Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions to 2020

May 19, 2018. TREB reports another flat month in sales in the  Toronto housing market.  Sales shrank 1.2% and average home prices dropped only .2% during April.

If not for the Toronto Condo market, the Toronto housing market would be wheeled  into the critical care unit. What some are called a balanced market are twisting words about as far as they can be contorted.

You’ve seen the same discouraging stats for many months now. Nothing new. Perhaps it’s time to look at what’s wrong with this market and why Toronto housing crash is being uttered more and more.

Election 2018 – No Help for Housing?

The latest TREB report however was overshadowed by the bomb dropped by Doug Ford, leader of the PC party. Ford  suddenly recanted his promise to increase housing development and construction to help with the housing crisis. Voters were praying for relief and now it’s uncertain who will win this coming election. Political leadership in Ontario is a big negative for buyers and investors.

Since Toronto is slated to be a global supercity with a big increase in population, any land restrictions and red tape are serious issues. Right now buyers aren’t buying (house sales down 5%) and sellers aren’t selling (nowhere to go) so it’s a Mexican standoff during what should be a hot sales period.

It’s another indication that housing in Toronto is solely a political issue. Ontario’s election day is June 7th and this will put the Toronto housing conflict to rest either way. Yesterday’s news should be a boost for the Toronto condo market.




Toronto’s Insatiable Appetite for Money

Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market in the GTA seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices keep rising despite governments attempt to throttle it. On June 7th, Ontarians will get their chance to speak.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

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Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Please do share this report with anyone you know who might be buying or selling




Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Memories of a Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moved to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town meant speculators jumped on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring 2017 — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are still willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north.

What will the next few months bring for the housing market and economy in Toronto?  What are your predictions?

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Generating leads for Toronto realtors and realtors in Los Angeles, Toronto, San Diego, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill,  Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Francisco, San Jose, and many more cities acorss North America. I welcome enquiries from the UK too.

US Housing Market Predictions – Real Estate Market Forecast 2018

Real Estate and Housing Forecast 2018, 2019,  2020

May 18, 2018.  Your Epic report and forecast of the 2018/2019 US housing market offers facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.

With home prices and mortgage rates on the rise, compare what you’ll be paying vs future mortage rates. Shop for the lowest mortgage rate now.

In this updated report and forecast:

  1. March and April market update
  2. Hottest cities to buy
  3. NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
  4. Home price update and predictions
  5. US economic outlook – Tradingeconomics data
  6. Urban Land Institute panel discussion Video
  7. Freddie Mac Forecasts
  8. Jobs report and forecast
  9. Interest rates and mortgage rates
  10. Apartment rental prices and forecast

NAR reports that existing home sales grew in April, 1.1% which is well up from the 1.2% loss 12 months ago.  See the NAR charts below for others stats and which are the hottest markets for April.




Spring Market is Starting Strong

It’s an unusual spring market given the growing purchasing power of home buyers in low to mid market prices. That makes it a great market for those looking to sell their current home to trade up to a better one.

Hopefully you have a top notch strategy to sell your home for a higher price.  Sell it quick, but with a bidding war strategy.

Resale home transactions rose 1.1% in March showing clealy that buyers are hungry to buy.  However, listings have declined 7.2% and prices have risen 5.8% versus  last March.

It’s a sellers market and it will be for some time. If you’re hunting for houses for sale, you’d better have an advanced search strategy.

The dwindling numbers of homes for sale should push prices upward in Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Miami, Seattle, New York, and Houston . It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.




Please feel free to use this material on Linkedin and Facebook. It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who face a big decision about buying a home or condo in 2018 as home prices and mortgage rates rise.

NAR’s March Update

Homes sales have risen for 2 months straight, however they’re down 1.1% from same time last year.  Although prices haven’t hit the 2007 records, they are too high for most to afford even though wages have grown. Home prices are now running at double the average wage increase.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $250,400, up 5.8 percent from March 2017 ($236,600). March’s price increase marks the 73rd straight month of year-over-year gains — from NAR

Boston, New York, New Jersey

March existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 680,000, but are still 9.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $270,600, which is 3.3 percent above March 2017 – from NAR update.

Housing inventory is the most influential and persistent factor affecting home prices. Despite this, the media and some politicians blame speculation, building costs, interest and mortgage rates, cost of living, and mortgage rules. When the economy is good people want homes. Construction is strong but can’t keep up. Simple rule of supply vs demand is driving home prices.

Millennials still hopeful to buy a home in 2018

Looking for housing market predictions? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.

Please do share this post on Facebook!

Should you Buy or Rent?

We all want to own a home, but does it  make more sense to rent? If you can’t afford a home in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Dallas, renting may be the only option. Here’s a few blog posts I’ve written on the US rental housing market, apartment prices, and on buying vs renting.

Buy vs Rent in 2019

What’s Driving the California Housing Market?

Strong demand from an eager demographic and economy is clashing with local resident NIMBYism to create a volatile market. See the California housing report.

This completely updated EPIC United States Housing Report has market updates and predictions for 2018 to 2020, and other data to 2026.

NAR’s VP of research Paul Bishop, predicts sales will be flat for 2018.

One of the biggest challenges is going to be in certain high-cost parts of the country where they have high home prices, relatively high property taxes or high state income taxes, then that’s ultimately going to make the cost of owning a home more expensive.

In addition, renters may lose the incentive to buy a home in high-cost areas if they can’t use the mortgage interest deduction or the ability to deduct some of those other housing-related costs from their taxes. It’s focused mostly on the higher cost areas. It’s certainly something that everyone will be monitoring and how the housing market reacts in 2018 and 2019  — from a news release on DSnews.com.




In this post, you’ll discover the hottest city markets, zip codes, get economic, employment, finance, and housing projections to understand the key fundamentals driving home buying, rental investment, home construction, and the real estate markets in 2018/2019 to 2026. Read thoroughly if you’re considering buying a house this year.

What’s the story for summer of 2018? It has to be Texas and Michigan, however the overall picture is of a very good spring and summer for the housing market nationwide and going forward to 2026. Population growth in San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Phoenix continues strong.

The Complete Picture for 2018

Ready to choose your realtor and buy a house or condo this year? The outlook is really rosy! And how about investing in a rental income property for sustained passive income? This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.

Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing market are positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.

Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets: Latest Posts: Sacramento Housing MarketSan Francisco Housing Market |  Boston Real Estate Market 2018 | Florida Housing Forecast 2018 | Miami Housing Market |  Los Angeles Real Estate Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast  | Houston Real Estate Forecast | Seattle Housing Forecast

Apartment Rental Housing Market 2018

Are you considering buying homes for sale as an income investment?  With Apartment rent prices holding strong in 2018, it’s a solid investment strategy.

This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).

Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.

Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.

NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market

Housing Indicator Realtor.com® 2018 Forecast
Home price appreciation 3.2% increase
Mortgage rate Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end
Existing home sales 2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing
Housing starts 3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses
New home sales Growth of 7%
Home ownership rate Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally

Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the jobs picture, wage growth, investment, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.

The resistance to housing development is slowing. Conservatives are giving up amidst intense pressure by those facing outrageous housing shortages and skyrocketing rental prices.



Housing Shortages Won’t Ease

Although January’s sales were disappointing, it’s due to the severe shortage of housing. Demand is there and you’ll be competing against a hoard of buyers in 2018.  Corelogic expects 2018’s home prices will grow 4.3% by next December.  NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices this year. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.

The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’s tumbled. Listings fell dramatically in cental California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.

Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.

The US Economy 2018/2019

These stats from Trading Economics show positive fundamentals that will drive growth in the housing market, and in turn will bolster the economy, since new household consumer spending and housing investment is a key driver of the economy.

The tax cuts should help although the Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden stock market volatility.  Although some disincentives are present for home buying in certain price ranges, that will help keep the market balanced for 2018.

Home prices should begin rising again this late spring in FloridaNew York , Boston, San DiegoHouston, MiamiSeattle, Bay Area and the rest of  overheated California.

Buyers and sellers will enjoy the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture!

Scroll down to see the stats, video, and charts on the strongest cities where you might buy or invest. And when is the best time to buy a house?

Sharing is Good! Share the Insight with others on FB and Linkedin

A brief overview of January 2018 from NAR.

Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party

Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.




Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers,  all of whom are looking for houses for sale.

New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018

New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.

The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.

The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.

Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies

Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise.  With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale. This fall, new home sales have been brisk as reported by the Commerce Department.

Mortgage Rates on the Rise

15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.

Houses For Sale – Should You Buy or Sell in 2018?

The forecasts and predictions for housing markets in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, New York, Misami, Houston, Seattle, and San Diego etc. all suggest better times ahead.

See the post on the best cities to invest in real estate. Where can you find houses for sale with the best upside potential as a high return property investment?

Housing Experts Predictions and a Lot More

Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac.  The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.

Should buy or sell? See the specific market updates and predictions here: Los Angeles Real Estate forecast, San Francisco Bay Area forecast, New York Real Estate forecast, Boston Real Estate forecast, San Diego Real Estate forecast, Houston Texas Housing forecast, Seattle Real Estate forecast and the Miami Real Estate forecast. Bookmark this page for future monthly updates.




The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy.  Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.

Home Sales Expect to Rise Nationally

Freddie Mac Predicts strong sales driven by moderating prices nationally.

And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.

Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer

According to NAR’s latest report, San Francisco is again the hottest city, taking back the number one spot from San Jose. The hottest small city is Vallejo California, enjoying a spillover from the Bay Area market.  Investors and buyers will be hard pressed to find buying opportunities are.

Silicon Valley prices will pressure businesses to look to cheaper cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas, Houston, Austin, etc in 2018/2019.

Hottest Real Estate Markets in April 2018

Where are the hottest cities in the US? They’re all over this month and only 3 from California made the new top 20 list.

Screen Capture courtesy of Realtor.com

Hottest Cities for Investment Value

This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.

Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.

Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.





20 Hottest Housing Markets, January 2018 (Realtor.com) Rank (December) Rank Change Current Home Prices
San Francisco, CA 2 1 $1,249,000
San Jose, CA 1 -1 $875,000
Vallejo, CA 3 0 $390,000
Colorado Springs, CO 4 0 $270,000
Midland, TX 18 13 $265,000
San Diego, CA 6 0 $590,000
Santa Rosa, CA 7 1 $310,000
Sacramento, CA 8 2 $310,000
Denver, CO 11 2 $400,000
Stockton, CA 5 -5 $289,000
Modesto, CA 10 -1 $295,000
Dallas, TX 14 2 $360,000
Fresno, CA 12 -1 $205,000
Los Angeles, CA 16 2 $759,000
Columbus, OH 9 -6 $140,000
Chico, CA 29 13 $349,000
Oxnard, CA 21 4 $505,000
Santa Cruz, CA 27 9 $909,000
Detroit, MI 19 0 $349,000
Boise City, ID 26 6

Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For property investors or buyers with minimal cash, the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modesto, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale. As usual, California and Texas lead the way, however Michigan is looking good with the President’s intention to bring the auto industry and related jobs back to the US.

In some markets such as Californiahome prices have leveled off a little from their relentless climb. There is a slight risk of a burst housing bubble. Outside of major city markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.

Here Panelists from the Urban Land Institution discusses 2017 and the next two year outlook:




Here’s 8 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:

  1. home prices are appreciating and it’s a safe investment over the long term
  2. millennials need a home to raise their families
  3. rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
  4. flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
  5. real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
  6. the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
  7. foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
  8. bankrupt buyers are over their 7 year prohibition from the last recession and they can buy again.

Latest real estate market reports:

There are more renters now than in the last 30 years.

US homes are at their highest value ever

Foreign buyers buying record number of properties

Housing starts more than expected but not enough to fill demand

New Houses for sale dropped 3.4% in August

Resale houses for sale drops in August

How high can prices for houses for sale go in Southern California?

Read on to learn more about the economic fundamentals that suppport your purchase of real estate:

Buying and Selling — Is This the Right Time?

Are you selling your home? Speculation of a housing crash in Miami, State of FloridaLos Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, San Diego, San Jose, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets has more people listing their house or condo. Yet, the market is healthy, so there’s no emergency. Prices are stable so you won’t get much more by waiting.

Check out these other posts for homebuyers, investors, and realtors:

How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | Student Housing Investment | 10 Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price | Home Sellers Pricing Strategy | Better House Market Evaluation

Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2018 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month to 2024. The building is resuming now that the hurricanes and forest fires are over.

Will it be enough to support the economy? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units per month is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.

What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.

From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King

Will Los Angeles Lead the Nation in 2017 in Real Estate?

Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco.  The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at.  Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, and New York  have a promising outlook too.

Short list of positive factors to bolster US Housing Market :

  1. moderately rising mortgage rates
  2. president Trump’s new tax plan
  3. low risk of a housing bubble / crash for most cities
  4. millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
  5. a trend to government deregulation
  6. labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
  7. the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history

Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc.  Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead. Looking to put your house up for sale in 2018? Find a Realtor now.

Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics

These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.

 

Sharing is Good for your Social Health! 

Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!

Expert Predictions – US Housing 

1.  Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.

These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%.  — BusinessWire

2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.

Can you save $1700 on Auto Insurance in one year? How about $10,000 in 6 years? That’s a lot of cash. Find out and compare auto insurance quotes.

Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise

It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.

Car Insurance Quotes: Are you looking to save money for a down payment, save money with the lowest car insurance, find the lowest mortgage rate, or get a free market evaluation? Are you a realtor looking for US real estate leads?

 

If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crashHouse Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.

FRED – Home Prices

US Mortgage Rate Trends

US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases. With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.

mortgage-rates-trend

US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024

According to BLS the job outlook is positive. Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with 226,000 more than last year, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Residential building construction trended up by 5,000 jobs. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.

National Employment Growth Employment Growth Predictions, 2014–24 Median annual wage, 2014
2014 2024 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 150,539,000 160,328,000 9,788,900 6.5 $35,540

Job Growth by Occupation to 2026

2016 National Employment Matrix title and code (Chart data courtesy of BLS
Employment Change, 2016–26
Median annual wage 2016
2016 2026 Number Percent
Total, all occupations 156,063.80 167,582.30 11,518.60 7.4 $37,040
Personal care aides 2,016.10 2,793.80 777.6 38.6 $21,920
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 3,452.20 4,032.10 579.9 16.8 $19,440
Registered nurses 2,955.20 3,393.20 438.1 14.8 $68,450
Home health aides 911.5 1,342.70 431.2 47.3 $22,600
Software developers, applications 831.3 1,086.60 255.4 30.7 $100,080
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,384.60 2,621.20 236.5 9.9 $24,190
General and operations managers 2,263.10 2,468.30 205.2 9.1 $99,310
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 2,628.40 2,828.10 199.7 7.6 $25,980
Medical assistants 634.4 818.4 183.9 29 $31,540
Waiters and waitresses 2,600.50 2,783.00 182.5 7 $19,990
Nursing assistants 1,510.30 1,683.70 173.4 11.5 $26,590
Construction laborers 1,216.70 1,367.10 150.4 12.4 $33,430
Cooks, restaurant 1,231.90 1,377.20 145.3 11.8 $24,140
Accountants and auditors 1,397.70 1,537.60 139.9 10 $68,150
Market research analysts and marketing specialists 595.4 733.7 138.3 23.2 $62,560
Customer service representatives 2,784.50 2,920.80 136.3 4.9 $32,300
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers 1,197.90 1,333.10 135.2 11.3 $26,320
Medical secretaries 574.2 703.2 129 22.5 $33,730
Management analysts 806.4 921.6 115.2 14.3 $81,330
Maintenance and repair workers, general 1,432.60 1,545.10 112.5 7.9 $36,940
Teacher assistants 1,308.10 1,417.60 109.5 8.4 $25,410
Financial managers 580.4 689 108.6 18.7 $121,750
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 1,871.70 1,980.10 108.4 5.8 $41,340
Elementary school teachers, except special education 1,410.90 1,514.90 104.1 7.4 $55,800
Stock clerks and order fillers 2,008.60 2,109.60 100.9 5 $23,840
Teachers and instructors, all other 993.9 1,091.80 98 9.9 $30,110
Receptionists and information clerks 1,053.70 1,149.20 95.5 9.1 $27,920
Sales representatives, services, all other 983 1,077.90 94.9 9.7 $52,490
Business operations specialists, all other 1,023.90 1,114.30 90.3 8.8 $69,040
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 724.5 813.4 88.9 12.3 $44,090

US Housing Starts to 2024

New Housing starts and predictions to year 2024

This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.

 Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

30 year and 15 Year Mortgage rates Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca

Housing and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts 928 1,001 1,107 1,177 1,204 1,246 1,299
Single Family 620 647 712 784 842 900 962
Multifamily 308 355 395 393 362 346 337
New Single Family Sales 430 440 503 561 610 647 693
Existing Single-Family Home Sales 4,475 4,338 4,627 4,828 4,978 5,029 5,119
Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate 0.13% 0.13% 0.38% 0.63% 1.13% 1.88% 2.38%
90 day T Bill Rate 0.06% 0.03% 0.05% 0.32% 0.96% 1.71% 2.22%
Treasury Yields:
One Year Maturity 0.13% 0.12% 0.32% 0.61% 1.20% 2.41% 2.70%
Ten Year Maturity 2.35% 2.54% 2.14% 1.84% 2.38% 2.82% 3.22%
Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages 3.98% 4.17% 3.85% 3.65% 4.10% 4.54% 4.96%
ARMs 2.88% 3.17% 2.94% 2.87% 3.18% 3.62% 4.04%
Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.26% 3.51% 4.15% 4.98% 5.48%
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual

Chart stats courtesy of Nahb.com

Multifamily Home Starts - Millennial Buying Forecast

Save Money on Your Car Insurance

Saving on car might even cut your home insurance and give you more money for your home downpayment. Check now for the lowest quotes for car insurance Los Angeles, car insurance Boston, auto insurance San Francisco, auto insurance Denver, car insurance Toronto, and car insurance Chicago.

New Home Construction Prediction - Home Resales

Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.

f4 Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Existing homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.

Existing Home Sales to 2020 - Prediction to 2020 Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

Apartment Rental Forecast

Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.

Chart courtesy of RealPage

Cities with the most apartment construction include Dallas, Houston and Austin, reflecting Texas strong recovery. For more information, see this post on the best cities to buy real estate and best cities to live in and with the best job outlook.

Rental City Markets with Top Growth

Yardi released its winter national outlook report and forecasts a 2.5% increase.

There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years.

What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?

Are you a full time realtor looking to grow your prospects and leads?  Full service digital marketing is a bargain when it’s done well.   What’s the forecast and trends for the real estate sales in your region? If you’re in Vancouver, Toronto, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, and many other US centers, you’re probably grinning from ear to ear. But will you get your slice of that pie? Relying on real estate lead generation companies is another way you can go, however you have to pay forever and it’s questionable whether their leads are high quality.

My realtor marketing programs let you leverage the full mls listings with a powerful rets idx website, and capture more leads.  I’ve enjoyed serving clients in many housing markets including Toronto, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Montreal, New York, San Diego, Los Angeles, Florida, and San Francisco California.

Share this post on Facebook, Twitter, or Linkedin. It’s good to share!!

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Housing Market Predictions 2018: Ideal climate for best real estate investing.

Bookmark this page and return for further housing market forecasts, predictions, expert opinions and market data for most major US cities including New YorkLos Angeles, Palm Beach, Miami, For Lauderdale, Orlando, Boca Raton, Wellington, Delray Beach, Boyton Beach, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa,  Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Oshawa, Hamilton, Newmarket/Aurora, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Calgary, Kelowna, Mississauga, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, and other cities in the states of Florida, Texas, California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, New Mexico, Lousiana, Alabama, Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Boston Real Estate Market 2018 ⌂ Home Price Forecasts Boston MA Metro Newton Cambridge Quincy

Boston Real Estate Market 2018

The housing market in Metro Boston is back on track and looking healthy for 2018.  A number of factors are driving this recent growth. The prediction is that prices will rise in 2018 as they will in most of the US housing market.

The reason for the unusual late season surge is due to a big pent up demand from homebuyers and plenty of foreign real estate investors. Low mortgage rates, a strong economy, and the inventory of homes for sale is bolstering sales.

The 1,101 single-family detached homes sold in October 2017 was the fourth highest sales total on record for the month and was a 14.3 percent increase on the 963 homes sold in October 2016 – GBAR report.

Home prices in Boston in October according to GBAR rose 8.2% and condos rose 6.6%. According to Zillow, home prices are forecasted to climb another 5% in 2018.



Home prices grew 3.1% over the last 12 months in Metro Boston and 7% in the city of Boston itself. NAR reports the average home price was $633,000. Zillow has the average detached house price at $544,000.

As the graphic below shows, prices have been rising fast since 2013. The trend looks the same for the next 12 months based on housing constraints, demographics, and a positive economic forecast.




This chart below courtesy of Realtor.com shows home price growth in Boston’s largest communities.

Town Avg Home Prices Average Home Price 2014 Forecast Price end of 2108
Newton $895,200 $723,000 $978,000
Cambridge $669,200 $515,000 $746,000
Somerville $559,200 $427,000 $622,000
Boston $504,200 $406,000 $584,000
Quincy $393,600 $330,000 $431,000
Lynn $276,900 $227,000 $335,000
Lowell $240,800 $200,000 $267,000
Brockton $232,600 $186,000 $272,000
Lawrence $218,000 $176,000 $254,000





Take a good look at this heatmap of rental prices, and it might give you a good idea of home prices as well. The further you go from Downtown Boston, the more likely you are to find affordable homes. Be forwarned of Boston’s congested, time consuming commutes to which I can attest are as bad as any.

Boston Home Prices Not all That Severe Compared to California

Too many reports have it that Boston’s real estate is extremely unaffordable, but take a look at prices in Los Angeles, Washington DC, and New York. Compared to the Bay Area and LA Home prices, Boston’s real estate looks very good, even for buyers.

See what’s happening in southen US cities: Miami Real Estate forecast , San Diego Housing forecast, and the Houston Real Estate forecast for 2018. And compare to the super hot city of Seattle Wa. Who is going to win SB52? SuperBowl 2018 Predictions.

Investors might want to review properties outside of Boston city such as Easton, Lawrence, Worcester, Lynn, Salem, Stoughton, Framingham, Brockton, and Dedham. They’re nice communities and there’s plenty of property to build on.




However, it looks as though home prices are about to rise in Boston. So the questions: “should I buy a house?” or “should I sell my house” in Boston aren’t easy to answer. To help with a sell decision, see the post on selling tips and on best renovation for ROI.

What Supports the Boston area Economy?

Boston has a strong regional economy bolstered by transportation, tourism, financial services, and increasingly venture capital. Boston is becoming the Silicon Valley of the north with major influx of funding for startups in FinTech, MedTech and EduTech. Ultimately, all decisions to buy a home in Boston relate back to the US economy, US housing market, and the Massachusetts economy.

Boston’s Powerful Economic Engine

Boston’s economy is a power house yet restrictions on immigration will retard its output. Retiring babyboomers (although many are continuing to work) and a full employment situation mean growth will be constrained by a lack of workers, including skilled workers from other countries.

It’s good news for workers in other cities and states who need jobs. If you can find somewhere to live in Boston, you should have little trouble finding a great job.

Employment and Wages in Massachusetts Will Rise in 2018

Good news for workers is that wages are expected to grow 4% which will result in higher home prices. The unemployment rate will fall to 3.7%. Higher costs for wood will push home prices up further. A good strategy might be to buy soon because all factors point upward.

The real estate market et al, is expected to grow 2.2%. All of this will heat up the Boston market making housing more unaffordable. And just like California, workers will be willing to relocate further from the city to buy what they can afford. And Millennials do want to buy homes or condos with their growing wages.

Finding a Home In Boston’s Many Neighborhoods

If you’re thinking of a move to Boston, you’ll want to scout out the most affordable neighborhood for you and your family. Prices vary a great deal. NAR reports these recent prices:

Area Units For Sale Units For Rent Median
Listing Price
Back Bay 172 324 $1,499,000
Beacon Hill 70 98 $1,200,000
South End 186 226 $1,295,000
Back Bay East 85 148 $1,550,000
Downtown Boston 100 165 $1,125,000
Brook Farm 64 31 $619,000
Back Bay West 52 118 $1,399,000
North End 59 104 $849,000
Telegraph Hill 61 105 $679,000
Columbus 74 82 $1,380,000
Washington Park 26 23 $549,000
City Point 60 74 $839,000
Columbia Point 56 89 $569,900
Shawmut 70 79 $1,399,000





With the Boston housing market looking so good for 2018, and with employment/and economic strength so positive, it might be a no brainer to move to Massachusetts in 2018.

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Apartment Rentals in Toronto ⌂ Toronto Rental Market Prices Rise Fast – Toronto Mississauga Brampton North York GTA

Toronto Apartment Rental Prices Haven’t Dropped

While housing prices rise and hopeful homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver complain about the housing crisis apartment rental prices in Toronto.

And then there are those who don’t have the strength to get up off their sidewalk grates and jump for joy about the latest government program announced. What really is ridiculous about this is that our government is squeezing housing supply raising housing and apartment rental prices and then dressing themselves up as some kind of superhero.

Federal Government’s view of Millennial homelessness? Comfortable and hydrated

Amost on cue, jumping on the housing crisis easy button is our Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. With tired, worn out solutions pulled from history books, Trudeau is planning to spend $40 billion over ten years. He made the announcement during a recent photo shoot for media.



The forecast is for higher rents, more homeless people, more social problems, and stressed low wage Canadians occupied more with staying alive than helping boost Canada’s GDP. And our growing numbers of foreign students will wondering whether Canada’s lack of student housing should make them choose the US instead.

According to Covenant House, “over the course of the year, the number of young people who spend some time homeless in Canada is as many as 40,000, and on any given night, there may be up to 7,000[1] homeless youth.”

Toronto Apartment and Condo Prices Rise

Prices for apartment rentals in Toronto are heading toward heights you’d normally associate with New York, Los Angeles or the Bay Area of California. Yet, they have much higher wages.  The CMHC’s report on rental properties shows a drop to a 1.1% vacancy rate, and it’s likely a good portion of those available units are high priced. The average rental price has risen to $1,296 per month, up 4.5 %.

“The Toronto rental market is out of control,,,And because of that, rents are shooting through the roof. You go to a showing in some parts of town, you’re going to have a lineup around the block,” said Geordie Dent, executive director of the Federation of Metro Tenants Associations  (from CBC news report).

According to TREB, the average rent for one-bedroom condominium apartments in the TREB market area was up by
11.2% to $1,976 in Q3 2017 over the same period last year. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 7.7% over the same period to $2,607. You can view TREB’s chart below.




As a CBC report suggests, the big issue of 2018, 2019, 2020 elections could be housing affordability, particularly rent prices.  The CBC coverage is very good actually and acknowledges the good and the bad, however not much is said about how we got in this hot water.

 

Please Share this Post about our housing crisis. It’s a serious matter.

 

A lot of voters rent. This isn’t something Prime Minister Trudeau has addressed seriously during his whirlwind, jet setting, global tours, but it’s an issue that will be waiting for him every day he arrives at his office until the election. The forecast is for a very tight election race because the only ones who might vote for Trudeau are the status quo crowd. It’ll be an interesting year coming up in Canadian politics.



Screen Capture courtesy of CBC

It’s housing, immigration, political pandering, and economic incompetence that will see Justin Trudeau leave office. Support for wages, housing and homelessness will not be coming rom foreign multinationals doing business here.

Seriously, Landlords are the Cause of Low Vacancy and Homelessness?

Incredibly, the CMHC is blaming rental increases on rogue, profiteering landlords. That seems to completely discount their brand new report of record low vacancies.  Does CMHC read its own PR??

Landlords are not government agencies the last time we asked, and they are allowed to make a profit like the Canadian banks, Ontario Hydro, etc.

According to a CBC report, Trudeau’s national housing program will focus on chronic homelessness. The government says they will manage this professionally and reduce the number of homeless by 50% within the next 10 years. Of course, half of them will be dead within 10 years, so in theory, Trudeau’s vision is sound. Mark 1 for the PM.

Tip of the Iceberg: What Might Really be Coming in the Next Ten Years





The new Federal housing program plans to spend $2.2-billion on homelessness but will delay that until the spring of 2019. That means 2 more freezing cold winters for the homeless.

To understand the issue better, let’s remember that we’re in boom times right now. If the economy falls back into recession, the number of homeless and poverty level people falling through the cracks will rise. Will billions of tax dollars earmarked be enough to deal with a recession?

What have the governments of Ontario and Canada been doing to the housing industry?  Strangling it. Only by freeing up developers and land, and creating big tax incentives will the problem be eased.

Canada’s New Housing Plan?

The new national housing plan announced by Trudeau has these objectives:

  • Building 100,000 new affordable housing units
  • Repairing 300,000 affordable housing units
  • Cutting chronic homelessness by 50 per cent
  • Protecting 385,000 households from losing an affordable home
  • Providing 300,000 households with financial assistance through the Canada Housing Benefit
  • Removing 530,000 households from housing need

The proposed housing would built over 10 years likely won’t accommodate the homeless now, let alone those who will be entering that world over the next decade.

Housing is just one aspect of a miserable problem brought on by Free Trade and globablism. Even when housed, millions of Canadians still need food, medical services, and jobs. As more Canadians plunge into minimum wages, pushed out of the workforce by retirement, foreign competitiveness, factory automation and artificial intelligence software, the picture is not so nice.



If the Liberal governments had focused on building new houses, condos and multi-tenant buildings, the pro-housing response wouldn’t have been needed. Now Trudeau’s going to plow $40 billion tax payers dollars into another band aid solution.

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

It’s another sad act from a government that thinks it’s still 1980. Every decade, including the era of his father, we’ve had the same “government administration and red tape” programs that create crises and then pretend to solve them with expensive government programs.

Having no government at all would be cheaper and more effective. Not that we’re ungrateful for marijuana legalization and methadone clinics.

If government was out of the way, the Toronto housing market would heal and thrive. So would the real estate markets in Vancouver and Calgary.

Check out TREB’s 3rd Quarter Rental market report.

TREB REntal Market Report 3rd Quarter 2017 TREB 3rd Quarter 2017 Rental market report courtesy of Trebhome.com




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Vancouver Housing Market Forecast 2018 ⌂ Richmond Burnaby City of Vancouver Surrey Richmond BC

Vancouver Real Estate Market 2018 and 2019

Prices were up and sales were up, and listings are down in the greater Vancouver housing market last year.

GVREB reported that the MLS® HPI composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver
finished up 15.9% at $1,050,300 compared to December 2016. Home listings rose 44% over 2016, and sales to homes ratios hit a whopping 14% for detached homes, 38.8% for townhomes, and 59.6% for condominiums in greater Vancouver.

While there’s much talk about the depressing effects of Federal increases in interest rates and stress tests, it remains to be seen if it has any impact on the market, since those affected are unlikely to qualify to buy Vancouver’s high home prices anyway.

The December home market sunk by a whopping 28% from November’s totals and this will hardly spur new home development. It’s likely price pressure will return later in 2018. In fact, Phil Soper, President of Royal Lepage brokerage says Royal LePage predicts prices will rise 5% to 6% to $1.3 million on average across all home types in Greater Vancouver.




Just as in the Toronto real estate market, the condo market is where the focus is. That’s due to prices and the fed’s new stress test mortgage rules. With everyone bidding on lower priced condos in both cities, we should see big price increases, especially as borrowers hunt for new mortgage financing. Demand can disappear for a while, but it will return because so many people need a place to live.

Richmond and New Westminster bucked the downward trend with price growth of 2%. Richmond, Squamish, Whistler, Coquitlam, Burnaby and New Westminster also saw gains in apartment/condo prices in December.

December also saw the lowest level of home listings. The 20% decline is scary, making a 2018 housing forecast for Vancouver difficult.

Valiantly, Vancouver home builders are building multi-tenant buildings yet it looks like a losing battle. They issued permits for 263 units for all of Vancouver in October. It’s a market that’s run out of gas but the prices haven’t declined as governments had hoped.

Are you looking for good opportunities for rental income property? Or just wondering when the best time to sell your home in greater Vancouver? Take a look at the best best renovation ideas and plan your selling strategy.




The Vancouver housing market is reflective of a strong BC and Canadian economy and the outlook for spring 2018 is positive too. As the King of unaffordability, Vancouver is suffering from a crushed housing market, big immigration, increased global trade, growing poverty and stagnant wages. The monthly stats send the same message each time.

This same situation exists in the Toronto housing market which is enjoying a stronger fall season as well. In fact, a few are sensing the beginnings of continued housing boom after a weak late winter 2018 season.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 35,993 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2017, a 9.9% decrease from the 39,943 sales recorded in 2016, and a 15% decrease over the 42,326 residential sales in 2015. — from GVREB 2017 Year Report.




Vancouver remains perhaps the most unaffordable city in North America based on home price vs income. With new mortgage rules coming in 3 weeks, more Vancouverites will find themslves stuck in the rental market which is also not getting any better. Ask any post secondary student about housing.

The sales to listing ratio for the all important condomnium market was an astonishing 68%, up 7% since September. Cheap condos are hot, and going for way beyond what they’re actually worth.

Check out Realtor Steve Saretski’s November report and this key revealing graphic that foretells of 2018 and 2019 markets:

Maple Ridge and Port Coquitlam had big prices increases of 3.8% and 4.2% price growth in apartments. Single family houses in Squamish grew 3% in price this last month.

Share this report on Facebook. Sharing is good. People need more perspective because what’s being done in the Vancouver market is not working.

Given the fate of the Liberals, the NDP government may not be too eager to go the market killing route. However, the new plan being proffered by the Gregor Robertson’s city government, may be the thing I’ve commented on many times – that governments start economic and housing crashes, not the markets themselves.

Robertson is quoted as complaining about Vancouver’s amazing prosperity as “hit us like a ton of bricks.”  Those aren’t the kinds of words investors and homebuyers want to hear.

But should a local mayor be fiddling with strong global and national economic forces? Is he way overmatched, just like Wynne in Ontario?

One outrageous goal for Robertson may be to restrict ownership of Vancouver real estate by non residents. Seriously, in this era of open trade, he is actually considering it. Maybe Robertson will opt out of all trade deals and cross border business too since that just fuels demand for real estate?



It could be BC voters have learned that despite terribly high prices, that the BC economy is more important. And the strong Canadian economic forecast will push house prices higher. The solution is big investment in housing not in meddlesome government actions. When a politician fusses with administrative red tape, he’s telling us a lot.

The Need is for More Housing

Breaking News: PM Justin Trudeau has just announced a program to bring in one million new immigrants over the next 3 years. How many will choose Vancouver?  The influx will almost certainly impact Vancouver’s housing availability. Most newcomers are to come from Asia. Many immigrants are already here as students and there’s no housing for them.



House and Condo Stats in November

Sales in Vancouver were up 7% from September and up 35% from last October. Prices rose .5% over September and  12% over October 2016. Buyers have more million dollar homes (up 14%) at an average price of $1.6 million and a DOM of 41 days. Vancouver condos / townhouses prices 14%) in October. The sales to active listings ratio was an incredible 67% in October. Prices rise when that ratio surpasses 20%.

Experts believe rising mortgage rates and more restrictive stress tests will deflate the market. Fewer middle class earners will be able to qualify. That will put more pressure on the Vancouver rental market which is approaching zero vacancy rate. Incredibly, housing starts are down  and that will put upward pressure on the resale market.

BCREA in its 4th quarter report, forecast home sales might decline 10.4% to 91,700 units in 2018, after an expected 8.8%. A record 112,209 unit sales were recorded in 2016.  But these drops in sales are just drops in financial transactions. Prices of condos and houses aren’t falling.




It would be difficult to rationalize lower prices given a strong, growing economy and a lack of housing in Vancouver.

It’s All About Condos in Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, and Richmond

Demand for places to live and for investment properties is being funneled into the Greater Vancouver condominium market.

As of the first half of this year, HPO had received registrations for 1,788 new Vancouver condos, down from 2,488 units at the same time in 2016 — from a report in the Vancouver Sun.

Homes for sale scarcity combined with eager buyers, means demand is being focused on condos, townhouses and apartments. 3043 property sales were recorded in August 2017 which was 2.3% increase over July’s numbers. And it represented a 22% increase over August 2016 sales.




Condo Sales Driving Vancouver’s Market

While sales of detached homes dropped in August 2017 compared to July sales, and compared to August 2016 sales, Vancouver condos are in hot demand.  More than 4200 condos and townhouses were listed for sale in August. The decreased availability and rising prices are putting big pressure on International students studying in Vancouver.  UBC has 6000 students on their housing waitlist. Huge investment opportunity in foreign student housing.

Are you an investor? The August 2017 sales report shows townhouse/condo/apartment prices are rising fastest in Pitt Meadows, Squamish, Port Coquitlam, Burnaby East and Whistler. Mapleridge saw a big increase in apartment prices likely because the average price is only $252,000.

REGBV’s August 2017 report shows home and condo prices are rising. Any home for sale in Metro Vancouver between $350k and $750k are still subject to multiple offers. The big change is in the number of Vancouver area homes for sale which plummeted 19.2% since last month. Overall, the number of properties for sale dropped 4.2% since last month.

Check out the Calgary housing forecast and the Toronto housing Market for comparison.

REBGV President Jill Oudil stated the detached home market has achieved a balanced state and that buyers have more homes to choose from. That may contradict the reality that the volume of homes available for sale has plummeted. The truth might be that there are fewer buyers of homes above $750,000 which comprises most of the homes in Metro Vancouver. It’s a split market like Toronto.

The Federal Government has just raised the prime lending rate to 1% and hinted at further rate increases, and this will likely cool demand for higher end homes. The demand in Vancouver is still present, and the buyer target is condominiums.

Vancouver is host to tens of thousands of foreign students studying here, and they have an impact on condo prices. Currently companies such as CIBT specialize in student housing investment.  They purchase properties such as hotels to fill this big demand in a Vancouver housing market that is near to a zero vacancy rate. Check out the student housing investment opportunity yourself. The forecast here is for more demand.

Vancouver’s Housing Forecast Remains Positive

The last 8 years have been a real awakening for the city of Vancouver and for the rest of BC.  BC is now is perhaps the hottest province economically in Canada. This has spurred tremendous construction, entrepreneurial, and employment opportunities.  The demand for housing speaks for itself.

The BCREA reports that housing starts next year will jump dramatically. However, is 2,000 more units sufficient to quell the overheated market for rentals and buyers?

Screen Capture Courtesy of BCREA

This new tax, good for the BC government, may squash employment growth as Asian buyers look to live and buy elsewhere. Although this is a downer for Vancouver, it’s brightening the forecast for Calgary and theToronto housing market, where new investment is predicted to grow. Judging by the number of people visiting my site looking for info on Toronto, the demand is changing.




Post tax implementation: The average composite price for a Vancouver home was $938,000 in July which is still 33% higher than one year ago. The BC government has its worked cut out for it. The BC provincial government was already collecting $1.6 Billion dollars in taxes and the new tax will create a ridiculous opportunity for government spending in 2017. Do you cheer or jeer?

Here’s a look at the historical price trends in Vancouver contrasted with Toronto pirces. You can see the Toronto real estate forecast here.

The total numbers for July and August of 2017 haven’t been reported but we’d have to guess at $10 Billion for the two months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Metro Vancouver totalled 2,489 in August 2016, a decline of 26 per cent compared to the 3,362 sales in August 2015; 10.2% fewer than the 2,771 sales in August 2014; and 1% less than the 2,514 sales in August 2013. August 2016 sales also represent a 22.8% decline compared to last month’s sales. –  From the latest market report from REBGV on Sept 2, 2016.

The forecast is for fewer sales and perhaps lower prices, yet because of the foreign buyers tax, it might look more precipitous right now than it actually will be.

bcreasales2017f

Regarding Vancouver condos, it looks like demand has slackened for cheaper accommodation and apartments and condos. REGBV said “Sales of apartment properties reached 1,602 in July 2016, a decrease of 7.3 per cent compared to the 1,729 sales in July 2015. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 27.4 per cent from July 2015 to $510,600.”

BC Economic Outlook

Although employment growth and GDP will moderate, BC residents and homebuyers will have much more disposable income. These facts plus an expected 5.5% rise in retail sales will definitely perk the attention of businesses everywhere.

bcreaeconomy2017f

Running out of Land in Greater Vancouver

BC lower mainland real estate is doing well, in stark contrast with Northern BC which saw its sales volume drop 8% and total sales volume drop by 25% compared to January 2015. It will be much worse in August and September.

The Greater Vancouver area saw its sales volume rise 73% to $2,788,099,000.  That was actually overshadowed by the 101% rise in sales volume in the Fraser Valley year over year in January.  The valley had a growth of $427 Million. Chilliwack and Powell River saw significant gains too, as affordability issues are forcing more BC residents out into the burbs.  The condo market in Vancouver showed a shocking increase of 50% year over year.

What it means for BC is a rare moment of sunshine where it is leading Canada in prosperity. Add that to BC’s more progressive and optimistic culture, and you’ve got an exciting mix. We can only hope it will last for a few more years before the Conservative wet blanket kills the party.

Vancouver Island enjoyed 50% growth in sales volume and the city of Victoria grew in sales to $260 Million in January. The south Okanagan region had a surprising growth of 44% in sales volume as well. It’s hard to argue that the Okanagan has not benefited from real estate and migration.

mapoflowermainland

Yet, this market isn’t the hottest on record for BC, which was even more heated in 2005. Should this non-record high real estate market be snuffed out?

While politicians are jumping to suppress sales in BC, no one can argue that the deluge of real estate investment money is creating unheard of opportunity in Vancouver. The province is drawing migrants from Alberta and Saskatchewan who are looking for jobs at a time when Alberta is facing its biggest crisis ever. The worst hasn’t even hit Alberta yet, as oil sunk to touch $25 a barrel last week.

As far as the shadow flipping controversy is concerned, some believe the privacy issue in transactions will ensure the practice of flipping will continue unabated.  Others suggest the inflow of Chinese funds into BC will be terminated by the Chinese government and price rises  would then abate.

What is Shadow Flipping?

The Vancouver real estate forecast is glowing and is not headed upward, and Vancouver’s economic resilience has been tested by low commodity prices. Still, these good times never last so BC residents should revel in their wealth of opportunity. It’s a good time to be an entrepreneur in Vancouver.




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Are you a Vancouver real estate agent selling condos in Vancouver or detached homes struggling with online exposure? You’ve come to the right place. Have a good look at the best realtor digital marketing program available anywhere.

* BCREA is the professional association for over 19,000 REALTORS® in British Columbia Canada. BCREA focuses on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Student Housing Investment REITS – Investment Companies and Opportunities

Solving the Student Housing Crunch at a Different Level

If you went to college 10 to 30 years ago, you might be a little envious of the luxury accommodations today’s generations might enjoy — if they can afford it.

The college dorms of the past are aging,  and post secondary instituions don’t necessarily see a profitable future for themselves in dorm management. Traditionally, dorms were built and maintained solely to house those in their freshman year.

Today, huge student housing communities are being built to accommodate hundreds of thousands of students regardless of when they’ll graduate. That’s market expansion.




The header graphic above is from American College Campus’s U Club on Woodward in Tallahasse Florida. Kind of jolts your understanding of student poverty and housing desperation.

Under Pressure: Students Left out in the Cold

2nd, 3rd and 4th year students were pushed off campus to find accommodation as they may. Yet, there are few cities in the US, UK, and Canada where housing availability isn’t an issue. Housing scarcity is the new plague of governments, local and national and not many solutions are appearing.

However, large housing communities might ease it and provide investors with a great housing investment  opportunity. The issue with off campus housing need is that it’s tough to resolve with small multi-tenant buildings and large houses. And while investment companies and REITS are coming to help with the general student housing challenge, it is the luxury student housing market that’s drawing the most attention.

What are Student Housing REITS and Why Invest in Them?

Graphic courtesy of urbanyvr.com

Student housing REITs (real estate investment trusts) build, own, and manage student housing facilities. Most housing units are either on-campus or within close proximity to campus. REIT investments offer a good ROI while ensuring the investor doesn’t have to be involved in housing management and administration.

Those who invest in rental income properties know about the effort, time, and risk associated with managing individual properties to students.

These firms may have substantial financial resources and expertise in this field and are in a position to leverage the student housing markets in cities even further.




REITs have become a preferred developers for private-public partnerships, due to their reliability and innovative financing structures which match up with the interests of the universities and colleges.

The artists rendering on the right is of CIBT’s new GEC community project in Surrey BC, a suburb of Vancouver, costing $27 million. Visit urbanyvr.com for more info on that project.

High Quality Student Housing Communities

A better solution is in building new built for purpose condominium projects where hundreds of students can live with convenience and safety so they can focus on their studies. And then there’s the luxury market.

Demand has been high for this type of modern student living, yet the recent housing crisis has racheted it up considerably. And foreign students now invading the best cities in North America, particularly Vancouver Canada , is pushing demand over the top. Definitely the cream of the crop for investors.

High Demand + Low Availability + High Income = Record Profits

With demand high, rental prices skyrocketing, and wealthy foreign families looking to give their kids a good North American education, real estate investment professionals are looking at a high yield investment opportunity. What was once considered a risky investment is now the apple of investor’s eye.

Since these project involve big money, big planning, and huge logistics with materials, people and services, investment firms have moved into the space. These are private investments and educational housing REITS that are worth having a look at.

Student Housing Investment Funds are Hot

Investment funds in the billions are pouring into this space and that should further reinforce investment opportunities, if you choose well. But for the risk-averse, student housing investment is considered high yield at present and recession proof.

Photo Courtesy of studenthotel.ca

Some of these large investment firms or REITS target only large scale projects — schools with huge student populations or locations adjacent to many colleges and universities. CIBT in Vancouver BC Canada is one such company.

Their student housing projects focus on wealthy foreign students and they’ve positioned their properties and developments in key areas of Richmond and Vancouver in BC. There are at least 9 colleges and universities including the UBC, SFU, and Langara College nearby which positions them for maximum continuous demand.

CIBT has bought and converted properties such as former hotels however their focus is really on building new large scale communities.

That’s about as good as it gets in the student housing investment market.

Other REITS or niche investment firms you may investigate:

Education Realty Trust Inc. (EDR)  whose portfolio consists of interest in over 70 communities with over 40,000 beds. Forecasts are positive for EDR whose stock is climbing of recent.

American Campus Communities –  American Campus Communities (ACC) is the nation’s largest developer, owner and manager of high-quality student housing communities. The company’s senior management have partiicipted in the development, acquisition or management of more than 350 student housing communities consisting of more than 222,000 beds.

 

APTS Preferred Apartment Communities, Inc. http://pacapts.com/ is a real estate investment trust externally managed by Preferred Apartment Advisors, LLC. The firm invests in real estate markets of the United States. It primarily acquires and operates multifamily apartment properties.

CIBT in Vancouver  – CIBT Education Group Inc. is one of the largest education and student housing investment companies in Canada with a total student enrollment of 15,000. Its focus is the global education market, launched in 1994. The company is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and U.S OTCQX International. CIBT owns recruitment centres and corporate offices in 45 locations in and outside Canada.

There are rumors of 9% returns in some cases, but let’s not carried away with the hype. Overall, for an investor, and for those parents who are concerned about adequate, functional accommodation for their kids heading to college, these companies are solving a problem.

Take a further look at investment in student housing in the Vancouver area which has a situation more intense than most US cities. The lack of available land in Vancouver and high immigration levels has create a zero availability crisis.

 

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Canadian Economic Forecast 2018: IMF and OECD Gives Canadian Economy Two Thumbs Up!

The Canadian Economic Forecast

The International Monetary Fund says Canada is the leading G7 Country

How odd is it in 2018, that a country on the verge of trade wars, real estate collapse in its major cities, flat wage growth, mediocre job growth, merciless consumer debt, and a sagging national housing market would be cited as the G7’s darling child?

In a new report just released, the IMF likes Canada’s economic situation and they’ve forecasted some lofty economic growth rates. Quite a rosy prediction for 2018 and beyond

Their confidence could impact the Toronto real estate forecast, | Calgary Housing Market Forecast and the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2018. And it could end the talk of a real estate market crash and begin to attract foreign investment into Canada once again.

Growth of 3.6% to 3.7% Predicted

For entrepreneurs, mortgage agents, realtors, manufacturers, retailers, builders, renovators, homebuyers and banks, this is a positive signal about growth ahead. Trump is looking to renegotiate NAFTA which doesn’t mean shutting out Canada.  The negative media hype is ridiculous. Even with renegotiation, Canadian small business has a good opportunity. If Trump has an issue, it’s likely with the multinationals who continue to rule everything including politics.

Despite sluggish growth for its major trading partner, the IMF believes Canada is poised for growth of 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2018. That has to sound good for job hunters, real estate agents, mortgage agents, house buyers, and business development managers alike.




Underpinning all the optimism is the IMF’s belief in a broad-based global economic upswing. Does this mean the world has adjusted to US trade protectionism, or is Trump actaully unable to do anything about the US situation? The IMF points to Trump’s inability to get new tax laws passed and to the level of optimism globally. With Trump’s new tax bill passed, the US stock market could boom for at least one more year, and that’s good news for the Canadian economy.

This might come as quite a surprise to most of us who haven’t heard such a rosy forecast for the world as a whole. However, much of the uncertainty of housing and stock markets was of a global nature and it may be subsiding.

An earlier report from the OECD set Canada’s growth rate at 3.2% for 2018. Strangely, although Canada is believed to be the leader, overall global growth is set for 3.7%, a half percent above Canada’s forecast rate of growth.

The OECD is also calling on Canada to ease foreign investment restrictions and ease the Toronto/Vancouver housing crisis. Given that Canada is mired in the lowest levels of foreign investment ever, it would be healthy for the Vancouver and Toronto housing and condo markets along with the TSX stock market if such investment was allowed to flow.




The OECD also cites Canada’s lack of productivity as a big concern, however it appears the country has been able to make use of its assets to generate growth.

A BNN poll found that most viewers believe tax rates and the NAFTA deal are the key worries about the Canadian economy.

Canada’s Economic Facts

  • growth in 2nd quarter of 2017 was 5%
  • household spending was up 4.6% in June (YoY)
  • job growth was 186,000 over the first half of 2017
  • exports expanded 9.6%
  • central bank only expected to raise interest rate slightly
  • national trade deficit increased to $3.4 billion in August

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Toronto Housing Market Report November 2016

Toronto Home Prices Soar Again

The Toronto Real Estate Board has released their November 2016 MLS sales report which includes home prices in the Greater Toronto market. Sales are up 16.5% from last November, and home prices rose by 22.7% YoY. It’s a scary time for investors, and perhaps a tougher time for millennial aged couples trying to buy their first home.

This may be the right time to sell your home. Who will market your home?  From SEO, to Content marketing and paid advertising, and aerial drone video, digital marketing can start bidding wars.

Buyers, are you still thinking the stock market is better than real estate? See this post for more perspective on the Toronto Real Estate market and 2017 forecast.




Is 2017 the best year to buy rental income property?  Find out more about the best real estate investments in 2017 including investments in real estate.

The TREB November market update shows Home prices in Mississauga were also up 20.8% overall. While most eyes are glued to the price of detached homes in Toronto, the sales of apartment condos continue an even more torrid pace, up 27.9% in sales volume, perhaps revealing a continuing strong condo apartment rental investment market similar to the one burning up San Franscisco and the Bay Area of California. Not surprisingly, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, and Aurora leads the GTA price rise parade. These 3 top performers had detached home price rises near or above 30% YoY. Richmond Hill home prices hit an astonishing $1.3 Million. Brampton lead the way with a 25% price growth for townhouses.




trebchartnovemberpriceindex

Mississauga Real Estate Brokers

Ready to Sell? My client Damir Strk is a licensed Realtor and Mortgage Broker with extensive experience across the GTA including downtown Toronto condos. He specializes in Mississauga, and can also represent you very well whether you’re in York Region, Toronto, and Oakville and Milton. He’s a great choice for the biggest financial decision of your life. Damir has 16 years experience in all housing types, including Mississauga’s many condo developments, very familiar with properties in Mississauga’s many communities, and can help advise you on mortgage financing. Contact Damir now at: (905) 828-3434.

damir

Real Estate Investors

Investors from Germany, China and Persia may find the market perfect for rental income investment. Buyers within Canada are finding the market too far out of reach. The extreme prices could make it more likely local and the provincial government may attempt to intervene without addressing the issues of lack of available land. The places to grow legislation and the OMB will be put under more intense scrutiny.

“Home buying activity remained strong across all market segments in November. However, many would-be home buyers continued to be frustrated by the lack of listings, as annual sales growth once again outstripped growth in new listings. Seller’s market conditions translated into robust rates of price growth,” said Mr. Cerqua Toronto Real Estate Board President.




See more on Mississauga homes prices and on the Toronto real estate market predictions.

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Real Estate Investors Huge Impact on the Economy

The Net Benefit of Real Estate Investors – $9 Billion!

A joint survey by Bigger Pockets and Memphis Invest revealed some fascinating insight into the attitudes of real estate investors and their impact on the US economy. They concluded in their 2014 report, that 28 million real estate investors have a $9 Billion+ effect on the economy. The survey results are displayed in the infographic below.

This really is timely and newsworthy. The numbers in 2017 might be even higher. Add investment in new multi-unit rental property and commercial real estate and the numbers are astonishing. If money begins leaving the stock market and pours into the housing market, how will this affect your own best investment picks?





In the past ten years, investment has been focused on electronic technology and software and with that, the US economy hasn’t fared well. Housing is something the US has always done well and it looks like the general population is about to get wind of this fact.

The spin off investment in furniture, appliances, home servicing, renovation, new school construction, new retail establishments, and more creates jobs in the US and further investment within the US. Is Donald Trump ready to capitalize on this basic and proven economic process? Quoted in a Bloomberg report, Robert Shiller says the US could be in for boomtimes and that means lots of new developments and higher home prices.

From Los Angeles to New York to San Francisco, a healthy housing market could soon boom and you’ll want to discover the best ZIP codes for real estate.

Perhaps this is the signal we need to put more investment dollars into real property, whether for buying as an income property investment or in new homes to live in. This infographic offers some excellent insight into investor profiles, risk tolerance, rental price predictions, and more.

Infographic courtesy of Bigger Pockets and Memphis Invest

Trump: Responding to the Housing Crisis

It’s hard to argue that there is a housing crisis across the country. Even in Canada, with its limitless supply of land, there is a housing crisis too. So we know there is and was something very negative that has been suppressing investment in real estate in North America. This could be about to end with the Trump era.

It’s still uncertain as to what he intends to do, and he probably hasn’t decided what to do. It will all play out in real time. Investors, governments, builders, renovators, realtors, and mortgage agents will have learn, react and plan on their feet. So, it’s an exciting time where everyone will have their values and understanding of the economy, housing market and real estate investment wisdom challenged.




There will be some big failures in the coming years too as Trump further drains the swamp. Old and young investors alike will find the new, clean swimming pond frighteningly responsive and hazardous with all-new predators and regulators. They all want a piece of the housing pie too.

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Is 2018 the right year to buy rental income property? Which are the cities with the best return: LA, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Phoenix, Denver, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Vancouver, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Bernardino, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Washington, Atlanta, Nashville, Sunnyvale, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Oceanside, Carlsbad, La Jolla, Escondido, Riverside, Hartford, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Indianapolis, Columbus, Fort Worth, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, Miami Beach, and Honolulu.

US Home Prices 2018 – House Price Growth by City – Best Bets

US Home Prices — Case Schiller 2018 to 2020

2018 looks like it’s going to be a more stable period for home prices from Boston to Miami to Los Angeles. Limited residential property, stable employment picture, and rising mortgage rates should keep things in balance in 2018.

What’s dampening that price flame is that prices are too high for Millennials (thus powering up the rental property investment market) and high mortgage rates.

Home prices are anticipated to increase 3.9 percent and existing home sales are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent to 5.46 million homes. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5 percent due to higher expectations for inflationary pressure in the year ahead — Realtor.com Research





Case-Shiller reported a spate of very positive news regarding the state of the US economy and the housing outlook for 2017 to 2020.  Housing is boosted by positive indicators coming from two separate reports published on Trading Economics, include:houseconstruction

  • US housing starts rose to a 9 year high in October 2017
  • US consumer sentiment rose to a 6 month high
  • US durable good orders rose
  • Job vacancies to fall 500,000 by 2020
  • US GDP will rise 2 Trillion by 2020

From the chart below, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, building permits, housing starts, home sales, will rise slightly next year and significantly grow to higher levels in 2020. Home prices may rise another 10% by 2020 according to their forecast. Still a good time to look for houses for sale.

latest-case-schiller-predictions-2017

Case-Shiller also sees the Fed raising interest rates and that US inflation rate will rise. These estimates may not take into account the intent of the Trump government.  




And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.”  That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.

Overall, it’s a good report that has something for consumers and entrepreneurs and business.  Read the full forecast here.

The US housing market 2017 report is positive and this report from the Urban Land institute is positive too. Sure there are variables, especially in different regions and cities across the US, yet a lowered deficit sends a positive message to startups and small businesses that US businesses will have an easier time competing in the US. Looking to invest in rental income property in 2017?

Best Cities to Invest?

Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities 2017 to invest in rental property. In this chart with data from Realtor.com and Kiplinger, I’ve highlighted what might be the best cities to discuss with your real estate investment advisor. I’m not advising anything, just to point out the advantages of diversifying your investment portfolio to cities that are strong and ones that could become strong.

Cities such as Springfield MA, Sacramento CA, or Detroit might pay off in 2020 to 2025. For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?




Rank City Price Rise Sales Growth Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 8.41% 1.17% $700,000
2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 8.26% 1.26% $816,000
3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 7.36% 3.41% $370,000
4 Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA 7.18% 4.92% $305,000
5 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 6.90% 6.03% $530,000
6 Salt Lake City, UT 6.66% 4.67% $248,500
7 Portland-OR-Vancouver-WA 6.55% 5.02% $289,900
8 San Diego County, CA 6.47% 4.89% $460,000
9 Denver CO 6.41% 3.96% $302,000
10 Providence-RI Warwick, MA 6.31% 4.09% $224,575
11 Stockton-Lodi, CA 6.12% 4.01% $267,000
12 Tucson, AZ 6.10% 5.47% $160,000
13 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA 6.09% 6.32% $350,000
14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 5.94% 7.24% $205,000
15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5.93% 2.67% $180,000
16 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 5.77% 4.16% $140,000
17 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL. 5.69% 6.10% $170,000
18 Philadelphia, PA 5.54% 3.08% $252,800
19 Greensboro-High Point, NC 5.50% 3.56% $118,500
20 Bakersfield, CA 5.26% 4.49% $182,500
21 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 5.19% 5.35% $507,500
22 Richmond, VA 5.18% 2.57% $224,000
23 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 5.17% 6.22% $147,000
24 Provo-Orem, UT 5.16% 5.84% $229,950
25 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 5.06% 4.57% $193,700
26 Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 5.03% 3.61% $162,700
27 Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 5.00% 5.37% $192,000
28 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.98% 6.88% $276,000
29 Tulsa, OK 4.90% 4.01% $124,700
30 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 4.87% 3.11% $175,000
31 Nashville, TN 4.86% 4.41% $158,000
32 Tampa-St. Petes, FL 4.84% 5.10% $140,400
33 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 4.83% 3.14% $140,000
34 Spokane, WA 4.81% 3.95%
35 Jacksonville, FL 4.79% 7.03% $165,000
36 Boise City, ID 4.79% 5.28% $173,250
37 Colorado Springs, CO 4.77% 6.71% $221,450
38 Akron, OH 4.76% 1.90% $93,500
39 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH 4.75% 1.89% $88,500
40 Springfield, MA 4.74% 5.13% $188,000
41 Toledo, OH 4.72% 2.07% $98,800
42 Hartford, CT 4.68% 0.42% $220,000
43 Milwaukee, WI 4.65% 4.53% $165,000
44 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 4.64% 4.89% $119,950
45 Honolulu, HA 4.55% 3.76% $466,000
46 Virginia Beach-Norfolk,NC 4.44% 3.76% $230,000
47 New Haven-Milford, CT 4.39% 2.60% $117,000
48 Kansas City, MO KS 4.36% 2.66%
49 Charlotte, NC 4.32% 6.28% $138,000
50 Augusta-Richmond County, GA 4.28% 4.62%
51 Dayton, OH 4.25% 2.18% $63,000
52 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 4.23% 4.29% $63,000
53 Raleigh, NC 4.16% 7.55% $156,000
54 Pittsburgh, PA 4.13% 6.08% $157,000
55 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4.13% 5.09% $157,000
56 Minneapolis-St Paul, MN 4.08% 3.56% $222,700
57 Oklahoma City, OK 4.07% 4.18% $152,250
58 Houston, TX 4.01% 6.08% $162,500
59 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa. 3.99% 6.48% $375,000
60 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. 3.98% 4.17% $210,000
61 New Orleans-Metairie, LA 3.95% 5.94% $153,000
62 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 3.94% 4.02% $178,500
63 El Paso, TX 3.93% 2.85%
64 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA 3.92% 4.60% $385,000
65 Wichita, KS 3.89% 2.51%
66 Memphis, TN 3.80% 4.22% $128,000
67 Columbus, OH 3.78% 5.70% $119,950
68 Madison, WI. 3.75% 5.40% $244,000
69 Indianapolis, IN 3.72% 5.03% $114,450
70 Omaha, NB 3.70% 4.64% $123,550
71 Fresno, CA 3.65% 5.82% $210,000
72 Albuquerque, NM 3.62% 4.13% $129,000
73 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 3.57% 5.11% $85,000
74 Cleveland, OH 3.56% 4.69% $110,000
75 Austin-Round Rock, TX 3.50% 7.40% $225,000
76 St. Louis, Mo 3.46% 4.35% $89,900
77 Worcester, MA 3.45% 4.97% $225,000
78 Syracuse, NY 3.41% 2.55% $101,450
79 Columbia, SC 3.39% 3.56% $124,650
80 Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY 3.36% 2.08% $110,000
81 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3.29% 6.22% $128,494
82 Charleston, SC 3.27% 6.09% $199,000
83 Louisville, KY 3.24% 4.69% $117,000
84 Cincinnati, OH 3.18% 6.38% $122,499
85 Knoxville, TN 3.11% 6.27% $129,950
86 Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL 3.10% 8.23% $135,000
87 Rochester, NY 3.09% 6.27% $104,000
88 Allentown, PA 3.07% 3.00% $185,000
89 Little Rock, AK 2.97% 3.59% $177,000
90 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 2.97% 2.88% $276,753
91 Des Moines, IA 2.92% 4.32% $186,500
92 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 2.91% 5.41% $177,000
93 Baton Rouge, LA 2.87% 5.53% $178,750
94 Winston-Salem, NC 2.66% 5.08% $100,000
95 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 2.55% 8.95% $156,500
96 Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA 2.40% 6.62% $104,500
97 Jackson, MI 1.98% 9.44%
98 Chicago, IL 1.95% 2.27% $104,500
99 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 1.92% 2.56% $441,250
100 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 1.78% 3.51% $195,250
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com

US Real Estate Market 2017 to 2020

Take a good look at housing reports including separate ones for the New York real estate market outlook, Los Angeles real estate outlook and the San Francisco Real estate market as key indicators. Some pundits are suggesting California could see a less rosy outlook in the years ahead, but with continued low fuel prices, low interest rates, and eases in regulation at the Federal level, California should fare well economically.




From a report in the Pacific Coast Business Times, Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast is quoted as saying that economic indicators do not point to a recession this year or next.

Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame, said  The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it’s not running on fumes, he said.

Schiepp said “We really don’t have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don’t see any recession — none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them.” Schniepp spoke to an audience at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village LA, during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.

The prognosis for housing markets in 2018 is positive




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Is 2018 the right year to buy rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2018 including investing in real estate?

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