiums, Toronto

The Toronto Condo Market couldn’t be more difficult to comprehend right now after the Liberal’s pushed their unwise Foreign buyers tax and rent controls. With availability of condos squeezed, prices in Toronto rose to record levels. What will happen this year and 2018 in Toronto’s condo market?

Toronto Real Estate Boards latest facts:  Condo availability down 18.8% and condo prices were up 24.3% compared to last year.  Demand for condos is expected to stay strong or strengthen while sustained lower availability should keep prices strong 2017 through to 2020.





Questions: Which way will prices and condo supply go in Toronto? Will reduced condo construction offset any rent controls now in effect? Can investors and condo developers still make a good ROI despite the rogue foreign buyers tax? Will the Ontario’s measures push the province into recession? 3 housing experts weigh in with their views below.

Should I Sell my Condo Now?

Urbanation’s Shaun Hildebrand

Urbanation senior vice-president Shaun Hildebrand suggested that rent increases had leveled off recently due to a new supply of condos hitting the Toronto market. His beliefs correspond with many experts belief that a lack of supply is the problem and that new supply tames the price increases.

In the Urbanation post: “While the market remains undersupplied, the report says the 11,315 newly completed condos that reach closing in the past six months helped to alleviate recent pressure on rents.”




The new foreign buyer tax is expected to kill demand from foreign investors. Kathleen Wynne has characterized these foreign investors as speculators as “undesirable” parking their money. She didn’t comment on whether immigrant investors are coming here to launch their business to give their kids a great education. She failed to specify why foreign investors parking money here is wrong or illegal. And she provided absolutely no data regarding how much foreign investment actually takes place in the Toronto Housing Market.

A number of Realtors and experts say foreign investment is only a small portion of the Toronto housing market.

If that’s the case, Toronto condo prices similar to Toronto detached home prices will likely not fall much and will recover probably by late summer. Some say this will be a brief market letdown and if new condo projects dwindle in number, it will only drive up condo prices in 2018 and 2019.

As you can see in these stats from TREB below, condo prices in Markham, Vaughan, Toronto West, Richmond Hill and even the hot zone of Toronto central, are reachable for many buyers. Adding 20% should still make them affordable.

Emporis, a research firm that specializes in Condo development reporting says there are 154 condo projects currently in construction in Toronto with another whopping 364 planned and 382 unbuilt. Ontario’s depressing tax could put prevent many new projects from moving forward which will constrain development and lower condo availability. That will move Toronto condo prices higher in the long term, assuming Ontarios economy can continue improving.

Barry Fenton, CEO of Lanterra Developments

Lanterra Development is a major condo developer in Toronto forecasts that condo prices will rise another 40%. Here’s the video interview with Catherine Murray of BNN.

Brad Lamb of Brad J Lamb Realty

In an early interview with Brad Lamb, a well known Realtor specializing in downtown Toronto Condos, Lamb suggested the Foreign Buyers Tax could conceivably lead to recession in Toronto and across. Lamb was then quickly rebuffed by Doug Porter, Capital Markets Chief Economist of BMO Capital Markets.  Porter blurted, “And I have eaten, drank and slept the Canadian economy for more than 30 years,” which look a little like a smackdown of Lamb’s credibility and capacity to speak with authority on the matter of housing economics. However, Bank representives to tend to align with current government positions on these types of decisions so we have to question Porter’s credibility as well.




In that same BNN interview, David Madani, of Capital Economics said that Toronto new housing construction accounts for 1% of Canada’s GDP:  “Accordingly, a moderate slowdown in Toronto housing construction wouldn’t put the entire economy into recession… It would take a much broader negative shock to national housing investment and personal consumption to put the whole economy into recession.”

But as we know now, the US is beginning to apply border taxes and we have to wonder when Trump will tax Ontario’s lucrative auto industry. The 1% that foreign investment in real estate provides, suddenly looks large. Now that the tax has been announced, foreign investors and our own condo development companies won’t trust the government.

 

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Predictive Analytics for Real Estate and Mortgage Agents

Forecasting Buyer / Seller Behavior?

I can predict you’ll be meeting more buyers and sellers in 2018 if you get smart about your marketing. And your strategy might include some new technology that’s giving realtors predictive powers. Who wouldn’t want their own crystal ball?

For instance, let’s say you discovered 300 young people, graduated and employed (linkedin), mentioning moving, houses, lack of space, frustration, or weddings (facebook), and displaying intent on instagram, blogs, twitter and other social media. Those behaviors tell you which of the 300 have the highest purchase intent.

Sellers too, express things long before they actually decide to sell such as retirement locations, health issues, kids moving, travel, and vehicle expenses etc. These are the events that lead to the sale of a house.

I Wish I Knew More about My Target Prospects

Your biggest challenges as a real estate agent or mortgage agent is a lack of information about potential clients and what they’re up to – especially for seller leads. Think of the potential value of you knowing who might be buying or selling way ahead of everyone else?

See the videos below and you’ll learn something fascinating.

Forecasting or predictive analytics is a dominant technology innovation happening right now and obviously has big implications for marketing and sales. Companies such as SmartZip have hopped on it and are providing techniques to mine social media activity to predict buying behavior.

There are other companies too, such Adgorithms who use artificial intelligence software to assess click behavior which leads to buying and selling.

What if you could watch your social media followers and draw a good picture of when they might be ready to sell?

Predicting Buyer and Seller Behavior

Google itself is into predictive modeling/analytics extensively with their RankBrain technology. They use it to serve up ads to searchers because they know what consumers will be searching for next in their buying journey. It’s sort of a precognition unit of Google. It works and has grown their ad revenue significantly.

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Tom Cruise in Minority Report image courtesy of tvtropes.com

Major national real estate forecasters have had access to excellent market data to map out predictions on housing markets resulting in a few good predictions (well, okay very few:)  So forecasting and prediction can work if there is enough high quality data, and an algorithm which can filter through it.

Amazon has their AI software helping them predict what their customers are going to buy next based on past searching and buying behavior. Then they suggest behaviors and products to their visitors.

It’s easy to lead someone if you know where they’re going.

You may have watched the Steven Spielberg movie Minority Report starring Tom Cruise. If not, check it out on Netflix.  The movie presented an interesting corollary to predictive modeling and predictive analytics. In it, 3 human brains are used as “precognitive” oracles and are fed all the data known (big data) in order to predict every person’s future behavior.

This is the beginning of what may become the precog world of the future. I’ll introduce you to one of the most intriguing lead generation services going — SmartZip which is unique approach to real estate sales forecasting.




How to Read Homesellers and Home Hunters Minds

What if you had some sort of crystal ball or oracle that could tell you where people wanted to live and when they were going to buy a home or condo? What if you could narrow down the most likely home seller leads?

With Predictive Analytics, real estate agents may be able set up and use their own predictive modeling of their Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Linkedin, and other feeds to find buyer and seller leads, and other realty trends. This could help with your word of mouth networking since it at the very minimum gets you to focus on the daily activities and psychology of your connections.

The Amount of Data Available keeps Growing

Work that Data!  Predictive analytics or predictive modeling.  That’s why programmers are making so much money and why some startups are hot properties themselves. Investors and businesses want to know what and when their customers will purchase in the coming days to years.

As a realtor, this information can also help you find buyers in your city or those interested in your city, who may want to sell their home and buy another.

How do they do it? Analytics experts are extracting data from social listening and other data held or data transferred in the cloud. Whatever activity is viewable and therefore downloadable, is extracted into a database and analyzed.

Big Data, and There’s Small Data Too

Big Data as it’s called is often collected from the cloud and other private databases and pooled to create an informative source of real estate information for realtors, investors, developers, politicians and civic planners. And the other part, small data, is the stuff you can collect from your own circle of connnections (social media).

The process might also be called data mining, however the semantics of it all is confusing. The key point of predictive analytics is that this huge amount of data makes it possible to extract patterns of behaviour online and foresee possible future behaviours and intentions.

The experts including those at NAR are using it to predict housing prices and investment risk. Understandably, a lot of people are pumped up about predictive analytics.

“Linking information can give you an incredibly detailed picture,” he said. “NAR’s strategy going forward is to determine the strategy and initial objective, identify models worth emulating, assess existing Realtor® resources, acquire and develop missing capabilities, run a pilot project, and then scale up.” – NAR 2013.

Core Logic is one such company utilizing data from the MLS databases.

Key CoreLogic ListingTrends metrics include leading indicators of house prices, listing inventories, days on market, and absorption rates by listing type—new, active, pending, closed, and sold. With deep and broad coverage of U.S. Multiple-Listing Services (MLS) data, CoreLogic ListingTrends provides monthly snapshots of time-series housing data—at the ZIP Code-level.

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Enter SmartZip Predictive Analytics for Realtors

In a previous post on , I mentioned Smartzip, who offers services for real estate agents and mortgage lenders. You’d be wise to check out their service packages and give them a try. They offer insight on ZIP code level which is a little more practical and relevant or the average agent. This can work in concert with my work as your real estate SEO specialist.

What you’ll want to focus on with SmartZip is their data backed selling predictions service to identify seller leads. If you’re selling income generating condos, luxury homes, rental properties, commercial real estate or purpose built student housing investment units, SmartZip could be a big asset.

SmartZip uses up to 24 segments or 2000 variables of data from a number of large listings and real estate firms. As Peter Grace, SmartZip VP says, “You’ve got a 1-in-20 chance in finding a potential seller client if you randomly knock on doors… but you’ve got a 1-in-10 chance if you knock on the doors we tell you to knock on.”

According to a report on mortgagenews.com, that after identifying the best prospects, SmartZip provides a multi-channel marketing program that produces emails and direct mail pieces, including digitally hand-written letters and post cards. It also has a backend lead management CRM feature that looks good. What can it integrate with?

SmartZip’s latest development is called Sphere Targeting – offering home seller analytics and targeted marketing campaigns for an agent’s sphere of influence — or your databases. You upload your personal contact databases to Sphere Targeting’s predictive analytics engine and their software delivers rich data insights and seller predictions for each contact on an ongoing basis. Very interesting.

SmartZip Reviews and Testimonials

Avi Gupta, President of SmartZip explains how SmartZip Works

If you combine predictive analytics with SEO, social media marketing, PPC and maybe remarketing, you’ve got a powerful online arsenal.

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