Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions to 2020

May 19, 2018. TREB reports another flat month in sales in the  Toronto housing market.  Sales shrank 1.2% and average home prices dropped only .2% during April.

If not for the Toronto Condo market, the Toronto housing market would be wheeled  into the critical care unit. What some are called a balanced market are twisting words about as far as they can be contorted.

You’ve seen the same discouraging stats for many months now. Nothing new. Perhaps it’s time to look at what’s wrong with this market and why Toronto housing crash is being uttered more and more.

Election 2018 – No Help for Housing?

The latest TREB report however was overshadowed by the bomb dropped by Doug Ford, leader of the PC party. Ford  suddenly recanted his promise to increase housing development and construction to help with the housing crisis. Voters were praying for relief and now it’s uncertain who will win this coming election. Political leadership in Ontario is a big negative for buyers and investors.

Since Toronto is slated to be a global supercity with a big increase in population, any land restrictions and red tape are serious issues. Right now buyers aren’t buying (house sales down 5%) and sellers aren’t selling (nowhere to go) so it’s a Mexican standoff during what should be a hot sales period.

It’s another indication that housing in Toronto is solely a political issue. Ontario’s election day is June 7th and this will put the Toronto housing conflict to rest either way. Yesterday’s news should be a boost for the Toronto condo market.




Toronto’s Insatiable Appetite for Money

Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market in the GTA seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices keep rising despite governments attempt to throttle it. On June 7th, Ontarians will get their chance to speak.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

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Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Please do share this report with anyone you know who might be buying or selling




Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

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Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Memories of a Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moved to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town meant speculators jumped on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring 2017 — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are still willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north.

What will the next few months bring for the housing market and economy in Toronto?  What are your predictions?

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Toronto Housing Market Crash – 15 Reasons why the Toronto Real Estate Bubble is About to Burst?

Toronto Housing Market Crash?

May 14, 2018. When we begin counting the many reasons why and when the Toronto real estate estate market might finally implode, we might agree it is a real possibility now.

It’s only the persistence of Millennials hoping to buy a Toronto condo that’s keeping this market alive. Although some call it healthy, this quiet in the “critical care unit” is deceiving. As new construction wanes, pessimism could become intense. Ontario needs new poltical leadership and a boost for the housing construction sector.

The drop in housing prices in the Toronto area has been shocking and now we hear Ontario politicians aren’t interested in saving it, even if it brings the Ontario economy crashing down.

Is the Big Toronto housing crash coming this year or 2019? Would it precede or or be connected at all to a potential Toronto stock market crash? In this post we’re going to explore the Toronto housing crash factors, some of which are getting noisy. Check here if you’re looking for the latest US housing bubble report.

Rising Gas/Oil Prices and $CAD, Troubled NAFTA

Added to 50% drops in sales, Ontario is looking at rising interest rates, rising gasoline prices and rising CAD, and lower government spending with a potential minority government (where nothing can done).

The Ontario government’s disturbing strategy now is now working within an economy on the downturn and a smaller tax base. Wynne was rightfully concerned about the TPP trade deal threat which holds little promise for Ontario manufacturing.





With the US pulling auto manufacturing back into the US, our auto industry is threatened. Oil could pull up the CAD value and decreasing competitiveness for Ontario, but it’s  looking good for the ailing Calgary housing market.

Companies here aren’t competitive with US companies enjoying a new low tax rates. You can read the other reasons for a doom and gloom picture for the Toronto housing market report.

If there’s been a perfect time to sell your home, this is it.

And with US President Donald Trump’s 2018 state of the union speech, it looks like the US is on its way to its biggest economic growth in history. Without the full benefits of NAFTA, Canadian economic predictions are troubled, and if oil prices rise too high, the Ontario economy is looking risky.

And for Ontario, the picture is less positive:

  1. the TSX stock exchange is one of the worst performing in the world
  2. the NAFTA deal may be cancelled or manfacturing exports down
  3. the TPP deal would open up Ontario to cheap Asian competitors
  4. the price of oil is rising and raising Ontario’s costs of doing business
  5. real estate is very expensive
  6. rent to income ratios are extremely high in GTA
  7. interest rates are high
  8. consumer debt is maxed out
  9. the Ontario government is anti-business and anti-housing growth
  10. Ontario’s taxes can’t generate enough money for infrastructure improvements
  11. the CAD is rising and eroding Ontario’s competitive advantage
  12. Canada has been near last in direct foreign investment for many years
  13. US tax rates have plummeted giving companies reason to relocate there
  14. cash strapped, stressed out Millennials will finally give up on the dangerous gamble of buying a home for $600k+
  15. the Federal Government may raise the Capital gains tax
The Toronto Stock exchange one of the worst in the world, and is tumbling in 2018
Canadian beginning strong rise against falling US Dollar.

Are Canadians thinking crash?

From the Bank of Canada governor to expert authors, there’s a dull roar of people warning about a Toronto housing crash. Are they contibuting and pushing or is this just plain fact?

Now we’re into 2018, home sales are slow, sellers are definitely getting nervous, and younger buyers more frustrated. More worrisome is the recent troubles in the stock market, with the rising dollar and rising oil prices which just hit $66 per barrel.

The debate raged last year, but it looks like Douglas Porter (his most recent thoughts) might have it right for a 2018 forecast.

Here’s Douglas Porter again on Feb 1 saying there is no immediate danger:

 

The Americans too are worried about a housing bubble in 2018, yet their economy is on a definite upswing. The amount of money being repatriated into the US (Apple bringing in $450 billion) is incredible. All that investment money is coming back home to create jobs in the US. Of course there will be a spillover into Canada.

Huge personal debt and a vulnerable economy combined with Millennial desperation and huge immigration growth are fueling some sort of event.

Everyone’s wondering what will start the avalanche. The election of the PC party in June could create the euphoria and optimism that will inflate prices severely next summer.  There’s some risk in it, however the benefits will be tremendous for anyone in Ontario looking to buy their own home.

“This is either a pause in the bubble and inflation is going to resume into even more stratospheric levels, or this is the start of a hard landing,” said Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager at RichardsonGMP and author of “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash.”

Should you list and sell your house now? Will interest rates and inflation, and government policies lead to a catastrophic housing and economic collapse in Canada in 2018/2019? Could our prime minister mismanage the economy?

In the booming US, they’re asking similar questions about a housing market crash. That would make a Toronto market crash more plausible. Yet many see the market ready to boom. Very confusing, but let’s take a look at the Toronto market crash scenario first and see all the factors to consider before you buy or sell your home.



2018, 2019, 2002 or Beyond?

If it’s not a question of if the Toronto market crash might happen, then might a questio of when — 2018 or 2019? Or will the crash threat simply fade as demand for homes weakens? Lots of uncertainty and not much consensus.

There’s a list of the crash factors however if they line up in a certain squence, it might be enough to set the house of cards plummeting. Is the key crash factor financial, political, or would it be a sudden loss of consumer confidence in real estate and the Canadian economy?

Much of Canada’s prosperity comes via natural resources and trade with the US. Despite all the optimism, trade restrictions (Bombardier loss) by the US are no joke as are falling commodity prices. And if you were a bank, would you want to lend out billions to young first time home buyers in the face of an unstable government and economy?

I just read a story about a company that is ready to help buyers rent to buy so they don’t have to pay a downpayment in some cases. Is the same scenario we had in 2006 and 2007?




Provincial Governments and Drastic Actions

The Ontario Premier impulsively reacted with the foreign buyers tax which helped cool demand, but the crash may not be about the flame. It may be about the fundamentals of a Canadian economy which has the least direct foreign investment of any G20 country and a shaky trade deal with one country which seems to blocking imports of our wood and oil.

The Ontario, BC, and Canadian federal governments have been so negative, repressive, and unsupportive of the contribution of real estate to the economy, that those actions are the key to a disaster. Continued suppression of land development for housing is creating a true housing crisis.

1 million new immigrants are arriving in Canada by 2020, it’s sets the stage for desperate buying (the dreaded housing bubble) and bigger opportunities for rental property investors.

Some experts suggest a crash is impossible, while other expert predictions (from TD’s Bank President), support the theory that rising unemployment and rising mortgage rates would be needed to begin the landslide.

Canadians have one of highest per capita debt levels of any G7 nation. With the NAFTA deal in trouble, we could see those rise. So when someone asks “should I sell my house” in Toronto, the response depends on whether the government will change course and help in a massive housing development program.

crashahead
Image courtesy of look4itknysna.co.za





What Causes Housing Bubbles to Form and then Burst?

What causes a housing market bubble?  What factors could burst Toronto’s bubble and possibly send the economy into a skid? Most of those factors are listed below. The key is rocketing demand (like we saw in spring 2017) combined with intensive government meddling, during a time of economic prosperity.

The key may be market susceptibility, instability, caused by investor uncertainty. After a charged up price index, an event occurs that sends investors scurrying fast.  It could be foreign investors or Canadian investors. Only if the economy suddenly loses its strength and people find themselves without jobs will they default and abandon their underwater mortgages, as they did during the US economic recesssion. When bank governors begin to use vague, waffling language, it creates the kind of uncertainty investors dislike.

Bank governor Poloz said that interest rates could move “in either direction.” He emphasized that the Canadian economy was still highly susceptible to shocks, and a cooling housing market combined with debt worries are still worthy of concern – from the Fool.ca  

Should I sell my house in Toronto and should I buy a condo in the Toronto area?

Find out how the Toronto Real Estate market shaping up.   Check out more detailed market updates and forecasts for of MississaugaVaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, and Bradford.

Vancouver’s real estate market has shown volatility of late. It looked like the market was coming back but it has leveled off again.

The lack of rentals is the “biggest pain point for our city,” With 100,000 people moving to the Toronto area annually, the region needs about 30,000 rental units. Toronto has about 1,500 coming on stream” from Toronto Star report.

If you’re thinking of selling your home to get in on this Toronto market winfall, you need to find a real estate agent. The market might not burst until 2018, but it could heat up badly in April, May and June to begin the freefall.

richmondhill4

What exactly happens in a real estate market crash? Here’s one answer:

If a bubble were to burst, the real estate market would slow to a crawl. “You’d probably see very little transaction volume,” said University of British Columbia professor Thomas Davidoff. “People would be locked into their homes and their mortgages.”  




In a crash, you couldn’t sell your home since buyers would just wait forever for the market to hit bottom and fewer could get financing to buy it.

Lots of questions to ask such as “is this just a monster luxury home problem?” If the market plummets, what will it mean if I have an underwater mortgage and can’t renew at higher mortgage rates?  Are my relatives wise to buy right now? Will a crash have an effect on employment in the Toronto area? Consider this from a report on CBC:

1 in 10 wiped out by 20% correction — A badly managed downturn in real estate prices could wipe out the wealth of a large number of Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers. We need to recognize that young families are the most likely group to be plunged underwater by a nasty housing correction,” said CCPA economist David Macdonald.

Sound scary? Then let’s take a real, no holds barred look at the real estate market in Toronto and the factors that could create a crash because our assumptions might be false.

Did you know sharing is good for your social health?  Share this post on Facebook, Twitter, or Linkedin or via email. It’s good to share!!




This report from the CBC tells us a lot about the whole business of forecasting crashes (and that they haven’t happened)

Prices keep rising. Bearish predictions that Canada’s housing market is about to crash, and calls for the government to cool hot markets, have been around for at least that long.

In fact, prices have risen steadily since the recession of the early 1990s and even the dip during the financial crisis of 2009 was a mild one. “Da Bears may some day be right, especially on the hottest markets, but getting the timing down is half the challenge,” Porter said. A Goldilocks market is not too hot, not too cold. But Canada’s housing market is running both hot, cold and lukewarm all at the same time.  From http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bmo-porter-housing-crash-1.3493809

Nostradamus and the Pundits

Some experts are calling for a housing crash in 2017, based on overheated prices, yet they don’t discuss what might be done to alleviate the problem in the Toronto region. The key issue for the Toronto real estate market, (as it is in the US market) is a lack of housing supply but there are other factors outline below. A host of government leaders have sought to crush land development and have quietly gotten away with their policies. But now the spotlight is aimed directly on them.

Could Premier Kathleen Wynne arrange to cancel the Places to Grow legislation and open up new land to ease home prices? Isn’t that a more sensible thing to do rather than providing more incentives for first time buyers who  are up to their ears in consumer debt pondering a very high priced condo or house purchase? Is Kathleen Wynne is precipitating risk factor for a big housing crash in Toronto? Will interest rates rise so buyers would be less likely to bid on homes and condos?

Some would suggest that she and the Liberals are too ideologically driven to flex on that one. Yet Wynn’s approval rating is now below 20%. That is really low so easing up when the Federal government is crack down on mortgages doesn’t make a lot of sense. Her super low rating means Ontario doesn’t want her as Premier anymore and out of desperation facing years more in office, she could do something risky to seek approval. Wynne is a sell now factor.

More Foreign Investment Needed

The high demand for homes and property from foreign investors from China and the Middle East and the US, has been  a wonderful thing for Ontario and Canada. If not for real estate, the world has no interest in investing in Canada. Foreign investment is at its lowest level in 60 years which means no one is going to save us.

Federal Justice minister Bill Morneau recently announced measures to cool the Toronto market, however experts feel the Feds can’t do much, in fact the Feds have said that themselves.  They believe the provinces should be managing their own affairs. That brings it back to the Wynne government who has used risky, sudden measures. So when ministers start using words such as fragile, you’ve been given fair warning about a potential crash.

Justin Trudeau should be travelling and posing for cameras on the subject of why investing in Canada is wise. New free trade deals with ailing South American countries won’t work because we have nothing to export and they don’t buy our stuff. Without financing, the Ontario companies don’t stand a chance competing against well funded foreign firms. A low dollar and access to the US market is all we have.

If the 2018 Toronto Housing Market does Crash

If a housing crash is imminent, you’d be wise to unload your property now during the winter. Is 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth missing out on the greatest real estate cashout of all time? Up or down market, a wise person would answer the question of “Should I sell my home now” is in the affirmative.

Toronto Housing Market Crash Factors

What are the economic and real estate market factors that affect your selling decision?

  • strength of the US economy
  • GTA economy and employment starts to fall
  • Canadian consumer debt reaching lmits
  • NAFTA agreeement conflicts and refusals
  • US restrictions on imports from Mexico and China begin to topple their housing markets
  • immigration levels drop off
  • add on taxation by Ontario, city and Toronto governments
  • soaring home prices fall
  • moderate new home construction – abandoned security deposits
  • government meddling with property use
  • mortgage rates rising faster
  • number of millennials buying homes drops or house prices are out of reach
  • Wynn and Trudeau don’t have a handle on the economy
  • political pressure to keep home prices up to protect homeowner’s equity and credit situations

What the Heck Happened in Vancouver?

The booming Vancouver real Estate market plunged not long after the foreign buyers tax was implemented. That hurt speculators and Asian buyers who were finding a way to invest in Canada. It was good for BC renters, but not good for Vancouver. Foreign investors will have lost some trust in the BC government. These sorts of radical taxes and regulations don’t go over well with investors.

Unfortunately, the pain of high rents and no vacancies was too much for the Vancouverites to to bear and they pushed the tax through. The Asian money soon transfered to Los Angeles and Seattle where potential is so high.
Will the bubble burst in Toronto soon? A lot of buyers and sellers and mortgage lenders are struggling with that question.




Kathleen Wynn and John Tory aren’t talking about the crash possibility and the various mayors in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora Newmarket etc aren’t saying much either. They’re enjoying the tax haul, but they realize Canadian consumer debt is a huge matter. If mortgage rates and unemployment rise, we’ve got a crash type situation on our hands.

With high home prices come new home construction and if you’ve been to Aurora Newmarket, Bradford and King township lately you’ve seen the huge growth in new communities. But the demand far outstrips supply. The fact is Toronto is a hot market and prices aren’t slowing.

Is this the best year to buy rental income property?  Read these posts on best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Does the Past Tell Us Anything?

If the past does tell us anything, it tells us we’ll probably make the same mistakes again about forecasting crashes and bubble downturns.  If we look at Toronto home prices over the past 60 years, we’ll see that they’ve just kept rising. Even the great recession cause only a small blip and the US recession of 2007 didn’t even leave a dent. As long as there’s a lack of development land, the price will speed up like an angry commuter on Indy 400 (or 404 or 401) and inevitably crash.

finposthomestoronto2017

The last thing we’re left with in pondering the possibility of a Toronto housing crash in 2017 is what starts an avalanche?  Is a stock market crash in 2019 a possibility that will affect your decision to buy?

Here’s a few resources on the bubble issue:

Housing market has ‘low probability’ for collapse: RBC report

Why Every Investor Needs to Worry About Canada’s Housing Bubble

Hands off my housing bubble!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-canada-real-estate-1.3822489

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Sacramento Housing Predictions | Current Market Update and Forecast for 2018 2019

Sacramento Housing Market in 2018

Is 2018/2019 looking strong for the Sacramento housing market? Consensus is yes. It may be hurtling at top-speed toward peak San Franciscification as one report has it.

The US and California economies look good and with President Trump pushing for fair trade agreements, it can only produce more GDP growth, upward wage pressures and further reawakening of the American dream, long since abandoned in the last 11 years.

And even with NASDAQ and corporate tech threatened, Silicon Valley is still the lightning rod of the American revival.



Yet, there are other ways to view the Bay area outlook.  Are peristent regulations, interest rates, or the natural tail end of the housing cycle harbingers of doom? Could Sacramento’s market collapse in a larger national or California housing crash?

Experts are torn in their predictions because there are so many conflicting factors affecting all US housing markets from Los Angeles and San Francisco to Boston and Florida. The rising prices are the result of higher demand and low housing availability almost everywhere.

Sacramento Riverboat Cruises

Not in My Backyard Sentiment is Strong

And California is where the housing crisis is worst. Residents don’t want the inflation, immigration, higher taxes, congestion, pollution, water shortages, and crime that new developments might bring.

In fact a report in the San Jose Mercury News suggests California politicians are failing to approve housing development initiatives. That translates to higher home prices and apartment rental prices for 2018/2019 and beyond.

Relentless Growth in Housing

Some suggest these nationwide trends will drive all markets from 2018 to 2020 — the demand in Sacramento County was just delayed. Is Sacramento worth it? It seems the lower prices is all that matters to most, however this area has a warm charm and excellent climate that many residents could never think of letting go of.




Yuba City and Sutter County Real Estate

The desperation of Sacramento residents is pushing them north to Yuba City and Sutter County to find bargain houses for sale.

See the Yuba City/Sutter County real estate update provided by Michele Swift. You’ll see all the local market details and comparisons with Sacramento.

Lifestyle factors, lack of availability, and affordability issues will drive home sales in Yuba City, Sutter County and other towns outside of Sacramento, and it’s worth a look up north.

Buyers from San Francisco and the Bay Area are still eagerly checking out Sacramento for bargains themselves. Realtor.com reports only 2770 homes are for sale on the MLS in Sacramento, a county of 2.4 million people.

Sac was the fastest growing city in the nation last year with a growth rate of 1.4% which accounts to a whopping 33,000 new residents.

Zillow reports that 89% of homes in Sacramento increased in value whereas only 7.4% of homes decreased in value. The monthly rent index grew 8.2% in the last year showing rental income property investment and speculation may be adding to the price pressure. For renters, who seek relief from $4,000+ rents in San Francisco, the $1500 price tag in Sacramento is alluring.

Sacramento’s Affordable Homes Draw

The current average home price in the city is $323,000 while Elk Grove and Roseville are priced at averages of $421,000 and $438,000 respectively.

To someone cashing out of the market in San Francisco, even these rising prices are very attractive.


pic: sacramentohousingstats pic courtesy of Zillow.com

This excellent chart agove from Zillow reveals exceptional price growth in Citrus Heights, Elk Grove, Fair Oaks, Florin, Orangevale, and Sacramento. El Dorado Hills and Rocklin recorded the lowest rates of price growth.

Realtor.com rated Sacramento as the 5th hottest housing market in the nation in February 2018, up from 8th spot in January. 14 of the top 20 were California cities. And the forecast for the state of California remains hot, including San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Los Angeles.

A report in the Mercury news shows demand for homes in Sacramento is coming from the Bay Area. One estimate is that 120,000 Sacramento residents work in the Bay Area. This makes this new mega region very attractive for all sorts of innovative living and working solutions.

“Each year, nearly 20,000 Bay Area residents are resettling in cities stretching from Davis to Sacramento and further east to the Sierra foothills, according to census data analyzed by the Greater Sacramento Economic Council.” – San Jose Mercury News




Home Prices 2017 in Sacramento County

This chart of home prices in Sacramento neighbourhoods, courtesy of Trulia, indicates those with the most intense demand from buyers. Take not of those in bold font below that have experienced the strongest price growth. Ask your realtor what are the keys to this jump in prices.

Sacramento Neighborhood Sales Price Year over Year Change
Poverty Ridge $377,400.00 -35.4%
East Sacramento $660,500.00 17.2%
Land Park $664,500.00 15.2%
Curtis Park $535,800.00 4.9%
Midtown $539,900.00 3.9%
Southside Park $419,000.00 -16.7%
Upper Land Park $483,100.00 6.8%
CSUS $550,800.00 8.9%
Newton Booth $369,000.00 -19.8%
Mansion Flats $376,800.00 -18.8%
Pocket $440,900.00 1.5%
Richmond Grove $725,000.00 42.2%
Westlake $456,700.00 16.9%
New Era Park $482,500.00 26.3%
Natomas Park $448,300.00 16.3%
Elmhurst $432,600.00 5.8%
South Land Park $428,300.00 13.6%
Little Pocket $421,300.00 -29.6%
Village 7 $423,900.00 -1.3%
Carleton Tract $346,300.00 21.5%
Sierra Oaks $477,000.00 -2.3%
Natomas Crossing $366,900.00 54.5%
Village 12 $370,800.00 13.6%
Downtown $402,900.00 7.9%
Willow Creek $377,600.00 10.5%
Z’berg Park $401,000.00 6.7%
Campus Commons $375,700.00 -2.0%
Tahoe Park East $325,000.00 3.5%
Med Center $384,600.00 11.2%
Natomas Creek $373,500.00 8.9%
Gateway West $370,500.00 13.3%
Tahoe South Park $320,200.00 7.7%
Regency Park $344,400.00 9.8%
South East $259,100.00 13.4%
North Oak Park $336,000.00 9.2%
Woodlake $419,300.00 14.5%
Sundance Lake $390,000.00 4.0%
Metro Center $350,200.00 20.7%
Hollywood Park $369,100.00 5.0%
Creekside $344,300.00 15.3%
Tahoe Park $376,400.00 14.8%
College / Glen $344,300.00 6.8%
Brentwood $379,200.00 55.5%
Tallac Village $257,600.00 1.9%
North City Farms $263,300.00 17.7%
Colonial Heights $277,600.00 -7.6%
Northpointe $280,800.00 4.6%
Colonial Village North $262,200.00 7.7%
South Natomas $281,000.00 15.8%
Valley Hi / North Laguna $300,700.00 20.1%
Strawberry Manor $188,600.00 4.4%
Gardenland $281,800.00 12.2%
Parkway Estates $248,300.00 0.3%
Northgate $253,900.00 12.0%
Avondale $206,700.00 4.4%
Mangan Park $283,400.00 12.5%
Parkway North $223,000.00 8.8%
Colonial Village $238,600.00 25.2%
Robla $272,800.00 14.4%
Meadowview $260,900.00 19.8%
Swanston Estates $283,400.00 37.5%
Tokay Park $203,800.00 -14.9%
Lindale $220,000.00 0.9%
Lawrence Park $213,800.00 7.1%
Hagginswood $208,400.00 4.0%
Oak Knoll $320,400.00 34.4%
Ralley Industrial Park $274,500.00 34.6%
Glen Elder $204,400.00 2.4%
South Hagginwood $182,900.00 38.1%
River Gardens $296,000.00 58.3%
Woodbine $223,500.00 0.2%
Parkway $236,300.00 29.9%
Central Oak Park $246,000.00 17.5%
Fruitridge Manor $102,500.00 -26.3%
South Oak Park $207,500.00 38.1%
Noralto $205,300.00 24.9%
East Del Paso Heights $190,900.00 11.8%
Richardson Village $221,300.00 51.6%
Golf Course Terrace $260,200.00 3.5%
Del Paso Heights $222,600.00 23.1%
Ben Ali $196,000.00 24.7%
Freeport Manor $303,800.00 38.1%
RP Sports Compex $150,000.00 20.1%
South City Farms $177,500.00 16.0%
Glenwood Meadows $252,100.00 10.4%
Willis Acres $187,200.00 7.5%
Airport $255,000.00 1.9%




Sacramento County is one of the hottest housing markets in 2018. If you’re an investor, you have to take this market seriously. With home prices at one third of neighboring cities in the Bay Area and 300,000 new residents in 2017, within a strong economy, there’s opportunity.

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Los Angeles Housing Market

Housing Forecast for Los Angeles 2018 to 2020

The real estate/housing market in Los Angeles enjoyed good growth during 2017. And predictions are for higher prices and good conditions for sellers.

However, the stats for January 2018 were a little sobering. According to curbed LA,  only 4,847 homes were sold in LA County. That’s an alarming drop from 6,613 in December and much less at 5,188 sales in January of 2017.

Prices grew $41k this spring of 2018. Predictions are for continuing high prices due to ongoing shortages.

The wild fires had an effect, in LA County and hitting regions such as Sonoma and Napa valley regions hardest. The insurance driven recovery should revive the housing market in LA.

The losses were estimated at nearly $10 billion with a $500 billion hit to the economy. The numbers are similar to the floods experienced in Houston TX or Miami FL .  Some homeowners are discovering they weren’t covered sufficiently with their home insurance.



The California Association of Realtors Outlook

CAR reported that:

  • single-family home sales fell 7.6% in January down to 388,800 and down 2.9% from January 2017.
  • January’s statewide median home price was $527,800, down 4.0% yet still 7.3% higher than January 2017.
  • entry level homes in California rose to $220,000 in California, up more than 10 percent from 2017 when entry-level home averaged $200,000.
  • the DOM for a single-family home remained low at 27 days in January, compared with 36 days in January 2017.

The California Department of Insurance said the fires cost $9.0 billion in insurance claims so far, which was 3 times the $3 billion claimed previously.  For the next few months however, California housing will be in extra short supply.



Fires might actually be an unfortunate distraction from the housing crisis that’s existed for many years now in Los Angeles and across the whole state of California. The state just can’t seem to get a handle on the need for more homes.

The OC Register reports that CEQA lawsuits against developments are a serious issue for housing, especially in the LA area. As Los Angeles residents suffer financially, and while housing crash rumors float around, prices are rising.  You’ll need an income of $120,000 to buy a home in LA in 2018.

Prices of condos in downtown LA are reportedly $90,000 higher than last year.

Insurance Companies Fielding Claims from Homeowners

Is it instinct or just common sense that California will continue as the most desired place to live on the planet? Does the climate in San Diego, Sacramento , Bay Area, and Los Angeles along with the high paying jobs, interesting geography, lifestyle and recreation, California is a magnet for people around the world.




Infographic Courtesy of CAR.org – LA Buyer Profile

In 2017, real estate sales in 2017 in California eased however house prices remain high in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, and San Francisco / Bay Area housing markets which had previously approached prerecession highs. But will they rise further and is this the right time to invest in an income property?

The short answer is Yes. Houses for sale in Los Angeles County and Orange County are in short supply and new residential development is not keeping pace. It would take a market crash to stop the price rise and even then it would only be for a few years. For wealthy investors, a few years is well worth the wait. The question is where to get a realistic price? The hunt continues.



Santa Monica House Prices

Average House for Sale Still Sells

CAR reports the average house price in LA rose about 10% in late summer of 2017. San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange County had strong price growth of 8% to 10%.   Contrast that with the drop in the Bay Area of more of about 3% or $14k to $33k for detached homes and you realize LA is a more attractive housing market for property investors.

The effect of the fires will be to reduce availability and raise prices. So not much relief in site for the LA market. As in most housing markets across the US, millennials have been shut out of the markets. They’re in their child bearing years and have saved up small fortunes to ready them to finally purchase. They’ll be buying in LA or Orange County somewhere.

Sales volume actually increased 11.5% in the last month, so homeowners appear to be loosening up finally.  Realtors are wondering how they can get people to sell their homes. Inventory is the big story for the fall of 2017.

This graphic from CAR.org’s latest report shows inventory in California is sharply down from last year. Sales above $500k were up up. Active listings in the lower price ranges are down considerably ( -10% to -28%).

Screen capture courtesy of CAR.org

And buyers
real estate investors are hopeful they can find the right property in the right city or zip code. Zillow has forecast house prices in Los Angeles to rise throughout 2018 while CAR shows it moderating. A lot depends on the political climate and interest rates.

Screen Capture courtesy of Trulia

We should keep in mind that only 30% of Californians own a home so the door is wide open for opportunity and new sales, particularly with first time buyers.  The problem is that homeowners don’t want to sell and buyers can’t afford the prices.

Why are Buyers Buying in California?

CAR’s 2016 survey showed only a small portion of buyers buy property as an investment. Only 13% are real estate investors.

California Home Buyer Survey Buyer Survey – Screen Capture courtesy of CAR.org

The US economy will pick up steam and Californians will be buying a home again even if they have 1 hour+ commutes, higher interest rates, and out migration to remote towns.

Check out the top housing factors below affecting housing prices in discover a better homes for sale search process.




The Telling Stats about LA’s Forecast

If buyer’s are hoping for bargains in the next 4 years, they’re unlikely to find them. Despite a dip in September, prices for homes and condos are up $24k to $30k from one year ago. Are the Asian and Persian buyers pulling out of LA?  The Trump instability and trade issue might be a pause before even more money pours into the reviving American economy.  Make American Great Again, also creates excellent investment opportunities in California, paying out in $US.

  • jobs being repatriated back to the US from Mexico and China
  • employment already good and rising
  • the end of Obamacare?
  • the end of Dodd-Frank restrictions on lending
  • general Federal easing of real estate development expected
  • it will take some time for mortgage rates to rise
  • still isn’t enough housing to house LA’s growing population (recession)




It’s the Los Angeles housing forecast that is perhaps one of the most interesting forecasts for the US for the next few years. California’s housing developers are hard pressed to build homes to house the population. We can speculate that homes will rise in price for the next 4 years. It’s not easy to predict though when people are talking real estate bubbles, NAFTA cancellations, Brexit, skyrocketing prices, vacillating oil prices, reduced immigration, and presidential elections.  




malibusmall
Malibu Coastal. Photo courtesy of marisolmalibu.com

Overall, the Los Angeles forecast was very good for sellers with plenty of demand and with the average price of a home hitting $690,000 last summer. Affordability is dropping though and only 30% of LA county residents own a home. 

Given the nasty commutes Los Angeles workers are enduring, this housing crisis should be a top priority for the California state governor.

A few pundits are suggesting homeowners need to build granny flats in everyone’s back yard.  Political battles are forming over the effect of regulations on LA’s and California’s home construction. Who will win? Will they battle Trump head to head to stop new development?

The situation may become worse than what San Francisco, Vancouver, and Toronto have been through, and what Miami, New York, and Boston may be into now.


Save your Money on Auto Insurance Quotes in LA

Are you paying too much for car insurance in Los Angeles? Some zip codes and neighborhoods are subject to higher premiums. Are you okay with that? How about finding lower car insurance rates and making it a habit of shopping for auto insurance every year? 2017 is a good year to save:)

Here’s the Hottest Zip Codes in Los Angeles

LA Curbed’s list of hot zip codes: Los Angeles’s 90012 zip code is shaping up to be the 2nd fastest growing area in the nation at 8.8% growth, 2nd behind only Gilbert AZ. The 90012 zip code includes Chinatown, the Civic Center, Elysian Park, Victor Heights, parts of the Arts District and Bunker Hill, and most of Little Tokyo.

Here’s the LA Times hot zip code list:

Santa Monica 90402 – Average home price: $3,237,500

Hermosa Beach 9025 – Average home price: $1,693,500

Lincoln Heights/Montecito 90031 – Average home price $458,500 +14.6%

City Terrace  90063 – Average home price: $320,000 +18.5%

Marina Del Rey 90292 – Average home price: $2,157,500 +23%

Manhattan Beach 90266 – Average home price: $2,100,000 +10%

Compton – 90220 – Average home price: $285,000 +9.8%

Playa Del Rey 90293 – Average home price: $1,517,500 +26.5%

Toluca Lake Studio City  91602 – Average home price: $1,022,500

Read more on the best zip codes in the US for investors and homebuyers.

LA Home Prices Fully Recovered?

The Los Angeles home price graph below courtesy of Zillow shows how prices have almost returned to pre-recession values and are beginning to level off. To forecast prices and demand for the LA region, we’d have to examine the cause of the moderation and if it’s a fact. Here’s LA’s hottest zip codes.

 

Last year, home prices in LA rose 7.8%. That’s a fairly strong ascent to just snap out of, so we’re left wondering what really is the outlook is for the 2017 to 2020 period? With prices high and rising, it makes sense that the number of buyers will dwindle (preferring to rent) and a leveling off would occur. It seems however, this is more of a guess by forecasters not really backed up by a solid consideration of all the factors that will be in play during the next 4 years – defeated regulations, growing economy, and reduced immigration.

Homes for Sale in Los Angeles: Prices, Trends from Zillow

Try the Zillow Home Search Widget to learn more about LA Homes for Sale. Realtors, click here to hear more about the Zillow leads program:

 

Home Sales Volume Chart: Los Angeles

la-home-sales-firsttues

Is there a Housing Bubble Market?

harvardHere’s the thing. According to a Harvard real estate guru, bubbles don’t burst until demand dries up — an increase in unsold inventory.

Do you honestly think there will be no demand for coastal California property, especially Los Angeles county or Orange county?  As you’ll see from the data in this post below, there is huge demand for property. Supply is the problem.

Factors Affecting House prices and Availability in LA

  1. Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases
  2. Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed
  3. Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening
  4. Down Payment and mortgage rules – Banks are withdrawing FHA loans however some are offering downpayments as low as 3%
  5. Regional Employment – Very low and remaining low
  6. Buyer Income – low and not rising much
  7. Home Prices – High and rising – out of reach for many buyers – many consider LA homes grossly over-priced
  8. Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and LA millennials have had the lowest rate of home buying (pent up demand)
  9. Number of Renters – increasing fast
  10. New Home Construction: slow (100k to 140k per year)
  11. Economic-Foreign Trade – Trump expected to reduce US deficit
  12. Election Year – Voters uncertain of what Trump will create
  13. Taxes on Sale of Home – Tax situation is great for sellers




Historical Data

This intriguing graphic courtesy of https://journal.firsttuesday.us/ reveals that home sales in Los Angeles is actually well down from historical levels. The likely reason for that is lower income buyers simply have even less income to buy and of course the high prices. Home ownership is lowest in California.

la-case-schiller-index

A complete recovery of around 110,000 annual home sales will likely occur in 2019-2020, as end user demand in Los Angeles County is buttressed by a Great Confluence of Baby Boomers (Boomers) and first-time buyers who are lured by further employment (needed to accommodate population growth of roughly 1% annually since the beginning of the Great Recession).

That’s a forecast growth of about 20,000 homes per year over current current 2016 levels.

Another interesting stat provided by firsttuesday is the very low rate of home ownership and how much it’s plummeted. It’s on the uprise now, and you’re left wondering whether Trump’s renewed emphasis of America First will encourage the growth of home ownership?

la-homeownership

LA Economic Forecast – Very Rosy

la-economic-forecastThe forecast for economic growth for the Los Angeles is optimistic at this point. Visit https://laedc.org/2015/09/30/new-2016-2020-economic-forecast-published-93015/ for the most recent info and their forecast up to 2020.

 

This Stat from CAR shows homes have been on a rollercoaster ride of sorts yet, 2016’s expected resale volume is still well down from 2011 and 2012’s highs. If incomes should rise in the LA area, it could have the effect of stimulating new housing construction and increase sales of homes. With the number renters skyrocketing, there’s a huge pool of potential buyers.

Home reSales Forecasts 2016f

la-housing-stats

This graphic reveals the exceptionally high cost of renting in Los Angeles compared with other major centers. The housing availability problem isn’t isolated to California or LA, it’s a US wide issue. The high housing costs in the coastal California areas however may prevent many skilled workers from migrating to LA to work. Startups for instance may be forced to leave San Francisco, Bay Area and LA because of the cost. San Diego County may be a better option for the short term.

la-rentals

This is a short term forecast from LA realtor James Campbell, who believes prices will drop?!

What can we conclude from the above data? That LA’s market for realtors is very promising, yet just as it is in San Francisco, Toronto and Vancouver, finding sellers and convincing them to sell will be a key challenge.  Digital marketing efforts could be vital to any realtor hoping to maximize demand and achieve highest price for their clients. Is this the right year to buy rental income property?  Find out which are the best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Check out other posts providing realtor tips, prospecting strategies, social media strategy, and tactics used by top flight luxury realtors and even lead generation companies.




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Gord Collins —  I generate leads for realtors in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Sausalito, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Fresno, NAPA, Tiburon, Oakland, Palo Alto, Anaheim, Beverly Hills,, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento, Encinitas, Orange County, LA County, Riverside, Malibu, Santa Barbara, San Bernardino, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Irvine, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita,  Henderson, Mesa, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Chula Vista, Escondido, and Santa Monica, Venice Beach, and La Jolla. See additional housing market reports on New York NYC, San Diego CA, and San Francisco CA.

When is the Best Time to Buy a House?

Best Time to Buy a House?

Whether it’s 2018, 2019, or 2020 that you hope to buy a home or invest in a rental income property, you might be comforted by the knowledge that real estate does well anytime you buy.

If you take great recessions and banking crises out of the timeframe you’re considering to buy, then your long term investment is sound. The historic price charts show rising home prices throughout the decades.

In every major city, the market forecast is good.  The Boston housing market, New York real estate market, Florida housing market, Houston housing market, SeattleSan Francisco, or Los Angeles housing market, the value of real estate has surpassed the stock markets, gold and of course your savings account.




An if you’re a first time buyer, paying a huge chunk of your income to rent, this whole matter of buying at the right time is important to your current and future well being.

Avoid the Peak Times to Buy a House

So you’re wondering what time of year is best to buy a house? Or, are you wondering if there’s a time of the month where more houses suddenly come on the market, where you might get first dibs? Sometimes selling after a major weather problem might be a good time too.

The floods in Houston and Miami, and the fires near Los Angeles and landslides near San Francisco, are events that trigger bargain home purchases.  If prices have fallen precipitously as they did in the Toronto housing market and the Vancouver housing market, then this bottoming out period might be a great time too.

Okay, for those without a strategic sense, buying in the fall months traditionally might be best to get lower prices. However, everyone pulls their house off the market during October, November and December. That can’t be good for a home search.

If you have a smart Realtor, and a real good home search strategy, you might be able to find those sitting on the fence and get a low ball offer in. You might get lucky and save tens of thousands of dollars and get a property that everyone else gave up on.

Is Spring the Best Time to Buy a House?

Spring 2018 is a great time to get started your house search. Home owners and buyers are arising from their winter dens and thinking about 2018. In many cities, the demand for homes has already started. Realtors are still talking multiple offers and bidding wars.

If homebuyers are actively listing to sell during January to March, then they are likely eager to sell their listed home.




They might be babyboomers sitting on the fence about selling (they’ve got nowhere to go) or they could be Generation X aged couples thinking about moving up to a larger property. A lot of buyers, perhaps you to want more space.

If you meet with these property owners you may be able to convince them to progress with their life plans. That means anytime time of year might be the best time to buy a home.

A report from Trulia shown below reveals fall prices drop by about 7% yet still remain 5% below for the months of January, March and February. You can find a bargain from January to April 1st. That means you should be looking right now for your next home or condo, before mortgage rates start to climb.

January, February and March might be the best time of year to purchase a property for real estate investors as well.

This might run counter to what people believe and have been told about the market. It might be harder to search for a home and get sellers to sell quickly. But remember, the actually possession date is off in the future.

People who might sell have more time on their hands in the Winter, especially if they live in Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, New York or Boston. It’ll be easier to get in touch with them and discuss your sincere, heart felt offer.

The best time to buy might be right now. If the economy improves and wages do rise, home prices will rise throughout the 2018 to 2020 period. Unless you’re very pessimistic and believe in catastropic events, demand for housing is unmet across the US and Canada. With more money in the picture, the longer you wait, the more it will cost.

It Doesn't Pay to Wait to Buy a Home

Launching your Research to Negotiation Strategy

So now, you need to discover the best way to reach them. Having a realtor who feels similarly about the winter search timeframe is good. If they don’t like, go with someone else. The compatible Realtor is likely not busy so they can put a better effort into finding homes, approaching the homeowner, and working with you to put out the best offer.

They may even take a lower commission, but don’t push that. The Realtor will likely be worth the 2.5% you pay them. If you wait till April, May or June to buy, you’re getting the highest prices, most competition, and your Realtor is too busy handling multiple clients and micromanaging negotiations. So that’s the worst time to buy — when everyone else is.

Another bad time to buy? During the Super Bowl Game.  Take a look at the Super Bowl predictions and put your money down, and then enjoy the game on Feb 4th, 2018.

When is the Absolute Best Time to Buy a House?

The very best, ideal time to buy a house in the winter, may be near or at the winter holidays such as Easter, spring break, or teacher professional developent days. Homeowners may be at home and may be most susceptible to the idea of selling and moving.

Late winter is a restless time for those in the cold, snowbound north, which is why a good number of people fly south for a vacation. Discontent, fatigue, boredom, and desire for something better is what gets them off the fence about letting go of their old house. Why do people sell in the spring? Because they’ve had enough after their winter of discontent. Catch them early.

Don’t worry about which days are best to buy a house. The key is to use your all channel accelerated home search strategy into action, and begin uncovering your dream house amidst winter’s gloom.

Good luck with your house search. You’ve found the best time to buy because it’s the best time for them to sell.




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Predictions of a Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver in 2018 Reports Forecasts Predictions Canadian Housing Market

Will 2018 Bring Another Housing Boom in Toronto and Vancouver?

Are the Vancouver real estate market or Toronto housing market going to crash , lift off, or coast in 2018/2019? Has all the negative press made you believe the end is near?

Bankers and politicians keep trash talkin the housing markets. However, as you’ll read here, there is more reason to believe in strong growth arising from a healthy economy, high immigration, demand from 25 to 33 year old Millennials, low mortgage rates, a growing housing crisis and more.

Demand is high, supply is being strangled.

Wynne, Trudeau, and the bankers feel pretty certain they can crush this market (okay, they’ve persisted but will the Canadian economy and stock markets crash in 2019?  But this beast isn’t going to die. It’s driven by dreams and expectations about how we’re supposed to live.




Here’s my outrageous forecast: The demand is so high, they will have to completely reverse course and begin supporting construction and development and enabling purchases. Otherwise, as the election nears, they’re gone.

They’ll look like hypocrites, but the public will forgive because housing is a bigger issue that’s causing serious social troubles. As investors focus on rental properties, such as apartments in Toronto, even rents will skyrocket in Toronto. Toronto property management firms are headed for their own boomtimes.



As spring approaches, we’re going to see intense price pressure driven by a lack of supply. Royal Lepage just released its market forecast survey and they’re predicting Toronto houses prices will rise 6.8%.  That aligns nicely with this whole notion of boom times ahead.

And it turns out, construction is already booming.  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that the pace of housing starts picked up in November nearing the highest levels since 2008. Given that we just went through a boom, that’s remarkable.  CMHC believes construction of multiple-unit projects in Toronto has been a driving force behind the trend.

Benjamin Tal is also suggesting a boom in Toronto and Vancouver and it would restart in 2018. You can read more below.  Should you buy now or in the spring?  Take a good look at the Toronto real estate forecast and the further reading below.

Breaking News: Trudeau to bring in one million new immigrants in next 3 years. Question: where will they live?

Despite government negativity, statistics, the underlying fundamentals of demand along with the ongoing strength of the economy are suggesting an improvement.  That means a prison riot might be coming soon. You’ll find a list of credible reasons why the Canadian housing markets might surge again below.




The experts have been forecasting a Toronto or Vancouver crash now for many years. Hasn’t happened, so perhaps we need to think for ourselves? The market continues with confidence and optimism overpowering persistent negativity the politicians keep pushing out.

How is the US housing market doing? Nervous but very good. Post hurricanes and fires and political upheaval, the markets in Miami, Boston, New York, Houston and Los Angeles are healthy. And 2018 stock market predictions are positive for several years.

Let’s take a look at the factors and the two opponents: our politicians vs strong growing economies. Only one will win.




Let the Housing Good Times Roll!

The IMF and OECD seem to agree, saying Canada’s economy is the best looking in the G20. The case for a Canadian housing boom has some wind in its sails. If political suppression of the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets were to end, the rest of Canada would awaken.

What we don’t know is whether the government will attack  the momentum or let it power the economy further. Currently they’re riding a wave of populism driven by angry renters in Vancouver and Toronto.

But what if that voice faded and the exact opposite public opinion appeared? Justin Trudeau’s popularity has dropped to 25%, Wynne’s pushing towards zero, and that means they may have to reverse course to stay in office. Don’t believe they would do it? Never say never.

Politicians Crushing the Housing Market

Currently however, Wynne, Trudeau and Horgan are holding their own private “let the good times roll” party. Their unwise meddling in the housing market is a threat to the Canadian, BC, and Ontario economies as explained below.

And it’s all for political points that may soon be worth nothing because when you cater to a small select crowd, eventually everyone else wants you out. In truth, only the prices of million dollar estates have dropped a little and the rest of Canada is hurting.

Demand for housing is relentless and Millennials don’t want their dreams dashed. The larger voice will be heard in 2018.




People want homes and these 3 politicans will be booted out of office because of it.  The only ones voting for them are those in Toronto and Vancouver cities. The rest of the country wants to see lower mortgage rates and an improved economy.

A good number of Canadians are weighed down by thoughts of the last recession rollercoaster and don’t really want to go back there. Business people and investors want growth. They’ve got a lot on the line.

And the politicians they’ve discouraged the builders now. So, although everything is in place for a continued housing boom in Canada, these politicians could push us into a mess.



“At this point we do not see any real relief. In fact, the opposite is the case,” writes Tal. “Without significant changes to land and rental policies alongside a dramatic change to housing preference among buyers, those centers will become even less affordable.” – Benjamin Tal in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

Key Factors Supporting a Housing Boom in Canada

  1. global economic winds are positive
  2. Trump will rekindle trade with Canada (he has to)
  3. oil prices rising a little
  4. wages will begin to rise
  5. too many millennials need to move out of the parent’s places
  6. bank of mom and dad has plenty of funds ready
  7. supply is low and builders and construction workers are waiting to build again
  8. the rest of Canada is tried of being kicked around
  9. Trudeau and Wynne severely disliked
  10. China is liberalizing trade and investment with the world
  11. Canada’s economy is going gangbusters (3.6% growth forecasts)
  12. lumber producers would rather sell their lumber here
  13. mortgage rates still low (and there’s no real reason to raise them)

Video: Greg Bonnell of BNN Explains How Housing Prices Can’t Go Down

Strong Economy Usually Means Boom Times

Benjamin Tal may have meant a price boom is imminent because of severe shortages in the Vancouver housing market and the Toronto housing market.  And if prices rise, we may see construction starts also slowly rise and a juiced up housing market would in turn lift the Canadian economy higher.

A synchronized global recovery and rising global trade volumes are backstopping the growth, along with the bottoming out of the oil shock in western Canada and soaring home prices in Toronto and Vancouver — from a report in the Toronto Star.

And prices of oil have climbed, meaning Calgary’s real estate market and those in Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina might return as well. Fears are that OPEC is solidifying and a war between the 2 biggest producers could erupt. That would bring an immediate boom to Calgary.

Screencapture courtesy of BNN

This is a screenshot below is of historic oil consumption from Doug Rowatt’s post on the greaterfool.ca. The price is forever upward.  Is the time time oil shoots toward $100 a barrel? Some are predicting it.

Forecasters like Oil: “Open interest in $100 call options for December 2018 has tripled in one week to exceed 30,000 lots, according to Reuters.   The $100 December 2018 options is the largest strike for all of 2018.” — from USA today report.

Condo starts have been strong and look to continue. The Toronto condo market and Vancouver condo market will be driven by property investors according to reports.

BNN’s Greg Bonnell Interviews Bryan Yu, Senior Economist at Central 1 Credit Union regarding Vancouver’s perpetual positive market in a past interview. What stands out about the conversation is that Yu says affordability won’t affect prices, and that only an external factor, such as a Chinese implosion would create a Vancouver slowdown. At this point, with Trump’s visit to China, that the Chinese are adapting to global business and are welcoming foreign investment. No reason for a China problem. Vancouver looks great.

What makes Toronto’s condos an attractive long-term bet is the city’s low vacancy rate, which has fueled bidding wars among renters and driven monthly condo rents to an average of $2,074 in the second quarter, up 7.2 per cent from $1,935 a year ago, according to market research firm Urbanation. — from a report by Bnn.ca.




Severe shortages are likely to drive home prices high. Most forecasts and expert predictions are for a flat market for 2018. Yet the economy is strong and looks to get stronger so a flat market is really about sales volume. Prices are so high no can afford to buy houses in Vancouver or Toronto and soon for condos.

It’s Still a Seller’s Market

It’s a seller’s market in 2017 and 2018, and with rent controls suppressing new construction, the pressure will build to create higher prices of resale homes and condos. As wild as Benjamin Tal’s prediction is, it jives with what’s going on in the economy.

Douglas Porter believes the market will heat up too, but his view is that it will end with a housing market crash.

If NAFTA talks go well, which they likely will, the North American and global economies will both grow. That doesn’t fit with some bankers and politicians wishful prognosis of stagnant or reduced prices in 2018/2019.

The latest numbers from Novembers mid month report by ZooCasa shows a surge of listings this month.  This rapid rise in listings in houses and townhouses tells us sellers might be too desperate, overestimating the effect of mortgage stress test changes, and clearly not of the view that the market will climb in spring.

In TREB’s monthly price charts, prices in the core districts of Toronto haven’t fallen. The demand for homes within commuting distance of jobs is high and buyers will likely pay any price. Home prices in the 905 area code have fallen (York Region, Mississauga), but perhaps that’s ready to heat up in 2018. There are still bidding wars and lots of over asking sales happening.

Let’s not forget that many renters and some homeowners will have to leave their current homes, and they will be exposed to a zero vacancy market you normally associate with New York City or San Francisco.



Does This Fall Season Foretell of 2018?

The fall season has been strong, and while the new mortgage rules will suppress demand for more expensive homes, and condos, those under $600,000 will be high demand. That will push prices up. So although some homeowners are pannicking and dumping their houses on the market, demand in 2018 will gobble them all up. Let’s not be distracted by the $3+ million dollar homes in Forest Hill and Mount Pleasant.

The Toronto condo market is sizzling hot and they’re running out of condos.

It’s a simple matter of supply versus demand in Toronto and Vancouver. The only solution is to end anti-development legislation. Vancouver and Toronto have been designated high growth super cities with large numbers of immigrants with visas and foreign students arriving every month. How can that be stopped now?




Government Manipulation Could Create an Economic Slide

If Trudeau and Wynne try to counter rising prices and demand for homes brought on by demographic and economic factors, via policy changes, it may create a bubble and then housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver, cascading right across the country.

In fact, it’s likely that they’ll both be run over be the economic train neither had any part in creating. For Trudeau, it is hypocritical to recruit a million new immigrants and then not help withh the housing crisis.  I think he’ll come around because of this. However, it still leaves the BC and Ontario premiers left blockading the housing highway.

For those who don’t want to live in these modern mega cities, there are other areas of Canada to live. The north is undeveloped, but as more babyboomers tire of the congestion of the city, they’ll be looking for homes, at least for 6 months of the year, in Canada. They may have to go north to find one, if anyone’s building up there.

And they won’t find much relief in Muskoka, Niagara Falls, Kelowna, or Victoria. Prices are up in most retirement cities and they’re rising in Costa Rica, Mexico, Florida and Arizona. Too many people bidding on too few properties. Simple math that seems to befuddle politicians.

Before buying a home or investing in rental income property, get some advice on maximizing your investment. The path you take might be surprising. Expand your search for homes for sale with an intelligent strategy that does more than calling a Realtor.




Before you sell, consider advanced selling tactics that can capture the full interest in your home. The demand for your home or condo is out there in the real marketplace. They just aren’t aware of your property. Marketing is worth many times what you pay for it. Consider the exposure of your property on Google, Google adwords, Facebook ads, in addition to your MLS listing. Don’t be timid. Power it up!

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Future of Digital Marketing – 2018 Forecast – 2018 to 2023

Digital Marketing Forecast: Which Trends will Affect Your Business?

What could be more fun for a digital marketing agency owner, marketing strategist, digital marketing specialist or entrepreneur than understanding their market and where the opportunities for growth are?

There’s a lot of non-sense in expert forecasts, from bitcoin to wearables to virtuality reality and the Internet of Things. These may be the shiny new things that won’t impact SMB marketers much. Yet other trends will quietly invade, leaving no indication they’ve changed the playing field or tell you how you can compete. That part is kind of frightening.

The Drum points out in its forecast that experiences will dominate marketing strategy. That points to audience engagement and the customer journey is somehow being brought alive with something new.

And while the marketing agency is in jeopardy, many agency leaders will recognize the opportunity to lead in specific new marketing technologies and be helpful in aiding clients in utilizing them.

Technology Vs Status Quo

Content marketing, mobile marketing, social media, and marketing automation were the big trends. However, will 2018 to 2023 be business as usual? My guess is likely not. Smart Insights in their forecast for 2017 focused on Big Data.




Screen Capture courtesy of Smartinsights.com

The rankings might depend on your market, industry, budget, and what management or marketing role you’re playing. A digital marketing strategist in an agency would have a different perspective than a small business owner or marketing app developer.

Big data and artificial intelligence aren’t quite yet in the common vocabulary. It takes at least 3 years for the masses to catch up. But, believe me, 3 years is long enough to find yourself out of the race. They’re already in the corporate sphere giving corporations a huge advantage over SMBs. Will SMBs survive?

Will Google and Facebook Continue their Domination?

Will digital marketing be replaced by PPC advertising and optimized landing pages? Will audience engagement be live, ongoing events hosted on Facebook?

Will all websites be hosted on Google’s AMP project?  Will AI Marketing software result in massive shifts in staffing and force companies to reassess their marketing strategy?  Will AI give give the digital marketing specialist awesome optimization power?

Like forecasting the real estate market, the realm of digital marketing is maybe too complex to forecast accurately. But then, we do need some sort of map to plan our marketing directon. We must choose the right channels and tools so this is time well spent.




Top 8 Digital Marketing Trends to Watch for the Next 5 Years

1. PPC and Digital Advertising

Sure spending on content marketing, PPC, and SEO are climbing. PPC, remarketing, and mobile advertising is a vital no brainer for millions of businesses. But is ppc advertising becoming too expensive? As it increasingly strangles your marketing budget, do you have alternatives ready to go in 2020?

By 2019, marketing leaders will spend more than $103 billion on search marketing, display advertising, social media marketing, and email marketing — more than they will on broadcast and cable television advertising combined – Forrester Research from the US Digital Marketing Forecast, 2014 To 2019

2. Bringing Digital Marketing In-House

In the past, agencies had the expertise in creative and advertising execution, but with AI marketing software, it seems experience is less important. If software can visualize customer personas, predict behavior based on clickpaths, and test content on the fly, wouldn’t it be better to bring it in-house and have one digital marketing specialist manage it? That would allow more funds for creative production and customer engagement events?

3. Cheap Social Media to Continue Reigning Supreme?

A few firms have given up on deep, technical content and instead are focusing on inexpensive social media channels. On the social media pages, Facebook for instance, they attempt to build a familiarity and emotional connection quickly through personal events, photos, and other emotional content.

Social media may have an advantage in real time immediacy, CRM, and in its ability to engage customers. With AI chat bots active, they may be able to fake real conversation and keep the prospect engaged.

Social influencers continue to grow in force with many companies buying their editorial favor in print on in video.

Without substance and emotion however, such campaigns might fall flat on their face.  This video indicates how substance is interpreted by consumers.

4. The Role of Data, Predictive Analytics and Testing

The future of digital marketing will be in data, big data and small data. We’ll use analytics to infer customer profiles, pain points and predict their future behavior. Digital marketers are already doing this.

With such insight, agencies in Toronto will grow their traffic, engagement, impact along with digital sales and revenue growth.
The question of web design and UX design is uncertain as well. Google is vying to host the Internet with its AMP project technology. Google’s pre-processing of everything online for speed is a very real possibility. Google is committed to AMP.  Bigger pipes for bandwidth hasn’t really solved the slow web.

5. Digital Advertising Goes Everywhere

Growth in digital advertising is phenomenal. According to Adage.com, digital advertising grew 22% to surpass TV advertising revenue to 72 Billion dollars. Why the change? They say its data and insights that give digital a huge, growing advantage.

Former outdoor billboards are being converted to large digital displays. Digital displays are in use in offices, subways, trains, planes, elevators and bus stops. They will find themselves increasingly on retail shelves and packaging displays, and of course integrated into television ads.

6. Integrated Cross-Channel Marketing

Digital will be integrated online and offline. Print, TV, Radio, social media, web advertising, ppc advertising, apps and more will all enter the funnel. And new digital software will be able to track all customer activity and attribute its contribution to revenue. AI marketing solutions such as Alberta.ai will actually integrate them and properly attribute which multichannel efforts succeed.

7. Fewer Jobs in Digital Marketing

Is it safe to build a career in digital marketing? The future is cloudy. New artificial intelligence marketing software is already performing the work of digital marketing staff, from ppc campaign managers, to content creators, to email specialists.

AI is the biggest forecasted change. It follows on the heels of marketing automation which many Toronto companies have already adopted.

8. Artificial Intelligence Marketing Solutions

The new AI marketing software will increasingly do everything a digital marketing agency asks of it. It will test and modify content, alter ppc ads, modify email content to optimize ROI.

Forecasts are that AI will replace millions of low level digital marketing workers. Although only 40% or so believe it is a valid technology, the truth is that it is already in use and performing well. Within the 5 years, AI will be deeply ingrained in digital marketing departments in Toronto, NYC, Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, London, Berlin, Paris, and Beijing.

9. New Marketing Networks

No one could have foreseen that Taboola would become such a powerful force in digital advertising. That tells us that when some companies monopolize a market, new solutions must be found. The cost and limited reach of Facebook and Google make additional ad and marketing networks attractive. We can expect new ones to appear.

10. Mobile Reigns Grows Relentlessly

The rising prevelance of mobile devices along with their improving screen technology and processors means they will surpass desktop computers in usage. More users will view websites, ads, and social pages via these small hi-res screens where presentation of your value proposition takes place.

More local information will be served up to these mobile users and the GPS or geo-targeting will dictate whose web presence gets viewed and what is displayed. We’re already seeing this in the retail and real estate space.

A lot of our budgets are going to mobile app development and that will continue to weigh on digital marketing performance.

11. Personalizaton of Content

Since geo location is known, clickpaths can be quickly assessed, and customers profiles are known, digital marketers are serving up content specially customized for them. Content personalization increases engagement and helps move customers closer to purchase.

12. Youtube and Video – Could it be More Than Video Galleries?

Youtube’s never stops. Google has never tried to evolve the Youtube page and turn it into a form of blog. It is capable of being much more than a video gallery. And corporations neglect Youtube terribly. Could 2018 be the year they finally take it seriously?

13. SEO Never Stops Producing

Google still handles 2 Trillion searches per year because people keep looking for info. More of the traffic will go to the top 3 rankings sites listed, so being very good at search engine optimization will create more visitors, brand visibility and revenue.

Semantics will still play a role in SEO, in fact, it will increase in importance as RankBrain tries to look well beyond the obvious to find the true high qualiity signals.

14. Content Marketing

The rise of content marketing seems to never end. And rightly so, customers love good content and it’s the best way to pave the customer journey and build an impressive brand.

But we’re seeing resistance to the tidal wave of content, just like we resist and ignore email spam. Although content will get better (thanks to AI), less of it will get to its intended target. PPC, email and SEO will be forced to push more of it through to audiences, making it more like push marketing.

Digital Marketing in Toronto

Toronto is a rising star in the digital technology world. A booming GTA  and rosy Canadian economic forecast and a great trade deal with the biggest economy in the world makes Toronto look good. Add on a rosy forecast for the CAD USD exchange rate, and it might make sense to hire Toronto Marketing agency. Even digital marketing freelancers might prefer the new Silicon North.

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Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast – The Pros and Cons of Homebuying in 2017

When Is the Best Time to Buy a Home?

A Laser Clear View of Toronto Housing — 2017 to 2018

Spring 2017 is almost here in Toronto, and tens of thousands of homebuyers will make the decision to buy a home. Yet buyers are confused, not because it may be a housing bubble, but because they can’t picture the value clearly, perhaps in numbers.   

The question of whether to buy a home isn’t about seasons, and housing type, or even the neighbourhood. There’s more important factors to considers and you should weigh your pros and cons carefully.

But for some Toronto residents, do they even have a choice? We all have to live somewhere, and it doesn’t seem there’s enough homes to go around.

While Canada is suffering its worst ever performance in attracting foreign investment, foreign purchase of homes here has been high. Foreigners are desperate to park their money somewhere. With that, Vancouver, Kelowna, Toronto, Mississauga and even Montreal have seen their housing markets explode in price. Many of these properties sit idle and empty, waiting for a quick flip.




Yet our hyperactive housing market hides a big secret — our economy is not so hot.  If not for the US revival occuring now, you’d have to say Canada’s future is very bleak — hence the lack of investment. Foreign investors are giving Canada a big thumbs down.




Vancouver Danger Signals

When BC applied its foreign buyers tax, it effectively killed the housing market in Vancouver. And with Toronto booming and its prices continuing a rocketing pace, will the Ontario government take similar action? While TREB might describe the market as balanced, it is a precarious, bubble like one where an irreversible slide might grow to a crash. Is this really a good time to invest in Toronto homes? Let’s look further.

Screen Capture courtesy of Teranet and the National Bank of Canada

The Key Role of Foreign Buyers in Toronto Real Estate

Foreign money may well be the key to Toronto Real Estate Market in recent years. Canadian investment in US property has fallen dramatically because of the sagging loonie, and perhaps due to new border restrictions expected by the Trump government. Canadians will now only be able to afford to buy in Canada. And many are selling their US properties to cash out their windfall. With that, they’ll likely be competing for GTA homes.

With the loonie so cheap against the US dollar, properties in Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, and York Region look very inviting to Middle Eastern, Chinese and US buyers. Political and economic turmoil may well see foreign investors tune into Canada as a safe alternative to the US. Toronto real estate will be their first choice.

The Toronto Real Estate Board just reported another record month of sales on the Toronto MLS for January, and there is no sense or data to suggest condo and home prices won’t keep climbing.

8 Fundamentals of Rising Home Prices to Look for:

1. limited housing availability and people have to live somewhere
2. continued staunch refusal of homeowners to sell their properties
3. low mortgage rates rising only slightly
4. influx of foreign investment money from the Middle East, Russia, Germany and China
5. strong US economy set to spill over into Canada
6. high numbers of Millennials looking to buy their first home
7. condo rental prices are high with low availability meaning a sizble pool of potential buyers exists
8. immigation volume into Toronto is high thus soaking up rentals and creating more buyers from across the globe

The above fundamentals speak well of home prices in Toronto. As long as a US economic disaster doesn’t occur, the Toronto market looks okay. The question then becomes one of do you really want to buy vs rent? Can you afford repairs, taxes, and to commute to this location? Should you buy now so you can lock in at lower mortgage rates?

Worries on the Horizon

However, there is the negative side of the coin. Canadian debt loads are very high, bordering on crisis levels, and should interest rates rise, these same people may face foreclosure. If mortgage rates rise, few buyers will be able to buy at today’s prices. If prices are too high with a threat of a housing crash, fewer people will willingly take that big risk.

Screen Capture courtesy of Politiscope

The biggest factor for a housing crash or continued growth comes from the US. The repatriation of jobs and business investment back into the United States is the biggest news story of the last 3 decades but there’s worries Canada might be shut out.




Note: Vancouver’s Market has Stopped Rising but Hasn’t Crashed

If the US can carve away at its monstrous trade imbalances and bring back the American middle class, the effects on American wealth will be dramatic. We’ve all seen what this wealth has created in Dubai, China, and Mexico. When all that wealth returns to the US, it will spill over into the Toronto Real Estate market.

The Canadian economy, particularly Toronto’s is intimately tied to with the US, both parties would be devastated by a break in trade. But Donald Trump may have little intention of alienating Canada, even with Justin Trudeau at its helm. The biggest threat we face is Donald Trump’s dislike of Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau’s lack of sympathy and joy for the great American revival will gnaw at Trump’s government.  Canada may receive a weaker bilateral trade agreement, which Trudeau will have to negotiate. It could be much worse than the softwood trade has been.

The second biggest factor will be the lack of housing availability. Ontario’s governmental regulations on land development near Toronto is crippling growth. Its plan to intensify development in certain cities such as Markham, North York, and Mississauga will supercharge prices in those areas. Ontario’s high flying tax increases will further put upward pressure on house prices and make home ownership more costly.




Statscan reported job growth only in Ontario, with 20,000 new jobs. This followed on the heels of last month’s 74,000 new part time jobs. People working part time or with low wages can’t buy homes. The future lies with a growth in Canadian exports (the low loonie didn’t make that happen, likely because other countries are manipulating their currency downward for persistent advantage).

With demand continuing right through the winter, it’s hard to believe it won’t be a record spring for the Toronto market. The anticipation of the great American Revival will play increasingly on the psyche of hopeful buyers and those who would like higher paying jobs. It’s this anticipation that will have the greatest effect on where anyone will willingly purchase an average $600k to $1.5 million dollar condo or home.

It takes courage to buy a home, and courage should be built on a systematic pros and cons assessment of real estate investment.  I hope your analysis gives you the right outcome. If you’re looking to buy in the Toronto area, please visit my Toronto homes for sale page.

Further reading:

Forecasts of political intervention by Canada’s biggest banks: http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/canadas-biggest-bank-warns-of-possible-cooling-measures-coming-to-toronto-housing-market

Best time to buy a home: https://www.newhomesource.com/resourcecenter/articles/smart-time-to-buy-a-new-home

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US Home Prices 2018 – House Price Growth by City – Best Bets

US Home Prices — Case Schiller 2018 to 2020

2018 looks like it’s going to be a more stable period for home prices from Boston to Miami to Los Angeles. Limited residential property, stable employment picture, and rising mortgage rates should keep things in balance in 2018.

What’s dampening that price flame is that prices are too high for Millennials (thus powering up the rental property investment market) and high mortgage rates.

Home prices are anticipated to increase 3.9 percent and existing home sales are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent to 5.46 million homes. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5 percent due to higher expectations for inflationary pressure in the year ahead — Realtor.com Research





Case-Shiller reported a spate of very positive news regarding the state of the US economy and the housing outlook for 2017 to 2020.  Housing is boosted by positive indicators coming from two separate reports published on Trading Economics, include:houseconstruction

  • US housing starts rose to a 9 year high in October 2017
  • US consumer sentiment rose to a 6 month high
  • US durable good orders rose
  • Job vacancies to fall 500,000 by 2020
  • US GDP will rise 2 Trillion by 2020

From the chart below, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, building permits, housing starts, home sales, will rise slightly next year and significantly grow to higher levels in 2020. Home prices may rise another 10% by 2020 according to their forecast. Still a good time to look for houses for sale.

latest-case-schiller-predictions-2017

Case-Shiller also sees the Fed raising interest rates and that US inflation rate will rise. These estimates may not take into account the intent of the Trump government.  




And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.”  That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.

Overall, it’s a good report that has something for consumers and entrepreneurs and business.  Read the full forecast here.

The US housing market 2017 report is positive and this report from the Urban Land institute is positive too. Sure there are variables, especially in different regions and cities across the US, yet a lowered deficit sends a positive message to startups and small businesses that US businesses will have an easier time competing in the US. Looking to invest in rental income property in 2017?

Best Cities to Invest?

Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities 2017 to invest in rental property. In this chart with data from Realtor.com and Kiplinger, I’ve highlighted what might be the best cities to discuss with your real estate investment advisor. I’m not advising anything, just to point out the advantages of diversifying your investment portfolio to cities that are strong and ones that could become strong.

Cities such as Springfield MA, Sacramento CA, or Detroit might pay off in 2020 to 2025. For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?




Rank City Price Rise Sales Growth Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 8.41% 1.17% $700,000
2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 8.26% 1.26% $816,000
3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 7.36% 3.41% $370,000
4 Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA 7.18% 4.92% $305,000
5 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 6.90% 6.03% $530,000
6 Salt Lake City, UT 6.66% 4.67% $248,500
7 Portland-OR-Vancouver-WA 6.55% 5.02% $289,900
8 San Diego County, CA 6.47% 4.89% $460,000
9 Denver CO 6.41% 3.96% $302,000
10 Providence-RI Warwick, MA 6.31% 4.09% $224,575
11 Stockton-Lodi, CA 6.12% 4.01% $267,000
12 Tucson, AZ 6.10% 5.47% $160,000
13 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA 6.09% 6.32% $350,000
14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 5.94% 7.24% $205,000
15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5.93% 2.67% $180,000
16 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 5.77% 4.16% $140,000
17 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL. 5.69% 6.10% $170,000
18 Philadelphia, PA 5.54% 3.08% $252,800
19 Greensboro-High Point, NC 5.50% 3.56% $118,500
20 Bakersfield, CA 5.26% 4.49% $182,500
21 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 5.19% 5.35% $507,500
22 Richmond, VA 5.18% 2.57% $224,000
23 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 5.17% 6.22% $147,000
24 Provo-Orem, UT 5.16% 5.84% $229,950
25 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 5.06% 4.57% $193,700
26 Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 5.03% 3.61% $162,700
27 Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 5.00% 5.37% $192,000
28 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.98% 6.88% $276,000
29 Tulsa, OK 4.90% 4.01% $124,700
30 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 4.87% 3.11% $175,000
31 Nashville, TN 4.86% 4.41% $158,000
32 Tampa-St. Petes, FL 4.84% 5.10% $140,400
33 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 4.83% 3.14% $140,000
34 Spokane, WA 4.81% 3.95%
35 Jacksonville, FL 4.79% 7.03% $165,000
36 Boise City, ID 4.79% 5.28% $173,250
37 Colorado Springs, CO 4.77% 6.71% $221,450
38 Akron, OH 4.76% 1.90% $93,500
39 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH 4.75% 1.89% $88,500
40 Springfield, MA 4.74% 5.13% $188,000
41 Toledo, OH 4.72% 2.07% $98,800
42 Hartford, CT 4.68% 0.42% $220,000
43 Milwaukee, WI 4.65% 4.53% $165,000
44 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 4.64% 4.89% $119,950
45 Honolulu, HA 4.55% 3.76% $466,000
46 Virginia Beach-Norfolk,NC 4.44% 3.76% $230,000
47 New Haven-Milford, CT 4.39% 2.60% $117,000
48 Kansas City, MO KS 4.36% 2.66%
49 Charlotte, NC 4.32% 6.28% $138,000
50 Augusta-Richmond County, GA 4.28% 4.62%
51 Dayton, OH 4.25% 2.18% $63,000
52 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 4.23% 4.29% $63,000
53 Raleigh, NC 4.16% 7.55% $156,000
54 Pittsburgh, PA 4.13% 6.08% $157,000
55 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4.13% 5.09% $157,000
56 Minneapolis-St Paul, MN 4.08% 3.56% $222,700
57 Oklahoma City, OK 4.07% 4.18% $152,250
58 Houston, TX 4.01% 6.08% $162,500
59 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa. 3.99% 6.48% $375,000
60 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. 3.98% 4.17% $210,000
61 New Orleans-Metairie, LA 3.95% 5.94% $153,000
62 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 3.94% 4.02% $178,500
63 El Paso, TX 3.93% 2.85%
64 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA 3.92% 4.60% $385,000
65 Wichita, KS 3.89% 2.51%
66 Memphis, TN 3.80% 4.22% $128,000
67 Columbus, OH 3.78% 5.70% $119,950
68 Madison, WI. 3.75% 5.40% $244,000
69 Indianapolis, IN 3.72% 5.03% $114,450
70 Omaha, NB 3.70% 4.64% $123,550
71 Fresno, CA 3.65% 5.82% $210,000
72 Albuquerque, NM 3.62% 4.13% $129,000
73 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 3.57% 5.11% $85,000
74 Cleveland, OH 3.56% 4.69% $110,000
75 Austin-Round Rock, TX 3.50% 7.40% $225,000
76 St. Louis, Mo 3.46% 4.35% $89,900
77 Worcester, MA 3.45% 4.97% $225,000
78 Syracuse, NY 3.41% 2.55% $101,450
79 Columbia, SC 3.39% 3.56% $124,650
80 Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY 3.36% 2.08% $110,000
81 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3.29% 6.22% $128,494
82 Charleston, SC 3.27% 6.09% $199,000
83 Louisville, KY 3.24% 4.69% $117,000
84 Cincinnati, OH 3.18% 6.38% $122,499
85 Knoxville, TN 3.11% 6.27% $129,950
86 Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL 3.10% 8.23% $135,000
87 Rochester, NY 3.09% 6.27% $104,000
88 Allentown, PA 3.07% 3.00% $185,000
89 Little Rock, AK 2.97% 3.59% $177,000
90 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 2.97% 2.88% $276,753
91 Des Moines, IA 2.92% 4.32% $186,500
92 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 2.91% 5.41% $177,000
93 Baton Rouge, LA 2.87% 5.53% $178,750
94 Winston-Salem, NC 2.66% 5.08% $100,000
95 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 2.55% 8.95% $156,500
96 Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA 2.40% 6.62% $104,500
97 Jackson, MI 1.98% 9.44%
98 Chicago, IL 1.95% 2.27% $104,500
99 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 1.92% 2.56% $441,250
100 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 1.78% 3.51% $195,250
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com

US Real Estate Market 2017 to 2020

Take a good look at housing reports including separate ones for the New York real estate market outlook, Los Angeles real estate outlook and the San Francisco Real estate market as key indicators. Some pundits are suggesting California could see a less rosy outlook in the years ahead, but with continued low fuel prices, low interest rates, and eases in regulation at the Federal level, California should fare well economically.




From a report in the Pacific Coast Business Times, Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast is quoted as saying that economic indicators do not point to a recession this year or next.

Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame, said  The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it’s not running on fumes, he said.

Schiepp said “We really don’t have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don’t see any recession — none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them.” Schniepp spoke to an audience at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village LA, during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.

The prognosis for housing markets in 2018 is positive




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Is 2018 the right year to buy rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2018 including investing in real estate?

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